Can Bitcoin Really Hit $1 Million? Demirors Warns Halving May Have Zero Impact

[pixie85]

Ps. Indeed she is gorgeous, I was staring at her photo for about a minute before posting lol

There are much less flattering photos of her online
Don't you guys have women where you're from?

I think that it will have an impact just not when everybody is expecting it. Previous halvings created pumps at or after the event. There's no rule that the price will increase a month after or 2 months before. It can happen 6 months later when people have already given up on the idea.

[gentlemand]

Don't you guys have women where you're from?

What is womens?

and bitcoins are incredibly difficult to borrow because of their extreme scarcity.

that leads me to wonder whether physically settled derivative markets (like bakkt) will actually have enough volume and liquidity to dominate spot market pricing, like we see in the gold market and other commodity markets. and cash settled markets don't matter at all---they are essentially CFD traders making side bets about the spot market.

I've read somewhere that either a total of 16 BTC have left Bakkt or you can't withdraw it at all. Anything could be going in there and I wonder if the people using it care about that.

[1Referee]

This is what I am afraid of. I had a great hope when the ETH hard fork hype was live, everyone in crypto was very excited to see a very high price for Ethereum, but that upgrade did not help at all, Ethereum lost its track and it seems price may collapse again like 2018.

There have been many hard forks that Ethereum went through, which one exactly are you referring to?  

In short, it's great to get more features and code improvements forked in, but when the demand for the actual asset isn't increasing but decreasing, there isn't much that you can hope for. The most you can hope for is a buy the rumor sell the news type of event where people dump just before or just after the fork.

I seriously wonder how much of Ether's current price is held up by those having confidence in the POS transition. If this is in fact a driving factor for demand, which it very well could be (who doesn't like trustless interest and getting paid out in the native asset?), and the price is still tanking, the price would have been well under $100 if there wasn't that POS demand.

[exstasie]

I've read somewhere that either a total of 16 BTC have left Bakkt or you can't withdraw it at all. Anything could be going in there and I wonder if the people using it care about that.

They probably don't. No more than they do in other ICE, COMEX, etc. markets.

Do you think the lack of withdrawals indicates traders are accumulating BTC but not withdrawing it from Bakkt's custody? Or is it because contracts are being rolled forward or not physically settled, indicating there is very little BTC accumulation happening?

I assume based on this that Bakkt traders can withdraw BTC if they want to.

[bbc.reporter]

“There is a very real possibility the price of Bitcoin does not go up after halving. For the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for Bitcoin. Most firms looking to speculate on Bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying.

A topic that’s been studied in other commodities markets is how pricing is set. Bitcoin is, arguably, a digital commodity. Normally, producers set the price of a commodity (classic S = D = P from Econ 101) when derivatives take off, producers lose the right to set prices…

Bloomberg Markets editor Joe Weisenthal is also skeptical of stock-to-flow predictions. In a recent newsletter, he argues that Bitcoin’s fixed supply is well-known and already priced in.

the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.

let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.

However, what would be your argument for her prediction that investors', assuming she is talking about the institutional investors, preference towards bitcoin derivatived instead of bitcoin?

Her argument is that no pump will occur because all money will be in cryptoderivatives.

[figmentofmyass]

the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.

let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.

However, what would be your argument for her prediction that investors', assuming she is talking about the institutional investors, preference towards bitcoin derivatived instead of bitcoin?

Her argument is that no pump will occur because all money will be in cryptoderivatives.

we don't need institutional investors for price to rise, especially considering how illiquid the market is. bitcoin's extremely limited supply and retail investor demand alone can spark another parabolic bubble IMO.

also, physically backed and delivered derivatives have BTC underlying them, so if institutions are bullish on BTC, strong demand in these derivatives markets (like bakkt) will drive spot prices upwards.

[acdc]

Every day I can hear hundreds of predictions about the price of bitcoin, many people say the price will rise but many people say the price will go down. The halving may have an impact on the price of bitcoin but in my opinion it will have a small impact. Perhaps the price of bitcoin will go up a bit, but the fact that bitcoin can reach $ 1 million is a far cry.
People should do their own research before investing, they should not believe in any predictions.
Meltem is very beautiful.

[xZork]

In recent days I've heard dozens of speculations about a halving that will drive bitcoin's price up. People seem to be putting a lot of hope into halving, which in theory is quite possible.
However, I still believe that the price of bitcoin depends on sharks and investors more than on the supply. Clearly all past price increases have had the hands of sharks manipulating the market. I think the price of bitcoin increased primarily because of sharks, not because bitcoin halved.

[karanggatak]

yes I also think maybe next year's halving day will be different from the previous halving day. and in my opinion there is a possibility that bitcoin won't pump after being reduced by half. because the current condition of the crypto market is very different from the condition of the crypto market in the previous year. so we shouldn't expect too much about halving day bitcoin.

[bbc.reporter]

the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.

let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.

However, what would be your argument for her prediction that investors', assuming she is talking about the institutional investors, preference towards bitcoin derivatived instead of bitcoin?

Her argument is that no pump will occur because all money will be in cryptoderivatives.

we don't need institutional investors for price to rise, especially considering how illiquid the market is. bitcoin's extremely limited supply and retail investor demand alone can spark another parabolic bubble IMO.

also, physically backed and delivered derivatives have BTC underlying them, so if institutions are bullish on BTC, strong demand in these derivatives markets (like bakkt) will drive spot prices upwards.

However, bitcoin market is more regulated today than before. It might be harder for the pumpers to pump it similar to the Mtgox bot pump and the Bitfinex Tether printing pump hehehe.

[moviebuff777]

Yes I agree that the halving will be a launching point for another big bull market run, but it will take at least a year for an increase that will turn exponential.

I expect another big exponential increase that will match the ones from 2013 and 2017.