Bitcoin Forum

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.


my prediction

Gut feelings, they can't be right all the time.  :D

Short term speaking I'm kinda bearish and expect a decline towards the lower $8000 area and perhaps a wick below it, but that would only offer a great buying opportunity if so. I'm confident that we'll get to see a peak of over $100,000 during the next longer term bull run, but as always, where will it land once we top out and start correcting? It certainly won't be pretty.

My target is +$100,000 before the end of the block halving that will cut the rewards to 3.125BTC per block. I rather remain a bit conservative with my predictions and be surprised by how much more we have gone up.

Yes I agree, I did not think we would hit near 14K this early, then again the amount of money printing via debt issuance is epic, the distortions in the economy are in the untold trillions.

Essentially everthing is measure in FIAT and fiat is so badly broken where it can be printed and allocated on political whims rather than economic grounds.

Those that control the fiat essentially get to control your life. Hence BTC.

Infact Its hard to think or a reason to go back to Fiat even when BTC increases .... the value to have well value in with the unique properties of BTC is ..... invaluable. It's almost as close to freedom of existence that you can come to in your life.

It is nothing strange if price is go down 10% or even 20%, in most cases if we can not go up and stay too long close to some level, sooner or later someone will dump few thousands of BTC and make a crash.

It is very hard to predict what will happen in second half of this year, but I have feeling that we should see some interesting things. Still it is not quite clear what caused $10 000 price jump in just 2-3 months, and what will be the effects after that. It is evident that there is not power to price continue up, and it would not be surprise that we stay close to $10k level for some time.


I hope 5 years from now we can see value of 1 BTC close or above $100k, this is very realistic to expect considering everything that has happened over the past ten years. What I'm more interested in is next 10 years, and time when almost 99% of Bitcoins will be mined. Even Satoshi is say that in next 20 years there will be "very large transaction volume, or no volume", so we can assume that he obviously thought we will see at that time if Bitcoin is succeeded or not.

Anything can happen. It could go down 20% in next 6-12 montsh and then up 5% in two weeks and after that sideways for a day. and after sideways BAM. Price goes nuts and never come back!

Right. I haven't cashed out a single satoshi from my cold wallets back to my bank account in the last couple of years. All I have done (and still do) is utilize my speculation stack to ride bull and bear markets to end up with more Bitcoin.

I love to buy in when people sell it like crazy. It reminds me of what Warren Buffett once said;

The same applies to the Bitcoin market. This is a long term game. Most people are here solely for short term gains, but they are crushed hard and hand over their coins to those who value them more at a tasty discount. Like you and me. ;D

Let's just say that the current volatility surprises everyone a little bit, especially since all of this happened suddenly in April, yeah.
(Btw, It started on April 1 so it was April fool, no choice, so it won't stay lol). I think people are in a period when they are skeptic about the market, they don't know what to do and everyone is waiting for everyone
There are some good signals actually and the value has more reasons to increase in the next days/weeks/months than something else. But I can also see a storm coming.

I know people often target the $100,000, it's a realistic price, I know it, but I won't wait for. I'll leave before it happens (probably in the $70,000)

Im thinking that we would stabilize or doing sideways once again for 3-6months time just like what happened on last year to 1st quarter of this year.
8k price is the best spot to buy up some cheap coins and i dont see for us to break 14k too early.We see action as the upcoming halving event approaches.
For now the best thing to do is on scalping.

Since bitcoin get over $10,000 it has been behaving well and trying to stay above $10,000 unlike before that it cannot stay in sideways for long. Bitcoin should explode and get above $14,000 if it can gather good momentum to break $11125 trading area in the next push. I don’t think it will remain below $10,000 for long because of the buying pressures below $10,000.

And thank god for that, otherwise we'd be putting up altars and statues of gut predictors;)

Now of course there will be those for whom price will go against their gut every single time, and so, for a certain Tom Lee, I'm always hoping he and CNBC crew turn into permabears, cause that would suit me so well!

I've been a naughty bear short term for a very long time now, I still see 2020 as the earliest ever for a proper good old-fashioned rodeo. Just hope Í'm as prepared to understand the next (Temporary) top, otherwise it'll be for nothing!

I'm sorry but I disagree, I don't see the price stabilizing, we might end up in a crazy ride for the next two much so it will be another big test for everyone or at least to those who didn't see this coming. So be ready to buy if the price goes $8000. I think this will be the best opportunity to get it and stash more.

But I agree that $14000 will be touch so easily, it's too early. Speculators easily cashing out when the price it's $13000 but we might test that price in October or at least at the end of the year. So I'm bracing myself for another wet and wild before the next halving.  ;D

Better to estimate with some solid boundaries so you can know when you are wrong and join a move upwards possibly.    I think its due to go down but I'm not sure by much, it seems to be continually below any positive trend so I presume it will breakout downwards but again I cant be sure when.

https://i.imgur.com/2HcQYro.png

Heres the chart to show we are continually below the weekly average price in yellow and today it capped any price movements, hence we are showing price quite negative since that point.   Its a good bet to call it negatively near the yellow line as there is little margin until it proves otherwise but a larger amount to gain should it fall like it has.


I wish I had done the same but on the daily bar chart, on 20th July we again met a ceiling and have fallen since it seems.   Would have been a price difference of upto 1,500 by now.

Well probably prediction can bring chance but most may bring failure

I have seen so many speculation this year and only few got near to what they predict so basically I’m not falling into that instead will wait for the right timing

My holdings now are intact and willing to get even longer for the Dream value to change lives,so hoping that $250k will come in a matter of years or so

Before clicking on the topic, I was expecting to see some chart or reasons to support your hypothesis. But I guess in a way all traders go with what they feel or desire, as predictions and analysis usually does not reflect the direction of the market.

I am expecting that within the final quarter of the year we would surpass the current ATH, of course it could take a dip before then, but a $20k target is possible

Not pretty sure of that..imagine how many times we fall before we hit $12k is might be the same thing it happens in the final quarter of this year and looking how it manages to recover..it is really hard..
I am that hoping that we can even step $18k before we end this year and it is not a bad price for Bitcoin.

This is a perfect conservative prediction  ;) :D, you expect a 400 plus growth in the price around block halving and in any economic terms it is an outrageous prediction to see a 400% growth in a short period of time and that is the real difference between bitcoin and the rest of the financial investments, no one can hope for having a price increase like that in any investment class in the market and so is the reason financial institutions will enter this market in the coming future as no one can neglect a cash cow like bitcoin .

@jubalix. As the no.1 supporter and defender of the Tom Lee Fan Club, I know I have the authority to say that Tom Lee approves of your prediction.

https://engineering.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/styles/large-square/public/e646dd6338bc8df585d57d267a2057a7.jpg?itok=usT8W2aA
The Tom Lee smile of approval

we have been in a sideways market for a while now so 5% drop or rise is not a prediction, it is what has been happening all along in this period. anything bigger than that like 20% is a prediction and the past couple of days has showed that it is not happening and we are still in the same price range going up and down constantly.

my prediction is that this is going to continue for a while, long enough to discourage many investors and fill the pockets of accumulators. then the next FOMO period starts as soon as the breakout occurs and causes another shoot up in price just like what we had when we broke above $4k

No other options?

I mean, when we predict, we dont just stick to one right?
We kind of create another outcome analyzing every possible event that may happen or looking at its history.
I dont see any wrong about your prediction for it could be right or not. But, I want to be real and not go way far in pricing the bitcoin value.
15k is getting harder to reach by now. What kind of event could still make it pump?

I don't even think this worth a topic of its own. Bitcoin goes up and down 5% all the time, its not newsworthy to me. The price of bitcoin has been volatile since day one and yes there are days when there is huge movements and they are crazy enough that not only one topic but multiple topics open about it and when it goes from 4k to 10k people start to open topics like "will it be 1 million dollars" and when it goes from 13k to 10k people open topics like "will it go back down to 4k" and basically radicalize the prices a lot because volatility is something we got used to now and people expect that type of crazy moves. However 5% is not like that at all, it moves in the trend prices right now and as long as it doesn't go under 9k or above 13k there is really nothing new going on.

I am not sure is it reasonable to think that next ATH will be $100k or something close to that, maybe next ATH would be around $50k or something like that. If we think in this direction, then $100k is still years away, and maybe you should think to change your strategy. Imagine you wait $70k and at $50k things go downhill, and next big correction will probably wipe out 70%-80% of Bitcoin value as always in past.

I certainly agree with you that if you want some profit, it is not wise to wait too long and be greedy - so maybe the best strategy would be to sell all way up, or just set some target and wait.

@Lucius I’ll second that $100k is an unrealistic target at best I’m expecting it to touch $40k in coming years, my target for this year end is $20k at max. @LeGaulois knowing you I won’t even be surprised if you manage to sell it at $70k, only to buy it back on dibs and once again sell when you’re in profits. I hope people too will follow this strategy, that is to sell when one’s getting profits without being greedy.

In my opinion,$100k is not only unrealistic but almost impossible to see in the next couple of years.As soon as BTC hits the last ATH which is $20k, the victims of the last -80% dump will instantly sell to cancel their previous loss; which means that BTC will struggle before breaking this level. In short,my prediction is that BTC won't exceed $30k-$40k in the next 5 years unless there is an extremely good news that pops up launching another long lasting bull run.

My prediction is that if everytime bitcoin rises, altcoins don't rise as well then we are going to suffer the same situation over and over again.
The market is not positive to alts and it seems like investors don't trust them any more. Any of them. Only if this situation is reverses we are going to see a significant increase not only in bitcoin price, but also in the market cap. and this increase if going to stay.

Today's market looks like more than correction now, I was feeling like it was just a correction and the price would go back up soon but right now it looks like we are doomed once again. I know I should not be pessimistic about bitcoin since its quite a volatile coin and it could do whatever it wants but right now everything points out to bitcoin going as far as it can and than going down right now.

We have broken the prices we have previously not seen for over a year but now we just have to accept the fact that enough money was poured into bitcoin to make it what it is and now its not getting any more new money coming in. If we can manage to convince big banks and what not to invest once again than we can have a change of pace and go up again but unless we find some whales quickly it looks like it will go down even more.

So far the very bottom as of this week is $9300+ it's not that bad though it is still a stable price. The only reason that i know when Bitcoin starts to fall like this without any news is that it is just a correction or whales starting to stir things up again to create a new rally.

Luckily Bitcoin can't go down and break another low price resistance yet thanks to that $9300 support and the price is still holding.

You'll leave as in cashing out all your coins and then go your own path? That's what it sounds like to me. If that's so, it really sounds like you think $70-$100k is Bitcoin's end game price.

Even if Bitcoin reaches $1 million I will never sell all my coins because it will then be just as much of a store of value as it is today, but then more stable due to the much larger market cap and the maturation of the market.

I might not even actually sell any coins because by that time I'll very likely will be able to purchase a house or whatever else that's expensive by paying for it with Bitcoin. I'm here until the end.

Also, $70k is quite a random price target, which makes be believe that if you really plan to unload all your coins at some point, you'll most likely have done it before the $50k mark because the temptation of selling will make you do so much sooner.

Right this second you could be optimistic and call out the tide change that can happen on Sunday night.   Its already fallen, from now till that main market open you can have the price open upto $10,100 area or nearby.
It can even try to break past and we can see higher though it might fall back.   All that is a reasonable bet to take, while people are gloomy now from the fall we have an opportunity.    I held off any extra bet this weekend because of this effect.

Last week is the bad week for me, but now, I can see the light for bitcoin because of the price increases although it's not so high. I have hope now that in the next week, bitcoin will increase because I see that the new trend for bitcoin to rise will come soon. The green candle comes now, although it still not give the right information, and that makes me wait for a while to decide.

I think the approach of "we have already gone so much, lets be happy about that for a while" is good enough. I mean do we really need to go to 15k? Do we need to break the all time high record? Can't we just be happy about the fact that we have managed to make bitcoin go triple of what it used to be? Shouldn't that be enough for all of us? Why do we want bitcoin to always go up?

I will tell you why, because we want to make a profit not use bitcoin for what it is, people don't care about bitcoin, bitcoin could be zero and they wouldn't mind as long as they make profit from it. People only care about dollars they have in their bank accounts and we can't really make something out bitcoin and get global adoption if we only care about the price, it is really sad and upsetting.

In this moment looks unrealistic for next ATH, but there is always possibility that something really big is going to happen and this will push price up at least ten times to $100k. Only thing that can do that in my opinion is Bitcoin ETF approval, or some very big player who will start to buy Bitcoin like crazy. I think that both options have very little chance of happening this or next year, and that big bull run will probably start after next halving.


We can not exactly know how many people are still holding what they buy in late 2017 and in first months of 2018, but some of then are probably sell during 2018, most of them could be placed in the category of weak hands. It is also fact that price is very close to $14k recently, and this was possibility for some investors to take their money back.

Some experts think that next bull run will be driven by institutional money, and they can take all coins from week hands and boost price at least x3 or x4 from where it is today.

Anything can happen but crazy price movements will be impossible. the price won't go up to $200k, it is a very crazy value for only 1 crypto. the price falling is very likely to be, like down 50% because bitcoin market had experienced it several times before. so stay prepared with all the possibilities on the market

@perla I know for sure I'm not the only one who feels almost the complete opposite of that. I was actually really comfortable when the bigwigs and the old hands were starting to worry last year. Alleged holders were giving up. Tom Lee supposedly gave up predictions. The bullish threads were dying out.

But it didn't totally die down and that's what I wish happened. I wanted the bear or whatever winter to stamp out and purge the optimists. Because that would have really kept in only the strong.

The recovery came too soon. Not a bad thing at all but it delays the massive bull I'd like to see.

So yeah, no, seeing all the good news doesn't make me feel particularly good.

True that, but we should not put  all our hopes in our prediction especially if it is not backed by anything.  Even the best of the technical analysis were shamed by Bitcoin.  Proving them  that their guesses are wrong.  



Predicting one thing and stating the opposite with "ifs" is just another play it safe guesses.  I bet there is no TA that can 100% predict the  "what" and "when"  of Bitcoin price.

This is what I think as well, I thought that this year will be a boring one and not much will happen and that will make the remaining weak hands to sell their coins, but instead we got an important recovery and while many were happy about it, and I am as well, this is going to delay the bull market that can produce a new all time high, and the reason is simple only a minority of traders and investors make money and after this recovery most traders will expect an even greater performance in 2020 due to the halving but now I have my doubts it will happen since not everyone can be a winner.

Its looking bad because we got a bad weekly close. I am think we will probably at least see $8.5K area before we head back up past $11K or so.

The issue here is that since June 26th when we almost hit $14K, we kept making lower lows and lower highs and this is clearly seen on the daily chart.

With the declining volume however it looks like maybe the bulls might have a chance, hopefully the $9100 support holds and doesn't break. If it goes then there is massive stops below $9000 and should hit $8.7K area very quickly shortly after.

When bitcoins price tends to have a good run people do believe that it can even reach out $14k price but eventually the price movement didn't sustained but instead it did correct which is expected because not all the time we would see a continuous price increase.I do prefer on having that way than on seeing short term spikes and a very devastating correction later on.

Support were able to hold, this year so far, bitcoin has no let us down yet and I pretty confident this year is gonna be a bullish year.
After it's being down $10K and causes some panic, here we are back again at $10K and because we recover, we might see more uptrend, probably $11K in the next few days, that's my very optimistic guess.

Glad to see bitcoin price going stronger this day, the price increase slowly but it gives good progress to go up. If the situations are like this, I think in the next week, we will see bitcoin price will increase more than $10k and still increase more. But that will not happen if suddenly the price is down and that will make people panic for a while. Maybe in these two days, the price will reach and break $11k and no matter if the price is down, it will get up again.

Similarly, I can name up plenty of reasons to why declining volumes can favor the bears. At the end of the day, a decline in volume has historically lead to more declines than increases for Bitcoin, especially during an already bearish momentum.

I'm not sure if there are massive stops below $9000 because we were very close, and if the stops where located there, it would have tempted market movers to trigger them with how thin the order books were/are.

The thing with stops being triggered is that it will very likely not respect support levels until the last stop has been liquidated. Bots are quick to withdraw buy orders which might lead to a mini flash crash and therefore much lower levels.

We never undercut the July 17th low, so regarding stops, we just don't know. Makers and whales don't all always agree either. There was a whale fighting very hard to prop the market up (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5159240.msg51997379#msg51997379) above those lows, market buying into every dump. That seemed to discourage sellers.

If the market goes back to $9K there will definitely be massive stops located there by now. No such thing as a triple bottom!

The price is roughly revolving around the 50 day average at present, if we look at previous behaviour its tended to match rough momentum in the price.

https://i.imgur.com/ZNggil9.png

Was previously a very fast trend, now it could show us as being capped in our aspirations for the moment at least.   50MA is moving upwards quite strongly still, its hardly a negative so far; more of a brake possibly.

Don't forget that with investing in Bitcoin you always take certain risk that you need to be prepared on and you can't fully predict how the price will behave.
It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.

With the spikes last month it was waiting for a correction before we pushed over the 10 again and are going to testing 11k currently. What made you expecting it would drop further ?

Basic mass logic; everything that pumps will pump higher and everything that dumps will dump lower.

It would help if people for once paid attention to what actually happens on a technical level, but nope, they just have their 15-30 minute charts open and look at the red and green candles. Green candles mean it's a fantastic day while red candles mean that big bad whales are manipulating the market to buy lower.

I lost count on how many people have blamed whales for pushing the price down ever since we marked the yearly high.

The mythical whales, if the market is dictated so easily then its not going to last anyhow folks.   Markets serve the people to decide a price, thats definitely going to vary over a weekend vs the week days I reckon and all sorts of other factors.   

15 or 30 min bars wont say much just noise short term.   The lowest time frame for any reasonable conclusion I would say is 4hr or 1 hour if you cant wait for the 4 to close I guess is ok so long as you check back if the 4hr bar closed up or down.
  Right this moment I'm waiting for UTC time to confirm the 1 day bar as above the 50 day average price or not.   Seems like it will close above 50 day which is bullish action but MA is just momentum indicator to flag strength I think. 

the problem is that most of the things we read online are not what people really expect to happen. what we read is mostly what they wish to happen specially things they post in social media. for example there are a lot of day traders who place a buy order at for example $9500 when price is $9800 and then come online and "predict" price to fall down to $7000 because they want their $9500 buy order to be filled.

what gives you the impression people are doing that? do you think that kind of "manipulation" has an effect?

most analysts/traders are just wrong most of the time. if they were calling $7k, it's more likely they were just affected by recency bias. so in a downtrend, they just expect lower and lower and lower. shorting the bottom, etc. IMO, most price predictions are what people actually expect. this is for 2 reasons:

1. ego. nobody likes posting predictions and getting it wrong. in fact, sometimes it feels more important to be correct than to make money. :D
2. a lot of analysts on social media are trying to sell signal services. they need correct predictions, not blatantly wrong ones.

The biggest direction changes are when public consensus is in agreement.   The various traders predicting all different targets are not that consensus, they are all seperate and the effect of their calls is not the united effort required to really move a price.
    Stuff like the Facebook Libra coin I can believe does have an effect, simple reasons why would be:

• Immediate story, not complex and everyone 'understands' simultaneously
• Common conclusions, many believe Libra coin is related to crypto somehow
• Participants all facing the same direction, hence we have a push from many believing its a bullish event and speculate as such

I dont even think Libra is crypto, its slightly different to Paypal and thats it.   More details required but so far I dont see why its important directly.   However since its speculation the facts dont matter that much at the moment, the story has given many similar motivation to which creates a wave in the market which acts like self confirmation so now it must be true!
    In this case its bullish, later if Libra is not really a positive then we get a retraction in that speculation I think and some weakness but it wont be as singular but distributed over time before and after Libra releases.  Buy the rumour sell the news