Bitcoin Forum

I know most of you guys hate it when someone points out a bearish set-up , we all want lambos but facts must be stated.


last month i started this topic > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50358025#msg50358025


i mentioned that if we were to close above 20SMA on the weekly, we will head to the 50SMA which was at about 5600$ , that was when btc price was struggling to break 4000$, surprisingly , it did exactly that, despite the low probability.


This suggests that we can very likely continue with the same structure, let's look at the chart. 


https://i.imgur.com/1cU4WRJ.png

looking back at july 2015 , we can see that right after testing the 50SMA we head straight back to the 200SMA , which now sits at around 3600$ , but with a bit of room till the price gets there, it should be at around 3700$-3800$ , also notice that we can have a wick like we did back then, that wick can go to as low as 3300$.


this , plus being at probably the strongest resistance area that we had since day 1 in bitcoin , breaking that from the first trial is not very possible, a good run of correction to the down side is very high likely going to happen.


so don't fomo, don't panic, if the 2015 chart is to repeat itself, in about a month from now, we should mark the our bull-market-starting-point.



*This set up gets invalidated if we close above 6k
*a correction is very likely, but no guarantee we going that low , so buying at possible support areas is the best practice.

This is not a financial advice




let's see what you guys got to say about this, hopping to see some counter-TA and not some crystal ball or my girlfriend thinks so b.s  ::).

also, moon guys, don't hate , i am trying just trying to warn you about a very possible scenario.


Good luck

We very well may be in for a dip.  Remember we were recently at $3k so for those buyers any sniff of a downturn and you might have some large profit taking.  I'm not all in on us being out of the bear.  Let's see

What do we have to hate there, you are thinking very logically but to my mind bitcoin's price is a little bit far from logic. I highly doubt there will be so big fall because: At first we got out from 3K price to 5K which is a great achievement and to my mind it reduced negative thoughts in people, 2nd - today's fall doesn't mean much and I think this time a lot more people will invest in btc rather than those who missed it recently.

Correction is really needed for bitcoin price movements so that the increase is healthier. All possibilities of various predictions are still very open to occur someday. Let's see what will happen. However, I hope the scenario you show doesn't happen and the price of bitcoin can reach $ 6k in the next few weeks.

Good technical analysis but before this happen we will see first the $4000 to $4500 level then if this break we will going to $3000 level logically its hard to predict the price flow of bitcoin right now dont Fomo and trust your own analysis we already in wave 3 correction trend after a huge pump up happen in the last few weeks.

I considered the year long bearish trend as period of establishing what's the real "correction". Therefore, I will closed the book already on that particular concern, at leat for now. That year long is enough already to determined what price can be considered as strong point since it was now break.

Bear movement is always possible to happen but with the slow rise starting from around dipping point to what it's now, I doubt a big bearish trend will happen again. The foundation were properly built per certain level. Going back to $3,800 will not be a product of a bearish trend since we are just there just few periods ago. It just means that the recent hype happened is not that strong.

The 50 days moving average and the 200 days moving average resembles same as the year 2015. By this there is no need of a panic, as the market will be tending to be bearish till it grasp and move completely on the bull trend. This could happen within few months time, in 2015 the trend initiation took place by the month of July. This time it might begin earlier than predicted.

Wouldn't say $3800 is coming just yet, but we could be in for some more downwards action considering here still seems to be significant selling pressure on BTC at the moment, and people are still panic selling seeing the news about Tether. $6k could very well still be in the books for the next several weeks, and this correction we just had was bound to happen eventually anyways. RSI's dropped off to the 50s on the daily as well, better than the oversold 70s we were in earlier.

I wasn't really seeing a $3800 price point in a short-mid term period, as I was expecting a bit more upside to probably $6000, but after the new Tether news, $3800 has been definitely increasingly and increasingly possible in my opinion. I'm so conflicted on what to do right now.

Bitfinex Used Tether Reserves to Mask Missing $850 Million, Probe Finds: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/bhe6qc/bitfinex_used_tether_reserves_to_mask_missing_850/

$3,800 won’t happen in my opinion, I think we could return to mid $4,000’s but $3.800 is too low & there will be lots of buy support before we reach that kind of price.

nobody hates that ever. what people hate is seeing others stuck in a certain mindset and despite the changes in the market they refuse to accept it and still insist on going against the market which i think is pretty funny actually :D

with that said at this point the only way price can go back down is if we see some serious drama in bitcoin like closure of Bitfinex for example which is highly unlikely. in other words that is not something you see or predict on a chart!
otherwise we will stick around above $5k and you have to only see $3xxx levels in your dreams....

Everything is possible with BTC but I don't think we will go that low, otherwise new lows should be in the cards again, that's why I don't want to lose 4.2K
The 100 & 200 SMA (now around 4.5K - 4.8K) should provide decent support, some wicks lower could off course happen.

(that bloody wick on kraken messes up the chart)

https://i.imgur.com/nSABzG3.png

In my own opinion, we already hit at the bottomed price in the market in the last few months when it 3k dollars range. So if this is a correction that we experienced right now that having a small downtrend it might be the TA of OP was right. This is we think that the start of ignition in skyrocketing of bitcoin price and the resistance will continue and to become bull market. Indeed, very informative OP technical analysis.

$3800 is likely though I don't think it will be an easy feat to cut through it given that strong supports are already in place @ $4500 and $4700 at the time of this writing. Perhaps a successful retest at $5500 would prove so vital for the next few weeks to come and would be a decider if we are going to hit the upsides or not. Anyway, a great ta and a sensible one too, not just promising rainbows and unicorns.

Keep the speculations rolling in!  Many are telling the market what it should do and wish directions it should take, however one of the thing that is very sure is that the market has his own mind and when the right time comes we would know who is right and who is not right.

Well, this is possible and so is price breaking $6k barrier. Right now, we will see if $5k really has a strong support. If it shows, then that $3800 prediction of yours is unlikely to happen. Pretty sure, lots is upset on how they see the price falling a bit and testing $5k. Especially, many thoughts bull run has started already.

I dont believe we are going to see 3k again.

Maybe we can go back to $4200, but not lower than that.

This dump is awesome!

I followed your last topic, I liked the advice you gave. And you were right in your conclusions. But I believe the price will come in a resistance of 4.8k and will rise again. And one of the reasons is that the feeling was very optimistic. With this fall and the confusion of Bitfinex the feeling has changed. A lot of people start to talk again about the 3k zone. And that's great, it's in those moments that profit opportunities appear.

$3,800 could happen quickly, the same it went from $3,800 to $5,000, remember it didn't take long (2 weeks). And the market doesn't look so great as people may think. I would call the current market "fragile" if I can say.

And to add a "great news" that could hit a lot the BTC value... New Allegations Against Tether, Bitfinex on Thursday https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/bitfinex-operator-accused-by-new-york-of-850-million-coverup via @technology

In my opinion, I think that we will stop dropping at around 5k.
I don't rely my thought based on charts and historical data, but when we were on 5k we started moving upwards with no any exact reason. I still haven't understand why we started soaring, so I believe that now we are to reach the level were we started.

4200$ - 3800$ = 400$ in crypto that is nothing, we may not close below 4.2k but chances are if we go that low a wick through the upper 3k area is very possible, having said that, one shouldn't care much about exact numbers, just watch for potential reversal signals.

Bear has been gone for a long time now, its not coming back and you better believe it. Looking at charts and saying something about the future of bitcoin has always been wrong because charts can show you whatever you want to show according to the indicators you use. I can show you two charts right now that will tell you that either its going up or going down and each will look real.

Nonetheless, the reality is what changes bitcoin prices is the movements of the people not the charts, people do not react according to charts they react according to trends and if prices goes up a bit then it goes up a lot more afterwards which happens when going down as well. That is why I think since we are on a bull run right now its going to go down anymore, not now at least and now that low, it will continue going up for a little more and then when it goes down it will definitely happen way after and drop only maybe to these prices not any lower.

If we'll see high 3k - low 4k again, how long do you think it will last? A lot of people are waiting for a big bull run around next halvening, which will be in a year, would this mean that there's only very little time left for the bear market? Or it can still last throughout the current year in the worst case?

Just like how the bulls have never left the market, the bears similarly haven't either. The thing with charts is that you can make it look as bearish or bullish as you want, and technically speaking, the $5600 high that we reached a few days ago could also be a lower high with a wider time frame chart.

Uh, the trend is your friend, that matters not only in crypto, but basically every other market. Not sure how you can be wrong all the time if you follow that. If you're referring to people such as Tom Lee being always wrong, then sure, but he's a nutter who doesn't know what matters here. He sticks to the metrics that held value during the bull run, but are worthless right now.

Bots move the market. They trade based on what the charts tell them. Bots trigger green/red candles, people then follow by panic selling or fomo buying.

There is a famous saying that I like;

Show me the charts and I'll tell you the news.

-Bernard Baruch.

A few months ago, don't buy bitcoin at $3800 we all going to under $3000. But the reality, the market makes a good rebounce and all short trader getting rekt must buying on a FOMO. Sometimes chart with the reality it's really different, to be honest, i still on positive minds. These down just because BITFINEX problem and market react into that news.

Moon guys do really hate these kind of low price predictions which it do give out bad mood for them.  ;D

Btc price didn't able to succeed to break out that resistance of $5600 and instead it did bumped down but its still not an assurance that it would head go back to $3500 basing on technicals.
A long way to go down and I believe that theres already a strong buy support on $4500-4800 atm.

For the fact that we saw a dip in the price of bitcoin doesn't mean that bitcoin will get back to $3800, I don't think we might see bitcoin within the $3000 range anymore, bitcoin has already built a resistance around $4000 and we aren't going to go below that, but what I know won't happen so quick is the bull run in price we are supposed to see this year, but I am definitely sure we are going to see it in this year.

Do you remember when the price was $3400? What was the opinion of most people? most people said that the price would fall to $2,500 and then fall to $1000. and other people said it was the end of bitcoin. The price does not fall below to $3000. but the price increased to the point of having increased without any good news like as usual and this should serve as a great lesson for us all, in this market the chances of some prediction coming true is very small

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I prefer to wait the next few days to see how the price will behave, but I highly doubt that it will fall to $3800

After every rally there will be a period of time where prices regresses to around the prices pre-rally, and consolidates there. We've seen this countless times, especially when it comes to the early stages of a bull market.

I see a lot of people panicking already which just makes absolutely no sense to me. It's almost like just because of around a month of bullishness they forget that these types of gains are unsustainable in the long run, and adjustments short term are imminent.

I think that there is a high likelihood the $5k support will get tested, and potentially be breached. I don't think that it'll go anything below $4k at this point because support there has been proven previously to be quite strong. Though, the bolded part should be taken as advice. Average out your buys when you see a dip, because at the end of the day, the long run outlook is bullish.

This one. It's barely what 24 hours since the news came out. $5200 seems to be a strong support so I doubt that the price will go below $5000 now. Just momentarily lapses for traders to panic, or they're just simply booking their profits. And I do think that this news won't deter investors, the market is in the bullish zone for two months now without any good news so it will continue to grow and not touch $3800, IHMO.

No i don't think the price will go to 3800$, i also think will not go under 4500$ even if more and more coins will be selled, as i read that drop maybe was caused by Bitfinex and Tether problem.

please do , i want to see a single piece of technical explanation that supports your claims.



no it was caused by the chart > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50740023#msg50740023

i started shorting before the news were out, probably everyone who knows how to trade was shorting bitcoin, the news only add a bit to it, but if it's not in the charts then the news can't do it alone, believe it or not is your problem  ::)

Currently market isn't showing some signs that it could dropp to 3800$ or lower. But again, if that happened I wouldn't be surprised. Such price fluctuations are quite often and usual I would say but maybe some precise technical analysis could tell us more.

I dont know how people still say the word never with price predictions.  Nothing is impossible in crypto.  To think resistance levels means a whole lot is naive as well.  One crazy event happens and all resistence will be pulled.

$3800 is indeed in the realm of possibilities. To be honest, I am also waiting for that price point before I buy some serious stacks. It is not a certain thing but I'd say the possibilites for it to happen is higher than %50. Maybe not exactly $3800 but $3920 or $4100 for example.

I would start filling up my bags as soon as it falls below $4500.

$3800 is still high than the price last few years ago. But now it is not good see because we are expecting bull run so for me too that amount price of the bitcoin not happen . Other maybe believe but we are believers too and we think bitcoin goes up and not goes down this year.

If there is a sudden news that could trigger a FOMO then we will be seeing that $3800 again and we will be back at the bearish market then. The market is always acting this way it's very unpredictable and the news is always triggering something even though it is just a rumor. People nowadays should do their own research to avoid FOMO and FUD.

Before the pump we are stable on $3k level so if there’ a true bearish trend again then we can expect the worst price that we should also be ready. We can’t just think for continue pump,i’ve learned before that if we pumped high, we will also dumped. FOMO is not good on any level, if $3k level was hit again continue to buy its another golden opportunity for us to invest with huge volume.

It looks like they did it in the same way they recovered from the hack a few years ago. They issued Bitfinex equity to Tether and used that to cover the difference. It feels a lot slimier this time now that they did it privately behind closed doors with no transparency.

Interestingly, the effect of this sort of FUD on price can be the reverse of what's expected. Bitfinex and Tether are firmly entrenched in the exchange ecosystem and represent a lot of value. So a flight into crypto from USDT and Bitfinex fiat can drive prices up rather than down.

We’re going green again today so if this go straight basically what OP said might not happen

I also believe that we already hit the bottom at $3k so we dont have another one for now,and what we have is bullish.
But if this will going to happen then my last option is to buy again to add another profit in bull

Even if the market head back to $3800, it may really not take more than same 2 weeks for it to rise back, because FOMO will definitely play out, especially the people that have always wanted the price back to $3800 for them to buy and it seems we have many people interested in this value.

Everyone will tend to want to invest at that value and enough money will be pumped into the marketcap of Bitcoin that might make it grow higher than the current marketcap, if FOMO then starts, I really don’t see anything stopping it, which might make us witness the value of $10k before September.

I don't think its the MA which pushed the price down, I just think that the $5800-$6000 area or more specifically the $5750-$6000 area is where everybody and their grand mother would short Bitcoin because its the classical TA of strong support becomes strong resistance so the whales decided to come close, $5650 and sold while everybody else missed the opportunity.

So far who knows, we might still test the $5800 area but with the tether fud and price ranging, there is a chance we might need to head lower before we head higher.

It could take months... Bitcoin isn't able to recover at the same level it was 2-3 years back. Especially with the Bitfinex/Tether news it will create big damage to Bitcoin for a long time, believe it. We will have to wait maybe 2 years before people consider investing in Bitcoin again. Not even talking about how media will bash bitcoin.

Your analysis is okay, but your TA might end up creating the dump we do not hope for, because you are indirectly warning everyone, both new ones and existing ones to stay clear of investing now, if they stay clear of investing, that is exactly what will cause the price to further dump.

You have only backed your claim up with technical analysis, where did you put your fundamental analysis, because to me, I have not seen or heard of the fundamental that could lead to the drop in price of BTC other than this negative news yours. Well, thank you, we will be careful with our investments henceforth.

Fundamentally, everything looks great. LN is getting upgrades constantly, the adoption is growing, the halving is near.

BAKKT is a bit late but I believe that's because they still couldn't fill their bags with enough cheap coins. ETF and BAKKT will arrive before the next boom so they can dump at the top just like the rest of us.

I mean who wouldn't want to dump at the top right? If you say "Me" you are a moron. These big institutions are playing the same game as you. (Buy low, sell high)

There are some good news, and some late good news. In this picture, the only bad news is bitfinex and tether. If finex goes down and you get caught while you have any coins/FIAT on any exchange, you are at risk.

You are still at risk if you own your private keys but the effect of finex will be limited on you. $2k/btc vs $0/btc

Overall, it looks great for the long term. In a few months we can try $4.5k and maybe below but it'll only be short term opportunity to buy more cheap coins. If tether goes down and btc hits $2k? Again, another short term spike.

Just don't play with many coins on exchanges and you'll end up being fine in a year or two.

i agree the market is still in bearish, but for daily trader like me this is the best opportunities to do some pimpong trade. crypto still legit even if the price bellow 1000$.

you can't just draw some random lines on the charts and then say it is an "analysis" telling you a certain price is going to happen with such confidence that you have right now!

the fact is, even the charts are showing clearly that we are on the rise and every other technical and fundamental analysis is also showing a rise. so your conclusion is the weirdest thing in this board at this moment.
the only possible way for price to drop is if something really negative and huge happens to bitcoin and that is not something you can see on the charts because it is categorized under the "unexpected" things in the market. so again your topic doesn't make any sense at all.

You know, I find it strange too that we have to be ultra on one side or other. It's like, I clearly see myself as a bull, long-term, the unexpected ATH in 2017/18 didn't change that, and the (fully expected, by the way) correction since then has been all but possible scenarios on the way to what we believe is the eventual end point (Bitcoin becoming recognised, used and a benchmark for what tomorrow's money is all about, and with a nice value attached to it too!).

So I'm inclined to believe you're right, and I still even can't ignore the volumes at which every new 2019 high has happened hasn't been at all something to be inspired by. I wouldn't be surprised if your monthly scenario happens. Why would I be? Why should any bull be? It's all how it's supposed to play out =)

Market is on a bullish trend and we have seen how it has rose form lows of 3500$ to 5400$ and is getting a bit stable in this price zone. So bearish trend does not seems to come in this spot at present and also we can see we have many buyers entering at this zone as well.

Every person has a different definition of bear and bull because there is no official price point for the bear and bulls  . for you maybe the current price of bitcoin is already a bull but for me no i wouldnt agree that it was a bull   .

 for me i think the increase that we saw is only a small recovery   .

 for me the real bull is when bitcoin touches to 10k and above    but bears arent also over  .  we can still experience a bear after a price recovery and we can also experience a recovery or a bull after the bear   .

We have that trend right now and the situation seems to favor those who able to bought while the bear really bring down the price, enjoying how
the potential that this industry will bring, different opinions will be taken for granted as having your own analysis will help you to decide whether
to what position to go and how it will bring good outcome to your money.

You will be wrong this time.  ;D
BTC ain't touching below $4,000 anymore..

We are going to break major resistance and soon we will leave the $5,000 for a new high in the month to come.

It is better we don’t raise people’s hope because this value being speculated is really going to get so much investors, so it is not a bad news that Bitcoin falls to $3800, this value will open door for the market of bull run because it will be a very good way for more investors to buy this price in large amount, I am sure people that are even already with coins will still buy more of it.

Large institutions are the ones that will invest the most at this value and this is what we really need during this time, because massive investments by these large institutions will cause a very big spike in the price of Bitcoin marketcap and the general market cap of altcoins too.

It had been dumped.
It had been slowed down for the value to increase.

We should be seeing the same when it comes to decreasing. That should be the right market and not something where it jumps up and down with large amount of money.
Actually I am more happy now for this slow increasing value of bitcoin.
I dont think there will be a large dump like what happened in 2015.
We are getting larger now. It is not the same number of supporters like before.

lol so you are saying that BTC can go to as low as 4,000$ but not to 3,800$ - so your problem is only that bit of 200$ drop ?  200$ up or down in BTC is NOTHING , not even 500$ , these numbers can happen in a second , they do happen all the time, so i can't sense the logic when someone says it can go to $4000 but sure not to $3800, that is just crazy !  ::)

I agree, besides Tom Lee gave good 7 reasons for a possible increase of value and even rumours that Disney is ready to spend billions of $. Big companies are ready to pour in millions of dollar to get involved in crypto

It is funny actually. But maybe people in here not want BTC price down again so they make limit where bitcoin price bottom. Actually $200 up and down wouldn't really affect on graph on bitcoin price because it is only a little percent.  ;D

Yes daily trader loves the volatility, they make money on this especially if they are able to ride with it. The market might not be good in terms of the price right now but I think, we will not fall below $4k again. Don't spread the FUD, let's keep on thinking positive and bitcoin will go up. The incoming dump is not that much, I expect a more pump this month of May.

Price going down again might be bad for the growth of this year, but we can still trust that bitcoin will rise again.
I would buy if it will dump again, bitcoin fundamental is good, so it will not bother me if it will dump anymore.
The history will repeat itself, every time it dump, it will always bounce back hard and we will certainly enjoy the price when it bounce back.

Honestly i don't see anything reliable to the OP's chart image. Well i do some chartings and anything can change ma, sma and other indicators is lagging it can change its direction from point A to point B. I am looking at 4700 support which may be the drop and not that $3800 after this past month bitcoin run.

Even we don't like to hear about bear market, but who can avoid the truth? To be honest current bitcoin trend is too confusing, for me I am unable to determine which trend going to follow. There was expectation once bitcoin break $5.6K, but recent movements is not looking fine. If in case break $5K zone on down trend then we might see red market once again but not sure it would be $3.8K. Perhaps it would play around $4K zone.

Using TA's would really just like to be presumptions and yes it can change from time to time and i had experienced on how many times that Bitcoins price do broke my technical
analysis thats why i dont really bother too much on what would be the price on upcoming months to come yet i just focused myself on doing active trades.FOMO is just a normal
thing but you cant stop people on not to hold yet the price as of this moment is already gradually recovering.

When i look at these beautiful pictures and read the rationales that cryptocurrency experts are willing to provide in abundance, then a picture comes to my mind when a carrot is hung near the face of a poor donkey and manipulated with him. Sometimes it is better to be in calm and continue to keep coins without being tempted by such forecasts.

Those values are just being speculated ad not the fact about the market consider, no one can really know the direction of the market except the factors itself. When it comes to these cryptocurrency, if we are not trading with it, the best is just to continue leaving our investment until BTC is ready to go on a bull run no matter the time it takes, and even if the value decides to drop and play around the $4k zone, we should still not worry, if we have money, we can still take the opportunity to buy because no matter how long bitcoin  pays with these value in the market, one day the bull run will sure show up for us.

First bitcoin won't fall to $1000 or $3800. and Fomo actually makes prices go up. but Fomo might hurt you. if you want to profit,
don't rush into action. You will not miss anything if you are good at doing analysis first mate

$1000 is highly unlikely, but $3800 isn't that unrealistic. We could reach $3800 and still have a higher low, and it might even be quite healthy for the market to plunge from where it is right now.

Fomo by definition is not really a good thing. It means that you either waited too long because you're too conservative, or you miscalculated the trend entirely and discard everything you initially valued just to be on board.

That being said, patience is the most important aspect of trading and investing in general. Even if you missed out initially, if the trend is up, you can still ride it up for a longer period of time and still make decent profits.

Finex/Tether news will shake things up again and again for the next year or so, for better or worse. It just breaks any TA and can completely reverse sentiment in a blink of an eye. And let's not forget the many millions of dollars and boatload of BTC that Faketoshi and Roger still have to mess things up.

If you have patience then there is no need to fall for FOMO, you can just keep hold of the bitcoin and altcoins that you find profitable doing your own research. As the days are getting close to the golden cross there is chances for price crash. This assures with a price recovery all of the sudden even if it falls.

Increases and decreases are never the same for twice, there is way to many things that change the course of price movements, its not as easy to go back to 3800 as it was to go high to 5+ thousand dollars because it wasn't easy to go up to 5+ thousand dollars. We have tried to break the 4200 resistance for months before we were capable of actually going up but people saw the increase so they think it will be "easy" to go back since we increased so "quickly".

Well, if we are going to go back to 3800 than it will have to go the route we went when going up and will try to go back down many times before it can go to 3800 and all these buyers will have to let go and not buy in order for it to go back down that much. I do not see that happening any time soon. I am not saying it won't happen but I am saying it won't happen quickly.

Remaining calm and trade base on the analysis you have done is what separates amateur from professionals traders.  I think we have see many analysis like this in the past and many of them did not come to pass and we just need to wait for time to tell.  If you sell because of another person analysis you may blame yourself in future.

From the second quarter of the year the market seems much more progressive than the first quarter of the year. The third quarter of the year will provide with the best profit in the market with the price reaching around $8000, and by now there is no need of panic about the mentioned $3800. No need to fear about missing out the low buy or high selling, just analyze and make your own decision.

Even after Tether and Bitfinex issue still the market is moving upwards it means we are in right direct to touch 6000 dollars soon

True, it says that the market is not in bullish period, if we are in the bear, more dumps will be witness but this time, it only dump a little and recovered.

I had been wondering the same thing for the last few days, I didn't expect Bitcoin to behave as nothing had happened. And even today and yesterday it is on the rise, crossing the $5,500. Isn't that weird? Maybe because the Tether effect still needs a few more days or weeks for it to explode? Anyway, something's going to happen.

It is moving but look at the difference in price between bitfinex and other exchanges. It's 300 dollars apart like it was artificially pumped. Maybe it's tether again?
It's strange that with all that's going on around it they still manage to keep the price from falling. If I had USDt I'd be moving to another stablecoin without hesitation but there's not much of it going on. Does that mean that most of the USDt is fake so there's nobody to unload bags?

We are overdue for a correction that's for sure.

Correction going up, yes.
Bitcoin and  altcoins were oversold during the last bear market which is last year, we are just bouncing back.
Last bear long period, price drop slowly but it's consistent, now the least we will see is the opposite but there's a possibility of some big explosion coming up.

Market has never failed to amaze us, we can only see this if we hold until now and waited for this moment.

If we still have the patience and trust that something big will come to this investment, the market corrections might be on its way to bounce back,
uptrend run and no more downfall for a while, it can attract more potential new players if they will be encourage of good positive movements, as
they already been doubtful since the last big drop.

Long term holders will still be optimistic and keep observing each market trend ans still believe for positive outcome.

Bear market is over guys , cant you see bitcoin is going up little by little as the day passes. Im pretty sure that bitcoin heading to 10,000$  by july.

It's different than normal FUD. There is additional buying pressure on Bitfinex because people are worried about insolvency, regulators. So they're driving the price up. Bitfinex price is nearly $5,900 now! It's slowly but surely dragging up the rest of the market with it. This is creating a feedback loop where shorts are getting squeezed and bears are getting pressured to buy back.

I have also heard from some great analyst of the possibility of bitcoin falling back a little to $3800 before going on bull run, but I have tried to do my analysis too and I have not really see anything factor that could lead to dump of bitcoin for it to reach that value.

We should not just be speculating, we need to think it through too, if they say that the price will dump again to that low, are they expecting people to react to news or factor that will trigger that ? I don’t think the price will be easy to drop again, because a lot of holders are keeping bitcoin value they have now in their portfolio for the future increase.

Oh today the price went up a lot, it rose to  $5840, we were very close to reaching the  $6000

https://i.imgur.com/MwJYKFq.png

if we continue with this gradual increase, we will have great chances to end the year with the price of $8000


speaking in Tom Lee, Fundstrat Analyst Advises told another guy to speak

Buy Bitcoin Before Next Bull Run in H2 2019, Fundstrat Analyst Advises (https://cointelegraph.com/news/buy-bitcoin-before-next-bull-run-in-h2-2019-fundstrat-analyst-advises)

is Tom Lee trying to appear less in the press to preserve his image?

He may just give limited statement because he made lots of bad prediction in the past, but he is a bullish so probably if bitcoin will continues its bullish trend, we might heard more words from him again. I cannot remember anymore what's his call for this year's price.

If we break it and I don't think that we will without a correction and touching the new bottom somewhere at 5500. We passed this levert too fast and will come back to confirm it as support.


What image? Of the person with the most missed predictions in crypto? Tom Lee is a guy you listen to when you want to lose money.

I stand by this too mate, though I don’t expect bitcoin to touch that value that soon, we might be looking at $8000 by the end of July because I dint expect the value to continue this way without breaking, there will still be retrace as usually and it might go down to $5600 shortly and then stay on it for a while before going further to touch the $6000 by month ending.

If this is the part bitcoin wants to be tracing, then what will be the target by JULY would be $8000, which is just speculation though, I don’t know the fundamental factor that may come in within the short period to change things.

Most cryptocurrency users and believers needs to start adjusting their mind and getting use to the pattern bitcoin is trying to follow through to its ATH this time, which will be the heftiest one that will really give more investors and government the confidence they desire to see in bitcoin first before attempting to join the crypto space.

The bear market already became suppressed the moment we crossed over to $4000 and since then, bitcoin has been slowly appreciating making the market very healthy as we are not seeing a major dump that could damage the market again, and I think this is how will continue to slowly appreciate till it touches another ATH and we may never see any speedy BULL.

Thought i'd drop and update here:

as you can tell, we did close above the 50SMA on the weekly , however ! ! i am still leaning towards a re-test towards 3.8k to 4.4k or so

This scenario will of course be invalidated if we close above 6k , or 62xx$ on the BLX chart, the big question is , what are the chances of breaking above 6k vs going down?

i would say 30% to break up and moon, 70%  drop . The way i am playing the charts now is simply adding more shorts , not exactly aiming for 3.8k  , my aim is 4.2k-4.4k but that all of that can change depending on how things evolve.

if we close above 6.2k , i will of course close my shorts and suffer some loss, and enter long positions tho i don't see that happening, those who are in shorts positions, be prepared for some wicks , stay calm and pay attention to candle closing and not just a wick.

 

this was a very good educational experience for everyone who "panicked" here thinking a drop is coming. it can teach you not to go against the market trend when it is obviously in an upward movement just because you saw SMAs looking a certain way because they don't indicate anything specially when all the rest of the signs (the market trend, the sentiment, the volume,...) pointing to a rise instead.

You should notice by now that TA doesn’t really work that much in predicting the long term value of Bitcoin, this is exactly the same way someone who I believe could read TA better than me, practically told me that it will be impossible for bitcoin to break the barrier of $6000 without first having a retest of $4800, and advised that I never buy more for now, but to sell while waiting for the retest, look at the value now.

I am glad I dint follow his suggestion and decided to go with mine. We broke the barrier of and I see that this may be how we will continue to increase until probably there will be a FUD news that will pull it backward.

If you understand from his original and update post. His readings arent for long-term, the speculation presented are for short-term.

being updated on what is happening in crypto is the best indicator for price, not drawing lines and circles on a chart.

Hmm, different speculation here and there, I though technical analysis is meant to give same report generally if it is well read, how come yours is giving you 11k while others are getting $8k in 3 months’ time, anyway, he market is really unpredictable and speculative tools is not that very much active for a long term prediction, we need to rely more on what we see on news, because those factors we see on news are the ones that will really determine the movement of bitcoin, either its heading for the BULL or heading for a retrace, but whatever the case maybe, and no matter the pull back, the future is what I know is very bright.

$3800 was a long back FOMO, once after price reaching $4200 it suddenly dropped low to $3800. Further when the price grew reaching $4200 the FOMO was felt among the users. By the same time there were predictions around the market from experts stating that the price will fall low to $3000 or will cross $4500. To the good the market crossed $4500 and the same has been carried forward with the ongoing bull market.

Seems like you're wrong, you can't predict the markets...

Nothing TA wise pointed to a movement to the upside, everything was screaming down, and it just did not work this time, it's normal it happens quite often because TA is not a crystal ball.

using the term "panicked"  makes me think that you are not a day trader, which is why you shouldn't be reading any TAs because they will be of no use to you, anybody who knows about TA would have shorted the 5.8k region because the probability of falling from a resistance is more likely than not , but whatever the plan failed  and that happens every day, and we did close above 6k which means that shorting at that point is useless, and entering long position is the proper move.

this is what i mentioned

---

Update

i took a loss on my all of last shorts with the an average loss of about -7.4% , but I entered long and i am already at about 6% profit , I did close all my long positions too at current price 6860 , not going to fight the 6800 level , in fact i am thinking of opening a few short position for a possible correction to the lower 6k area or lower.

The key here is not to get married to one side of the trend and admit that you were wrong when  it happens and act based on the current situation in front of you


I am also going to be focusing more on ALTs , when BTC domince gets this high , there are always better chances with ALTs than with BTC

I will of course keep this chart updated

I am a bitcoin believer and I have substantial investment in bitcoin till date but I still believe that there will be a very big retrace soon back to $4000 or $4500 possibly, you are right that the market is obviously switching to an uptrend, but presently, the market has been overbought, so there is a possibility for a big retrace before we fully embark on the uptrend that will lead us to the bull run.

So for a long term holder, they should keep continue holding but for short term investment, this is not the right time for them to buy if I may say, so they should be patient. Anyway, I know time will tell and we will know who is good at it.

This time i am thinking that most people have been caught in the bait in short FOMO joe's are in the market. I am fully confident that in this parabolic pump a surprise dump or retrace like everyone is not expecting. I only disagree right now on
$4500 or below because i am seeing that if we correct on this price range we may only retest $5000-$5500 area which is built with a psychological strong support and conitnue to move up again before the next big dump.

Anyone keeping an eye on the NVT indicator? It's at 188, which is the most overbought reading... ever. Even higher than December 2017. How much more gas can possibly be in the tank for this rally??

The chances that bitcoins will go down with 50% to $3800 seems very small now, the bitcoin market is much bigger than in 2015, I think bitcoins will go sideways for some times and then try to break bullish, testing $9k or $10k, with one year to next halving we are now in a period where people buy more bitcoins than they want to sell.

Bitcoin had not conform with most TA speculated in this thread its retracement or pullback to $3800 is not feasible now many investors had come on board thus triggering the present bullish runs, the price had retraced and hits or met a strong support at $6600 to $7000 then continues to be bullish again I agreed with you that rather for the price to fall down to $3800 it will ranges or moves sideways for some time before  journey upward again.

Never heard of the NVT indicator, explain that one.   I thought we had moved quite steadily upto recently.   It might backtrack but probably not further then 6000 now I guess.

What I'm waiting for to observe weakness is a break of a simple blue line underlining the recent action.   It has broken below on the last sell but did not close there to hold a negative trend.   A test of 6600 seems fair enough and then draw further conclusions if that should happen

https://i.imgur.com/76UYeEr.png

You weren't wrong with your analysis entirely even if the trade was a loss. I am pretty sure everybody assumed $5800-$6000 would be the top since its basically strong resistance and everybody either sold, hedged, or entered into a short position.

The fact that it engulfed that area very fast was bullish and hinted that we might see more upside which was true since we quickly went into the $8300 shortly after.

Right now the bull trend is too strong to fight, you need to wait for more confirmations before shorting.

The more and more I read about TAs and chart predictions, the more I am convinced that BTC doesn't work exactly that way...
Market is too small? too immature? market makers are too few and loaded with too much BTC? well, don't know... but the fact is that BTC often does a lot of stuff that nobody can explain...

I thought I am the only one feeling that bitcoin do not follow all this technical analysis predictions but has it own mind and always start to move at it own will. I am happy that bitcoin is a bit better than the predictions of the op and bitcoin is even now more bullish than then.