Bitcoin Forum

BTFD = Buy The F*cking Dip

https://i.imgur.com/2wIwnxr.jpg

I don't wanna be a party pooper or anything but BTC getting back to its ath could take a lot longer than anticipated.  Markets are more irrational than not and the fundamentals may see that it should go to ath, it prolly won't.

The best example I could think of is the Japanese stock market.  It still hasn't broken it's ath which happened on 1990.  That's like a tad under 30 years.

Nikkei 225 Index:  1950 - 2018

https://i.imgur.com/59zRAZV.png

If we talk about fundamental things, then the only powerful level of support is $ 3,000) But I prefer to trust different clever analytics) Now the only way is to hold) Because to sell at such prices to get only small part of my depo I don't want)

$3000 is people's safe haven level it seems. I am in that camp as well, but it does make up for a scenario at which whales could on purposely choose to demolish that level. Imagine the panic going through the market if that happens, perfect last shakeoff attempt it is. I'm sure that when $3000 breaks, even a part of the Bitcoin OG's will start to feel uncomfortable.

I would say the best thing to do is to place buy orders between $2000 and $3500 to make sure you don't have to manually check and act. I have done it already and now it's waiting for my orders to get filled. I'm confident that the orders between $3000-$3500 will get filled in the coming days, everything below $3000 is a bonus for me.

If you're buying now at $3000 then you don't need bitcoin to return to its ATH anytime soon. If it takes 30 years that's still going to be one of the best investments available to you. If it goes to $6000 in 1 year then that's better than most traditional investments.

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

It all depends on the dip, and your time horizon. Any dip below $10,000 in my opinion is worth buying, the most important aspect however is the amount you allocate to each dip.

Dips between $8000-$10,000 are low priority, so the amounts I use in this case are low. Dips below $6000 are priority dips, which means that I use significantly higher amounts than with the aforementioned levels.

Anything below $4000 is an instant buy in my book. I continue to average my way in as much as I can. If the price drops further, I'll buy more. I have enough patience to wait for a recovery.

There is one very extremely large difference which renders that comparison invalid - every crypto wave brings in more people than were already present in a way no stock market does. They've already reached saturation. They may grow in financial terms. They won't grow significantly in personnel terms.

Future waves will bring numbers up to not far off saturation. This wave sure as buggery was not it.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

first of all you can't compare a brand new technology which is not even adopted yet let alone be mass adopted to an established market like stocks which has existed for years and it doesn't really grow since there is no adoption like bitcoin.
bitcoin is rising like this because its adoption is growing. there are more people coming in and demand rises hence the price shoots up.

secondly "dip" depends on your perspective. for a day trader going from $3900 to $3850 is a dip. but for a longer term investor $6000 was the dip.
for example the after 2013 dip which people love to compare to this year was the same. $250 was "dip" that people bought at. do you think they are crying about it now because afterwards price dropped 40%? LOL
https://i.imgur.com/drkfw8r.jpg

They fail to understand that what has happened in last year 2017. If people who had not bought at lower price or hold it say bought at 1k, 2k etc and sold around 15 - 18k or so how would they have become rich or many have become millionaire as well during this process. So it is individual decision if people want to make money or not and if yes how will they make if they do not buy on dip.

So you think that bitcoin will never reach it's ATH again,by comparting it with the Japanese stock market?
Where's the logic?I don't see any logic.Japan is way different than the USA or Europe.Their financial system is different.We just can't compare it with bitcoin.Anyway,the people,who buy the dip have to buy to HODL for the long term,not just to buy the dip. ;D

what I don't get here is that why made you even compare stocks market of Japan with bitcoin?!!! it is like comparing apples and oranges. there is nothing comparable here. and even if you want to compare then start comparing them in ALL aspects not just take one part (the time taking for recovery) and compare that. you need to start comparing volume, price rise and drop (as in the size and time frame it takes), manipulations, regulation, investor trust, FUD, number of investors, potential... and a ton of other factors. and as you start doing that you can see how your statement starts falling apart.

He made the comparison because it fits his outlook on the situation or the agenda of his master 8).
Just another FUD.

But in some sense there is a point to be made that the history of Bitcoin might not repeat. I however still believe in Bitcoin :)

True, but we can't rely solely on new money constantly coming in to maintain the price, otherwise that would just be the Greater Fool Theory in practice. And new money is unlikely to enter much for the foreseeable future given the ongoing price crash. The price has to come from bitcoin being used, and all the people just buying and holding waiting for the price to "moon" aren't helping that.



I agree that the comparison to the Japanese stock market isn't the most valid, for the reasons I states in my previous post, but writing off everything you don't like as "FUD" is neither smart nor helpful. Everyone needs to be aware that yes, we could rally again next year, but similarly this could very well be the start of a several year bear market. No one knows.

If someone grabs a random stock and predicts that recovery will not happen in 30 years and project it on Bitcoin, then IMO OP is projecting

- Fear of never recovering
- Uncertainty of Bitcoins future
- Despair as in "Don't Buy the F*cking Dip"

You are correct that we do not know what is coming. I think we should try and be optimistic.

well, I don't know. I can't remember seeing @tokeweed spreading FUD about bitcoin in the past so I don't think the intentions here was FUDing either. I still find the comparison pretty strange though.

It's somewhat disingenuous to start calling him a FUDbot by attempting to inject some realism but it's interesting how people ALWAYS choose stock markets as a comparison when it's forex that has many more similarities in how it operates at least.



Another fundamental difference is a stock market operates a few hours a day 5 days a week in one country. Crypto churns 24/7 globally in every grubby corner of the internet.

Human psychology can't be rushed but it terms of pure market that means 200 or so countries 24 hours a day vs 1 country for 8 hours a day. 600x more temporal real estate for action.

This. But about BTFD, I dont think cost-averaging is a good strategy, specially in a bear market. But waiting for a bottom is not a good strategy either, as I tought 6k was the final bottom, bought some fractions and now the price is half of it. We cant have strategies with bitcoin, the market is very manipulated.

There is one other thing that is missing in the big picture.
In addition to what the previous guys said about the comparison between bitcoin market and the Japanese stock market the here is the other nail to the OP's theory -  the Bitcoin Halving.
And those 4 year cycles cause and will continue to make the market tremble, it inevitable.

Just for fun here...
https://cryptozek.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DjCGMNdUwAIeS0t.jpg
Source > https://cryptozek.com/bitcoin-chart-wall-street-cheat-sheet-market-cycle/

Halvings will gradually lose potency. Going from 25 BTC to 12.5 is a big deal when there are still 15% of new coins to arrive. Going from 0.78 to 0.39 when 0.8% is left to mine is considerably less impactful in real terms. Dunno about the psychology f those numbers though.

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational.  $20,000 for an asset that doesn't get used for much other than trading seems insane to me--and I'm a bitcoin supporter, by the way, not a hater.  It could be that where we're at ($3666 as I write this) is more of a level-headed price.

Would I love it to be much higher?  Hell, yes.  But maybe all the weak handed morons and other speculators have been shaken out of the market and it might be time for some new--and hopefully slower--growth.

It depends on the price of the bitcoin I guess. If it is in the price range as per today it won't matter so much, again 9 years ago the a few bitcoins were almost nothing in a value. What will be in 8 years or 30, I can just speculate, but if the up going trend continues those low number can still affect the market, maybe not so drastically as the last years but for sure there will be an impact.

The problem with this chart is that you can zoom in and out on the bitcoin graph as you like and fit it to any number of scenarios. It's been cropping up on here and various other crypto sites and forums since around March or April this year, along with literally thousands of charts that which we are going to moon to a million, dump to zero, and everything in between. I'm very much in the camp that these kinds of technical analyses, pattern recognition and fitting price movements to lines and graphs are inaccurate at best, and complete guess work at worst.




It absolutely is, and I really hope the wider crypto-sphere follows suit. There are coins in the top 10 by marketcap (don't even get me started on how useless a metric marketcap is) that are outright scams. The death of >95% of the altcoins would do us all a world of good.

I could see some replies saying the comparison is invalid and stuff...  All I'm saying is it could happen to BTC too.  It's really not that impossible.  Same as BTC to a 100k USD isn't impossible...  That's all I'm saying.

And that meme is funny.  ;D

a big difference that is usually forgotten about bitcoin price is that when you look at other markets, the rises and falls are actual growth and bubbles and bubble bursts and corrections and .... in short they are market cycles.

but when it comes to bitcoin what you see is similar and it consists of the same cycle steps but 90% of what you see is irrational and emotional market behavior. if you see similarities some days, it is because people are emotionally deciding to react that way not because the market went that way.

fractal analysis like that = curve fitting. i used to love trading fractals until they screwed me over repeatedly and i learned my lesson. you can't reliably backtest chart patterns, particularly complex ones. you can't expect history to keep repeating itself either!


we're at 250-300k confirmed transactions per day. that's not nothing.

bitcoin is money. i don't think it needs to have any other use cases. the main question for price is how expansive the network gets.

It doesn't really matter if you buy the dip and it goes down even further. I mean if you buy the dip with all of your money thats a big trouble but if you are a person who makes money on regular basis like many other you can buy it again on the next dip.

As long as you can keep on buying the dip you are dropping the cost average of your purchases down and when the price goes higher it only requires to go higher a bit after a while. There was a person I read on reddit that bought 100 dollars worth of bitcoin since the 2014 fiasco.

Dude put up 100 dollars each month until 20 thousand dollar of last year, he said he cashed out a bit of investment to buy something (I forgot what it was) but intends to keep the rest in there and keep on buying 100 dollars every month. There is literally no dip for you that's too bad if you follow that logic.

Right. There is absolutely every possibility that could happen, given the sheer size of the last bull market. But I don't think it's likely.

I still think that we're very close to the bottom at the moment, given how much interest institutions have shown in trading or investing into bitcoin in the past few months despite what the market sentiment has been like. This is also around the level which the bear market after 2013 had bottomed out.

Obviously, previous performance isn't always a reliable indicator of what's going to happen in the future, but I think that the 2020 halving will also have a very bullish impact on the market, solely based on a price standpoint. Of course though, we don't know when this is actually going to bottom, but I do think that right now it is probably worth it to get into the market gradually and extend long positions on BTC. Even if it does fall further down under $3k, I don't think it's very likely it would stay under there for too long. That's where dollar cost averaging could help.

Hahahahaha! I can only imagine!! This year alone for a lot of people is already looking like a decade. When will the crypto market recover? When will things change in this market? When are we going to be able to go back to where it dropped from? All those questions are the things we are getting to see with the market now, and of course, it is expected, judging from the way things have been and the way some people actually approached the market. 30 years literally for crypto is not actually something I will see happening, considering that the space is still young and people will still want to get greedier.

Come on toke man, look what would have happened if you would have BTFD ;)

Seriously I’m always buying & increasing my stash, one bitcoin will be valued at north of $40,000 after the next halvening. Don’t get caught with your pants down.

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

Well long term holders probably aren't too eager for another ath run anytime soon anyways. Some people just can't afford to btfd all the time and grow their btc stash. It's just a bit too hard to keep your emotions and anxiety in check whenever you see the market and your portfolio jumping off and breaking apart like humpty dumpty.

since last month, the price nearly dropped in half from top to bottom. i wouldn't exactly call that a small price fluctuation. :D

the OP is right. people have been screaming "buy the dip" since january. if you bought the dip back then instead of now, you'd have 3x or 4x less coins right now!

Comparatively speaking 250-300k confirmed transactions per day is nothing. Any major currency will in to billions of transactions per day. I believe that Visa has around 150 million transactions a day. That should put things in to some perspective. Bitcoin has a usefulness and is clearly being used but it still pales in comparison to anything established.

If you’re after quick money then bitcoin isn’t for you. Most of us who have HODLED since 2014 & before have made incredible gains that no fiat savings account will ever give you.

as someone who held through the 2014 bear market, that's a fair point.

but the issue wasn't about quick money. it was about recognizing there's a larger market cycle, and how detrimental to your portfolio buying near a bubble top can be. that's why i don't like the indiscriminate BTFD mentality---it only works in bull markets. after the bubble pops, it's wise to wait out the bear market, even if it means missing out on the bottom. you never know which dip will be the last. waiting the bear market out before buying (rather than holding to the bottom) can easily double or triple your stash for the next bull run.

That is the point where a lot of people might start thinking of going all in, so in a way, I might be surprised not to see a bounce from here. However, with the fact that this market is of course going to be taking a long time to go back to the previous ATH, I will not be surprised at all and at that point, I am sure a lot of people would have given up and then just assume there is nothing for the market anymore and probably cash out even at loss, for those who actually bought at the peak. It is what it is anyway, but one thing for sure is that no matter how long it takes, I am still pretty bullish long term on this market, even if I will have to pass it on to my kids.

If you want to buy the dip, at least do it with some technical analysis.

Looking at June-Nov 2018 right before it broke the $5800 support, there was actually no reason to go long, it kept making lower highs and aside from the tether FUD which caused price to go to $7500 last month, there was no real break-out.

Now its the same story, unless it closes above the daily highs made in the last 2 weeks, there is no reason to go long.

In my opinion if it ever engulfs the huge cup and handle that will form if it ever reaches $6K again, then $6.5K is a confirmation to go long.

If you had BTFD at the current bottom of this cycle ($3,4xx) you’d now be in profit ($4,162).
Keep buying in small (ish) increments & HODL until after the next halving, it’s guaranteed money.

This, i totally seconded it.

The current price is nowhere near the actual value of BTC.

Never to look at last year ATH as a benchmark, nor the previous support of $6k.

Just accumulate your stash by buying small bits, you can thank me later.

Well that's the thing...  A lot of these guys who said 6k would hold because they drew some lines on a chart were pretty convinced it wouldn't break down.  Lol.  I guess they forgot about the dip to the dip to the dipitty dip.  :D

Things can turn in an instant. Patterns that we believe in wholeheartedly can disintegrate with no previous signs of doing so. Indeed we've just had one. Almost every previous November had some positive action no matter what the bigger curve was doing. This one's been a shitshow.

I don't believe anything's guaranteed but I'm sure as shit hoping it follows some well worn tropes.

If I'd been sensible and removed half at the peak I'd care a lot less.

 

I totally agree with your point of people keeping $3000 level is high resistance level but what i am seeing is that if that level is broken then 80% of them will come to panic and the price will go even below $2000 level and where it will end no one knows but below $2000 level buying will be a very good one as it will bounce back very soon as 90% of the panic sellers would have sold it and that will be the perfect time to buy as atleast you will get 100% double like $3500 - $4000 level very soon after that massive downfall.

I never recommend BTFD because for almost a year of waiting, the market clearly shows the average declining that when you buy the dip it dips even more so i suggest that we should observe more the market for a couple of months or until we see that the price is stabilize to the new support level.

I've been thinking about this and the replies that said 'oh but the Japanese market and the BTC market are different'.  Is there really a huge difference?

I mean like you said, people are irrational and emotional...  Well all markets are made up of people.  And it's that irrationality that could make BTC take a really long time before it can break its ATH.

It seems that we're doing exactly what we did last year. It made no sense to break high after high for most people, and the same is happening right now with how they continue to be shocked about the lower lows.

I wish we never had that $20,000 pump because it makes the market looks silly. A very small time frame where the price was hovering over $10,000 will result in the market to keep bleeding because it looks way worse than it actually is.

People that were complaining about the $6000 mark now realize that it wasn't all that bad. Months of boring stability above $6000 is much better than seeing the price tank to where it is today, right?

^  Are you saying that not breaking the 20k USD high is better as long as BTC is trading with lower volatility?  I guess it could be better since we can always get all our action into alts.

BTFD ?

offcourse

https://i.imgur.com/ertIUNa.gif

!!

Only smart people and patient people will do the same thing as you, especially for those who don't want to lose a large portion of their funds.


Now, this is the only best way we all have to do it now, because only this type of contribution is what bitcoin needs to grow to a better level, hopefully what you say can follow by other users, it doesn't matter even if it's slow and only a few coins they will buy.

Its because the market is going irrational and when you thought that we have reach the lowest point, whales or speculators will continue to sell causing the price to dip more. But what can you do? Buy more or just wait? So it really depends on how you look at your investment then, doing short or long term?

Right now I don't see any support levels but $3K seems to be holding but I wouldn't be surprised if manipulators wanted to play more games in the next coming months to challenge that levels and see the price going down further.

^^  microgoosens.  Lmao!  But if they make the right call, it's... 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/mgc.gif

This is the worst kind of market to BTFD imho.  And the worst year.  It just shows how irrational some people get sometimes.

Hmmm...  Looks like it's time to bump the thread back up again.  :D  So what do you guys think, is BTC gonna go below 7k USD or what?

And remember guys, never catch a falling knife.

Worthy to be bumped. ;D

I highly believe that we would go dip to that level as we approach that halving event. Big players/investors would try to push down prices
to the possible lowest level to accumulate back and to benefit when markets tends to reverse.

Im still hesitant to buy and we wont know if this current price would already be the bottom.

I'm pretty confident that it will. It broke through the ascending trend line of the parabolic increase we had this year, which is never an indication of confidence. Another very bearish indicator is the fact that we gave back nearly everything of the massive $3000 pump we had not that long ago. This made me open a short position I will very likely hold on to until we visit sub $6500 levels.

Interestingly, Gold seems to be following Bitcoin quite accurately this year. Bitcoin had a very nice run up this year, then Gold followed with a rally of its own. Bitcoin started to weaken and not long after that, Gold did so too. Both are currently looking kinda bearish with lower prices to expect. My first Bitcoin target is $6000-$6500 where my target for Gold currently is ~$1400.

Thanks for the bump. It's very cool to see what my sentiment was back then. It paid off quite nicely.

Be greedy when others are fearful. Wise words from Warren Buffett I will never forget.

Ah, that's the intestinal fortitude that's needed to make a good profit!  If you're confident that bitcoin is a solid investment (which reflects my opinion on it), it is times like these when it's time to buy.  If you're holding bitcoin now, especially a lot of it, times like these can make you queasy--and I totally get that.  I didn't think bitcoin would drop this much after breaking out above $12k but here we are.  Typical bitcoin behavior.

Yes indeed.  Buffett is a great example of a person who's lived by those words, and look at how wealthy he is.  Not that he'd ever invest in bitcoin, but that's his choice and I respect that fully.  Right now investors do seem very fearful of where bitcoin is headed, but there's been no bad news and there's no reason why bitcoin has dropped as much as it did since yesterday.  Anyway, I still think it has more value than the market is giving it credit for and that it's a good bargain at the current price.

Getting at nowhere.
It is in the saying though history repeats itself. Which still no one knows when, however, it is in the signs. Signs are showing everywhere, there are analysis or threads here who reiterate such situation in which we might as well consider that the history can really repeat. I am not saying that it will really happened though, I am just addressing that we can consider such fact.