Bitcoin Forum

We have seen this in 2013 in bitcoin. Please look at the bitcoin in 2013.

in 2013 bitcoin has seen over $1000 and dropped in December of 2013. (Bear year began)

in 2017 bitcoin has seen over 18,000 and dropped in December 2017 ( Bear year began)

in 2014 Bitcoin dropped  more half of the price and never covered all-time high in 2014,

in 2018 Bitcoin dropped more than half of the price and still did not come back to where it was in 2018.

in 2015 Bitcoin has seen the lowest price until October 2016. ( Bitcoin has seen $200, A significant drop from $1045.)

in 2019 Bitcoin probably will see the lowest price until October 2017. ( $5000 )


In 2013, December Bitcoin has touched $1045 and went to $694 the same month but, in January 2014 bitcoin has seen $824.

in 2017 December Bitcoin has seen $18.000 and went to $14,000 the same month but, in January 2018 bitcoin has seen $17,000.

EXACTLY SAME THING HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!

according to my prediction bitcoin will keep losing value until October 2019. It is because according to history bitcoin always and always begins to rise in October and in November months and hits the all-time high in DECEMBER

Probably we will see, $5000 in March or in April 2019, and October or November of 2019 bitcoin will begin to rise. Please look at what happen bitcoin in 2013, 2014, and 2015, 2016.

All bull years begins in January of years and ends December months. The reason bitcoin failed this much is because the bitcoin investors know that bitcoin is coming to bear season ( "cashing out season")

There is no any effect about bitcoin news etc. in 2017, there were so many news about the bitcoin but bitcoin never ever effected from those news.

in 2020 a Bitcoin can be 100K or 250K. I don't know, but I know is Bitcoin moves with the percentage.

in 2013 from $13 bitcoin has risen almost 80  ($13x80= $1045) times that year and reached $1045.

in 2017 from $1000 bitcoin has risen almost 20  ($1000 x 20= $20000) times that year and reach $20,000

As a result, bitcoin will rise again, and once it rises it will be sky high.



How many people knew about bitcoin in 2013 and how many people know about bitcoin in 2017.  

WE HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE IN 2013 AND IN 2016, BITCOIN WILL RISE AGAIN, BECAUSE of HISTORY ALWAYS REPEATS ITSELF.

This has been the most volatile cryptocurrency years till date. And the most active, in contrast with 2018 where bitcoin has hit really done anything.


At time of writing this post, October is at its end, and we are slipping slightly lower. This year has been very dynamic for bitcoin and old rules or chart history are not bound to repeat itself.
I am looking forward to Jan. 2019 for some positive growth.

Not totally true. Back in 2013 or 2014, the price doubled during the spring-summer period. Your post is giving few true facts but the conclusion still stays a speculation, and we all have our own.
I just hope you're wrong and we will see a significant move before October. ::)

History never repeats. It might rhyme, but it never repeats. This is why fractal analysis is viewed as useless voodoo by most experienced traders. New traders love it because it's visually intuitive. But over time, they find out history never actually repeats, and that predictive TA isn't accurate.

If history does repeat, then we should get a strong bull trap soon that mirrors the April-June 2014 period.

I completely disagree with your speculation because you have some wrong statements but mostly because you are not looking at the whole thing which is both similarities and "differences" between two time periods. you can't just find some similarities and then stick to them to force a certain conclusion that you like!

for example 2013 rise took about 2 months and was mostly a pump rather than a rise, mainly because of the control that Mt Gox had over the whole market and the fact that there practically was no other big exchanges. and as "pumps" go they always end badly.
in comparison 2017 rise took more than a year and even if you wanted to compare the two trends you can only compare the 2013 rise with the rise from $10k to $20k and say the drop should be down to $10k and then rise back from there!

as for the drop part, the drop of 2014 was because of the bubble AND a lot of other factors. the biggest ones were Mt Gox scam which was the biggest hit the market could take since as I said it controlled almost all the market. also the SilkRoad drama and a lot of other smaller negative factors against bitcoin.
in comparison 2018 drop is only because of the $20k bubble and the fact that speculators kept comparing the two scenarios with each other that convinced themselves it should be similar and did a panic sell.
if you compare two charts the current trend looks more like the bottom in 2015 @$220 with its perfect horizontal line.

I disagree with the rise speculation too. because that is also flawed. you are basically saying just because it has risen before after the drop it should rise again after this drop too! but that is wrong. the past rise after the drop does not guarantee the rise this time.

At least, OP is trying. In this market we don't have anything to look into other than what happened in the past during similar cycles, and while I agree that they don't offer any guarantees, there are some useful aspects to it.

Most of the newbies don't come further than the price will either go up or down (mostly up). Many even think this is the first time that Bitcoin is going through a correction like this and for that reason it's going to implode.

Everything better than the ignorant $50k before the end of the year newbies. They still don't know what the heck is going on, and probably never will. They would learn a lot by opening charts to look at historical cycles.......

Well this is just his speculation and I really think we should not get harsh on anything wrong he might have said because that is totally what he used to really know, Any many are simply looking at the past movement of bitcoin and comparing the movement with just that in mind, But Bitcoin price can always move regarding the demands and news it have whether it is a positive one or a negative one, no one can really predict it 100% accurate it would always have a inaccurate forecast of the movement, Well OP had just trying to put a good speculation and I really think that the year of 2020 can be a good set back for the price to make a new all-time high.

Bitcoin will rise regardless of what you think it will do based on past movements. Institutional presence is a factor to take into consideration, because where in the previous years it was largely a retail driven orgy, we're now marching towards a market with much more professional parties that are involved.

They value the $100 billion market cap, and it's no surprise that the main support is very close to that number, and will likely remain that.

Main support is around ~$5800 x 17.35 million circulating coins = ~$100 billion.

it is very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin but I am very happy with what you say, because you talk using data.
I am very fed up with people who say bitcoin will reach $ 50k at the end of the year, they talk without facts.

You can't just copy and paste one cycle onto the next one. This bear market was very different than the last one, including being quite a bit shorter. OP you are just copy and pasting the timeline from the last cycle onto the current cycle, that makes no sense, no cycle has been the same. So far this cycle is shorter so likely by October 2019 we'll be well into the next bull run for probably like half a year by then.

As what they have said it is hard to predict the market price, comparing the price in the past it is impossible to happen.
A lot of things happen and probably it won't happen again, just like what in cryptocurrency we don't know when the exact time bull run will happen. If I know, I won't tell to anyone and I'm sure I have a lot of profit. Just like that scenario, we must be thankful that bitcoin existed in 10 years as a digital currency.

Just because it has happened once doesn't really mean it will happen again. This "history repeats itself" is not true at all, we had so many things happen in history that is absent in today's world (thankfully) and this is one of them. Yes there is a chance that bitcoin will increase in price however it doesn't have to do it at all.

Bitcoin is improving every single year and just like the post says there is more people in bitcoin now than ever and this could make it a quicker return instead of waiting until November of next year. Also the price can't increase at the same rate again because the marketcap would go above the stock exchanges of the USA which is really unlikely for now to achieve in crypto world.

We are big but nothing close to that big. Stock exchanges have been around for decades and we have been here only for 10 years now.

The cycles might appear to be very similar but they're actually not. As always, the adage "history repeats itself" doesn't ring true in volatile markets such as bitcoin. You see, if it ever repeats itself, we would have expected or have predicted rightfully when will the next bull run be, but right now we're only coming up with biased guesses and 'guesstimates' as to when will the hysteria and FOMO begin again. As more and more people are participating in this open market, the harder it is for the whales to actually control it and make their moves similar to what happened a few years back.

Because of the halving of rewards, the bitcoin price must go up every 4 years, otherwise it's growth can be said to be halted and the failure/death of bitcoin is imminent. This is pure economics. You can see this happening every halving so far, and its a perfectly logical expectation for it to happen again in 2021. If the price does not respond in a positive way (significantly higher price than the previous ath in 2017) within a year of the next halving in 2020 expect total collapse.

This was repeated a thousand times already.

Bitcoin have a four-year cycle. We are in the worse year of the new cycle. Its a bear year, followed by a year of recovery, then the year of the halvening, and then the bull year.

We will see 20k again only in 2019. And in 2020 we might see 50k, due to the halvening.

Absolutely. Bitcoin prices usually move in such cycles of bull/bear markets.

I don't think this should be surprise anyone and more experienced speculators because this has happened before many times, including the 2013 bear market. It also happens quite frequently outside of the bitcoin realm, with bear and bull market sentiment affecting prices regularly in stock markets as well as real estate as well.

Since market sentiment is so low and bearish, we are seeing a period of dips and sluggishness in general, quite similar to the 2013 scenario. To me, I think that the recovery may take less time this time round due to the fact that bitcoin is more mature and institutional investors, but it will still take a while before bullish reversal actually happens. 2020's halving will be an interesting phase for the recovery of BTC for sure.

We will probably only see $6k for a 2019 high, 2020 probably $10k for a high, and 2021 well past $100k.

that only happened once, from 2014-2017. you make it sound like it's an established pattern. i'd certainly say people should temper bullish expectations, but i also think it's naive to assume things will play out exactly like the 2013 bubble.


you got a chart to support that theory?

The fundamentals in 2013 were insanely different and more pessimistic compared to 2018.

2013 was still a big mess exchanges wise. If you think it's bad now, well in 2013 it was still amateur hour big time, nowadays things are getting more profesional even tho there's still big question marks out there with tether and whatnot, but the main point is there isn't a big single point of failure exchanges wise like in the Gox days.

Also the scaling drama is over. Now we've got LN already live and being improved, we have Schnorr sigs on the pipeline and other cool stuff.

We have institutional money about to come in next month with Bakkt... in 2014 we had nothing to be honest, just the hardcore holders and smart people that knew the fundamentals of bitcoin make it a winner no matter what the ponzi fiat scheme that is being priced in is valued at.


This one I like:

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*7uM9e_TYLbohW_Q7FYSuxQ.png

Big gap on that channel.. adjust accordingly.

Looks pretty believable to me - the top line is the top of the next peak and the bottom line is the price after the crash. Something approximating this chart needs to happen for bitcoin's survival in my opinion. It's either going to continue much higher price floors every 4 years or it's going to totally collapse.

indeed. i'd say a capitulation wick into the $2000s or $3000s is totally possible. i wouldn't base anything on that "channel" though. it's only got two tags on the lower bound, and none on the upper bound, so it's really just a trendline that's never been tested. it also looks a lot different on a line chart vs bar or candlestick chart, due to price averaging on line charts.

Probably $20k for 2019 high, and well past $100k for 2020 high, then averaging around $50k in 2021.

100% agree to OP, I was pesimist and was laughing when I was seing posts like bitcoin will be 10K in 2018 year and etc, I couldn't imagine that but now I don't think so. Yeah, there is a high chance bitcoin will hit 100K and even more. There will be halving, it's one of the main reason to see rise, unprofitable mining can't exist + consider bitcoin's current price, it's highest one. Once it was 1000K, then become 20K, there is 20x growth, so hope at least therr will be 5x growth of 20K.

Are you saying there will be a major top at $20K? Why would that happen? Way too much time has passed for a double top to occur. There may be a small correction there like March 2017, but if we actually go to $20K, we're going much higher. The rally won't end there.

We can not make comparisons from years past with this year because we have many different situations, for example in the past years we had little demand and we did not have much pressure from governments and banks. bitcoin was ignored by many people, this year things are very different, there is a great pressure of governments and banks, see this case:

Bitcoin ATM Operator Coinsource Gets New York Regulator’s Green Light With ‘Bitlicense’ (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-atm-operator-coinsource-gets-new-york-regulators-green-light-with-bitlicense)

we are going in the direction of regulation, is different from the past years.

Given the direction of regulation, what do you see next halving 2020-2021 for prices?

in the context of bitcoin's growth, i don't think that's true. regulation has been ongoing for years. for example, new york's bitlicense was introduced in july 2014. in april 2014, the IRS released a memo defining virtual currency and stating how it's treated for tax purposes. the united state senate held hearings on bitcoin in november 2013. silk road was shut down by the FBI in october 2013.

you could have said all this regulatory attention made 2014 fundamentally different than 2011, when we had a brutal bear market. as it turned out, 2014 became the longest bear market to date and price fell 86% from top to bottom.

regulation might be ramping up even more now, but that's to be expected. exponential growth will inevitably have that effect. that doesn't make it impossible to compare to the previous cycles.

We got way ahead of the upper channel during the 2013 Gox peak, I don't know the % but definitely by a good amount. $20k is not so out of hand, we didn't go that out of the channel. So I think something similar to the opposite way could happen (going below the channel by a pretty big amount then eventually rebounding). What I mean is, it wouldn't be the end of the world re-testing $1200 again. Of course most people don't want that, but as a worst case scenario im mentally ready for that, it would just mean Bitcoin gets insanely undervalued again to anyone with 2 functional brain cells.

Unfortunately for the people like me that think 5 to 10 years into the future and just want to gather as much as possible for when it goes 6+ figures (and at that point you will not need to sell.. just buy anything you want with your coins), I doubt we'll get to enjoy such low prices again, there's too much bull pressure, at least the OTC market is on fire accumulating.

but the momentum is lost. rise and falls are not that different. when we are in the trend, for instance rising. the top of the peak is not predictable and it can go up as long as it has that momentum. as for drop, there is "resistance" or "friction" on the way down but as long as there is momentum it can go lower. in other words $1200 could have been possible if price didn't stop at $6000 for the past couple of months. now that it has stopped and has been stable there, that momentum is lost and now the trend has started reversing.

There's no momentum in either direction. We're in a contracting range, so there hasn't been a trend reversal. It could break in either direction. Whichever direction it breaks, there will be strong momentum because of all the volume exchanged during the last several months.

$1,200 is definitely possible if price breaks down from here.......it would bring the 2018 bear market in line with 2011. But I'd buy into the $3,000 area first and reassess later. There'd be a good chance we wouldn't see any lower than that.

well, of course I prefer bitcoin in 2017. when that was the time when cryptocurrency holders succeeded. well, even though at the moment, it still leaves an impression, I think it will happen again in 2019. well, this year there is a lot of good news, but it is not enough to make the same thing happen like 2017.

 A large spike down to shake out any orders is the normal state of affairs for alot of markets.  Because BTC is typically quite volatile, that spike down could be large.   I'm not sure if current low volatility makes that spike smaller because its taken so long to transpire or not.

We did have a large build up of short positions but they have not stayed in place and we've seen wicks on the price occur.   The actual settled price has then continued onwards along the same path sideways.   I would guess then in Chicago large positions must occur that would turn into a large move but I've not yet heard of this

One thing I have even always known with history is never to use it to judge what will happen in the future and a lot of people tend to make this mistake a lot. I am always the kind of guy that always just like sticking with trends, and sometimes, when you concentrate so much on the past and just place your mind that the same thing will happen again, you may feel too relaxed, get your mind too congested and may not want to make some moves when you should. For me, it is always trade what you see and not what you feel based on the past movements. Moreover, we cannot even be comparing bitcoin this year, to bitcoin of 2013, as a lot of things have changed.

It is still all a speculation though, but you did not place some facts in between where bitcoin actually made some few attempts upward before finally coming back to settle lower and then consolidated for a while before starting another uptrend entirely.

However, it is just the way things have been, and history always have a way of repeating itself, but in the end we have to understand that a lot of things have changed, development is happening pretty fast, and what we are expecting may not actually tend to become a reality, so all in all, it is all just an anticipated guess, based on past occurrences.

This guy in OP post is telling my own theory about this thing  :-* I think it is absolutely true and he has eagle eye  :-*  All info really great

I call BS. Just because BTC price behaved in certain way in the past doesn't mean it will behave exactly in the future. There are whales and manipulators in the market who already know the patterns and will use it to their advantage. You just have to use your own eyes and brains, including gut feelings. Never let anyone else tell you what to expect, be your own guide.

Periods of very low volatility usually produce explosive breakouts. Because the prior range is so tight, the breakout is really obvious to the market once it occurs, so traders pile in.


Shorts have been closing nonstop on Bitfinex over the past few weeks. They're down ~10K BTC or almost 30% since mid-October. I'm not sure what to make of it.

I would not be surprised to see this happen as well, and even though I have a feeling that the market would try making some upper movement for a while, but there is a huge chance and possibility that in 2019, we might see the market continue with the downtrend and probably this is when we are going to get this capitulation in place and a long consolidation before we move into 2020, where it is believed that before halving, there is a pretty good chance for growth, and probably by 2020/2021 is when I will be expecting any serious movement in the market.

both statements are very wrong.
- halving doesn't guarantee any kind of price rise at all. halving is only reducing the speed at which new coins are being created nothing more. the only reason why price rises in long run is increasing adoption (ie. demand) and in short term is because of hype and FOMO buy of speculators who think halving is magically increasing price.
- if price doesn't rise it has nothing to do with failure/death of bitcoin! you say this because you don't know what bitcoin is. you think it is only created to go up and give you profit but that is far from the reason why bitcoin, the decentralized electronic cash system, was created!

I would not be too much in a haste to consider a trend reversal at this point, but however it is, the trend has always been our friends and it will keep being our friends, as there is no doubt about that.

Stability now is something we are getting to see because the market is still trying to decide the next move and we have not seen much follow through with the price going upward or downward. Also, we also have to understand that a lot of things have changed in development over the course of the years, so we may not necessarily be seeing much of 2013/2014 occurring in the same vein right now.

that is true, bitcoin doesn't have to repeat the past performance again but it will repeat it not because it happened once but because the reasons why it happened has not changed. the reasons being an increased adoption while the price is suppressed (kept down) and when it is released a big breakout happens.
and we always have the increasing demand while the supply stays limited and that means increasing price.

  I think there is huge differences between 2013 and 2017 according to the history. I believe every year has facing different challenges, so we can not differ from the current situation from the past.