Bitcoin Forum

Well, apparently for last two weeks conditions are not very encouraging for even bitcoin fundamentals.

Read here: https://coingape.com/bitcoin-fundamentals-stronger-weaker-huobi-weekly-report/

It really depends what you would call fundamentals.  Bitcoin doesn't have the same "fundamentals" that investors would consider when talking about a business, so it's a bit difficult to decide what Bitcoin's equivalent might be.

Arguably aspects of it like transaction fees and mining difficulty aren't really fundamentals because the underlying system is the same, in which case what is there left to analyse?

fundementals
like bitcoins original ethos
    was:
       'own your own funds'
    now:
       custodial
          exchanges
          LN vaults
          sidechain vaults

    was:
       'open barrierless'
    now:
       increased fee's barriers some users
       transaction per block limits
       preference to divert transactions off bitcoin

    was:
       'electronic cash'(medium of exchange)
    now:
       'store of value'
       other pegged networks/services to handle 'medium of exchange'
       bloated transactions for smart features that are not simple plain 'cash transfer' concept
       preference to divert 'cash' transactions off bitcoin network

As the day I see it there are a lot of good news that are coming out the market everyday, but I guess it is not enough to make Bitcoin grow for now.

Bitcoin value of price is still weak but popularity is only fundamental for Bitcoin being strong and still stand despite of all negative result for the whole year from 2017 to 2018.

Last year, very good news, but the price continued to fall. I think the Bitcoin price has nothing to do with these arguments. Let's wait a bit more.

Lower numbers have different meaning, it depends on who is looking on them. There are some already panicking and some are just chilling and saying "just like before". Having huge numbers just because of hype is much worse than having low records but in track.

Fundamentals and Technicals are always in tandem when it comes to either Bitcoin or talking to the entire market prices but these things doesn't give
assurance or guaranteed if it would be stronger or weaker.Basing on Last year responses to news even bullish ones it didn't really make some significant impact or simply not a big deal.

a topic of bitcoin fundamentals.... and many end up just talking about price.................

maybe its not the fundamentals that are weaker or stronger

but the PEOPLES understanding of what a fundamental of bitcoin is, that is weaker

EG
was:
    a currency choice to escape from fiat
now:
   a currency choice to use for a bit and then escape back to fiat with more fiat

Price is separate from bitcoin's fundamentals because nowhere when bitcoin was created was there mention of how it should be a good investment and generate fiat profit. Fundamentally bitcoin is meant to be a decentralized method of transacting, I measure that by how feasible it is to use bitcoin. For me that comes down to acceptance and efficiency. I think overall they're steadily improving but a lot more could be done. Fees are still too high and often times transactions too slow and acceptance is still a long way short of its true potential.

Applying fundamental analysis is probably that is based on the traders and investors, it also typically involves the practice of evaluating the markets trends. Since Bitcoin is decentralized we don't know in which way fundamentals getting through in a stronger way or in a weaker way which causes the price dragging down. For me, the word "fundamentals" here which means to gain insight into the real value of the currency.

how much we wait there is no size, only with trust that can wait even longer, bitcoin will be better but there is no definite time when that will happen

It's not that hard to define Bitcoin fundamentals. Technicals concentrate on the price, volume, capitalization. Fundamentals measure use cases, recognition, popularity, adoption, development and many other things.

Addresses and wallets, mined coins, network speed, laws in various countries, institutional interest. All these things continue to grow so we can say that fundamentals are getting stronger.

Bitcoin returns to its fundamental price. And I think there should be a special change in the adoption of bitcoin by the world community, in order for bitcoin to start growing.

So far bitcoin was still in stage of recovering, I cannot say that bull run is happening now. Well As I can see it now, we need to extend our patience to hold it in a long term guys. It may takes more months before bull run starts on this year 2019.

fundamentally we should not be able to count in a period of 2 weeks, it is too short and if we are forced to look in that scope, we cannot monitor it fully. just wait until the end of Q1 2019 and then we will definitely be able to see how the fundamentals are going forward

Well, I follow Bitcoin only since early 2017 but fundamentals (in equity you use quantitative and qualitative metrics) which are (directly or indirectly impacting Bitcoin) in my opinion:

Thanks to Jameson Lopp and Willy Woo

2018 commits & contributors : Bitcoin 3274 , LND 3050

Bitcoin Lightning evolution + Blockstream Satellite launch

Google scholar articles mentioning bitcoin in 2018 : 14,400 (from 136 in 2010, 4'680 2015)

Segwit adoption near 50%: https://transactionfee.info/charts/payments/segwit ( full SegWit adoption will bring blocks up to 2-4 mb range ?)

Mining difficulty strongly trending upward + GEForce GTX 1080 out of stock

Blockchain industry Venture capital funding in 2018: 3B USD from 0.8B in 2017 and 0.3B in 2014

Growth rate of Bitcoin reddit subscribers +61% in 2018.

FIO Protocol evolution : https://fio.foundation/ for a killer app, user friendly/mass adoption?

Guys like Spencer Bogart, Pantera Capital, Mike Novogratz, Tom Lee, Anthony Pompliano, Tim Draper putting huge ressources on it. (Yes they are speculators I know, but speculators also help providing blood to the bitcoin's heart. Tony Robbins also talking about it

Crypo ATM market doubled in 2018.

Can book 550K hotels in 210 countries in the world using Bitcoin : https://Travala.com

Guys like Andreas Antonopoulos, Erik Voorhees, Max Keiser supporting and educating us about Bitcoin on a daily basis.

Maybe the price overshooted fundamentals in december 2017 but they seem improving not deteriorating. Sure for now sentiment is a strong "fundamental".

Well I could write a book with all the Bitcoin direct on indirect fundamentals, ho thanks to the The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking by Saifedean Ammou.

Hope they are getting stronger. "Every year Bitcoin survives, it demonstrates the resilience and robustness of the protocol, market, and industry that supports it."

Yes, we can see a clear view on the value of BTC is very far away from what it was in 2017, we need to wait patiently for few months also the bakkt launch might change the value of BTC. however at this moment we can judge that bull run is impossible.

The meaning of bitcoin and what it exactly offers to people have changed a lot in the first decade of bitcoin. Since fundamentals also have been changed, we can say that most of them do not say the same thing. If bitcoin gain more power on traditional markets, fundamentals may have more power, create their own agenda, and make original ideas of bitcoin be discussed on the internet. Reaching this level may take one more decade but there are many people who don't forget the idea of barrierless electronic cash.

the notion of custodial exchanges isn't new at all. mt gox was used as a massive online wallet back in 2010-2014. exchanges were exit scamming left and right back in those days. you also know damn well that LN and sidechain contracts do not involve 3rd party custody. ::)


remind me, when were cheap/free transactions ever part of the design?

hal finney cogently pointed out the scaling shortcomings very early on, though we now know he could have been more imaginative than "bitcoin banks":



was "money". still "money".

even if every address input and output was segwit. it would still be around 2mb
(what devs are not saying loudly, is they want/need the other ~2mb spare average so that they can fit in future bloat features into the weight.. such as confidential payment codes)
but forget weight what really actually matters is transactions per day

what really needs to be pushed is transactions per day ON the bitcoin network.
Visa statistics has people only doing 42~ tx a month = 1.5~ a day.

things like LN are for the NICHE of spammers that want to do more then that. but for average joe who only spend infrequently LN is more hassle than help.
having a ~600k a day implied limit thats been around since a 9 years ago. and no real innovation to allow that limit to expand in 9 years.. has been the big debate for many years.

these 'tweaks' and new tx formats have pushed up the bloat per TX (leading to less lean transactions)
these 'tweaks' and new tx formats have just been a plan to push people off network
all with the false/myths that bitcoin and blockchain will fail to deliver

as for the link indicating segwit is at 50%. its not
some of those spent UTXO's classed as segwit are actually legacy

"A transaction that spends one or more SegWit outputs is considered a SegWit-transaction"
meaning
"A transaction that spends one or more legacy outputs is considered a legacy-transaction" too
yet thats not how the stats rightfully show

its not showing how many segwit outputs. its showing how many transactions that they biasedly describe as a segwit simply because 1 spent UTXO is segwit

....
lets put it into prospective
Bech32: https://p2sh.info/dashboard/db/bech32-statistics?panelId=3&fullscreen&orgId=1  (130k)
P2Wsh: https://p2sh.info/dashboard/db/p2wsh-statistics?panelId=3&fullscreen&orgId=1 (32k)
P2wpk: https://p2sh.info/dashboard/db/p2wpkh-statistics?panelId=3&fullscreen&orgId=1 (100k)

p2sh: https://p2sh.info/dashboard/db/p2sh-statistics?panelId=3&fullscreen&orgId=1 (6.1M)
p2pkh: https://p2sh.info/dashboard/db/pay-to-pubkey-hash-statistics?panelId=3&fullscreen&orgId=1 (42M)

as you can see not many actual addresses are actually segwit based compared to legacy

and going by the all time average of 52m UTXO.. its not even 1% adoption let alone 50%

no wonder the 'fundementals' are becoming weaker
people are over promising and over promoting

1. proof of key - be your own bank....   LN = not your own bank but need to ask someone else to be online and permit the transaction.. LEARN CO-SIGNED addresses .. they are called multisig for a reason
thats not sole party....
then get out of 2016, learn LN 2018. learn factories and then realise that 2nd party has flaws. and so now they are doing 3rd party(factory)
atleast keep yourself uptodate

2. using the "every transactions of the world" argument.
i laugh
im a huge bitcoiner and i havnt needed to touch my FIAT ATM card much since 2012. most my bills are paid using btc direct.
but guess what i dont need to make every product/item i buy appear as a bitcoin transaction even when paying btc

i do laugh at the excuse to push people off the bitcoin network and lock up their funds as the "cant buy coffee"
funnily i can buy coffee and without using my FIAT visa card, by spending my btc without LN and without spamming the network with every spoon of sugar and every drop of milk

and to add to that bitcoin will not be a "one world currency for everyone"
which is th other lame excuse to push people off bitcoin by saying that bitcoin wont work for 7 billion peoples every tin of baked beans so lets not make it work for rational spending of less people

so pull your excuses that bitcoin cant work out ur ass and actually start thinking it doesnt need to perform a transaction per tin of baked beans. instead people just pay for a week of groceries as 1tx
EG if you put 50 items into a grocery shopping cart. and go to the grocery cashier desk...
you dont then make 50 hand-over payments of dimes/pennies per item
you dont then have 50 items on your Visa card statement.

instead you make 1 handover of banknotes
it just shows as a single payment on your visa statement

if i want starbucks i dont need to:
preplan spending habits of 2weeks-2months
lock funds up for 2weeks-2 months with a co-signing partner
hope the co-signing partner is online when i am at starbucks
hope the co-signing partner has funds in his other channel to route on
hope the co-signing partners.. partner is online
hope the co-signing partners.. partner has funds to route on
split funds into multiple channels if a co-signer/routes multiple co-signers cause issues

no wonder the 'fundementals' are becoming weaker
people are over promising and over promoting OTHER NETWORKS as the solution. while trying to say bitcoin cant do x/y/x by over exaggerating rational use

The thing is that I have been expecting this kind of situation for the whole cryptocurrency market. We have to admit it that things are getting boring with this space for the past many months and the change of year is not doing anything to reverse this trend. We are expecting and hoping for some catalysts or development that can be helping the marketplace get exciting again and so far nothing is showing on the horizon. We are just hoping that 2019 can be slightly different than 2018 otherwise the short-term prospects of the market may not be that so glowing.

Lot's of people taking advantage what price of bitcoin right now so its fundamental if you see that we have a strong investors that still buying bitcoin until now.

Now they are clearly becoming weaker, the market is distressing for its performance. And this is influenced by many factors, ranging from human to technical and the influence of the country and the rulers.

I think the weakening of prices cannot be interpreted that bitcoin is getting weaker, I think the strength of bitcoin is seen from their
development and existing adoption? adoption and development may continue to advance, but prices can fall at any time right?

No one can come to a conclusion that bitcoin fundamentals are getting weaker by looking at its current low price and that is the main topic most talk to convince others that it is on its path to die but the truth is it is getting stronger when considering the adoption rate so even its price is lower when considering its past bitcoin has able to spread across the world financial systems which is a positive fact to understand that it is progressing

I do not think Bitcoin's strength should be evaluated by its price. Because the price is necessary for people to trade and we cannot say that it can be useful for development. But in my respects, Bitcoin has been evolving in its expansion and adoption, and this is proof that it has been getting stronger as time goes by.

That's to be expected. Many came to the market after its rapid growth. Accordingly, now many of these people are beginning to leave. Well, it is also very difficult to attract new people by such market conditions. But it seems to me that crypto has ceased to react to the news. So that doesn't mean it's bad.

I do agree with that. Bitcoin adoption is getting stronger everyday even we are still in the bearish market. With the introduction of so many blockchain projects, no wonder many people are starting to realize the benefits of integrating the blockchain in every business.

I don't believe last year there is high impact fundamental news that was positive enough to push the price upward as we aware of two likely fundamentals this bakkt and SEC ETF are the only two that can make meaningful impact this year if approved else the bearish runs continues to lingers on.

The fundamentals at this time tend to weaken many people, the loss of interest in selling and buying in all existing markets, does not mean that all large markets do not have a prolonged aspect in the future, of course all of this is the game of all global elite elites who have more knowledge about aspects bitcoin itself, actually this will be their initial capital to supply as much bitcoin as possible, because they know better and understand the problem of price trends in all markets ...