Prediction Markets for Political Betting

[IveBeenBit]

I would like to bet on the mid-term elections in the USA. Are there any long-running legit prediction markets that are somewhat liquid where I can do this?

I haven't paid attention to the Bitcoin gambling space for a while, so I am out of touch with the scene. How can I vet the site that I bet on? There seem to be a few Bitcoin betting review sites, but they all have affiliate links, so it looks like they will shill for just about anyone that gives them an affiliate deal.

[Mirae]

I would like to bet on the mid-term elections in the USA. Are there any long-running legit prediction markets that are somewhat liquid where I can do this?

I haven't paid attention to the Bitcoin gambling space for a while, so I am out of touch with the scene. How can I vet the site that I bet on? There seem to be a few Bitcoin betting review sites, but they all have affiliate links, so it looks like they will shill for just about anyone that gives them an affiliate deal.

this is the only one i am aware of right now
https://nitrogensports.eu/sport/specials/us-midterm-elections
Nitrogensports in itself is very trusted and always pays out

and then theres
https://www.onehash.com/category/special_events/politics
but their betting is mutual, so that means the odds change depending on peoples bets there

[avikz]

Apart from the above mentioned website, I know one more website that accepts bitcoins for betting on literally anything in the world. I have seen few politics related betting options as well in that website,

https://www.betmoose.com/

Betting link of US presidential election: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-trump-still-be-president-in-2019-3842

Hope this helps!

[leowonderful]

I know OneHash provides a place for political betting, but volume on the site seems pretty low currently as well as historically; I'm pretty sure betmoose is much more popular than onehash for political betting, as I recall the volume was relatively high during the last American election.

OneHash has a relatively long Bitcointalk thread, and the account for OneHash is actually in the green for DT trust, so there aren't any major issues with the site. Generally speaking, most crypto gambling sites have a thread somewhere in the Gambling section, and you'll be able to find any positive or negative reports there. I use the format "(Site Name) Bitcointalk" on google, and I can usually find a main thread for the site in question using this.

[IveBeenBit]

Thanks for the replies. I wound up putting in a bet on BetMoose because they had the volume to handle my wager.

On One Hash, the volume was so low, that my bet would crush their odds.

Nitrogen only had bets on US Senate Races, which I am not interested in.

Good luck, everyone!

[adaseb]

Basically depending on what type of political betting it is, there will be many options as the time gets near.

I remember during the Hilliary and Trump election, the forum was filled with people wanting to take private bets and people wanting to act as escrow for these dealings. That and there was almost a bunch of crypto and non-crypto betting website which were playing the odds on who would win.

If you actually bet on Trump the day prior or the hours leading up to his victory, you had a good risk/reward ratio because I remember at the time, Hilliary was in the lead and most people were betting on her. However we all saw what quick turn that took.

I also remember that the markets went crazy when Trump won the election. Mostly the Crypto markets were dead but all of a sudden the forex and stock indicies went crazy, and I basically could tell right then and there who won.

[OneHash]

Morning!

Thank you for brining us into the subject. As mentioned, OneHash offers the political (and events in general) betting options.

Since we operate as a mutual betting, the odds can change over time, but the trends make them more attractive than in regular bookies most of the time.
Also, the experience shows us, that if 1 big player comes in, he brings others to the table who want to bet with/against him
Trump-Clinton 26.5 BTC in pool  https://www.onehash.com/event/special_events/usa_presidential_election_2016/12867

Are there any events you'd like to see and bet on? Write in this thread or click "suggest event" on our website.

Good day and big wins!
Eric from OneHash
 

[Hydrogen]

There are mainstream gambling sites like 5dimes.eu that accept bitcoin deposits and cater to US residents. (Just to give you another option and different perspective on things)

There used to be a bitcoin website that allowed users to create events to bet for or against but that site seems to have died awhile ago. A lot of attempts at being innovative or progressive in crypto that seemed like good ideas, for whatever reason, didn't pan out.

Having used bitcoin gambling sites since 2011 or 2012, there have definitely been a lot of them that folded. It could be #worth it to stick to tested and tried sites that have been in operation for awhile.

[Supercrypt]

I think it is too risky. Gambling should not be something that much emotionally invested in. We are voting for someone and than also gambling to hope that same person (or bet on the other person if you believe whoever wins) would win. Gambling should never be really based on politics or anything remotely emotionally invested thing. We are talking about having a person run a country for some years that would definitely make some part of a country really upset and sad which you expect them to also put gambling on top of that.

I guess we should keep it based on gambling casino games or if its sportsbook type thing than let it be just "sports"book and nothing further. Any real life decisions to be made should not become part of a gambling topic people would bet on.

[avikz]

I think it is too risky. Gambling should not be something that much emotionally invested in. We are voting for someone and than also gambling to hope that same person (or bet on the other person if you believe whoever wins) would win. Gambling should never be really based on politics or anything remotely emotionally invested thing. We are talking about having a person run a country for some years that would definitely make some part of a country really upset and sad which you expect them to also put gambling on top of that.

I guess we should keep it based on gambling casino games or if its sportsbook type thing than let it be just "sports"book and nothing further. Any real life decisions to be made should not become part of a gambling topic people would bet on.

I too agree with you but for the below mentioned betting scenario, I can bet my fortune against Trump!

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-trump-still-be-president-in-2019-3842

Trump is not going to make it to White House in 2019 again!

[slaman29]

I've seen some weird lines on Bitcoinrush, but they put it under specials or special events. You can always look online for these kind of bets, but mostly you'll find it at UK sportsbooks (fiat only). I remember Betfair always always does election odds, and you can sometimes find them on Fairlay too (which I guess works like Onehash above).

Last 2 elections, if you bet on "unexpected outcomes" like Brexit and Trump, you would make a lot of money

[Ranly123]

I would like to bet on the mid-term elections in the USA. Are there any long-running legit prediction markets that are somewhat liquid where I can do this?

I haven't paid attention to the Bitcoin gambling space for a while, so I am out of touch with the scene. How can I vet the site that I bet on? There seem to be a few Bitcoin betting review sites, but they all have affiliate links, so it looks like they will shill for just about anyone that gives them an affiliate deal.

I don't know anything about politics betting specially a US politics elections. Maybe I just see what other people say about this and try to have interest in this kind of betting.

[el kaka22]

I think it is too risky. Gambling should not be something that much emotionally invested in. We are voting for someone and than also gambling to hope that same person (or bet on the other person if you believe whoever wins) would win. Gambling should never be really based on politics or anything remotely emotionally invested thing. We are talking about having a person run a country for some years that would definitely make some part of a country really upset and sad which you expect them to also put gambling on top of that.

I guess we should keep it based on gambling casino games or if its sportsbook type thing than let it be just "sports"book and nothing further. Any real life decisions to be made should not become part of a gambling topic people would bet on.

I pretty much understand what you are driving at, but in the real sense, believe you me, when it comes to political betting sometimes, you may actually see a lot of glaring things for you to know the likelihood of what will be happening.

Yes, there is a lot of emotion already attached to who you want to vote for and betting sometimes can even hype it up, but in some cases, and like avikz said, I will actually be glad to place some bet like the one he mentioned, knowing that the chances will most definitely be slim for Trump.

It is good though that the OP settled with betmoose, this is the first time I would be hearing that platform even exists.

[prtty2gal2]

I think it is too risky. Gambling should not be something that much emotionally invested in. We are voting for someone and than also gambling to hope that same person (or bet on the other person if you believe whoever wins) would win. Gambling should never be really based on politics or anything remotely emotionally invested thing. We are talking about having a person run a country for some years that would definitely make some part of a country really upset and sad which you expect them to also put gambling on top of that.

I guess we should keep it based on gambling casino games or if its sportsbook type thing than let it be just "sports"book and nothing further. Any real life decisions to be made should not become part of a gambling topic people would bet on.

I too agree with you but for the below mentioned betting scenario, I can bet my fortune against Trump!

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-trump-still-be-president-in-2019-3842

Trump is not going to make it to White House in 2019 again!

I could not just stop laughing when I saw this. Honestly, I will be so happy to share the bet with you in this case, considering the rate at which trump is really stepping on a lot of toes and the citizens of the country, both black and white in a way, but one way or the other, sometimes, even if you want to make things right, trust me, not everyone will like it.

But I feel this dude is not just diplomatic enough to handle some situations without eyebrows being raised, and i feel he just talks too much for a president. I would not bet my fortune against him though, but in the real betting world, I would actually bet hugely against him.

[Ucy]

This would be interesting. I have heard a lot about political predictions especially on augur blockchain. I guess politics will be easy to predict.
 How would you handle a situation where a lot of people are making the right predictions? Or are there more complicated ways of handling the whole thing?

[omonuyak]

In my country  offline betting companies are coming up and in this political season I sow many betting on who will be the next president.  I have not see any one online though!

[sunsilk]

I have not see any one online though!

I have seen this kind of betting on Onehash and if you'll try to re-read the whole thread it was suggest above. Just proceed to the link given and you'll see those bets that are related to politics. But as for checking now, I haven't seen one as there's no available to bet with but as soon as there's an available, you can bet with it.

Here's the link;

OneHash

[Juggy777]

In my country  offline betting companies are coming up and in this political season I sow many betting on who will be the next president.  I have not see any one online though!

Hey even I have yet to see a site which is offering odds on US political elections, honestly such a bet would be very tricky given the unpredictability of USA voters. I feel currently Trump is a leading candidate for now, but when it comes down to voting we can’t really predict how it’ll go. I feel the voters are divided on him which is helping him, but will it be enough for him to claim a victory only time will tell.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

This is truly an untapped market by blockchain related gamble houses. I would also love to bet on our presidential election coming up in 4days time 16th February 2019 but can't find any house offering that service maybe they haven't considered Africa countries due to the high level of election rigging and most election isn't free and fair.

[imstillthebest]

Hey even I have yet to see a site which is offering odds on US political elections, honestly such a bet would be very tricky .  when it comes down to voting we can’t really predict how it’ll go.

sure it is tricky because every people have a different minds . they think differently and some already have thier favoritism  . some are voting because they are bieng paid  . election campaign do also play's a major role for getting adequate number of votes   .  anyway , this is my first time to hear a gambling about politicians  . its bizzare but its so cool at the same time  .  people are such genius and verry creative  because they involve everything they see in gambling  .