Bitcoin Forum

Hello Everyone,

I suppose everyone is well aware that the next Bitcoin halving will be around May 2020 which makes it 7 months before the halving.

Previous two halvings happened on 2012-11-28 and 2016-07-09.

Looking 7 months before the halving in 2012 and 2016 I don't see a parallel for the current situation. I'm not sure how much of a market we can talk about in April 2012 but the December of 2015 probably was a valid and well quite developed market, yet I don't see any huge drops around December 2015 (between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-09 it went from $501 to $297 but back then this was still considered "normal" I suppose).

So how is it different now? What actually triggered the sell-off and why it happened?

• Is it just random walk and it will recover in 2 weeks?
• Is it the futures market swinging it?
• Is it the deteriorating economic conditions?
• Something else?

To me this looks like the sell-off during November 2018 when we went from $6300 to $3100 in matter of 4 weeks which made absolutely no sense to me either.

Any thoughts especially with references are greatly appreciated.

Reference: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

it is all about the percentage-wise size of any movement not the absolute size. from $501 to $297 is a 40% drop so it can not be considered "normal" really even in bitcoin market. so if you wanted to compare it to this month's drop it is half that size.
in any case i don't think we can make this kind of comparison on small levels. we can compare them with a bigger perspective meaning expecting the big hyped up rise 1-2 months prior to the halving, a mini bubble by the time of halving, its burst right on halving and slow rise 1 month after it.

It is still far away.
So what could be the reason behind all this dump?
In my own humble opinion, it could be just for making ready for the next bull run.
They want it cheap, but they are having a hard time making people bite the FUD or the dump which they have done. Manipulating the bitcoin market could really be a difficult task. ;D

It's more "normal" back then because volatility was expectedly very high, but it's pretty much the same today. Liquidity might got higher, but it's still almost just as volatile.

One thing you should remember: regardless how much bitcoin is being generated per block, heck, it could be .01 BTC per block, but if there isn't enough demand to clear off the sell offers on exchanges, don't really expect a price rise. Though supply is definitely a huge factor, demand is still the biggest factor.

Every cycle is different. Even if we're in another bullish cycle, it won't look the same as the previous ones.


Why was it normal back then but not now? The Bitcoin markets may be more mature now by some metrics but they are still illiquid and volatile. This dump looks totally normal to me, though not exactly what I hoped to see.


Bakkt "sell the news" event, CME futures settlement. In technical terms, the downside break of the triangle triggered sellers, which broke supports in the $9,000s. That support break caused a huge cascade of stop losses, resulting in the crash.


Maybe. I think it's unlikely to play out exactly the same way but time will tell.

Volatility remains one of the best known hallmarks of Bitcoin and what we are experiencing these past few days are very much manifestation of this characteristic. There are a lot of ideas and speculations as to what really triggered this recent slump but for me it is all about demand and supply. Let's hope that the pullback is in fact a preparation for a good bull run in 2020. It would be interested how Bitcoin will eventually close its price this December but for sure there is a slim chance of a "moon" type run in the remaining months of 2019.

There are few reasons for it, first of all the whales can make a ton of money from bitcoin going down now. Short futures created that option that didn't existed back in the day in 2015 nor in 2012 which is why I feel like this is the first time they can abuse the market by just shorting and then selling all their coins. They know what will happen when they sell, they have enough bitcoins to drop the market, they know their power so they can literally 100x leverage the market and short right before they sell all their coins and drop the price.

Aside from that there are panic sellers, in 2015 and 2012 there wasn't this much people and money involved, price was lower, now there are more people with more risks so they get scared a lot easier this time around. Those look like the biggest reasons.

You should take longer period of time and not just look at 7 months before halving. Look what happened a year until half year or a year and a half until halving. You will see that start of this year from March until June was extremely positive for Bitcoins price. You could say that price was manipulated to grow more then it should. Now that is getting corrected.

Your confusion comes from the fact that you are trying to use the past to interpret the future and you expect the markets to move in the same exact way and things do not work like that, the circumstances that happened back in the day are not the same ones that are happening right now, it is better to just watch the price and respond to its movements instead of trying to make sense of all of this since there so many factors to take into consideration that make impossible to draw parallels between those events.

It was not a random price drop,it was highly trapped by the price manipulators to setup a price region of fice digit figures for a while then make it to 20% price drop within days of time frame,but nothing yet too serious for the long term holders since they might be holding bitcoins for atleast from $3000 region in the same year so we are above 200% ROI in this year itself.

You did not count in manipulation.

My opinion is that the main difference between the previous markets and previous halvings and what we have now is futures. Back then when big players wanted to make money on fear they had to spread FUD. They would exit their BTC positions making people anxious that there's something the big players know, something that is about to happen. This made them ready to dump, and then whales would put out FUD like about some countries like Korea banning bitcoin. That they have insider information from the government. People dumped whales bought and profited.

Now they don't have to FUD they just put USD into BTC futures and when it's high they short it like now when it was at 10k and when it's low they long it like they did at 3k. There's big money to be made especially when you liquidate idiots who trade with 10x leverage.

It would vary all in demand because this would work on the very basic principle of economics.If we cant see those
high number(demands) then we cant expect for a price rise.People do keep speculating the upcoming halving event
possibilities.We cant deny that we have seen or experience the history of price rise of btc after these events but there
were no guarantees that we would able to hit it up once again.

The sell off during November-December 2018 was due to the war between BCH and BSV. Some Bitcoin holders sold of their coins to support either of the two faction. And there's also the miners as well, who take sides and shift their gear to either Ver's BCH or CSW BSV.

Of course we can't really say that the first or the second halvening will be the same next year. We could see a massive drop of 20% today and then recover 10% or more in the following weeks. Investors are getting smarter every year and there could be irrational buyers, but they will be in a rude awakening. My point is it's hard to understand how the market really moves and most of the time it invalidate all the factors that we thought are the reasons behind the downward spiral or a massive spike prior or after the halvening event.

I don't like the idea of try to predict the future looking for patterns in the past, it doesn't make sense for me
The current market is totally different of the past, and people sold BTC and price falled, just that, no conspirations, no theories...

Actually i am little forget how price move before 2016 halving, but from what i see it is increased steady but sure until it's ATH. And not pump and dump in short time that come (correct me if i am wrong). That is why price of bitcoin stay longer in high price and then back to this price for now. Maybe dump and pump is something that usually happen and people only need to know the pattern so can make any decision with their investment from it.

Past behavior does not predict future behavior. Btc could go well hit 20 k tomorrow or dump to 1k. Both are highly unlikely but you can never know with bitcoin.  Personally I put some around from 6 and up to 7.5 k just in case it drops more. Just enjoy the ride, buy some with the cost average cost method, be patient and hope for the best  ;D

If you want to have a statistical calculation you need to have a model to have a reference on how the market will move and we have a small data available as this is a new market, we cannot expect the market to move the same all the time but it is the only reference we can have on how the market used to perform in the past during those situations  ;).

It is highly unlikely to happen just like that. The past behavior will give you an idea on how the market will perform, it cannot be an accurate prediction but you can use that as a reference.

We don't have much of data as mentioned. This is a new market which is very yound. Just ten years have passed from its existence, by this time where it has reached is big. Upon the same we cannot make the predictions, we can take some references from the earlier market movements and predict the future. In this act even the experts predictions won't be cent percent perfect.

Why do people always want to make things complicated?
I mean 20% drop before the next halving is an issue or what?
We have seen it gain more than 20% in the last couple of months surely a 7 months period before halving would also make a great up trend .
We couldn't know what is the real reason behind this 20% price drop because there are so many reason that could be used to it.

Current 20% price drop isn't even in touch with upcoming halving. To be fair I really don't like current situation and kills some hopes in me and also think does the same in a lot of people too and it affect market price even hardly (I still try to keep btc instead of selling them). But if we remember from past, there was some falls before halving and after that it was stable 600$ for a while which killed also hope in some people of further rise because they were expecting huge and immediate rise after halving but as we see it still happened, wasn't quick but rise was huge, yeah, it started from 600$, become 1000, then 2000 and this growth continued, continued until 20K usd which is a huge achievement. I hope we will repeat that again and even with higher price, let's wait for some months, halving will answer our questions.

Some popular analysts said that the halving is not yet priced in. This means that people who sold and are selling now don't focus on halving yet and make bitcoin cheaper by being scared of the unknown because there's nothing bad going on. They are reacting to other people reacting to somebody dumping. Like a crowd that starts running when they see a small group running scared and screaming.

Halving is not something that could increase the price of bitcoin. It will do it. We don't know when and by how much but it will.

I don't see any reason to believe that the long term outlook for BTC has changed. I'm still bullish on BTC's long term prospects, given that its fundamentals of decentralisation, transaction processing ability and overall adoption has only improved and there is no sign of regression.

It is an interesting conundrum. We haven't seen this big of a correction in a bullish run up and I've been pondering this issue as well, but I think the main reason why the pullback this time was much more significant is due to a small bubble forming at the peak of the bull run at around $14k. That price point was unfortunately unsustainable just a few months into the recovery, which I think explains the adjustments after that.

It's certainly nothing like the 2018 bear market. I wouldn't even be sure that we are in one, right now. Sentiment is low, yes, but people still expect markets to be bullish for halving.

Halving is not a magical event that means the price of Bitcoin will increase before or after that. This is something that simply reduces the block reward by 50%, and in the long term that means less new mined coins on the market.

What's the reason for the price drop is in the domain of speculation, so you can pick what seems most realistic to you.

 - Bakkt failed to meet the expectations of many people, so when they see price will no go up, they start to sell.
 - Price was holding too long at the same level ($10k), and as always if there is no power for up, it needs to go down.
 - FUD about some big mining farm is burn/hashrate is down for 40%.

It's actually very easy for some people to manipulate the crypto market, just by buying/selling big amounts of coins in a short period of time. The reason is always profit, I don't think this drop is an exception either.

Yes, there is no guarantee that things that happened in the past months or years can also be happening next year in almost identical manner but  data we can gather from the past can be serving as a guide on probabilities and that is why we can be creating some models. It is like predicting the future based on the past though again there is no formula that can exactly tell us what can be though this is much better than to just wildly guess the possible outcome. We have to always remember though that Bitcoin has this habit of being unpredictable at times so we should not be shocked to see some good and even bad surprises along the way leading to the scheduled having in 2020.

The thing that I just know is that every year of bitcoin is always better than the previous year, so I am not afraid of bitcoin tomorrow, provided that I don’t invest at peak period, then all these fluctuations that we see now are just child's, play, when the real bull run comes, we will see less of decrease and more of an increase in the value of bitcoin and in the value of our investment.

I do not even stress myself predicting bitcoin since I am not much of a regular trader, I buy bitcoin when it’s down and then hold till there is news of bull run when I can decide to sell my coin at the goal price that I have set for myself. The bull run of bitcoin will come, there is absolutely no doubt about that, we just need to keep our fingers crossed and keep watching as things really would unfold.

I think the current price is an opportunity for them to buy a train ticket, I think that history will be repeated again where a year before and after halving bitcoin there is always a gradual rise in prices, what I think now is to look at the charts at the end of 2015 and maybe things it will also happen at the end of 2019, so let's look at it later because it's all just a matter of time

the focus now is to introduce bitcoin deeper to all people, it is important to make them feel safe investing in bitcoin

This happens because investors love to give explanations to things they do not understand, the truth is that we will never know for sure why the price crashed so abruptly but it does not matter, what you should focus on is what was your performance during that period? Did you lose that much money or you got out and your losses were way smaller than that? Depending on your answer you will either have to adjust your strategy to protect you from such crashes or you could keep investing in the same way knowing you are protected from such negative moves.

The "train ticket" can be bought at various levels without losing too much long term growth potential. It doesn't really matter whether you buy today at $8000 or tomorrow at $10,000. If your focus is to see the price reach $50,000 or even $100,000 the few thousand you pay more or less isn't going to make much of a difference. Just make sure you buy. That's all.

The focus is to educate people on the workings of Bitcoin. The more people know about it, the more they understand what the actual value is that Bitcoin brings to the table, and thus are less likely to sell on a whim. We have enough get rich fast morons in this space already.

On top of that, investing in ANY asset comes at a risk, so it's not fair to expect people to feel safe investing in Bitcoin. Safe investments don't exist.

Holding for longer time is profitable, you can closely monitor and see to where the market will go. You don't need to panic with this current situation inside the market, this temporary fall will bounce back and bring all good coins to rise up together with bitcoin
Right now, if you have added money to spare inside, the current value is good for investing your money. Though its needs to have a good research before investing in to protect your money.

Halving will result with price going up for sure, there is no way of bitcoin not going up after the halving, I don't care how long it will take, it can be months before the halving, it can be right around halving (a bit early a bit late) or it can be weeks later than halving but if you know what halving is and what it means for the seller side of the bitcoin world then you will know that bitcoin will have to go up.

That will be the only way miners will make up the difference, if they can't mine 1800 coins and only mine 900 then the price can't be $8k but has to be $16k, of course it doesn't have to go up that much, just doubling the cost of one bitcoin mining is enough, I don't know how much it costs to mine one bitcoin but I am pretty sure its not free hence we will go up for sure.

It is a great deal for everyone who has money stashed aside who can buy bitcoins right now, but for people who don't have any money to buy bitcoins or even don't have any money so they have to cash out (like me) then it is a terrible timing. I mean we all know bitcoin will eventually go up, its just a matter of time for bitcoin to skyrocket, we are just waiting for that period, but since we can't proof any of this to places that we have to pay, it makes no sense to keep it and we are force to either cash out at this price or can't buy bitcoins.

I remember vividly at one time bitcoin was around 900 dollars and I told my wife it will be above $3k soon and it did (well it went to $20k but I had no idea it would do that :D ) but we had zero because I couldn't keep any of my money to buy bitcoins, had to spend for regular life stuff.

Correct, investors concentrate too much in trying to get in the market at the perfect moment that they do not realize that all the effort they are putting into this activity could be used for something else if they just accepted the fact that is almost impossible and the important matter is they get in the market, I have heard many stories of people that during 2017 expected the price to fall down before they got in the market and they never did missing one of the spectacular bull runs of any market in history.

I have recently found an analysis by mikeywith that the chart may be similar to the previous movement of Bitcoin and I think he has a point but to make this analysis come true the price may need to plummet down to $7700 USD but he is still confirming it and right now the 20% drop may go forward to that mark.

And this is his facts about the top bull markets

1-A correction all the way down below that 0.786 (blue)  > Done
2-A rejection from the 0.618 > Skipped
3-A rejection from the 0.382 (14k) > Done
4-A retest of the 0.618  at around 7700$ > still confirming...
5-A retest of the 0.5 level (9900$)  > unknown but must happen this month
6-A steady move to ATL ATH in 5 months > unknown

the 4-A may be coming to happen however if the price would still go down to $7700 USD but like I said he is still confirming this and after that this Month will go back to the $9900 level again, I don't know about you guys but I guess it is coming to picture, And I am just waiting until the 2020 halving.

7 months is a long time, I thought any rally or continued rise from July onwards was incorrect and Im happy to see the market adjusts and revises previous prices.    People want sunshine always but thats how you get a desert  :P    A good mix of sun and rain, up and down is how a market will grow far better.   Though it might seem not so good the price pulls back, try not to see things so immediately.   If we could just take the yearly price or the quarterly it would help to iron out some of these speculative highs and lows and stop people obsessing on gains lost.


  I think China had banned Bitcoin around that point, probably that news echoed and reappeared a few times and no doubt China would ban pretty much everything not paying them a personal tax if given a chance.   It gave some reason for harsh pull backs, I dont have the chart to produce but Im fairly sure there was opportunity for optimism even though it was a big % fall.   Maybe its best to wait for afterwards and observe how the price builds.  
  In Feb this year we had a series of building lows, all of course were close to the ground but it was gaining and in that point I should have been more optimistic.  I do think we'll repeat that again, gaining lows a subtle bull ascending.  First we might fall some more of course, wait till at least 2020 and maybe post China new year till speculating on halvening.

It could be a strategy.
That is one thing that we should consider. If timed right then we might ride the wave and make a lot of money with it.

They might be trying to dump bitcoin and then buy at a cheaper price and then sell again after the halving.
This strategy had been done before.
Hype will come specially for the FOMO.

did China ever ban bitcoin?!!!
i haven't seen any reliable news that makes me believe they have banned it. i can find news that goes back to 2013 that has been saying "China banned bitcoin" but in reality they have never done such a thing. they closed down exchanges, shut down big scams, prohibited banks from investing in bitcoin,... and things like that which people interpret as a "ban"!

Good luck with trying to time the market. It's a lesson hard learned by a lot of people. This year alone you can see that neither the bull nor the "bear" were foreseen by any of the so-called experts whale groups, super trader and super signal channels. None could ever have predicted it and so none timed it well.

Speculate as much as you want but just save yourself the pain and dollar cost average.

bitcoin can eise by 20 percent in one day ; sell now is a risk because halving coming , no one can sell and miss big profit because of 10 or 20 percent
Bitcoin is getting stronger after dump of today
Prices will be pumped to 9000 --- 9500 coming weeks no need to fear next days

Comparing the past halving events, price going up would occur after close to a year. The price would consolidate at a steady line for that year and will go up gradually towards the end of the year 2020. As for the 20% drop, I doubt it would happen though. Past events have shown that bitcoin prices before the halving actually went up, showing continuous growth in price up to a year after the halving itself. I have no reason to believe that it wouldn't do so this time. Sadly Bakkt launch was a sad day. Price could've pushed to 9000$ but the disappointment was the only result in the end. It even dipped down a bit after their launch.

The prices are down not from 7 months but from last one and half year and still have not grown properly.Whales have been benefited from these dumps and now the prices seems to be rising again and heading towards $9000 and we might see bull run in the market soon.So if you want to invest its the time because prices will surge soon before 2020 and reach atleast $12k.So hope for its betterment.

What nonsense do you write, this year is not start good, but from April we have big jump from $4000 to almost $14 000 - where you see in this "not grown properly"? I know most of the people just wish to BTC hit $50k or more so they can take profit and move away, but most do not have the knowledge or patience to wait for that moment.

I wonder where you see $9000, price is just go under $8000 and it is rather uncertain which direction it will go. The only thing I agree with is that time is good for investing, but it is possible that the price of BTC will go down further as some predict.

even though all hope to BAAKT, but the reality we face is very heavy,
Bitcoin fell by $ 4000 from July until now, if we expect it to be OK, but don't let that mistake happen again! trade wisely  ;)

I myself bitcoin predictions will not go down to $ 8k but the real is already under $ 8k but it's true you said also bitcoin will miss some people's predictions, but I will wait down to $ 7500 then I will buy Bitcoin for the future before halving occurs.