Aren't we headed towards getting a 10k (or maybe higher) shot again?

[iamsange]

Maybe I'm too optimistic if I would say that Bitcoin will go over $10k which it looks like to be less possible in the stretch.
Having some insights that there is no bull run happen this year and it is too hard to make a huge jump if the market demand won't get stronger. Maybe we could expect a huge hike early next year as halving come near to happen but can't speculate if Bitcoin price will reach for another $20k.

And for now, I don't feel that it drop more below $8k. I'm too positive that it remains to $8k - $10k range.

I think bitcoin won't pump to 20k before the halving or even after the halving. Just like it used to before bitcoin price pump in 2017 while the latest halving was held in 2016. I'm sure it will be the same next year. Bitcoin won't pump hard next year, but the next 2 years i'm sure bitcoin will be people demands and the price would be so high due to the less supply and harder to get

Any possibilities can be happen, for me pump and dump both are almost have equal percentage to happen. Like what i read in this forum when people expect a lot in halving, they must be already bought in cheap price, and human nature, when pumped there must be people who already prepared to dump their coin after get profit. Maybe let's just see which one is bigger, dumper or demands because of halving.

[exstasie]

What i'm most curious of is will we see serious action PRE halving, ON halving or few weeks/months AFTER halving... ??

Wild guess: warm-up rally to re-test the ATH in Q1 2020 (maybe into April), followed by a bearish correction through halving (similar to summer 2016). After that, the real fireworks will start.

People thought the $14K rally was the beginning a 2017-like run. I think it was more like hitting $500 in November 2015. Lots of bullish ranging and accumulation needs to happen before we can see another bubble.

[Wind_FURY]

this suggests some people are pricing it in, that's all.

based on the actual stock-to-flow relationship, the market hasn't priced in the halving at all. https://www.ccn.com/top-german-bank-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-90000-after-halving/

“If the May 2020 stock-to-flow ratio for Bitcoin is factored into the model, a vertiginous price of around USD 90,000 emerges. This would imply that the forthcoming halving effect has hardly been priced into the current Bitcoin price of approximately USD 8,000 (the current model value is roughly USD 7,500).” -Bayern LB report

i remember being bearish in the first half of 2016 and saying things like "the halving is already priced in"......i was totally wrong back then. i don't think any event is ever totally priced in until it happens.

I believe the stock-to-flow ratio "theory" only focuses on supply, but what about the demand?

the stock-to-flow model assumes a constant level of demand. in reality, demand waxes and wanes with bull and bear markets. if $90k is the model's target post-halving, then bubble hype (temporary speculative demand) should take us considerably further.

Or no demand/stagnation, because the halving might have been already priced in?

Stock-to-flow ratio is originally used for commodities, like gold. Gold never mooned. BUT this might be good.

Bitcoin's "Age of Stability".

bitcoin is a commodity like gold, right down to the mining analogy.

i would say gold did moon. it's up like 3600% over the past 50 years. between 2001 and 2011 it went up 650%---nothing to sneeze at.

With Bitcoin's volatility, what price would make it stable? I believe 6 digits. $1,000 moves would be 1% or less.

Plus did gold go through an "Age if Volatility"? Is its price now, by a some extent, in equilibrium?

[piebeyb]

Aren't we headed towards getting a 10k (or maybe higher) shot again?

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises 

[Wexlike]

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises 

Current sentiment, price movement etc reminds me quite a bit same time last year, or more precisely November 2018. Obviously we know what happened soon after, although it seems almost too obvious, that it is going to repeat last year?

In numbers, that would be ~50% retracement from here, so somewhere ~<$5000, followed by halving fueled upward movement through 1H of 2020, slightly >4x growth, which would place us near ATH by June. Although halving events so far has seen significant correction before the actual event, so...?

I suppose i'll just hold (and add slightly perhaps), no idea really what the price does.

[rdbase]

Aren't we headed towards getting a 10k (or maybe higher) shot again?

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises 

This is the price where everyone is hoping it will be at so near to the end of the year and usually with holidays where people are spending on friends and family it is the best time to be optimistic about the price reaching above $10,500.
It also helps with those people wanting to send money overseas across different countries to their families and having the cryptocurrency the least expensive and easiest way to do this also seems like the best time of year for it to reach its goal above and beyond where it lies as of now.

[Hypnosis00]

It sounds like we can't see a huge hike next month and might keeping at its current price range below $10k. Though I believe that we are prepare for the next halving but can't tell if we all are patient enough to hold our bitcoin up to that moment. Believing that halving has a positive impact to the market, we might able to see the bright side of crypto again.

[danherbias07]

Yes, might go with a bull.
Not just because of the hype bitcoin is getting from all the analyst about the halving but because of the last time we made a pump.
It is like a glimpse of what will happen before the end year. That is if there will be no manipulation to happen.

We cannot really tell much yet but the stability with 8k to 9k looks to me like a good sign.

[Obito]

I also think we are in a stabilization phase and the next stage should be bull run, but unfortunately it is not known when it will come. It is possible that it will start this year, or maybe just around halving event in the middle of 2020. The good thing is that the market now looks much calmer and dump or panic sell is very unlikely.

The calmer it gets the more I became nervous, and I don't know exactly maybe I feel it will suddenly break then fall. Anyway, up for 2020, halving will come here. We will surely be experiencing price changes particularly an increasement, and I confidently claim it because it never fail us. Might as well be ready right after few months or years after the halving we don't know what market would look like after that.

[Ferris419]

I also think we are in a stabilization phase and the next stage should be bull run, but unfortunately, it is not known when it will come. It is possible that it will start this year, or maybe just around halving event in the middle of 2020. The good thing is that the market now looks much calmer and dump or panic sell is very unlikely.

 I don't think the next phase will be the bull run rather it will take a longer time to come. Everywhere people are talking about the bull run, because of the BTC halving in next year but if you check the past, you would know that after every Bitcoin halving, it took almost 6 months to years to pump the crypto market to hit a new high! I guess we will see a massive pump and Bitcoin price may cross 12K USD, but that will not be bull run if you compare the halving!

[davinchi]

I also expect much for the last quarter of this year but I have not really seen much thing that shows that bitcoin will cross over to that value this year again, but it's a volatile market and anything that we predict could happen in no time. Some months back, people predicted bitcoin to go back to $7000, but today we saw it rise to this figure, even though it is not the figure that many of us all anticipated.

I believe that the majority of us by now thinks that bitcoin would have gotten to the previous all-time high and be preparing to take another new all-time high by next year beginning, it is not still too late. Bitcoin is a wonder coin and it community whom consist of bulls and bears are all full of surprises, so I would not really know what the effect of bitcoin will be again now.

[bitzizzix]

Bitcoin can reverse the situation suddenly and we must realize that bitcoin is very volatile where prices can change significantly, and nothing is impossible for bitcoin that after a decline there will definitely be an increase and it all needs the right time.
and most likely there is still a chance to increase again at the end of the year and I am very optimistic That will happen, and holding it is the best choice at the moment and must be patient.

[STT]

Bitcoin is volatile but I got to go with the spirit of a move, on a day for the week and in the month.   I dont think its especially positive, thats my general take and as a measure we could probably include the Chinese dictator speech and how positive on crypto he is and yet we rose and it went nowhere seemingly.   Thats my take, maybe Im just a cynic and its moments away from a recovery upwards but I think negative until proven otherwise and that blip upwards and retracement seems to confirm that negative element is dominant over the always possible alternative directions BTC wants to take in its volatility.




Drift down and not even getting above 2 day average, just hourly bars so it is short term but its yet to find firm ground.   Normally I'd expect the weekend action to be reaching upwards also.

[bitbunnny]

It sounds like we can't see a huge hike next month and might keeping at its current price range below $10k. Though I believe that we are prepare for the next halving but can't tell if we all are patient enough to hold our bitcoin up to that moment. Believing that halving has a positive impact to the market, we might able to see the bright side of crypto again.

I'm not sure that halving will bring some bigger positive impact. It's good to hppe and dtay positive but don't rely on that. Also, I don't expect Bitcoin to cross 10000$ this year, it's more likely that the price will stay in current range. There is no use in thinking when and how the price will rise sharp, every even small opportunity for profit should be used all the time.

[Hypnosis00]

It sounds like we can't see a huge hike next month and might keeping at its current price range below $10k. Though I believe that we are prepare for the next halving but can't tell if we all are patient enough to hold our bitcoin up to that moment. Believing that halving has a positive impact to the market, we might able to see the bright side of crypto again.

I'm not sure that halving will bring some bigger positive impact. It's good to hppe and dtay positive but don't rely on that. Also, I don't expect Bitcoin to cross 10000$ this year, it's more likely that the price will stay in current range. There is no use in thinking when and how the price will rise sharp, every even small opportunity for profit should be used all the time.

Maybe profit assurance isn't there but seeing how halving influence the market before it eventually giving me hope also to see a sharp rise during that time. The positive effect might not be strong but maybe (at least) we could experience pumps for more than a year of waiting.
We may think that bullish can be possible but I don't want to give a huge expectation for the reason that halving won't warrant big pumps all the way as you and most people said.

[magneto]

Well, that was a bull trap.

I don't know why there was so much resistance at $10k, but for whatever reason, the resistance is certainly and undeniably there. I think that prices should head lower now given that we're likely going to retest support at $8k once again with a lack of bullish momentum.

That's not to say that people should all of a sudden start panicking or whatnot. They should absolutely not. With the halving coming un and the improved fundamentals, there is really nothing to worry about honestly.

[EdenHazard]

everything on the charts point to a big bull run starting with a soon-ish breakout. and the fundamentals are there too, there is lots of good news regarding bitcoin adoption these days on top of all that which should have started this breakout but for some reason it seems like the same range is being forced to stay even though the range is squeezed more into a compacted one each time it is tested.

I do agree there are a lot of very positive news signals and fundamentals are good as it always have been, but last year when we had our DIP in the sub 4K we also had more positive news signals and though we did continue with decreasing of price, but nonetheless I do think cause of sentiment we had all over this year the price might go up instead of going down.... It might be kept under control for a few months till the halving dates kick in more and more.
What i'm most curious of is will we see serious action PRE halving, ON halving or few weeks/months AFTER halving... ??
Though I do cheer good and positive news cause user count will keep increasing ant thats the most important of the whole BTC story, more and more different people will be owning some % of the total amount of available BTC

I would scared if then before the halving the bitcoin price continue to grow but falls after the halving.

Could this scenario happened? I think so in the short term like ... few months after bitcoin halving the price fall back to $4,000 but slowly recovering in the next year 2021 even skyrocketing to a new all time high doubled from the last all time high of $20,000 , $40,000? That's my number.
Nothing can guarantee that bitcoin price would go up unstoppable right after the halving right?

[piebeyb]

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises 

Current sentiment, price movement etc reminds me quite a bit same time last year, or more precisely November 2018. Obviously we know what happened soon after, although it seems almost too obvious, that it is going to repeat last year?

In numbers, that would be ~50% retracement from here, so somewhere ~<$5000, followed by halving fueled upward movement through 1H of 2020, slightly >4x growth, which would place us near ATH by June. Although halving events so far has seen significant correction before the actual event, so...?

I suppose i'll just hold (and add slightly perhaps), no idea really what the price does.

contrary to your thoughts I only look at the current chart, reminds me of the 2015 charts, where a year before halving in 2016 looks stable, right now we're also in before halving 2020 later, so I let them play with the current prices and do a lot of drama, it's cool if you still want to add a little supply

Aren't we headed towards getting a 10k (or maybe higher) shot again?

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises 

This is the price where everyone is hoping it will be at so near to the end of the year and usually with holidays where people are spending on friends and family it is the best time to be optimistic about the price reaching above $10,500.
It also helps with those people wanting to send money overseas across different countries to their families and having the cryptocurrency the least expensive and easiest way to do this also seems like the best time of year for it to reach its goal above and beyond where it lies as of now.

bitcoin always has a surprise at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, if you don't see it at the end of this year at least look at the beginning of next year, if you see that surprise, I'm ready to accept merit from anyone 

[Wexlike]

*skip*
contrary to your thoughts I only look at the current chart, reminds me of the 2015 charts, where a year before halving in 2016 looks stable, right now we're also in before halving 2020 later, so I let them play with the current prices and do a lot of drama, it's cool if you still want to add a little supply

Aren't we headed towards getting a 10k (or maybe higher) shot again?

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises  

This is the price where everyone is hoping it will be at so near to the end of the year and usually with holidays where people are spending on friends and family it is the best time to be optimistic about the price reaching above $10,500.
It also helps with those people wanting to send money overseas across different countries to their families and having the cryptocurrency the least expensive and easiest way to do this also seems like the best time of year for it to reach its goal above and beyond where it lies as of now.

bitcoin always has a surprise at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, if you don't see it at the end of this year at least look at the beginning of next year, if you see that surprise, I'm ready to accept merit from anyone  

Mhhhh you might be very correct with the "calm period" before halving. But sorry to disappoint you, not giving anything to the supply circulation back. If there would be again a pump in advance of the halving like in 2016. I'd say a pump to $16k and then down to $12k would be reasonable to expect?

[piebeyb]

*skip*
contrary to your thoughts I only look at the current chart, reminds me of the 2015 charts, where a year before halving in 2016 looks stable, right now we're also in before halving 2020 later, so I let them play with the current prices and do a lot of drama, it's cool if you still want to add a little supply

Aren't we headed towards getting a 10k (or maybe higher) shot again?

we are all not heading but waiting in front of our monitor staring at the charts, I know the price of bitcoin will not play below $ 6k anymore because there is full of buying support, so we are all currently just waiting, predicting, hoping, the price of bitcoin will continue to be stable like this if it continues to play in 7500 - 9500 until early 2020

everyone's hope right now is when the price of bitcoin is able to go above $ 10,500 at the end of this December, it will probably continue to rise higher, oh yes not every year the price of bitcoin rises  

This is the price where everyone is hoping it will be at so near to the end of the year and usually with holidays where people are spending on friends and family it is the best time to be optimistic about the price reaching above $10,500.
It also helps with those people wanting to send money overseas across different countries to their families and having the cryptocurrency the least expensive and easiest way to do this also seems like the best time of year for it to reach its goal above and beyond where it lies as of now.

bitcoin always has a surprise at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, if you don't see it at the end of this year at least look at the beginning of next year, if you see that surprise, I'm ready to accept merit from anyone  

Mhhhh you might be very correct with the "calm period" before halving. But sorry to disappoint you, not giving anything to the supply circulation back. If there would be again a pump in advance of the halving like in 2016. I'd say a pump to $16k and then down to $12k would be reasonable to expect?

history will not always be the same so be calm all in the process before bitcoin halving, I don't know when bitcoin gave another surprise as before since bitcoin traveled from under $ 4k to almost touching $ 14k on a trip in february to last june, so whatever the analysis I really appreciate you and do not force you to believe in me let alone disappoint me, I hope your analysis is right