Would you be satisfied with steady, gradual rise of BTC price?

[Herman Hesse]

Although I don't believe that will be the case, and althought we all know that development of BTC price is all but predictable and linear, so there is no chance for this to happen, I would like to ask, hypothetically, what is your opinion on this (im)possible scenario:

Would you be satisfied with steady, gradual rise of BTC price?  e.G. 500 per month in 2019.
Something like this:
1. May 5000 USD (let's suppose that BTC had finished its price growth for this month on 2nd of April :-)
1. June 5500 $
1. July 6000 $
1. August 6500 $
1. September  7000 $
1. October  7500 $
1. November 8000 $
1. December 8500 $
1. January 2020. 9000 $

Let's suppose that, thanks to forthcoming halving in May, from this moment on, price grows 1000 USD per month.
so..
1. February 2020.   10000 $
1. March 2020  11000 $ (so on March 3rd 2020 I could re-open this topic after 15 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2510943.msg25663426#msg25663426)
1. April 2020 12000 $
1. May 2020 13000 $

So, at the month of halving, the price would be around 13700 $.
After that, another speed-up, and on 1. January 2021 the price could be e.g. 25-30k $.

I believe this would be very healthy, it would give enough time for BTC ecosystem to develop further, give sense of stability to institutional investors etc... without euphoria...

[1715102237]

1715102237

[gentlemand]

I think I've decided that I don't actually like bubbles all that much. The behaviour becomes incredibly obnoxious, what pumps is ever more stupid and insulting and if you want to actually benefit from the hysteria then if you try to exchange something your trade might fall apart or not happen at all. The aftermath is of course where you pay the real price.

However it's as inevitable as the sun rising every morning. It's how our minds work. The only thing that'll change it will be ubiquity and even then the fixed supply situation may ensure it keeps on happening.

[magneto]

I believe this would be very healthy, it would give enough time for BTC ecosystem to develop further, give sense of stability to institutional investors etc... without euphoria...

I agree with this part. Price stability seems to be a major part in determining the confidence of certain investors.

I personally wouldn't care as much about what short term price movements are though, simply because of the fact that I'm a long term investor, and fundamentals in the long run is what will drive growth. That includes the actual network and its developments, adoption rates, institutional adoption, etc. that are completely unrelated to how prices move in the span of months or even years. So I really don't care whether or not prices go up by x% in a certain amount of time.

However, your model likely won't pan out in the real world. People don't look at fundamentals when trading in the short term, rather, emotions play an extremely big role. That's why you see pumps like the one that we saw that took BTC from $4k to $5k, due to FOMO. You're going to see cycles of rallies and corrections, instead of steady growth.

[Herman Hesse]

I know there is literally no chance to see this in reality..
I just wanted to see how many people would like and appreciate this model instead of bull runs and bear market 80 % falls ... euphoria and depression --- or how many people are too impatient to wait... and the opinion on benefits of this model to btc system in general., because there are opinions that exactly crazy bull runs attract people to invest, following FOMO and greed..

[poptok1]

I know there is literally no chance to see this in reality..
I just wanted to see how many people would like and appreciate this model instead of bull runs and bear market 80 % falls ... euphoria and depression --- or how many people are to impatient to wait... and the opinion on benefits of this model to btc system in general., because there are opinions that exactly crazy bull runs attract people to invest, following FOMO and greed..

For quite some time now, I'm having exactly the same conclusions on your adequate "euphoria and depression" model.
Steady and generally gradual growth, seems like the only way possible. Any other than that fills the market with doubts and uncertainty and those simply can not work well for businesses of individuals. Nevertheless this is free a market, one of the last truly free in fact so it will arrange itself without our help. Whatever its path will be, it's going to be a wonderful study and I found myself lucky to ba a part of it.  

[gentlemand]

For quite some time now, I'm having exactly the same conclusions on your adequate "euphoria and depression" model.
Steady and generally gradual growth, seems like the only way possible. Any other than that fills the market with doubts and uncertainty and those simply can not work well for businesses of individuals. Nevertheless this is free a market, one of the last truly free in fact so it will arrange itself without our help. Whatever its path will be, it's going to be a wonderful study and I found myself lucky to ba a part of it.  

Steady and gradual will NEVER happen with crypto though it would be preferable in many ways.

What people tend to forget is that every other market they're familiar with has the value they start trading it at either decided by centuries of track record, like gold and silver, or some stock analyst who decides the price that trading begins at.

Crypto's come up from zero. No one knows where it's going to go. No one really knows what it's for. That's a guaranteed recipe for violent volatility and it's playing out exactly like that too. Birth is not a smooth process. It's a series of contractions. That's what's happening here too.

[poptok1]

Steady and gradual will NEVER happen with crypto though it would be preferable in many ways.

Never say never

Birth is not a smooth process. It's a series of contractions. That's what's happening here too.

That's a nice analogy and I tend to agree with you, however bitcoin is 10 now, don't you think the labour part is long over?
Sure, in comparison to other, classic assets being 10 is like being 0.1 however a day of birth is also a bad representation.
Maybe this is exactly what we are getting here, following the kid analogy, crypto is becoming a teenager and as such it "decides" its place in life? Still long way to go, I hope and stabilisation is not excluded. It may happen.

[gentlemand]

Steady and gradual will NEVER happen with crypto though it would be preferable in many ways.

Never say never

Birth is not a smooth process. It's a series of contractions. That's what's happening here too.

That's a nice analogy and I tend to agree with you, however bitcoin is 10 now, don't you think the labour part is long over?
Sure, in comparison to other, classic assets being 10 is like being 0.1 however a day of birth is also a bad representation.
Maybe this is exactly what we are getting here, following the kid analogy, crypto is becoming a teenager and as such it "decides" its place in life? Still long way to go, I hope and stabilisation is not excluded. It may happen.

This process will level out when enough people have gotten involved. It's still a fraction of the potential userbase involved now.

The bones of the internet got started in the 1950s. It was still thought of as deeply silly 40 years later. When you include money and the innate conservatism of people when it comes to money 10 years is still early days.

[ShowOff]

Honestly, i already satisfied with bitcoin price right now. I see bitcoin price from 2015 it is make big improvement and even we reach it's peak at 2017, but when down it is not really dumped and can be stable like now.

[pooya87]

only day traders want hug volatility because that is the only way they can earn massive profits. everyone else from investors to all those who bought bitcoin because it was a decentralized currency not because of profit, don't like the volatility at all. so the gradual rise should technically be what the majority wants.
but in reality it is not going to happen for many years because the market is still small and the growth (adoption) happens with surges not with a fixed speed. for example in 2017 we suddenly saw a surge of newcomers to bitcoin to the point where Coinbase reported they had 1 million sign ups within a week or so IIRC.

Would you be satisfied with steady, gradual rise of BTC price?  e.G. 500 per month in 2019.
Something like this:
1. May 5000 USD (let's suppose that BTC had finished its price growth for this month on 2nd of April :-)
1. June 5500 $
1. July 6000 $
1. August 6500 $
1. September  7000 $
1. October  7500 $
1. November 8000 $
1. December 8500 $
1. January 2020. 9000 $

Let's suppose that, thanks to forthcoming halving in May, from this moment on, price grows 1000 USD per month.
so..
1. February 2020.   10000 $
1. March 2020  11000 $ (so on March 3rd 2020 I could re-open this topic after 15 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2510943.msg25663426#msg25663426)
1. April 2020 12000 $
1. May 2020 13000 $

i hope you realize that these are NOT "gradual rises", instead this is a decreasing rise. basically your first step says 10% rise in one month and you reduce it every month until 2020 where you expect only 3% rise per month!

[lablab03]

Perhaps we are already satisfied on it because of the improvement of the market now from $4000, and it will be great in my opinion if it will continue to grow atleast 10k also.  So that we still can make money and we are able to regain all of our Losses since bearish broke the market.

[Pursuer]

of course it is more preferable if price was more stable or was rising gradually. one of the best times in bitcoin in my opinion was the 2015 year where price was rising with a solid support and slowly towards a 100% rise by the end of the year.
but this cannot happen, not because bitcoin is unpredictable but mainly because stability brings in more adoption since it would be so much easier to use bitcoin as a currency if it is more stable and more adoption means more rise so the price should shoot up. in other words the stability it self is the reason for some of the rises.

[figmentofmyass]

Although I don't believe that will be the case, and althought we all know that development of BTC price is all but predictable and linear, so there is no chance for this to happen, I would like to ask, hypothetically, what is your opinion on this (im)possible scenario:

So, at the month of halving, the price would be around 13700 $.
After that, another speed-up, and on 1. January 2021 the price could be e.g. 25-30k $.

I believe this would be very healthy, it would give enough time for BTC ecosystem to develop further, give sense of stability to institutional investors etc... without euphoria...

that's what the lead-up to bubbles is like. personally i'd be thrilled for bitcoin to grow like this---who wouldn't be? it would be outperforming real estate and stocks by a mile and holding coins wouldn't present much risk because no euphoria/no bubble.

but like you said, it's a moot question. once the market sees these steady gains, supply will dry up and demand will surge, causing another bubble. it's the nature of markets.

[Cherylstar86]

Perhaps we are already satisfied on it because of the improvement of the market now from $4000, and it will be great in my opinion if it will continue to grow atleast 10k also.  So that we still can make money and we are able to regain all of our Losses since bearish broke the market.

  Recently, bitcoin's value pump up gradually and it is a good sign for a numerous bull run by this 2019. After suffering from long bear market atleast now, we can forsee how bitcoin will grow accumulately and hoping for its fast recovery and endure its growth become stable.

[talkbitcoin]

this could only satisfy me if the price (like the current one) was a healthy one then we could have had a healthy stable rise from there. but when we are in a price that is the result of an unhealthy manipulation (dump) that has brought it in an unstable state, all we can expect is wild rises because this low price is just as bad and unstable as the high price at the top of the bubble.

[Herman Hesse]

only day traders want hug volatility because that is the only way they can earn massive profits. everyone else from investors to all those who bought bitcoin because it was a decentralized currency not because of profit, don't like the volatility at all. so the gradual rise should technically be what the majority wants.
but in reality it is not going to happen for many years because the market is still small and the growth (adoption) happens with surges not with a fixed speed. for example in 2017 we suddenly saw a surge of newcomers to bitcoin to the point where Coinbase reported they had 1 million sign ups within a week or so IIRC.

I agree completely....

Would you be satisfied with steady, gradual rise of BTC price?  e.G. 500 per month in 2019.
Something like this:
1. May 5000 USD (let's suppose that BTC had finished its price growth for this month on 2nd of April :-)
1. June 5500 $
1. July 6000 $
1. August 6500 $
1. September  7000 $
1. October  7500 $
1. November 8000 $
1. December 8500 $
1. January 2020. 9000 $

Let's suppose that, thanks to forthcoming halving in May, from this moment on, price grows 1000 USD per month.
so..
1. February 2020.   10000 $
1. March 2020  11000 $ (so on March 3rd 2020 I could re-open this topic after 15 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2510943.msg25663426#msg25663426)
1. April 2020 12000 $
1. May 2020 13000 $

i hope you realize that these are NOT "gradual rises", instead this is a decreasing rise. basically your first step says 10% rise in one month and you reduce it every month until 2020 where you expect only 3% rise per month!

:-) I hope you realize that I wrote "gradual rise of BTC price", not gradual or decreasing difference in the amount of price difference, or rise of  monthly % of price difference. You have to be precise with words..
My post was meant just as overly simplified illustration, without pretending to show mathematically correct model of growth in %.

Btw, if growth from 10k to 11k $, or growth from 11k to 12k in 2020 is only 3 % monthly, then I will visit my math professor and blame him for making me this lousy calculation :-)

But we agree on the important thing, 1) that this would be desirable type of growth and 2) that it unfortunately won't be the case, or at least not for longer periods of time. The numbers are not important for that story, it is the question of model and type of development..I could omit this exact numbers..it would be perhaps better (anyway, I don't like hundreds of new topics with the topics like: "will BTC reach 12749 USD before November 15th 2019, 16:24 CET time".. :-)
Even though I don't have enough knowledge to write such things by myself, I prefer to read "deeper", substantial, topics on present situation  and possible developments in the next 4-5 years..
The rest, regarding calculation and percentage if it was not meant to provide such precise calculation , is just splitting hairs...

[gabmen]

Perhaps we are already satisfied on it because of the improvement of the market now from $4000, and it will be great in my opinion if it will continue to grow atleast 10k also.  So that we still can make money and we are able to regain all of our Losses since bearish broke the market.

  Recently, bitcoin's value pump up gradually and it is a good sign for a numerous bull run by this 2019. After suffering from long bear market atleast now, we can forsee how bitcoin will grow accumulately and hoping for its fast recovery and endure its growth become stable.

Well most of the traders and investors are probably okay with the current movement. I have no problem with a gradual rise and i even prefer it to be this way rather than risk another 2018 correction after a bull run.

[Baofeng]

Well we have seen that it's better to have a steady climb instead of a massive growth that we witnessed in 2017, specially in the last couple of weeks of December wherein there are a lot who FOMO and think that the price will continue to go on a parabolic rise, but all sign pointing out that we are also in a bubble and just waiting to be burst. Which eventually happened in 2018. A healthy and organic rise will be better, specially in the long run.

[Lucius]

There are those who are only interested in quick profit, they do not care for anything else except for higher price. If you asked them do they want to price hit 100k$ tomorrow, but after that bitcoin will stop exist - most would be voted for that. Those who think differently certainly want slow growth without big pumps, but for now it is not possible to achieve that. Bitcoin is still something that can be easily manipulated, and we can see that by the example of the last jump, all you need is money, actually a lot of money.

On the other hand, volatility of bitcoin and big pumps in the end always result in correction, which also allows some new users to buy bitcoin at a much cheaper price than would be possible in the case of constant slow growth without any corrections in price.

[Adriano2010]

Yes, why not just a grow of at least 1500$ every month, and until the end of year 2019 to have over 15000$ price for 1 bitcoin. Is better maybe to have little by little grow and a big one on short time, maybe if grow little by little will be more stable if hit higher value.