20% price drop 7 months before the May 2020 halving?

[pixie85]

Some popular analysts said that the halving is not yet priced in. This means that people who sold and are selling now don't focus on halving yet and make bitcoin cheaper by being scared of the unknown because there's nothing bad going on. They are reacting to other people reacting to somebody dumping. Like a crowd that starts running when they see a small group running scared and screaming.

Halving is not something that could increase the price of bitcoin. It will do it. We don't know when and by how much but it will.

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[magneto]

Is it just random walk and it will recover in 2 weeks?
Is it the futures market swinging it?
Is it the deteriorating economic conditions?
Something else?

To me this looks like the sell-off during November 2018 when we went from $6300 to $3100 in matter of 4 weeks which made absolutely no sense to me either.

I don't see any reason to believe that the long term outlook for BTC has changed. I'm still bullish on BTC's long term prospects, given that its fundamentals of decentralisation, transaction processing ability and overall adoption has only improved and there is no sign of regression.

It is an interesting conundrum. We haven't seen this big of a correction in a bullish run up and I've been pondering this issue as well, but I think the main reason why the pullback this time was much more significant is due to a small bubble forming at the peak of the bull run at around $14k. That price point was unfortunately unsustainable just a few months into the recovery, which I think explains the adjustments after that.

It's certainly nothing like the 2018 bear market. I wouldn't even be sure that we are in one, right now. Sentiment is low, yes, but people still expect markets to be bullish for halving.

[Lucius]

~snip~

Halving is not a magical event that means the price of Bitcoin will increase before or after that. This is something that simply reduces the block reward by 50%, and in the long term that means less new mined coins on the market.

What's the reason for the price drop is in the domain of speculation, so you can pick what seems most realistic to you.

 - Bakkt failed to meet the expectations of many people, so when they see price will no go up, they start to sell.
 - Price was holding too long at the same level ($10k), and as always if there is no power for up, it needs to go down.
 - FUD about some big mining farm is burn/hashrate is down for 40%.

It's actually very easy for some people to manipulate the crypto market, just by buying/selling big amounts of coins in a short period of time. The reason is always profit, I don't think this drop is an exception either.

[CryptoBry]

you are trying to use the past to interpret the future and you expect the markets to move in the same exact way and things do not work like that

If you want to have a statistical calculation you need to have a model to have a reference on how the market will move and we have a small data available as this is a new market, we cannot expect the market to move the same all the time but it is the only reference we can have on how the market used to perform in the past during those situations  .

Past behavior does not predict future behavior. Btc could go well hit 20 k tomorrow or dump to 1k.

It is highly unlikely to happen just like that. The past behavior will give you an idea on how the market will perform, it cannot be an accurate prediction but you can use that as a reference.

Yes, there is no guarantee that things that happened in the past months or years can also be happening next year in almost identical manner but  data we can gather from the past can be serving as a guide on probabilities and that is why we can be creating some models. It is like predicting the future based on the past though again there is no formula that can exactly tell us what can be though this is much better than to just wildly guess the possible outcome. We have to always remember though that Bitcoin has this habit of being unpredictable at times so we should not be shocked to see some good and even bad surprises along the way leading to the scheduled having in 2020.

[darewaller]

there is no guarantee that things that happened in the past months or years can also be happening next year in almost identical manner but  data we can gather from the past can be serving as a guide on probabilities and that is why we can be creating some models. It is like predicting the future based on the past though again there is no formula that can exactly tell us what can be though this is much better than to just wildly guess the possible outcome. We have to always remember though that Bitcoin has this habit of being unpredictable at times so we should not be shocked to see some good and even bad surprises along the way leading to the scheduled having in 2020.

The thing that I just know is that every year of bitcoin is always better than the previous year, so I am not afraid of bitcoin tomorrow, provided that I don’t invest at peak period, then all these fluctuations that we see now are just child's, play, when the real bull run comes, we will see less of decrease and more of an increase in the value of bitcoin and in the value of our investment.

I do not even stress myself predicting bitcoin since I am not much of a regular trader, I buy bitcoin when it’s down and then hold till there is news of bull run when I can decide to sell my coin at the goal price that I have set for myself. The bull run of bitcoin will come, there is absolutely no doubt about that, we just need to keep our fingers crossed and keep watching as things really would unfold.

[piebeyb]

I think the current price is an opportunity for them to buy a train ticket, I think that history will be repeated again where a year before and after halving bitcoin there is always a gradual rise in prices, what I think now is to look at the charts at the end of 2015 and maybe things it will also happen at the end of 2019, so let's look at it later because it's all just a matter of time

the focus now is to introduce bitcoin deeper to all people, it is important to make them feel safe investing in bitcoin

[Silberman]

Why do people always want to make things complicated?
I mean 20% drop before the next halving is an issue or what?
We have seen it gain more than 20% in the last couple of months surely a 7 months period before halving would also make a great up trend .
We couldn't know what is the real reason behind this 20% price drop because there are so many reason that could be used to it.

This happens because investors love to give explanations to things they do not understand, the truth is that we will never know for sure why the price crashed so abruptly but it does not matter, what you should focus on is what was your performance during that period? Did you lose that much money or you got out and your losses were way smaller than that? Depending on your answer you will either have to adjust your strategy to protect you from such crashes or you could keep investing in the same way knowing you are protected from such negative moves.

[1Referee]

I think the current price is an opportunity for them to buy a train ticket

The "train ticket" can be bought at various levels without losing too much long term growth potential. It doesn't really matter whether you buy today at $8000 or tomorrow at $10,000. If your focus is to see the price reach $50,000 or even $100,000 the few thousand you pay more or less isn't going to make much of a difference. Just make sure you buy. That's all.

the focus now is to introduce bitcoin deeper to all people, it is important to make them feel safe investing in bitcoin

The focus is to educate people on the workings of Bitcoin. The more people know about it, the more they understand what the actual value is that Bitcoin brings to the table, and thus are less likely to sell on a whim. We have enough get rich fast morons in this space already.

On top of that, investing in ANY asset comes at a risk, so it's not fair to expect people to feel safe investing in Bitcoin. Safe investments don't exist.

[Fredomago]

For sure this is just matter if time price will refined again it will be high once again but right now fall has almost stopped.  We can’t force any one to invest but we can tell them about the benefit and show them the actual profit we are earning from crypto. Holding is profitable this time keep investing and holding for this price fall opportunities.

Holding for longer time is profitable, you can closely monitor and see to where the market will go. You don't need to panic with this current situation inside the market, this temporary fall will bounce back and bring all good coins to rise up together with bitcoin
Right now, if you have added money to spare inside, the current value is good for investing your money. Though its needs to have a good research before investing in to protect your money.

[davinchi]

Halving will result with price going up for sure, there is no way of bitcoin not going up after the halving, I don't care how long it will take, it can be months before the halving, it can be right around halving (a bit early a bit late) or it can be weeks later than halving but if you know what halving is and what it means for the seller side of the bitcoin world then you will know that bitcoin will have to go up.

That will be the only way miners will make up the difference, if they can't mine 1800 coins and only mine 900 then the price can't be $8k but has to be $16k, of course it doesn't have to go up that much, just doubling the cost of one bitcoin mining is enough, I don't know how much it costs to mine one bitcoin but I am pretty sure its not free hence we will go up for sure.

[coinfinger]

It is a great deal for everyone who has money stashed aside who can buy bitcoins right now, but for people who don't have any money to buy bitcoins or even don't have any money so they have to cash out (like me) then it is a terrible timing. I mean we all know bitcoin will eventually go up, its just a matter of time for bitcoin to skyrocket, we are just waiting for that period, but since we can't proof any of this to places that we have to pay, it makes no sense to keep it and we are force to either cash out at this price or can't buy bitcoins.

I remember vividly at one time bitcoin was around 900 dollars and I told my wife it will be above $3k soon and it did (well it went to $20k but I had no idea it would do that ) but we had zero because I couldn't keep any of my money to buy bitcoins, had to spend for regular life stuff.

[Silberman]

I think the current price is an opportunity for them to buy a train ticket

The "train ticket" can be bought at various levels without losing too much long term growth potential. It doesn't really matter whether you buy today at $8000 or tomorrow at $10,000. If your focus is to see the price reach $50,000 or even $100,000 the few thousand you pay more or less isn't going to make much of a difference. Just make sure you buy. That's all.

snip

Correct, investors concentrate too much in trying to get in the market at the perfect moment that they do not realize that all the effort they are putting into this activity could be used for something else if they just accepted the fact that is almost impossible and the important matter is they get in the market, I have heard many stories of people that during 2017 expected the price to fall down before they got in the market and they never did missing one of the spectacular bull runs of any market in history.

[YuginKadoya]

I have recently found an analysis by mikeywith that the chart may be similar to the previous movement of Bitcoin and I think he has a point but to make this analysis come true the price may need to plummet down to $7700 USD but he is still confirming it and right now the 20% drop may go forward to that mark.

And this is his facts about the top bull markets

1-A correction all the way down below that 0.786 (blue)  > Done
2-A rejection from the 0.618 > Skipped
3-A rejection from the 0.382 (14k) > Done
4-A retest of the 0.618  at around 7700$ > still confirming...
5-A retest of the 0.5 level (9900$)  > unknown but must happen this month
6-A steady move to ATL ATH in 5 months > unknown

the 4-A may be coming to happen however if the price would still go down to $7700 USD but like I said he is still confirming this and after that this Month will go back to the $9900 level again, I don't know about you guys but I guess it is coming to picture, And I am just waiting until the 2020 halving.

[STT]

7 months is a long time, I thought any rally or continued rise from July onwards was incorrect and Im happy to see the market adjusts and revises previous prices.    People want sunshine always but thats how you get a desert      A good mix of sun and rain, up and down is how a market will grow far better.   Though it might seem not so good the price pulls back, try not to see things so immediately.   If we could just take the yearly price or the quarterly it would help to iron out some of these speculative highs and lows and stop people obsessing on gains lost.

which made absolutely no sense to me either.

  I think China had banned Bitcoin around that point, probably that news echoed and reappeared a few times and no doubt China would ban pretty much everything not paying them a personal tax if given a chance.   It gave some reason for harsh pull backs, I dont have the chart to produce but Im fairly sure there was opportunity for optimism even though it was a big % fall.   Maybe its best to wait for afterwards and observe how the price builds.  
  In Feb this year we had a series of building lows, all of course were close to the ground but it was gaining and in that point I should have been more optimistic.  I do think we'll repeat that again, gaining lows a subtle bull ascending.  First we might fall some more of course, wait till at least 2020 and maybe post China new year till speculating on halvening.

[danherbias07]

It could be a strategy.
That is one thing that we should consider. If timed right then we might ride the wave and make a lot of money with it.

They might be trying to dump bitcoin and then buy at a cheaper price and then sell again after the halving.
This strategy had been done before.
Hype will come specially for the FOMO.

[pooya87]

  I think China had banned Bitcoin around that point, probably that news echoed and reappeared a few times

did China ever ban bitcoin?!!!
i haven't seen any reliable news that makes me believe they have banned it. i can find news that goes back to 2013 that has been saying "China banned bitcoin" but in reality they have never done such a thing. they closed down exchanges, shut down big scams, prohibited banks from investing in bitcoin,... and things like that which people interpret as a "ban"!

[buwaytress]

It could be a strategy.
That is one thing that we should consider. If timed right then we might ride the wave and make a lot of money with it.

They might be trying to dump bitcoin and then buy at a cheaper price and then sell again after the halving.
This strategy had been done before.
Hype will come specially for the FOMO.

Good luck with trying to time the market. It's a lesson hard learned by a lot of people. This year alone you can see that neither the bull nor the "bear" were foreseen by any of the so-called experts whale groups, super trader and super signal channels. None could ever have predicted it and so none timed it well.

Speculate as much as you want but just save yourself the pain and dollar cost average.

[barota]

bitcoin can eise by 20 percent in one day ; sell now is a risk because halving coming , no one can sell and miss big profit because of 10 or 20 percent
Bitcoin is getting stronger after dump of today
Prices will be pumped to 9000 --- 9500 coming weeks no need to fear next days

[Wexnident]

Halving will result with price going up for sure, there is no way of bitcoin not going up after the halving, I don't care how long it will take, it can be months before the halving, it can be right around halving (a bit early a bit late) or it can be weeks later than halving but if you know what halving is and what it means for the seller side of the bitcoin world then you will know that bitcoin will have to go up.

That will be the only way miners will make up the difference, if they can't mine 1800 coins and only mine 900 then the price can't be $8k but has to be $16k, of course it doesn't have to go up that much, just doubling the cost of one bitcoin mining is enough, I don't know how much it costs to mine one bitcoin but I am pretty sure its not free hence we will go up for sure.

Comparing the past halving events, price going up would occur after close to a year. The price would consolidate at a steady line for that year and will go up gradually towards the end of the year 2020. As for the 20% drop, I doubt it would happen though. Past events have shown that bitcoin prices before the halving actually went up, showing continuous growth in price up to a year after the halving itself. I have no reason to believe that it wouldn't do so this time. Sadly Bakkt launch was a sad day. Price could've pushed to 9000$ but the disappointment was the only result in the end. It even dipped down a bit after their launch.

[SummerBliss]

The prices are down not from 7 months but from last one and half year and still have not grown properly.Whales have been benefited from these dumps and now the prices seems to be rising again and heading towards $9000 and we might see bull run in the market soon.So if you want to invest its the time because prices will surge soon before 2020 and reach atleast $12k.So hope for its betterment.