Bitcoin Forum

This is Tone Vays. The person who predicted that bitcoin's all time high will be about $7000 on 2017. I reckon it was where he liquidated his long positions hehehe.

In any case, will he be wrong again on predicting the bottom? Arthur Hayes of Bitmex predicted his bottom on $2500.

https://steemitimages.com/p/ADdPNihJzmPaYeXWBoWXr7bhX6wm624AmQu4VkoYsPfrSuVDR3RGC3D498cdT6fLt5j3qJqgTPWL54xK65WZV2gbG?format=match&mode=fit&width=640

In a recent episode of On The Record, Vays spoke with Murad Mahmudov on all things crypto, revealing that he’s 85% certain that Bitcoin has not yet made a true bottom.

In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000. Based on the discussion, it seems that Vays agrees many altcoins are still far too expensive for the bear market to be over. This includes names like Ethereum (ETH), EOS, Cardano (ADA), XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

On the other end of the spectrum, Vays predicts that the crypto market will not see all-time highs again, including Bitcoin to $20K, likely until 2020. That means that he sees the next two years as a choppy trading environment.

Read in full https://sludgefeed.com/tone-vayes-sets-1800-for-bitcoin-bottom/

then what's the significance of posting it here :D

it sounds to me like someone who is dying to fill some shorts and will be satisfied if there were a big drop which gave him the profit he seeks from those shorts.

in any case it seems like it is one of those times when again everyone becomes a prophet and starts predicting bitcoin price and most of them are ridiculous like this one here.

Tone vays. Along with most visible members of the bitcoin community is a repugnant moronic individual with bad dress sense

I wouldn't take anything he takes too seriously. He is not an active trader.

From what I remember, he recorded himself taking a 1 BTC 5x short on BTC sometime in the summer and it was the only trade he took the entire year. Obviously he got lucky with that prediction.

However him saying BTC will go to $1K is like that Tom Lee guy saying it should of hit $15K at the end of 2018.

They are all guesses and nothin accurate. However some guesses do turn out to be correct from time to time.

I kinda agree with his prediction (despite the fact that he is a "bear" and he is dying to see a lower bitcoin price).The true bottom will be around 2-3K USD and any new ATH will happen after the next 2020 halving.
It takes a lot of time to build some new hype around bitcoin.The market is insecure and the fear dominates over the greed.

I watch this guy a few times and I wouldnt say to dismiss him but everyone is limited in their sight and prediction.     Alot of people were calling a trend change summer to autumn, it could have also been a break upwards but it wasnt till the news arrived with what appeared to more negative fork news somehow being related to BTC that market perhaps took that road.

Its easily possible Vays could be correct on some time line but calling out absolute prices and dates is kinda doomed from the start.    Also he doesnt reference the dollar enough, thats a giant source of liquidity and influence on pricing for all sorts of commodities and BTC especially seems to react to a weaker dollar.
Iam looking on the chart for dollar to place a lower high pricing then it did in 2017, if it can do that then we see a far easier landscape for BTC, crypto and many prices.   How long this takes, could be the whole of 2019

Does his Mom cut his hair with a knife & fork?

Seriously who cares what this douche predicts. These guys are wrong with their price predictions all the tike. Throw enough shit at a wall & eventually some of it will stick.

Sure, when you look at a BTC chart and the last year or so, to say a bottom is in is way premature. Tone is clearly a Bitcoin maximalist, but that said, he sure isn't a perma-bull. His 9 count candle method (which I don't yet grasp - haven't studied it) appears fairly accurate. Anyway, I myself can see BTC coming back to 2500 USD but lots of factors are in play.(e.g. Venezuela - real world problems guys!).

I would NOT just be sitting in cash in these times. Having been through these "Bitcoin bubbles" before, you know when the true despair sets in and I'm not really sure we've hit that. Regardless, unless you are just going to hoddle, don't put all your eggs in one basket time wise (i.e. calling an end to a bear, bottom, etc.) Bitcoin moves really quick going up, don't get lost waiting for a bottom.

I "listen" to a lot of opinions on Bitcoin, don't  hold any of them, but take them into account along with what my TA/mind see's. Alessio is nice to watch btw on Youtube...

He thinks anything that's not BTC is a scam and this is colouring his judgement. Most of the time he is of course right but it doesn't matter what he feels. Enough other people do not agree with him. I too am amazed what shit out there still has a pulse. No one cares what I think either.

He could well be right about his Bitcoin price call. So far this feels very similar to the 6-6500 range, like it's hanging around waiting to hang itself.

 

ltc is up 50% in the last month. btc will soon follow.

85-40-10=35%  So he believes by 35% chance that bottom will be between $2000 and $3200.

As a trader or as an investor, you have ti draw your prognosis on the future of the market inorder to profit from it. It's simply a prediction or speculation of where the market is heading rather than where you want it to be.

There is no guarantee that you would be right, but that's the risk involved.
You can listen to analysis of people like Tone Vays, and other more enthusiastis investors and use the information to draw your own analysis.

He has an explanation for this.

He basically trades 2 or 3 times a year. He never does a trade before he is  %99 sure about the situation he is in. Being an active trader isn't always a good thing. Trading too many times is like playing dice every day. You'll lose everything in the end. If you do 10 trades every day, can you say you are sure of every trade you do? Nope. You'll fuck it up eventually.

I don't agree with everything he says but I can see his reasoning and his reasoning is mostly right which usually makes him right in the end.

One other thing:

If he is also right about the 2020 prediction, then waiting for the absolute bottom doesn't make the most sense. If you knew btc will hit 20k in 2020 or 2021, what difference would it make to buy it from 3.5k or 2k? Not much. As long as you are DCA'ing you are on the safe side.

For everyone's information, he is not a bear. He is one of the most maximalist of all the bitcoin maximalists in the cryptospace. For him, any cryptocoin that is not a bitcoin is a scam hehehe. He trades both directions of the market, however.

Put your money in the bin and set it on fire. Save some time.

Let's just stop listening to this people, even if they are popular in crypto.
People who invested or trade with crypto have different opinion and prediction, and they might also be wrong because they are not God.
Back in the days, who would have predicted bitcoin to become this big, most does not even see it come, so let's just be calm and stick to what we believe.

I don't think this is much of a news. If you look at just couple things about Tony Vays you can understand why he doesn't deserve the spotlight given to him. First of all even OP starts out with Tony's big prediction of 7 thousand dollar max and he was dead wrong on that, almost 3 times higher was seen in bitcoin.

Lets move on to his CV, dude was a geology major, he finished college with a geophysical engineering degree, nothing about bitcoin there, nothing technological like software engineer who built blockchain. He moved to financial engineering, which is the wall streets of our world but graduated from "Florida state" university, which might as well be an online degree you get for free.

Somehow got jobs at amazing places like bear stearns and jp morgan which I assume was for couple pennies a month since it would be highly unlikely someone like him to get in places like that. The only thing he did in crypto world was being a "writer" for cointelegraph, which in itself is nothing, we all can do it. Hence he is sooooo ineligible to make any statements about bitcoin that my grandma and tony vays have same credibility when it comes to bitcoin and my grandma doesn't know what bitcoin is.

hit bottom or not TONE VAYS is one of the biggest idiots in the space ........... good he made that one trade few weeks back

sweet haircut, tone!


the "tone vays indicator" has historically worked very well, at least during bull markets. if he calls it a scam, it's about to make another leg up! :D

i'm not saying he's wrong in all his opinions on altcoins, but he's a great contrarian indicator. same with his calls on bitcoin---he's always too conservative. he just doesn't know how to account for speculative hype. he always aims too low and he thinks the market is smarter than it is.

what does "altcoins are still too expensive" even mean? what price or market cap could you expect that isn't totally arbitrary.... a wild guess?

85% certain, 40% chance, 10% chance, what's next? How do they get all these percentages, straight out of their ass, I guess? I understand when someone says that he is like 90% sure that something is gonna happen (or not happen). This is not to be taken literally as it is just a figure of speech to show how certain one can be about something. But 85 and 40 percent? Give me a break

Though I agree that shit like Bitcoin Cash (whatever denomination) is far too expensive

Tone Vays is a funny dude. He claims that bull marker wont start untill ETH goes to 0.

The hate in the thread is flowing for Tone Vays hehehe. Does that imply that bitcoin might not have hit its true bottom? Similar to what occured when the doubters denied 2017's bull market, the market was doing the opposite.

Tone is an idiot. I do agree with some of his points (mainly when it comes to decentralization), but reject the rest of it, even how he thinks about certain altcoins. He's expecting them to die off, but yet doesn't have the balls to short them. It's pure mouth, little action, and he rides the flow of the market hard.

The thing that annoys me is his arrogance, and then mainly regarding how he blatantly assumes that things will happen just because he thinks so.

I tried watching some of his recent videos, and he's still doing a lot of;

Aaaah, yeah, but aaaahh.
Bitcoin will see lower lowes because aaahh, yeah, and aaaah.
I think that altcoins will aaah, in the long aaah, term lose their value aaaaah.

Wtf? Is he ok? :D

him being a big idiot who is spamming "the internet" doesn't change anything about bitcoin price or what he is predicting. even a broken clock can be correct twice a day.
besides you first have to prove that this is not the "true bottom" first and then talk about whether it is going to go any lower or not.

Tone Vays is blinded by his own ignorance and hatred towards allts. Worst part is, that he is using cognitive dissonance to preserve his face. He must find reasons and flaws in each altcoin so he could bash them. He doesnt see the picture clear. Why should all altcoins die? Each altcoin has a community of hodlers and users, and as long as these people will hold and use the coin - it will not die. To say only BTC will survive and every other altcoin will go to 0 is simmilar to the religion.
Bitcoin maximalism vs  altcoins is equivalent of religious wars. I like to watch his price analysis, but cant stand this - 'if its not btc - its garbage and should go to 0' !

I say BTC DIDN'T hit its true ATH  ;D  ;D

I'm not very familiar with his views on altcoins and honestly I don't feel very inclined to get acquainted with them more tightly, but if he is one of a few orthodox Bitcoin cultists and maximalists who can't stand any altcoin, I can't possibly agree with him and his attitude. Simply put, I also think that most altcoins are shitcoins which should die as a result of free competition and unbiased market selection, but it would be bordering on extreme if not outright insane to claim that all of them should bite the dust

If so, what is to be a testing ground for innovations like Lightning Network, Schnorr signatures, sidechains, etc?

You perfectly describe how delusional some of the Bitcoin maximalists are. I respect anyone's perspective on this market, but back it up with facts, and Tone just can't. It's all basic level gibberish no one can do anything with.

Does he really trade that much? I see him talk a lot in his videos, draw lines on charts, but we haven't seen any proof of him opening or closing positions. He might not even be trading at all, just scoop up in-stream donations.

He once said that his affiliate links, referrals and in-stream donations account for a very large part of his income, the rest is likely from readings and presentations. Trading is on the very bottom.

For him, only BTC developers are clever and geniuses, while developers of the altcoins are ordinary people and borderline scammers. He says, that all inovation altcoins do, will be added on btc and alts simply become absolete. He says, BTC doesnt have to be a p2p cash, its main function is store of value, and people should just use credit cards and pay credit cards with BTC. People should not use BTC as a P2P payment system. For Tone, with each passing day, his blinding hatred towards alts coin grow stronger as each day proves him wrong.

The whole point is, that people still will use BTC as a store of value, yet some altcoin will have place too. I agree with you that majority doesnt have place, especially utility tokens,  however, if part of people will continue to use them - they will not die and will not go to zero. Look at ETC - completelly useless coin, had a 51% attack and is valued at 545 million dollars.

How can you force people to choose 1 coin? For example DASH, has plenty of haters, but also has a community, has a lot of hodlers, has a lot of merchants accepting it. How can this coin die, if a large number of people prefer to transact in this coin? People will still hold BTC, but choose to transact in other coins, so how can these coins die? Tones anwer is - that the features that are adopted by the altcoins, the popular features will be added to BTC, hence making these altcoin absolete. This statement would be true, if BTC development would be fast. However, BTC development is extremelly slow and people cant ever get consensus. Most features will never be added, and if they would be decided to get added it would take years for BTC protocol to get upgraded, while altcoin scene moves much faster.

Tone says he doesnt trade anymore. His main income source was the Bitmex referals, which were shut down, after he posted making a trade there. The trade was correct direction, just because he posted online with his set up and stop loss, he got liquidated. And his account got closed, because he is an american.

On the contrary, crypto needs BTC maximalists, they stand a ground againts people like Roger and Craig who scam people into puting their money some shitcoin, instead of making them keep majority of their funds in BTC and only minority in altcoins. Without these hardocre, hatred filled, bitcoin maximalists, a lot of new coming people would just get burned. So in the end of the day, bitcoin maximalists are usefull. They can stay maximalists if they hate altcoins, so we should not pay much attention to their opinion. However, they still play a vital role in crypto ecosystem. :D

I remember myself, trying to find the good BTC wallet, reading all material about BTC. It was a bit difficult as at that time there was not many sources of information. Nowadays, its even harder, as there is too many. Person goes to bitcoin.com and here gets lied and confused straight up. So these BTC maximalists, they in fact are usefull and needed.

Oh com'on, look who's talking


Well, somehow I thought he would come up with something better than that

And it is not only that Bitcoin's development is slow as you correctly noted and as it should necessarily be given the role it plays as a store of value (which this Toney dude himself seems to admit), it is also maximalist's view that there is a state of perfection which can be achieved and nothing to achieve thereafter. Bitcoin still is and will likely always remain a work in progress, so there is not a single reason to think or believe that once Bitcoin adopts some feature from an altcoin, it will be like the end of the world for altcoins (and for Bitcoin too, for that matter)

Bottom line is you never know what prediction is right until the market says it is. The article obviously started on how Tone Vays is unreliable in terms of prediction which means that we should disregard the rest of his statements after that. Also we have seen hundreds of this people shine during 2017 as they have somehow predicted a bull year for Bitcoin but we are seeing most of them are wrong during the last year and maybe this year as well. My opinion is let us not based our buy and sell decisions with their predictions as out own observations can help us more.

it looks like the price of bitcoin has touched the base before the new year yesterday and now it's time for bitcoin to rise again. if you look at the market, you certainly see the price of bitcoin that has started to rise.

These guys who try to predict the price are people who want to have fame the costs of bitcoin, they always wrong in their predictions


like I said they always wrong in their predictions, but this time they can hit their predictions. The price is in the  $4000 and I do not see many good news as big players entering the market still this month, all the good news that I read speak of the future something like the next months, that means that in this quarter there is nothing that impedes the price fall below  $3000

I reckon no with that haircut hehehe.

In any case, he made 1 correct prediction and made money on it previously. Let us hope he only got lucky and that it will not make him right again on the next. It would hurt to see another dump again.

how are you so sure that he didn't make profit from the rest of his predictions minus that 1 correct one? in other words how do you know that he is not doing the exact opposite of what he is publicly saying :D
encouraging others to sell while you buy cheaper coins, encouraging others to buy when you want to sell at the peak,... that sort of thing.

There is every possibility that prices are going down lower from this point. Short term sentiment simply is unpredictable and a lot of the times, very irrational. However, I disagree with his predictions.


I think that bitcoin crashing under $1k is next to impossible, and that $2-3k as a bottom, even though is possible, will be extremely unlikely given the fact that there are tons of institutional investors that would be willing to buy up the cheap coins at that price point.

Also, I really don't get how he just puts out completely random and arbitrary numbers in terms of the probabilities of which prices go below a certain point, without backing it up with any form of legitimate analysis. That in my opinion is a sign that his opinion shouldn't be blindly trusted in, although that should be the case with any self proclaimed expert on speculation.

it sounds to me like someone who is dying to fill some shorts and will be satisfied if there were a big drop which gave him the profit he seeks from those shorts.

in any case it seems like it is one of those times when again everyone becomes a prophet and starts predicting bitcoin price and most of them are ridiculous like this one here.
[/quote]

Works for me. I probably had 0.01 BTC below $1k, only truly started earning well when it had long crossed over 4-digit territory and then onwards and upwards. Would love to get entire bitcoins for a month's work.

He'll short, I'll buy up those cheap coins.

Hoping more Tone Vays come around. The market's still too positive for a change of scene. We need them bears to come mauling, the kwukducks to come a calling, and the panic to start setting in. The more ridiculous the better!

Yeah, this is a telltale sign of bullshit

Why does he do that when any sane person would know better? As I see it, mostly because the audience he appeals to is not so particular and meticulous about presenting proofs in the name of "any form of legitimate analysis". Basically, such people get carried away with all these percentages blindly believing that if someone uses numbers like 43.53 percent, it is something trustworthy by definition. Guileless and naive folks think there is real analysis behind the figures while in reality it is only a simple trick which con artists often use to deceive people

Lol! I would love to hear more of his predictions so we can do the opposite.

I guess he lost all those hairs after he failed his previous predictions? He should wear a cap imo.

Good for him! I wonder why anyone is paying attention to someone who called the peak at $7000 in 2017 anyway. This is a market and no one have a guarantee what the market will hold in the short term or long term. Anyone who wants to buy should buy and leave out this prediction game. There is a lot to look out for, when it comes to the market stamping a lower low in the long run, but whichever way, whether it has hit the bottom or not, it is still a good time to start buying. Probably, he is just busy stating his wish to be able to get in at a good price. Everywhere is a good price as long as you are comfortable with the price you are buying. At this point and lower, I am so comfortable, and if Tone Vays like, he should keep looking for his bottom.

Lol. Honestly, no one cares! Bunch of guys like this just trying to gain recognition for their stupidity and as far as I am concerned, the only thing guys like this are good for is baseless predictions and trying to tell you I told you so in the long run. I only blame those who act on what they say. No one can predict whatever happens to the market, anything any one says is just baseless speculation. Whether the market has reached bottom or not, only time and trend can give that answer, and the last time I checked, Tone Vays is not time and trend.

Hehehe that is a good question. He might not be as stupid as he makes himself appear with that haircut. That is also another reason why we should not listen to these socalled wise men.

Tone not giving a dam is one more reason to pay attention, you dont want to take any direction from someone preoccupied with what others think especially.    His hair is whatever, if he spent any time on twitter at all concerned on his latest look for a conference he'd be worth half as less in anything he had to say.   Pretty ironic but he probably has the correct personality to have half a chance of being correct vs market moves which tend to be like sheep flocks.

The man dont give a dam is a familiar attitude I see in market observers, I dont think he is oblivious to market mood but is aware popularity is a minor factor.     I imagine for market bottom he is looking for unpopularity and a sharp spike not a careful descent

The only certainty is that his hairstyle won't attract women  ;D

That is actually really good strategy. I remember Warren Buffet saying he made his wealth out of 10 trades. So even if he would not do any other trade he would still be almost as rich as he is now.   Other thing is in my country if you are normal guy trading that is not taxed. If you are heavy trader it act as a business and you need to pay taxes like on any business. That just give me more confidence to not trade :P  Beside that that with trading I usually just decreased my stack :P

I honestly am sick of these speculators that are regularly active on mainstream media, and putting out speculative predictions that are almost never backed by evidence.

Even if he is right about the bottom, it wouldn't lead me to believe that he's actually got a working system of predicting price movements whatsoever.

I think that the bottom is really somewhere around $3k. Prices could potentially go below that level for a very brief period of time, but not to 3 figures which he implies to be a probability.

But comparing current market conditions to the bear market that ended in 2016 would suggest that prices are indeed close to bottoming out, if not already at the price floor. That would mean that it's probably a good idea at this stage to start accumulating, if you are indeed interested in the long term prospects of bitcoin. Prices ain't gonna get much lower than this imho, and it's much better to dollar cost average rather than trying to put an exact number on the absolute bottom.

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits. Since Bitmain is behind it, and they hold a lot of coins, we can expect three-digits this year.

It's not BCHABCwhatever that made that threat, it was the BCHSVCSWhatevacoin crew that did.

And as Bitmain has now ably proven no one actor can bend any aspect of BTC to their will. It's too big for that now.

some people seem to resist any change in the statements they may on public, maybe they think if they change it people no longer listen to them but they forget that people already don't listen to them because they have overdone it already!
it is like the opposite of Tom Lee with his ATH predictions all through last year. this is as foolish as that one. they are all advertising themselves and gaining fake popularity and earning money from it while people keep discussing their nonsense.

Bitmain will not dump its BTC other than what they have to sell to cover operational cost. The rest is capital they need to strengthen their portfolio, and don't forget that they need BTC to artificially keep Bcash at a certain price level.

People blindly assume that CSW owns a lot of coins, yet don't have any actual evidence to back it up. In other words, they believe what this con artist said is true, which is exactly what he wants.

He thrives on chaos and idiots on the internet believing everything he tweets. He must have had an amazing time with news outlets continuously donating him valuable promotion, and that for weeks straight. Smh....

Why would you take their word for it? What makes you think they have that many coins?

It's not like Wright is Satoshi. He's offered no proof of that, and none of the earliest mined coins have been moving on the blockchain. He just seems like a delusional megalomaniac, not someone who can control the Bitcoin market.

Hahaha! Good luck! When did the Bitcoin Cash camp say it? Before or after Bitmain's slow disentigration? 8)

Believe it or not, it's turning out that Jihan Wu and Roger Ver are taking them on a road to nowhere.

And that would be a good thing in the long run

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but it was Craig Wright who promised to crash Bitcoin into three digits. Whether he can now be considered part of the Bitcoin Cash camp is another question. He also promised to bring down Bitcoin ABC, and that can be loosely construed as an official declaration and beginning of the hash wars. It is not clear whether he actually wanted to compromise the competing chain and in fact intended to do something in that direction as it remains mostly unknown to the wider public but the ABC camp had to take protective measures anyway

Craig Wright doesn't have the funds to kill BCash (the BCH-ABC camp) and im assuming he is also supported by billionaire Calvin Ayre's wealth, so they are obviously talking nonsense. The amount of liquidity you need to dump BTC to these prices is simply too much and they would be stupid to attempt it.

I think Tone is right and we are still not bottomed but we are near capitulation. The sub $1000 prices will be the obligatory group of people that are too pessimistic and are always around on every bear market and they get it wrong.

Capitulation doesn't have to play out in the way people think it has to play out. The more convinced most people are for something to happen, the more convinced I am that it will not happen. It doesn't mean we won't be seeing lower lows, but the probability for a counter move becomes more likely. We saw that before we broke $6000 as well. Only a few expected $6000 to break, while the majority was speculating about higher prices, and lower we went.

The great thing about bear markets is that people have no choice but to become a hodler, and by the time they notice that the price starts to climb back up again, they are more inclined to keep hodling because there is no point in selling.

You can always put your money where your mouth is


I don't agree with you on this point. There is in fact plenty of choice. You can sell and get out instead of possibly multiplying your losses down the road. Then you can sell twice as much and become a short-seller turning over from bulls to bears, from holders to speculators. On the other hand, you might have been a seasoned bear from long ago when prices were still over 10k. So your claim is only true with respect to a certain percentage of market participants and how big it is cannot be known. But it is certainly not about having no choice at all

And I don't see what's great in that. Care to explain?

Which is exactly what I did.

It's the mass (i.e. dumb money) I am referring to, so you can be sure that they account for the majority of the participants in this market. The people with a choice you referred to have very likely already taken the necessary actions to prevent being sucked into this bear market in the worst possible way.

What choice do average joes have at this point? They don't know how to react, have not witnessed a bear market yet, etc. What do you expect from them? Sell and risk buying back less coins for the same amount at higher levels?

The experience. It might not be something they see as great initially, but during the next wave they will value it massively, which worked out well for me as well.

Okay, let's hope it pans out as expected


This point is debatable

It feels like there is no more dumb money left in the market (i.e. no more such money coming in). Well, indeed there is always some, but not what you can safely call "mass". So it is not like these participants make up the majority, or just an important part, of the market actors at this time. If anything, they are irrelevant as this market (the one for the last couple of months at least) doesn't look very promising as trading volumes declined significantly (on a day-by-day basis). And with the majority of market participants consisting of "people with a choice", we are kind of stuck in a limbo (which looks more like a trading hell, honestly)

It doesn't need to happen, but it probably will. Mt Gox had historically high weekly volume at the November 2011 bottom. The same goes for Bitfinex/Bitstamp at the January 2015 bottom. I've always loved Bitcoin for its V-bottoms.

I don't think everyone is waiting for capitulation, judging by the way Bitfinex shorts have dropped in half over the past month. I'm still hoping for another leg up to test the 20-week MA and horizontal resistance in the $5,000s but it's chop city right now. This can go either way, but I'm not loving the look of trader commitments right now.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results". It might, but maybe with some differences. It's maybe the reason why many technical day traders lose their money. Haha.


Didn't capitulation already happen?

i would say "no" for two reasons.

1. capitulation is usually characterized by very high volume at the bottom. it's the final flush of weak hands. we didn't see particularly high volume in december (compared to early 2018), and the bulk of the volume didn't occur at the bottom.

2. the lack of recovery. this is what i'm looking for after a real capitulation:

https://i.imgur.com/v1uf1ds.png
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp

So you basically think it didn't happen because there was no major reversal?

I was closely following Bitcoin prices at Bitfinex when the last crash happened and prices went vertically down from +5k to almost 3k. The volumes were huge in the 3k-4k range like 500M daily. Compare this to measly 40M on average we see today (38M at the moment). So what we saw in early December looked exactly like "the final flush of weak hands" whatever was left of them after a year of a downhill journey. In other words, you can't compare the December volumes with the early 2018 numbers, and we in fact saw the reversal but you just need to zoom in (read, forget about 6k, 7k, 10k, and so on for the time being)

low volume + lack of reversal candles. from the link above, emphasis mine:



on the day the bottom was made, bitfinex did 16.36k BTC volume (according to wisdom) or 17.89k BTC volume (according to tradingview). that's closer to $50-60M.

again, volumes were paltry compared to the february 2018 bottom---and that's in BTC terms. when you account for USD equivalent volume (due to the drop from $6k to $3k), the december volume looks tiny.

by no possible metric was it a high volume reversal.


your conclusion doesn't follow from the premise.

i'm comparing volume to past capitulation bottoms. you're comparing it to low volume lulls. why?

Because that's the crux of the matter!

It doesn't look like perfectly justified to compare this "reversal" to past reversals. How come? Because "past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" (or some variation thereof). Basically, you are judging things in retrospect, i.e. you look at past reversals which were in thousands of dollars (and sometimes in many thousands), and this reversal doesn't look like a reversal at all to you. Truth be told, it doesn't look like a reversal even to my own eyes, so I'm kinda with you on this

Now try to gauge the price dynamics taking into account the possibility that we may be stuck in this range (say, 3k-4k) for years to come. In fact, that would be a pretty volatile range for the total majority of commodities, most blue chips as well as government bonds (e.g. treasuries). So how are you going to look at this rebound other than a major reversal? In other words, things should be assessed from a correct perspective. The one based on past performance is definitely not the right one in this market

You can look at the charts and use either the past low volumes or you can use the past bottoms and no matter what you use in the end none of it will matter in bitcoin since it will only react to big things and not the charts. You think bitcoin dropped from 20 thousand to 4 thousand dollars because of some chart indicator showing it should ?

Look at all the people 2 months ago that said bitcoin was bound to go up from 6.5 thousand dollars, every chart I saw here was telling me how it should be going up really soon. Then what happened ? Bitcoin cash war happened and the price is now at 4 thousand even lower prices. Hence, it can go up or it go lower but in the end whatever happens it will happen not because charts but because something big happened, either going down because some bad news or going up because some good news but in the end it will move according to them.

Personally, I don't think that the crash was due to Bitcoin Cash hash wars

Though it might in fact have been the trigger. Anyway, if it were the real cause, we would have already been back to prewar levels as both chains are now completely irrelevant (good riddance to both of them). And as we didn't return to those levels and far from that, we can safely conclude that the Bitcoin Cash showdown impact on prices was negligible on its own (unless its perpetrators were dumping bitcoins, of course). Basically, we just continued to spiral down after a stop at 6.5k. We most likely would have crashed even without the Bitcoin Cash controversy springing up

I believe that it's becoming like a game between the market participants trying to out-smart the market. Many of the people who got in Bitcoin from 2014 to 2018 have already become wiser traders. They might have anticipated that the majority might have also become wiser traders too.

Then the wisest of the wiser traders might have also thought that, because everyone is just waiting for the "capitulation", they might as well be first in line now, and start buying. No need to wait! Haha. 8)

I had been raising a similar question a few years ago. My point was that in due course weak hands eventually get shaken out, and this inevitably leads to a stronger competition between the remaining market participants, the smarter ones. In this manner, it is not so much about becoming smarter or wiser (as most people are simply not capable of this feat) as about "natural selection" when only the smartest remain in this market at the end of the day

And it looks like we are pretty close to that "singularity event"

Or the "weak hands" might have also become wiser, and will not be easily shaken out anymore. Which makes for a stronger debate that the "wisest of the wiser traders" who anticipated it, would want to stay ahead, and would not wait for a "capitulation".

Personally, I don't think things are all that simple

From my perspective, it is a wrong approach as such, or wrong frame of reference if you please, to think in terms of "capitulation". As I wrote in one of my previous posts, if this market is to stay with us for long, say, like 2-3 years (or even if for just a few months), the terms like capitulation, bottom, major reversal are all going to lose any useful meaning. Basically, it is going to turn into nonstop bloodbath, with no regular bears or bulls but only with dogs in the pit

Apart from that, I don't say that a few weak hands couldn't and didn't in fact turn into strong ones over time as some certainly did. I'm talking about a bigger picture, obviously, where many common people lost their money and left for good. But I agree either it is the departure of weak hands or weak hands turning into strong ones, the competition became stronger while the market as a whole more ruthless and less forgiving (let's call it more "professional")

Capitulation could have already happened when we dropped from $6k after hoovering for a while in there all the way down to $3k. Solid big red candle, good volume, and it happened after a while of being stable.

Bottoms happen when it's too late to realize that they happened, this is how the new FOMO cycles are created. There's people always waiting for lower prices that never come, then they realize they will never come, and all of them becoming panic buyers or accumulators at market prices.

exactly what i always say.
and in addition to that, we always have the manipulators hard at work in the market at times when big drops are happening. if you watch the market during the recoveries when the chart is trying to form the same thing as the picture that was posted above, you can see how they are "suppressing" the recovery but making large dumps easily noticeable by big sells instead of being multiple small sells by multiple traders.

Bottoms definitely happen but not like that

They are not like a flat bottom at all (as the word suggests) since they are more like the Mariana Trench with a long, lonely red stick piecing support for a few minutes, maybe hours (this is how capitulation looks). If we see a bottom like this (and like the one we saw in September and October), it may prove to be a false bottom. Anyway, if your estimations were correct, we wouldn't be stuck in the current range of 3-4k for so many days. As much as I hope to be wrong, I have a feeling that these prices are to stay for longer than we expect

The trader I've followed for ten years says, you will be forced out or you will be worn out.      Its a quick way of referencing margin calls but also time limits to peoples involvement.   When people talk about capitulation they are ignoring the idea also of a market correction over time also.    This is the boring and slow form of capitulation where people lose the thread of that market because they lose interest and drop out, that doesnt even make them sellers exactly but usually means they are not using BTC as a product

We are most likely to have a corrective market over time, probably years I guess.   This could be the bottom but over time theory would say we really dont rise much for over 12 months from now so we just go sideways and in this way we outlast the negative trend by just staying in a holding pattern.

This is my view of what happened on the previous big rise which was 2013 into start 2014, it went down but mostly it just drifted for a long time.    It wore out the bears as well as alot of speculators, going quiet I hope is still something BTC can do like a nuclear submarine just keep on going anyway :)

Yes, I was talking about how after a big red dildo like the one we say from $6k to $3k, it comes a very ong period of a stable-ish (in Bitcoin terms) price. We've already had the %85-ish correction we needed, anything lower than that is just pretty dumb and I may consider buying as it starts getting into the unreasonably cheap ranges.

Then given by past precedents, I don't expect ATH until around 2021. Of course new fundamentals like Bakkt can make it go to the moon if massive institutional pockets start buying.

Honestly, I think we're looking for both. If you look back to 2015, we saw market capitulation in January: mass panic selling, nearly 50% decline over a few days, nearly record volumes, and a very swift recovery after the final low.

Then came a 9-month long quiet accumulation period where price was volatile but remained sideways, which preceded the 2016+ bull market.

I've always understood the word "capitulation" to mean the mass selloff phase. The "despair" phase is the quiet period that comes after, where most everyone has already sold and given up on the market.

"past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" refers to predictions about future performance. that's not relevant here. my point is about whether capitulation occurred according to discrete conditions. i've been referring to "capitulation" in the technical sense (see earlier link), which is indicated by high volume. "high volume" is a relative term that requires comparison to other similar events (major bottoms), otherwise it has no meaning. there is no prediction about future performance here, just comparisons to establish whether "high volume" actually occurred. re: the december bottom, it clearly didn't, by any possible metric. you need to cherry-pick and omit past samples in order to call december a "high volume" bottom.

discounting the february 2018 bottom is short-sighted for that reason. it took much, much more buying volume to establish that long term bottom than december. that's the underlying logic here: we're looking for huge volume to signify that everyone who plans to sell has sold. that's why the february bottom held for so long. sellers were completely exhausted.


in other words, "this time it's different" aka the most dangerous words in investing, lol. i don't have any interest in predicting what's going to happen the next few years. i do have an interest in observing when a capitulation bottom has occurred, because the subsequent rally is usually very profitable (unlike the recent bounce off the $3100s).

What is your target for catching the knife? Or will you be going strictly off volume?

And I'm talking about the same

If it was a true "bottom", it wouldn't look like a bottom at all (e.g. like a seabed). It would be like a "big red dildo" with an almost instant and powerful rebound. But what we saw in late November and early December looked more like a hydraulic press crushing the prices without any genuine rebound. So while it definitely looks like a bottom, it may not be the one in the trading sense of the word (read, we have yet to see that "big red dildo")


I'm skeptical about any ATH's in the foreseeable future (other than local ones, of course)

tone vays, willy woo and all the others who are trying to call a bottom are all tools, and will all wind up vilified like vinny lingham, who called the top of bitcoin at $3k in 2017. all i can say is no one saw $20k coming and you arent going to see capitulation coming either. there is no for gone conclusion that there has to be any type of capitulation move.
Personally In 2017 I didnt think and Im sure most others probably didnt think  the bull run was on until we hit $5k. Im sure new blood didnt get in until even later than that. So imo right now all that is left are holders. The way many view a capitulation bottom around here is almost like a manipulated move by traders and whales to shake out weak hands blah blah. there are always going to be weak hands, but a $2k or $1k bottom would be like killing the golden goose if it was manipulated to those levels. the long term damage to the reputation of crypto would not be worth what small amount of coins that would be shaken loose.
 you are all fooling yourselves. trying to use reverse psychology being all negative and down on bitcoin so somehow whales or traders see all this negative sentiment and start the next bull run. not going to happen.  if anything the bull run will start and all those waiting for capitulation will pay through the nose because you will fomo. Make decisions on your own dont be sheep.

Well, if the recent rally was not good enough for you, then which is?

Just in case, after the December crash (I refer to 2018, obviously) we started from $3200 and rose to almost $4400 (Bitfinex prices) which is like (4400-3200)/3200x100=37%. If you consider this as not very profitable for just a month, then I don't know, you turn out to be an extremely greedy guy, possibly beyond reasonable limits (given the current market, at least)

And yes, I think that this time it is different. You see, if I'm proved wrong, I'm okay with that as I will only lose part of my future profits. But if, on the other hand, I'm proved right after all, I will preserve my capital mostly intact (by massive hedging) and may even earn something (via shorts). I think this is a good trade-off, any way you look at it

At least, he has his own opinions about bitcoin price although, in the future, his prediction can be wrong. We have our own opinions too based on what we did so far, and I don't have to feel anything because I think bitcoin price can go up or down, it depends on the traders itself. If somehow, one bad news can trigger many traders become panic, then the price will get down without any delay. It's all about how we can prevent from the worst thing that might come later. So the better we can prevent, the big chance for us to reduce the loss.

A bottom of the price of bitcoin at 2500? That is not so bad, while some will probably get scared with such a low price the truth is the bottom never lasts that long, if we reached such price it will only last a few days or weeks giving you the opportunity to buy bitcoin for a price close to 10% of its all time high, while many will be afraid of doing such a maneuver those which have the guts and confidence in bitcoin will reap the rewards in just a few months.

Generally, true bottoms can't be bought manually. You either need to set up buy orders in advance on various lower levels in the hope that they get filled, or have a bot jump in for you, because you can be sure of the fact that you are way too slow. I currently have no buy orders open, but will do so the moment we close below the 200 wma, which is a clear signal that there is more blood to come.

And yes, the joes of this world don't have the balls to buy in when the price is going down, especially if they tried to buy previous (way higher) dips with no success. We have had so many dips this year, and every one so far turned out to be the wrong one to buy, so we'll need more time to see if the $3200 will be added to that list. I hope not, but you never know here. Crazy shit happens when everyone is panicking at the same time.

@1Referee. You are wrong hehehe. There are regular joes who buy when the price is going down in a bid to buy the lows. Ironically doing it causes more mistakes of buying at the wrong time and at the wrong price.

Most people will not admit this.

What is 85% more certain in this moment, that bitcoin has not hit its true bottom yet or that Tone Vays has a bad hairstyle?

It is moving towards the bad hairstyle, I reckon hehehe.

What's the deal with that anyway? He must have heard 100s of cracks about it by now. Is it a marketing thing? I mean, who could forget about a guy with totally fucked up hair like that?

And probably not in a good way, though

You see, your outlook and appearance matter a lot even if on a purely subconscious level. For example, if someone speaks sense but who is untidy and sloppy overall as well as speaks like he has been lying his entire life, people won't be inclined to believe him much. On the other hand, someone with a decent haircut and expensive suit speaking firmly and confidently will inspire trust and confidence even if he says complete bullshit

many people give such predictions and they may not know if the price of bitcoin has a movement depending on the presence of the buyer or if there is a request, if no one buys bitcoin then the price of bitcoin will never rise.

Nah, I dont care if he had a mohican even.   All it says to me is maverick and he just doesnt care what you think which is the correct attitude for a successful trader.    I dont want to really listen to a human weather vane who just repeats what everyone else is saying, we already know the market runs on hype alot.   To trade successfully he has to spot trades to capture, reversals and break through of resistance

And who the hell this Tone Vays once again? Anyone could be a speculator, we cant say that his prediction isn't possible but basing on his previous predictions we can really say
that theres no point on looking or hearing out again his predictions.

He might not have. His hair might have before it was installed.

I still retain an open mind. If we've already bottomed that feels a bit too easy to me but I guess it wasn't to all the newcomers who got a good seeing to.

I think its like you said, to those who have been in crypto for many years this isnt so scary and just another cycle. Though to those who just got in recently have never seen lows so low.

Same here but indeed we need to recognize these bear cycles are much easier to stomach once you've seen it before.

No matter what, I think we're going back near the bottom again. Even if December is the lowest we go, we're probably still going to have another selloff event like in August of 2015. So maybe it won't be so easy after all. We still need the "despair" phase to finish playing out.

Whoever is still waiting for the bottom level of Bitcoin and other crypto currency aside from what we have seen so far will wait in vain, and may lose the chance of investing at the cheaper rate. I don't believe in what OP quoted as it has no strong probability of the prediction coming to fulfilment. Although, am of the believe that Bitcoin might not reach the height of $20000 before end of the year.

I reckon he might be one of the early bitcoin investors that came into the cryptospace before 2013. He has many followers in social media, however I would still choose the more entertaining Tom Lee over him hehehe.