Bitcoin 2013 vs bitcoin 2017

[figmentofmyass]

This one I like:

Big gap on that channel.. adjust accordingly.

indeed. i'd say a capitulation wick into the $2000s or $3000s is totally possible. i wouldn't base anything on that "channel" though. it's only got two tags on the lower bound, and none on the upper bound, so it's really just a trendline that's never been tested. it also looks a lot different on a line chart vs bar or candlestick chart, due to price averaging on line charts.

[thecodebear]

This was repeated a thousand times already.

Bitcoin have a four-year cycle. We are in the worse year of the new cycle. Its a bear year, followed by a year of recovery, then the year of the halvening, and then the bull year.

We will see 20k again only in 2019. And in 2020 we might see 50k, due to the halvening.

We will probably only see $6k for a 2019 high, 2020 probably $10k for a high, and 2021 well past $100k.

Probably $20k for 2019 high, and well past $100k for 2020 high, then averaging around $50k in 2021.

[shield132]

100% agree to OP, I was pesimist and was laughing when I was seing posts like bitcoin will be 10K in 2018 year and etc, I couldn't imagine that but now I don't think so. Yeah, there is a high chance bitcoin will hit 100K and even more. There will be halving, it's one of the main reason to see rise, unprofitable mining can't exist + consider bitcoin's current price, it's highest one. Once it was 1000K, then become 20K, there is 20x growth, so hope at least therr will be 5x growth of 20K.

[exstasie]

Probably $20k for 2019 high, and well past $100k for 2020 high, then averaging around $50k in 2021.

Are you saying there will be a major top at $20K? Why would that happen? Way too much time has passed for a double top to occur. There may be a small correction there like March 2017, but if we actually go to $20K, we're going much higher. The rally won't end there.

[Slow death]

We can not make comparisons from years past with this year because we have many different situations, for example in the past years we had little demand and we did not have much pressure from governments and banks. bitcoin was ignored by many people, this year things are very different, there is a great pressure of governments and banks, see this case:

Bitcoin ATM Operator Coinsource Gets New York Regulator’s Green Light With ‘Bitlicense’

we are going in the direction of regulation, is different from the past years.

[WinslowIII]

We can not make comparisons from years past with this year because we have many different situations, for example in the past years we had little demand and we did not have much pressure from governments and banks. bitcoin was ignored by many people, this year things are very different, there is a great pressure of governments and banks, see this case:

Bitcoin ATM Operator Coinsource Gets New York Regulator’s Green Light With ‘Bitlicense’

we are going in the direction of regulation, is different from the past years.

Given the direction of regulation, what do you see next halving 2020-2021 for prices?

[figmentofmyass]

We can not make comparisons from years past with this year because we have many different situations, for example in the past years we had little demand and we did not have much pressure from governments and banks. bitcoin was ignored by many people, this year things are very different, there is a great pressure of governments and banks, see this case:

Bitcoin ATM Operator Coinsource Gets New York Regulator’s Green Light With ‘Bitlicense’

we are going in the direction of regulation, is different from the past years.

in the context of bitcoin's growth, i don't think that's true. regulation has been ongoing for years. for example, new york's bitlicense was introduced in july 2014. in april 2014, the IRS released a memo defining virtual currency and stating how it's treated for tax purposes. the united state senate held hearings on bitcoin in november 2013. silk road was shut down by the FBI in october 2013.

you could have said all this regulatory attention made 2014 fundamentally different than 2011, when we had a brutal bear market. as it turned out, 2014 became the longest bear market to date and price fell 86% from top to bottom.

regulation might be ramping up even more now, but that's to be expected. exponential growth will inevitably have that effect. that doesn't make it impossible to compare to the previous cycles.

[cellard]

The fundamentals in 2013 were insanely different and more pessimistic compared to 2018.

2013 was still a big mess exchanges wise. If you think it's bad now, well in 2013 it was still amateur hour big time, nowadays things are getting more profesional even tho there's still big question marks out there with tether and whatnot, but the main point is there isn't a big single point of failure exchanges wise like in the Gox days.

Also the scaling drama is over. Now we've got LN already live and being improved, we have Schnorr sigs on the pipeline and other cool stuff.

We have institutional money about to come in next month with Bakkt... in 2014 we had nothing to be honest, just the hardcore holders and smart people that knew the fundamentals of bitcoin make it a winner no matter what the ponzi fiat scheme that is being priced in is valued at.

Bitcoin have a four-year cycle. We are in the worse year of the new cycle. Its a bear year, followed bwy a year of recovery, then the year of the halvening, and then the bull year.

that only happened once, from 2014-2017. you make it sound like it's an established pattern. i'd certainly say people should temper bullish expectations, but i also think it's naive to assume things will play out exactly like the 2013 bubble.

We will probably only see $6k for a 2019 high, 2020 probably $10k for a high, and 2021 well past $100k.

you got a chart to support that theory?

This one I like:



Big gap on that channel.. adjust accordingly.

Looks pretty believable to me - the top line is the top of the next peak and the bottom line is the price after the crash. Something approximating this chart needs to happen for bitcoin's survival in my opinion. It's either going to continue much higher price floors every 4 years or it's going to totally collapse.

We got way ahead of the upper channel during the 2013 Gox peak, I don't know the % but definitely by a good amount. $20k is not so out of hand, we didn't go that out of the channel. So I think something similar to the opposite way could happen (going below the channel by a pretty big amount then eventually rebounding). What I mean is, it wouldn't be the end of the world re-testing $1200 again. Of course most people don't want that, but as a worst case scenario im mentally ready for that, it would just mean Bitcoin gets insanely undervalued again to anyone with 2 functional brain cells.

Unfortunately for the people like me that think 5 to 10 years into the future and just want to gather as much as possible for when it goes 6+ figures (and at that point you will not need to sell.. just buy anything you want with your coins), I doubt we'll get to enjoy such low prices again, there's too much bull pressure, at least the OTC market is on fire accumulating.

[pooya87]

~
So I think something similar to the opposite way could happen (going below the channel by a pretty big amount then eventually rebounding). What I mean is, it wouldn't be the end of the world re-testing $1200 again.

but the momentum is lost. rise and falls are not that different. when we are in the trend, for instance rising. the top of the peak is not predictable and it can go up as long as it has that momentum. as for drop, there is "resistance" or "friction" on the way down but as long as there is momentum it can go lower. in other words $1200 could have been possible if price didn't stop at $6000 for the past couple of months. now that it has stopped and has been stable there, that momentum is lost and now the trend has started reversing.

[exstasie]

in other words $1200 could have been possible if price didn't stop at $6000 for the past couple of months. now that it has stopped and has been stable there, that momentum is lost and now the trend has started reversing.

There's no momentum in either direction. We're in a contracting range, so there hasn't been a trend reversal. It could break in either direction. Whichever direction it breaks, there will be strong momentum because of all the volume exchanged during the last several months.

$1,200 is definitely possible if price breaks down from here.......it would bring the 2018 bear market in line with 2011. But I'd buy into the $3,000 area first and reassess later. There'd be a good chance we wouldn't see any lower than that.

[DarkIT]

Probably $20k for 2019 high, and well past $100k for 2020 high, then averaging around $50k in 2021.

Are you saying there will be a major top at $20K? Why would that happen? Way too much time has passed for a double top to occur. There may be a small correction there like March 2017, but if we actually go to $20K, we're going much higher. The rally won't end there.

well, of course I prefer bitcoin in 2017. when that was the time when cryptocurrency holders succeeded. well, even though at the moment, it still leaves an impression, I think it will happen again in 2019. well, this year there is a lot of good news, but it is not enough to make the same thing happen like 2017.

[STT]

 A large spike down to shake out any orders is the normal state of affairs for alot of markets.  Because BTC is typically quite volatile, that spike down could be large.   I'm not sure if current low volatility makes that spike smaller because its taken so long to transpire or not.

We did have a large build up of short positions but they have not stayed in place and we've seen wicks on the price occur.   The actual settled price has then continued onwards along the same path sideways.   I would guess then in Chicago large positions must occur that would turn into a large move but I've not yet heard of this

[prtty2gal2]

Not totally true. Back in 2013 or 2014, the price doubled during the spring-summer period. Your post is giving few true facts but the conclusion still stays a speculation, and we all have our own.
I just hope you're wrong and we will see a significant move before October.

One thing I have even always known with history is never to use it to judge what will happen in the future and a lot of people tend to make this mistake a lot. I am always the kind of guy that always just like sticking with trends, and sometimes, when you concentrate so much on the past and just place your mind that the same thing will happen again, you may feel too relaxed, get your mind too congested and may not want to make some moves when you should. For me, it is always trade what you see and not what you feel based on the past movements. Moreover, we cannot even be comparing bitcoin this year, to bitcoin of 2013, as a lot of things have changed.

[setupbounds]

We have seen this in 2013 in bitcoin. Please look at the bitcoin in 2013.

in 2013 bitcoin has seen over $1000 and dropped in December of 2013. (Bear year began)

in 2017 bitcoin has seen over 18,000 and dropped in December 2017 ( Bear year began)

in 2014 Bitcoin dropped  more half of the price and never covered all-time high in 2014,

in 2018 Bitcoin dropped more than half of the price and still did not come back to where it was in 2018.

in 2015 Bitcoin has seen the lowest price until October 2016. ( Bitcoin has seen $200, A significant drop from $1045.)

in 2019 Bitcoin probably will see the lowest price until October 2017. ( $5000 )


In 2013, December Bitcoin has touched $1045 and went to $694 the same month but, in January 2014 bitcoin has seen $824.

in 2017 December Bitcoin has seen $18.000 and went to $14,000 the same month but, in January 2018 bitcoin has seen $17,000.

EXACTLY SAME THING HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!

according to my prediction bitcoin will keep losing value until October 2019. It is because according to history bitcoin always and always begins to rise in October and in November months and hits the all-time high in DECEMBER

Probably we will see, $5000 in March or in April 2019, and October or November of 2019 bitcoin will begin to rise. Please look at what happen bitcoin in 2013, 2014, and 2015, 2016.

All bull years begins in January of years and ends December months. The reason bitcoin failed this much is because the bitcoin investors know that bitcoin is coming to bear season ( "cashing out season")

There is no any effect about bitcoin news etc. in 2017, there were so many news about the bitcoin but bitcoin never ever effected from those news.

in 2020 a Bitcoin can be 100K or 250K. I don't know, but I know is Bitcoin moves with the percentage.

in 2013 from $13 bitcoin has risen almost 80  ($13x80= $1045) times that year and reached $1045.

in 2017 from $1000 bitcoin has risen almost 20  ($1000 x 20= $20000) times that year and reach $20,000

As a result, bitcoin will rise again, and once it rises it will be sky high.



How many people knew about bitcoin in 2013 and how many people know about bitcoin in 2017.  

WE HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE IN 2013 AND IN 2016, BITCOIN WILL RISE AGAIN, BECAUSE of HISTORY ALWAYS REPEATS ITSELF.

It is still all a speculation though, but you did not place some facts in between where bitcoin actually made some few attempts upward before finally coming back to settle lower and then consolidated for a while before starting another uptrend entirely.

However, it is just the way things have been, and history always have a way of repeating itself, but in the end we have to understand that a lot of things have changed, development is happening pretty fast, and what we are expecting may not actually tend to become a reality, so all in all, it is all just an anticipated guess, based on past occurrences.

[AlehandroTheGreat]

This guy in OP post is telling my own theory about this thing  I think it is absolutely true and he has eagle eye    All info really great

[talks_cheep]

I call BS. Just because BTC price behaved in certain way in the past doesn't mean it will behave exactly in the future. There are whales and manipulators in the market who already know the patterns and will use it to their advantage. You just have to use your own eyes and brains, including gut feelings. Never let anyone else tell you what to expect, be your own guide.

[exstasie]

A large spike down to shake out any orders is the normal state of affairs for alot of markets.  Because BTC is typically quite volatile, that spike down could be large.   I'm not sure if current low volatility makes that spike smaller because its taken so long to transpire or not.

Periods of very low volatility usually produce explosive breakouts. Because the prior range is so tight, the breakout is really obvious to the market once it occurs, so traders pile in.

We did have a large build up of short positions but they have not stayed in place and we've seen wicks on the price occur.   The actual settled price has then continued onwards along the same path sideways.   I would guess then in Chicago large positions must occur that would turn into a large move but I've not yet heard of this

Shorts have been closing nonstop on Bitfinex over the past few weeks. They're down ~10K BTC or almost 30% since mid-October. I'm not sure what to make of it.

[perfect999]

This one I like:

Big gap on that channel.. adjust accordingly.

indeed. i'd say a capitulation wick into the $2000s or $3000s is totally possible. i wouldn't base anything on that "channel" though. it's only got two tags on the lower bound, and none on the upper bound, so it's really just a trendline that's never been tested. it also looks a lot different on a line chart vs bar or candlestick chart, due to price averaging on line charts.

I would not be surprised to see this happen as well, and even though I have a feeling that the market would try making some upper movement for a while, but there is a huge chance and possibility that in 2019, we might see the market continue with the downtrend and probably this is when we are going to get this capitulation in place and a long consolidation before we move into 2020, where it is believed that before halving, there is a pretty good chance for growth, and probably by 2020/2021 is when I will be expecting any serious movement in the market.

[Pursuer]

[snip]

Because of the halving of rewards, the bitcoin price must go up every 4 years, otherwise it's growth can be said to be halted and the failure/death of bitcoin is imminent.

both statements are very wrong.
- halving doesn't guarantee any kind of price rise at all. halving is only reducing the speed at which new coins are being created nothing more. the only reason why price rises in long run is increasing adoption (ie. demand) and in short term is because of hype and FOMO buy of speculators who think halving is magically increasing price.
- if price doesn't rise it has nothing to do with failure/death of bitcoin! you say this because you don't know what bitcoin is. you think it is only created to go up and give you profit but that is far from the reason why bitcoin, the decentralized electronic cash system, was created!

[el kaka22]

~
So I think something similar to the opposite way could happen (going below the channel by a pretty big amount then eventually rebounding). What I mean is, it wouldn't be the end of the world re-testing $1200 again.

but the momentum is lost. rise and falls are not that different. when we are in the trend, for instance rising. the top of the peak is not predictable and it can go up as long as it has that momentum. as for drop, there is "resistance" or "friction" on the way down but as long as there is momentum it can go lower. in other words $1200 could have been possible if price didn't stop at $6000 for the past couple of months. now that it has stopped and has been stable there, that momentum is lost and now the trend has started reversing.

I would not be too much in a haste to consider a trend reversal at this point, but however it is, the trend has always been our friends and it will keep being our friends, as there is no doubt about that.

Stability now is something we are getting to see because the market is still trying to decide the next move and we have not seen much follow through with the price going upward or downward. Also, we also have to understand that a lot of things have changed in development over the course of the years, so we may not necessarily be seeing much of 2013/2014 occurring in the same vein right now.