Bitcoin Forum

All I keep reading is that Aurora is currently overvalued because there is a 10.5m total coin supply and only so much of it is in circulation since it is a new currency. I get it. Since only so many coins are available for exchange, the coins that can be bought and sold are inflated in price. Basic supply and demand.

Well, my question is, firstly, and correct me if I'm wrong: after airdrop this raises the total coin supply to 21 million, correct? So Aur will have a total coin supply of 21 million with how much Aurora in circulation? We all know all of Iceland isn't getting their 31 Aur on March 25th. It will certainly be a gradual airdrop assuming it's executed as planned. Not every Icelander will be claiming its 31 Aur right away, if at all.

So assuming the actual exchangeable coin supply on March 24th isn't that much different from the exchangeable coin supply on March 25th, and the total coin supply on March 25th doubles from 10.5m to 21m, with the same supply and demand theory applied to the March 25th market capitalization, its price should increase. Since only so many coins are available for exchange, the coins that can be bought and sold are inflated in price. Basic supply and demand. Not to mention, the percentage of coins that can be exchanged after airdrop are a drastically smaller fraction than pre-airdrop.

A rough numbers look based on very rough estimates:

March 24th - 200,000 liquid coin supply/10,500,000 total coin supply  = 1.9% liquid Aurora that can be traded hands against the market cap

March 25th (Airdrop) - 300,000 liquid coin supply /21,000,000 total coin supply (let's say for whatever reason liquid coin supply increases by 100,000 over night)  =  1.4% liquid Aurora that can be traded hands against the market cap

TL;DR, shouldn't we be considering the price of Aur to spike after March 25th?

Devs are pretty much guaranteed not to be in Iceland. Coin would be illegal to distribute in Iceland from everything I've read

Whether or not I believe the devs legitimately plan this airdrop, when I think about how ludicrous the logistics are, I pretty much end up answering my own question.

can't wait to see the airdrop (DUMP) ill be eating some popcorn :)

Oh, how did I fail?


That's great, but that's more on the conspiracy side of things. I'm looking more at the numbers and economics side of things.

Yes it will free fall. Er um, literally!  ;)

I understand that's the theory. Explain your reasoning, and why the decreased percentage of liquid coins post-Airdrop won't affect the price (pretending that the Airdrop will be effective).

popquiz:

What does the average Joe do with money after he receives it ?

uhm, spend it maybe ?  :o

so what do you recon the average joe in iceland gonna do huh ? after he gets free money brainiac ?

and what does he have to do first when he wants to spend auroracoin ?  :)

The average Joe won't be getting his 31 Aur on March 25th.

aha ok, so it is going to be some special targeted airdrop that only drops the money on the safers and speculators in the icelandic economy in the beginning of the airdrop and not on the 80 % or so of the population that just spends all the money that comes in every month or what ?

And what will happen to all these "if collected at all" coins you mention ?

don't you mean the average Sigurður don't be getting jack shit come march 25th?

Seems appropriate there isn't a single icelander in the development team for an 'icelandic' currency.  

I expect those who have heard of the crypto to come and attempt to claim their stake on day 1. I don't expect them to be allotted their stake on day one. I also do not expect much of Iceland to come claim their stake unless a larger media presence takes place on the focus of this coin. This results in a lot of unclaimed Aurora at the outset of the airdrop.

I think a larger media presence is almost guaranteed by the theme of this coin.

Well, if the airdrop is effective, yes.

I think its likely whether the air drop is completed or not.

We all know what happened to a premined coin after the pump stage: the dump; Try the next premined one...

No, the price will not rise, or if it does it will be by sheer manipulation and pumping, in which case it will crash immediately after.

You see, Aurora is scam, not just an ordinary scam, but one predicated on a lie that will be exposed when the airdrop goes wrong.

Why people even believe what they are told about it is beyond me.

Someone was even going on about "feeding Iceland" ffs!