Bitcoin Forum

Given:

1) The current cycle pattern is amazingly similar to the previous two.
2) Everybody is aware of it and prepared to act accordingly. I.e.
          a) Go all in now.
          b) Sell in July, just before the peak.
          c) Buy at 40% of it.
          d) Sell again in a month, at the re-bounce.
          e) Buy again in 87 days after the peak, at the bottom.
3) Whales are aware of these plans and will somehow use this knowledge to transfer our coins to their pockets.

Fair enough, that's the rules of the game and it's our decision to play it. But my question is:

1) What specifically would a whale do? How exactly could he trick us?
2) Is there a way not to fall a victim to it? (apart from just holding for the whole cycle)

It does look very similar to previous cycles, but it feels too easy to be honest i'm not sure yet what to fully make of it.

Depends on the nature of the whale. Are we talking a Bitcoin to 100K believing whale or a 'I just stole me 100K BTC' (but I really want USD) whale?

Are we talking about a whale that might use his buying power to shake weak hands out the market so that he can own all their coins at a discount or are we talking about a whale who will sit and let the price rise and huge support build up so he can maximise his BTC/USD extraction from the market?

I think whales are probably going to jump in very soon. I don't think they care so much about tricking anybody so much as getting in before other whales... the only thing I can imagine happening is a whale using his power to create a ton of bad press right before going all in.... so, maybe this already happened.

News like .. ???

Macro Energy soars 42% after Bitcoin buy March 14, 2014 09:27 AM
Shares in Macro Energy Limited (ASX:MEJ) soared yesterday after the resources-focused investment fund revealed a proposed restructure, new name and completion of a $9.1 million capital raising.

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network76198.html

Whales are hoping that new whales will come to buy the coins. They are hoping that the incident 10 days ago wasn't an isolated case. If nothing happens soon, then everyone will start to freak out and the price will drop.

http://s28.postimg.org/two8prdfh/insta.gif

The only people who think this are people whose memory doesn't span more than a few months.

Exactly my feelings. There must be a catch somewhere. But where???

Let's talk the long-term whale, "To the Moon"-believer that wants to maximize his BTC stock and doesn't care about current BTC rate and reputation. Somebody who would DDOS and discredit BTC, if it helps him to shake some weak hands.

So what would he do? He would somehow have to trick us into selling low and buying high. Would he try to confuse bots? Or to scare humans? Would he be just doing fore-running or just the opposite - sending us false-start signals?

No, more like "China bans bitcoin". Maybe it's what happened last December? Some high-rank Chinese official have decided to convert his ill-gained millions to bitcoins. So "ban" > panic > cheap coins.

What, you mean the panic buying from the 1 day when it looked as though Ukraine's economy might go under?

Are you still bearish? I mean, you were definitely bearish when it made sense to be bearish... but c'mon, it's time to be bullish now :)

I am neither bearish nor bullish at this point in time....just a bit bored and jaded with Bitcoin at the moment.

I have however just bought 10 BTC at $640, so I guess I think there is more upside potential in the coming weeks than downside, although not totally convinced by Bitcoin at the time being. Probably a lot of grinding and trending to be done from here, with likely lower lows than $600 range to come before bear phase can be truly shaken off.

Seems sensible!

How about this: each growth spurt the total number of participants increases by a factor of 3 - 6X.  Perhaps the market dynamics are dominated by the people who are new to bitcoin (who haven't yet learned from the past), and so we see similar cycles repeat over and over. If this is true, eventually this pattern would become exploitable (and thus disappear), but perhaps it can occur a few more times before it does.

Volume is low and it is dropping not rising. Soon people will get tired of trading with each other with no new money coming in.

I was looking for a post like this,  a post with good educated guesses

My opinion is that if we have the start of a big bull market everyone will go crazy and buy and we should see new all time highs bc there is a lot more money in the market.
The start of the bull market could be an economic crisis or possibly very good news for Bitcoin

The question is will we test the lows before we rise, we may!

Bears, be afraid. This is a sign, a really big one.

Good luck! (to both of us hehe)

Swim?  ;D ;D ;D

LoL ... reminsds Rounders (1998)

They don't play each other, just chating/waiting for new blood  :D

Atlantic City Suckers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciWBzhmOC_o

Lol, yeah, something like that. And when new blood wouldn't come, then the players would soon start taking their chips and leave one by one :)

We don't trick anyone. We wait for you to trick yourselves. We don't usually have to wait long.

Buy low, sell high, and don't panic.

Thanks :)

I'll take either direction, let's do something soon...

The similarities are quite significant in price terms. I think this has two reasons:
1. Many traders believed in it.
2. Coincidence!

I mean the price is news-based. Think at Silk Road, China is bullish (documentaries on national tv, Baidu), China is bearish (legal issues), mt-gox etc. Mark Kepler did not just looked at his chart and revealed his problems in that way that the price will drop slowly like in June 2013 and so on.

If anybody has bad news, they will not look at the chart and wait until 5000$ are reached... Or do you think so?

I'm pretty sure not getting greedy is a good strategy. If you're sure the whales are going to kick something off, then the advice to "buy low, sell high" is fair enough, as it always is. Where people come unstuck is trying to squeeze every last cent out of the ups and downs. If you come out in the black you're doing better than most. It's when you try to second guess something that's inherently unpredictable, or buy/sell due to emotion, that things go wrong.
It's annoying to know that you could have got 20%, 50% or whatever more out of your trade. But not as annoying as being that much down.

Seems that what the whales are doing is pressing huge bid walls behind the spot price in order to try and imbue confidence and calm in the markets........for now.

What's the benefit to the whale?

Have you got any financial interests in Bitcoins? If so, what would be the benefit of a particular price action to you? How much capital would you be prepared to lay down on the line to facilitate a particular price action into being?

Now take the exact same principles and combine it with a level of wealth beyond your imagination and you might have some fitting answers.

Right now, there is a 1500 BTC defensive wall @ $630 on Bitstamp, the main exchange. I say defensive because if this purchaser really wanted that USD turned into Bitcoin, he would be chasing the spot price up the chart before 'competitors' got in. But that isn't the purpose of the wall, it is there to reassure the market and prevent a flood of selling off. And it's effectiove. I bought 10 BTC last night at $640. Had the massive Bid wall not been there, I would not have entered the market at this point. If this Bid wall is removed or is devoured, then I will fold my hand right away. Add a few hundred market participants with the same mindset as I have and acting in the same manner, and the whale gets his desired effect.

be strong, then the whale will lose :)
(we all have to be strong though  :'()

Ok, but any big sell off by the whale would send the price south again.
What I'm not quite getting my head around is why the ability to rig the market at this point wouldn't prove equally problematic when it came to cash in. The large amount of money works in your favour one way, not the other. Surely a safer strategy would simply be to sell now, let (and help) the price crash, then buy back in? (Stabilise the market at the lower price if you want to stop it dropping beyond your buy-back price.)

You are only considering one very narrow and obvious possibility in an entire ocean of possibilities. There are many whales in this market, each with their own agendas.

All we can do is look at the market bearing in mind the limited market knowledge that we have. Recently, there has been some very large Bid offers that are behaving in such a way as to support the spot price, other than to actually acquire Bitcoins. That is the only thing that is certain here and everything beyond that is guessing. Perhaps the whale is the Winklevoss twins? Perhaps they are flexing their financial muscle to calm the markets in the same as a central bank might intervene? Or perhaps it is one of the MtGox hackers, who are trying to encourage a support in the Bitcoin market in order to allow the price to reinflate a bit before they start another cashing out program. We have no ways of knowing the details, all that we do know is that some very wealthy hands, don't want Bitcoin to drop back down beneath $600 range, at least not for the time being. As long as these hands seem to be winning or are going unchallenged, obviously it is wiser to bet with them.

The entire discussion is speculative. But in that case, the benefit is that if they can hold the price at a level they're satisfied taking profits at, they slow-bleed their sells, as opposed to making big sell offs.

That would be the incentive to holding the price at that level.

Both entirely reasonable answers, thank you.

Whales are still bound to the principles of TA, unless they want to lose money. It's not like these guys are like the fed with unlimited funds.

And just like that, the 1.5K BTC bid has been taken down.....

.....will be interesting to see what happens next here......I sold my 10 BTC right away.