Bitcoin Forum

Q4!!!

*4th Quarter prediction game*  The year 2019 was interesting with UPs and DOWNs, and mainly a bullish trend, but where will we end the year??
                                               Do join this game and provide a good reasoned price guess.


what will the price be on December 31th (closing Q4 price) ......  00.00 CET  December 31th

The one guessing closest to the end price of that given date..... Wins 0.125BTC of me  (⬅ winner take that price )


-You can give your price until: 09-October-2019  13.00 CET

-to participate you must HAVE 10 MERIT and at least 50 ACTIVITY

-(once the price is on the LIST, it cannot be changed anymore, so think deep very DEEP before adding on ::) )

-BITSTAMP PRICE to be clear!!!

*Wanna make this Q4 game a little more interesting and HOPE for those that ADD a price for the game to provide some kind of thought/reasoning why to be around that price....., the ones that are able and can make some TA about there price..... would be very much appreciated as well.
So a reasoning (things that are happening....) or a TA or combined. :D

*Also for those that see some fun in it, a HAIKU would be nice as well :D

---> As I hope some fellow sources are not gonna let some good effort, thought, TA or Haiku go by unnoticed... ;D

Lets hope Q4 to be the most interesting one of 2019 and let us finish this year in style, BULL with me to the end of the year !!!!! and let one of the game be rewarded with a nice slice of BTC !!!!




PLEASE READ BEFORE YOU ADD YOUR PRICE, and if any questions just ask, THX and enjoy.
(*)behind a given members price = ----> that the member provided TA or thoughts on his chosen price range.
(H)behind a given members price= ----->that the member provided a Haiku.



Real time Leaderboard !!!


^
Thanks for creating this :D


 

Start of the list

1308       Yassin
2913       Khaos77
4765       Scheede
4780       tvplus006
5183       haloxon
5384       GrosWesh
5450       Biodom   *H
5660       makrospex
5850       Lakai01
6000       adaseb *
6111       xyz
6218       StartupAnalyst *
6370       Millionero *
6383       sgbett        *H
6400       Phil_S
6500       JSRAW                  H
6613       STT
6666       iwantapony
6755       Heisenberg_Hunter *
6820       Koal-84 *
6890       morvillz7z
7000       Globb0 *                    (previous winner)
7080       aundroid    *
7187       Spray.
7266       irsada
7375       dragonvslinux *
7510       illyiller            *H
7650       hatshepsut93
7777       rosezionjohn
7856       bakasabo
8000       marky89
8080       FractalUniverse*
8152       Real-Duke *
8250       1r0n1c *
8340       cabalism13
8412       LibertValance
8520       Iced
8642       wttbs
8765       ice18
8850       Harkorede
8880       leea-1334
8999       Agrawas
9050       squatter
9100       tyKiwanuka *
9200       HairyMaclairy *
9212       bucciarati
9315       ChrisPop
9449       stompix
9455       markdario112616 *
9599       jojo69
9666       Totscha
9722       trumpman
9800       rdluffy
9831       TopTort777
9876       Mbitr
9888       GreatArkansas *
9922       sirazimuth         H      (previous winner)
10,000    nutildah         H
10,050    asche                          [for sports no affect on members above en below]
10,101    mole0815
10,123    Icygreen           H
10,155    Rahar0 2
10,183    Reid
10,200    illinest
10,202    slaman29 *
10,209    exstasie  *                (previous winner)
10,232    Red-Apple
10,250    o48o        H
10,296    gentlemand *          (previous winner)
10,298    JanEmil
10,300    error08
10,327    bitmover
10,384    xhomerx10         H
10,455    rolling
10,518    inanilujimi
10,620    LogitechMouse
10,666    Eric Cartman
10,678    bitebits
10,750    pooya87 *
10,794    DaveWave            H
10,800    ChefImGartenPavillion
10,900    wachtwoord
11,050    samuraijin
11,076    LTU_btc
11,111    Searing
11,250    viviansidney
11,254    DarkIT
11,320    ivomm *
11,388    goldkingcoiner             H
11,432    sheenshane *
11,500    BobLawblaw          H
11,555    yazher
11,750    bavicrypto
11,978    Dunkelheit667     *H
12,000    MCDev *
12,010    vapourminer    H
12,015    d_eddie      *H
12,100    Natalim
12,225    UNOE
12,250    fabiorem
12,297    sunny28
12,345    o_e_l_e_o     H
12,400    bitserve
12,500    actmyname  H
12,600    figmentofmyass
12,688    psycodad
12,777    asu
12,835    GeoRW
12,978    akhjob
13,032    inthelongrun      H
13,087    AT101ET
13,200    Distinctin
13,333    madnessteat
13,475    Buchi-88
13,560    1miau
13,650    Sadlife
13,797    Unknown01
13,865    Ryker1 *
13,870    Saint-loup
14,000    igor72
14,100    Vaculin
14,200    chaser15 *
14,248    Souri
14,372    heslo
14,500    machasm
14,666    Febo *
14,775    Zero1One0
14,999    bitcampaign *
15,000    stadus
15,122    kurious    *H
15,300    rodel caling *
15,431    LFC_Bitcoin
15,500    peter0425
15,750    Dabs
15,872    Hhampuz
16,000    fillippone
16,130    Bttzed03
16,250    chronicsky
16,260    Gyrsur *
16,349    Soonandwaite
16,523    PoolMinor    *H
16,570    cygan
16,666    piebeyb *
16,755    DoublerHunter
16,990    JimboToronto   *H
17,000    rhomelmabini    H
17,200    bkbirge       H
17,409    N0sferatu
17,450    plasticAiredale
17,669    finaleshot2016
17,825    DeathAngel
18,000    Findingnemo
18,100    White sugar  *
18,856    Bitcoinaire *
18,888    Wind_FURY
19,197    NeuroticFish
19,849    LoyceV
20,200    btc78
20,500    carlisle1
20,950    mindrust
21,284    efialtis
21,599    Arriemoller
21,900    infofront
22,222    Last of the V8s   *H
22,345    ChinkyEyes
23,456    buwaytress        H
23,755    epis11
24,047    zarados
24,500    VB1001
25,000    serveria.com
25,500    harizen
26,000    bbc.reporter
27,038    DireWolfM14
29,500    Steamtyme    H
29,990    MishaMuc
33,333    micaxel
34,033    smartcomet
34,599    bitcoinPsycho *
38383     F2b
42,000    Elwar
55,216    fsm247 *

I have put all the haiku's together, please vote for which one to be named best of this Q4 game

*d_eddie

End of December
five months to the halvening
twelve hundred fifteen
----------------------------------------------
*actmyname

Halving a Christmas
Gift presents with Bitcoin sales
We'll see twelve point five.
----------------------------------------------
*Last of the V8s

An unstable world
will send the bitcoin price up,
right up to the moon.
----------------------------------------------
*o_e_l_e_o

Congratulations
To gentlemand on his win
And thanks again mic

I'll stick with the same
Prediction I made last time:
One Two Three Four Five
----------------------------------------------
*sirazimuth

Ok I’m back in
Hope I win another one
Thanx mic, you da man!
----------------------------------------------
*buwaytress

Forum meeting place
A grizzly, rowdy bull licks
in spite of the bear.
----------------------------------------------
*kurious

The bull will return
And prove holders right
Inevitably

Mic and Eddie’s hats
To be correct by Christmas
Would be delightful
----------------------------------------------
*goldkingcoiner

Bitcoin whales lurking.
No pain no fear no shaking.
Leverage shitcoins.
----------------------------------------------
*rhomelmabini

It is seventeen
Some fireworks may boom boom boom!
I say win win win!
----------------------------------------------
*Icygreen

Win bitcoins to play
Make a guess and hope to say
CCMF on that day!
----------------------------------------------
*sgbett

Have a haiku too
No, I didn't mean this one
The one below this...

Satoshi returned!
A moment to celebrate?
A moment too late?
----------------------------------------------
*inthelongrun

Charts are showing bad
Fundamentally solid
So here is my guess

Let us tame this bear
Seventeen is difficult
Thirteen bulls they come
----------------------------------------------
*bkbirge

Pleasant December
Suddenly green Bitcoin moons
Thankyou Observers
----------------------------------------------
*illyiller

Boring times coming,
Moonboys will be disappoint.
Sideways time is now.
----------------------------------------------
*BobLawblaw

I admit defeat.
The corn is unreadable.
So I will just hold.
----------------------------------------------
*JimboToronto

One-six-nine-ninety
Autumn rally will fall just short
And then dip slightly.
----------------------------------------------
*nutildah

mic, mic, he's our man
if he can't do it, no one
can. yaaaay micgoossens!
----------------------------------------------
*makrospex

So here's my take
Q3 i guessed way too high
this time shooting low
----------------------------------------------
*xhomerx10

December Bitcoin
correct battery staple
betrayed by the horse
----------------------------------------------
*PoolMinor

If I do not win
Coffee filled nights will begin
Please pass the sugar
----------------------------------------------
*Dunkelheit667

Winter is coming
The summer was burning hot
It's time to arise
----------------------------------------------
*Biodom

bitcoin will go deep;
the bull spirit would renew
before the halving
----------------------------------------------
*Steamtyme

Almost missed this one
Twenty-nine, five hundred please
Thanks Mister Mc-G
----------------------------------------------
*JSRAW

Late night December
where a famous, grumpy bull
loving the bears
----------------------------------------------
*o48o

It's over 10k.
Between previous winners,
no TA needed.
—————————————————————
*vapourminer

and mics game is on
generosity unmatched
promoting the corn

cat messed up before
but a cloud pattern saved me
showed 12 thousand 10
---------------------------------------------------

*DaveWave

I am the last one.
Last ones are the luckiest.
Is this a haiku?




I have put all the haiku's together, please vote for which one to be named best of this Q4 game

21599 USD
Just guessing wildly, because TA obviously doesn't work on bitcoin.

Edit: oh, and thank you again for a nice game.

PS No haikus from me right now, I suffer from haiku fatigue.

I will put in $12,225 because it looks like the month and date of ole saint nick's birthday.

But I know you got some Haiku in you

 8) :D

Sorry, I suffer from severe haiku fatigue right now.

End of December
five months to the halvening
twelve hundred fifteen


(12015)


#haiku


Don't worry Arrie, they will pour out of you - without any conscious effort  8)

Is that like HAIKU and reasonable thinking at once ??

I think people have to make a good HAIKU to beat this one....

Wow, nice thread, I didn't expect a prize


My price prediction is 9,800 USD at the end of 2019
I've been thinking that we will end 2019 at 10k range price, and 9.800 is the sweet spot for me

Can lightning strike twice in a row? Probably not.

My bum is telling me that we'll have some signs of life between now and then but nothing too dramatic. Going into next year it'll be steady.

I'm going for $10,296.

2 times a person that won, missed the next by a day or two or with just a few bucks like bikerleszno I think and Globb0 of-course

Halving a Christmas
Gift presents with Bitcoin sales
We'll see twelve point five.

(12500)

thanks for giving us another shot, mike. i'm gonna take a few days to glean what i can from the charts. i also want to see if everyone else is bullish or bearish first. :)


congrats on winning the q3 game! i would have felt super trolled if sgbett won! you know he'd be buying craigcoins.

oh you aren't going to like this at all...

$6383

The "TA" was done a long time ago (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg48073931#msg48073931), so far its played out broadly as predicted, so no reason to doubt it won't continue to do so... GLHF!

Nice game, going to place my bet on day 1 at $7375 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.msg52592386#msg52592386).

https://i.imgur.com/T8gwsSn.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/lfSA4LWe-BTCUSD-Measuring-The-Move-of-the-Descending-Triangle-Breakdown/)

$11,111.12

(do the math you can figure out from the above clue my BTC stash amount from that amount)

We will see.

If anything like last time when I guessed a much higher number  (1/3 more than above)

the price dumped to its current price. Knock wood my bet does not jinx the works this time.

Damn, I really hope the above is damn low and I lose by a huge amount of being too low on guesses.

Chump or Champ we will be the first to know!

Brad

14000

$20950

Because, In asuka we trust.

12978

My neice got that number for me using Inky Pinky Ponky (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BD3bjYn2ax8) counting-out Rhyme.

^ Link just for fun

THX for the speculation thread  ;D

My my advice 13.475 $

THX

$14372 is what I'm seeing. I hope I'm wrong and it's actually higher :D :D

Thank you for this thread @micgoossens!  :D

I guess the price will be 17.409$.

Thanks Mic.
I will go with 14500.

Congrats to gentlemand for the Q3 win and thanks again mic for letting us all play😂
I’m gonna go with just under 10. I believe the price will hover 8-9 then rise for Christmas , so ..

9,876

Thanks again mic.

Congrats for the win!

As for the guess, 9449 for me!
I was wrong by almost 20k last time, let's hope it will be the case again!  ;D

they analyze too carefully, but I am happy to join here, I know that no one can guess the right price even though he is a great trader even including me

I will predict beyond the reach of the people here

$ 16666+  :P

*TA 
I analyzed using the 1W MACD indicator and looked at the history of bitcoin prices beforehand, a bit of my analysis here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043315.0), I find it difficult to guess correctly but if that happens, just consider it just a coincidence. but I believe it will go to high prices 2020 - 2021

*haiku
believe me, bitcoin will go to the moon, the old saying is all will be beautiful in its time  ;D ;D ;D

Thanks mic!

Put me down for $9666.

I'm probably wrong, but it's OK cause I suck at haikus too... :)

Thankyou once again. Your generosity have no bounds.

$34599

Why?   

More bitcoin bought than sold :)

An unstable world
will send the bitcoin price up,
right up to the moon.

Plenty of time for autumn and winter shenanigans on international markets, including ours.

All the twos, get yer ducks in a row 22,222

#thanks, mic, you are a fabulous human being, no homo

i hope .... 16349   ;D

That not a Haiku  :-[


Absolutely right, I hate that guess ::)  :P

In this last quarter I believe there will be some big changes in the crypto volume as we had a very bad market last year because it was truly a memorable for crypto investors, people are more likely to view cryptocurrencies as a speculative high-risk investment. After recent market value I think it will reach near 15K.

55216 USD

My reasoning: I believe we will make a new ATH in the last quarter of this year and as soon as we do, media will cover it, Google searches will increase, fresh money will come in and the price will go through the roof.

Please give an exact nr you wanna guess, near a price isn't a guess ::)

Respect

^For both!

10298

According to my newly bought crystal ball from Indian antique store btc price will be:

23,755.23398   ;D

Congratulations
To gentlemand on his win
And thanks again mic

I'll stick with the same
Prediction I made last time:
One Two Three Four Five

$12,345 please! ;D

1BTC = 8412 $
 :o

5850$

Thx again for the competition, enjoyed the Q3 endspurt very much ;D

Prediction for Q4 - $15,431

Thanks mic :)

$8,340 - cabalism13

1BTC = $17,825

I think with the halving approaching we will start to see a bullish change in the price. I wish I coupd predict the price of 1BTC at the halving too, I’d go for $25,000.

Ok.
This time i get the pot!!

33333 Dollar each BTC

Tempting

$16250

 :o :o :o

You BEAR  ;D

my guess is 8250$ by the end of Q4

Why?

Because most guys are screaming for the bulls and I expect the unexpected  8)
some moves sideways shouldn´t be too bad at all after many up´s and down´s

thank you

My guess is $21284 - the reason is simple: its my birthday so I cant loose!  ;D 8)

Ok I’m back in
Hope I win another one
Thanx mic, you da man!

$9922

I do not want to win the grand prize with my forecast of $4780. Because I lose more than I win) Let the one who puts the highest price on Bitcoin win.

Far from being the man

though good to see you back

Don’t I get an H for my Haiku? :D

^
Excuse me sir

Not a problem dude.
Thanx :D ;)

Previous winner
No, far from being the man
Get that corn brother

Nah, four digit guess
To bearish for my years end
Highest price win please

This would be my first I'm guessing it will fall at $9455  ;D
As I see the current rate is much higher entering the last quarter of the year, and I feel that the rate would stabilized at around 9450-9500 range. Though I'll go for 9455.

$25k is my prediction. Thanks.  8)

I think everyone knows about halving 2020, I think it will increase the price of bitcoin at the end of 2019, maybe it could be much higher or lower than I predicted

14999 USD

good luck, thank you Mic

16,000 USD.
My quantic computer spitted the same exact forecast for Q3, but It was just me inputing wrong numbers.
Basically is a linear interpolation on PlanB model.

Technical analysis doesnt work for anything in an absolute certain way, its just a way of calculating likely probability.    Its very prone to criticism for being undefined in any resolution but I think its generally helpful in conjunction with multiple other views including obviously fundamentals, news, market liquidity, macroeconomic balance, etc.
  Stuff like will the FED cut rates, operate monetary easing programs for the rest of the year is pretty relevant and nobody knows that answer via any means for sure, I bet the FED doesnt even; plus deflationary events like the middle east upset, etc

   Dec 31st is cloudy because its the holiday season but then BTC is global and many dont celebrate xmas or even the new year at that point.    I hope I come to a positive estimate from here rather then negative but I'm going to take the full week to consider the medium to long term view on this one and hopefully I get a good guess in before the deadline next week.

I was about to enter 12,345 but I saw some evil genius has already snatched this amazing price from me, but I am thankful for that, as the oracle has spoken to me and whispered that I missed a step. So my prediction is:


And while Sojourner has never made an ATH prediction before, let it be known that this only means he will be right.

Forum meeting place
A grizzly, rowdy bull licks
in spite of the bear.

If everything continues as before, it is possible to close the year at +/- 15,000, but Bitcoin is unpredictable and if it shoots 24,500 it is a good place for a break.

1 BTC = $24,500

Thx, Mic

Just pulled this number from somewhere:

$16,130

Never say never. Although I'd prefer to see at least 15k until then.
And congrats for the win! I was sure the money will not go to a BCasher  ;)


Since my wish was not granted for Q3, I'll try the same for Q4: 19197

Wait, I'll ask myself in the future ;D
Oh no, where is my time machine, wait I'll call someone.......
Hello Avenger, where is my time machine legacy from Stark?
 :D :D :D

Good luck for everyone who eligile to participate in this Q4 prediction game.
There are a lot of TA of bitcoin price may fall to $5K, but personally I would say bitcoin will recover to $10,300.


LoL, you got it man ;D ;D ;D
\Hopefully the oracle speaks the truth

1BTC = 16.570 USD

good luck to all participants  ;D ;)

3 x Current price still make sense

1BTC = $24.047

$21,900

9599

$ 6,111

I am always to optimistic - now I am changing my mind...
Thanks again @micgoossens for your great offer - its always a big fun! :)

12835

$12250.

$15,122.88

Based on 2015 overlay and extrapolation of the ratio at end of Q3.

The bull will return
And prove holders right
Inevitably

Plus (if it is $15K+)

Mic and Eddie’s hats
To be correct by Christmas
Would be delightful

The price will be at 11,388

*ahem* Haiku:

Bitcoin whales lurking.
No pain no fear no shaking.
Leverage shitcoins.

Well, the price of bitcoin can reach that point at the end of the year, but I will try to be even more optimistic  :D
I think the price of bitcoin can reach $ 11254 by the end of this year.
hope my prediction approaches that price  8)

Hey stop that. Everyone is supposed to guess over 10k to give me more chance ;)


On the bright side, if win, it means I win "Less" ;)

$10678 clearly!
These games are lots of fun, and just shows nobody has a clue.
Cheers Mic :)

$7,650

I think the sideways trend with a slight decline will continue for at least 3-6 months, because Bitcoin failed to skyrocket, and now we have a tug of war between bulls and bears. So, the price shouldn't stray too far from what we have now, and if I remember correctly, Bitcoin often goes down a bit around winter holidays, so my prediction is on the lower side.

If we consider the past performance, there should be a bull ride by the end of the year until Christimas, then some dump.

My guess is we touch ATH by December 23 then we fall 10% in the Holidays week.

So around $18100

I think 13333. Thanks Mic!  ;)

I'll pick 5384. Don't ask my why, I got no crystal ball  :D. All i know is bitcoin market is capable of the best as the worst  ::) Let's see  :P

I think the Bull come not back this years so 6820 $ for one BTC 🤔

I will stick somehow to the closest price around my previous guess. $25,500 at the end of the year.

No more deep analysis, no more drawings, no more well-detailed technical analysis, no more !@#$%^.

Welcome to the new ATH. 8)

Edited: Someone already guesses $25,000 so I changed mine.

Let's give it a nice round number: $8000

I'm hoping for a much higher price, but if we're still down here come year end, winning 0.125BTC will be a nice consolation. Good luck all!

My guess would be $6000.

The reason is, because I think BTC will need a rest after the recent bull, and before it starts its halving moon. So I guess it will have a good correction until the end of 2019.

It is seventeen
Some fireworks may boom boom boom!
I say win win win!

$17k

10,123

Reason for picking the price was because its between the price of 2 previous winners.  ::)  But really, I think we are going to rally into December and crash back to 10k for the close of Q4.

Win bitcoins to play
Make a guess and hope to say
CCMF on that day!

Price target $9200

https://i.imgur.com/5YNTGcp.png

Have a haiku too
No, I didn't mean this one
The one below this...

Satoshi returned!
A moment to celebrate?
A moment too late?

Nice, there's Q4 prediction, you completed mic the whole quarter of this year.

Here is my guess, $11,432

I believed in HairyMaclairy TA, but I have a doubt it will give more price surge and begun to the new ATH when Q4 will end.

Give me $18,888! 8)

I will go to around $10620 for me.
I used Observation Haki to my prediction ;)

I will go with $9,888.

If this huge triangle is starting to form w/out breaking above or below until 2020, then this could be possible, breaking above before block halving at 2020? Well, still possible for me.
Huge price actions always happening not on the day of Bitcoin block halving but it could be probably months before of the block halving, why? Take a look on some previous block halvings happened on Bitcoin.
Good luck everyone! This is so difficult  ;D
https://i.imgur.com/44eraxr.png

Charts are showing bad
Fundamentally solid
So here is my guess

$13,032.01 👣🕺😉🤸📯

Let us tame this bear
Seventeen is difficult
Thirteen bulls they come

Nice one, that's fast. Thank you micgoossens for hosting this another exciting prediction game.

My prediction is $15,000, hopefully I will be lucky this time around.  Good luck to all of you guys.

I think that's being too hopeful already. It's going to be a big jump from hiw we ended 2018 if we'll end up with 15k. Just for the sake of it though, i'd place my bet from 10 to 13k. And that's stretching it already. We now know that the 4th quarter is not always ran by the bulls with what happened last year. I'll be happy if we sustain just the 10k levels.

Since there is no Fee for predicting the price, I will predict in the price before the new years eve would be $11,555 this is the price that I think would make sense when that time comes.
So Yazher's prediction is $11,555 please.

Will take a chance to get even closer for end year

It will be 15,500$ at the most

Crossing my fingers 😂

In it to win it. *Jokes*
Definitely a difficult one to predict. Would love to be wrong and see a new ATH though!
I’m predicting $13,087.62

Allow me to join the party here, .. I like the generosity of the OP that's why it makes this competition more fun to watch.

I like to win that big amount, so I will lay my prediction ..

1 BTC will be $13,200 +>>>>

$18,856

I still think we may be front running the last bull market and currently are just in a long consolidation.
Thanks Mic!

Well, good thing there is a contest like this and the prize is quite big for me. Thank you OP.
I saw your post in Pilipinas board and allow me here to join your contest. Well, I believed Bitcoin price will pump up at the end of this year because it is ber month and usually it will happen.

1BTC is equal to $13,865 at that time. Thank you.

just guessing: $16260 (Bitstamp)

https://i.imgur.com/2fCoW8l.png

Pleasant December
Suddenly green Bitcoin moons
Thankyou Observers

$17,200 USD is my W.A.G.

$12'688.93 (+/- 0.05)

Just a wild guess, therefor I included some tolerance/variance.

Ok, I will give this a try  :D

After taking a look in my crystal ball, I will say 9722 $

i think actual price will see a bump right before year end but on the very last day get a cut because people is going to party hard and so needs money :-)

guesstimate is 9,212.5 USD

My friend Gary McKenize totally thinks its will be pretty high by the end of the year, and he has a dirt-bike, so yeah he's pretty cool.

So my prediction is $17,450 (which would be cool like a dirt-bike).

Since my first prediction has been already in the list I have no choice but to adjust lol 😂

Anyway this is the closer I can get so it’s


$13,650

Edit: Oops sorry didn’t read the rules first since I am lack of 4 merits to join but I’ll give it a try if considerable,if not that’s fine for me

Thanks Mic

^ Oh great this is good prediction thread to hang out aside from WO thread that rarely visits for a while.
I dunno how to drawing but when it comes to verbal technical analysis, I can do that. :D

Here is mine, $16,755 per 1 BTC.

Thx mic for this Q4 contest.

That’s for newbie members the merit count, your good to go :)

It’s to avoid people making new accounts to add more than 1 guess etc

I will try to be more sideways this time, either not bullish nor bearish since there doesn't seem to be any scheduled futuristic news favoring the price rise in Q4. Neither the BAKKT doesn't seem to be bring any price rise and we are still not exactly having a stabilized volatility like we had from March 2018 ~ November 2018.

More More or More Less?
Probably More Less  :(


Let me quote my price as $6755 per bitcoin

$10666 maybe?
The price seems to gravitate towards numbers that have the "666" string on it, and 10k seems to be a reasonable number.

After briefly climbing above $30,000 the price will close at $27,038.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I am more on a bull ,2018 fails my expectations so this year positivity is what I am holding 👍I will be on 20k level so it will be

$20,500

Let’s Rock the Bull
Many Thanks Mic for this Q4 !!

I hope I am lucky and right to guess this prediction,
31 December 2019 bitcoin could have touched the price $11050

$17,669

the end is near
all are frozen
bitcoin is inevitable

Gonna try my luck here, as usual, some people here have good speculations and graphical input, I hope you win guys.
I'm bad at speculating and predicting but still tryin'.

It is likely that we don’t touch ATH this year, although the value may end well this year but till next year before I can foresee the factors that will cause the market to surge an reach ATH, most of the projects that I have expected will create FOMO is not going to happen this year until next year and believe me, next year will be a very significant year for bitcoin.

There is going to be a lot of factors that will make many people get exposed to bitcoin and we will have more adoption in which there will be concentration of it on or before the halving of bitcoin which is around may, so it is likely that it’s shortly after the bull run of bitcoin is when we will see the new ATH and I expect that this time around, the ATH might really climb above $20k, maybe it could get to $30k.

For the past few quarters, I tried my wife's prediction. That didn't work :P
So now I'm picking one myself: $19,849
I know, I feel like a bit of a bear now, but Q4 is too early to reach $50k, so I made a conservative guess.

Mark me down for $7,510!

Boring times coming,
Moonboys will be disappoint.
Sideways time is now.

I think ranging $6,000 - $9,000 next few months.

Damn, me a MOONboy

$14,200.

The slow process is the key to that new ATH to happen. We already reached $14,000 price this year but still, it doesn't show strong support from below levels.

With that, I have noticed that supports really need at least over a month to test how strong it is on a given level.

We are now at $8,000 level and moving up and down a bit. With this movement and if no one , news or events will ruin it, a strong $14,000 will happen in December and for that whole month, I see it will only swing between the range of $13,500 to $15,000.

Ooooppss!!! I don’t Wanna lose the chance and I love doing this..

It’s $20,200

The bull is here and I’m one of the MOONboys


Remember that the finals is New Year’s Eve ,don’t be sad for 2020 (of course this is a joke 😂😂😂)

Thank you Mic 👍

I have a feeling that we will retest the $9100 resistance and fail to close above on the weekly and head down again and break the $7600 pivot and sit on the ~$6000 area support for many many weeks.

Hence my guess is $6000

I hope I am wrong but the weekly charts are looking bearish. However I don't expect $6000 to break ever. So I am a short term bear and long term bull.

Sorry, I dont do haiku.
Its not part of my skill set.
Google does not help:

seems more problematic than getting all the data dumps of theymos eh?

LoyceV:

ERROR! ERROR! ERROR!
HAIKU NOT FOUND!
MOREOVER, IT IS OVER.

---

I wonder if I can now delete my prediction,  mic? Am I allowede to🤔?  Besides I'm already on the list 🤣

And

Just in case there might some other guys here wants to join our mini game... Just inform me...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5187910.msg52568284#msg52568284

Minimum Bet per Entry Php500 or $9.66 in BTC.
Maxinum 5  Entries.

If win Php will be converted to BTC and will be transfered to your wallet (fees will be handle by your winnings :) - we have a low value of money so if you don't mind :) )

Like this it would be HAIKU-BTC-talk approved? :D

Goodbye year 19!
New beginnings and halving!
Lucky on year 20!

$14,775.75

That would be 77.7% increase from today's price.

rude

you obviously havent read the first post in this thread, which happens to give away some serious money.
you've gone back a couple pages, answered the top post with some meaningless drivel and moved on oblivious
you deserve your shitposting hell, jostorres, you earned it

12000 USD
I think that in 2019 Bitcoin will not be able to exceed 15000 USD, 12000 $ is a moderate number.
Thanks

Somehow I have a feeling that BTC price will go down when Xmas and NY will be close.

7856 $

so far i always predicted much too high. try it differently now and decide for: 10101 USD
furthermore i land with this tip exactly between 2 users who have already won ;D
That must be a good sign.

Finally a homer :D

Gl luck with your thinking brother Globb0

Maybe you should have waited.... I expect another 3-4-5 previous winners to join the game :D

Dec 31, 2019 the XBT exchange rate on Bitstamp will be (drum roll, please)

$6370

For the rationale behind this prediction, refer to
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52622136#msg52622136
The exact figure comes from the spreadsheet used to generate that image.

$10455

I'll add my prediction: $9,315

The monthly tiemframe on Bitcoin looks bullish to me overall, but in the next couple of months I think we'll see more of a ranging/sideways price action. I am guilty to be a little bit biased as I believe in BTC and blockchain of course. Monthly actually shows a lower high but hasn't put in a lower low yet and it is above all my EMAs. So we're probably just going to hover between $7000-$10k.

Put me in for $16990.

I figure we'll rally in Nov/Dec but fall just short of an ATH and then dip by a grand or two.
_________

One-six-nine-ninety
Autumn rally will fall just short
And then dip slightly.

$10,000

mic, mic, he's our man
if he can't do it, no one
can. yaaaay micgoossens!

I will add the latest prices this evening...
Please do look at the latest posts before adding your price :)

$10128
It's me, the winner here.

Reason- No bull this year. A little pump only.

mic: what is your stance on people using alt accounts to play the game?


He's also a WO poster:


Pretty sleazy posting a guess in here with an alt account if you ask me...

Truth be told, there's probably lots of alts in the game, but this one we know for sure.

29990 - EU is bullish  ;)

I only guess the price at the end of December is $ 1308

With prove I would need to stand against ALT-accounts I really hope to avoid them and give every member a fair chance, I hope the competing guessers think similar... be respectful to the other members everybody likes a fair chance... i'm already the fool giving some away, please follow the basics of a honourable gentleman
THX

I just hope I'm not forced to say only from hero or legendary status .....

I guess your interest is not with BTC.... ?? ::)

So here's my take
Q3 i guessed way too high
this time shooting low

that said, $12.345

I do like your posts on the WO but I would really think you wouldn’t be the guy not checking he’s guess and post a pick that’s already been taken....

Please do read the OP and don’t take a post that’s already been taken, or is your guess extremely bearish double digit 12 bucks??

::)

Tom Lee oh Tom Lee where art thou my Tom Lee.

#Shakesperean haiku

No change in my prediction. Always $25k, for Tom Lee hehehe.

A Haiku

December Bitcoin
correct battery staple
betrayed by the horse

and a wild guess:

 $10384

 Thanks for another community spirit booster Mr. MicG!
 

I was way off with my Q3 guess. Let's give it another try.

The two white arrows on this chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/h4MQnCOL/) are a good approximation of where I think price will be at year end. Somewhere between $9,800 and $10,600 if I had to put a number on it.

So my guess is $10,209.

the most appropriate price for the end of the year in my opinion is $ 12500.
I hope I become the winner.
the reason is there will be no new ATH for the end of the year so I chose an increase that occurred in June this year alone.

Hey OP, it looks like I didn't miss this one then. First thread on Speculation, your games are very popular!

I'm not sure how to classify myself, I don't have much crypto and don't earn much, but almost everything goes into BTC. I end up spending a lot of it in the end regardless of price but I have hopes of keeping 1 BTC permanently.

My prediction is that we will go down lower this quarter, but December will be above 10k. I don't believe in holiday period price but I believe in psychology and whatever happens below 10k, Buyers will push to end the year at a price the brain likes to see.


My price: $10202

Fortune favours the BOLD

the guys at the two ends of these lists are always funny. the one at the end (highest price) could still work on it and set a record though.

in any case, here is my prediction: $10,750

why? i believe there is still a chance for more drops but there is a higher chance for the reversal. but the difference is that when the reversal happens, like before we will see a FOMO and the price could easily jump back up. 2 months i a reasonable time for this to happen too. but since $13k is the previous resistance and also $10k itself is somewhat of a resistance we may see things slow down. so we either see a $9k price close to $10k or break above it and get closer to $11k. hence my choice of $10,750!

$10200

No reasoning other than my crystal ball. :)

My prediction is 14248.90$ based on complex meta technical analysis. By which I mean it is the mean value of all the predictions made in this thread and therefore combines all your great reasonings. ;)

Like in the german thread said before, I see no bullrun for the rest of the year. So my prediction is: 8152$
But hopefully I'm totaly wrong and we are on the way to the moooon  8)

Clever reasoning.  Should be mathematically sound.

Please read prices

Not valid

please read price

Not valid

$ 8,765  ;D

TopTort - 9831$

Precious thread I have predicted high price, but btc went down. This time gonna bet on low price, hoping it will go high  ;D

I'm expecting a mark of $ 6218.
The price of an BTC will drop dramatically before the bullrun.  

Yeah I even opened Excel so I clearly must be right. ;)

I am at $8999

In the past few months when btc was stuck between 3-4k, I was in the middle of doing some personal loans/refinancing/stock dilution, from what I can gather from talking to loan officers/bankers etc, there was a lot of buzz around accumulating the btc at that price range which we all saw how it shot up to 12k and now at around 8k. So simply by seeing this, there was lot of new whales(mostly people from wall street and other financial institutions) who accumulated at the bottom and sold around 1/3 of their holdings to get their original investment back and most of the btc they are hodling now is pure profit. We will prob see this for few more months and see the waves of up and down in the range of 12-6k. Since we all know how easy it is to manipulate the market if you really want to. I am just keeping my price somewhere in middle from my perspective since I not sure if we would be at top or bottom of the wave when we hit  00.00 CET  December 31th

Good luck mate but I think my guess will earn us more money 8)

$16523

If I do not win
Coffee filled nights will begin
Please pass the sugar




Thanks for the game!

Edit:
Look for the beginning of the pre-halvening rise around the end of November.

img(graph with lines and circles of various colors drawn on it)/img → use your imagination.

Good chart never lie. Price on December 31th 00.00 CET  will be exactly $14666


https://i.gyazo.com/45060968bc5a7d354e423bf00aa0eb60.png

$18,000

Let my guess listed too Mic.

Just go with guess over any Technical Analysis,want to see how much lucky I am. :D

Though I have a feeling that BTC might struggle in the last quarter of this year, but I like to stay positive.

With that said, my prediction would still be a good price although not the ATH,  and its...

1BTC  $14,100.

$42,000

Because XLII is the answer.

No haiku from me, I can't think of one right now. Well, at least I tried.

13.797,77  ;D

Thank you for the Game! :)

The quarterly game, I'm in, thanks Mic! :)

This time it's hard for me to figure out any meaningful guess, other than sideways and a little up.

Well then, our opening price on the first of October was $8304. When I add our average gains since 2011 for October, November and December (according to this spreadsheet (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52610028#msg52610028)), the outcome is $11978 and this will be my guess.

My second Haiku is due:

Winter is coming
The summer was burning hot
It's time to arise

$34,033
I rolled 5 dices and got it. ;)

Change it to $26k.

Thank you.

$11.750
Thanks! :D

$5450

A Number that matches 2015 appreciation in %%.
The premature summer 'activities' led to fall/winter apprehension.
Where are the bull spirits?
Wall street is up to no good with btc.
Not going to trade this.


bitcoin will go deep;
the bull spirit would renew
before the halving

$ 10518  :)

The way the bears are predicting, we will never see 20k again.

Look at sgbear prediction, for example. 2k in 2021. This would blow up the theory of the four-year cycles, because the ATH of 2013 was reached in 2016, so the ATH of 2017 should be reached in 2020, but its not the case, in his prediction.

$11 320
The support at $7 500 looks solid, so I think we've seen the local bottom at $7700. Besides, the majority of the traders are in some loss currently, so any other crash looks less probable now. From now on, I expect a gradual recovery above $10K. With the approaching of the halving, $10K should not tease anymore the weak hands to sell as an insurance. I expect a peak around 13K but during the holidays we usually have some 10-15%-ish correction, hence my prediction.

10183

The date my first born was pulled out from her mothers womb. ;D
Plus his age by now.
Also, I do think it will go up in mid December. But I am staying with a conservative amount.

7000 please

here's my ta trending down, hoping for any green ladder to take us out of here.

https://i.imgur.com/S0bxNVW.jpg

Thanks for the game micg!


$22,345 for me at the end of Q4 ;D

Just made some completely crazy TA, with 0% accuracy

10327 at december 13th!

Thanks for the game @micgoossens

Most projects should be done liquidating their BTC by the end of 2019 and I see people sitting more tight on their BTC, while the big boys are still pushing the market around at will. So it's hard to guesstimate where they want the price to be at any given date. Should be a bit higher than it is now though, thus my guess: $9100

I'm going for $10900 this time as a bounce before then.

Mmm 31th you probably mean :D

31st even you probably mean   :D

Never outsmart a host  :-*

Fair point! I retract my statement   ;)

15,750 Dabs

Because ... I picked a spot in the middle between two other predictions.

My prediction for Q4 is somewhat more pesimistic:
8520       iced

I hope that I am not right and that it will score better than this, but there's more people cashing out for Xmas etc.. 

That’s a true winning statement

Will add latest prices tomorrow....

Looking to deep into a glass of bad news and becoming mentally dizzy......

8642 wttbs

Pull yourself together Mic. This is bitcoin . It's the future  .bad news/fud  seen it all before and look ....btc$8092 wtf  it's happening. Happy happy happy

FTFY
chikun?

I touched my willy
when I could have been learning haiku
what a shame

$11 076
Last time I was optimistic too much, I hope this time I will be more close to reality :D.
And no haiku again :(

We have already fully entered the fourth quarter and we would like to see the long-awaited growth of the cryptocurrency market already. It is especially interesting to see how altcoins will behave this time. It would be time for them to wake up. Almost two years are not growing in price. It is too early to make any forecasts. Need to generally look in which direction the market will move.

I guess price of before end of the year ranging at 15,300 usd and that the strating margin of bitcoin goes into the moon by 1st quarter of the year 2020.

$12,100,.. that's my prediction. I don't mind if I win or not as long as BTC will not end up below $10,000.

keep this competition alive until next year, and thanks for this good reward, you are one of the reason why this community is an awesome place to say. (no kidding). ;D ;D

More BTCBTCBTCBTC moon to come.

11250 dolar

I think we will see a 30% increase by the end of the year at least.

Bitcoin price is going to go bullish after Bakkt futures launched due to the physical delivery bitcoin, even institutional investors can manage their assets to buy the contract, it's a game-changer.
Bitcoin price will fluctuate within $11K-$10K and hit $10,155 by the end of the year 00.00 CET

you forgot my guess: 8642 wttbs
please add, thanks

Added, excuse me sir :)

no excuse needed  ;D

thanks for running this !

My Prediction BTC $6666 BTC

Thanks for the contest!

BTC Iwantapony BTC

7187

Almost missed this one
Twenty-nine, five hundred please
Thanks Mister Mc-G

---

$29 500. I don't have my own TA, still learning. I do follow a guy and he's been consistent in his reasoning and his measured moves, also doesn't always reset his lines. I'm still coming in a couple thousand lower than he's showing but If I lose cause it goes higher we're all still winners.  ;)

$15872

Holidays are upon us, that's all the reasoning I have.

(thanks again for these micg, you rock!)

Things looks really gloomy around so I'm expecting bitcoin to touch only $9,200 by the end of the year. The catalyst that we are all waiting for which is Bakkt does not deliver what we expected. If destiny has a surprise for us and it made a rally again then we should at least see it going for $21k - $23k but there is only a small chance.

Pffff already taken...

I want to believe that the price will be much higher than $12,300!
There is a small chance that now my intuition does not let me down, so I choose the mark of $12,297

BTC = $6500

Late night December
where a famous, grumpy bull
loving the bears

$8,850.78   :)


Thanks for hosting us yet again..

I was thinking today we would stay below 8000 but it seems nobody wants it to do that so quickly, we will probably even see 6000 in the next 3 months if the bulls do not come back with strength (and I mean for this a lot of volume).

Bad economic times coming for everyone everywhere and some people think this means Bitcoin will be in demand, but I wonder, if banks will make sure they stay strong first till 2020? So whether people are right or wrong about economic effect on Bitcoin, it will be too soon to have impact. So today's price is the benchmark and there is no one at 8800 so!

My prediction,,, $8,880.

Thank you for the game, Mister OP;) If I had merit :P

Kudos to micgoossens, great giveaway as usual!

My prediction: 13,560$ per BTC
After my bad fail in your last giveaway (I was way to bullish) I've adjusted my expectations a little bit.  :D
But still bullish ofc, the halving is coming!

---

PS:

order is a little bit confused here:

^
Thank you sir, and fixt it ...  :D

7777 for me.

Hey, I did not forgot your game, this time :P

I currently have no time to do some market analysis, so I'll just pick a number that looks cool.
Let's say... 38383$. Is that cool enough ?  ;D

Howdy, MicG :D

$12,777 on the line.

$10,800

Because....I have no clue...unpredictable...but will go upwards, not too much, a little though!

$ 7266  just want to guess and follow the game.

Thanks a lot @Mic for this next round of fun and excitement raised during these months of "stockish" movements where nothing really happens pricewise ;)

I pick $4,765 without any reasoning, TA or Haiku ;)

I'm a Barbie girl in a Barbie world
Life in plastic, it's fantastic
You can brush my hair, undress me everywhere
Imagination, life is your creation

Come on, Barbie, let's go party!

Maybe 6400 will be the new 6400? Hmm...

I'm choosing 6400.

Thanks, Mic!

Your cool. Great pick :)

It's over 10k.
Between previous winners,
no TA needed.

BTC will be $10250

ok, my call is $8080

my TA is just for fun, dont laugh if its off [very likely] ;D its just to give some reasoning why i think it could be around current price in 3 months and show that i dont think it will sit here for whole 3 months at the same time  :)

https://i.postimg.cc/rFJfyGfM/taq4-19b.png

shot in the dark: $12600

I will go with a bullish number and say $12400. Absolutely no TA for this one. Just a somewhat bullish guess for end of year and considering it could even reach $15K (at the most) for the remaining of 2019.

Thanks MIC!!

Put me down for $9,050. I'm no trading guru, just a random guess. :)

i am going to choose $10232 as my prediction although i think it is a bit of a lowball but this time i am going to choose a price based on what the list says instead of what i think even though i may disagree with it...

Game list updated.
Please do check your price guesses.
human make mistakes.  #Haike

Last day to free-roll.
Game of generosity.
Who will be lucky?      #Haike

Last quarter to rise.
Bitcoin longing for break out!
Next year we will shine.       #Haike


I think correct updated at this time, but many had put an invalid (already taken price or just not a specific price)
Please do change or fall off ....

Cheers and let the highest win!!!

According to my professional technical analysis my call is: 7080$ (seven thousand eighty)

And of course here comes my TA
spoiler: i have no idea what i'm drawing here but because the majority is bullish and the price always does the opposite of what the majority thinks ...

https://i.imgur.com/2tYvaDt.jpg

Thanks for the game micgoossens!

Hello, thank you for this new amazing contest micgoossens!

Here is my prediction, I think the price will go up through the next quarter thanks to the perspective of the coming halving.
But the failure of Bakkt and of the ETF approval will weigh on that trend, so I don't think we will close the year above the key level of $14 000.
I will bet on $13 870 then.

and mics game is on
generosity unmatched
promoting the corn

cat messed up before
but a cloud pattern saved me
showed 12 thousand 10

Give me $10,794 please.

I am the last one.
Last ones are the luckiest.
Is this a haiku?

$6,890

Last minute bear entry! ;D

I wasnt able to decide anyway, $6613 would be my guess based on previous trend but we've gotten no real direction from recent action as the dust is still settling from the last fall.

https://i.imgur.com/ycfuUYi.png

Blue line is rough year average and yellow just short of 4 years moving average.   This is a higher guess then my last attempt so clearly I'm more swayed towards optimism this time  ;D  Really I want negativity flushed out, when that comes and it breaks back up I dont know.
   Nictrades did a bigger picture look recently I think but I need to watch it again, link to their channel for any interested - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiE6CqH1RtU

2nd guess as my first price was already taken, i spare the haiku.

$5.660

Full bear mode, this time
based on my shitty TA
hope i hit the price

Thanks  ;D

6453$

I just found this thread and keep reading. It is important to know the other already taken positions/predictions and the thread is already 13 pages of reading long, so I will update my comment with proper prediction and explanation when I go through these 250+ comments  ;) :D.

I think you are late buddy, OP has already announced that the game list was already closed.
I just check again to see the final list and I saw a poll on "who's HAIKU was the best one?"... so I voted (will you know which HAIKU I voted?).. I like to keep it secret if possible.  ;D ;D

^
Keep it secret why not :)

And indeed.... the list has closed :/

Though, you can still add a price for sports :)

In my area, Wednesday ends in 2 and a half hours.

And for people belonging to Australia and East Asian Countries, it's already Thursday  :P

Just when I deleted my post.

Mic' can you include my guess for sports? :)

^
For a celebrity .... with no doubt  8)

What happened to my drunken offensive haiku?

Bastards!

Failed attempt (my money=on purpose) , correct it and I will add it asap  :-*

Extraordinary attempt, I bet I have pages full like those  ;D

10400$

I think demand will rise a bit through the months, little bit of FUD here or there.
Things like banks and atms shutting down in Hong Kong might have an impact on the bitcoin price, I don't think the protests are going to end anytime soon so the banks probably won't open their offices.
So maybe Hong Kong will become an example of people taking finance into their own hands because of governmental oppression?
I'm hoping that might cause news articles about Bitcoin from a positive view causing bitcoin to rise back to a little bit above 10.000$

I have put all the haiku's together, please vote for which one to be named best of this Q4 game

*d_eddie

End of December
five months to the halvening
twelve hundred fifteen
----------------------------------------------
*actmyname

Halving a Christmas
Gift presents with Bitcoin sales
We'll see twelve point five.
----------------------------------------------
*Last of the V8s

An unstable world
will send the bitcoin price up,
right up to the moon.
----------------------------------------------
*o_e_l_e_o

Congratulations
To gentlemand on his win
And thanks again mic

I'll stick with the same
Prediction I made last time:
One Two Three Four Five
----------------------------------------------
*sirazimuth

Ok I’m back in
Hope I win another one
Thanx mic, you da man!
----------------------------------------------
*buwaytress

Forum meeting place
A grizzly, rowdy bull licks
in spite of the bear.
----------------------------------------------
*kurious

The bull will return
And prove holders right
Inevitably

Mic and Eddie’s hats
To be correct by Christmas
Would be delightful
----------------------------------------------
*goldkingcoiner

Bitcoin whales lurking.
No pain no fear no shaking.
Leverage shitcoins.
----------------------------------------------
*rhomelmabini

It is seventeen
Some fireworks may boom boom boom!
I say win win win!
----------------------------------------------
*Icygreen

Win bitcoins to play
Make a guess and hope to say
CCMF on that day!
----------------------------------------------
*sgbett

Have a haiku too
No, I didn't mean this one
The one below this...

Satoshi returned!
A moment to celebrate?
A moment too late?
----------------------------------------------
*inthelongrun

Charts are showing bad
Fundamentally solid
So here is my guess

Let us tame this bear
Seventeen is difficult
Thirteen bulls they come
----------------------------------------------
*bkbirge

Pleasant December
Suddenly green Bitcoin moons
Thankyou Observers
----------------------------------------------
*illyiller

Boring times coming,
Moonboys will be disappoint.
Sideways time is now.
----------------------------------------------
*BobLawblaw

I admit defeat.
The corn is unreadable.
So I will just hold.
----------------------------------------------
*JimboToronto

One-six-nine-ninety
Autumn rally will fall just short
And then dip slightly.
----------------------------------------------
*nutildah

mic, mic, he's our man
if he can't do it, no one
can. yaaaay micgoossens!
----------------------------------------------
*makrospex

So here's my take
Q3 i guessed way too high
this time shooting low
----------------------------------------------
*xhomerx10

December Bitcoin
correct battery staple
betrayed by the horse
----------------------------------------------
*PoolMinor

If I do not win
Coffee filled nights will begin
Please pass the sugar
----------------------------------------------
*Dunkelheit667

Winter is coming
The summer was burning hot
It's time to arise
----------------------------------------------
*Biodom

bitcoin will go deep;
the bull spirit would renew
before the halving
----------------------------------------------
*Steamtyme

Almost missed this one
Twenty-nine, five hundred please
Thanks Mister Mc-G
----------------------------------------------
*JSRAW

Late night December
where a famous, grumpy bull
loving the bears
----------------------------------------------
*o48o

It's over 10k.
Between previous winners,
no TA needed.
————————————————————
*vapourminer

and mics game is on
generosity unmatched
promoting the corn

cat messed up before
but a cloud pattern saved me
showed 12 thousand 10
---------------------------------------

*DaveWave

I am the last one.
Last ones are the luckiest.
Is this a haiku?

-----------------------------------------


I have put all the haiku's together, please vote for which one to be named best of this Q4 game



Haiku voting poll until 16-10-2019

My out-of-the-competition try 7900$.
Sorry for i missed it this time again. :(

Are you sure this was closed before I reserved my spot or is closed now just after my post?

Because before I applied, of course, first I have read the OP and couple of posts from the last page and there was nothing that the contest is ended?

Even more, I have seen people applying and found this in the OP:


That is why I reserved my spot because it was exactly 9 October around 13.00 CET when I found this thread and started to read it.

If this is true, then it would be great to add to the OP an announcement about the contest end.

I'm sorry for them that where to late, but I think like every game before the enter and close date where very clear....

The problem is in the window of those days some take prices early and some wait till the last day, some notice only last day or whatsoever...

But for them that have let us say 10,000 and the next one 10,100, then they have a range of 50$ between and if someone thats to late picks 10,040 or something then it would decrease a lot of chance is the price would be ranging around those numbers and it wouldn't be fair for them that where on time.

I do like everyone to join, but if there is a open and close, then I must respect them for everyone that has joined.


Small question for other members, or the entree and close clear to understand? Or did I do it wrong and have to change things for probably the HALVING game after Q4??

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52700259#msg52700259

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52702087#msg52702087

Last day I also posted these ones as reminder and as END....

I don't think there is a need for changing anything in the next game after Q4 and I don't think there is anything misleading in the OP (I'm not a native English speaker).

Moreover, when someone is giving out free Bitcoins for engaging the community, I think all the participants should respect the OPs terms and conditions without complaining.

Missed Q3 because of merits
Waited for long enough
Forum contribution gave me merits
Q4 is hot stuff  8)

^Hope this is eligible for a haiku and I would like * if possible.

Thanks Mic

@mic you did everything fine.

I can only speak for myself, but I simply didn't read thoroughly enough!

Thanks for hosting these games :)

nah, it was all clear and thanks for these games you keep putting up every quarter.
i personally was trying to join near the end of the date but i got busy and didn't visit bitcointalk and when i did near the end, i forgot to join the game ::)

Theres a natural conflict here between the best time to guess being the last moment because it gives the best data near term and the problem of being distracted, etc.  The best advice is always take the deadline as one day earlier then stated or 1 hour, etc.    The timezones makes matters more confusing so really going on a day early was the best approach.  I just couldn't decide but Im the type to procrastinate.
  I was just waiting elsewhere for a deadline, they said midnight 10th October release.   Turns out they were going on Samoa time which is 22 hours past when Sydney first sees that same midnight :D   Its like 4am Thurs there now and Friday in Australia.

I wanted to characterise my guess as staying within range, its a big range but my previous guess in July was a breakdown so seriously alot more bearish.    I saw us failing support in that case as speculators enter a 'shock' reaction to leaving the uptrend.  Thats natural, some are going to hop off the hay cart when it hits a bumpy road and we have so much speculation in BTC that the impact of some leaving has alot of influence near to medium term.   So I'd say its doing as expected and my guess this time also was not positive but I didnt think it was reasonable to again predict a breakdown out of range, its just we do have a big possible range of prices now from perhaps 6k to 10k is how I see it.    It might have been reasonable to predict a breakout upwards from that range but my guess is we dont move substantially before year end.


Support lines and areas of major volume are like magnetized is how I view it.   You know how the magnet can attract but also repel depending on the polarity, I think this happens is because if everyone aims for 10,000 then there is many orders around this area.   If the price has run upto 10k then alot of these orders are sell orders from the speculators who want their money back and maybe to repay leverage they employed.   Hence this popular pricing becomes ironic, we are both attracted towards then repel from common or high volume areas.    This is more a shorter term effect imo.

I have a suggestion. Give an end date and time with a specific time zone, probably UTC. and base it on forum time. Maybe allow a grace period of maybe 5 to 15 minutes, but really, anyone who posts an hour later than that is just pushing it. They should have joined at the latest an hour BEFORE the deadline.

You could also go bitcoiny and base it on a particular block height, but I think forum time works best.

Finally, you could also have an "End" post, where anything before that is counted, but any post after that is too late, and that is final. Besides, your game, your rules.

*Edit* you did specify CET as the timezone. so....

Haiku syllables = 5 first line 7 middle line 5 end line

;)

Thx guys, I just wanted to know if I was doing it good......

I wouldn't mind of adding more people, but I just think its not fair for those that guess with there best thoughts for bring close etc...

I would hate losing myself to someone that actually shouldn't be there  :-\

Haiku Update leading :

illyiller                   4
Last of the V8s     4

goldkingcoiner      3


Biodom                2
buwaytress           2
jimbotoronto         2

LOL didn't know about that  :P
So I wrote a poem then  ??? Or just scribbled  ;D

Anyways thanks for the game mic  :)

Buddy it is not even a poem. :D :P

Mine is not even a good one I guess. :D It is hard to create a good haiku though that fits well on this game. Hurrah to some people that made it sounds cool. I'll try to make a good one next quarter.

A true Haiku should have some relation to nature within.  :P

Ohh that was a very quick end of your contest mic.

Upon inspiring your contest I'd created another contest on my local section.
Here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5190296.0  -- Anyone can join and welcome there especially WO brothers/sisters.
Only one Haiku Legend was there.

You can join there while waiting for a result here. :)

Good luck to those who are participating here including me. :D

This time it was pretty short. I mean just 9 days from 30 September to 9 of October  :-\

Edit: Ah, In all previous times it was just 9 days too.
oh, good luck to the winner, anyway. Let it be someone with bet above 30k  :D

Haha not sure its gonna be something quarter related or something new

Maybe pre and after HALVING or something

Mic Gs pants fell off
when he got hold of a cod
Its fine to rape fish

2 mins silence for suckers ---- 0 votes ---- 

V8 leading .....

My favorites, in no particular order.

*Steamtyme - quotes his prediction and has a nice thank you

Almost missed this one
Twenty-nine, five hundred please
Thanks Mister Mc-G


*DaveWave - self-referential and very haku-ish

I am the last one.
Last ones are the luckiest.
Is this a haiku?


*JimboToronto - a detailed forecast. Jimbo delivers.

One-six-nine-ninety
Autumn rally will fall just short
And then dip slightly.


*kurious - strong reference to WO hats, how not to love this?

The bull will return
And prove holders right
Inevitably

Mic and Eddie’s hats
To be correct by Christmas
Would be delightful


*goldkingcoiner - no figures, but he manages to squeeze some trading advice in 17 syllables. Sweet.

Bitcoin whales lurking.
No pain no fear no shaking.
Leverage shitcoins.


There was no lame-ass haiku in the whole bunch IMO.
We should be proud :-)

EDIT I noticed this isn't in the list at the head of the thread. Maybe too late an addition?


*Globb0 - A crossover haiku: it feels like a limerick for some reason. Weird and tasty!

Mic Gs pants fell off
when he got hold of a cod
Its fine to rape fish

Bro, You are bit early for next prediction game. may be try after 31 Dec 2019?

OK then, Ill write one too.

Getting deleted
Fuck you Fatman is disliked
But he's still a fuck

Or maybe

Mic's a true buddy
Always makes good on his word
Winner is always paid

Moral and ethics
Man's worth, measured by his word
Be true to yourself

V8 still leading, HAIKU vote closes 16th October

Thanks for posting the game! Sadly I found this thread too late - let me contribute a bit to it. I probably would not have qualified on merit anyway.

These are the calculated numbers from the 182 posted numbers/members:

Average: $13,452
Median: $11,500
Mode: $10,000 (calculated on values rounded to nearest significant digit ~ rounding to nearest $100/$1,000/$10,000 gave the same result)

I doubt the price will be below $7,200 or above $14,400. My personal guess: $11,888
(I understand I am not eligible to win anymore - guessing just for the sports.)

Statistics 101:
Average = Also known as mean - you add up all the numbers and then divide by the number of numbers.
Median is the "middle" value in the list of numbers. To find the median, your numbers have to be listed in numerical order from smallest to largest, so you may have to rewrite your list before you can find the median.
Mode is the value that occurs most often. If no number in the list is repeated, then there is no mode for the list. (hence rounded to $100 and $1,000)
Source: https://www.purplemath.com/modules/meanmode.htm

tomorrow the Haiku vote poll ends.... take a vote....

7633

here we go

ZOMG The price is 8008lE55



All in!

W00ps, i forgot about this one but just for fun I will guess 26,375.

my guess $ 32,000 USD
winning or not I think everyone will be happy with this price  ;D


haiku

In effect forthwith
suddenly rich bitcoin be
at the old money

made with https://www.poem-generator.org.uk/haiku/  :P

my guess -  USD 9249.00

my guess $ 9.943 USD   :D

And I guess you didn't read the rules ;)

Hint: Voting ended a week ago...

An unstable world
will send the bitcoin price up,
right up to the moon.

^
Haiku winner congrats!, thx for everyone for sharing thoughts and making a guess to win some precious BTC.
Also thx for the nice haiku input.

Gonna lock the thread and re-open last 2-3 weeks of the quarter...

Good luck to all and let us go "right up to the moon" <----- line from V8, no plagiarism :P

My guess that user can still be participating in guessing here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php topic=5188987.msg52722853#msg52722853) for the Q4 prediction.

And my guessing was right if your name was there in the voting list fort sure I will choose you.
https://i.imgur.com/14Eczsz.jpg

Maybe a bit early, though I wanna blow the thread alive cause the price is a bit sideways and i'm curious where we will end, I don't know why but every game Globb0 is some kind of magnet for the price to hoover around a big time of  the % of the game ::)

Damn Globb0 why didn't you go for an ATH kinda guess  8)

Though let the luckiest guy win and I hope to pay the biggest amount possible of .125 worth of BTC on end of Q4

Cheers to all the participants!!!!!!!!!!

15,431    LFC_Bitcoin

 ::)

Dont worry about it, I put in a very negative guess at the time and even though we are closer I'm now considering in this contest at least its moved too quickly and there is high possibility we dont settle near to my guess for year end but actually rebound higher.   15k is a fair distance for such little time but the price never moves in one direction continually and its been going down a while, generally  we can see it rebound upwards making 10k by year end.
  My price lighting up as correct for a day along the way doesnt do me much good in that scenario, I thought we'd drift down and be circling in the region for 6k.   Moving more sharply means we have speed to bounce still, 200 day average is rising and thats possibly where inertia leads us.

Damn, you will get all my 'merit' if that comes to pass! Damn, got a small BTC woody just thinking about that price. :)

Maybe you are too negative. You know, we all know that anything can still happen. The game is not "played" yet.

I’m never negative  ;D

I always just follow the narrative as how it’s written day by day ...

Just need to hold this level for another 4 weeks and I'm sorted  ;D

Just another $27,269 pump and I'm there :)

Could happen ;)

Waiting for the Amazon news to break

Good thing that I missed the thread or I would go with close to $17k. Always optimistic with bitcoins price 😁

These guys are nuts LOL

You lot rock!

Surely living up to your self-proclaimed interwebs' name.  ;)

That amazon speculation been here for years already, seems no positive news yet and I don't think that would help you win in this competition as 27 days left, its not likely to happen, but OP continues his very exciting game, we can always put that into consideration as we don't know when exactly that big surprise will come out.

Good luck!

Damn who to send a old year/new year present ??

Which range should we look at closely ??

6890       morvillz7z
7000       Globb0 *                    (previous winner)
7080       aundroid    *
7187       Spray.
7266       irsada
7375       dragonvslinux *
7510       illyiller            *H

Last few weeks and we are ranging in here atm ....

Who's gonna make it someone in this range or something completely different??

Don't rule out this lot:

9455       markdario112616 *
9599       jojo69
9666       Totscha
9722       trumpman
9800       rdluffy

;)

The fat lady has yet to sing...

https://i.imgur.com/qJ8PEiR.png

https://i.imgur.com/GDT9ee0.png

I'd say the bets in the [6200...8000] range seems to be the most promising.

Or this lot  ;D

We need someone to make statistic who have average closest price so far. In all games that he was part of. I see Globb0 close again.  I was only once close and played like 5 games so far.

Globb0 has been very close in many of these lists....

Time for him to call out some high prices  ;D

For the interested .....

We are closing in to the end of Q4.....

Now I do like those lists games but maybe wanna do a completely different thing or a similar thing or whatever, if someone has some good ideas please share them in this thread, I would like to work around the halving event next year, I had in mind a game that end like a month before the event and the highest price from start of the game, or highest price in the last 2 week of the game or at a set date or.....??

Then maybe later on an similar game for after the halving....

Also I would like to make a side competition like the Haiku’s but something different this time, if any ideas....

I know there are many more creative people in here as myself so share some thoughts thx

Also maybe is it better to exclude some new members or verily low activity/merit/account farmers and how to do or how to approach this matter?

Add a rule like the good Campaign managers do, something like 3 or 5 earned merit received in the last 120 days. This is very easy to follow, as the in merit history of an account you see only the merits sent/received the past 120 days.
So quick look at the profiles merit history can easily give you overview if you gonna accept or decline the application/entry :)

I think at least 50+ earned merit would be good

50 merit in a couple of months cuts out a lot of perfectly serviceable members who don't get noticed all that much. You can fluke 3-5 in that amount of time. 10-15 is a more solid figure.

Even with 3-5 merit will filter a lot of low effort posters of course, the higher the requirement the better. This solves also the problem with the low activity and account farmers.
On the other side with a higher merit requirements many will complain that only Merit Cycling Clubs Members (according to someone who I won't name, no more drama nor walls of text are needed here) will be eligible to participate, so maybe we need to find the golden mean...

At this time last games where always at least 10 merit required, though it seems not enough as I see a few where I have my doubts....On the other hand 30-50 merit or something should be doable from start of the merit system, though at some boards merit is being used less as in other boards, and I don't wanna exclude contributing members for a opportunity of fun and maybe winning something.

Of-course this is why I like to hear some suggestions :D

3-5 filter low hanging fruit
6-10 = maybe good minimum
11-15 = maybe also good, but maybe too high. Some good members who aren't noticed won't get this much.

50+ = account farmers who have multiple alts can easily get this and stuff it all into one account (at the risk of getting all their alts linked together by a merit abuse bounty hunter.)

Hmmm tricky

Thats maybe why they won't risk it cause it's still very random, and if they would and been caught is a good thing as well.... Not?

Surprised my Haiku actually got 2 votes (sweet of you guys) and threw mine against someone who also used number plays;)

If ATH breaks and one of us 20k+ people win, it will be epic. Got to say though, I'm "disappointed" we're not seeing any frenzied action so far this month. Kind of miss the crazy swings coming up to Christmas. Gotta give them something to talk about otherwise we'll all get bored and watch the kettle boiling...

Exclude brand new members yea because its a forum contest and people have to been around, read topics and be part of the community discussion for at least a while.   The problem with merit is that its not as liquid as I would like to see it, I want to see it last all the way down from the sources and exchanged between members onto the smallest elements or the new blood in the community.   Its possible the river runs dry before it reaches every corner of the forum.
   We definitely always will need the newest members to feel this forum is open to them.   So any rule on merit I think should focus on recent activity rather then the larger numbers in requirement, anybody new isnt going to have 50 merit and they might just have been reading mostly for 6 months not posting.   I'd set any merit as low as 5 within the last few months, so they would have needed to have been an active poster in those months and say maybe a member of Bitcointalk for at least 3 months as a requirement though that part could be longer if wanted.
   Im totally certain theres a ton of people who havent and wont gain 5 merit in 3 months, I'd guess the bulk of forum members are either not posting that actively or just never gain the attention of someone with merit.  I do think that is the silent majority even within active forum accounts but I havent double checked any available stats possible on that question tbh.

He needs to issue a declaration/threat to eat his hat if Bitcoin doesnt get six figures by next year.   Maybe a suitable leather hat cooking away on live webcam feed while a countdown ticks down would force the issue to the upside.

https://t.co/9Sds6TtSmz?amp=1


I was close last time or thats how I remember it, it didnt move as fast as I thought it might.  

https://i.imgur.com/HxOgmU6g.pngDaily bars

So if price purely stays glued to the rails right now we arrive at 6454 on contest end.   If price jumps to the upper rail, another trend since July that'd be about 6920.   If we should completely derail, I'd guess 5380 for where we could settle but I think slow not fast might be the best guess.   Breaking both these downward trends could be 8310 or 9773 for this contest end and 9773 is not a bad guess as it formed alot of the summer lows.
  Do nothing go nowhere till year end I reckon is 7439.  Thats the Oct end low roughly, just prior to the Chinese speech

Just eliminate Newbie accounts and minimum 5 merit as stated above should sort out almost all the bad fake accounts. Any legit newbie unfortunately won't be able to join, or he could still post an opinion.

Terrible if 7 becomes resistance instead of support.  :)



I'm growing my hair balder as fast as I can, ready for my yourtube career

I was thinking these are a good honey pot to look for those accounts, but now they have been warned. :P



Agreed.


I vote they cannot be on my ignore list. ;D

I agree with you about the first part of your above statements, Globb0, but I am wondering if you are recognizing a pattern about bald youtubers or is just the "baldie" angle going to be your particular signature approach in your anticipated upcoming youtubering career?

Surely, there seems to be a kind of natural tendency for a decently large number of guys to not worry about the bald part coming to fruition.  It kind of comes upon many guys whether wanted or not, but most guys don't really strive towards accelerating such progress in that direction, but some guys will just shave the whole fucking thing off because at a certain point it is no longer fruitful to continue to try to appear NOT bald when the actual real world situation is so obviously the opposite.

Tone Vays comb forward specifically    ;D

I like your games and winner take all is traditional but what I saw from Theymos's art contest is that because the winnings were divided also subjectively based on his opinion, many more participants took entry and there were many winners. It felt like a real success.
Maybe a game which has multiple winners and more chances to win however the total winning amount could remain the same and be divided. . Something like, players would need to make 3 guesses to compete,ie. 1.Guess the UTC time and date of the halving, 2. The closest price guess at a chosen time, 3. and perhaps even a subjective allocation such as your idea of Haiku's of which could be voted upon in a poll by the players. You pick your favorite 10 and we vote.   
That's my 2 satoshis,  Thanks again for the games

Think the beauty of the games before was how simple they were (and those who wanted to display a bit more genius would add in the TA and haikus).

The TA addition is a must I think for Speculation, but maybe a different form of poetry. Limericks (Irish and supposed to be very silly anyway)?

Maybe next game, not only guess the price, but guess the month's/quarter's high and low. Closest to the price still wins, high and low guesses secondary prizes? I won't mind contributing to a small pot for that kind of thing;)

I am distressed....about 1/2 a month to go and I doubt that I will reach my $11,111.11 guess for the high on December 31st, 2019.

Alas, the 2013 BTC Kool-Aid was strong with the force in this one! :)

Would it not be great however if I was correct to see the price pop back up to around that? Alas, better odds of being Natalie Portman's

Love Puppet at this point. (Wait! That means I still have a chance for either!) :)

Yeah reaching 11,111 will be tough, but never say never in bitcoinlandia :D

Cheeky girls touch my bum

As long I don't have to touch it.... then its all good with me bro :D

I believe this guessing game will become more exciting once the day for the next halving is reached. 8)

6370       Millionero *
6383       sgbett        *H
6400       Phil_S

pfft looks like I got pincered :D ... 6377-6391 is a pretty tight range!

Its your European popular music

@Searing: as it stands, I am closer than you to be a Love Puppet of any number of attractive actresses... as long as it's not that of some self-exiled runaway US Presidential hopeful in the Bahamas...

@Globb0 you are the cheeky boi, now you got that bloody song stuck in my head... believe it or not it was popular in the noughties in Southeast Asia too... blame MTV and karaoke.

Have no fear, surely the gods will favour me.   Just right now Iam floating in elysian fields as my guess shines just right.   I have to post right now as I severely doubt we can stay just here for the remaining two weeks of the year, still thats close cant be mad about it.    My rough take is we are not especially going to settle lower but I have to keep looking for momentum, I presume we are in speculative cycles not driven to a point exactly.

https://i.imgur.com/3KdAp1r.png

We are going to drop down to 5.5k and rebound like a cannonball. Screenshot this and show it to your grandchildren. Tell them: "His prediction made absolutely no difference to a hodler, but he did give me a merit sometimes. Ah, Goldkingcoiner. What a guy."

Archived (https://web.archive.org/save/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg53375904#msg53375904)  ;D

Me and JSRAW just released a music video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jxz48jvpTMQ
We Can Win The Race

I know that it might not matter what a mere fan wants, but I am still rooting for the Hairy or the Hairy area of the price predictions to win (even though Hairy does not want to win).

I could give less than two shits about the potential winnenings of either you or JSRAW.

You two (and your potential winnenings) and your lil video too, can go suck bags of dicks, as far as I am concerned  :P :P :P (from one fan's non-emotional perspective).

 :D :D :D :D :D

Yeah but nearly two weeks? Really?

I do understand that close to the current price tends to be a decent ball park idea of a short-term throwing out of a price prediction, but that does not mean flat for two weeks, does it?

Seems that it would more likely mean: 1) down and then up or 2) up and then down rather than 3) flat for two more weeks, especially in this particular bat country.  ;)

Will it stay at around 7K-range or shoot somewhere completely different?? I guess nobody mind a few K up, expect some bears .....  :D

This chart (https://i.imgur.com/HxOgmU6.png) posted prior is irritatingly small but still we are within the boundaries outlined.   The very recent top price was the horizontal line on the chart and current trading price has us between the two descending lines, a kind of messy channel giving us an upper and lower target every day for the price and it is descending until we breach that channel.
  So to answer purely 7k on the year end, it would be outside this channel so I would have to guess its not probable.   Doing nothing even with no great change if we consider this latent drift in price it has us lower then 7k.
Of course theres variance and it will be quite close anyhow.

Ignore jjg  ;D he's rooting for wrong guy this time. even hairy retracted from his statement, kinda   ;)


Tough nut to crack.


Don't hold your breathe for any parabolic pump.

Bunch of Incel giggling... ;D

I have created an auto-updated leaderboard page for this competition - https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

It takes the entries from the second post of this thread, calculated the delta - how close the prediction is to the current price, then sorts the whole list and displays it, with each predictions delta added as a second column.

But But will it matter to be pincered in that range??  :-*

Is it Bitstamp price, cause that still important as we follow Bitstamp for the game?

Sweet, I'm in 56th place.

This is really nice, here's what the Top 10 closest predictions looks like right now:

I'm using coingecko price since that's what I'm familiar with, I'll see if Bitstamp has a public API and update if possible


Also, I will add the rank positions so it will be more clear what everyone place is. I'm open to more suggestions if anyone has some. Also, fellow coders can contribute at https://github.com/Tiramisu77/bct-game-leaderboard

Edit: done and done

56 out of ?  :P

When will be the announced the next competition if there will be a next competition of course? I already missed the first one and this one, I don't want to miss a third one, please, it's really fun :)

I'm still looking for some ideas, probably the first game to open will be somewhere in January.... involving the upcoming halving, as this will be the main thing to happen in 2020 I guess and where very much people have very different thought about, i'm only looking what I will do for excluding some none contributing members or alts, probably some activity, earned merit change , still thinking over it.

56 out of 181.

#winning

Sweet +1

@mic add this into OP too, some might miss this comment.

^
Done

Then indeed you're on the winning side :D

Just realized there was a haiku voting poll already in place. You were way ahead of my suggestion mic. I guess what they say about brilliant minds could be true  ;)

33 out of 181, not bad.

For the sake of the vast majority including myself, I hope NOT to win in this game.

I have one suggestion I have always been thinking about the games. Didn't know you were planning to do more... but if you do insist of spending the little BTC you got left after your boating accident... :P

The thing is that being first in chosing a date is somewhat "penalized" in that you can be boxed and can't do anything against. I would predetermine the boxes in such a way that if several people decide to chose the same "box" (ie: from 7200 to 7400) they all share (divide) the prize. That way more probable ranges will have more people to share the price, yes, but they won't wait till later to see if their initial choosing is too "crowded" and chose a better one. I think that will make for a more "honest" chosing with no consideration what other people have chosen. And results would be much more reliable about what people really think could be the right choice even if they have to "share" the prize.

Not sure if I have explained it well.... I could do better otherwise... some other time. Too much drink tonight. Cheers!

Yes I did suggest that some time ago, slots probably that are preset?

Doesn't have to be a secret if they are gone or not, the fun is seeing the guesses.

Yeah, that's it, preset slots!

Yes, preset all the sluts.

#flattered

I do understand....

Or like maybe when a guess is made other person have to guess with a margin like 25 up and down of the other person like you chose 7200 then only from 7225 or below 7175 are available....

Or like every 200 $ starting from zero till...... is a box and every one in that box has to equally share the price ....
Like 10 persons in that box everyone gets 1/10 of the price....??

What would be best one of those

Or just how things are going....

And yes I buy some corn just to support the games after the personal losses .......

Yes both options could be valid. The first option (automatically reserving 25 over and under the guess price) would probably the better and easier to implement.

That would encourage participants to be faster in their predictions in contrast to what happens now in which it is "technically" better to wait. Of course it is "just" a game, a free one thanks to your generosity, but still there is money (and not a trivial amount for most) on the table. Plus everyone likes to try win, money or not, because that is part of the fun.

On the other hand, the predefined slots which multiple people can choose if they believe that will be the price even if they would have to share it has an additional advantage. There is a possibility there might be more happy winners. But on the contrary the prize would be less impresive for each of them.

So yes, both options might be interesting but they have different pros and cons.

If it would be me, probably I would go with the first option because everything is easy to understand and manage and it is the less change to current "rules". Instead of just making sure a pick hasn't been taken before, participants (and you when updating the list) just have to make sure their pick is $25 apart from any other previous picks.

Easy and it will encourage to make picks as soon as possible. And still there can be only "ONE winner that takes it all" lol

Or go with the shareable slots if you want to allow for the chance of multiple winners sharing the victory. That would also make for an interesting experiment to see how many people decides to go with their guess no matter if there are already a bunch of others on the same slot. That is not currently possible and people gets forced to either box someone (which I consider somewhat impolite and try to avoid) or go for a second best guess, or third...

BUT... that alternative would not encourage participants to make their pick fast. Maybe on the contrary, it would still be better to wait and decide as you can always share the spot even if previous participants picked it first.

So I would go for the first option, yeah.

P.S.: In fact both alternatives are the same being the difference if the slots can be shared (which doesn't encourage early picks) or are unavailable for next participants (which encourages early picks in some way).

Back upto 3rd place I see  8)

https://i.imgur.com/H8DKxW8.png

Source: https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

Dragon, Christmas is approaching and I've been a very good boy. Maybe Santa ticks it up several rackets, enters top gear and burns the nitro.

Still very dull end of the year, so am hoping for a lot of fireworks in the final week. The way things been going, can't help but smell something round the 2020 corner. Pure psychology, something got to give.

We're too close!

Stay on target....!

Yeah, we're so close and it is 7 days left and this is very exciting.

I didn't see now that there is a chance to win those who are predicting $10k price up (including me).

---

I have also a thread contest like this inspired by @micgoossens works, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5190296.0.
Only one participant who predicting in a line of $7k range price and that was @cabalism13.

But but first spot at the moment.............

Sometimes, some reliable TA is all you need 8)


Notice how we're now exactly in the middle of next weeks candle  ;D

https://i.imgur.com/0J4xtE5.png (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.0)

^
But but what if a 3K sudden pump occurs??

I wouldn’t mind at all  8)

Hahaha, I wouldn't mind either  :D :D
5 days to go....

I'll place my bet on you @dragonvslinux

$7187 on bitstamp atm.

Thanks for your vote of confidence, but I think it's unlikely I'll win this bet. Coming in Top 10 I'd say is very likely, Top 5 probably, maybe even Top 3.
Going sideways for 5 days seems as unlikely, therefore we'd need to break down and back up, or visa versa, back to where we were... which I'm not entirely convinced about right now.


That'd be no problem, I'd gain more than $921.87 so can live with that  8)

Like dragonvslinux asserted it seems very difficult that BTC prices are going to stay flat for nearly another week at this time of the year, but you really never know with Bitcoin. 

Also, remains much easier to attempt to bet on the possible winners when we are in the last lap of the race rather than nearly three months earlier, and frequently if we are in some kind of holding pattern, there can be some confidence to assert that the holding pattern is going to continue to hold, but there could be some whales who are waiting and waiting and waiting to pounce, and even they cannot really be certain that they are going to end up being correct when the do attempt to pounce.

I would say that betting nearly three months ago was a much larger crap shoot, but surely retrospectively seems reasonable that BTC prices have done a considerable correction down from their 3.5x jump earlier in the year (April to June).  Frequently, the BTC price moves can be described as "retrospectively reasonable" when we look at them much later, as compared to when we are caught in the midst of them... when as mere small fishes (speaking for myself and likely the vast majority of posters on this forum) it can frequently be difficult to see our hands in front of our faces.

Talky talky talk. Where is your entry?

Problematic thinking Globb0.  You seem a tad bit distracted, for some reason.  Might need to bring batman out for this one.   ;)  Merry Christmas.

 :D :D :D

Back to the top to the dollar 8) Now just to hold this for 5 days, or pump up further $7.6-$7.8K, then correct back down to $7375 "new support" and sorted  ::)

https://i.imgur.com/n7Hnr8b.png

That man is to good for a free-roll entree......

hahahahaha

Something like that.




Try doing the guessing game(s) for "real" free and don't give out any bitcoins and find out what happens?

https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/woman-pointing-camera-above-high-angle-view-wide-angle-fish-eye-effect-smiling-mixed-chinese-asian-caucasian-business-45084253.jpg

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/batman/images/1/10/Scooby_Doo_Meets_Batman.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/340?cb=20100120225240

^
Never said or argue that though the definition of a free-roll is participate with only a chance to win something and no chance of losing anything..... so for a participant it’s for free, it never had to be free for the host, that also never been said....... come on JJG you’re smarter  :-*

I don't know why you want to argue publicly about this?  But you keep bringing it up for some strange reason?

https://media1.tenor.com/images/c4db6eae34c7c540bb29962cb03f52dc/tenor.gif?itemid=11030406


 :D :D :D :D :D

Still drangonvslinux leading the game

GL everyone, final days !!!

My TA is always leading the game  :P
I think my chances increased slightly now we've dipped down and popped back up. Trying to hold this $100 lead (https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/) for the next 50 hours will be a challenge though!

https://i.imgflip.com/2tfmu8.jpg


Well, this may be a bit of a stretch on my $11,111.12 usd, what a lame ass-guess.

I plan on 're-submitting' this amount on every one of these in the future till:

(a) I win!

(b) The BTC price frigging blows by the above amount and I won't care a hoot about this contest anymore!

Again, less than 3 days to go!

So my odds are essentially the same as being Natalie Portman's Love Puppet! Good to see I've not lost any ground there.

Brad

I am glad this thread got bumped, I was actually thinking about it a few days ago, had to check what my prediction was ($6000) and it seems I wasn't too far off.

What is really crazy is this, there was 181 people who participated and going by todays price of $7350, about 25 people predicted it would be lower and the rest 156 predicted it would be higher. It crazy how fast the sentiment changed when in Oct 2019 (when this thread was created) the price was around the same ($7800 or so), however people back then were more bullish than today.

I wonder if another thread was made, "What will BTC be at price of halving", then most people will probably (>75%) will probably post a lower price than a higher price.

competition is very tight at this time anyone can be a winner
is it only the first-ranked person to get this prize ??
I hope there are also consolation prizes for ranks 2 and 3  ;D

Normally you would be happy for anyone to win one of these games that mic is so kind to sponsor, except maybe a scammer but mercifully they don't seem to join.

But I'd hate for one of these arrogant-assed TA soi disant experts to win a goddam penny. They are useless at predicting price, they never admit when they are wrong which is way more than half the time otherwise they'd be quiet and would've fucked off.

If they win one of these it will be pure coincidence and annoying.

'Oh I'm doing it to help you (poor souls), you need to learn my method'

er no we need you to fuck off and learn humility for the next 17 years then don't bother coming back.


present your TA, fine, but do it without your arrogance.

be like water my friend

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213423.msg53477656#msg53477656
^
Please respond to that post cheers/THX

Please do use this Witchery on the next game as well..... Its really awesome!!!

Just to the winner of the game, I have always been very known for very fast payment.... Though the 31st at 00.00 is a moment where I probably cannot say my own name anymore etc

So I will look on the forum, cheer for the winner and pay the day after max two days (if i'm that F***ed up)...

I hope this is reasonable

Sounds sensible

Not that it necessarily matters more then a month from now but BTC seems to be respecting the boundaries of recent prior pricing.   Hence 7500 top and 6500 bottom (https://i.imgur.com/1xucCNo.png) could repeat, hence I still have hope for my bearish guess though its very slim chance with not much more then 24hr left.

Globb0 running hot??

Although I was still optimistic yesterday (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53473521#msg53473521), I do surrender. Not even a miracle can make Bitcoin get as high as my bet.
Thanks Mic for the contest and good luck to the rest!

We still have a day or so. I'm not conceding until the final hour. What a way to celebrate the incoming new year.

Totally agree, whoever wins this will be more based on coincidence than skill, given the probabilities of winning and the tiny margin or error (both time and price). I feel like most of the arrogant "moonshot to the moon" TA passed away with the breakdown of $9K though to be honest  :P Furthermore, while many public traders remain accountable by default (via for example tradingview where you can't edit/delete charts once published), I agree it's a shame there aren't more that transparently (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5209327.msg53335667#msg53335667) publish & review their calls (whether right or wrong (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.msg53267289#msg53267289)) publicly. I've personally tried to encourage other traders to do so, but unsurprisingly many aren't interested, or obvious reason  ::) Also completely agree that any trader trying to teach you "their method" should be instantly disregarded in my opinion. If you're not posting TA in order to discuss and acknowledge alternative perspectives, threre absolutely no point in doing so. The idea is to share your opinion as you learn from others that differ from yours. Thanks for sharing yours, very insightful.



Not sure who you're speaking to, but do you mean follow the tide instead of surfing the waves? Heard that one before, it's what made me a hodler  ;)

^
I'm surfing the waves.... Its just the BTC-narrative, main important thing is how to surf them waves, I mostly believe DCA-HODL=KEY, also cause i'm just no trader as a non TA expert of any kind.... So i'm lucky that the one strategy i'm able of doing also is the most effective one  :D

Last 11h and around 46 minutes till end of the game

Yikes! I feel like I'm going to be right about not winning this one  :P

https://i.imgur.com/HFfUP05.png (https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/)

Some final thoughts...
Without any "big moves", I'd guess someone in the Top 5 will win. A reasonable move up or down would give the Top 10 a chance though.
Be interesting to see what happens in the next 12 hours, best of luck to everyone close to the price, you know who you are!
Would also love if it the price moved $1000+ in either direction, just for someone much further down the list to win   :)
Also would either get a load of my buys filled, or I'd otherwise be up 15%. Sounds great either way  8)

https://i.imgur.com/Lc83zce.png

https://i.imgur.com/6wVomFE.png

I think it was possible to predict the approximate [6200...8100] range, assuming the sliding-down trend would continue (as it did) for 3 more months, but it would be harder to guess where we would end up within the range.

Pure hopium is now what I'm looking for! The grey box represents the price range in which I'd win the game :)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FwuON590/

Shout out to phil , don't worry bro win-loss is part of life. If it makes you feel better then think about hairy's prediction and the guy who was rooting for him continuously :D

Are we shifting???

I'd be betting on these lot now, hopium isn't working.
1. 7080 52 aundroid *
2. 7187 55 Spray.
3. 7000 132 Globb0 *
4. 7266 134 irsada
5. 6890 242 morvillz7z

C'on, you can still do it, still got plenty of time! Just try harder!

Come on Globb0, two time winner would be extraordinary!!!!!!!

Would definitely bow for my new GURU :D

Use the force


https://media.giphy.com/media/wOzIYkF2USJPy/giphy.gif

PUMP PUMP PUMP!

Oh wait, your bet is on the other direction WTF :P

Its not going to hit 7000 right on the deadline, problem here is its too close to the wall.   If we get to 7000 its right next to a trend, unlikely we break through without news or volume so we hit that wall and rebound some i.e. its going above 7000.   It'd have to time that 7k mark just at the right moment, the more likely outcome is one of the people just above 7k is winning it.
  Aspirations upwards are capped at 7260 roughly again presuming no break of the recent top or pin formed this afternoon.  Leaving us in a range for the following peeps:

Its too crowded for me to even make the top 10  :'(      I drew my chart with crayons (https://i.imgur.com/D7vl294.png) so its also fair  morvillz7z and Koal-84 * have a slight chance if market should feel like a sell

True I have a little slot, but I can dream.

After 3 months, 3 out of a few hundred is quite satisfying in itself.

$7155 on bitstamp atm
countdown approximately 1 hour 45 minutes left, right?

we can see who the winner right now, the price wouldn't change that much.
Unless, come on pump it man :D
throw $1 million on bitstamp to get BTC0.1 (totally worth it) :D ;D

I think Globb0 has a good chance, may be a last gasp bear attack before the new year but we will hold.

https://s14-eu5.startpage.com/cgi-bin/serveimage?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.meme-arsenal.com%2Fmemes%2Fd2f25e024565666711584606f015b66f.jpg&sp=2bda566b4f284f90e6a0d3cfb3e42617&anticache=449744


OK, I'm about 7 hours away from making my guess. ;D

I would have to as well if this would be the second timing winning. Such a tiny chance of winning in the first place, doing it twice would say something...
My new target is therefore to come ahead of Globb0  ;D


Do you have a link to your TA? I see you have a star.

10 minutes forum-bro-hemians!!!!!!

Remember payment after newyear sleep.....  :-*

Pump Pump Pump!
1hr 10 minutes no?

gg thank you Mic

Congrats who is it??

Bitstamp closed $7171,33:
1. 7187 16 Spray.
Congrats!

Congrats! Spray!

Seems I missed this by just a bit. :) I had $11,111.12 USD.

I await your next Q1 speculation thread of 2020, so I can double down and bet the above again!

(Daddy needs a trophy girlfriend...don't ya know..if it hits that price I will crack like an egg!)

Ah, dreams...

Brad

Winner please PM me

I will send when I wake UP !!!!!

Congrats.... drunk AF atm ..................

Thanks  :)

wow 16$ only, in the German raffle which ended at 12 CET I missed the exact price by 11$. Thank you for observing the price. At 0 CET i had to spark off my firecrackers

Okay, i will provide you a Pubkey in the evening. Too tired after 12 hours of party now

Well, same here  ;D
Happy new year!

Congrats Spray and thanks again mic  :)
Good luck to all in this coming crypto year. Let this be the best ever year for Bitcoin :)

Always room for improvement mate!
Congrats tho ;)

Alright..... I am in recovery mode and ready to receive a PM from you to award your winnings

Cheers and GoodGame!!!

Also very impressive for another close one Globb0!!!

Good morning,
I dropped a message some minutes ago.

I have payed my debt

You should received by now...

Thx for playing and congrats!!!

Successfully received 12.500.000 Satoshis  :)

Thx for confirming, now the game has successfully closed!