Bitcoin Forum

I've witnessed that the wicks (abnormal buys/sells) have already taken place in the form of sell (see 1H chart on Binance) and the flag is still not broken towards any side. What do you believe this to be? A bull flag that's yet to shoot BTC to a much higher price than even 10k? This is what happened the last time when it started forming from 7444 area between June - July, 2019 and was shot up to 13970 forming a pole, but it went sideways (or I'd say range bound) for some time with a few small movements that included those 10% dumps and furthermore. Then it broke down to 7800 and 7300 further even after the bull flag pattern. Do you think it'll be opposite this time taking us to a new high for this year? It's November and based on my calculations, BTC had always risen upwards during the last 2 months of any year. What do you think about this?

In my opinion we're carving out a bull flag, yes:


I'm tempering my expectations though. For the next couple months I'd be surprised if we went much past the $11,000s. I think we're in a similar range to early 2016. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg52961669#msg52961669) A long slow sideways with an upward bias that will eventually bust out with authority towards $20K and beyond.

I also think we are in a stabilization phase and the next stage should be bull run, but unfortunately it is not known when it will come. It is possible that it will start this year, or maybe just around halving event in the middle of 2020. The good thing is that the market now looks much calmer and dump or panic sell is very unlikely.

Right now the market is good to stabilize, and the same is predicted to fluctuate within $9500. This is good opportunity for the day traders to get a regular profit. Probably the market will tend to change by the end of ongoing month marking its $10000 price by the month of December. Once after that can expect more growth to happen.

Usually the wedge gets smaller and smaller with each iteration of a scalp, so we'll see how much longer we can stay in this range. To be honest, I would expect a much wider ranger between low 8000s and spikes to a bit over 10000$. Guess Vegeta would be proud of it or just go insane :) I'm currently waiting for a drop and very much like the following trading range idea of ProwdClown:

https://i.imgur.com/HzU2UGM.jpg

I hope so. And it seems like this time, unlike the unstable 10k a few weeks ago, the price should remain quite steady when it enters the 10k range since the price pretty much have stabilized right now at 9.3k, when the prices pumps up, the market should be able to accept it.

Though id rather wish the bullrun happens by the start of next year though. At the very least, I want BTC to be solid at 9k and up so that if a market crash suddenly happens, it wouldn't fall too far and just go back to 9k

everything on the charts point to a big bull run starting with a soon-ish breakout. and the fundamentals are there too, there is lots of good news regarding bitcoin adoption these days on top of all that which should have started this breakout but for some reason it seems like the same range is being forced to stay even though the range is squeezed more into a compacted one each time it is tested.

Imo halvening is the biggest fundamental right now, this time people won't wait for months after it to start buying, everyone knows that halvenings preceded bull runs in the past, so everyone is super ready to buy as soon as the price starts taking off. If you look at this whole year's chart, there's very little slow and steady growth, most price increases were very explosive. This trend will probably continue, so we can easily go to $13-14k in the next jump.

I agree with you on market history which can always repeat itself but we have so many fundamental analysis that can trigger the price towards the bull and the bear at the moment.

The chinese blockchain innovations, the US adamant posture, btc halving, the whales traders and big trading exchanges hackers; all these and few more will determine the price of btc in the next 8 months.

I am of the opinion that btc market is stabilize and it might not be easy to know the direction it will go but as the popular saying - trend is your friend, follow it.

Bitcoin always prove every year that this is the best performing asset, I just got this from my feeds in one social media,
This data is something that we should consider now, because, next year we could have another all time high, it's time to take action

I don't see the next leg up coming so quick this time because BTC almost broke down its strongest support at 9k just a few moments ago. If it gets strongly declined, then 8750 and may be 8300 is to be seen. I am not too sure about my targets as I'm bullish over BTC and would like to see BTC growing alone just like the rest of you here 'except the shorters'.

Then the halving might already be priced in. Plus if that's what the plebs are expecting, the whalecumulators might play themselves against it, and profit.

We are, I'm optimistic with that, no TA would convince me because this market has never been measured by TA only.
The price now is currently $9K only, and I don't think at the last month of the year we will start dropping again, that's a bad movement going to the year where btc halving is scheduled.

Its not always yet last year do broke anybodies hope for another bull run which happened on year 2017 but it didnt but rather it do just simply tank
out its price until on next year on where it do make some significant move.Simply means its not possible to have successive price movements on yearly basis
yet it would neither jump,tank,or drop.Good to see if we do at least break that 10k resistance before this year ends and thats already a good holiday gift for anybody.  ;)

Maaan, everything you wrote sounds Greek to me because I'm not into TA, but I do think $10k is going to be the next stop once bitcoin can break out of this range its been in.  The market vibe is definitely more bullish right now than bearish, which is a change from only a month or so ago when bitcoin was at $7k.  I'm just not sure how long it's going to take to get to $10k.  Bitcoin tends to stay stuck for long periods of time and it might be in one of those periods at the moment, even though it's been in the $9k range only since Oct. 26th. 

I don't believe in TA myself, but bitcoin sort of lends itself to TA since there's no real way to do fundamental analysis with it.  The only thing traders can do is look at the price chart and hope history repeats itself.

I hate patterns though. But by following recent events I'd rather say that maybe we got a solid pack of evidences to at least considered that the market will go somehow up till 2019 closes. Still unpredicted. In addition if it fails to go up at the time there still 2020 to put our hopes on, and the most awaited event will show up and for sure market would go up, maybe bull run (hope so) will come in notice.

Probably the best thing you could hope for a sure bull run would be the halving by 2020. It's probably the most solid and best bet most crypto users have in assuming that BTC would experience a bull run. Just looking at past examples, every halving has let BTC experience a huge bull run. 2012 halving resulted in BTC reaching 100$, 2016 halving resulted in BTC reaching 6k$. History repeats itself, my dudes.

Still 188 days until the halving. After that we will see a new ATH between $50k-$70k. Spike could go as insane as $250k so fasten your seatbelts.
My estimate is an ATH in about 250 days....

Current price action doesn't seem very bullish to me, so I expect this to drag on for a while as there are various formations that could be forming as we speak.... only a proper break up or down will highlight the correct one.

Some people think we broke out of a descending triangle, but it doesn't look to be so as that usually results in much higher volume generation, something we don't have right now.

We're still well above the $7.3k mark so that is still positive, but I have to admit to not be as confident anymore as I was some days ago.... glad I'm just hodling and not trading my gut feelings.

Many people hope for that to be happen and let see if there's another miracle to come since there are positive output that can bring the price to another ATH but let see how things going in next following days since if there are many people still believing that we can get another big pump next for sure it will create a big impact to the market.

Based on the current price of bitcoin I think its become weaker so I expect a drop to $8700 to $8500 which is a golder ratio 0.618 on 4hr timeframe higher to lower candle if you plot the fibonacci.
But its too early to predict what will happen to bitcoin before and after the end of this year, I will be happy if bitcoin will be back to $15k level.

It could be on that price range of days/weeks if it breaks the support in 8700 before going up again and I'm just speculating this thru the RSI.
Investors who were just getting into bitcoin because of Xi Jinping could panic by now and if they sell, that's when it could break. I guess it should happen before BTC can move up to $10K.  Not a year to expect the price to reach even half of the ATH.

It will happen, we don't have to worry. Meanwhile, I think bitcoin will make another adjustment to the price, so maybe it will get down at the weekend, and it will back to increase again in the next weeks. Usually, that is what happens if bitcoin price is at the weekend, but that will not always occur to bitcoin, especially if there is a good news release, and that will push the price to back to the higher rate. So we need to prepare this time, don't miss the chance to buy another bitcoin if you want to buy it at a low price.

New ATH only 2 months after halving? Possible, but still unlikely if we take the 2016 halving as an example. It takes 1.5 years from that halving to 2017 December $20k, and I doubt that things will develop faster after the next halving happens (May 2020). All this is based on the assumption that history will repeat itself, but it should not be taken for granted.

Regarding OP, the current drop can be just another one bull trap in a row. These days price does not stay too long on the same level, and after a few bull attempts to reach $10k (I think $9700 was the closest), it was expected that things would go in the other direction again. Game of buying cheap and selling at a higher price is never-ending.

The market went down almost 5% today and it is difficult to understand how the market will react all the time, i did not expect the market to go down like this but the market has its own way and no technical analysis can predict these movements, i thought the market will rise in the next two months and would have a correction after January but who knows we might see a rally after this correction.

Uh yes. I just noticed. Quite nice drop. We are moving further away from the $10k promised by OP. HE was drinking to much of hopium.

Indicators do not have to be complicated and if you do not understand them you don't have to try to read and understand them because they are confusing. What you need to know is that bitcoin used to do this one thing and when that thing happened the price went up, now it looks like it is doing the same thing and it could then go up once more if it reacts the same way.

Now, that doesn't mean everything that thing happens price goes up, there is no correlation or a must or anything that forces the price to do it every time but it is just a guess that whenever that thing happens it goes up so it could go up again, it is just a prediction, a guess but at least the OP that wrote this gave a reason for why he thinks it could instead of saying he just "feels like it" instead.

Distribution before the halving would be expected though. That's exactly what happened in 2016. Whales sold into the hype in June, a month before the July halving, then the market crashed 40% over the next couple months.

Although some think that price is preductible in the last two months of the year, every year, that is not true.  Techical analysis is not always precise amd I don't think we can conclude that price will rise. Maybe that is a wishful thinking according  to this time of year but definetely isn't something that we can base our decisions on.

If the week volume will not going to recover yet then we might still see another drop of the price. We can't expect a price heading north yet since the market is not yet ready for a price jump.
Whatever the FUD they spread, a real investor will never dump because they are scared of losing. Dumping at this current price is a big mistake. Let the whales turn the table and consider this as a normal results of crypto market.

honestly, i think that in the coming months until april next year the price will fluctuate between $7200 to $10300 and in that price range i mentioned it will fluctuate the price will be in the $8000 zone. It's good to be optimistic in this market, but we must always have a lot of caution and don't put exaggerated optimistic

It's impossible to not have people be too optimistic, mainly so with how crypto influencers on social media are bullish regardless of the price. It doesn't matter if the price is $9000 today and $1000 tomorrow, the same bullish predictions are made where these influencers pull out every possible metric to convince noobs of their research and whatnot.

Influencers notice from their statistics that a continuous bullish narrative generates far more views and clicks. People are generally long because they wait for $100,000 to become rich, which means that they have no interest in bearish content. It's even like that on Bitcointalk where a realistic not so bullish outlook will likely result in users to call you a troll or a fud spreader.

yes I think the current value of bitcoin is quite stable at $ 8000 - $ 9000. and I'm sure in a few months bitcoin will be bullish. because in the next year a lot of positive news will push bitcoin to the moon. like the news of bitcoin halving and the increasing number of countries that support cryptocurrency and blockchain will make bitcoin more expensive. I am optimistic that in 2020 the price of bitcoin can reach $ 25,000.

once again the price didn't rise in timely fashion so the weak hand traders pushed their big red sell button for no reason. and once again we saw the wedge become squeezed more into a smaller one with this round too. at this point the chance of seeing that big green jump is higher, the only matter remaining is "when" will it start.

as for halving that was mentioned i don't think any of this has anything to do with halving since in all previous times the effects didn't start this soon. although i agree that it is a big fundamental.

Of course it's priced in, we wouldn't see this year's big price action if not for the upcoming halvening, but it's not fully priced in, some investors still doubt, or wait for better opportunities to buy. And whales will indeed dump when the price spikes, and it's good because it corrects the market and prevents bubbles. But they aren't going to dump it hard enough to throw Bitcoin off its course, that would just mean a loss to them, because some other whales will pick it back up.

There has been a slight dip in the value now when it was least expected which makes it really difficult to make any predictions as the market is still too wild and yes I respect your opinion as your prediction is pretty much possible if everything goes as expected but I would still be prepared for both bullish and bearish market as well.

Btc has failed defend it's support at 9k and it's falling down to 8k. It's already sideways for more than a week from 9.2k and i'm sure it will make a movement up or down in near future, and it's actually happened.
Price crashed because no good news around and it will be struggling to reach 9k again, BTC need more good news to hook investors to buy again. Price so agile because people are not want to invest in a long run and just trade with quick profits in every trade

Your Technical analysis is on point , this is a perfect bullish flag  I hope the price doesn't defy it, I also hope the support at $8800 rejects the price thus we might have a bullish ride till possibly $11K, it very obvious that the price is experiencing a pullback to the nearest strongest support although more support at $7600 zone I am sure the present support would hold the price.

The dip pretty much predicted, just buy the dip.
It looks like the traders are playing the same thing as usual but give us a chance to pile up more Sats.
Probably some entities trying to intrigue sell-off events to buy at a cheaper price, but don't get shaken out because the chart indicates bitcoin heading to $10K.


https://i.imgur.com/1DWaveQ.png

Source (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Z2BfmcUg-BITCOIN-One-of-The-Possible-Scenarios/)

There is still a possibility that bitcoin will rise again and maybe this is the last decline and will increase again at the end of the year.
and now the price of bitcoin is around $ 8,800 and only a slight decrease from $ 9,000, and the current decline actually provides an opportunity to buy bitcoin, and there is a possibility that there will be a slight decrease again and if that happens I will take advantage to make a purchase before bitcoin increases again .

The chart was clearly providing us visible signals, in which traders could acquire hints on their respective assets. This helps us in obtaining proper analysis while market still correcting some inaccurate price movements. Everybody seems to be a bit of anxious nowadays, but still managed to control their fears because of huge amount of money involved. Buying the dip can be done but in a very secure plans because we can't just pick an asset randomly, shitcoins and other low valued coins will probably be included on your choices. That's why it's so important to do your deep research on those desired coins that we're about to purchase and hold.

Its too extended to be a bull flag, I would characterise this current action as negative or neutral at best.   My idea is roughly to identify a trend and if no clear repeated action to the upside or down is apparent then to try and chalk up the rough outline of a range to the price.

https://i.imgur.com/rzYkPwl.png

I did think we might rise a little more then this over the weekend, its in limbo.   Yellow is 200 day and 50 day is blue just below us and theres various possible trends that might provide us some support in addition but I'm thinking downwards more then this idea we regain 5 figure prices.   It will come around to a bullish sentiment but I dont believe in just hoping for it and I dont see it occuring for now.
  10k might be fair just like alot of targets mentioned but its not especially sustainable unless we repeat the step upwards on the lows also.  So I think we need to carve out more prices down below in a solid pattern and the lower prices is where the bullish action begins which is quite ironic I guess.

It looks like a Double Bottom pattern is forming.
If it is formed, it signals growth, besides, buyers in the market are felt. Most likely there will be hikes to the resistance level and possibly a pulsed movement up to 9000.
In another case, the price will not be able to break through the resistance level of 8870 and will decline to the old consolidation zone 8555-8680.

Bitcoin couldn't breach the resistance of $9700. It tried breaching it twice after that jump of $3k. But bears are strong there. Now Bitcoin is struggling at $8800 which is a strong support. But if it doesn't sustain, then we are going towards $7700. $10k is highly unlikely to be reached at this price point. There isn't much volume to sustain that required appreciation to reach $10k.

Nope, just buy bitcoin when the market in the bloodbath, even some major altcoins such as eth or bch aren't tempting for me to buy.
Just focus on bitcoin and you'll get the best results when the rally begins, at that time you may choose some altcoins that will follow the steps of bitcoin.

$10,000 down to $9,000 ... i bought it.
$9,000 down to $8,000 now ... i'm on my way buying it.
Then if gets dropped  lower than $8,000 ... i'll simply buy more bitcoins!

I'm bullish in my entire times ;D , the reason isn't only about the coming bitcoin halving next year , it's simply we are heading to something big called a cryptocurrency mass market adoption, I'm quite optimistic about this.
Ordinary people getting used to cryptocurrency stuff especially after the 'Starbucks will accept bitcoin' rumours popping up recently.

BUT, isn't buying now because of the halving, and expecting a market rally after the halving, causes the event of the halving priced to be already in?

You nailed it. I'm pretty sure the block halving is already calculated into today's price, which it has been for a long while now.... people expecting some sort of a mega bull run will be disappointed heavily.

It's a fundamental event for Bitcoin, but it's not not a one shot ticket to the moon.... the price has more than doubled from its $3.1k low, that's technically enough to compensate for the 50% reduction in block rewards.

Also, if the price doesn't go up more to sustain today's difficulty levels then miners will withdraw some of their hashrate and have the difficulty come down to where it's profitable again.

That's only what Wilhelm thinks though. He doesn't define the entire market. The halving being "priced in" means the entire market has priced it in, not just a few bulls on this forum. You also need to consider not just demand but miners withholding supply from the market.

BitHodler is also a counterpoint; clearly not everyone is bullish about the halving. ;)

I don't think so. The block halving will play an important role mentally and psychologically when we are like a month or two seperated.

If there are people who buy in prior to the halving event, they have done it last year already and added to their position when we tanked from $6000 to $3000. On top of that, the hype on social media around the halving is kinda tame as well, which is indicative of the event being too far away from where we are today. It will pick up next year.

Agreed on these sentiments and people should read this one off.I dont know why people are really too hyper bullish when it comes to numbers where
they are already mentioning unrealistic numbers.I didnt say that it wont reach out but its still long way to go. We might see a bull run on previous halving but
we cant be sure if it would happen on the upcoming one. Theres only two ways which is up and down but we shouldnt expect too much yet it would just
stress it out if it didnt able to meet up our expectations.

this suggests some people are pricing it in, that's all.

based on the actual stock-to-flow relationship, the market hasn't priced in the halving at all. https://www.ccn.com/top-german-bank-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-90000-after-halving/


i remember being bearish in the first half of 2016 and saying things like "the halving is already priced in"......i was totally wrong back then. i don't think any event is ever totally priced in until it happens.

yes since the beginning of entering the bitcoin market I was always ready when the market was bullish and also when it was bearish. as an investor and bitcoin trader we must be good at exploiting the volatility of bitcoin. we must be able to take advantage of every opportunity to decrease and increase well.
and of course we also have to be patient and not easily panic when bitcoin dumps. in my opinion when bitcoin dump is a good opportunity to add to our bitcoin because I'm sure after a dump bitcoin will pump higher.

I believe the stock-to-flow ratio "theory" only focuses on supply, but what about the demand? Stock-to-flow ratio is originally used for commodities, like gold. Gold never mooned. BUT this might be good.

Bitcoin's "Age of Stability". 8)

the stock-to-flow model assumes a constant level of demand. in reality, demand waxes and wanes with bull and bear markets. if $90k is the model's target post-halving, then bubble hype (temporary speculative demand) should take us considerably further.


bitcoin is a commodity like gold, right down to the mining analogy.

i would say gold did moon. it's up like 3600% over the past 50 years. between 2001 and 2011 it went up 650%---nothing to sneeze at.

It is likely that a long consolidation in the $ 10k area will slide early next year, but this year it should experience an impulse below the $ 8k area again, at least for December. If it remains in the zone that you wrote, then the expectations will not enter the $ 25k zone even though it remains in an uptrend. the results of trend accumulation always occur 1 year after halving progress if you look at what has happened.

I do agree there are a lot of very positive news signals and fundamentals are good as it always have been, but last year when we had our DIP in the sub 4K we also had more positive news signals and though we did continue with decreasing of price, but nonetheless I do think cause of sentiment we had all over this year the price might go up instead of going down.... It might be kept under control for a few months till the halving dates kick in more and more.
What i'm most curious of is will we see serious action PRE halving, ON halving or few weeks/months AFTER halving... ??
Though I do cheer good and positive news cause user count will keep increasing ant thats the most important of the whole BTC story, more and more different people will be owning some % of the total amount of available BTC

Maybe I'm too optimistic if I would say that Bitcoin will go over $10k which it looks like to be less possible in the stretch.
Having some insights that there is no bull run happen this year and it is too hard to make a huge jump if the market demand won't get stronger. Maybe we could expect a huge hike early next year as halving come near to happen but can't speculate if Bitcoin price will reach for another $20k.

And for now, I don't feel that it drop more below $8k. I'm too positive that it remains to $8k - $10k range.

I think bitcoin won't pump to 20k before the halving or even after the halving. Just like it used to before bitcoin price pump in 2017 while the latest halving was held in 2016. I'm sure it will be the same next year. Bitcoin won't pump hard next year, but the next 2 years i'm sure bitcoin will be people demands and the price would be so high due to the less supply and harder to get

and why is that?
i am not just asking you, but all those who say  they don't see the rise happening. i am honestly confused as i don't see any reason why not. of course i don't expect it to happen due to the market manipulation at large but i don't expect it not-to happen either.
this reminds of the first quarter of this year when we were seeing the same thing! everyone had given up on seeing a rise due to 2018 being a fall year and price not rising for many months being stuck at <$4k level. the funny thing is many people (just like now) were waiting for halving to see the rise. now we are easily 200% above that!

Any possibilities can be happen, for me pump and dump both are almost have equal percentage to happen. Like what i read in this forum when people expect a lot in halving, they must be already bought in cheap price, and human nature, when pumped there must be people who already prepared to dump their coin after get profit. Maybe let's just see which one is bigger, dumper or demands because of halving.

Wild guess: warm-up rally to re-test the ATH in Q1 2020 (maybe into April), followed by a bearish correction through halving (similar to summer 2016). After that, the real fireworks will start.

People thought the $14K rally was the beginning a 2017-like run. I think it was more like hitting $500 in November 2015. Lots of bullish ranging and accumulation needs to happen before we can see another bubble.

Or no demand/stagnation, because the halving might have been already priced in?


With Bitcoin's volatility, what price would make it stable? I believe 6 digits. $1,000 moves would be 1% or less.

Plus did gold go through an "Age if Volatility"? Is its price now, by a some extent, in equilibrium?

Aren't we headed towards getting a 10k (or maybe higher) shot again?

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises  ;D

Current sentiment, price movement etc reminds me quite a bit same time last year, or more precisely November 2018. Obviously we know what happened soon after, although it seems almost too obvious, that it is going to repeat last year?

In numbers, that would be ~50% retracement from here, so somewhere ~<$5000, followed by halving fueled upward movement through 1H of 2020, slightly >4x growth, which would place us near ATH by June. Although halving events so far has seen significant correction before the actual event, so...?

I suppose i'll just hold (and add slightly perhaps), no idea really what the price does.

This is the price where everyone is hoping it will be at so near to the end of the year and usually with holidays where people are spending on friends and family it is the best time to be optimistic about the price reaching above $10,500.
It also helps with those people wanting to send money overseas across different countries to their families and having the cryptocurrency the least expensive and easiest way to do this also seems like the best time of year for it to reach its goal above and beyond where it lies as of now.

It sounds like we can't see a huge hike next month and might keeping at its current price range below $10k. Though I believe that we are prepare for the next halving but can't tell if we all are patient enough to hold our bitcoin up to that moment. Believing that halving has a positive impact to the market, we might able to see the bright side of crypto again.

Yes, might go with a bull.
Not just because of the hype bitcoin is getting from all the analyst about the halving but because of the last time we made a pump.
It is like a glimpse of what will happen before the end year. That is if there will be no manipulation to happen.

We cannot really tell much yet but the stability with 8k to 9k looks to me like a good sign.

The calmer it gets the more I became nervous, and I don't know exactly maybe I feel it will suddenly break then fall. Anyway, up for 2020, halving will come here. We will surely be experiencing price changes particularly an increasement, and I confidently claim it because it never fail us. Might as well be ready right after few months or years after the halving we don't know what market would look like after that.

 I don't think the next phase will be the bull run rather it will take a longer time to come. Everywhere people are talking about the bull run, because of the BTC halving in next year but if you check the past, you would know that after every Bitcoin halving, it took almost 6 months to years to pump the crypto market to hit a new high! I guess we will see a massive pump and Bitcoin price may cross 12K USD, but that will not be bull run if you compare the halving!

I also expect much for the last quarter of this year but I have not really seen much thing that shows that bitcoin will cross over to that value this year again, but it's a volatile market and anything that we predict could happen in no time. Some months back, people predicted bitcoin to go back to $7000, but today we saw it rise to this figure, even though it is not the figure that many of us all anticipated.

I believe that the majority of us by now thinks that bitcoin would have gotten to the previous all-time high and be preparing to take another new all-time high by next year beginning, it is not still too late. Bitcoin is a wonder coin and it community whom consist of bulls and bears are all full of surprises, so I would not really know what the effect of bitcoin will be again now.

Bitcoin can reverse the situation suddenly and we must realize that bitcoin is very volatile where prices can change significantly, and nothing is impossible for bitcoin that after a decline there will definitely be an increase and it all needs the right time.
and most likely there is still a chance to increase again at the end of the year and I am very optimistic That will happen, and holding it is the best choice at the moment and must be patient.

Bitcoin is volatile but I got to go with the spirit of a move, on a day for the week and in the month.   I dont think its especially positive, thats my general take and as a measure we could probably include the Chinese dictator speech and how positive on crypto he is and yet we rose and it went nowhere seemingly.   Thats my take, maybe Im just a cynic and its moments away from a recovery upwards but I think negative until proven otherwise and that blip upwards and retracement seems to confirm that negative element is dominant over the always possible alternative directions BTC wants to take in its volatility.

https://i.imgur.com/xXy9pOB.png


Drift down and not even getting above 2 day average, just hourly bars so it is short term but its yet to find firm ground.   Normally I'd expect the weekend action to be reaching upwards also.

I'm not sure that halving will bring some bigger positive impact. It's good to hppe and dtay positive but don't rely on that. Also, I don't expect Bitcoin to cross 10000$ this year, it's more likely that the price will stay in current range. There is no use in thinking when and how the price will rise sharp, every even small opportunity for profit should be used all the time.

Maybe profit assurance isn't there but seeing how halving influence the market before it eventually giving me hope also to see a sharp rise during that time. The positive effect might not be strong but maybe (at least) we could experience pumps for more than a year of waiting.
We may think that bullish can be possible but I don't want to give a huge expectation for the reason that halving won't warrant big pumps all the way as you and most people said.

Well, that was a bull trap.

I don't know why there was so much resistance at $10k, but for whatever reason, the resistance is certainly and undeniably there. I think that prices should head lower now given that we're likely going to retest support at $8k once again with a lack of bullish momentum.

That's not to say that people should all of a sudden start panicking or whatnot. They should absolutely not. With the halving coming un and the improved fundamentals, there is really nothing to worry about honestly.

I would scared if then before the halving the bitcoin price continue to grow but falls after the halving.

Could this scenario happened? I think so in the short term like ... few months after bitcoin halving the price fall back to $4,000 but slowly recovering in the next year 2021 even skyrocketing to a new all time high doubled from the last all time high of $20,000 , $40,000? That's my number.
Nothing can guarantee that bitcoin price would go up unstoppable right after the halving right?

contrary to your thoughts I only look at the current chart, reminds me of the 2015 charts, where a year before halving in 2016 looks stable, right now we're also in before halving 2020 later, so I let them play with the current prices and do a lot of drama, it's cool if you still want to add a little supply
https://i.imgur.com/62RJbV0.png

bitcoin always has a surprise at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, if you don't see it at the end of this year at least look at the beginning of next year, if you see that surprise, I'm ready to accept merit from anyone  ;D

Mhhhh you might be very correct with the "calm period" before halving. But sorry to disappoint you, not giving anything to the supply circulation back. :P If there would be again a pump in advance of the halving like in 2016. I'd say a pump to $16k and then down to $12k would be reasonable to expect?

history will not always be the same so be calm all in the process before bitcoin halving, I don't know when bitcoin gave another surprise as before since bitcoin traveled from under $ 4k to almost touching $ 14k on a trip in february to last june, so whatever the analysis I really appreciate you and do not force you to believe in me let alone disappoint me, I hope your analysis is right  ;)

pretty simple actually , the last bull run was stopped at around $10 k .

then people start to draw a conclusion that $10k should be a reasonable resistance point , this is a common point of view . everyone will have the same thought about this and guess what will happened if someone find out that this is a glitch.
a glitch that lead to an unexpected move , the predictions that made by everyone else turned wrong , this has been happened in 2018 right?

i don't expect this to happen , but let's anticipate it coming through.

And it seems we got a surprise but it was not what we were expecting, instead of the price going up as people have been speculating for weeks the price has been going down in a dramatic fashion during the last days, and today was especially a surprising day because the price was below 7000 for several hours and then we saw a recovery of the price, I do really hope that the price doesn't go below that but if it does we could be seeing a terrible end of the year for all of those holding bitcoin.

Playing its price on 6k range isnt a terrible year for those who hold some btc into their stashes.As long you dont go for short term then you wouldnt really mind too much on your port.
Its just been common to have these kind of movement as always here on crypto space.There would be dumps then recovery or even a shoot up in price then later on a certain correction happen
then going sideways for long time then suddenly moves either ups and downs.As a supporter you should really be ready and prepared into such situation.

If you are talking about the holders that have been in possession of their coins for years then you are right a price of 6000 is not really a problem for them, but we must recognize that they are an exception, I'm pretty sure that many people that are holding bitcoin today bought it when the price was above 10000 believing that we will see another all time high only to be disappointed once again, so holders like that are in trouble and if they begin to sell because of the panic then the price could crash.

Well it's their problem. People should've learned from 2018 already. It's getting yourself too hyped over btc's movement at a certain point could be very costly in the short run. It seems that the 4th quarter of the year always has a surprise for us. We just don't know if it's a good or a bad one. I don't doubt that 10k can be achieved. We just don't know when and what would cause it. It could be caused by a sudden event or we can gradually get there in time. I'd prefer the latter.

buy when prices under support are good for long-term use, you know the history of bitcoin performance has increased year by year, even though there have been a number of bad years, but bitcoin can still be long-term if you understand, then if you follow HYPE or FOMO do it so that you do not follow it is very risky

When we consider about the market support it is good to buy when the price is much low. This is really possible when the trend is bearish. By the time very few believe it to be a good time to invest while majority get into the panic state and feels of missing the opportunity later. Market always has its risk, it is us who need to act right at the right time.

People like that never really learn because what happens to them is that after they lose their money by investing in bitcoin they decide that they want to get the money that they have lost immediately and they invest in altcoins, and as you may guess instead of recovering the money that they have lost they lose whatever they had left and instead of admitting that they made a mistake it is way easier to blame the market for what happened to them never learning their lesson in this process.

in my opinion bitcion is quite difficult to reach $ 10k by the end of this year. right now we are in December and bitcoin prices remain at $ 7k. but I did not give up hope
bitcoin is very volatile and can go up and down suddenly with large volumes. there is still hope for bitcoin to reach $ 10k by the end of this year. I'm sure bitcoin can pump again. I'll be patient and wait.

There is no chance that the price will reach $10k by the end of the year. December is the month in which investors take their eyes off the charts and take care of the family. I think that by the end of the year the price will not change, and the increases will start in January.

We cannot tell since the price in crypto is sometimes unpredictable. Sometimes you have a perfect analysis but there are some instances that results are beyond expectation. Since we are in the last months of the year I hope that it will slowly recover and hopefully next year we see the momentum.

The year is slowly coming to an end and we are still very close to 7000 so it doesn't seem likely that we are going to reach 10000 by the end of this year, however I agree with you when you say that anything can happen with bitcoin, we cannot really discard that during the last days of the year we see a huge pump that will allow bitcoin to reach those prices, in fact several weeks ago the price of bitcoin moved by 3000 dollars in just 24 hours and we cannot discard that could happen again.

It's shaping up to be a very... interesting week. Big money flying around in the traditional markets -- corporate tax payments, T-bill settlements and so on -- could cause a gotcha or two. Fed says it's going to inject another $500 billion to backstop the whole thing so no immediate worries... maybe.

I bet a lot of the demand in the Bitcoin spot market these days is from individuals with some extra knowledge of what's going down in the traditional banking/financial world. It definitely feels like we're at the Bear Stearns phase of this coming meltdown, like someone is quietly getting bailed out of bankruptcy. The Lehman phase can't be far off.

Pay attention to traditional financial news this week. Could be some golden nuggets if you know how to read between the lines. There will either be a frantic attempt to dump BTC or an unstoppable wave of panic buying from those "in the know."

looks like we're probably headed to $6k (at least) first......


the market doesn't believe that at all. look at the stock markets---they keep making new highs. the SPX and NASDAQ literally both just made a new ATH today. the market is exuberant, which is a very different context than when bear stearns was acquired. at that time, the market had already topped, made a lower high, and sold off.

everybody is chomping at the bit trying to predict the next recession and financial crisis. too soon IMO.

Last month I wrote this in this thread:


Whoops, guess I was very much wrong.  Bitcoin did sink to $66XX after I wrote that (I think), but I kind of figured that it wouldn't happen again--but obviously it's doing that right now, as the price is $6891 at the moment.  That's what I get for making silly predictions about bitcoin, the most unpredictable asset ever known to man.  I'll never understand its machinations.  I will keep my hope up that $10k isn't out of the question for next year, though.

Hopefully not that low, but who knows.  I sure as hell don't.

this year might end on the lowest note , this is  surprising since the last quarter is usually pretty good for bitcoin
there has been predominantly bullish trend in the fourth quarter and ATH of 2017 happened too
I guess not this time ,after re-revisiting 10k several times this year , we seem to be looking to end it in between 6.700-7.500$ range
again , predicting BTC price is pointless ,but this thread is speculation , so I'm speculating :)
if you look at the big picture instead , next year is what going to be a fun year , because of the halving
so it doesn't really matter if we drop to 6k or not , I am almost sure ( as much as you can be with btc , lol ) we will see a substantial price growth come next year and through out the next couple of years , because this is how it behaves historically during the halving ,its a parabolic increase