Bitcoin Forum

Bubbles are quite common in human history, whether they be tulips, south-sea, Mississippi, the 1929 stock-market, the 1978 gold mania, thoughout human history there have been bubbles.

A tell-tale of the bubble, is the parabolic rise, 20X in one year like BTC 2017 is a parabolic rise, one thing with all parabolic rises in human-history, they always come down.

The only mania that came back ( even for a short time ) was south-sea bubble, it was a dead-cat bounce, that even wiped out sir isaac newton, so it shows you have its not just idiot that venture back into a collapsed bubble,

But one clear pattern of bubble collapses, is the time to return, now with tulip, south-sea, Mississippi they never really came back, but the stock market post 1929 did come back, but it took 30 years, and the gold collapse post 1978-1982 bubble did come back, but it took 20 years.

On average it take 1-1/2 generations for people to forget they got wiped out ( 90% loss, or even 100% loss ), this is the nature of bubbles post collapse.

Today BITCOIN has collapsed down 90% year-2-date, and still dropping like a rock from a hot-air balloon.

The pump&dumpers say many things, ... it will come back, this bubble is different, BTC is not the stock-market or gold

Well BTC is just another time-series of data that can be statistically measured just like all others, whether it be rail-roads from the 1800's, or air-transportation from the 1960's bubbles are bubbles, and they always come back to earth. The question is do they return? and when do they return.

BTC is NOT valuable in and of itself, its only as good as its 'brand', thus BTC is much like the south-sea bubble, or Mississippi bubble those bubbles were largely inflated by fake-fiat, ,not unlike BTC today.

The other problem with BTC is that its easily duplicated, say now there are 2100 clones, and it appears another 100 added every month, as any idiot can copy&paste source, and add another clone; Anybody can fork BITCOIN and promote it, just like BITCOIN-GOLD which was sold for $500 before it was even forked in Russian futures.

BITCOIN was/is an INTERNATIONAL bubble, which is quite different than any bubble we have seen before, no bubble in the past has been on the INTERNATIONAL scale. The entire world speculated in BITCOIN in 2017, which is why it was able to rise to such a huge capitilization.

The problem now is there are 1,000's of lawsuits pending all over the world, because some +$500 BILLION was lost, some speculate over $800 Billion. Gone evaporated, which means millions of people lost their lost savings, they are angry, they are mad, and they will seek restitution.

A student of south-sea bubble, or Mississippi should know that post bubble many promoters were murdered and sent to jail. These kinds of bubbles never end well for those who promote them, e.g. pump&dump as seen here on bitcointalk.org

In summary, even if BITCOIN does come back, it will take anywhere between 20-30 years, over a generation for people to forget their loss. Certainly bitcoin will bump along, and have some value, but the speculative bubble we witnessed will not return, as never before in history, has a bubble came back in a short time period, and that's for the good-stuff.

A price of something is only as valuable as people will pay, the RISE of BITCOIN was largely the FED-FIAT post 2008, some $4 trillion USD were dumped on the world, and obviously $1T made its way to BTC, most likely the QE is over, which means that there is no source to re-inflate BITCOIN in the near future.

Most are aware that we're in a depression since 2008, and the future is dire for the USD, typically when the economy's of the world go to shit people invest in real assets, BITCOIN at best is a transactional currency, a holding-tank to transfer money A to B. Holding BITCOIN has 50/50 chance of total loss of capital, thus during a world depression people will not be parking their wealth in BITCOIN, but if millions use it day-2-day to move wealth around, the price will stabilize to some value ( IMHO around $1400 USD )

I think this bubble will eventually lead to a bull run. So far, Bitcoin has already crossed the $10,000 price threshold, so it is likely that it will cross it again soon.

It is only a 10 year old security so Bitcoin has a long way to go to improve its volatility and value.

90%
??
sorry but no

you dont understand the many layers of value.
yes the spike of 2017 went up beyond value and into FOMO speculation and was not sustainable. but bitcoin is still above the cheapest cost to mine bitcoin. it has not crashed. it just corrects down if it PRICE moves too far away from cheapest cost VALUE to mine it.

your thought process would have a point in a asset with zero cost in creation such as PoS coins but its not the same for PoW coins.

as for 90%
20k down to $2k....... never happened this year

anyway. keep an eye on the hashrates
using canaan(avalon) discount $200 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 83
using bitmains s9 discounted at $400 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 104
using bitmains s15 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 117
using bitmains lastgen s9's multiply the number of exahash by 154

and you will have a good range of mining costs which prices like to keep around where there is not much speculation

if prices go too far above that range then yep, pure speculation.

R U a retarded bot??

whattomine.com, publishes that an s-9 running at $0.10 per kwh generates a whopping loss of $1/day, run an s-9 that and lose $1 a day, who in the hell is going to do this bullshit, and then ask why most miners are pulling the plug?

Me thinks these miners will end up in some place maybe venezuela, where people can steal electricity.

Who in the hell is mining, I don't know anywhere you can get power that cheap, I get bullshit ad's from bitmain everyday promoting the s-9 for $100, IMHO they can't even give them away, somebody in CHINA will buy them for $1/each, and market them as space heaters.

It's going to be quite difficult to get mining hardware into Venezuela, as the Venezuelan government has banned the imports of cryptocurrency mining equipment[1][2]. Probably the only way for Venezuelan to mine is to use their personal hardware(which is definitely not profitable when talking about mining BTC). Venezuelans are going to be farming RuneScape gold for a while.

[1] https://www.ccn.com/venezuela-bans-imports-of-cryptocurrency-mining-equipment-report/
[2] https://blockexplorer.com/news/venezuela-bans-crypto-mining-rigs-from-entering-the-country/

Bubbles show weaknesses in society and in the mentality of a person. A desire to make a fortune in no time together with lack of financial knowledge have always led to collapse. However, crypto offers brand new opportunities, and if they are duly seized, crypto will become a new era in the history of finances.

Bitcoin cannot be considered as a bubble because the current price dip won't last long and Bitcoin will be better than fine in the future and many predict Bitcoin will be considered as a mainstream currency in the world and Bitcoin will definitely change the inefficient banking system and other traditional and non advanced organizations by proving blockchain based decentralized cryptocurrency transaction system to make faster, secure and better payments and transactions for any need from anywhere in the world at any time so in the future these qualities will make Bitcoin more popular among many individuals in the world so even the price has dropped there will be a certain rise very soon and that is why this is not even closer to a bubble

what a long load of crap about bitcoin. i sometimes wonder how old are those who come up with these stuff! because someone with basic understanding of economics and value of things wouldn't even say 80% of the nonsense that OP posted here.

There's no international bubble?Are you kidding me?
Every big multinational corporation is an international bubble.Amazon,Apple,Facebook,the list oges on and on...
Their stocks are pumped and overpriced,due to the fiat money printing machine.They are far worse bubbles than bitcoin.

Like always this price drop which seems like a burst of a bubble will led to a high price increase because even Bitcoin price dropped it will recover perfectly so definitely it will reach to it's correct price in the future but it might take a while to happen that and the only thing it needs is more time and with this kind of price there will be a certain level of demand increase because many new traders will attracted due to the lower price and it can also help to increase the value and recover quickly

sorry sweetheart you are way too late to the party. the "bubble" has been over for over a year now and it was not different from any other bubbles that we had seen before it and the market is not that different either. the only thing you might find different is the duration of the different stages that the market HAS TO take but that is not enough to make it "different".
the rest of the things you are putting in this wall of text is just you trying to fill in some space pretending you are reasoning....

Bitcoin's bubble has come and gone and we all witness it. The time for its coming back is what we are expecting within the first quarter of the year 2019, then bitcoin will have a breather rally for all to see.

Bitcoin itself is not a bubble, but rich people began to pump up bitcoin and it was blown away. This is a normal phenomenon and now many people have learned about Bitcoin and they are willing to invest if the market turns around.

in fact, the condition of bitcoin is currently going up and down and this happens not only this year, but the previous year has also happened. so I think the bitcoin up and down is certainly reasonable.

It is in the trend and is considered normal as far as every pro out there is concerned. My friend's advice? Don't falter, we haven't seen the bottom yet. Once we have seen it, it will go back up again.

It really is. We just have to wait.

wait till "your" death..... ::)

It's not the bubble. Seems like some people heard the word bubble and now use it everywhere. Understand me please, only in the situation when bitcoin will touch 0 it may be called as bubble. Right now it's a simple temporary drop.

upvote

Anything that has a price and opportunity for speculation can be a bubble. It is very difficult to determine the value of something. Especially when it is traded in several markets around the world.

If you believe the price will stabilize at 1400USD, you do not believe it's a bubble. You're just betting on a devaluation.

And yet lots of asic miners made it, apparently even Pangolin has successfully sent them via DHL. Its actually not banned, but you are supposed to get a "mining/import permit". There is also people smuggling them, at least last year when things were bad with customs.

A $150 S9 in Venezuela ends being sold in the local market for about $500. Quite the irony...

If you steal electricity for mining, you will probably go to prison and all your equipment seized. Electricity here is cheap enough so there is no need to do that, and its very stupid to do it... Just rent an industrial type warehouse and use the capacity installed. There are LOTS of empty warehouses due to the broken economy...

There are people farming Runescape and other games, others doing various internet jobs, of course. Anything paid in foreign/crypto currency, can bring food to your table.

Now you have to understand the authorities are corrupt, if you "look" rich, they will want to extort money from you, regardless. But if you have acquaintances in the right positions, things can magically enter. Sometimes its simply luck, either good or bad.

To install a big farm you'll probably want to obtain a permit and meet with the gov officials first, just to reduce the chance of wrong doings from the authorities. There is an institution that "regulates" crypto activities, but of course this is a Maduro government institution, things might change completely if Maduro falls, as he might due to the recent development...

You never measure loss over a period of 1 year because it's meaningless. It can be more than 100% yearly loss and many stocks have experienced it! A cycle in traditional markets usually takes much longer than 1 year. Sometimes more than 10 years. Are you trying to intentionally make it look worse than it is?


The money is never lost! It only goes from one asset to the other. It changes form but it isn't lost. If somebody bought Bitcoin high and sold low his money did not disappear. It changed its form from digital decentralized money into fiat money. You can't sue anybody for being an idiot who buys high and sells low.

Sounds simple right? Yet i'm surprised about how hard it is to understand for some minds though. I believe however that people will start to notice something about it in the future and slowly but surely get more traction while we go towards mass adoption of the currency itself.

The best part of it is that whether people look for profits or help improve the world a bit, everybody will win.

I've seen this rise and fall so many times now, the long term holders and investors in the REAL economy of crypto will succeed. Cryptos are here to stay. They are the evolution of money.

some people can't see the trends on time, they are always late and switch directions way too late. in case of OP he is obviously just realized that he has lost money because he bought in to the "actual" bubble and never changed his direction with the market an now that we are already 85% below the ATH he has realized there was a bubble and now started to change his direction missing the fact that he is once again too late since the downtrend is almost done!

Buying high and selling low is your choice to make and no one will get arrested for that ,this bubble is indeed different I bet before we see another bullrun will take years and many who think they are strong now will eventually give up ,this will be the longest bearish market in history of bitcoin

The dot-com bubble was a historic economic bubble and period of excessive speculation mainly in the United States that occurred roughly from 1995 to 2000. Most large IT companies took massive hits during this period, but they managed to bounce back in less than 5 to 7 years and they are giants now.

Bitcoin is the largest Crypto currency out there and it can be compared to the large IT companies back then. Bitcoin will bounce back again and when it does, it will be larger than these IT companies combined.  ;)

Very well put. Kind of hard to argue against it. One person recently asked when Bitcoin would return back to "normal", sent them a link to an all-time price chart and asked which side of the spike was "normal"? Lol. Bitcoin is cool, and useful in some applications such as, maybe, international transactions, but probably best not to treat it as a store of value, unless you have a small amount for speculation... and speculation doesn't look too hopeful for BTC right now.

Have a good day,
The Cyberius team

I read in the article and a video that it is a bubble. Even Warren Buffet consider it as a bubble. Immature people and even kids who don't understand economics enters in the trading of bitcoins. And easy to buy platforms helped it touch high. But once the selling started, the buyers were limited and collapsed rapidly from the peak within few months. Chek out this http://www.cuttingchai.info/reasons-to-not-invest-in-bitcoin/ (http://www.cuttingchai.info/reasons-to-not-invest-in-bitcoin/) and watch the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUPn2rZhD00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUPn2rZhD00)
<a href="http://www.cuttingchai.info/reasons-to-not-invest-in-bitcoin/">5 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE BITCOINS IN 2018</a>

Bubble or not, bullish and bearish periods are cyclical, even if sometines some trends (current bearish trend) don't seem to ever finish.

I've been in this since the drop at 233. Watched it go up to 1k, drop, watch it go to 20k, and drop again. Cycle continues, but emotions tell you that it shouldn't.

Many well known and smart people were calling the Internet a bubble. Many smart people predicted we would never switch from horse carriages to cars because cars are loud, slow, smelly, expensive, difficult to operate. Most of these people who are now calling bitcoin a bubble were saying the same thing in 2015.

It's just something worth thinking about.

I going to keep my Bitcoins and the altcoins I havn't sold already. This Bitcoin charts don't look like it finish its corrections. But I still think people will start buy back into bitcoins when the FIAT debt Bubble bursting for real, if that take a few more months or it will take a few years, are not easy to predict but it will happen and then Bitcoins will be a good thing to have in your profolie.

I've lived through a few bubbles in my time. The first was Dot Com, where I didn't know what was happening but I learned what a bubble was.

The Irish property bubble which burst around 2007/08 with the financial crisis was the big one. From having seen the Dot Com bubble burst my spidey sense started tingling round 2005/6, I was thinking "Hmm, this all seems a bit familiar".

I was right in the middle of that one, lots of people round my age got caught up in it.

So when crypto came along it was like history repeating to me. The similarities were stark.

However, there are also opportunities to be had during the crash.

There is the saying that "the time to buy is when there is blood running in the streets."

I'm sure you could have picked up lots of good tech stocks for pennies back in 2001/2002. However there were a lot of shit stocks that were worth nothing then and still worth nothing now.

Dot com boom was a bubble and amazon was just a shite website selling books. Ecommerce didn't disappear, it evolved and so did amazon. Crypto will also evolve, and bitcoin will rise again just like amazon

Bitcoin will certainly evolve and also crypto and from any perspective btc cannot considered as a bubble because the current price dip won't last long because we all saw how bitcoin rose in 2017 from Zero price and why it cannot happen again when its price is $3,422 at the moment so possibility is much higher

the bubble will always come in no time. Just prepared it earlier so we dont miss the train to the successful and i manage to get some it on time. What i can tell that no one will know when it will come but this time it is the time for bull to come.

We've been talking about this balloon thing for years. It is not possible to understand how a similarity occurs between Bitcoin and Tulip. Bitcoin has been adopted by hundreds of thousands of people worldwide. Most of the rest of the world is looking hot. In the near future, I believe that the belief in Bitcoin will increase again.

Innovations have always been accepted. Bitcoin is just trying to bypass this first stage.

Bitcoin bubble will continue to blow bigger and will no burst in the next two generation to come, that is what make it different from other bubble in history. Bitcoin is here to stay and I will never refer to it as a bubble because it is not bitcoin is a currency traded on so many market around the globe with decent value against other currencies.

i hope that this new bubble leads towards the beginning of a new bull market, however it is different from the other previous ones this time the growth of bitcoin value does not drag up also the altcoin (as value)...

I think this bull now id different and looks like altcoins still suffer from and some of them not grow, maybe the bitcoin will stop somehow to 10000$ this month if people will start sell after see the grow.

The statement of OP almost all about his/her speculation there are so many possible things that can happen in the market right now. You are saying it will take 20-30 years well then the value of bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies are already gain 50% of its loss way back 2018. I assumed you are aware of this. We should just let bitcoin do its work and just believe in it.

It's different, yes, but there were also situation where altcoins were not rising along with Bitcoin. So this is not such a new and surprising situation to me. If you say that Bitcoin might stop at 10000$ this month that means that it has to come there first. Will see if current bubble will last that long.

It is not correct to speak about Bitcoin like a bubble, as bubbles burst always. As you say yourself, BTC will not do it in the nearest time. Soon, crypto will be recognized as an alternative currency.

Bubble is something that can burst and disappear from the face of the earth. Bitcoin is never a bubble since is existence is much alive. Giving such logic that whatever that rise's and falls back in price is a bubble is totally wrong idea

OP is trying to make a point that bitcoin bubble is different from other bubbles because it's global.
I know for a fact that bitcoin is not a bubble. It has periods where it goes into speculative bubbles but it has its stable growing value that is based on on simple supply and demand.
There's adoption and infrastructures being built on top. With every upgrade like segwit LN and with every new software and hardware wallet it becomes stronger and more popular and with it more valuable! Bubbles burst but they always find its bottom and you could see one being tested earlier this year.

I don’t think it is a bubble at all. The prices are here to stay or keep rising

Also, how exactly is Bitcoin a "scam"? Because the $ equivalent goes down? Or because 3rd party exchanges are manipulating certain aspects of their numbers? Neither of these things makes Bitcoin a scam. Bitcoin offers no promises relating to $ value, nor is it connected to any central department or company. It's decentralized by design. Bitcoin never said it would be worth $1, $100, $1,000 or $1 million.

It's a decentralized digital currency, that offers insanely fast and cheap ways of sending any amount of said currency around the world in seconds to anyone, regardless of their nationality, race or religion. What's the scam exactly?

Bitcoin Bubble is large and it's increasing with passing time yet the Bitcoin bubble is different as it has an international cloud surrounding it.