Hope for the best, Expect the worst

[mikeywith]

but if it breaks past 10,223 then I'll take it that triangle broke out bullish and upwards there after.

We are already breaking the triangle to the upside, i am kind of aggressive when dealing with such break outs, so I am not going to wait for the 4H candle to close, I am watching 10150$ which is the prev local resistance on this time frame, if this exact hourly candle manages to break that level I will jump in , my TP however is not as far as yours, 10700$ - 11000$ will be it for me.

I am not taking any large positions on USD pairs since BTC dominance is at major resistance, it's much more profitable to trade Alt/Btc pairs until BTC dominance shifts direction.

to stress more on the last point , 69% all the way down to 62% of dominance is good overall for alt/btc.

[exstasie]

We are already breaking the triangle to the upside, i am kind of aggressive when dealing with such break outs, so I am not going to wait for the 4H candle to close, I am watching 10150$ which is the prev local resistance on this time frame, if this exact hourly candle manages to break that level I will jump in , my TP however is not as far as yours, 10700$ - 11000$ will be it for me.

Hmm, I'm not sure about this move yet. It could be just be daily open shenanigans. We need to break and hold above the $10,200 level to establish a higher high. The 4-hour close might be informative considering these other short-lived pumps on the way down:

[mikeywith]

The 4-hour close might be informative considering these other short-lived pumps on the way down:

The only difference about this pump is that it started from a higher low, unlike all the other pumps we recently had.

I have already opened a small long position , SL will be real tight, I expect this 1H candle to form a flag pole , a few hours of tiny little descending candles, a bull-flag followed by a small rally to 11k then ( bull-trap ) and finally a sell-off to break 9.5k support.

[exstasie]

Hmm, I'm not sure about this move yet. It could be just be daily open shenanigans. We need to break and hold above the $10,200 level to establish a higher high. The 4-hour close might be informative considering these other short-lived pumps on the way down:

The only difference about this pump is that it started from a higher low, unlike all the other pumps we recently had.

I have already opened a small long position , SL will be real tight, I expect this 1H candle to form a flag pole , a few hours of tiny little descending candles, a bull-flag followed by a small rally to 11k then ( bull-trap ) and finally a sell-off to break 9.5k support.

Daily open shenanigans it is! Thanks goodness for tight stops eh? This is why I'm conservative about counter trending in a strong downtrend like this. What an epic troll, already lower lows now:



Somebody has been heavily accumulating this range. Retesting the $9K level and running their stops now could lead to a real waterfall!

[mikeywith]

[Daily open shenanigans it is! Thanks goodness for tight stops eh? :

You got it right , and yes tight SL saved the day, when i trade aggressively i always have a very tight SL so that when price slaps me on the face it does not knock me off.

waterfall!

Agreed, but that wouldn't happen right away, however overall i am glad we having this healthy correction after the parabolic run we had from 4k, still keeping an eye on the 20sma.

[mikeywith]

Thought i'd drop this update since people are starting to panic after the recent sell-off, looking at the weekly time frame as I usually do





We can see the price is still trading above the 20SMA (orange) which I have talked about it's importance in the OP, and how  breaking the 5 SMA usually leads to a drop to the 20SMA, and so far we seem to doing just that.

Keep in mind that the 20SMA is currently at 8594$ as appose of 7200$ on the day I posted the analysis, we are a few days away from the weekly close and I do expect the 20SMA will be at around 8800$-8900$ so the chances of visiting that level is still in play, However !

the way the chart looks now, it seems like the bears are losing control and there is not enough selling pressure that would take us to below 9000$ again, and I do think price will still be in a sideways movement where 9k will be the bottom and 12k will be top for the next couple weeks.

TL;DR : there is nothing to worry about, we are still above the 20SMA, trend is still bullish , it makes more sense to accumulate than to sell at these ranges.

[mikeywith]

I am getting excited as we approach the 20SMA on the weekly, I know many people are worried about this little drop, but technically there is really nothing to worry about as long as we don't close between the 20SMA which is now at 9072$ as shown in the image below.





Depending on how you trade / accumulate, current levels do look like good entries for the long run, keeping in mind that a wick through the 20SMA is very possible, so I am placing more buying positions all the way down to 8200$ in an attempt to get a good average entry price for my other entries.

When would I worry ?

a weekly candle close below the 20SMA opens the door for a few bad scenarios including 6k and another 3-5 months of side-ways bearish like market, aside from that happening, everything else points to 20k pretty soon.

[1Referee]

When would I worry ?

a weekly candle close below the 20SMA opens the door for a few bad scenarios including 6k and another 3-5 months of side-ways bearish like market, aside from that happening, everything else points to 20k pretty soon.

I personally don't consider $6000 to be that much of a bad scenario. If you asked people before we got this run when they thought the price would finally hit $6000, they would place their bets at before the end of the year. I honestly thought the same about the price. Everything above $6000 would be a bonus and so far we have been generously rewarded.

I'm curious to see how the major levels on the way down will provide support with how they didn't form resistance on the way up. We broke through $6000 as if it hasn't provided any serious support before.

My realistic bearish scenario is $7000-$7500 and short term speaking realistic bullish scenario $11,500. We've had a few taps too many with the bottom of the descending triangle (which is currently providing support).

[exstasie]

When would I worry ?

a weekly candle close below the 20SMA opens the door for a few bad scenarios including 6k and another 3-5 months of side-ways bearish like market, aside from that happening, everything else points to 20k pretty soon.

I personally don't consider $6000 to be that much of a bad scenario. If you asked people before we got this run when they thought the price would finally hit $6000, they would place their bets at before the end of the year. I honestly thought the same about the price. Everything above $6000 would be a bonus and so far we have been generously rewarded.

It wouldn't be bad per se, but it would indicate a marked difference from the 2016-2017 bull market. After the initial breakout in late 2015, price never closed below the 20-week MA until the 2017 top. It would definitely throw into question the idea that we're in a new bull market.

That said, there were two weekly closes below the 20-MA in June/July 2013, and we still bubbled the following November.