Bitcoin Forum

So BTC is down 30% from the last high, how far can we go ?


On the weekly chart below, i use only the 5 SMA (blue) and 20 SMA ( Orange )

 
https://i.imgur.com/uLjSTn2.png


Using the BLX chart, you can see that from 2010 all the way to 2018, every time we had a weekly close below the 5 SMA we simply drop all the way to the 20 SMA.

in the above theory there is good news and bad news.


which one do you want to read first?

I personally like the bad news first

The bad news :

 The 20 SMA is hanging around 7200$ but by the time we get there, it should be at 7500-8000 , so there is a good chance we would see number 7 again.

The good news:

The 20 SMA on the weekly is very very strong, based on previous price behavior near the 20 SMA on the weekly, more than 90% of the time this SMA was strong enough to keep price above it during bull market and below it during bear market, so it's safe to assume that we are officially in a bull market and this merely a major correction.


My plan is to slowly buy btc from current price all the to sub 7k , and start selling at around 13600$ , even though I expect the next leg up to hit `16k , but that won't be this month, highly unlikely next month either as I do expect a few weeks of consolidation near the 20 SMA.


***The importance of the 20SMA on the weekly came to my attention from a video I watched on Youtube a long time ago, and I have been watching this SMA for a long time, i would like to give credit to whoever made the video whom I sadly can't remember.
 

Hi mikeywith,

I've always enjoyed reading your TA, great stuff. I'm a bit confused though, in the beginning you said
Don't you mean 5 SMA (blue)?

people loved comparing bitcoin of 2018 (the dropping year) with bitcoin of 2014 (the same dropping year) when it was dropping from its bubble and although I don't like these comparisons I have to admit we ended up having a lot of similarities.
right now it seems to me that despite no one really doing the same comparison anymore (between 2019 the recovery year with 2015 the past recovery year) but things are starting to look the same too.
so worst case scenario of repetition of the same thing at a bigger percentage drop from the high we reached would be reaching around $8500 before bouncing back up again.

See, this is why I don't mind TA, even if I don't believe in it. Short, sweet and looking at both possible sides of the coin (but hey the coin can land right on it's middle too, no? ;)

Now if we reach the bad news, 7k BTC does not look bad to me at all. If it means that after 6 months from its 2019 we see 100% growth, that's really kind of good news. Not to mention additional time for me to accumulate.

If we reach the good news, then it's only confirming what we've been thinking since June.

Either way, let's expect 7k then!

@Pursuer yeah, all I can see on Twitter now is 80% drop comparisons from 2014,16,17 etc. That's kind of hoping for the best, though, so I'll let them hope.

I think the clear winner would be going back up, not just because SMA but also the trends in bitcoin of when people sell and what needs to happen for people to sell whereas same goes for buy as well. We have seen bitcoin dropping to just under 10k only last week and then it reached back above 12k as well, it happened before as well, so all in all it is totally expected for bitcoin to do the same thing, I am not saying it has to, I am not saying it definitely will but looking at the previous things its quite possible for bitcoin to do the same thing again because there is no reason why it shouldn't.

Of course, it could still go down a bit more before going up because the more whales accumulate and the more they have in usdt and cash it means the more ammunition they will have to attack the tops and get back to high prices.

the drop has lost its downward momentum, so apart from what it might be seen on the charts with TA i currently don't see any more drops coming with the way price pushed back up from $9k and has been resisting further drops.

so unless some new wave of FUD and panic begins in the market to create another selling momentum to break the $9000 level we may not see the "worst" but yeah lets expect $7k to not be disappointed :D

Last week I was saying to everywhere not to get excited by that increase that occurred then.
If altcoins dont gain value respective to the increase in Bitcoin price then we are going to see drops like this one more often. I am sad that altcoins are struggling once again and they keep losing value in this drop.

The ongoing market crash is an expected one. This time the price could go even lower, but more possibility for recovering of altcoins with the next growth of bitcoin. As the thread title states rather than hoping for the best it is good to hope for the worse, and when the best happens by that time what we get out of the same will be extremely big.

Im not a TA fanatic but basing just for some Moving average i cant say that we would headback on 7k price.We see some correction from 13k down to 9k which isnt that surprising and  in fact ive been accumulating as of this moment yet i have already sold out when its still on 13k price.Not bad for shorter terms.

Expecting the worst?Im already prepared for that one but buying on the bottom would always be an unending question as a trader.

interesting chart compared to the original timestamp. the chart shows price at $10.8k but the price was in the low $9000s at that time. it's like magic! :P


i'm glad so many analysts expect sub-$7500 and even down to $6k. not gonna happen IMO. bears are always too greedy. i think you are underestimating how fast the 20ma is rising, and also discounting the possibility that we take our sweet time reaching it.

Yes, it seems that the bleeding some stop today, price goes on 5 digits again but we don't know who far this recovery will go or this is just another bull trap. Well who wouldn't want to see the price goes on $7000? Another golden opportunity to stash more BTC and then just ride the wave. But I'm not seeing another pull, but for experience traders, they already have plans for any momentum shifts.

But for noobs, this will also be another test for them and see how can they stand specially seeing the price goes down from $13000-$9000. So let's see and just hope that everything will be on our favor.

It is magic, have you watched magicmike? That is what I do, i freeze the price so i can sell my btc for 10% more than the average joe  ;D.


As far as the part of me underestimating how fast the 20 sma moves you are right, but then it does not really matter given the fact that when someone plans to trade based on an MA ,exact price  shouldn't be set, one should monitor it once a week at weekly close.

The range I estimated was merely a shot in the dark based on how fast I think we moving.

Anyhow, this TA should serve as a positive one , as long as we don't close below the 20 sma it is always safer to bet long, i am personally not holding my breath waiting for sub 7k coz we might not get there, but at that range some high risk leverage positions will sure be a great idea.

Also keep in mind that a pull-back to the 20 sma must come pretty soon, more on this to come  .....

Interesting analysis, great to see something detailed on this board again!

As for something I've personally noticed, I've been looking at the 50 EMA on the daily (near $10k) and it seems that is now acting as some sort of resistance as we've touched it from below and dropped back under it. We've been above the 50 EMA for this entire run up and nothing's really come close to breaking under it until recently, though I'm not entirely sure how to interpret this besides it acting as resistance for now. I'm still remaining bullish on the whole though, as it seems bearish momentum has slowed down over the last several hours and we had a sweet bounce from $9k this morning. Could still be some more downside to this, but I took a very low leveraged long a few minutes after the bounce and I'm keeping the stop in profit for now in case we do have some more bearish momentum soon.

Took me some time to come up with the exact figures, but there we have it, as always - chart first


https://i.imgur.com/2ZOCFBU.png



I had to zoom out this much, all the way to July 2010 ! you can't really see every single detail, but that does not matter, the purpose here is to focus on one simple thing which is:

How long can btc rally last without having to go back to the 20SMA on the weekly to "recharge" ?

you can see that it varies a lot, but overall during every bull market we had starting from 2010 , every time BTC said good buy to the 20SMA had to come back and touch it, there is a total of 10 times, the current one is the 11th

the longest one we had was back in late 2012 to early 2013 , a total of 154 days where BTC had enough momentum to last that long without having to go back and test the 20 SMA while average of those 10 moves is 120 days


The red part of the 20SMA was obviously drawn by me,I tried to maintain the same curvature beside taking into account that fact that we last couple weeks have been bearish which mean the angel of the trend has to get lower thus move slower to the upside at least the next couple weeks.


Now if we were to have an average move, then by end of this month, we should test the 20 SMA at around 7800$ , if we are going to repeat the longest run ever then we should rest on the 20 SMA sometime around 2nd Sep at at 8500$.


is it possible that we make a new record , say 200 days without having to take a break at the 20SMA station? it is indeed possible , but is it very likely that we are going to do so ? not very likely i'd say.

Remember that right now the 20 SMA is at 7200$ , took us almost 100 days of almost only green candles and a total of 277% increase in price to get to this mark, now assuming we would have the same thing again (nearly impossible) but let's just assume the 20 SMA will be hanging at 14500$ when btc does another 277% , BTC will be trading at about 50k while the 20SMA is at 14k , that is not possible, it's more likely than not that we should test the 20 SMA pretty soon if this trend is intending to be healthy.


also @ figmentofmyass mentioned that I seem to be " underestimating how fast the 20ma is rising" , in fact the faster the SMA moves the bigger the gap the bigger the correction, the 20 SMA has already moved to fast and this explains why we need 35-40% correction.

TL;DR : I view critical moving averages like the 20 SMA as a debt which BTC has to pay , the sooner the debt is paid the less painful it is.

So short term, are you saying that we will see levels sub-$7k?

I don't necessarily think that is a likely scenario, given that we are in an established bull market already and that we've seen support at $9k which caused the rebound today. But if it does ever get that low then it's certainly a zone for accumulation.

I really don't understand the panic that people have shown over the past week or so, though. Like we get it, prices did go down drastically from a high of around $14k all the way to sub-$10k, but what else do you realistically expect in a bull market where markets in the short run are extremely volatile? Also, it's not like this correction is unwarranted in any way, prices have simply been growing at unsustainable rates for the past 1-2 months.

That is not exactly what i am actually trying to say, but let me rephrase the OP in simple points


1- We will very likely test the 20 SMA on the weekly pretty soon ( doesn't matter where it is by then ) for more details about this exact point please read my previous post  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5165927.msg51860543#msg51860543).


2-There is no reason to panic if we were to see sub 7k or 8k , it does not mean we were entering a bear market , if that happens, think of it as the PERFECT correction which will give us enough power to break 14k.


3-If price closes below the 20SMA it is a bad sign, the trend will officially be looked at as a down trend, and rally to 14k was merely a correction of a bigger and more brutal down trend  ( very low portability scenario, as the tittle says : expect the worst)

4-buying near the 20SMA when price is above it is a probably one of the best trades one can make in terms of risk:reward ratio.

I believe in the analysis you have made and it is very clear that bitcoin will still go below $9000 or maybe to the support level of around $7500 as is been speculated. Most of the cryptocurrency analyst is saying the same thing as I have read on Twitter and cryptocurrency sites' news. The hope we have in this is that bitcoin will take off from the 20ma on the weekly chart or 200ma on the daily chart.

Noobs will fail every test. It's impossible for them to withstand the brutal nature of this market when they 1) have invested their life savings, and 2) they have no clue about how Bitcoin works under the hood. Every $1-$2000 dip makes them question themselves so much that it drives them nuts to a degree where the sell button is just one click away.

Noobs trading stocks are similar. In the last couple of decades nothing changed when it comes to their behavior during corrections, so why would anything change in a market that's even more volatile and brutal? No amount of tips and tricks is enough to educate these poor fellas. They should stay far away from any type of market.

Generally people perceive the idea of TA wrongly. They think TA is some mathematics formula using which will bring us to single solution. That's wrong! TA doesn't bring absolute results. It is based on previous trends and in most of the cases subjective. Trends are further based on the past actions of traders. Now traders don't act in the same way every time. So TA is nothing but a short summary of all previous actions of traders. Therefore, we can say analysis of same security can show us two or more possible happenings (like the one in OP). In other words, TA can only show us possible roads and it is entirely our wish which road we want to walk on.

Was always looking for another entry point for my buys and I was thinking that anything below $10k was already a good possibility. We're now back at the $10k levels after a harsh correction down to $9300 these past few days and I don't think we'll be seeing a lot more downward action anytime sooner, but then again the forward momentum is still bleak. Orders from the buying side is still weak though, and I don't think the weak hands are already shaken--not yet.

It looks like the shake is over if it aint a correction. The bad side is if they are already accumulating while we are waiting.
Me, will be one of the victim though.  ;D
I am still giving it a week and if this price goes back down then I am buying already. Don't want them to be on the front row while I am just following them.
But if this goes to another stable week or a month then, there is a good chance an upward will come.
Just means the FOMO's are getting stronger hands which traders would not want to happen.  ;D
There should always be volatility for profits.

I am not a big charts guy so if you can answer me mikeywith that would be awesome. If we actually hit back on sma20 at 7200 dollars, does that mean it will stop there or could it also keep going down?

I do not understand charts at all so this may sound like an idiot question to you but from my understanding if the longest period where bitcoin went up without touching back to SMA20 seems 154 days from your post and that means could it be also under 154 days without touching it? That would mean that we would eventually reach 7200 dollars (don't know when) and then stay under it for another 150+ days without going back up which is a sad news. However, if it means it might reach 7200 and then go back up then that shouldn't be a big problem since we could eventually recover and go back up.

The best to expect is altcoins will recover to it's profitable price increasing value but the worst is same bearish trend will affect and make the price decline temporarily. Same with whaf we've experienced with btc at first, it pumped high the suddenly falls down.

IF we reach the 20SMA it's more  likely than not that we do NOT go below it, i'd would say 70% we bounce back 30% we drop below


Not really, you should understand how moving averages work, without having to go into explanation on the different between SMA that uses open price, high, low etc. let me explain the default setting which are usually the closing price of each week.


every weekend (Sunday) midnight whatever price is at that moment is recorded into a table, same things happens every week, the average of the last 20 weeks is taken by adding 20 numbers dived by 20.

which means, based on the last week's reading including the previous 19 weeks closing prices, the 20SMA is at 7200, but if this week closing price will change it, it could be 7400 or any other number depending on the closing price.

now if you understood the above, you should understand that for btc to correct at 7200$ it must happen before Sunday this week, which is very unlikely to be realistic, and since the current value 7200$ takes into account some closing prices of 4k or even 3k it means that even if price stays leveled at 9-10k the 20 SMA should only rise.

now the correction to 20SMA must happen sooner or later, the 7200$ is the worst scenario, provided btc sinks anywhere from today until Sunday, but assuming it doesn't correct to the 20SMA until say Sep then the lowest it can go would be 8500$, if it happens in OCT that could be 10k etc.


long story short : forget the number, watch the moving average itself, if you are looking for a buying opportunity that  20 SMA is a golden chance, but no matter what you do, do not wait for price to get to 7k or 8k , as I mentioned earlier, I am slowly buying my way up, every dip should be bought, and keep in mind the bigger the gap between current price and 20SMA the bigger the correction, even if btc was to head to 20k in a few weeks and the 20SMA still hangs around say 13k, price has to go back to test it, so learn to take profit if you want to trade, if you want to hodl for years then you should not waste your time reading any TAs because these are more like short term.

The increase of 15% today was followed up by fairly strong volumes. It's impossible to expect more given how uncertain the market still is. People aren't going in full but keep some aside just in case.

If we can have a bullish close on the daily chart we are likely to see +$11k levels, but this leg up could still be another lower high, so we shouldn't get overly excited even when the price touches $12k in the coming weeks.

As far week hands not being shaken out, most definitely not, but we've done well to shake out enough to fuel the current increase. Time will tell whether or not it will last, but people are certainly happy with it.

An old school trick/rule that can help you identify a strong buying momentum vs a weak one is the higher highs and higher lows.  

The scenario below would be a good indication that this mini rally is here to stay and it will be hard to reverse it

https://i.imgur.com/3UfhVAh.png



The scenario below means this likely just a correction of the down trend and more is to come.

https://i.imgur.com/sptrGQi.png


Realistically this weekly candle needs to close above the 5SMA which is at 10738$ for it to be considered bullish in the short term, as you can see in the chart below the 5 SMA (blue) is putting a lot of resistance which won't be easy to break, but if we do close above it, that's great news.

https://i.imgur.com/LYvx07I.png

An update on the current situation regarding this analysis.


The current 20SMA on the weekly is at 7591$ not a bad increase from last week , now from now till end of the week any drop to that level of 7.5k should not be taken as the end of this rally, so stay calm.

overall the trend is losing momentum, a month or two of consolidation and most likely lower highs is to be expected, also keep in mind that we are 35% far from the last high BTC made so selling now is not the best thing to do, for those who still looking for good entry points 8.5k to 9.5k should be it, and of cource if you are a trader, it would be safe to buy BTC near the 20SMA and to short it if price closes below it.


https://i.imgur.com/qiZyI7d.png

The OP chart seems a fair call, I dont count the high we've fallen from now as that special.   I dont think its too late to sell just we might need a stop loss as prices do need to confirm their weekly bar or whatever is the wider look

So on 4hr bar view price is increasingly weak and I count it as such while under 10,400.    It can recover but I reckon a sell is fair while its submerged in this way

https://i.imgur.com/Mi9mtso.png

its not a clear chart (https://i.imgur.com/x2UengV.png) but on the daily bars for me we explored our range upwards and hit the previous positive trend, its not surpassed that.   Since thats capped the upside, I think downside is more possible.   I would be alot richer if I could find the right confidence timing, its not easy because usually you have to overcome the markets doubts and noise but for what its worth Im more bearish for the moment.

Agreed, except for shorting below the 20-week MA. Once the trend has reached that far, it's likely to be near a local bottom.

Take the August 2015 crash, for example. By the time the weekly closed below the 20MA, price hit the ultimate bottom less than a week later just 13% lower. You could easily short the bottom that way.

I would prefer to find a local bottom, then short the subsequent bounce to the 20MA, like February/May/July 2018. That way you don't have to hold shorts through such a painful drawdown.

Here:

https://i.imgur.com/yTpyq8F.png


I am not sure if we are talking about the same 20MA here, the one I am using in this chart is the 20 Simple Moving Average on the weekly chart, and as you can see in the image above, every time we closed below the 20SMA on the weekly the trend shifted from bull to bear, except for what happened in Aug-2015 but that wasn't even a bull market then.

so in other words, I give a lot of thoughts when comes to major SMAs like the 20SMA , specially on time frames like the weekly and the monthly, so I have to disagree with finding local bottom below the 20SMA, because if that happens ( unlikely) then we will enter a bear market for a good period of time, the bottom should be at around the 20SMA or slightly above it.

Yes, you can see in those examples exactly what I'm talking about.

You said it's "safe" to short once we close below the 20-week MA. In February 2018, that meant shorting the February 5th open ~ $8,000 when the market literally bottomed the next day and then bounced to $11,800. Shorting based on a weekly signal one day before the bottom, so you can be immediately stopped out or otherwise eat a 50% drawdown? Bad strategy!

That's why I suggested to use the 20MA breakdown as a signal of a bear market, but not as a short entry. The chart shows clearly that you should not short the breakdown itself, but rather the subsequent bounces to the 20MA. In other words, wait for a local bottom below the 20MA then short the bounce once you see buying exhaustion.

The parallel here: If you're entering shorts in the $7,000s after a 45-50% drop has already occurred, you better not be trading the weekly chart. You better be ready to exit very quickly on lower time frames. Unless you like getting your shorts squeezed for the next several weeks, that is.


Yes, the 20-week MA.


It makes sense to shift from longing mode to shorting mode.

But you make it sound like one should just start shorting when the weekly closes below the 20MA. That's not a good decision. One should wait for a proper short entry with decent risk/reward. That's all I was saying.

Shorting/Longing break-outs depends on your trading style, if you are an aggressive trader you would short right after the break and your SL would be above the 20SMA, being conservative is doing exactly what you suggested.

your way is safer and has better R:R ratio , however many times you will miss the trade, since there is no guarantee for price to re-test prev support/resistance, but by all means if  one does not trade intra-day and base entries and exists on smaller time frames, then waiting for a re-test would be the better way of doing things.


Glad we agree to the main point of my theory here, regardless of how anyone is going to trade the market, it's safe to say that we are in a bear market when that happens.

Anyhow the chances of that happening now is very low, i suppose we will test the 20SMA  three to four times before this bull market is finally over.

I personally check the bad first to assure how long the progress will last.  And in order for me to make a temporary startegy as well. Actually i always check the both side ,but on this situation i believe bad things has a possibility always to happen afterwards due to some factor.. And in fact im not expecting a long  bull run on this circumstance since market always collapse.  And for me much better to quick selling in my opinion rather than expecting to much progress with bitcoin.

I'm all about trading breakouts. I just don't consider that a breakout. More of a trend signal.


I think your method is fine for selling at spot, but shorting just seems too risky. My system requires minimum 2.5:1 risk/reward which usually won't be possible in that situation, not after already falling so far.


Yes but I wonder where the MA will be when it's finally tested. Something tells me $7,500 is too far. :)

"too far" is too generous  ;D, i would say it's nearly impossible, because if 20SMA test is going to be around 7500$ then it has to happen this week, that's 2k drop in 3-4 days , I don't see that happening to be honest, next week the 20SMA will be at around 7800$, the week after that probably 8000$ or a bit higher, but no matter what, we are more likely than not going to test it in a few weeks regardless of where it is.

If we hover at these levels of 8000-10000 over the summer, I am cool with it  8) That's the bottom of the next run then.

Are you watching this triangle set-up?


https://i.imgur.com/Zi90SkF.png


The break out to the downside of this triangle on the 4H chart might ignite the down trend momentum to 8k ,  we made 3 higher lows and 3 lower highs, so a break out to either direction will be a good trade, given the fact this is a down trend chances are higher on the downside.


You might want to extend the range a little bit, 2k area for BTC for a whole summer is unlikely.

I think anything under 10k is a good entry point, I know its not going to be that easy to make yourself ready for under 10k because that would mean the price is going down and everyone is afraid of getting into bitcoin when its going down and I know it sounds a lot better to get into bitcoin during a bull run.

However, the reality is that if you try to get in during a bull run you may end up like the guy who bought at 13k and not like the guy who bought during 3k. So, when it goes down as low as 4k and even lower and when people were afraid that it might go under as low as under 2k there was people who bought under 4k and now they doubled and even trippled their money whereas people who were expecting it to go under 2k lost on good profit. Don't let yourself be like them and buy under 10k to sell over 13k to make a good profit.

Seems we're close to the apex now. I wonder if we'll get a real triangle breakout or if it'll just keep sideways through the bounds. I guess I'm waiting for a clean break of $9,500 or $10,200 at this point. My bias is still bearish for now but I'm a bit surprised at how hard this range is being defended by bulls.

My chart is messy so I wont post but sure I can see a triangle , my natural bias is to see the downtrend there as stronger but if it breaks past 10,223 then I'll take it that triangle broke out bullish and upwards there after.     Its only two weeks in size but thats enough for us to be retesting the upper prices again over 11,000 I guess.    $11,700 is my target for a breakout upwards, this is the previous daily trend going back months.   It can hover and decide direction once again in that area.

https://i.imgur.com/9iwZfMt.png


We are already breaking the triangle to the upside, i am kind of aggressive when dealing with such break outs, so I am not going to wait for the 4H candle to close, I am watching 10150$ which is the prev local resistance on this time frame, if this exact hourly candle manages to break that level I will jump in , my TP however is not as far as yours, 10700$ - 11000$ will be it for me.

I am not taking any large positions on USD pairs since BTC dominance is at major resistance, it's much more profitable to trade Alt/Btc pairs until BTC dominance shifts direction.

to stress more on the last point , 69% all the way down to 62% of dominance is good overall for alt/btc.

Hmm, I'm not sure about this move yet. It could be just be daily open shenanigans. We need to break and hold above the $10,200 level to establish a higher high. The 4-hour close might be informative considering these other short-lived pumps on the way down:

https://i.imgur.com/MqaH6Bd.png

The only difference about this pump is that it started from a higher low, unlike all the other pumps we recently had.

I have already opened a small long position , SL will be real tight, I expect this 1H candle to form a flag pole , a few hours of tiny little descending candles, a bull-flag followed by a small rally to 11k then ( bull-trap ) and finally a sell-off to break 9.5k support.

Daily open shenanigans it is! Thanks goodness for tight stops eh? This is why I'm conservative about counter trending in a strong downtrend like this. What an epic troll, already lower lows now:

https://i.imgur.com/v9VPC3u.png

Somebody has been heavily accumulating this range. Retesting the $9K level and running their stops now could lead to a real waterfall!

You got it right , and yes tight SL saved the day, when i trade aggressively i always have a very tight SL so that when price slaps me on the face it does not knock me off.

Agreed, but that wouldn't happen right away, however overall i am glad we having this healthy correction after the parabolic run we had from 4k, still keeping an eye on the 20sma.

Thought i'd drop this update since people are starting to panic after the recent sell-off, looking at the weekly time frame as I usually do


https://i.imgur.com/7SplIeQ.png


We can see the price is still trading above the 20SMA (orange) which I have talked about it's importance in the OP, and how  breaking the 5 SMA usually leads to a drop to the 20SMA, and so far we seem to doing just that.

Keep in mind that the 20SMA is currently at 8594$ as appose of 7200$ on the day I posted the analysis, we are a few days away from the weekly close and I do expect the 20SMA will be at around 8800$-8900$ so the chances of visiting that level is still in play, However !

the way the chart looks now, it seems like the bears are losing control and there is not enough selling pressure that would take us to below 9000$ again, and I do think price will still be in a sideways movement where 9k will be the bottom and 12k will be top for the next couple weeks.

TL;DR : there is nothing to worry about, we are still above the 20SMA, trend is still bullish , it makes more sense to accumulate than to sell at these ranges.

I am getting excited as we approach the 20SMA on the weekly, I know many people are worried about this little drop, but technically there is really nothing to worry about as long as we don't close between the 20SMA which is now at 9072$ as shown in the image below.


https://i.imgur.com/pK7ZUlv.png


Depending on how you trade / accumulate, current levels do look like good entries for the long run, keeping in mind that a wick through the 20SMA is very possible, so I am placing more buying positions all the way down to 8200$ in an attempt to get a good average entry price for my other entries.

When would I worry ?

a weekly candle close below the 20SMA opens the door for a few bad scenarios including 6k and another 3-5 months of side-ways bearish like market, aside from that happening, everything else points to 20k pretty soon.

I personally don't consider $6000 to be that much of a bad scenario. If you asked people before we got this run when they thought the price would finally hit $6000, they would place their bets at before the end of the year. I honestly thought the same about the price. Everything above $6000 would be a bonus and so far we have been generously rewarded.

I'm curious to see how the major levels on the way down will provide support with how they didn't form resistance on the way up. We broke through $6000 as if it hasn't provided any serious support before.

My realistic bearish scenario is $7000-$7500 and short term speaking realistic bullish scenario $11,500. We've had a few taps too many with the bottom of the descending triangle (which is currently providing support).

It wouldn't be bad per se, but it would indicate a marked difference from the 2016-2017 bull market. After the initial breakout in late 2015, price never closed below the 20-week MA until the 2017 top. It would definitely throw into question the idea that we're in a new bull market.

That said, there were two weekly closes below the 20-MA in June/July 2013, and we still bubbled the following November.