Bitcoin Forum

I am not rushing to buy bitcoin, i am not afraid to miss the rally simply because of the nature of the market cycles.



https://www.sanlamgis.com/behaviouralfinance/PublishingImages/Dictionary%20Cards%20-%20Stock%20market%20crash.jpg


It is quite impossible to predict the bottom or the top of any trend, but one thing for sure that these cycles apply to every single market.

 
https://i.imgur.com/VOmtc2t.jpg


looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days). before breaking out of the massive triangle.

there is a very good chance the period of accumulation and anger-depression for this bear trend to be shorter or longer than the previews one, but one thing for sure is that it has too take some good amount of time which in my opinion a few months at least.  according to the historical data the rally should start around OCT 2019.

there is no way the rally will start over night and recover all these dips instantly, no market does this. that is why I do not try to catch the falling knife, and FOMOing over every single green candle like many others do.

I see a lot of people start jumping in and calling for " moon is here, buy now before it's too late".

I understand that people are afraid to miss the train, thinking the price can move up real fast similar to last year crazy bull run, what they don't know is that the real rally only starts after breaking out of the current ATH.

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).
the moment it broke out of the ATH , it starting going in almost an angle of 90 degree with nearly no correction all the way to almost 20k.

of course it much better to enter some where close to the bottom, but the bottom can be any where, and as long as the market is taking massive dips like this, then it's unlikely to be the bottom.

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here, but indeed it will always correct, for all i know price could go back up all the way to 5.5k to re-test it but that will only be the fuel for a further dip and not the begging of a rally. 


unless you are buying for the very long term ( years ) then i rather wait for a better signal to buy. so from now to the accumulation stage, we could see many bull traps, 10-20% up , people start jumping on the MOON boat only to end up sinking.

and of course, this is not a financial advice, I am only sharing my thoughts. feel free you share yours.

for sure. I think likely that panic selling from the BCH fork chaos was the capitulation phase and we've now entered the bottom range. It might dip into the 2000s, but in general I'd say we're in the range we'll be for the most part until the middle of next year. There will be a lengthy transition phase from bear market to bull market and we're probably just at the start of that now (whereas before the BCH chaos caused the massive drop we seemed to be in that phase since early september in the 6000s).

Everyone should be buying for the long term. So everyone should start accumulating now and continue accumulating throughout this bottoming out process that will likely go well into 2019.

because there were not many things to drive a big price increase, things like:

- japan accepting bitcoin
- bitcoin cash hard fork (free coins)
- Then had news from South Korea
- launch of bitcoin futures

all this on last year made people to think that the price would reach $40,000 as some analysts had been talking


I also think the same thing

I'm staying in until 2022 at the latest; if it hasn't done something spectacular by then, I think I'll withdraw about 90% of what I have invested.

if this theory does apply, in 2022 we will look back at the charts, and regret not selling the wife and kids for BTC  ;D

When CME futures were launched, it actually triggered a big decrease in price. BTC never recovered.

And look what happened with the recent BCH hard fork. Free coins, right? Both coins combined are worth much less than the original BCH, and the entire market has crashed. That's a stark contrast to the "hard fork = free coins = everything pumps" mentality of 2017.

It just goes to show you: good news doesn't mean rising price. In a bear market, good news doesn't matter at all. Nobody cares, everybody sells.

I dont buy the CME story - just compare their volume to bitmex lol

the recovery will take a long time not because of some imaginary market cycle or definitely not because sometime in the past the same trend lasted X number of days.

it will take a long time because of the incidents of last month which led to an unexpected crash of the price that led to fear and lack of confidence and for that come come back it takes time. we also have accumulation to account for which needs a long time.

in other words if the manipulation of last month didn't happen, price would have already been on the rise and the downtrend would have ended.

Makes me thing we are still in denial and far away from the bottom lol

I understand from one of the post here that Bobby Lee said "bitcoin will be $333,333 by 2022" therefore I strongly believe that now the cryptocurrencies market is going to be going down.  New investors has to come in to push bitcoin upwards.
Those that are selling now are going to regret in future.  Those that sold their coins when bitcoin went down in 2013 regretted when it was up last year.

It was more of a response to the idea that "good news causes price to rise." It often doesn't.

I'm not saying CME leads the market at all. They shouldn't even at higher volumes since there's no way to directly arbitrage the market anyway.

the "news" caused the rise not the launch itself. it is the old buy the rumor sell the news or whatever :D
when the hype of Futures started the price started rising with it and broke the $10k and headed for $20k. by the time the market actually began the hype was over and the rise with it and we were in a bubble so the drop started.
it is like halving that people love to talk about these days. the price doesn't rise because reward halves on a certain block. it rises because of the hype of it and it starts rising 1 or 2 months prior to halving when the actual hype begins. then the real rise comes about 4-6 months after the halving as the injection of new coins by miners into market slows down and halves.

as for this BCH fork it was free coins for BCH holders not bitcoin holders and it is not just a fork it is a full on war between two parties with near equal power. but the last year's fork was free coins for bitcoin holders also it was a war but one side (BCH) was so weak compared to bitcoin side. and also it coincided with bitcoin fork to activate SegWit so it wasn't all about the free coins it was a rise due to scaling bitcoin and moving forward.

Markets are driven by fear and greed.This is the main reason I don't believe in technical analysis,mathematical/statistical models or drawing random lines on some charts.
Currently the fear is dominating over greed and it will take lots of time(maybe 2 years),before the greed starts to dominate over fear.

2019 suppose to be a big year, I mean not because of what happened in 2018 but because what could happen in 2020.

First of all, we saw that there is no more trusting to miners, since the miners were the ones that caused all of this chaos to begin with and when the difficulty drops a lot we see that the cost of bitcoin mining drops with it and when we said bitcoin will be stable at $6k we said it because that was a bit above what the cost for mining but now it dropped as further as $3.4k.

So, why trust the 2020 halving but that is also a valid point for increase since even that $3.4k will become $10k or even higher and there is 2 more years for that which means the difficulty will eventually go higher as well. There will be ETF's probably and there will be traditional investor coming in too. It would be really difficult for 2019 to go low when you combine all things that will happen.

I don't look at the charts for indicators as Bitcoins is not like our stocks, where past trends can dictate the outcome of present or future prices. I believe Bitcoins prices should be judged on the basis of Fomo, and public sentiments which I feel are increasing day by day as public is demanding Bitcoins etf approval from sec. Also with the launch of Nasdaq Bitcoins futures, Bakkt coming we shall see a price rally, and if Sec approves the etf it shall definitely reach 15k or more in Q1 of 2019.

with the rate the downhill is going, it is really possible.

The patter of the new rally starting from the point of previous ATH is not going to last for long, because that would mean exponential growth over the years. This cycle can easily be the last of it's kind, and the swings of next cycles can become much lower. I just don't see Bitcoin going to six figures in the coming years - there's no fundamentals for that, people are not going to massively switch from banks to Bitcoin, a global economic crisis won't make people massively buy Bitcoin either.

This is a terrible strategy, if you wait till 2022 and your fears turn out true bitcoin may very well be worth a buck by that point.

why is it terrible?
i agree that it is not the best strategy but it is nowhere near terrible either. you want to invest in bitcoin for long term not short term if you are not a trader. and that is how you do it. you buy in the yearly dips and hold it for a year at least. all these ups and downs that are causing drama are for short term.
additionally you always invest what you can afford to lose. it is true that bitcoin might be worth $1 by 2022 but so does anything else you ever invest in. as an investor you weigh the risks and rewards and then invest which means there is also a chance that bitcoin is worth $100k and based on that you have a risk/reward ratio.

There are lots of factors that affects the value of such coins, I presume that it's not those newbies triggered about the fall of prices but rather some big whales who somehow controlling the supply of BTC. This is how business works, in order to have a cycle and we should try to accept that kind of fact.

i agree with you. Those manipulators had make difficult for crypto to rise as they can influence the market situation while the prices are in lower level. I think those manipulators don't want to bring the price higher if they can't get the right price for them at the bottom.

there is no way that this cycle will be the last of it's kind, look at the stock market over the last 100 years. it always moves in 3 main phases. Bull,Bear and Sideways before the next bull swing.

however you are right in terms of % growth , there is no way that every bull phase will have the same % of growth, but every time a bear market ends, a new ATH has to be made, for all i know the next ATH could be just about 40k, it doesn't have to do the same growth in % of 2015-2017 , it is not very possible, the bigger the market cap the harder the growth, but every end of a bull run has to mark a higher high than the previews ATH. this is the nature of every market on planet earth.

It doesn't matter if you feel confident that this rally will continue in a prolonged manner, but the nature of the market cannot be nailed just like that, because we don't know what will happen tomorrow or the coming week at the price of bitcoin, maybe the price will suddenly rise ( deviated from what you said). Sorry, that's the only hope I have at the moment.


You are right even though this strategy can be considered old-fashioned but this one strategy the fact's effective and real able to penetrate various bad phases (bear/side).

i never bought into the idea that bitcoin would benefit from an economic crisis. probably just the opposite.

but i don't think bitcoin needs that---or for people to abandon banks---for exponential adoption to continue. i think the store-of-value/investment use case coupled with bitcoin's network liquidity might be all that's required.

think about middle class 401k and pension fund investors, physical gold bugs, institutional trade desks, and so on. even JP morgan believes (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/04/bitcoin-could-new-gold-says-jp-morgan/) bitcoin "could join gold as a reliable, long-term way to store wealth" and become "a more traditional asset class". maybe that's a longshot, but if it truly comes to resemble a gold-like asset, we could even see governments hold reserves.

if you consider the extreme scarcity of bitcoins (most of the supply has already been mined and much of it probably lost), i'd be really surprised if this past bubble was the last.

Even if it drops a lot more to a point like $1.4k which was the previous all time high before last years rally it still doesn't mean bitcoin is dead, we are talking about a coin that has been less than all these prices except for the past 2 summers, instead we are focusing on how bitcoin is going to die and is over with.

We have nasdaq working on a new ETF, we have SEC working on deciding on the ETF and we have Bakkt hoping to provide another, we have bank of america doing patents like crazy and we have wall street banks investing into crypto companies as well and we have been at a higher price than any price in crypto history except last 1.5 year.

Regardless of all that here we are talking about how bitcoin is not going up any time soon. I am sorry to say this but I do not agree with you at all.

You are right but in my opinion the price of bitcoin will grow next year, maybe not so much as most expect but right now i think whales are filling their bags with a lot of coins not only bitcoin and they know what to do. I expect for a 15,000$ price next year or a bit more.

well if the price rises and the trend turns fully bullish then sure as hell i will buy, I do not like catching falling knives, everything now points to lower prices, even if we shot to 6k the next hour this does not change the overall sentiment of this extra-bearish market. I think the biggest mistake one can make is blindly catching a falling knife simply because they are afraid to miss the bottom.

Nasdaq is planning to launch their own futures market, haven't heard anything about an ETF. More importantly, both Nasdaq and Bakkt won't be able to launch any sort of product without regulatory approval (which they don't have yet), and while I initially believed it would be an easy okay, I'm somewhat more bearish towards these platforms right now.

As for the patents of BAC, it's not much to be excited about. Hundreds of entities are securing crypto related patents on a daily basis, which is more like domain hoarding; it's great to have in your portfolio, but only time will tell which ones will be the money makers. Most of these patents will expire unused anyway.

Don't focus on external elements. Focus on what Bitcoin has to offer going forward (i.e. LN, Schnorr, side chains, etc). Fundamentals we can build on. :)

Bitcoin is too unpredictable and probably it will not grow for a long time. Despite this I will still hold my coins and wait time when it will go to the moon.

2022 is very far away and by that time, bitcoin will make its all time high again. So if you can hold it by that time, you should be sure that you will be millionaire by that time. Not many people has such holding powers and that's the reason they want bitcoin to rise fastly.

Of course to recover bitcoin can not be in the near term, bitcoin will take a long time to recover, and from that we must have patience and keep holding to get better results than bitcoin.

Nothing is permanent in cryptocurrency, yes a lot of them made profit last year and similarly a lot of them lose this year. which seems to be market is unpredictable and anything can happen it still looks reddish currently and I believe BTC will recover very soon.

I agree with what you say if bitcoin will not recover in a short time, I think bitcoin takes 2-3 years to return to the pump path. I say so because now Bitcoin has lost a lot of trust from its investors.

I never believe in those predictions and charts analysis.
Simply, you can't predict Bitcoin price by reading and analysing a chart.
The market is manipulated by whales and news spread on Medias and you can't see them both in these charts.

so how do you place your entries/exists ? magic ball? or just hodl from 20k to 3k? i would like to know of a WORKING way other than TA. thanks.

It's definitely not the last bubble, but there's some chance that the last rally was the last great bubble with that crazy x40 growth. Maybe the next ATH will be only $40,000, and after that we'll have a slower growth up to 6 figures. If we'll see institutional and mass adoption and maturity, they can translate into lower volatility and calmer markets in long term.

You may be right. I have seen much technical analysis who thinks like you. But In my opinion, the cycle in which we are in is acting faster than 2014. This means it is also possible that we are at the end of the depression phase and the reversal is near.

Been thinking the same thing for days now, but of course, it is a market and nothing is certain and it all depends on the angle you want to be looking at the chart anyway to be able to call if we have even hit the level of capitulation or not. For now, we just let the market play its thing out, one thing is certain though, which is the fact that we are still in a bear trend and how ever the bears want to push it down the more, it just makes a lot of sense to buy more at the end of it all, once the market starts showing signs of recovery. Let's see!

Whales are always going to have the best part of the market, but there is nothing whales will do if the market itself is not bearish and there is absolutely no condition to be pulling it up. I said that because, if there is some news or some real life usage right now that would be bringing in some high level of demand no matter what, the market will most definitely be reacting to that, so in a way, asides whales in this matter, the market itself simply have less demand than supply.

First of all, you are absolutely correct in terms of stating that bitcoin prices tend to move in cycles. Each cycle to date seems like it is somewhere between 3-4 years.

I also expect prices to potentially dip by a bit more, and move sideways due to the fact that I think that we're close to the capitulation phase of the market cycle. There is virtually no chance for recovery to happen this year or even first half of next year in my opinion, if you look back towards the 2014-15 bear market which was quite similar (not going to be 100% accurate, of course).

Honestly, I wouldn't bother trying to find the exact bottom if you are a long term investor. Not only is this very improbable to do, you could miss out on a buying opportunity when you keep waiting on lower prices. In my opinion, trying to minimise your average cost per BTC is key, and right now, prices are low enough for investors to start doing so.

Am I the only one who does not follow that cycle? I really don't get anxious or depressed depending on the price of bitcoin.  Why would that matter to me? I think in terms of decades not daily valuation.

In my own perception no one can say what exactly will happen in the coming days because all things in the future are not predictable even the price of crypto because we cannot say that the mind set of people now is the same in the coming days so all things has a changes and no one can predict that, so the only things that we can do is wait and keep our hope in our heart that every things will be okay.

it seems we have the same thoughts, in my opinion the price of bitcoin is increasing not because of cycles but because of news and investor confidence. so in my opinion the price of bitcoin is increasing not because of a certain period of time.

How can there be a chart like this when everyone used the same chart for 2008 crisis and when stock markets fell in 2008 and everyone thought the market wouldn't recovered but right now bigger than it used to be ? I mean we are talking about a time period where people are really in big trouble and somehow managed to get back on their feet.

Crypto is bigger than stocks of just one country and will eventually pass those as the main investment method of the world however somehow people still think whenever there is a big rise they believe its a suckers rally.

One day bitcoin will go up again and we will see a bigger than $20k price and when that day comes everyone will realize how big of a mistake they did by not trusting bitcoin and crypto. This is a world changing system that needs to be supported by everyone.

Look the price of the bitcoin again it rising again and to those people who said bitcoin will not up just look and up the price will increasing slowly I think until they fully recover and until it will become better the value in the highest price in the year 2017.

Dude control yourself. We're not even back 1k up at this point. Stop expecting magical bull runs to happen again anytime soon. I guess the best solution for disappointments is to be realistic.

In those moments we have to have patience and observe the market and not panic and I also saw many comments from people saying that the price would fall to  $1500, I was also one of these people, however I still think it is possible to fall to that level to unless the price increases to more than $ 6000


BAKKT is the only one on this list that we have to put more hope because the others are still fairy tales


I agree

This year's crypto users are forced to hold and if you sell now then a big loss for you and this is not wanted by everyone. price reduction charts continue to occur because many users are already frustrated and they only sell not buy back, the market becomes unbalanced where the selling volume is greater than the purchases that occur and this keeps prices down. the end of 2019 is the beginning of a big jump in my opinion for crypto to be better

If you are not rushing to buy bitcoin then i will assure you the bitterness feeling when the bull or even a middle growth happen,because the value of bitcin as of today is something we must be rushed to buy,sitting at below $4,000 is a not normal situation ,so if i were you better tk purchase now or be late in the run.

https://cryptofr.com/assets/uploads/files/1545734264930-kraken-btcusd-dec-25-2018-12-32-41.png


About Bitcoin, it's also worth looking at this graph.

If we consider that Bitcoin price could overtake $4250 to go close to $5000, then it's a possibility to take into consideration a bearish trend.

RSI (in H4) is down to 40...