I thought btc would go down 5% today.... (but it went up 4%?)

[jubalix]

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.


my prediction

[1Referee]

Gut feelings, they can't be right all the time.  

Short term speaking I'm kinda bearish and expect a decline towards the lower $8000 area and perhaps a wick below it, but that would only offer a great buying opportunity if so. I'm confident that we'll get to see a peak of over $100,000 during the next longer term bull run, but as always, where will it land once we top out and start correcting? It certainly won't be pretty.

My target is +$100,000 before the end of the block halving that will cut the rewards to 3.125BTC per block. I rather remain a bit conservative with my predictions and be surprised by how much more we have gone up.

[jubalix]

Gut feelings, they can't be right all the time.  

Short term speaking I'm kinda bearish and expect a decline towards the lower $8000 area and perhaps a wick below it, but that would only offer a great buying opportunity if so. I'm confident that we'll get to see a peak of over $100,000 during the next longer term bull run, but as always, where will it land once we top out and start correcting? It certainly won't be pretty.

My target is +$100,000 before the end of the block halving that will cut the rewards to 3.125BTC per block. I rather remain a bit conservative with my predictions and be surprised by how much more we have gone up.

Yes I agree, I did not think we would hit near 14K this early, then again the amount of money printing via debt issuance is epic, the distortions in the economy are in the untold trillions.

Essentially everthing is measure in FIAT and fiat is so badly broken where it can be printed and allocated on political whims rather than economic grounds.

Those that control the fiat essentially get to control your life. Hence BTC.

Infact Its hard to think or a reason to go back to Fiat even when BTC increases .... the value to have well value in with the unique properties of BTC is ..... invaluable. It's almost as close to freedom of existence that you can come to in your life.

[Lucius]

It is nothing strange if price is go down 10% or even 20%, in most cases if we can not go up and stay too long close to some level, sooner or later someone will dump few thousands of BTC and make a crash.

It is very hard to predict what will happen in second half of this year, but I have feeling that we should see some interesting things. Still it is not quite clear what caused $10 000 price jump in just 2-3 months, and what will be the effects after that. It is evident that there is not power to price continue up, and it would not be surprise that we stay close to $10k level for some time.

My target is +$100,000 before the end of the block halving that will cut the rewards to 3.125BTC per block. I rather remain a bit conservative with my predictions and be surprised by how much more we have gone up.

I hope 5 years from now we can see value of 1 BTC close or above $100k, this is very realistic to expect considering everything that has happened over the past ten years. What I'm more interested in is next 10 years, and time when almost 99% of Bitcoins will be mined. Even Satoshi is say that in next 20 years there will be "very large transaction volume, or no volume", so we can assume that he obviously thought we will see at that time if Bitcoin is succeeded or not.

[Febo]

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.
my prediction

Anything can happen. It could go down 20% in next 6-12 montsh and then up 5% in two weeks and after that sideways for a day. and after sideways BAM. Price goes nuts and never come back!

[1Referee]

Infact Its hard to think or a reason to go back to Fiat even when BTC increases .... the value to have well value in with the unique properties of BTC is ..... invaluable. It's almost as close to freedom of existence that you can come to in your life.

Right. I haven't cashed out a single satoshi from my cold wallets back to my bank account in the last couple of years. All I have done (and still do) is utilize my speculation stack to ride bull and bear markets to end up with more Bitcoin.

I love to buy in when people sell it like crazy. It reminds me of what Warren Buffett once said;

The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

The same applies to the Bitcoin market. This is a long term game. Most people are here solely for short term gains, but they are crushed hard and hand over their coins to those who value them more at a tasty discount. Like you and me.

[LeGaulois]

...

Let's just say that the current volatility surprises everyone a little bit, especially since all of this happened suddenly in April, yeah.
(Btw, It started on April 1 so it was April fool, no choice, so it won't stay lol). I think people are in a period when they are skeptic about the market, they don't know what to do and everyone is waiting for everyone
There are some good signals actually and the value has more reasons to increase in the next days/weeks/months than something else. But I can also see a storm coming.

I know people often target the $100,000, it's a realistic price, I know it, but I won't wait for. I'll leave before it happens (probably in the $70,000)

[Mahanton]

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.


my prediction

Im thinking that we would stabilize or doing sideways once again for 3-6months time just like what happened on last year to 1st quarter of this year.
8k price is the best spot to buy up some cheap coins and i dont see for us to break 14k too early.We see action as the upcoming halving event approaches.
For now the best thing to do is on scalping.

[omonuyak]

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.


my prediction

Im thinking that we would stabilize or doing sideways once again for 3-6months time just like what happened on last year to 1st quarter of this year.
8k price is the best spot to buy up some cheap coins and i dont see for us to break 14k too early.We see action as the upcoming halving event approaches.
For now the best thing to do is on scalping.

Since bitcoin get over $10,000 it has been behaving well and trying to stay above $10,000 unlike before that it cannot stay in sideways for long. Bitcoin should explode and get above $14,000 if it can gather good momentum to break $11125 trading area in the next push. I don’t think it will remain below $10,000 for long because of the buying pressures below $10,000.

[buwaytress]

Gut feelings, they can't be right all the time.  

Short term speaking I'm kinda bearish and expect a decline towards the lower $8000 area and perhaps a wick below it, but that would only offer a great buying opportunity if so. I'm confident that we'll get to see a peak of over $100,000 during the next longer term bull run, but as always, where will it land once we top out and start correcting? It certainly won't be pretty.

My target is +$100,000 before the end of the block halving that will cut the rewards to 3.125BTC per block. I rather remain a bit conservative with my predictions and be surprised by how much more we have gone up.

And thank god for that, otherwise we'd be putting up altars and statues of gut predictors;)

Now of course there will be those for whom price will go against their gut every single time, and so, for a certain Tom Lee, I'm always hoping he and CNBC crew turn into permabears, cause that would suit me so well!

I've been a naughty bear short term for a very long time now, I still see 2020 as the earliest ever for a proper good old-fashioned rodeo. Just hope Í'm as prepared to understand the next (Temporary) top, otherwise it'll be for nothing!

[Kemarit]

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.


my prediction

Im thinking that we would stabilize or doing sideways once again for 3-6months time just like what happened on last year to 1st quarter of this year.
8k price is the best spot to buy up some cheap coins and i dont see for us to break 14k too early.We see action as the upcoming halving event approaches.
For now the best thing to do is on scalping.

I'm sorry but I disagree, I don't see the price stabilizing, we might end up in a crazy ride for the next two much so it will be another big test for everyone or at least to those who didn't see this coming. So be ready to buy if the price goes $8000. I think this will be the best opportunity to get it and stash more.

But I agree that $14000 will be touch so easily, it's too early. Speculators easily cashing out when the price it's $13000 but we might test that price in October or at least at the end of the year. So I'm bracing myself for another wet and wild before the next halving. 

[STT]

Better to estimate with some solid boundaries so you can know when you are wrong and join a move upwards possibly.    I think its due to go down but I'm not sure by much, it seems to be continually below any positive trend so I presume it will breakout downwards but again I cant be sure when.



Heres the chart to show we are continually below the weekly average price in yellow and today it capped any price movements, hence we are showing price quite negative since that point.   Its a good bet to call it negatively near the yellow line as there is little margin until it proves otherwise but a larger amount to gain should it fall like it has.


I wish I had done the same but on the daily bar chart, on 20th July we again met a ceiling and have fallen since it seems.   Would have been a price difference of upto 1,500 by now.

[Siren]

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.


my prediction

Well probably prediction can bring chance but most may bring failure

I have seen so many speculation this year and only few got near to what they predict so basically I’m not falling into that instead will wait for the right timing

My holdings now are intact and willing to get even longer for the Dream value to change lives,so hoping that $250k will come in a matter of years or so

[Upgrade00]

Before clicking on the topic, I was expecting to see some chart or reasons to support your hypothesis. But I guess in a way all traders go with what they feel or desire, as predictions and analysis usually does not reflect the direction of the market.

I am expecting that within the final quarter of the year we would surpass the current ATH, of course it could take a dip before then, but a $20k target is possible

[Hypnosis00]

I am expecting that within the final quarter of the year we would surpass the current ATH, of course it could take a dip before then, but a $20k target is possible

Not pretty sure of that..imagine how many times we fall before we hit $12k is might be the same thing it happens in the final quarter of this year and looking how it manages to recover..it is really hard..
I am that hoping that we can even step $18k before we end this year and it is not a bad price for Bitcoin.

[ene1980]

My target is +$100,000 before the end of the block halving that will cut the rewards to 3.125BTC per block. I rather remain a bit conservative with my predictions and be surprised by how much more we have gone up.

This is a perfect conservative prediction  , you expect a 400 plus growth in the price around block halving and in any economic terms it is an outrageous prediction to see a 400% growth in a short period of time and that is the real difference between bitcoin and the rest of the financial investments, no one can hope for having a price increase like that in any investment class in the market and so is the reason financial institutions will enter this market in the coming future as no one can neglect a cash cow like bitcoin .

[bbc.reporter]

@jubalix. As the no.1 supporter and defender of the Tom Lee Fan Club, I know I have the authority to say that Tom Lee approves of your prediction.


The Tom Lee smile of approval

[pooya87]

we have been in a sideways market for a while now so 5% drop or rise is not a prediction, it is what has been happening all along in this period. anything bigger than that like 20% is a prediction and the past couple of days has showed that it is not happening and we are still in the same price range going up and down constantly.

my prediction is that this is going to continue for a while, long enough to discourage many investors and fill the pockets of accumulators. then the next FOMO period starts as soon as the breakout occurs and causes another shoot up in price just like what we had when we broke above $4k

[Reid]

No other options?

I mean, when we predict, we dont just stick to one right?
We kind of create another outcome analyzing every possible event that may happen or looking at its history.
I dont see any wrong about your prediction for it could be right or not. But, I want to be real and not go way far in pricing the bitcoin value.
15k is getting harder to reach by now. What kind of event could still make it pump?

[el kaka22]

I don't even think this worth a topic of its own. Bitcoin goes up and down 5% all the time, its not newsworthy to me. The price of bitcoin has been volatile since day one and yes there are days when there is huge movements and they are crazy enough that not only one topic but multiple topics open about it and when it goes from 4k to 10k people start to open topics like "will it be 1 million dollars" and when it goes from 13k to 10k people open topics like "will it go back down to 4k" and basically radicalize the prices a lot because volatility is something we got used to now and people expect that type of crazy moves. However 5% is not like that at all, it moves in the trend prices right now and as long as it doesn't go under 9k or above 13k there is really nothing new going on.