Don't Fomo , 3800$ incoming ?

[mikeywith]

I know most of you guys hate it when someone points out a bearish set-up , we all want lambos but facts must be stated.


last month i started this topic > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50358025#msg50358025


i mentioned that if we were to close above 20SMA on the weekly, we will head to the 50SMA which was at about 5600$ , that was when btc price was struggling to break 4000$, surprisingly , it did exactly that, despite the low probability.


This suggests that we can very likely continue with the same structure, let's look at the chart. 




looking back at july 2015 , we can see that right after testing the 50SMA we head straight back to the 200SMA , which now sits at around 3600$ , but with a bit of room till the price gets there, it should be at around 3700$-3800$ , also notice that we can have a wick like we did back then, that wick can go to as low as 3300$.


this , plus being at probably the strongest resistance area that we had since day 1 in bitcoin , breaking that from the first trial is not very possible, a good run of correction to the down side is very high likely going to happen.


so don't fomo, don't panic, if the 2015 chart is to repeat itself, in about a month from now, we should mark the our bull-market-starting-point.



*This set up gets invalidated if we close above 6k
*a correction is very likely, but no guarantee we going that low , so buying at possible support areas is the best practice.

This is not a financial advice




let's see what you guys got to say about this, hopping to see some counter-TA and not some crystal ball or my girlfriend thinks so b.s  .

also, moon guys, don't hate , i am trying just trying to warn you about a very possible scenario.


Good luck

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[wheelz1200]

We very well may be in for a dip.  Remember we were recently at $3k so for those buyers any sniff of a downturn and you might have some large profit taking.  I'm not all in on us being out of the bear.  Let's see

[shield132]

What do we have to hate there, you are thinking very logically but to my mind bitcoin's price is a little bit far from logic. I highly doubt there will be so big fall because: At first we got out from 3K price to 5K which is a great achievement and to my mind it reduced negative thoughts in people, 2nd - today's fall doesn't mean much and I think this time a lot more people will invest in btc rather than those who missed it recently.

[daarul50]

Correction is really needed for bitcoin price movements so that the increase is healthier. All possibilities of various predictions are still very open to occur someday. Let's see what will happen. However, I hope the scenario you show doesn't happen and the price of bitcoin can reach $ 6k in the next few weeks.

[jazmuzika217]

Good technical analysis but before this happen we will see first the $4000 to $4500 level then if this break we will going to $3000 level logically its hard to predict the price flow of bitcoin right now dont Fomo and trust your own analysis we already in wave 3 correction trend after a huge pump up happen in the last few weeks.

[harizen]

Correction is really needed for bitcoin price movements so that the increase is healthier. All possibilities of various predictions are still very open to occur someday. Let's see what will happen. However, I hope the scenario you show doesn't happen and the price of bitcoin can reach $ 6k in the next few weeks.

I considered the year long bearish trend as period of establishing what's the real "correction". Therefore, I will closed the book already on that particular concern, at leat for now. That year long is enough already to determined what price can be considered as strong point since it was now break.

Bear movement is always possible to happen but with the slow rise starting from around dipping point to what it's now, I doubt a big bearish trend will happen again. The foundation were properly built per certain level. Going back to $3,800 will not be a product of a bearish trend since we are just there just few periods ago. It just means that the recent hype happened is not that strong.

[Duzter]

The 50 days moving average and the 200 days moving average resembles same as the year 2015. By this there is no need of a panic, as the market will be tending to be bearish till it grasp and move completely on the bull trend. This could happen within few months time, in 2015 the trend initiation took place by the month of July. This time it might begin earlier than predicted.

[leowonderful]

Wouldn't say $3800 is coming just yet, but we could be in for some more downwards action considering here still seems to be significant selling pressure on BTC at the moment, and people are still panic selling seeing the news about Tether. $6k could very well still be in the books for the next several weeks, and this correction we just had was bound to happen eventually anyways. RSI's dropped off to the 50s on the daily as well, better than the oversold 70s we were in earlier.

[mk4]

I wasn't really seeing a $3800 price point in a short-mid term period, as I was expecting a bit more upside to probably $6000, but after the new Tether news, $3800 has been definitely increasingly and increasingly possible in my opinion. I'm so conflicted on what to do right now.

Bitfinex Used Tether Reserves to Mask Missing $850 Million, Probe Finds: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/bhe6qc/bitfinex_used_tether_reserves_to_mask_missing_850/

[DeathAngel]

$3,800 won’t happen in my opinion, I think we could return to mid $4,000’s but $3.800 is too low & there will be lots of buy support before we reach that kind of price.

[talkbitcoin]

I know most of you guys hate it when someone points out a bearish set-up , we all want lambos but facts must be stated.

nobody hates that ever. what people hate is seeing others stuck in a certain mindset and despite the changes in the market they refuse to accept it and still insist on going against the market which i think is pretty funny actually

with that said at this point the only way price can go back down is if we see some serious drama in bitcoin like closure of Bitfinex for example which is highly unlikely. in other words that is not something you see or predict on a chart!
otherwise we will stick around above $5k and you have to only see $3xxx levels in your dreams....

[greensheep]

Everything is possible with BTC but I don't think we will go that low, otherwise new lows should be in the cards again, that's why I don't want to lose 4.2K
The 100 & 200 SMA (now around 4.5K - 4.8K) should provide decent support, some wicks lower could off course happen.

(that bloody wick on kraken messes up the chart)

[Capt00]

In my own opinion, we already hit at the bottomed price in the market in the last few months when it 3k dollars range. So if this is a correction that we experienced right now that having a small downtrend it might be the TA of OP was right. This is we think that the start of ignition in skyrocketing of bitcoin price and the resistance will continue and to become bull market. Indeed, very informative OP technical analysis.

[dothebeats]

$3800 is likely though I don't think it will be an easy feat to cut through it given that strong supports are already in place @ $4500 and $4700 at the time of this writing. Perhaps a successful retest at $5500 would prove so vital for the next few weeks to come and would be a decider if we are going to hit the upsides or not. Anyway, a great ta and a sensible one too, not just promising rainbows and unicorns.

[omonuyak]

Keep the speculations rolling in!  Many are telling the market what it should do and wish directions it should take, however one of the thing that is very sure is that the market has his own mind and when the right time comes we would know who is right and who is not right.

[Shinpako09]

Well, this is possible and so is price breaking $6k barrier. Right now, we will see if $5k really has a strong support. If it shows, then that $3800 prediction of yours is unlikely to happen. Pretty sure, lots is upset on how they see the price falling a bit and testing $5k. Especially, many thoughts bull run has started already.

[fabiorem]

I dont believe we are going to see 3k again.

Maybe we can go back to $4200, but not lower than that.

[vit05]

This dump is awesome!

I followed your last topic, I liked the advice you gave. And you were right in your conclusions. But I believe the price will come in a resistance of 4.8k and will rise again. And one of the reasons is that the feeling was very optimistic. With this fall and the confusion of Bitfinex the feeling has changed. A lot of people start to talk again about the 3k zone. And that's great, it's in those moments that profit opportunities appear.

[LeGaulois]

$3,800 won’t happen in my opinion, I think we could return to mid $4,000’s but $3.800 is too low & there will be lots of buy support before we reach that kind of price.

$3,800 could happen quickly, the same it went from $3,800 to $5,000, remember it didn't take long (2 weeks). And the market doesn't look so great as people may think. I would call the current market "fragile" if I can say.

And to add a "great news" that could hit a lot the BTC value... New Allegations Against Tether, Bitfinex on Thursday https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/bitfinex-operator-accused-by-new-york-of-850-million-coverup via @technology

[Naida_BR]

In my opinion, I think that we will stop dropping at around 5k.
I don't rely my thought based on charts and historical data, but when we were on 5k we started moving upwards with no any exact reason. I still haven't understand why we started soaring, so I believe that now we are to reach the level were we started.