BTC is not going UP anytime soon and here is why.

[mikeywith]

I am not rushing to buy bitcoin, i am not afraid to miss the rally simply because of the nature of the market cycles.






It is quite impossible to predict the bottom or the top of any trend, but one thing for sure that these cycles apply to every single market.

 



looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days). before breaking out of the massive triangle.

there is a very good chance the period of accumulation and anger-depression for this bear trend to be shorter or longer than the previews one, but one thing for sure is that it has too take some good amount of time which in my opinion a few months at least.  according to the historical data the rally should start around OCT 2019.

there is no way the rally will start over night and recover all these dips instantly, no market does this. that is why I do not try to catch the falling knife, and FOMOing over every single green candle like many others do.

I see a lot of people start jumping in and calling for " moon is here, buy now before it's too late".

I understand that people are afraid to miss the train, thinking the price can move up real fast similar to last year crazy bull run, what they don't know is that the real rally only starts after breaking out of the current ATH.

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).
the moment it broke out of the ATH , it starting going in almost an angle of 90 degree with nearly no correction all the way to almost 20k.

of course it much better to enter some where close to the bottom, but the bottom can be any where, and as long as the market is taking massive dips like this, then it's unlikely to be the bottom.

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here, but indeed it will always correct, for all i know price could go back up all the way to 5.5k to re-test it but that will only be the fuel for a further dip and not the begging of a rally. 


unless you are buying for the very long term ( years ) then i rather wait for a better signal to buy. so from now to the accumulation stage, we could see many bull traps, 10-20% up , people start jumping on the MOON boat only to end up sinking.

and of course, this is not a financial advice, I am only sharing my thoughts. feel free you share yours.

[1715312777]

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[thecodebear]

for sure. I think likely that panic selling from the BCH fork chaos was the capitulation phase and we've now entered the bottom range. It might dip into the 2000s, but in general I'd say we're in the range we'll be for the most part until the middle of next year. There will be a lengthy transition phase from bear market to bull market and we're probably just at the start of that now (whereas before the BCH chaos caused the massive drop we seemed to be in that phase since early september in the 6000s).

Everyone should be buying for the long term. So everyone should start accumulating now and continue accumulating throughout this bottoming out process that will likely go well into 2019.

[Slow death]

looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days).

because there were not many things to drive a big price increase, things like:

- japan accepting bitcoin
- bitcoin cash hard fork (free coins)
- Then had news from South Korea
- launch of bitcoin futures

all this on last year made people to think that the price would reach $40,000 as some analysts had been talking

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here

I also think the same thing

[Leahhhh]

I'm staying in until 2022 at the latest; if it hasn't done something spectacular by then, I think I'll withdraw about 90% of what I have invested.

[mikeywith]

I'm staying in until 2022 at the latest; if it hasn't done something spectacular by then, I think I'll withdraw about 90% of what I have invested.

if this theory does apply, in 2022 we will look back at the charts, and regret not selling the wife and kids for BTC 

[exstasie]

looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days).

because there were not many things to drive a big price increase, things like:

- japan accepting bitcoin
- bitcoin cash hard fork (free coins)
- Then had news from South Korea
- launch of bitcoin futures

When CME futures were launched, it actually triggered a big decrease in price. BTC never recovered.

And look what happened with the recent BCH hard fork. Free coins, right? Both coins combined are worth much less than the original BCH, and the entire market has crashed. That's a stark contrast to the "hard fork = free coins = everything pumps" mentality of 2017.

It just goes to show you: good news doesn't mean rising price. In a bear market, good news doesn't matter at all. Nobody cares, everybody sells.

[criptix]

looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days).

because there were not many things to drive a big price increase, things like:

- japan accepting bitcoin
- bitcoin cash hard fork (free coins)
- Then had news from South Korea
- launch of bitcoin futures

When CME futures were launched, it actually triggered a big decrease in price. BTC never recovered.

And look what happened with the recent BCH hard fork. Free coins, right? Both coins combined are worth much less than the original BCH, and the entire market has crashed. That's a stark contrast to the "hard fork = free coins = everything pumps" mentality of 2017.

It just goes to show you: good news doesn't mean rising price. In a bear market, good news doesn't matter at all. Nobody cares, everybody sells.

I dont buy the CME story - just compare their volume to bitmex lol

[BrewMaster]

the recovery will take a long time not because of some imaginary market cycle or definitely not because sometime in the past the same trend lasted X number of days.

it will take a long time because of the incidents of last month which led to an unexpected crash of the price that led to fear and lack of confidence and for that come come back it takes time. we also have accumulation to account for which needs a long time.

in other words if the manipulation of last month didn't happen, price would have already been on the rise and the downtrend would have ended.

[criptix]

the recovery will take a long time not because of some imaginary market cycle or definitely not because sometime in the past the same trend lasted X number of days.

it will take a long time because of the incidents of last month which led to an unexpected crash of the price that led to fear and lack of confidence and for that come come back it takes time. we also have accumulation to account for which needs a long time.

in other words if the manipulation of last month didn't happen, price would have already been on the rise and the downtrend would have ended.

Makes me thing we are still in denial and far away from the bottom lol

[okala]

I understand from one of the post here that Bobby Lee said "bitcoin will be $333,333 by 2022" therefore I strongly believe that now the cryptocurrencies market is going to be going down.  New investors has to come in to push bitcoin upwards.
Those that are selling now are going to regret in future.  Those that sold their coins when bitcoin went down in 2013 regretted when it was up last year.

[exstasie]

When CME futures were launched, it actually triggered a big decrease in price. BTC never recovered.

And look what happened with the recent BCH hard fork. Free coins, right? Both coins combined are worth much less than the original BCH, and the entire market has crashed. That's a stark contrast to the "hard fork = free coins = everything pumps" mentality of 2017.

It just goes to show you: good news doesn't mean rising price. In a bear market, good news doesn't matter at all. Nobody cares, everybody sells.

I dont buy the CME story - just compare their volume to bitmex lol

It was more of a response to the idea that "good news causes price to rise." It often doesn't.

I'm not saying CME leads the market at all. They shouldn't even at higher volumes since there's no way to directly arbitrage the market anyway.

[Pursuer]

looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days).

because there were not many things to drive a big price increase, things like:

- japan accepting bitcoin
- bitcoin cash hard fork (free coins)
- Then had news from South Korea
- launch of bitcoin futures

When CME futures were launched, it actually triggered a big decrease in price. BTC never recovered.

And look what happened with the recent BCH hard fork. Free coins, right? Both coins combined are worth much less than the original BCH, and the entire market has crashed. That's a stark contrast to the "hard fork = free coins = everything pumps" mentality of 2017.

It just goes to show you: good news doesn't mean rising price. In a bear market, good news doesn't matter at all. Nobody cares, everybody sells.

the "news" caused the rise not the launch itself. it is the old buy the rumor sell the news or whatever
when the hype of Futures started the price started rising with it and broke the $10k and headed for $20k. by the time the market actually began the hype was over and the rise with it and we were in a bubble so the drop started.
it is like halving that people love to talk about these days. the price doesn't rise because reward halves on a certain block. it rises because of the hype of it and it starts rising 1 or 2 months prior to halving when the actual hype begins. then the real rise comes about 4-6 months after the halving as the injection of new coins by miners into market slows down and halves.

as for this BCH fork it was free coins for BCH holders not bitcoin holders and it is not just a fork it is a full on war between two parties with near equal power. but the last year's fork was free coins for bitcoin holders also it was a war but one side (BCH) was so weak compared to bitcoin side. and also it coincided with bitcoin fork to activate SegWit so it wasn't all about the free coins it was a rise due to scaling bitcoin and moving forward.

[davis196]

Markets are driven by fear and greed.This is the main reason I don't believe in technical analysis,mathematical/statistical models or drawing random lines on some charts.
Currently the fear is dominating over greed and it will take lots of time(maybe 2 years),before the greed starts to dominate over fear.

[wuvdoll]

2019 suppose to be a big year, I mean not because of what happened in 2018 but because what could happen in 2020.

First of all, we saw that there is no more trusting to miners, since the miners were the ones that caused all of this chaos to begin with and when the difficulty drops a lot we see that the cost of bitcoin mining drops with it and when we said bitcoin will be stable at $6k we said it because that was a bit above what the cost for mining but now it dropped as further as $3.4k.

So, why trust the 2020 halving but that is also a valid point for increase since even that $3.4k will become $10k or even higher and there is 2 more years for that which means the difficulty will eventually go higher as well. There will be ETF's probably and there will be traditional investor coming in too. It would be really difficult for 2019 to go low when you combine all things that will happen.

[Juggy777]

Markets are driven by fear and greed.This is the main reason I don't believe in technical analysis,mathematical/statistical models or drawing random lines on some charts.
Currently the fear is dominating over greed and it will take lots of time(maybe 2 years),before the greed starts to dominate over fear.

I don't look at the charts for indicators as Bitcoins is not like our stocks, where past trends can dictate the outcome of present or future prices. I believe Bitcoins prices should be judged on the basis of Fomo, and public sentiments which I feel are increasing day by day as public is demanding Bitcoins etf approval from sec. Also with the launch of Nasdaq Bitcoins futures, Bakkt coming we shall see a price rally, and if Sec approves the etf it shall definitely reach 15k or more in Q1 of 2019.

[luispitchler]

with the rate the downhill is going, it is really possible.

[hatshepsut93]

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).

The patter of the new rally starting from the point of previous ATH is not going to last for long, because that would mean exponential growth over the years. This cycle can easily be the last of it's kind, and the swings of next cycles can become much lower. I just don't see Bitcoin going to six figures in the coming years - there's no fundamentals for that, people are not going to massively switch from banks to Bitcoin, a global economic crisis won't make people massively buy Bitcoin either.

[WinslowIII]

I'm staying in until 2022 at the latest; if it hasn't done something spectacular by then, I think I'll withdraw about 90% of what I have invested.

This is a terrible strategy, if you wait till 2022 and your fears turn out true bitcoin may very well be worth a buck by that point.

[pooya87]

I'm staying in until 2022 at the latest; if it hasn't done something spectacular by then, I think I'll withdraw about 90% of what I have invested.

This is a terrible strategy, if you wait till 2022 and your fears turn out true bitcoin may very well be worth a buck by that point.

why is it terrible?
i agree that it is not the best strategy but it is nowhere near terrible either. you want to invest in bitcoin for long term not short term if you are not a trader. and that is how you do it. you buy in the yearly dips and hold it for a year at least. all these ups and downs that are causing drama are for short term.
additionally you always invest what you can afford to lose. it is true that bitcoin might be worth $1 by 2022 but so does anything else you ever invest in. as an investor you weigh the risks and rewards and then invest which means there is also a chance that bitcoin is worth $100k and based on that you have a risk/reward ratio.

[Dodoymabs]

The market drops because of newbies like they sell in low price their investment,news that like FUD or negative about crypto then manipulation so if this turn well in the future like of course if we unite to grow this or if we unite to sell our investment in high i think it will happen so just hold and wait until we experience that like believe in crypto that we can earn here

There are lots of factors that affects the value of such coins, I presume that it's not those newbies triggered about the fall of prices but rather some big whales who somehow controlling the supply of BTC. This is how business works, in order to have a cycle and we should try to accept that kind of fact.