Trump's iran War Pump in BTC Price. Will it last? Poll.

[Searing]

Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply

a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?

take the poll (I've not a clue!)

Brad

[Searing]

Reserved.

[adaseb]

There is correlation in the last week for Stocks, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin however what if the correlation is only temporarily because BTC had a double bottom at $6400 and was eventually suppose to bounce either way.

I think to prove that the correlation is true is for BTC to close above $10300 high which was made in Oct 2019 which would make a higher high and hopefully we would be back in a bull trend again. This might spark a rally to break the $13800 and hopefully go for the $20000 all time high once again.

However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.

[Coin_trader]

However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.

I'm watching on this movement too in forex and it's surprise that Oil and Gold rally has same effect on BTC. I believe this is not just a coincidence.
BTC chart looks very bearish in the last few weeks and miraculously revive right after Gold and Oil price rally. There is something behind this silly move and
I'm still expecting a huge spike on the price once this bullish movement become exhausted.

[pooya87]

Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades?

i'd say that the two events are completely irrelevant and if some bitcoin news sites never mentioned it, nobody would have even though about connecting the dots.
the reason is that this rise that has started after the 2020 new year was expected to happen long before 2020 and long before this new drama in Middle East so connecting something that was supposed to happen anyways to something else doesn't make sense to me at all.
besides i don't believe that the rest of the world trusts bitcoin that much as a safe investment yet to act on buying it  at times of crisis. if they did price would have been above $1 million already.

[btc_angela]

I voted for "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious".

To be honest, we would think that BTC could suddenly rises like this? As of the moment I'm sure majority is still at lost as what really happen. But I'm sure there could be some explanation here, specially when everything settles down.

[kotajikikox]

Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply

a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?

take the poll (I've not a clue!)

Brad

i have voted for NO CLUE because it seems that there is something wrong about the Pump,usually Prices goes up after the Halving and Not before right?and added that there is a big issue regarding this coming war from Middle east(Iran that may attract other Muslim countries to join them)against super power country USA.

as far as i see matter is not relative because we are talking about economy here and war is against economic growth so why all of a sudden Value of crypto is growing higher since the issue started?

well i will stay reading some good answers here to enlighten my questions.thanks for bringing this up OP.

[mk4]

First off, let's not automatically conclude that the pump in price was due to the Iran/US fiasco. With that said, I don't think Trump's "Iran War talk" simply fades. It's not just a "talk" now, as far as I know a war is pretty much confirmed(correct me if I'm wrong). I know friends in the US that are now going to be deployed in Iran, with saying their hopefully not last goodbyes to their respective families.

With that said, let's not hope for the worst just for BTC's price to rise. Don't be that kind of person.

[pooya87]

there is something wrong about the Pump
usually Prices goes up after the Halving and Not before right?

wrong and wrong.
this is not a pump and price has always gone up before the halving, dropped right before halving (meaning a week or so to halving), stayed down a while through halving and then rose again in about a month.

first halving 2012-11-28:
accumulation ends and price rise starts from about May from ~$4 and reaches $16.41 (310% rise)
has its first correction for about two weeks
then starts rising back up from $7.1 in August (4 months before halving) and goes to ~$14 (97% rise) until the week of halving
in the final week price stops and drops down to $12.75 (~9% drop)
stays down for a month then the bubble cycle begins and price reaches the third big bitcoin bubble in about a year at $259


second halving 2016-07-09:
the start is a bit different this time but the halving rise is identical.
accumulation is longer and happens in previous year so i skip that and the correction.
the rising back up starts about 5 months before halving from a dip in $360 and price rises back up to $778 (116% rise) until 2.5 weeks before halving.
there is a big drop, lots of FUD and a lot of panic sell that ends up taking about a month of dropping starting pre-halving and continues for 2 weeks after it.
accumulation starts and by September price is heading upwards and by the end of 2016 reaches the previous ATH at $1100

[LorenoCoin]

I have no doubt that bitcoin is mysterious, but in my opinion when talking about a war, people get nervous and start buying more things than they need, I think that in some way there is greater demand and therefore all goods begin to take more value, war can cause that psychological effect on the buyer. especially the holders.

[gabmen]

I have no doubt that bitcoin is mysterious, but in my opinion when talking about a war, people get nervous and start buying more things than they need, I think that in some way there is greater demand and therefore all goods begin to take more value, war can cause that psychological effect on the buyer. especially the holders.

I can agree with you in some way, though i don't think bitcoin is part of that demand. Especially for those people who are directly affected. With it's status today, it's not going to be easy for people owning btc to buy necessities. Bitcoin would thrive more if we're in an advanced society that's focused on moving forward rather than a war inflicted world.

[Jet Cash]

I think the corporate investment in large mining farms in the US is more significant. It's something that I predicted, and I believe that it is the start of a new phase in Bitcoin, as major investors and bankers look at ways to acquire Bitcoin,and manage their own transactions.

[bitvalak]

I don't think that can affect the movement of bitcoin. If it affects commodities and the stock market, of course I will believe because it is their influence there.
But for bitcoin I think is not their ecosystem, bitcoin can suddenly rise and fall mysteriously without being affected by the economic news that is happening right now.

[judypug1956]

I think my opinion does not matter and as the late great Doris Day use to sing


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

"que sera sera"

to all of us lets hope  the crazies on both sides  STFU  and listen to the song on youtube.





As for BTC  to the motherfucking moon baby  we don't need no stinking war.




With my youtube I voted on choice 3 I have no clue as to the why of price

[danherbias07]

Halving it is for me Brad. 

The news is fading already, that just means something right?
News not much creating hypes about Trump's discussions.
Are they anti-Trump or it is not that just big of a news for them? Dude is trying to be the fearsome leader.
Cannot see it in his face though. 

[buwaytress]

Not got a clue meself, but hey, since when has that ever stopped anyone from ever having an opinion, right?

Me, I don't see a single correlation here. If anything, US going to war with one of the world's oldest civilisations (and a nuclear power, at that), is got to be bad for global stability, bad for global economy, and as I've constantly said before, this can't be good for Bitcoin.

People keep saying falling economies and falling dollar etc means bigger Bitcoin but when people are hungry, desperate and without jobs, they don't buy bitcoin. They buy food.

US dollar rising, bitcoin rising too, btw. Doesn't make sense if we use those theories so there.

[quarkfx]

However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.

I'm watching on this movement too in forex and it's surprise that Oil and Gold rally has same effect on BTC. I believe this is not just a coincidence.
BTC chart looks very bearish in the last few weeks and miraculously revive right after Gold and Oil price rally. There is something behind this silly move and
I'm still expecting a huge spike on the price once this bullish movement become exhausted.

I was also watching price of oil and gold and stock index but in btc I think its a coincidence , generally in situations like this gold and oil will raise but btc I doubt , when trade war and other situations btc prices didn't effect

investor move there money from stock markets to stable currency , gold , but btc is also unpredictable so I don't think that raise in btc price is coincidence

[fillippone]

there is something wrong about the Pump
usually Prices goes up after the Halving and Not before right?

wrong and wrong.
this is not a pump and price has always gone up before the halving, dropped right before halving (meaning a week or so to halving), stayed down a while through halving and then rose again in about a month.

<...>

While I do agree with your analysisy (how couldn't I agree with facts?) I think this time is going to be different.
I think now people/investors/hodlers are well more aware of halving mechanism, greatly thanks to PlanB articles (I started a thread about those article a while a go: Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity ). It is true that halvings are not still entirely priced in, this is a model and not certainity, after all, but more awareness of the impact of halving on the price dynamics could lead to an improved price outlook coming into halving, and a limited downside in the aftermath.


Regarding the correlated move in oli/gold and bitcoin, I think we are referring to this graph:



https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1214695361320669185

provided the timeframe is too narrow to state there is a significant correlation, a reason might be a note released by Golman Sachs:
Geopolitical news made investors going to buy safe investments.
Today Goldman Sachs told his client that: "Gold is a better Geopolitical hedge than Oil" and "Gold is the geopolitical hedge of last resort"

We found that spikes in geopolitical tensions lead to higher gold prices when they are severe enough to cause currency debasement (see “the geopolitical hedge of last resort”). This most often happens during wars or military escalations. Accordingly, we found that gold performed well, even controlling for real rates and dollar weakness, during the beginning of both Gulf wars and during the events of September 11, 2001. Therefore, additional escalation in US-Iranian tensions could further boost gold prices. All in all, we stick with our 3, 6 and 12m forecast of $1,600/toz but see upside risks if geopolitical tensions worsen.

We find that gold can effectively hedge against geopolitical risk if the geopolitical
event is extreme enough that it leads to some sort of currency debasement, and
especially if the gold price move is much sharper than the move in real rates or
the dollar.

So Gold is rising more than oil.
Digital Gold is raising more than physical gold.


Actually a few hours later:

Fresh all time highs for gold in euros.

€45,266 a kilo

https://twitter.com/JanGold_/status/1214089342626541573?s=20


Also on Bloomberg:

Gold Nears Six-Year High as Mideast Tensions Spur Haven Demand

Gold neared a six-year high after a U.S. airstrike killed one of Iran’s most powerful generals, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East and driving demand for havens.

Bullion rallied as much as 1.6% to $1,553.52 an ounce in the spot market, reaching the highest since September. Platinum futures briefly topped $1,000 an ounce to touch the highest since early 2018 in New York, while silver and other haven assets rose.

[joelsamuya]

Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?

This will definitely be fading days from now though I am hoping to be wrong. I am then hoping that the influence of the conflict can carry Bitcoin into the halving phase -- the time when we can feel the effect of the halving to the price movement of Bitcoin. The USA-Iran conflict influence will not be lasting for weeks as there is a bigger chance that there will not be a wider conflict in between the two countries. I actually find it pity that we need to have a development like this to push Bitcoin a little bit. I am not then wondering why some people think that there is a need for more bad news so we can see more good news in Bitcoin.

[Betwrong]

I've voted "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious.". In my opinion, it's already taking too long for BTC to hit its new ATH. Iran War or not, it would go up these days anyway, but we never actually know the reasons for yet another rising. Of course it's easy to talk about the reasons post factum, but before we are there, I mean, at the new ATH, no one can say when it should happen and why.