BITCOIN: This Bubble is Different

[btc-room101]

Bubbles are quite common in human history, whether they be tulips, south-sea, Mississippi, the 1929 stock-market, the 1978 gold mania, thoughout human history there have been bubbles.

A tell-tale of the bubble, is the parabolic rise, 20X in one year like BTC 2017 is a parabolic rise, one thing with all parabolic rises in human-history, they always come down.

The only mania that came back ( even for a short time ) was south-sea bubble, it was a dead-cat bounce, that even wiped out sir isaac newton, so it shows you have its not just idiot that venture back into a collapsed bubble,

But one clear pattern of bubble collapses, is the time to return, now with tulip, south-sea, Mississippi they never really came back, but the stock market post 1929 did come back, but it took 30 years, and the gold collapse post 1978-1982 bubble did come back, but it took 20 years.

On average it take 1-1/2 generations for people to forget they got wiped out ( 90% loss, or even 100% loss ), this is the nature of bubbles post collapse.

Today BITCOIN has collapsed down 90% year-2-date, and still dropping like a rock from a hot-air balloon.

The pump&dumpers say many things, ... it will come back, this bubble is different, BTC is not the stock-market or gold

Well BTC is just another time-series of data that can be statistically measured just like all others, whether it be rail-roads from the 1800's, or air-transportation from the 1960's bubbles are bubbles, and they always come back to earth. The question is do they return? and when do they return.

BTC is NOT valuable in and of itself, its only as good as its 'brand', thus BTC is much like the south-sea bubble, or Mississippi bubble those bubbles were largely inflated by fake-fiat, ,not unlike BTC today.

The other problem with BTC is that its easily duplicated, say now there are 2100 clones, and it appears another 100 added every month, as any idiot can copy&paste source, and add another clone; Anybody can fork BITCOIN and promote it, just like BITCOIN-GOLD which was sold for $500 before it was even forked in Russian futures.

BITCOIN was/is an INTERNATIONAL bubble, which is quite different than any bubble we have seen before, no bubble in the past has been on the INTERNATIONAL scale. The entire world speculated in BITCOIN in 2017, which is why it was able to rise to such a huge capitilization.

The problem now is there are 1,000's of lawsuits pending all over the world, because some +$500 BILLION was lost, some speculate over $800 Billion. Gone evaporated, which means millions of people lost their lost savings, they are angry, they are mad, and they will seek restitution.

A student of south-sea bubble, or Mississippi should know that post bubble many promoters were murdered and sent to jail. These kinds of bubbles never end well for those who promote them, e.g. pump&dump as seen here on bitcointalk.org

In summary, even if BITCOIN does come back, it will take anywhere between 20-30 years, over a generation for people to forget their loss. Certainly bitcoin will bump along, and have some value, but the speculative bubble we witnessed will not return, as never before in history, has a bubble came back in a short time period, and that's for the good-stuff.

A price of something is only as valuable as people will pay, the RISE of BITCOIN was largely the FED-FIAT post 2008, some $4 trillion USD were dumped on the world, and obviously $1T made its way to BTC, most likely the QE is over, which means that there is no source to re-inflate BITCOIN in the near future.

Most are aware that we're in a depression since 2008, and the future is dire for the USD, typically when the economy's of the world go to shit people invest in real assets, BITCOIN at best is a transactional currency, a holding-tank to transfer money A to B. Holding BITCOIN has 50/50 chance of total loss of capital, thus during a world depression people will not be parking their wealth in BITCOIN, but if millions use it day-2-day to move wealth around, the price will stabilize to some value ( IMHO around $1400 USD )

[smartbitcoininvestor]

I think this bubble will eventually lead to a bull run. So far, Bitcoin has already crossed the $10,000 price threshold, so it is likely that it will cross it again soon.

It is only a 10 year old security so Bitcoin has a long way to go to improve its volatility and value.

[franky1]

90%
??
sorry but no

you dont understand the many layers of value.
yes the spike of 2017 went up beyond value and into FOMO speculation and was not sustainable. but bitcoin is still above the cheapest cost to mine bitcoin. it has not crashed. it just corrects down if it PRICE moves too far away from cheapest cost VALUE to mine it.

your thought process would have a point in a asset with zero cost in creation such as PoS coins but its not the same for PoW coins.

as for 90%
20k down to $2k....... never happened this year

anyway. keep an eye on the hashrates
using canaan(avalon) discount $200 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 83
using bitmains s9 discounted at $400 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 104
using bitmains s15 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 117
using bitmains lastgen s9's multiply the number of exahash by 154

and you will have a good range of mining costs which prices like to keep around where there is not much speculation

if prices go too far above that range then yep, pure speculation.

[btc-room101]

90%
??
sorry but no

you dont understand the many layers of value.
yes the spike of 2017 went up beyond value and into FOMO speculation and was not sustainable. but bitcoin is still above the cheapest cost to mine bitcoin. it has not crashed. it just corrects down if it PRICE moves too far away from cheapest cost VALUE to mine it.

your thought process would have a point in a asset with zero cost in creation such as PoS coins but its not the same for PoW coins.

as for 90%
20k down to $2k....... never happened this year

anyway. keep an eye on the hashrates
using canaan(avalon) discount $200 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 83
using bitmains s9 discounted at $400 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 104
using bitmains s15 asics multiply the number of exahash mining by 117
using bitmains lastgen s9's multiply the number of exahash by 154

and you will have a good range of mining costs which prices like to keep around where there is not much speculation

if prices go too far above that range then yep, pure speculation.

R U a retarded bot??

whattomine.com, publishes that an s-9 running at $0.10 per kwh generates a whopping loss of $1/day, run an s-9 that and lose $1 a day, who in the hell is going to do this bullshit, and then ask why most miners are pulling the plug?

Me thinks these miners will end up in some place maybe venezuela, where people can steal electricity.

Who in the hell is mining, I don't know anywhere you can get power that cheap, I get bullshit ad's from bitmain everyday promoting the s-9 for $100, IMHO they can't even give them away, somebody in CHINA will buy them for $1/each, and market them as space heaters.

[mk4]

Me thinks these miners will end up in some place maybe venezuela, where people can steal electricity.

It's going to be quite difficult to get mining hardware into Venezuela, as the Venezuelan government has banned the imports of cryptocurrency mining equipment[1][2]. Probably the only way for Venezuelan to mine is to use their personal hardware(which is definitely not profitable when talking about mining BTC). Venezuelans are going to be farming RuneScape gold for a while.

[1] https://www.ccn.com/venezuela-bans-imports-of-cryptocurrency-mining-equipment-report/
[2] https://blockexplorer.com/news/venezuela-bans-crypto-mining-rigs-from-entering-the-country/

[Accounting87]

Bubbles show weaknesses in society and in the mentality of a person. A desire to make a fortune in no time together with lack of financial knowledge have always led to collapse. However, crypto offers brand new opportunities, and if they are duly seized, crypto will become a new era in the history of finances.

[AAKODI]

Bitcoin cannot be considered as a bubble because the current price dip won't last long and Bitcoin will be better than fine in the future and many predict Bitcoin will be considered as a mainstream currency in the world and Bitcoin will definitely change the inefficient banking system and other traditional and non advanced organizations by proving blockchain based decentralized cryptocurrency transaction system to make faster, secure and better payments and transactions for any need from anywhere in the world at any time so in the future these qualities will make Bitcoin more popular among many individuals in the world so even the price has dropped there will be a certain rise very soon and that is why this is not even closer to a bubble

[Red-Apple]

what a long load of crap about bitcoin. i sometimes wonder how old are those who come up with these stuff! because someone with basic understanding of economics and value of things wouldn't even say 80% of the nonsense that OP posted here.

[davis196]

There's no international bubble?Are you kidding me?
Every big multinational corporation is an international bubble.Amazon,Apple,Facebook,the list oges on and on...
Their stocks are pumped and overpriced,due to the fiat money printing machine.They are far worse bubbles than bitcoin.

[SIDDHI777]

Like always this price drop which seems like a burst of a bubble will led to a high price increase because even Bitcoin price dropped it will recover perfectly so definitely it will reach to it's correct price in the future but it might take a while to happen that and the only thing it needs is more time and with this kind of price there will be a certain level of demand increase because many new traders will attracted due to the lower price and it can also help to increase the value and recover quickly

[BrewMaster]

sorry sweetheart you are way too late to the party. the "bubble" has been over for over a year now and it was not different from any other bubbles that we had seen before it and the market is not that different either. the only thing you might find different is the duration of the different stages that the market HAS TO take but that is not enough to make it "different".
the rest of the things you are putting in this wall of text is just you trying to fill in some space pretending you are reasoning....

[oceantiger]

Bitcoin's bubble has come and gone and we all witness it. The time for its coming back is what we are expecting within the first quarter of the year 2019, then bitcoin will have a breather rally for all to see.

[bellamente]

Bitcoin itself is not a bubble, but rich people began to pump up bitcoin and it was blown away. This is a normal phenomenon and now many people have learned about Bitcoin and they are willing to invest if the market turns around.

[fianaindriati]

Bitcoin's bubble has come and gone and we all witness it. The time for its coming back is what we are expecting within the first quarter of the year 2019, then bitcoin will have a breather rally for all to see.

in fact, the condition of bitcoin is currently going up and down and this happens not only this year, but the previous year has also happened. so I think the bitcoin up and down is certainly reasonable.

[shinharu10282016]

Bitcoin's bubble has come and gone and we all witness it. The time for its coming back is what we are expecting within the first quarter of the year 2019, then bitcoin will have a breather rally for all to see.

in fact, the condition of bitcoin is currently going up and down and this happens not only this year, but the previous year has also happened. so I think the bitcoin up and down is certainly reasonable.

It is in the trend and is considered normal as far as every pro out there is concerned. My friend's advice? Don't falter, we haven't seen the bottom yet. Once we have seen it, it will go back up again.

It really is. We just have to wait.

[KingScorpio]

Bitcoin's bubble has come and gone and we all witness it. The time for its coming back is what we are expecting within the first quarter of the year 2019, then bitcoin will have a breather rally for all to see.

in fact, the condition of bitcoin is currently going up and down and this happens not only this year, but the previous year has also happened. so I think the bitcoin up and down is certainly reasonable.

It is in the trend and is considered normal as far as every pro out there is concerned. My friend's advice? Don't falter, we haven't seen the bottom yet. Once we have seen it, it will go back up again.

It really is. We just have to wait.

wait till "your" death.....

[Taki]

It's not the bubble. Seems like some people heard the word bubble and now use it everywhere. Understand me please, only in the situation when bitcoin will touch 0 it may be called as bubble. Right now it's a simple temporary drop.

[KingScorpio]

sorry sweetheart you are way too late to the party. the "bubble" has been over for over a year now and it was not different from any other bubbles that we had seen before it and the market is not that different either. the only thing you might find different is the duration of the different stages that the market HAS TO take but that is not enough to make it "different".
the rest of the things you are putting in this wall of text is just you trying to fill in some space pretending you are reasoning....

upvote

[vit05]

Anything that has a price and opportunity for speculation can be a bubble. It is very difficult to determine the value of something. Especially when it is traded in several markets around the world.

If you believe the price will stabilize at 1400USD, you do not believe it's a bubble. You're just betting on a devaluation.

[Artemis3]

Me thinks these miners will end up in some place maybe venezuela, where people can steal electricity.

It's going to be quite difficult to get mining hardware into Venezuela, as the Venezuelan government has banned the imports of cryptocurrency mining equipment[1][2]. Probably the only way for Venezuelan to mine is to use their personal hardware(which is definitely not profitable when talking about mining BTC). Venezuelans are going to be farming RuneScape gold for a while.

[1] https://www.ccn.com/venezuela-bans-imports-of-cryptocurrency-mining-equipment-report/
[2] https://blockexplorer.com/news/venezuela-bans-crypto-mining-rigs-from-entering-the-country/

And yet lots of asic miners made it, apparently even Pangolin has successfully sent them via DHL. Its actually not banned, but you are supposed to get a "mining/import permit". There is also people smuggling them, at least last year when things were bad with customs.

A $150 S9 in Venezuela ends being sold in the local market for about $500. Quite the irony...

If you steal electricity for mining, you will probably go to prison and all your equipment seized. Electricity here is cheap enough so there is no need to do that, and its very stupid to do it... Just rent an industrial type warehouse and use the capacity installed. There are LOTS of empty warehouses due to the broken economy...

There are people farming Runescape and other games, others doing various internet jobs, of course. Anything paid in foreign/crypto currency, can bring food to your table.

Now you have to understand the authorities are corrupt, if you "look" rich, they will want to extort money from you, regardless. But if you have acquaintances in the right positions, things can magically enter. Sometimes its simply luck, either good or bad.

To install a big farm you'll probably want to obtain a permit and meet with the gov officials first, just to reduce the chance of wrong doings from the authorities. There is an institution that "regulates" crypto activities, but of course this is a Maduro government institution, things might change completely if Maduro falls, as he might due to the recent development...