Bitcoin Forum

Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply

a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?

take the poll (I've not a clue!) :)

Brad

Reserved.

There is correlation in the last week for Stocks, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin however what if the correlation is only temporarily because BTC had a double bottom at $6400 and was eventually suppose to bounce either way.

I think to prove that the correlation is true is for BTC to close above $10300 high which was made in Oct 2019 which would make a higher high and hopefully we would be back in a bull trend again. This might spark a rally to break the $13800 and hopefully go for the $20000 all time high once again.

However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.

I'm watching on this movement too in forex and it's surprise that Oil and Gold rally has same effect on BTC. I believe this is not just a coincidence.
BTC chart looks very bearish in the last few weeks and miraculously revive right after Gold and Oil price rally. There is something behind this silly move and
I'm still expecting a huge spike on the price once this bullish movement become exhausted.

i'd say that the two events are completely irrelevant and if some bitcoin news sites never mentioned it, nobody would have even though about connecting the dots.
the reason is that this rise that has started after the 2020 new year was expected to happen long before 2020 and long before this new drama in Middle East so connecting something that was supposed to happen anyways to something else doesn't make sense to me at all.
besides i don't believe that the rest of the world trusts bitcoin that much as a safe investment yet to act on buying it  at times of crisis. if they did price would have been above $1 million already.

I voted for "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious".

To be honest, we would think that BTC could suddenly rises like this? As of the moment I'm sure majority is still at lost as what really happen. But I'm sure there could be some explanation here, specially when everything settles down.

i have voted for NO CLUE because it seems that there is something wrong about the Pump,usually Prices goes up after the Halving and Not before right?and added that there is a big issue regarding this coming war from Middle east(Iran that may attract other Muslim countries to join them)against super power country USA.

as far as i see matter is not relative because we are talking about economy here and war is against economic growth so why all of a sudden Value of crypto is growing higher since the issue started?

well i will stay reading some good answers here to enlighten my questions.thanks for bringing this up OP.

First off, let's not automatically conclude that the pump in price was due to the Iran/US fiasco. With that said, I don't think Trump's "Iran War talk" simply fades. It's not just a "talk" now, as far as I know a war is pretty much confirmed(correct me if I'm wrong). I know friends in the US that are now going to be deployed in Iran, with saying their hopefully not last goodbyes to their respective families.

With that said, let's not hope for the worst just for BTC's price to rise. Don't be that kind of person.

wrong and wrong.
this is not a pump and price has always gone up before the halving, dropped right before halving (meaning a week or so to halving), stayed down a while through halving and then rose again in about a month.

first halving 2012-11-28:
accumulation ends and price rise starts from about May from ~$4 and reaches $16.41 (310% rise)
has its first correction for about two weeks
then starts rising back up from $7.1 in August (4 months before halving) and goes to ~$14 (97% rise) until the week of halving
in the final week price stops and drops down to $12.75 (~9% drop)
stays down for a month then the bubble cycle begins and price reaches the third big bitcoin bubble in about a year at $259


second halving 2016-07-09:
the start is a bit different this time but the halving rise is identical.
accumulation is longer and happens in previous year so i skip that and the correction.
the rising back up starts about 5 months before halving from a dip in $360 and price rises back up to $778 (116% rise) until 2.5 weeks before halving.
there is a big drop, lots of FUD and a lot of panic sell that ends up taking about a month of dropping starting pre-halving and continues for 2 weeks after it.
accumulation starts and by September price is heading upwards and by the end of 2016 reaches the previous ATH at $1100

I have no doubt that bitcoin is mysterious, but in my opinion when talking about a war, people get nervous and start buying more things than they need, I think that in some way there is greater demand and therefore all goods begin to take more value, war can cause that psychological effect on the buyer. especially the holders.

I can agree with you in some way, though i don't think bitcoin is part of that demand. Especially for those people who are directly affected. With it's status today, it's not going to be easy for people owning btc to buy necessities. Bitcoin would thrive more if we're in an advanced society that's focused on moving forward rather than a war inflicted world.

I think the corporate investment in large mining farms in the US is more significant. It's something that I predicted, and I believe that it is the start of a new phase in Bitcoin, as major investors and bankers look at ways to acquire Bitcoin,and manage their own transactions.

I don't think that can affect the movement of bitcoin. If it affects commodities and the stock market, of course I will believe because it is their influence there.
But for bitcoin I think is not their ecosystem, bitcoin can suddenly rise and fall mysteriously without being affected by the economic news that is happening right now.

I think my opinion does not matter and as the late great Doris Day use to sing


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

"que sera sera"

to all of us lets hope  the crazies on both sides  STFU  and listen to the song on youtube.





As for BTC  to the motherfucking moon baby  we don't need no stinking war.




With my youtube I voted on choice 3 I have no clue as to the why of price

Halving it is for me Brad.  ;D

The news is fading already, that just means something right?
News not much creating hypes about Trump's discussions.
Are they anti-Trump or it is not that just big of a news for them? Dude is trying to be the fearsome leader.
Cannot see it in his face though.  :D

Not got a clue meself, but hey, since when has that ever stopped anyone from ever having an opinion, right?

Me, I don't see a single correlation here. If anything, US going to war with one of the world's oldest civilisations (and a nuclear power, at that), is got to be bad for global stability, bad for global economy, and as I've constantly said before, this can't be good for Bitcoin.

People keep saying falling economies and falling dollar etc means bigger Bitcoin but when people are hungry, desperate and without jobs, they don't buy bitcoin. They buy food.

US dollar rising, bitcoin rising too, btw. Doesn't make sense if we use those theories so there.

I was also watching price of oil and gold and stock index but in btc I think its a coincidence , generally in situations like this gold and oil will raise but btc I doubt , when trade war and other situations btc prices didn't effect

investor move there money from stock markets to stable currency , gold , but btc is also unpredictable so I don't think that raise in btc price is coincidence

While I do agree with your analysisy (how couldn't I agree with facts?) I think this time is going to be different.
I think now people/investors/hodlers are well more aware of halving mechanism, greatly thanks to PlanB articles (I started a thread about those article a while a go: Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.msg52690215#msg52690215) ). It is true that halvings are not still entirely priced in, this is a model and not certainity, after all, but more awareness of the impact of halving on the price dynamics could lead to an improved price outlook coming into halving, and a limited downside in the aftermath.


Regarding the correlated move in oli/gold and bitcoin, I think we are referring to this graph:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob559414ed9784e1e8.png

https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1214695361320669185

provided the timeframe is too narrow to state there is a significant correlation, a reason might be a note released by Golman Sachs:
Geopolitical news made investors going to buy safe investments.
Today Goldman Sachs told his client that: "Gold is a better Geopolitical hedge than Oil" and "Gold is the geopolitical hedge of last resort"



So Gold is rising more than oil.
Digital Gold is raising more than physical gold.


Actually a few hours later:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENlOgapXUAEpKzc?format=jpg&name=medium
https://twitter.com/JanGold_/status/1214089342626541573?s=20


Also on Bloomberg:

Gold Nears Six-Year High as Mideast Tensions Spur Haven Demand (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-03/gold-climbs-as-middle-east-tensions-rise-after-u-s-airstrike)

This will definitely be fading days from now though I am hoping to be wrong. I am then hoping that the influence of the conflict can carry Bitcoin into the halving phase -- the time when we can feel the effect of the halving to the price movement of Bitcoin. The USA-Iran conflict influence will not be lasting for weeks as there is a bigger chance that there will not be a wider conflict in between the two countries. I actually find it pity that we need to have a development like this to push Bitcoin a little bit. I am not then wondering why some people think that there is a need for more bad news so we can see more good news in Bitcoin.

I've voted "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious.". In my opinion, it's already taking too long for BTC to hit its new ATH. Iran War or not, it would go up these days anyway, but we never actually know the reasons for yet another rising. Of course it's easy to talk about the reasons post factum, but before we are there, I mean, at the new ATH, no one can say when it should happen and why.

I choose not to know, BTC is mysterious.

because in my opinion the recent rise in bitcoin prices is not due to geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, maybe this is just a coincidence, but rather is caused by certain factors that are directly related to bitcoin.

This whole situation between USA-Iran-Iraq can have an impact on the world markets, but not as much as the media overdo it for the sake of creating sensationalist headlines. They are pumping war story because this is hot news which makes them a good profit.

The facts on the ground are actually a lot different when it comes to the military option, which means that the US does not have enough human resources in the Middle East to invade Iran, and in the same time Iran can reach almost all USA bases in Middle East with its long-range missiles. For that reason USA is sending six B-52 bombers to US military base Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean island) which is beyond the reach of the Iranian missile system.

I think Iran will not provoke a real open war in which they have no realistic chance, but retaliation for the killed general will come in the form of some minor attacks on US targets or their allies.

Counting dead US troops in an election year would be one of the biggest nonsense Trump has done, and I think this whole situation is just a show of power that says "We are USA, we are the strongest and we can do anything we want"

I voted Yes, it's a store of value.

The bitcoin price jumped at the same time the price of gold jumped.

Suppose you are a fairly wealthy person in the Middle East and are worried you might be caught up in a war between Iran and Saudi (like Syria has, using proxies). And that you might have to leave. Do you leave your money in a local currency? Do you buy gold? Or do you buy bitcoin which you can take with you, with your wallet on a USB stick as you cross borders? Some people are trying all options, just in case.

Since the war is just starting I guess? It's already showing that the price increases but I don't think that this pump will continue when the war between the two country grew bigger. Yes, it acts as a store value but with war, will it even matter for the people affected? Just like in your poll, Bitcoin is a mystery that's why we can never know. It might look like it'll pump but since bitcoin is a mystery, it can result differently. We're not even really sure that the pump is because of the war.

I have no idea why gold made a rally at this moment but for sure Oil is expected to rise and so its price since Iran is one of the main sources of Oil and now they are in a revenge state against U.S.

Regarding the price movement of Bitcoin, I have also no idea and I see no correlation between what is happening right now between the 2 countries and the price of it. I'm always leaning on the technical side than the fundamental side and there are some indicators that are indicating that we are now in a bull run. I just said it is a bull run but still I'm ready if the worse situation can happen to Bitcoin again since many said it already and it is also my vote "Bitcoin is Mysterious". :D

This could be the starting point where investors and hodlers will continue to hodl their BTC purchased just recently, because the tension and problem in Iran and US might fade, it doesn't mean that people would readily sell their cryptocurrency, it is in fact a thoughts for every each of us to make the bitcoin halving a reason to continue holding our bitcoins. But I am pretty sure the BTC pump will continue untill bitcoin halving occurs.

I also voted for "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious" because I don't think the conflict between Iran and the USA will not have that much effect on bitcoin's price because bitcoin is way mysterious and the price changes with no common indicator. Bitcoin price can be affected by many things and the crisis between Iran and the USA may have an effect but I don't think it will have a massive effect on the price.

I think that's the most likely reason, but who's to say?  There's no reason why bitcoin's price should go up right now because of the upcoming halving, and it's never really clear how bitcoin reacts to world events like wars and such. 

Bitcoin was above $8k just a few months ago, so it's not like this is a huge deal right now.  Yes, it's up relative to where it's been since November but it's still a hell of a long ways away from its ATH.  I also happen to think that this Trump-Iran thing might have had an effect, but I'm not completely sure about it and it also looks like the situation might be de-escalating somewhat. 

I think it's going to be an interesting year for bitcoin, I'll say that.

If the fury of him fades and the bitcoin price stays then that is a negative for those analysts who is connecting the crypto market to the world news.  ;D
That means they are a failure and we should stop listening to them.
But if they are right and bitcoin falls back then, we should still not listen to them. It will become a bad habit and we might risk our money just because they told us this and that.
Also, they will be so proud of themselves then create unreal news next time.  ;D

Events in the crypto world should be the thing being listened too to make the price move.
The halving, the FOMO's, the scared cats. That is all the reason into it.  ;D

Exactly. Everyone always makes these rash assumptions about news causing every price move. Usually it's coincidental, or at most catalyzes moves that were already going to happen. The truth is, the technicals were already indicating a rally to the mid-$8,000s. I was talking about that days before any of this Iran news dropped.

Once President Donald Trump press release " standing down" of the imminent retaliation of Iran missiles attack on some targeted US bases in Iraq without any casualties aftermath of that statement resulted to dump in the price of bitcoin from $8400+ to the present price mark of $7900+ I hope this is just a temporal pullback or correction. I believed while the whole crisis subsides the price might rally upward again.

And Now, The trend is already reversing right after Trump announce a peaceful way to solve this conflict. Some whale might try to manipulate the Bitcoin price
using the tension in the middle east. I believe he want's to use the hype on Oil to BTC price. I already analyze both graphs and It's showing that the price movement
of them is relevant to each other. I'm not really sure about this theory.

I think the rise in bitcoin yesterday has nothing to do with the Iran vs America conflict. I think this is just a coincidence when the value of bitcoin has increased iran and America conflicted. after a few days yesterday bitcoin has increased, today bitcoin has decreased again. from this I conclude that the increase that occurred yesterday was the increase that usually occurs in bitcoin.

The things have started to settle a bit after the polite and much awaited trump statement talking about the peace and this viable a positive signal in  the world and today due to which many share market alto gave a thumbs up and moved up and btc which rose in last couple of days have started to balance out now .

I choose "No. Rises only in a Crisis!" because the scenario is currently changes and trump will not declare war against iran, then I think people in iran will withdraw what they put in bitcoin because the crises will not going to happen. maybe in many days it will start to dump again and going back to the previous price.

I could say so? But it could just be FOMO tbh. Tensions were high in the past few days which caused the surge to $8.3k, but with the tension kind of going out or at the very last breath? And with no recent updates as to the possibility of Iran still continuing its attacks, the price has went down and FOMO for it were extinguished. Still, the pump should happen sooner or later with FOMO of the halving in May 2020, which could probably seen by mid February.
It wasn't only BTC that increased in price these few days though, Gold Oil as well as Google (as for other stocks, Idrk much), especially google reaching towards record highs just recently.

Moving the money out of iran/Iraq using bitcoin easier than any other methods , that's what I'm suspecting...

It has driven the bitcoin price up for around $1,000 within a couple days although there's a little bit correction now I stil think the price would continue to grow piece by piece.
I can imagine to those who concern about their money getting disrupted and wants to secure their money through bitcoin.

A general statement, not particulary related to your specific assessment or Bitcoin situation.
I read a nice column recently, which said:


So yes, financial makets is ful of "never in doubt" persons, who in the end are "ofter wrong".
When I report those graphs, correlation or analysis I usually do for discussion purpouses and to feed thoughts, for sure I think they are worth reading and convey some useful insight, but certainly not because I do think those are the truth.
So I share your frustation, even if I am accostumed to that, and I tend to forgive the logical U-turn rality chack impose on those who spelt the truth.

Iran USA tension was the main reason that gave bitcoin a much needed pump. As chances of war are getting less, price of bitcoin is also coming back. In this iran usa tension we altogether forget the coin halving coming later this year.

I'm surprised on the results it seems, thr war has nothing to do with Bitcoin price, that is the general consensus of the majority here and I thought the Iran issue is one of the main reason why their is a pump, so majority here think it's not, and they attributed it to something unknown until, that leaves everybody guessing.

If we are lucky, the Iran situation was JUST enough to shake people up and look at BTC as Plan B again, it is not like the Trump Administration is going to get any saner in the long term.

Then if they further thought about the Halving coming up...perhaps it was just a 'push' of an upturn? (a guy can hope) :) I need it to have a base price of $11,111.12 (for obvious reasons) as

the FLOOR on the future and forever price never to go below. Then I will 'officially' shut the hell up and never worry about price again. (It is my safe zone don't ya know..like a price pacifier

or blankie for me!) :)

Anyway, my Edward Jones financial advisor says the stock market is gonna dump big time, likely this year. We will see. Bitcoin is plan B in my book, for such.

Brad

No way. I believe this move was purely technical. So was gold's increase. Already spelled out in the charts. The crude oil market reacted to the situation because of fear around future supply in the region.

The only people who view BTC as "Plan B" at this point are crazy Bitcoiners like us. ;)

I can tell you that even in Iran price of bitcoin has started to drop down a bit, and I am not even talking about regular price of bitcoin, that could go up but the most clear place we could see about bitcoin being affected due to this "war" was Iran localbitcoin exchange and people there took the price as high as 29 thousand dollars per bitcoin at one point, that was not acceptable because that is basically taking advantage of people in Iran who would like to protect their savings but they would be basically sold a marked up price of bitcoin and not saving their money at all unless there was a Venezuela type of situation.

So, with trumps talk about not escalating things and with IRR price of bitcoin dropping we can safely assume that nothing will change for bitcoin, at least not because of a "war".

Well, it did seem to go up because of the Iran troubles...but BTC is doing what I'd hoped and is staying above $8K as a result of all this. In other words, Trump's antics put BTC and Gold

back up as options to an erratic world, and IMHO, in BTC's case...reinforced the notion of halving that is coming end May 2020, I think it is?

Again, it is not like, again IMHO, the Trump Administration is 'actually' going to have consistent policies on anything in 2020 and BTC if it is really a store of value in uncertain times

should reflect this.

or not...(what do I know at one time I believed the Butterfly Labs ASIC miner hype and drank the kool-aid...I was such a cute newbie back in the day)

Brad

I wish there was an option of "there was no pump in btc price due to Iran war" because there is no war. You guys could be younger than me, you may not remember the first Iraq war and maybe remember second one a bit better but not even that totally, people who are under 30 may not remember what has happened during all of that war at all.

In iran there was a very shady business by USA that called Qasim Suleimani to Iraq for a peace negotiation and then they actually bombed and killed him, its really a horrible move to call out a guy for peace with a white flag on your hand and drop his guard and then shoot him, that is literally what USA did. In return? Iran bombed an empty place and shot down a civilian plane. None of these are good, however believe me when I say this, none of them are war acts neither, this will lead to nothing.

Indeed war has nothing to do with Bitcoin price.  Do you imagine yourself in a middle of war and rushing to buy Bitcoin?  These are all just a make up story that war enable Bitcoin price to go up.  People do have  great imagination.  They find something relevant to irrelevant stuffs.

I think it is a mix of both halving and the news about iran - us war. We know that the price of bitcoin in Iran spiked when the conflict with US started. Maybe it is already affecting the global market. Will it last? Maybe, because there is still a lot of hype about halving. The price hike is started by war news and can be sustained and maybe pushed farther up by the halving event hype.

Bitcoin went up because of the bears getting weak. The short volume got squeezed. Technicals were indicating towards the price rise. Will that fade? Not necessarily. Bitcoin price has been working like this since long now. Either some news which actually matters to the crypto community such as halving or fork, price goes up or down or technicals are strongly suggesting the movement. Price still has momentum to go up. The next resistance isn't that strong. This gonna stay for while.

One month later issues war between Iran and United State keep continue after their country have revolution with new president and government, but why many investor claimed what happen between USA and Iran become momentum for bitcoin raising back with higher price, bitcoin is unique digital payment way where not one can control and manipulated about bitcoin price.

I think it's just momentary and the time of war might be over. Iran will take a revenge but not in the near future. But the price is seeing more fluctuations and it's making alts bleed higher than normal. I think we need to give more importance towards the implementation rather than market price.

That's what I think too. It shouldn't. We can see from the past history that globally Bitcoin price wasn't affected by any political events. Those ridiculously high prices we see in the news sometimes, whether in Venezuela or in Iran or elsewhere, result from the miscalculations made by journalists. They take the price of BTC in local currency and the official rate of that currency to USD, and then they deduce the USD price of BTC in that country from the above data. But in reality you can't exchange that local currency for USD at the official rate, and if you'd use the real exchange rate, the pair USD/BTC would look as everywhere else in the world.

IMHO, BTC is affected much more by happenings in the world of crypto than by political events.

I think that the pump caused by the conflict is just temporary although it has made price to shift, leaving the 7k zone. I see these kind of issues as a market propeller. The price might not shift if not for such .

It seems to me that in fact, only a special situation is being whipped up in the media, but in fact everything is much simpler and the conflict between Iran and the United States cannot affect the cryptocurrency market on the scale that we see today in terms of prices on the cryptocurrency market. At least on January 3, when General Suleiman was killed in Iran, which caused a conflict, the Bitcoin capitalization amounted to 137 billion dollars and fluctuated between 5-10 billion until January 14 and in the last few days, Bitcoin capitalization reached 165 billion  dollars.  Although today the price of Bitcoin has slightly decreased and capitalization has also declined.  Based on this, I can assume that other factors had an influence on the cryptocurrency market, and not a conflict with Iran.
Although really such conflicts can lead to a big war, which will lead the whole world to a state of war and perhaps cryptocurrency will be in demand much more than fiat funds.

First if all USA and Iran are not at war. It's not even a conflictt, just a political tension.
Second, this has nothing to do with Bitcoin price and even if such situation continues or even gets worse I don't think that will influence Bitcoin price significantly.
Also, we are not having a pump, it was small rise but at the moment price started to pull back again so we'll.see how this is going to end.