Bitcoin Forum

Although I don't believe that will be the case, and althought we all know that development of BTC price is all but predictable and linear, so there is no chance for this to happen, I would like to ask, hypothetically, what is your opinion on this (im)possible scenario:

Would you be satisfied with steady, gradual rise of BTC price?  e.G. 500 per month in 2019.
Something like this:
1. May 5000 USD (let's suppose that BTC had finished its price growth for this month on 2nd of April :-)
1. June 5500 $
1. July 6000 $
1. August 6500 $
1. September  7000 $
1. October  7500 $
1. November 8000 $
1. December 8500 $
1. January 2020. 9000 $

Let's suppose that, thanks to forthcoming halving in May, from this moment on, price grows 1000 USD per month.
so..
1. February 2020.   10000 $
1. March 2020  11000 $ (so on March 3rd 2020 I could re-open this topic after 15 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2510943.msg25663426#msg25663426)
1. April 2020 12000 $
1. May 2020 13000 $

So, at the month of halving, the price would be around 13700 $.
After that, another speed-up, and on 1. January 2021 the price could be e.g. 25-30k $.

I believe this would be very healthy, it would give enough time for BTC ecosystem to develop further, give sense of stability to institutional investors etc... without euphoria...

I think I've decided that I don't actually like bubbles all that much. The behaviour becomes incredibly obnoxious, what pumps is ever more stupid and insulting and if you want to actually benefit from the hysteria then if you try to exchange something your trade might fall apart or not happen at all. The aftermath is of course where you pay the real price.

However it's as inevitable as the sun rising every morning. It's how our minds work. The only thing that'll change it will be ubiquity and even then the fixed supply situation may ensure it keeps on happening.

I agree with this part. Price stability seems to be a major part in determining the confidence of certain investors.

I personally wouldn't care as much about what short term price movements are though, simply because of the fact that I'm a long term investor, and fundamentals in the long run is what will drive growth. That includes the actual network and its developments, adoption rates, institutional adoption, etc. that are completely unrelated to how prices move in the span of months or even years. So I really don't care whether or not prices go up by x% in a certain amount of time.

However, your model likely won't pan out in the real world. People don't look at fundamentals when trading in the short term, rather, emotions play an extremely big role. That's why you see pumps like the one that we saw that took BTC from $4k to $5k, due to FOMO. You're going to see cycles of rallies and corrections, instead of steady growth.

I know there is literally no chance to see this in reality..
I just wanted to see how many people would like and appreciate this model instead of bull runs and bear market 80 % falls ... euphoria and depression --- or how many people are too impatient to wait... and the opinion on benefits of this model to btc system in general., because there are opinions that exactly crazy bull runs attract people to invest, following FOMO and greed..

For quite some time now, I'm having exactly the same conclusions on your adequate "euphoria and depression" model.
Steady and generally gradual growth, seems like the only way possible. Any other than that fills the market with doubts and uncertainty and those simply can not work well for businesses of individuals. Nevertheless this is free a market, one of the last truly free in fact so it will arrange itself without our help. Whatever its path will be, it's going to be a wonderful study and I found myself lucky to ba a part of it.  

Steady and gradual will NEVER happen with crypto though it would be preferable in many ways.

What people tend to forget is that every other market they're familiar with has the value they start trading it at either decided by centuries of track record, like gold and silver, or some stock analyst who decides the price that trading begins at.

Crypto's come up from zero. No one knows where it's going to go. No one really knows what it's for. That's a guaranteed recipe for violent volatility and it's playing out exactly like that too. Birth is not a smooth process. It's a series of contractions. That's what's happening here too.

Never say never :)

That's a nice analogy and I tend to agree with you, however bitcoin is 10 now, don't you think the labour part is long over?
Sure, in comparison to other, classic assets being 10 is like being 0.1 however a day of birth is also a bad representation.
Maybe this is exactly what we are getting here, following the kid analogy, crypto is becoming a teenager and as such it "decides" its place in life? Still long way to go, I hope and stabilisation is not excluded. It may happen.

This process will level out when enough people have gotten involved. It's still a fraction of the potential userbase involved now.

The bones of the internet got started in the 1950s. It was still thought of as deeply silly 40 years later. When you include money and the innate conservatism of people when it comes to money 10 years is still early days.

Honestly, i already satisfied with bitcoin price right now. I see bitcoin price from 2015 it is make big improvement and even we reach it's peak at 2017, but when down it is not really dumped and can be stable like now.

only day traders want hug volatility because that is the only way they can earn massive profits. everyone else from investors to all those who bought bitcoin because it was a decentralized currency not because of profit, don't like the volatility at all. so the gradual rise should technically be what the majority wants.
but in reality it is not going to happen for many years because the market is still small and the growth (adoption) happens with surges not with a fixed speed. for example in 2017 we suddenly saw a surge of newcomers to bitcoin to the point where Coinbase reported they had 1 million sign ups within a week or so IIRC.


i hope you realize that these are NOT "gradual rises", instead this is a decreasing rise. basically your first step says 10% rise in one month and you reduce it every month until 2020 where you expect only 3% rise per month!

Perhaps we are already satisfied on it because of the improvement of the market now from $4000, and it will be great in my opinion if it will continue to grow atleast 10k also.  So that we still can make money and we are able to regain all of our Losses since bearish broke the market.

of course it is more preferable if price was more stable or was rising gradually. one of the best times in bitcoin in my opinion was the 2015 year where price was rising with a solid support and slowly towards a 100% rise by the end of the year.
but this cannot happen, not because bitcoin is unpredictable but mainly because stability brings in more adoption since it would be so much easier to use bitcoin as a currency if it is more stable and more adoption means more rise so the price should shoot up. in other words the stability it self is the reason for some of the rises.

that's what the lead-up to bubbles is like. personally i'd be thrilled for bitcoin to grow like this---who wouldn't be? it would be outperforming real estate and stocks by a mile and holding coins wouldn't present much risk because no euphoria/no bubble.

but like you said, it's a moot question. once the market sees these steady gains, supply will dry up and demand will surge, causing another bubble. it's the nature of markets.

  Recently, bitcoin's value pump up gradually and it is a good sign for a numerous bull run by this 2019. After suffering from long bear market atleast now, we can forsee how bitcoin will grow accumulately and hoping for its fast recovery and endure its growth become stable.

this could only satisfy me if the price (like the current one) was a healthy one then we could have had a healthy stable rise from there. but when we are in a price that is the result of an unhealthy manipulation (dump) that has brought it in an unstable state, all we can expect is wild rises because this low price is just as bad and unstable as the high price at the top of the bubble.

:-) I hope you realize that I wrote "gradual rise of BTC price", not gradual or decreasing difference in the amount of price difference, or rise of  monthly % of price difference. You have to be precise with words..
My post was meant just as overly simplified illustration, without pretending to show mathematically correct model of growth in %.

Btw, if growth from 10k to 11k $, or growth from 11k to 12k in 2020 is only 3 % monthly, then I will visit my math professor and blame him for making me this lousy calculation :-)

But we agree on the important thing, 1) that this would be desirable type of growth and 2) that it unfortunately won't be the case, or at least not for longer periods of time. The numbers are not important for that story, it is the question of model and type of development..I could omit this exact numbers..it would be perhaps better (anyway, I don't like hundreds of new topics with the topics like: "will BTC reach 12749 USD before November 15th 2019, 16:24 CET time".. :-)
Even though I don't have enough knowledge to write such things by myself, I prefer to read "deeper", substantial, topics on present situation  and possible developments in the next 4-5 years..
The rest, regarding calculation and percentage if it was not meant to provide such precise calculation , is just splitting hairs...

Well most of the traders and investors are probably okay with the current movement. I have no problem with a gradual rise and i even prefer it to be this way rather than risk another 2018 correction after a bull run.

Well we have seen that it's better to have a steady climb instead of a massive growth that we witnessed in 2017, specially in the last couple of weeks of December wherein there are a lot who FOMO and think that the price will continue to go on a parabolic rise, but all sign pointing out that we are also in a bubble and just waiting to be burst. Which eventually happened in 2018. A healthy and organic rise will be better, specially in the long run.

There are those who are only interested in quick profit, they do not care for anything else except for higher price. If you asked them do they want to price hit 100k$ tomorrow, but after that bitcoin will stop exist - most would be voted for that. Those who think differently certainly want slow growth without big pumps, but for now it is not possible to achieve that. Bitcoin is still something that can be easily manipulated, and we can see that by the example of the last jump, all you need is money, actually a lot of money.

On the other hand, volatility of bitcoin and big pumps in the end always result in correction, which also allows some new users to buy bitcoin at a much cheaper price than would be possible in the case of constant slow growth without any corrections in price.

Yes, why not just a grow of at least 1500$ every month, and until the end of year 2019 to have over 15000$ price for 1 bitcoin. Is better maybe to have little by little grow and a big one on short time, maybe if grow little by little will be more stable if hit higher value.

I don’t think there has been so much of manipulation in this current one too, even if it were to follow the pattern the op mentioned, there will always be decrease in price a little bit before picking the next target which I don’t see as manipulation.

This is natural so long we have the presence of traders in the market who would always take advantage of any price fluctuation they see to their benefits but, they do that to also reinvest back to bitcoin, this is why we will see a little decrease and massive increase after some time.

The sharp increase we experienced last was just done to correct the market and place us on a bull market.

That will be good for everyone who has to buy and sell bitcoin because with the growing of $1500 every month, we can make a good profit and if we can trade in many times in every day by monthly, then we can make a bigger profit.

I will be satisfied if the price can increase $1000 every month until the halving comes because $1000 means a lot of money for me and I am sure that it will be the same as the other people. But unfortunately, that is only a scenario which we don't know if it could happen or not and we could only dreaming that thing will happen.

But good if you have that dream because dream will come true at the right time ;)

Where you do get that $1000 per month increase? We have seen that the entire market is moving sideways for almost a year and half.We are playing between 3k and 5k price so
i cant see that $1000 increase per month but well we do know that the price might increase for future years to come.

If Bitcoin can follow this trend suggested, it will be the healthiest coin one can invest in, it will give many investors courage to come in at any time to invest, and we will always witness increase in the number of investment every month till it reaches its ATH.

This price action will also guide against premature dumping because every investor will always look up to the next value of bitcoin by still holding on the their investment pending the time the coin reaches ATH for them to sell their coin and take the profit, just that this will benefit more of those who are into short term trading and day traders too.

Of course, I would be totally satisfied to see such a gradual growth in the price of bitcoin, but it is well known that markets do not behave in such an organic way, but tend to move in cyclical jumps; In addition, the behavior of bitcoin has been quite sui generis in comparison to all the commodities, currencies or assets that up to now exist, which increases the difficulty to predict the possible scenarios that could face the price of bitcoin in the years to come.

Same thoughts here bro. That's why i'm hoping this kind of trend continues instead of what people are hoping for, which is another bull run, which i think is premature at this point. Drastic upward fluctuations like that demand a steep correction just like what happend 2 years ago.

I prefer a gradual increase and look more stable, and for a spike like a nail I don't like it because it will make the price likely to fall freely.

While your thoughts on a steady growth sounds appealing, I even like the idea, but the likely rise of $500 per month isn't logically nor sustainable. The best thing is for it to rise and fall but rise more steadily, and with varying percentage.

IMHO bitcoin market is doing just fine. The rise and fall are typical of market sentiments. After all machines don't own Bitcoin to give it an algorithmic growth.

I agree with the fact that it is indeed better than 2015, but still Im not satisfied enough wirh the current price of Bitcoin, which tend for everyone to hold their money and too afraid to invest and buy the tokens that bounties had issue, since it's their lose if ever that they would come up buying tokens without the fluctuation of the price and that's what most of the people say is experiencing right now, which I also experience, it's been 2 years since I hold my tokens, but I still believe that sooner it will fluctuate soon and recently I have found out an exchange which allows everyone to convert their bitcoin into another assets which we may used for gaming, investing and many more and that was  Darb (https://darbfinance.com/?=crowd) and it allows me to experience a faster way of making transactions.

Who do you think will deny if this will become truthful?

Imagine you will have a steady gain per month? Man this is a huge amount if you will invest all you resources, and i van even stop to teal work and invest all my money so i van gain atleast 3000-5000$ a month and thats.more than enough for living, and also i may consider selling my house and car to invest .

But ofcourse this are all impossible and only a dream that will never come true

Bitcoin might not be moving in that way and currently we are seeing bitcoin trying to make significant move that might push it above $6000 before end of next week.  I most say that if it moved base on your analysis I think it will be a good thing but i don't think it is going to move like that. Bitcoin will have a serious move this year and I think we are going to have another type of bull run we have in 2017.

I would be happy with a gradual increase but in your example it will be very predictable for traders and it will never go upwards.
The reason why the market is pushed upwards is because traders think that can go downwards.
I expect to see an increase till the end of the year, a small one, that will show to the community that Bitcoin is not dead and it is moving.

 Seeing gradual pump has enlighten the mind on those people who are lack of trust on visioning the possible growth will occur. I know some people are disappointed on dealing the long months of bearishness of the market field and now it is a good sign to engage positivity and determination to continue on investing probably on bitcoin, that show strong potential asset among all coins. And let us keep optimism for a bountiful growth of bitcoin will exceed and its value will reach the desirable peak that will satisfied us.

A gradual increase is more inviting for me rather than a volatile one, though seeing the all-time charts, we can say that we have achieved the 'gradual increase' part albeit being a clonky one. Every cycle we achieve higher highs and higher lows, so that somehow seals what this post is about. With the entry of institutional investors and VCs in the market, it's safe to say that bitcoin's gradual increase is guaranteed, though the price should not be the only concern but also the adoption, too.

Nope,

I think the best opportunities occur when Bitcoin go up and down like a crazy bull. I remember when I first bought some, the price have gone down and took years to recover. It should be always like this. So only the strongest will have the balls to hodl.

I guess that would be both good and bad accordingly to how you manage to do it. If the price is gradually increasing but so slowly that its insane how slow it is than it would make sense but if its increasing too quickly than where could it land? Like will it be 100 million dollars per bitcoin at some point ? So yeah, gradually increasing is good if its going like 5%-10% a year but anything above that is not sustainable for a long period of time.

The decentralized version of the market that keeps going up and down helps us a bit to actually make the market fair for everyone involved, it is never known what it will do for a long period of time, and that is why its incredibly valuable when it goes up since you might have gotten it before it went down instead and you are lucky it went up.

I may think that everyone had suffer such portfolio's declines when there is a unexpected drop of price.  It is all inevitable market changes and only have guts to manage our emotions will survive from this crazy market trend.  This is also some reason why a lot of people quit that easy when they lose hope with the market. 

For who lose that easy maybe join bitcoin when it is on high price. Because if they join when bitcoin still growing around 2014 - 2015, they wouldn't that easy lose their hope because they know bitcoin have very low price before and it can increased that much.

lol, it is easy for YOU to say it today that you are seeing the price is a lot bigger than the price in 2014-2015 otherwise those years were the exact same as today (which is weird because you chose those years instead of say 2016-2017). in fact price was falling all through 2014 and some in 2015 just like it was falling in 2018 and people were depressed similarly!

First of all , there is no such thing as steady here in crypto as we all know that cryptos are volatile  . second of all , i prefer the unexpected pump than a slow gradual price and i believe everyone will agree on me because that is the only time that we can sell our coins at a good price  . third of all , ill still be satisfied no matter what happens to bitcoin whether there will be no more higher pumps that can occur in the future .

Some investors has expected that the gradually price will happen. We can see the price movement start january 2019 and the price seems like continue to up although we can see the reversal came just for a while. And now in May bitcoin price has touched $5500 after a few days back the price fall to $5000 but the buyer still expecting that its price can go higher than $5500. Maybe this is pointed out bitcoin price can meet increased price per month and we can see that later.

I think that of the proposed two options for increasing the price of Bitcoin a 500 and 1000 dollars a month, I think that the growth will be average. By the end of the year, we can see Bitcoin at $ 10,000 in its price. It would also be nice if Bitcoin and another cryptocurrency this year will grow in price more stable. Small deviations in price will, of course, be inevitable. I do not even hope for a big market growth this year.

See dude,  first of all who doesn't like the increase in thr price of Bitcoin? I mean literally all love it.
We all still remembered the craze when BTC was 20k usd. And it's still hard for many of us to see Bitcoin is far from that mark.
But the recent growth has enlighten all the people's mind.
They are seeing hope that,  Bitcoin will soon again rise.
So eventually all are loving the growth of Bitcoins.

If I may ask you, what if bitcoin price becomes stable at this price, does that mean you will abandon BTC and never use it again? We full need to study the details about bitcoin, the intention of sir satoshi while creating cryptocurrency, and then we will understand that Bitcoin is really a very strong project to have grown from the ICO price and stabilize at this price now.

We like rushing things and anything one rushes without proper planning collapse eventually, the ATH we reached dated back 2017, was it mass adoption that yielded that value, we know what yielded that value, because people saw away to manipulate it, bitcoin was not supposed to spike sharply like that, it was supposed to gradually approach the value which we ought not to have even seen by now.

Let us all just stop using that abnormal movement of BTC in 2017 to judge its success and progress, BTC is really progressing and its movement now is the healthiest way.

Personally I prefere steady growth over some sudden price rise. But that still doesn't mean stability and continuity in price rise. Bitcoin has thought us over time that volatility is one of its most important characteristics. So the current growth that we are having now still isn't guarantee this trend will continue.

Those who have learnt from the past experience will never dare to lose hope on bitcoin now, after all they have seen bitcoin do in the past, I wish I could turn back the hands to time to that 2015 when bitcoin was cheap, I would be among people that will buy in large quantity and hold it for years, even up to 20 years because of the great future I believe in for bitcoin.

Now that 2015 has gone, this is our 2015 now, we still got the chance to invest for the future, the coin is still cheap now and the profit it will get us in some years’ time would be as if our investment was done in 2015. So let’s leave the past and take advantage of the present market state now.

I am satisfied with how it slowly rise.

I think 500 USD a month is just too much. I can still stay with just 500 a year.
With a steady price, it will be a great invitation for merchants. If I remember correctly that is the reason they are in doubt with bitcoin to be used as a payment option because of the high volatility.
Now, they can go in anytime with a better profit if every year it can increase even for just 500 USD. ;D

So lets spread this positive thing to other people. So they are not blame bitcoin when they lose in their investment. I mean, it is naturally if people will mad when they are lose. But for blame something that must be their risk, it is non sense.
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Well, people are trying, using different means to spread these news and knowledge of bitcoin to every part of the world, and I believe that many ears have heard and many eyes has seen the wonders of investment in bitcoin, so it is left for them to take it, accept it and use it to their own benefit.

You can only force the horse to the river but cannot force the horse to drink from the river, we that has seen the light in bitcoin, we should hold on to it tight and let no whale take away our opportunity, right now, bitcoin has already form the pattern of low drop and low rising which we should get use to, and this pattern will lead us to our ATH.

Bitcoin, take it easy, my friend, in OP I planned 500 USD growth in one month, not in one day... ;D