Bitcoin Forum

I reckon the more qualified people in the forum like Carlton should share their arguments on this. Do you agree or disagree?

In any case, Meltem is pretty hehehe.

https://d1p9wirkq0k00v.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/15051457/meltem1.jpg

Meltem Demirors, the chief strategy officer at the digital asset manager CoinShares, is the latest to tackle the notion that Bitcoin will behave as it has in the past and rise dramatically after its next halving, which is set to happen in May of 2020.

She says the emergence of Bitcoin and crypto derivatives could change the trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency and make the impact of this next halving significantly different.

“There is a very real possibility the price of Bitcoin does not go up after halving. For the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for Bitcoin. Most firms looking to speculate on Bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying.

A topic that’s been studied in other commodities markets is how pricing is set. Bitcoin is, arguably, a digital commodity. Normally, producers set the price of a commodity (classic S = D = P from Econ 101) when derivatives take off, producers lose the right to set prices…

The more Bitcoin becomes an investable asset, the more its price becomes decoupled from its value and its supply and demand. It becomes yet another backwater in the great game of global speculation. It becomes ‘financialized.’ It becomes correlated to macro markets.

Today, the Bitcoin derivatives market is still small. But the market will grow quickly. will be interesting to watch. Derivatives on Bitcoin are an oxymoron. But they’re the fastest growing part of the market.”

Bloomberg Markets editor Joe Weisenthal is also skeptical of stock-to-flow predictions. In a recent newsletter, he argues that Bitcoin’s fixed supply is well-known and already priced in.

Read in full https://dailyhodl.com/2019/12/25/can-bitcoin-btc-really-hit-1-million-meltem-demirors-warns-btc-halving-may-have-zero-impact/

This is what I have been thinking of the recent days since I have seen a lot of posts regarding the Halving and the creation of multiple countdown timers to it (there’s no exact date yet IIRC). To my thinking, is the effect of having less BTC would significantly impact the circulation, OF COURSE. But people would be willing to buy more of it just because of that? IDTS. The people still dictate the price of the asset, and if people are eager to buy more, then I would love that, but directly impacting the price is somewhat subjective.

It's not only the case that the halving might have zero impact, it's also the case that the halving actually might have a negative impact on price.

Think about it this way. The price of bitcoin for the halving might already be priced in. Meaning, people might have already bought bitcoin in an anticipation of a price pump sometime around the halving. And what if the price didn't pump? It's safe to assume that a good number of people might be frustrated due to there being no price pump hence probably dumping the bitcoin they bought.

In the end, we're just speculating though. Time will tell. It's just better to have healthy and reasonable expectations rather than just automatically concluding that bitcoin will pump in price due to the supply distribution cut.

And it's so good you shared an enormous image of her.   >:(

Aaanyway, I don't know what to expect from the upcoming halvening and it doesn't seem like there even should be any reaction from the market to something as predictable as that--but judging from the ones I've seen in the past they do appear to have an effect in a positive way.  Who knows, but I'll be watching the market and bitcoin's price in particular in the next few months.

But bitcoin's a long ass way from hitting $1 million and it'll be lucky if it even gets close to $10k next year IMO.  In fact if it does hit that mark, I'll be more than satisfied.  A million dollars can wait a few years.

Bitcoin halving may have zero impact is possible if we judge how the market is moving these days. I have had a wild guess that the price stabilizing at around $7,000 was caused by the investors who's trying to accumulate more Bitcoin, and that's the reason why Bitcoin is holding on to that range, without them the price should've gone below $5,000 level?
Another thing is, I've look through the past 2 halvings. It seems that the price is gradually increasing from a 6 months period before the halving, but this time is different because Bitcoin is struggling to escape the 4 digit price.

Ps. Indeed she is gorgeous, I was staring at her photo for about a minute before posting lol :D

Well, doesn't it impacting the amount of BTC circulating already shows that it has an effect? Like it's making the coin, rarer and rarer every halving because it limits its production already. Like how 1990's music cd's are considered unique because they aren't in production anymore, so anyone looking to buy it would pay a higher price for it.

Plus, considering my example, only a few people would want a 1990's cd. But, crypto is aimed for the entire world, no matter the country. There are 7.6 billion of earth as of 2018, and there are only 21 million BTC available to be mined.

I'm not saying it would 100% increase, but it's a possibility because of this. As long as people continue to accept BTC, the scenario I presented has a high chance of happening.

I can still remember the last halving when it was starting to read and learn through this forum and starting to trade little by little. I know just three to four people who know or have heard of bitcoin. It's a whole lot different then and i think that means we shouldn't be expecting the same effect that next year's halving will have on btc.

the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.

let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens. ;)

In my opinion halving has no significant economic impact on bitcoin price rather than hype. Halving will only decrease payout for miners from 12,5BTC to 6.25BTC. That will change annual inflation from 3,6% to 1,8%. It means that your bitcoins are dropping in value 3.6% annually due to inflation and now they will drop in value 1.8% annually. Both numbers are negligible in relation to high volatility of bitcoin price. Definitely it is not a reason for 1000% pump.
People do believe that halving will pump bitcoin price because that happened every time ... yea but bitcoin chart is one enormous pump.


short squeeze :)

I can agree with her about the topic of "not going up after halving" because there has been a lot of speculations about halving so much that people have waited for it like crazy and eventually the price is already taken into consideration that we will be going for a halving.

I mean we all know halving, we all know when that is, we all take that into calculation when we buy or sell bitcoin anyway, so why would it change just on the nose when halving starts? That is why I think she is right that bitcoin "may" not move at all. However one thing I disagree with that the underlying is still used like hell, there hundreds of millions of dollars changing hands every single day in bitcoin world, sure the derivatives are getting more and more popularity but that is not taking too much out of underlying neither.

Haha, I fully agree with you. All the same stories came up in 2016 for the last halving and got smashed hard in their balls. I equally enjoy the bearish tone and uncertainity. Lots of potential for growth for the true believers.

I am already certain that the next halving will have a year gap before the bullish market starts to set in and start to increase prices gradually. If the sentiments continue to be like bullish then it's more likely the market will go bearish i don't know why it's like that but it's like ignoring to what's the people are expecting.

The one thing she's missing is that Bitcoin is an end product in itself and one with purpose for real people in day to day life. I can't buy my monthly octopus porn fix or flee Syria with my wealth intact with an option.

Almost all other commodities are an inaccessible abstraction at the time their derivatives trade - soybean oil, copper, palm oil, orange juice, rapeseed. You have these back end markets and then it winds up in your phone or emerging from your urethra. There's nothing in between. Of course their values are decided by end user demand and usage but they'd be much weirder markets if normaltons started meddling directly in them for their own needs.

Most Wall St types seem to have a vast blind spot about this.
 

This is what I am afraid of. I had a great hope when the ETH hard fork hype was live, everyone in crypto was very excited to see a very high price for Ethereum, but that upgrade did not help at all, Ethereum lost its track and it seems price may collapse again like 2018. So, no one knows Bitcoin halving will bring positive growth in Bitcoin price, the previous halving worked well, but this time I feel afraid and confuse that this halving may not be helpful enough, however, let's see and stay positive.

i think bitcoin can reach those high level 500k usd and even 1 million usd next years ; because everything is possible ;  who think in the past halving that prices can jump above 10000 usd per btc. the dream now is real and  prices jump from low level to high level

There's a yes and there's a no. It just remains a possibility until we see it for ourselves. Just judging from the fact that every halving brought about an ATH for BTC proves that it could. As for it having zero impact, yes it could happen, but without any prior examples in the past, humans would believe it to be close to impossible. Plus, bearish seasons are normal when the halving occurs, and only after a half a year or so would the bullish runs occur, which shows that normally, the market readjusts itself to the current supply and demand in the halving itself.

There is a huge difference between previous halving and the one which will take place next year as bitcoin was still alien thing for most of the people before the last Bull run so we didn't have as many whales investing into bitcoin like we have now and there were no price manipulation that time due to lack of whales and corporate investments but now market is filled with whales and corporates who manipulates the price for their benefits. I would be happy even if bitcoin hits $10k post halving.

Zero impact or Huge impact.These are only 2 things would happen on that halving event but i dont really mind or care too much on what would happen yet price movement

will always vary on the demand on that certain time.I wont be surprised if FOMO buyers will accumulate before halving event because we cant really remove on ones mind to have
those hopes and expectations that there would be might an another bull run.

$1M?Is this a McAfee thread? Just joking. hehe

The last bullrun was that there was no BAKKT yet and other platforms offering the same which makes BTC price go up due to the less supply coming into the market. This time these platforms can fake the supply in their platform, there by they can create on their own without bothering to actually have something in the blockchain to list.  But we'll find out after the halving because we are yet to know all these.

i also don't think she's accounting for bitcoin's extreme scarcity. there is all this expectation of massive derivative market liquidity, but this fundamentally requires borrowed bitcoins to underlie the derivative markets.

and bitcoins are incredibly difficult to borrow because of their extreme scarcity. :)

that leads me to wonder whether physically settled derivative markets (like bakkt) will actually have enough volume and liquidity to dominate spot market pricing, like we see in the gold market and other commodity markets. and cash settled markets don't matter at all---they are essentially CFD traders making side bets about the spot market.

There are much less flattering photos of her online ;)
Don't you guys have women where you're from?

I think that it will have an impact just not when everybody is expecting it. Previous halvings created pumps at or after the event. There's no rule that the price will increase a month after or 2 months before. It can happen 6 months later when people have already given up on the idea.

What is womens?



I've read somewhere that either a total of 16 BTC have left Bakkt or you can't withdraw it at all. Anything could be going in there and I wonder if the people using it care about that.

There have been many hard forks that Ethereum went through, which one exactly are you referring to?  :D

In short, it's great to get more features and code improvements forked in, but when the demand for the actual asset isn't increasing but decreasing, there isn't much that you can hope for. The most you can hope for is a buy the rumor sell the news type of event where people dump just before or just after the fork.

I seriously wonder how much of Ether's current price is held up by those having confidence in the POS transition. If this is in fact a driving factor for demand, which it very well could be (who doesn't like trustless interest and getting paid out in the native asset?), and the price is still tanking, the price would have been well under $100 if there wasn't that POS demand.

They probably don't. No more than they do in other ICE, COMEX, etc. markets.

Do you think the lack of withdrawals indicates traders are accumulating BTC but not withdrawing it from Bakkt's custody? Or is it because contracts are being rolled forward or not physically settled, indicating there is very little BTC accumulation happening?

I assume based on this (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bakkt-warehouse-launches-deposits-and-withdrawals-as-planned) that Bakkt traders can withdraw BTC if they want to.

However, what would be your argument for her prediction that investors', assuming she is talking about the institutional investors, preference towards bitcoin derivatived instead of bitcoin?

Her argument is that no pump will occur because all money will be in cryptoderivatives.

we don't need institutional investors for price to rise, especially considering how illiquid the market is. bitcoin's extremely limited supply and retail investor demand alone can spark another parabolic bubble IMO.

also, physically backed and delivered derivatives have BTC underlying them, so if institutions are bullish on BTC, strong demand in these derivatives markets (like bakkt) will drive spot prices upwards.

Every day I can hear hundreds of predictions about the price of bitcoin, many people say the price will rise but many people say the price will go down. The halving may have an impact on the price of bitcoin but in my opinion it will have a small impact. Perhaps the price of bitcoin will go up a bit, but the fact that bitcoin can reach $ 1 million is a far cry.
People should do their own research before investing, they should not believe in any predictions.
Meltem is very beautiful.

In recent days I've heard dozens of speculations about a halving that will drive bitcoin's price up. People seem to be putting a lot of hope into halving, which in theory is quite possible.
However, I still believe that the price of bitcoin depends on sharks and investors more than on the supply. Clearly all past price increases have had the hands of sharks manipulating the market. I think the price of bitcoin increased primarily because of sharks, not because bitcoin halved.

yes I also think maybe next year's halving day will be different from the previous halving day. and in my opinion there is a possibility that bitcoin won't pump after being reduced by half. because the current condition of the crypto market is very different from the condition of the crypto market in the previous year. so we shouldn't expect too much about halving day bitcoin.

However, bitcoin market is more regulated today than before. It might be harder for the pumpers to pump it similar to the Mtgox bot pump and the Bitfinex Tether printing pump hehehe.

Yes I agree that the halving will be a launching point for another big bull market run, but it will take at least a year for an increase that will turn exponential.

I expect another big exponential increase that will match the ones from 2013 and 2017.