Bitcoin Forum

In my last analysis   (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5165927.0) I talked about how we were suppose to test the 20SMA on the weekly chart after closing below the 5SMA



https://i.imgur.com/uLjSTn2.png


The only mistake I made was estimating at which point that test would be, and I did mentioned this


fortunately for some people and unfortunately for others, price stayed almost leveled and the 20SMA managed to get to 9797$ and today was the actual test on the 20SMA on the weekly chart.

we had a wick all the way down to 9.5k which i excepted to be even more severe, but that does not really matter anyhow, let's now view the current situation and explain to you why do I think that  by next week and probably for a good number of years we will most likely never be able buy bitcoin for 9500$.


https://i.imgur.com/mrD4tYb.png

By looking at the weekly chart on the BLX chart ( I would prefer you open the chart and have the 20 and 5 SMA on the weekly chart to get a better view as the image is not clear enough)


We see from the chart, that the 20SMA is the most accurate SMA which differentiates the bear or bull market condition, and there is no debate here that we are in a bull market now.

Another thing you can clearly see from the chart , after everytime the 5 and 20 SMAs get squeezed to the point that they touch one another, it's usually followed by a good run to the upside in a bull market, and to the downside in a bear market.


https://i.imgur.com/MBnY0ST.png

Zooming in the chart we can see the squeeze, the 5SMA is at 10098$ while the 20SMA is at 9797$ , by next week  the latter should be at higher price and the 5SMA will probably be at the lower price and they will meet at the same price level probably 9900$ or so.

in the past everytime we had this squeeze, price gradually and slowly increase for 4-5 weeks and then takes a spaceship to the moon , we also know that whenever price touches the 20SMA after hitting the bottom ,it marks the cheapest price bitcoin is ever going to be.


How does this scenario becomes invalid?

1-5SMA crosses the 20SMA to the downside
2-A weekly candle closes below  9797$

If these 2 things happen, I am not sure how to describe the situation with any other words but  "tragic".

It depends on what side of the trade you are of course, but I do agree that most people would consider that a nightmare.

In the end, how tragic can it really be? Before we saw the price pump from $4000 to $5000 most people didn't give Bitcoin a single chance to come anywhere near the $10,000 level before the end of the year. I have seen people throw around with sub $1000 bottom scenarios. $6000-$7000 will definitely shake out a lot of week hands, but at the same time still be a fantastic area to settle a new bottom.

I see a bearish break as one last MAJOR buying opportunity for those who missed the boat. Heck, I would use that as a buying opportunity too. It's too good to say no to.

Classic head fake with that dip to the $9,500s! Looks like bears were rejected with authority and bulls are now on the verge of breakout.

We could conceivably keep ping ponging a bit longer inside this range but I doubt it can hold much longer. The down trend line from the June top stands around $10,350. That's our first major obstacle. Breaking and closing above the $10,800-$11K area will confirm a new uptrend. It'll form a higher high on the daily and trigger a BB squeeze.

https://i.imgur.com/2aZDEM2.png

I do not think anyone who is into Bitcoin would love to see it tank, even for day traders like myself I have more interest for the upside, I also feel bad for those bought at 13k , a drop to 6k will most certainly make the majority of them leave the game.

The problem with breaking below the 20SMA  on the weeky is that the trend will lose it's bullish characteristic, we may very well enter a bear market for another year or so, I doubt it will be just a matter of testing the 5-6k region and then heading back to ATH , I do not see it going that route.



A daily close above the green trend line is bullish enough to me, right now we are looking at 10600$ , the triangle is getting squeezed , the market has got to decide before the 9th of October , I expect next week  to be a very interesting week for bitcoin.

https://i.imgur.com/MVngpli.png

I disagree. It would be a blessing if we went back to $3000 ish for a final bottom. That would be the "go all in" moment. And personally the all time chart would look more confident for me if we went towards that area for either a lower bottom or a new low, then go for a $100k+ ish ATH for the next halving (and I don't mean 2020 halving but 2024). If you translate what I said into a chart you'll see it looks way more solid. However if the bottom is really in, then we better get to ATH for the next inmediate halving, because being rejected there would only delay an actual ATH further typically (again, this is Bitcoin we are talking about here).

Too many people want that. There's just too many buyers waiting in the wings. Here's what Tim West had to say after this last dump was fully retraced. Specifically he's talking about an OBV derivative indicator called rgmov, and how it's really weak in BTCUSD:


Many other indicators are telling me the same thing.

$3K is long gone. Be ready for a violent rally any day now. ;)

It’s just a matter of time before we start to rise significantly again. The halving in May is coming soon & honeybadger always wakes up as we get near to the halving. I definitely think the King will begin to rally soon.

I think that a factor to be added is the end of summer. Especially October was not a bad month for Bitcoin even last year (2 years ago that was imho the start of FOMO!)
The upwards pressure grows and the traders are back to work.

Plebs sold, whale-cumulators bought everything up, and took Bitcoin back to $10,000. Their next move, outbid everyone. Plebs' move?

Agreed, the rise and fall in value of bitcoin is completely uncertain. Last time we encountered the increase in the price only after the days of halving. We don't know what is going to happen by this halving. This could possibly reach a bigger price than predicted, making the king more stronger than ever.

We have to create noise around the market, its time to wake up the king to serve his kingdom. Well, bitcoin have to pump after this fall because we can’t go below the level of $5k again. There are so many indicators that give the pump sign with bitcoin, in time it will begin to follow that indicators and make a good uptrend.

Plebs dont like the technology behind bitcoin. They want it only for quick profits, and see it as a ponzi scheme.

This will only change when governments adopt bitcoin as a second currency, which will probably not happen since it would threat the dollar as the global reserve currency. I dont need to remind anyone about what happened to Lybia when they tried to create a regional reserve currency.

Let the plebs be plebs and let the whales accumulate. We cant change human nature.

Bitcoin may wake up now onward and go there and there is no chart that will stop it from going there if this time also resistance around $14 stops it one more time. Just to give an example what stops a rich person to sell 20k bitcoins all at once right now? Surely they won't do it because it would mean they would lose money but that is literally a possibility in crypto since there is no regulations. It means saying bitcoin won't do this or that is not correct.

However, you can use words like "probably" or "likely" and that way you can get away from that sharp way of talking. All things considered I agree with OP, bitcoin is about to make a big increase, everything indicates that right now and I am honestly considering it a big possibility as well.

Well, the $14,000 USD mark is approachable and I guess it will not be this year but the year 2020 that we can reach these heights, cause I guess there is still a lot of drama in the market and resistance going on that is why it is pretty sure to move back a bit but we are still in the midst of a bull run but this bull run can take turn and this movement is not very promising in my opinion, but who's in a hurry if the price is still in the smooth sailing of $10,000 USD it is a fair price in my opinion for having it for almost many weeks now.

That's only partially true. Some plebs HODL, but are easier manipulated by the whale-cumulators into selling their coins to them. Next whale-cumulator move is to outbid the plebs during a bull market. Plebs' move?

We need that FOMO trend again to wake up bitcoin. The Month of October is soon to begin, and that will be the last quarter for 2019, we should pump again just like before. The king of all coins should stand up high above all so we can see its good foundation and it can also wake up the whales and believe on bitcoin again.

I am not good to analyze the chart as the other, but I only think that the price will be hard to down below than $5k. I feel that will make miners disappointed and we need them to help confirm the transaction. So I only think that the next moment that might happen, the price can go slightly increase in more than $12k and next higher price. But I think there will be any correction of the price that could happen before it can rise so high.

I dont want Bitcoin itself to be negative but I dont see the price is the determiner of its progress exactly, if buyers need the price to go lower then its a positive if we do so.   All that matters in the end is the protocol is progressing and the population of users is expanding, its the job of the market to provide the best price to enable those things to happen and if we need to be lower then so be it.
   Business done is more important then the speculative profits of holders really, I think thats how it will go but every person cannot help to be biased to what would benefit them.   There should be a bias to the upside because shorting does involve borrowing somebody elses BTC which makes that short a future buyer, the balance is the power lies with the holders so long as BTC is a positive practical service or asset in society and it likely is.  
   Competition from FIAT itself is in decline (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4292945-fed-loses-control-benchmark-interest-repo-rates-roof?lift_email_rec=false) imo but thats a long game to play out.

https://i.imgur.com/S6zvSR3g.png

Seems this situation is familiar from last year and my guess is more sideways action so that everybody is wrong.   A simple break up or down beyond what seems to be fairly well defined trends doesnt seem to be a gift we will receive.

I feel like I am a pleb myself, I didn't get into bitcoin because of money or anything else, I have lived almost all my life in online world and I have made a ton of money in every game I played so I assumed it would be easy to make bitcoins as well and I was kinda right (made a ton of bitcoins 5-6 years ago and now making a decent living today as well) and I wanted a currency I can use globally online without using my credit card.

It gave me the freedom to do whatever I want with my money without worrying about laws which is not all true but I still live my life like it is.

Hence, right now I am not really wise about trading and all that but I am not getting manipulated by whales neither, I am somewhere in between where I can do some silly thing that others may call me idiot for but I do it because I want to, not because others manipulate me to do.

Most people are probably looking at the triangle that you drew and most don't look at moving averages in Crypto. There are way too many averages to consider and I don't think its a reliable indicator. I think the triangle will be a good indicator however you can't just trade it when it breaks to the upside or downside because I am betting we will get some type of fake move before the real move.

Since we got these massive dumps which are all getting bought up, I think we will eventually break the $9100 and hopefully it will get bought up while trapping a few short sellers. Maybe people got their stops right below the $9000 and many got sell-stops and trailing stops if that area breaks. What is important is for $9K to hold and not head towards the $7K area.

Still feeling bullish about this triangle. ;D

Same. Just watch out for a classic head-hake first. Shorts are rising but still unimpressive, and longs keep piling on. Bulls don't seem ready to break out either. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shakeout like this first before snapping back up like a rubber band:

https://i.imgur.com/9lKYEaj.png
http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

If it is bitcoin, I have always been bullish about the coin, because prior to now, I have never expected the price to have stabilized around $9k and $10k, I still don’t know the factor that led bitcoin out of the bullish market that is not strong enough to lead other coins out of the bearish market, from my statement here, it shows that I am only bullish about bitcoin and altcoin is still a little bit doubtful as I really don’t know the fate of altcoins.

There have been so many factors that ought to have assisted in bringing them out of their bearish market, even recently when a factor unknown to us tried to bring them out, they still plunged back to their red lane. it is only the king of crypto that has really tried for us this year as I never thought that we could have even reached this stage, if I was to tell you what I foresee for September before the increase, it was $6000.

Not trying to scare anyone, but the chart looks terrible


https://i.imgur.com/VbHIY4V.png


I do not see bitcoin anywhere but 6k after this break out and the 5SMA crossing the 20SMA on the weekly, to me I see two scenarios as of now.

1-Drop to 6k and consolidate there for a while before going to ATH
2-Enter a bear market for another year or so , re-test 3k make  a double bottom and then start another bull cycle.


These two scenarios are invalidated if the price does close again above 20SMA on the weekly.


another more concerning view can be found on the monthly chart, the monthly candle will close today and these three black crows are very scary


https://i.imgur.com/fJzc9xh.png

As far as day trading is concerned, it's now safer to short the market , a retrace to the 20SMA and 5SMA area (9300$-9600$) on the weekly chart will be a good chance to short/sell bitcoin , until the chart tells us otherwise.

Stay calm, don't panic just follow the chart.

Or better to buy as much of the dip as your savings/salary can allow, and HODL in my opinion. Surely it's the superior strategy to make superior returns?

Buy the dip where? Here? $6,000? It makes a pretty big difference. You could possibly get 20-30% more coins by waiting. Much more if we're actually entering another bear market.....

I agree with him that it seems like "sell the bounce" time. $9,000s or a wick above $10K if we're lucky.

Now. The strategy is to do dollar cost averaging while it goes down. But tough HODLING ahead, your patience WILL be tested.


Zoom out.

I was looking at the monthly chart this morning and thought of your post. There are sort of three black crows, although it's difficult to describe them as long-bodied candlesticks.

More importantly, what about the three white soldiers that came directly before?

https://i.imgur.com/swXKRjS.png

I think we need more evidence to declare a bear market. In fact, it still looks like a bull flag at logarithmic scale.

Worst case, I think the market will capitulate to the 0.705-0.786 area before bouncing back to the $9,000s in similar fashion to the 2018 crash. Then the market will decide between bull or bear for the long term.

I am not sure how do you use the three candle set-up, but to me I only take it seriously when it shows reversal of trend direction, the three white soldiers you show in your chart were present in a natural trend direction (up) so they are kind of irrelevant, the real three white soldiers were the candles of Feb,March and April , and they worked out very well, the market went up more than 150% after April candle closed, these three black crows I am pointing out has every characteristic that determines a trend reversal

1-They came up after about a movement of 315% to the upside
2-The wicks show strong rejection to the down side
3-RSI was very close to critical a resistance on the monthly (67)

and by the way, the best way to use the three set-up candle is along side with RSI , at least based on my personal experience.


Do you remmeber my topic (ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5087271.msg48771362#msg48771362)) ?

I have been taking the cloud very seriously, and guess where we at now?

https://i.imgur.com/FHPffyD.png

According to history, we must test the top of the cloud before making any higher highs, and guess where at is ?6500$ , does that match your Fib 0.705?

The cloud also tells another story , it says , bear/sideways market till 11/11/2019 , this is based on the fact that until we pass the ichimoku resistance, there should no movement to the upside, check 2016 you will get a better clue.

Again out of all these analysis, I still stand by the 20SMA on the weekly , and I still take this as a bear market until it's broken to the upside.

Three white soldiers is not simply three green candles in a row. Long-bodied candles are vital to the definition. So is the requirement to close above the previous candle's high. In both cases, this wasn't seen until April.

Likewise, the July and August candles are clearly dojis, the opposite of long-bodied candles. The August candle also did not exceed the low of July, another reasons it's technically not three black crows.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_black_crows.asp


Definitely cause for concern, but there's too little historic data to be confident about that.

It is not all speculations in the market that comes from a genuine analysis, when you see someone that really predicted genuinely, you will know because those one do predict with breakdown of the analysis that they do and when you see someone who is just predicting based on instinct, it is also easy to know them because they are the type that just speaks value without actually backing it up with any analysis which I can tell you that majority of the people that we have in the market are all speculating based on instincts which is why we see that majority of them is actually not very much accurate and some of them don't even happen at all.

I don't just listen much to speculation, I just watch out of fundamentals that will still keep me in the loop about the development of Bitcoin.

It woke up finally  ;D ;)

Now it just needs to get out of bed  ;D

@mikeywith, you should continue to give us your TA prediction, it's a good thing to see some perspectives regarding market charts .
Since bitcoin has a bullish movement two days ago, what do you think about the next movement? will it still drop to $6500 or so? or bitcoin will reach over $10K by next month 11/11/2019?

I actually thought the last analysis wasn't too silly, and I was also expecting 6500 really, even if it wasn't going to affect how I'd be doing my bitcoin buys (I'm a faithful dollar-cost averager trucking along happily).

But I suppose history isn't proven wrong even with the past 2 days of happenings? As in, major bottom signalled before short squeeze?

TA should still be unchanged too, especially now we see pullbacks so quick after 10k.