In my
last analysis I talked about how we were suppose to test the 20SMA on the weekly chart after closing below the 5SMA
Using the BLX chart, you can see that from 2010 all the way to 2018, every time we had a weekly close below the 5 SMA we simply drop all the way to the 20 SMA.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FuLjSTn2.png&t=665&c=wYCT0jm0RQ7ZhQ)
The only mistake I made was estimating at which point that test would be, and I did mentioned this
The 20 SMA is hanging around 7200$ but by the time we get there, it should be at 7500-8000
fortunately for some people and unfortunately for others, price stayed almost leveled and the 20SMA managed to get to 9797$ and today was the actual test on the 20SMA on the weekly chart.
we had a wick all the way down to 9.5k which i excepted to be even more severe, but that does not really matter anyhow, let's now view the current situation and explain to you why do I think that by next week and probably for a good number of years we will most likely never be able buy bitcoin for 9500$.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmrD4tYb.png&t=665&c=h4AMFCZkLRUy1A)
By looking at the weekly chart on the BLX chart ( I would prefer you open the chart and have the 20 and 5 SMA on the weekly chart to get a better view as the image is not clear enough)
We see from the chart, that the 20SMA is the most accurate SMA which differentiates the bear or bull market condition, and there is no debate here that we are in a bull market now.
Another thing you can clearly see from the chart , after everytime the 5 and 20 SMAs get squeezed to the point that they touch one another, it's usually followed by a good run to the upside in a bull market, and to the downside in a bear market.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMBnY0ST.png&t=665&c=-6iph0F9rDxR4Q)
Zooming in the chart we can see the squeeze, the 5SMA is at 10098$ while the 20SMA is at 9797$ , by next week the latter should be at higher price and the 5SMA will probably be at the lower price and they will meet at the same price level probably 9900$ or so.
in the past everytime we had this squeeze, price gradually and slowly increase for 4-5 weeks and then takes a spaceship to the moon , we also know that whenever price touches the 20SMA after hitting the bottom ,it marks the cheapest price bitcoin is ever going to be.
How does this scenario becomes invalid?
1-5SMA crosses the 20SMA to the downside
2-A weekly candle closes below 9797$
If these 2 things happen, I am not sure how to describe the situation with any other words but "tragic".