Tone Vays Is 85% Certain Bitcoin (BTC) Hasn’t Hit True Bottom

[bbc.reporter]

This is Tone Vays. The person who predicted that bitcoin's all time high will be about $7000 on 2017. I reckon it was where he liquidated his long positions hehehe.

In any case, will he be wrong again on predicting the bottom? Arthur Hayes of Bitmex predicted his bottom on $2500.



In a recent episode of On The Record, Vays spoke with Murad Mahmudov on all things crypto, revealing that he’s 85% certain that Bitcoin has not yet made a true bottom.

In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000. Based on the discussion, it seems that Vays agrees many altcoins are still far too expensive for the bear market to be over. This includes names like Ethereum (ETH), EOS, Cardano (ADA), XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

On the other end of the spectrum, Vays predicts that the crypto market will not see all-time highs again, including Bitcoin to $20K, likely until 2020. That means that he sees the next two years as a choppy trading environment.

Read in full https://sludgefeed.com/tone-vayes-sets-1800-for-bitcoin-bottom/

[pooya87]

In any case, will he be wrong again on predicting the bottom?

then what's the significance of posting it here

In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000.

it sounds to me like someone who is dying to fill some shorts and will be satisfied if there were a big drop which gave him the profit he seeks from those shorts.

in any case it seems like it is one of those times when again everyone becomes a prophet and starts predicting bitcoin price and most of them are ridiculous like this one here.

[stoat]

Tone vays. Along with most visible members of the bitcoin community is a repugnant moronic individual with bad dress sense

[adaseb]

I wouldn't take anything he takes too seriously. He is not an active trader.

From what I remember, he recorded himself taking a 1 BTC 5x short on BTC sometime in the summer and it was the only trade he took the entire year. Obviously he got lucky with that prediction.

However him saying BTC will go to $1K is like that Tom Lee guy saying it should of hit $15K at the end of 2018.

They are all guesses and nothin accurate. However some guesses do turn out to be correct from time to time.

[davis196]

I kinda agree with his prediction (despite the fact that he is a "bear" and he is dying to see a lower bitcoin price).The true bottom will be around 2-3K USD and any new ATH will happen after the next 2020 halving.
It takes a lot of time to build some new hype around bitcoin.The market is insecure and the fear dominates over the greed.

[STT]

I watch this guy a few times and I wouldnt say to dismiss him but everyone is limited in their sight and prediction.     Alot of people were calling a trend change summer to autumn, it could have also been a break upwards but it wasnt till the news arrived with what appeared to more negative fork news somehow being related to BTC that market perhaps took that road.

Its easily possible Vays could be correct on some time line but calling out absolute prices and dates is kinda doomed from the start.    Also he doesnt reference the dollar enough, thats a giant source of liquidity and influence on pricing for all sorts of commodities and BTC especially seems to react to a weaker dollar.
Iam looking on the chart for dollar to place a lower high pricing then it did in 2017, if it can do that then we see a far easier landscape for BTC, crypto and many prices.   How long this takes, could be the whole of 2019

[DeathAngel]

Does his Mom cut his hair with a knife & fork?

Seriously who cares what this douche predicts. These guys are wrong with their price predictions all the tike. Throw enough shit at a wall & eventually some of it will stick.

[Its About Sharing]

I kinda agree with his prediction (despite the fact that he is a "bear" and he is dying to see a lower bitcoin price).The true bottom will be around 2-3K USD and any new ATH will happen after the next 2020 halving.
It takes a lot of time to build some new hype around bitcoin.The market is insecure and the fear dominates over the greed.

Sure, when you look at a BTC chart and the last year or so, to say a bottom is in is way premature. Tone is clearly a Bitcoin maximalist, but that said, he sure isn't a perma-bull. His 9 count candle method (which I don't yet grasp - haven't studied it) appears fairly accurate. Anyway, I myself can see BTC coming back to 2500 USD but lots of factors are in play.(e.g. Venezuela - real world problems guys!).

I would NOT just be sitting in cash in these times. Having been through these "Bitcoin bubbles" before, you know when the true despair sets in and I'm not really sure we've hit that. Regardless, unless you are just going to hoddle, don't put all your eggs in one basket time wise (i.e. calling an end to a bear, bottom, etc.) Bitcoin moves really quick going up, don't get lost waiting for a bottom.

I "listen" to a lot of opinions on Bitcoin, don't  hold any of them, but take them into account along with what my TA/mind see's. Alessio is nice to watch btw on Youtube...

[gentlemand]

it seems that Vays agrees many altcoins are still far too expensive for the bear market to be over. This includes names like Ethereum (ETH), EOS, Cardano (ADA), XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

He thinks anything that's not BTC is a scam and this is colouring his judgement. Most of the time he is of course right but it doesn't matter what he feels. Enough other people do not agree with him. I too am amazed what shit out there still has a pulse. No one cares what I think either.

He could well be right about his Bitcoin price call. So far this feels very similar to the 6-6500 range, like it's hanging around waiting to hang itself.

 

[Bitcoinwaist]

ltc is up 50% in the last month. btc will soon follow.

[Febo]

In a recent episode of On The Record, Vays spoke with Murad Mahmudov on all things crypto, revealing that he’s 85% certain that Bitcoin has not yet made a true bottom.

In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000. Based on the discussion, it seems that Vays agrees many altcoins are still far too expensive for the bear market to be over. This includes names like Ethereum (ETH), EOS, Cardano (ADA), XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

85-40-10=35%  So he believes by 35% chance that bottom will be between $2000 and $3200.

[HODL2090]

As a trader or as an investor, you have ti draw your prognosis on the future of the market inorder to profit from it. It's simply a prediction or speculation of where the market is heading rather than where you want it to be.

There is no guarantee that you would be right, but that's the risk involved.
You can listen to analysis of people like Tone Vays, and other more enthusiastis investors and use the information to draw your own analysis.

[mindrust]

I wouldn't take anything he takes too seriously. He is not an active trader.

From what I remember, he recorded himself taking a 1 BTC 5x short on BTC sometime in the summer and it was the only trade he took the entire year. Obviously he got lucky with that prediction.

He has an explanation for this.

He basically trades 2 or 3 times a year. He never does a trade before he is  %99 sure about the situation he is in. Being an active trader isn't always a good thing. Trading too many times is like playing dice every day. You'll lose everything in the end. If you do 10 trades every day, can you say you are sure of every trade you do? Nope. You'll fuck it up eventually.

I don't agree with everything he says but I can see his reasoning and his reasoning is mostly right which usually makes him right in the end.

One other thing:

If he is also right about the 2020 prediction, then waiting for the absolute bottom doesn't make the most sense. If you knew btc will hit 20k in 2020 or 2021, what difference would it make to buy it from 3.5k or 2k? Not much. As long as you are DCA'ing you are on the safe side.

[bbc.reporter]

I kinda agree with his prediction (despite the fact that he is a "bear" and he is dying to see a lower bitcoin price).The true bottom will be around 2-3K USD and any new ATH will happen after the next 2020 halving.
It takes a lot of time to build some new hype around bitcoin.The market is insecure and the fear dominates over the greed.

For everyone's information, he is not a bear. He is one of the most maximalist of all the bitcoin maximalists in the cryptospace. For him, any cryptocoin that is not a bitcoin is a scam hehehe. He trades both directions of the market, however.

[stoat]

if one obsolete chi-com controlled currency is pumping the other one must follow

Put your money in the bin and set it on fire. Save some time.

[Japinat]

Let's just stop listening to this people, even if they are popular in crypto.
People who invested or trade with crypto have different opinion and prediction, and they might also be wrong because they are not God.
Back in the days, who would have predicted bitcoin to become this big, most does not even see it come, so let's just be calm and stick to what we believe.

[justdimin]

I don't think this is much of a news. If you look at just couple things about Tony Vays you can understand why he doesn't deserve the spotlight given to him. First of all even OP starts out with Tony's big prediction of 7 thousand dollar max and he was dead wrong on that, almost 3 times higher was seen in bitcoin.

Lets move on to his CV, dude was a geology major, he finished college with a geophysical engineering degree, nothing about bitcoin there, nothing technological like software engineer who built blockchain. He moved to financial engineering, which is the wall streets of our world but graduated from "Florida state" university, which might as well be an online degree you get for free.

Somehow got jobs at amazing places like bear stearns and jp morgan which I assume was for couple pennies a month since it would be highly unlikely someone like him to get in places like that. The only thing he did in crypto world was being a "writer" for cointelegraph, which in itself is nothing, we all can do it. Hence he is sooooo ineligible to make any statements about bitcoin that my grandma and tony vays have same credibility when it comes to bitcoin and my grandma doesn't know what bitcoin is.

[El duderino_]

hit bottom or not TONE VAYS is one of the biggest idiots in the space ........... good he made that one trade few weeks back

[figmentofmyass]

sweet haircut, tone!

it seems that Vays agrees many altcoins are still far too expensive for the bear market to be over. This includes names like Ethereum (ETH), EOS, Cardano (ADA), XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

He thinks anything that's not BTC is a scam and this is colouring his judgement. Most of the time he is of course right but it doesn't matter what he feels.

the "tone vays indicator" has historically worked very well, at least during bull markets. if he calls it a scam, it's about to make another leg up!

i'm not saying he's wrong in all his opinions on altcoins, but he's a great contrarian indicator. same with his calls on bitcoin---he's always too conservative. he just doesn't know how to account for speculative hype. he always aims too low and he thinks the market is smarter than it is.

what does "altcoins are still too expensive" even mean? what price or market cap could you expect that isn't totally arbitrary.... a wild guess?

[deisik]

In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000.[/glow] Based on the discussion, it seems that Vays agrees many altcoins are still far too expensive for the bear market to be over. This includes names like Ethereum (ETH), EOS, Cardano (ADA), XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

On the other end of the spectrum, Vays predicts that the crypto market will not see all-time highs again, including Bitcoin to $20K, likely until 2020. That means that he sees the next two years as a choppy trading environment.[/i]

Read in full https://sludgefeed.com/tone-vayes-sets-1800-for-bitcoin-bottom/

85% certain, 40% chance, 10% chance, what's next? How do they get all these percentages, straight out of their ass, I guess? I understand when someone says that he is like 90% sure that something is gonna happen (or not happen). This is not to be taken literally as it is just a figure of speech to show how certain one can be about something. But 85 and 40 percent? Give me a break

Though I agree that shit like Bitcoin Cash (whatever denomination) is far too expensive