To All You Guys Who Keep Telling Everybody to BTFD

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Markets are more irrational than not and the fundamentals may see that it should go to ath, it prolly won't.

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational.  $20,000 for an asset that doesn't get used for much other than trading seems insane to me--and I'm a bitcoin supporter, by the way, not a hater.  It could be that where we're at ($3666 as I write this) is more of a level-headed price.

Would I love it to be much higher?  Hell, yes.  But maybe all the weak handed morons and other speculators have been shaken out of the market and it might be time for some new--and hopefully slower--growth.

[TheBeardedBaby]

Halvings will gradually lose potency. Going from 25 BTC to 12.5 is a big deal when there are still 15% of new coins to arrive. Going from 0.78 to 0.39 when 0.8% is left to mine is considerably less impactful in real terms. Dunno about the psychology f those numbers though.

It depends on the price of the bitcoin I guess. If it is in the price range as per today it won't matter so much, again 9 years ago the a few bitcoins were almost nothing in a value. What will be in 8 years or 30, I can just speculate, but if the up going trend continues those low number can still affect the market, maybe not so drastically as the last years but for sure there will be an impact.

[o_e_l_e_o]

-snip-

The problem with this chart is that you can zoom in and out on the bitcoin graph as you like and fit it to any number of scenarios. It's been cropping up on here and various other crypto sites and forums since around March or April this year, along with literally thousands of charts that which we are going to moon to a million, dump to zero, and everything in between. I'm very much in the camp that these kinds of technical analyses, pattern recognition and fitting price movements to lines and graphs are inaccurate at best, and complete guess work at worst.

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational.

It absolutely is, and I really hope the wider crypto-sphere follows suit. There are coins in the top 10 by marketcap (don't even get me started on how useless a metric marketcap is) that are outright scams. The death of >95% of the altcoins would do us all a world of good.

[tokeweed]

I could see some replies saying the comparison is invalid and stuff...  All I'm saying is it could happen to BTC too.  It's really not that impossible.  Same as BTC to a 100k USD isn't impossible...  That's all I'm saying.

And that meme is funny. 

[BrewMaster]

a big difference that is usually forgotten about bitcoin price is that when you look at other markets, the rises and falls are actual growth and bubbles and bubble bursts and corrections and .... in short they are market cycles.

but when it comes to bitcoin what you see is similar and it consists of the same cycle steps but 90% of what you see is irrational and emotional market behavior. if you see similarities some days, it is because people are emotionally deciding to react that way not because the market went that way.

[figmentofmyass]

-snip-

The problem with this chart is that you can zoom in and out on the bitcoin graph as you like and fit it to any number of scenarios. It's been cropping up on here and various other crypto sites and forums since around March or April this year, along with literally thousands of charts that which we are going to moon to a million, dump to zero, and everything in between. I'm very much in the camp that these kinds of technical analyses, pattern recognition and fitting price movements to lines and graphs are inaccurate at best, and complete guess work at worst.

fractal analysis like that = curve fitting. i used to love trading fractals until they screwed me over repeatedly and i learned my lesson. you can't reliably backtest chart patterns, particularly complex ones. you can't expect history to keep repeating itself either!

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational.  $20,000 for an asset that doesn't get used for much other than trading seems insane to me--and I'm a bitcoin supporter, by the way, not a hater.

we're at 250-300k confirmed transactions per day. that's not nothing.

bitcoin is money. i don't think it needs to have any other use cases. the main question for price is how expansive the network gets.

[wuvdoll]

It doesn't really matter if you buy the dip and it goes down even further. I mean if you buy the dip with all of your money thats a big trouble but if you are a person who makes money on regular basis like many other you can buy it again on the next dip.

As long as you can keep on buying the dip you are dropping the cost average of your purchases down and when the price goes higher it only requires to go higher a bit after a while. There was a person I read on reddit that bought 100 dollars worth of bitcoin since the 2014 fiasco.

Dude put up 100 dollars each month until 20 thousand dollar of last year, he said he cashed out a bit of investment to buy something (I forgot what it was) but intends to keep the rest in there and keep on buying 100 dollars every month. There is literally no dip for you that's too bad if you follow that logic.

[magneto]

I don't wanna be a party pooper or anything but BTC getting back to its ath could take a lot longer than anticipated.  Markets are more irrational than not and the fundamentals may see that it should go to ath, it prolly won't.

The best example I could think of is the Japanese stock market.  It still hasn't broken it's ath which happened on 1990.  That's like a tad under 30 years.

Right. There is absolutely every possibility that could happen, given the sheer size of the last bull market. But I don't think it's likely.

I still think that we're very close to the bottom at the moment, given how much interest institutions have shown in trading or investing into bitcoin in the past few months despite what the market sentiment has been like. This is also around the level which the bear market after 2013 had bottomed out.

Obviously, previous performance isn't always a reliable indicator of what's going to happen in the future, but I think that the 2020 halving will also have a very bullish impact on the market, solely based on a price standpoint. Of course though, we don't know when this is actually going to bottom, but I do think that right now it is probably worth it to get into the market gradually and extend long positions on BTC. Even if it does fall further down under $3k, I don't think it's very likely it would stay under there for too long. That's where dollar cost averaging could help.

[KalaiBTC]

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

Hahahahaha! I can only imagine!! This year alone for a lot of people is already looking like a decade. When will the crypto market recover? When will things change in this market? When are we going to be able to go back to where it dropped from? All those questions are the things we are getting to see with the market now, and of course, it is expected, judging from the way things have been and the way some people actually approached the market. 30 years literally for crypto is not actually something I will see happening, considering that the space is still young and people will still want to get greedier.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Come on toke man, look what would have happened if you would have BTFD

Seriously I’m always buying & increasing my stash, one bitcoin will be valued at north of $40,000 after the next halvening. Don’t get caught with your pants down.

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

[gabmen]

Well long term holders probably aren't too eager for another ath run anytime soon anyways. Some people just can't afford to btfd all the time and grow their btc stash. It's just a bit too hard to keep your emotions and anxiety in check whenever you see the market and your portfolio jumping off and breaking apart like humpty dumpty.

[figmentofmyass]

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

since last month, the price nearly dropped in half from top to bottom. i wouldn't exactly call that a small price fluctuation.

the OP is right. people have been screaming "buy the dip" since january. if you bought the dip back then instead of now, you'd have 3x or 4x less coins right now!

[cindygirl]

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational.  $20,000 for an asset that doesn't get used for much other than trading seems insane to me--and I'm a bitcoin supporter, by the way, not a hater.

we're at 250-300k confirmed transactions per day. that's not nothing.

bitcoin is money. i don't think it needs to have any other use cases. the main question for price is how expansive the network gets.

Comparatively speaking 250-300k confirmed transactions per day is nothing. Any major currency will in to billions of transactions per day. I believe that Visa has around 150 million transactions a day. That should put things in to some perspective. Bitcoin has a usefulness and is clearly being used but it still pales in comparison to anything established.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

since last month, the price nearly dropped in half from top to bottom. i wouldn't exactly call that a small price fluctuation.

the OP is right. people have been screaming "buy the dip" since january. if you bought the dip back then instead of now, you'd have 3x or 4x less coins right now!

If you’re after quick money then bitcoin isn’t for you. Most of us who have HODLED since 2014 & before have made incredible gains that no fiat savings account will ever give you.

[figmentofmyass]

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

since last month, the price nearly dropped in half from top to bottom. i wouldn't exactly call that a small price fluctuation.

the OP is right. people have been screaming "buy the dip" since january. if you bought the dip back then instead of now, you'd have 3x or 4x less coins right now!

If you’re after quick money then bitcoin isn’t for you. Most of us who have HODLED since 2014 & before have made incredible gains that no fiat savings account will ever give you.

as someone who held through the 2014 bear market, that's a fair point.

but the issue wasn't about quick money. it was about recognizing there's a larger market cycle, and how detrimental to your portfolio buying near a bubble top can be. that's why i don't like the indiscriminate BTFD mentality---it only works in bull markets. after the bubble pops, it's wise to wait out the bear market, even if it means missing out on the bottom. you never know which dip will be the last. waiting the bear market out before buying (rather than holding to the bottom) can easily double or triple your stash for the next bull run.

[Clemcout]

If we talk about fundamental things, then the only powerful level of support is $ 3,000) But I prefer to trust different clever analytics) Now the only way is to hold) Because to sell at such prices to get only small part of my depo I don't want)

That is the point where a lot of people might start thinking of going all in, so in a way, I might be surprised not to see a bounce from here. However, with the fact that this market is of course going to be taking a long time to go back to the previous ATH, I will not be surprised at all and at that point, I am sure a lot of people would have given up and then just assume there is nothing for the market anymore and probably cash out even at loss, for those who actually bought at the peak. It is what it is anyway, but one thing for sure is that no matter how long it takes, I am still pretty bullish long term on this market, even if I will have to pass it on to my kids.

[adaseb]

If you want to buy the dip, at least do it with some technical analysis.

Looking at June-Nov 2018 right before it broke the $5800 support, there was actually no reason to go long, it kept making lower highs and aside from the tether FUD which caused price to go to $7500 last month, there was no real break-out.

Now its the same story, unless it closes above the daily highs made in the last 2 weeks, there is no reason to go long.

In my opinion if it ever engulfs the huge cup and handle that will form if it ever reaches $6K again, then $6.5K is a confirmation to go long.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

If you had BTFD at the current bottom of this cycle ($3,4xx) you’d now be in profit ($4,162).
Keep buying in small (ish) increments & HODL until after the next halving, it’s guaranteed money.

[stelee68]

If you had BTFD at the current bottom of this cycle ($3,4xx) you’d now be in profit ($4,162).
Keep buying in small (ish) increments & HODL until after the next halving, it’s guaranteed money.

This, i totally seconded it.

The current price is nowhere near the actual value of BTC.

Never to look at last year ATH as a benchmark, nor the previous support of $6k.

Just accumulate your stash by buying small bits, you can thank me later.

[tokeweed]

If you want to buy the dip, at least do it with some technical analysis.

Looking at June-Nov 2018 right before it broke the $5800 support, there was actually no reason to go long, it kept making lower highs and aside from the tether FUD which caused price to go to $7500 last month, there was no real break-out.

Now its the same story, unless it closes above the daily highs made in the last 2 weeks, there is no reason to go long.

In my opinion if it ever engulfs the huge cup and handle that will form if it ever reaches $6K again, then $6.5K is a confirmation to go long.

Well that's the thing...  A lot of these guys who said 6k would hold because they drew some lines on a chart were pretty convinced it wouldn't break down.  Lol.  I guess they forgot about the dip to the dip to the dipitty dip.