Bitcoin Forum

The 2020 Bitcoin halving is fast approaching. Historically, the cryptocurrency has rallied to new local highs prior to the event and new all-time highs just after it.

After the halving, the supply of new Bitcoin released to miners every ten minutes will be cut in two. The 12.5 BTC rewarded with each block added to the blockchain will become 6.25. The event occurs every 210,000 blocks or about every four years. It will continue until the network has issued a total of 21,000,000 Bitcoin. There have been two prior halvings to date – one in 2012 and one in 2016.

As highlighted below by Bitcoin market analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital), the year of the halving typically sees a new market cycle top, which doesn’t exceed the prior all-time high, set in the months leading into the event itself. If this were to repeat, the new pre-halving top would be somewhere above $13,900 and below $20,000.

Halving 1:

2012 - $7.40
2013 - $15.40

Halving 2

2015 - $504
2016 - $794

Halving 3

2019 - $13.900
2020 - https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoin-halving-everything-you-need-to-know-4573dc5b528e

From: https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1214882764115329025

Full Source News here (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-top-14000-before-may-history-repeats/)
(Not click campaign, just sharing information)

I do consider such facts valid for upcoming 3rd halving as well, based on previous historical data as mentioned we can speculate it's going to go higher than previous year.

The question will become to which quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) it will happen - top up above $14.000.

How much time do you consider this will happen? Right after halving, few days, weeks or months?

Yes I agree, I think the rise will begin a couple of months before the halving.  So Q1 of this year will be the beginning of the move.  As far as the $14,000 mark, could be Q1 or Q2, but if I have to guess, I say later Q1.

I say months to year. It won't be an instant if that's for the price increase that we're waiting for because it will take time. I'm comparing the scene just like the 2016's. As we saw it during that year, the price rose after more than a year.
And that's the known bull run of 2017.

Actually in 2016, the price started to rise before the halving and continued a gradual increase.  It did take over a year for the huge rise to $20,000 but the smaller increase began much sooner.

Remember that the starting point now is $7000 to 8000 so the rise that OP is talking about to $14,000 is not the big gain that we may see in a year.

I also think the price will be affected by halving. But not because of the past years, but because of the increase in mining value. Because, when we make long term forecasts with TA in this uncertain market, there is a high probability that we will not get the expected results. That is why the mining value is the best way to calculate the actual value of a coin, and if mining expense doubles, its value should also be doubled.

if we look at bitcoin price movements in the past then bitcoin will reach a bull run after a year reduced by half. if bitcoin is reduced by half in May 2020 it is possible that bitcoin will reach the moon in the middle or the end of 2021. and also usually bitcoin will increase before it is reduced by half but until now the value of bitcoin is still stable at $ 7k - $ 8k. so in my opinion bitcoin will reach a price of $ 14,000 in the third quarter of this year.

If we based solely on history, price hikes because of halving often occur half a year after the halving itself. Taking into account FOMO because of what happened the last halving, we may actually see it happen much earlier, a quarter of a year or so and we would probably see a constant rise in BTC price, hopefully that is.
On the contrary, there may be actually a slight chance of the halving having 0 effects on the market, especially since the market has already experienced quite a bubble last halving. This has let the market know of what the halving may actually bring, and therefore, the traders themselves already know what to do to stop it from happening, or at least let themselves only profit from the said event.

History repeating itself is probably inaccurate. You're talking about a cycle repeating here but you're only using 2 past instances -- which is the bare minimum to establish any sort of cyclical pattern.

I've no doubt halving, along with every other aspect of Bitcoin's design -- difficulty adjustment, fixed supply, fee structure, among others -- will all contribute to a gradual increase in valuation. Halving's just part of this scarcity and deflationary model.

I can not be sure whether the first quarter will increase to the price of $14,000 but I always look at history before halving occurs always tends to go up but not too big and I have not found TA on this year.
Many say 2021 is the peak of bitcoin can reach ATH again and that many say TA experts, but I do not care about it, I want to see in the year bictoin is now at the price of $15000 I do not have this problem in Q4 too.

if earlier this year we went above $ 10k it would be very easy to get $ 14k before halving later, we saw last year 2019 where the price of bitcoin increased from the beginning to the middle of the year, history could repeat itself we will see another price increase before and after halving bitcoin later, everyone is watching the movement of bitcoin at this time, I am still the same on the right side where people who believe that the history of bitcoin prices will be repeated again this year and next year, I cannot give a lot of my analysis here for fear later if the whales play the price with all of us traders  ;D

A hike of I'd say by the end of the year sounds right. Though judging by the past halvings can be a bit of a forced push tbh. Sure, almost every halving, we have seen an almost same development, just in different scales. The latest one was the biggest one so far, but when compared to the others, it was just a larger scale, halvings bring BTC to new heights. But expecting it to happen this year seems farfetched and the same time you can't really help but believe it because of what happened in the past.  

Back on topic, if the halving does indeed have an effect, 4 months or so should be enough to see it. If we see a slight decrease then sudden rally after 4 months, then that may be an indicator of the halving actually has an effect, one that is the same of the past.

I want to believe that, but unfortunately, we don't know what will happen in May, but we can predict what will happens. I prefer to follow the bitcoin journey without having high expectations about bitcoin, although I really want to see bitcoin price will increase so high for more than $20k. I am sure and believe that bitcoin will hit that price again, and no matter if that will happen this year or not, bitcoin price will start to increases at the right time.

So what I do right now, I am trying to make more and more bitcoin, so if the time for bitcoin increase comes, I can have much bitcoin that will be ready to sell at a higher price.

It's just a speculation and maybe those figures will not come up since we are not sure on what will happen in future and better brace ourselves for any possibilities since we might gonna see some good changes or maybe we will stay at the current figure even if the halving occur. But I'm positive even though our hopes for bullish erased this month that maybe in next coming years we can see the biggest trend.

We already reached that price last year, so I think people will just say it is just normal to go back there.
Exceeding that amount though could make another hype.
A hype of the return of $20k but it will not be December anymore.

This is just a speculation though, they might just be waiting for that $20k to come but expect a big dump afterwards.
2 years of waiting from those who FOMO and now they could at least ROI.

I don't think that by the first quarter we'll probably see it. I'm counting by 3rd to 4th quarter. There's not that much action before the halving and if basing to the example of what op has, the pumps occurred after those halvings.

As you can see those "experts" are very bullish for this year but we should be careful too while listening to them. 2021 might be ideal but it can also be different this time. $14,000 before May might happen but also be also open to the possibility that it might happen after that month.

But OP, if the halving is NOT truly priced in, shouldn't the price be $14,000 NOW because of the excitement of wanting to be the first to buy before it's $14,000 "before May"?

I really  wanted to see history repeats itself which means this halving can make  Bitcoin rally towards its new all time high.  It is logical to think that Bitcoin will reach around $14k-$20k tange if we based it to the price of Bitcoin before those previous halving event.  We see some major recovery this past days, probably it is the sign that Bitcoin trend is going bullish towards the Bitcoin halving event.

There are so many analysis, and I like that every analysis are all about another all-time high, I will limit myself from doing more analysis and will just take things as they come, I'm ok Bitcoin at $10000 or even more, I just want my current campaign to continue where I will be getting a continuous supply of Bitcoin ina daily basis, the timing is just right instead of investing my own money I have a campaign paying on Bitcoin.

I can understand that price of bitcoin could go a lot in 2021 but in 2020 we should not have that much expectations. Do not forget that fact that on the previous halvings there wasn't this much people involved and it didn't required this much money to increase the price. Taking the price from 500 to 700 is not as difficult as taking it from $7k to $14k for example, that is a whole different level of money required.

Additionally, there are more people involved in bitcoin now and they all heard about the halving and maybe they already bought for it as well. So, maybe you are right, maybe it will increase but there is always a chance of it not doing what we expect it to do as well and we can't ignore that. Hopefully there will be miners who will refuse to sell for a loss and we will increase the price.

Not too fast because what you basically made is just based on pure speculation. No one can tell what's the future but someone can predict through speculation based on the recent events. Bitcoin hitting $14,000 before May is quite far from what i have expected and doubt it will ever touch before May.

Bitcoin is now very popular, this is the most awaited year of all where halving will happen. Those who are not really a blockchain aficionado will not mind but once the news is out that the cycle is about to repeat itself those people will take their money out from the banks to try to profit from the bullrun. $20k may just be the too little when we reach the next ATH stop.

With the present market price of Bitcoin what's been predicted to reach in accordance with the previous growth history is one form of calculation about the market. $14000 is way far from the present value of Bitcoin. History repeats itself, but it won't happen in a very short interval. Until now there is no big price pumping in the market, same as the previous year maybe from the second quarter the growth can begin.

At the current price movement? No. As crazy as bitcoin price movement can be, I think it will not cover 6K in less than 5 months. There will still be some manipulators that will not let the price move up too much before the halving.

We may not reach 14K before the halving but maybe after. My best guess is early Q4 that the price will go bull big time.

bitcoin already rose before up 1000 usd in less than day ; bitcoin can reach 14000 usd if buy order rise or people buying bitcoin before halving . gennerally if bull run start again there is a higher possibility that prices reach prices of summer 2019 or 14000 usd per btc and it is not difficult at all

Everything is possible in the cryptocurrency market, there are many people who think that by 2020 the cryptocurrency market will grow strongly and I believe in that too. May is a very good time for bitcoin to reach $ 14,000.
I would expect bitcoin to reach $ 9000 in early February, $ 11,000 in early March, $ 12700 in early April and $ 14,000 in early May.

This thread provides a video with a clear explanation of where Bitcoin should be at the halving and 3-6 months afterwards and during the height of the coming bull.

14K is not accurate going off the past halving cycles.

Take a look, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5201543.new#new

While I would love for the price of bitcoin to do something like that to me that seems to be too easy, unless we are going to see a massive will run at the end of this year or at the beginning of the next one it is more likely that the price of bitcoin is going to remain close to the current levels and at most it will reach a price of 10,000 dollars for each bitcoin and after the halving then we can expect a more pronounced growth in the market.

Based on previous halvings, it makes sense for the price to rise that much.

I would not be surprised if it increased to an even higher price after the halving.

Half the pay for double the work Historical data shows higher prices after, but with the odd long term down turn, hard to hold that faith, but it would be nice. However, by halving the new daily supply of mined bitcoins is reduced by 50%. If demand for Bitcoin continues at this current rate, then price will likely increase as demand is higher than supply. Right now $14.5 million in new money must be introduced each day just to maintain it's current price. But after halving, that $14.5 million is now only getting half that supply, so, simple economics.

if we look on the dates , the price increase in a progressive manner the longer the coin exist .

imo that wasnt halving that made the price big but it was because of the people , curios people that constantly entering here on the bitcoin scene . sure history can repeat itself knowing that bitcoin right now was already on the spotlight , sooner or later the remaining few restricted countries will join the party. which will help contribute some in the value .

We all are hoping for that kind of elevation but we need to understand the sentiment of the community. There were more people in 2017 and now they are not as supportive as they were. We may reach this price in the future but right now it will be hard without a strong volume.

Those who believe that coin halving will have some impact on bitcoin price are busy in buying bitcoin at current dip. I don't think history repeat itself again and again. If bitcoin goes above 10k$ there will be not many who will buy bitcoin, seeing the real world usage or adoption rate.

Weird how people keeps on making this kind of predictions, but most of them never turns out to be true. I also remember reading somewhere that the price of the coins actually starts to fall before (or probably was after) halving, so since you are saying history repeats itself, then shouldn't the price actually be dropping? Also, the price you showed, wer the price taken actually right after (or before) the halving? Or few weeks/months after the recovery?

actually i believe that Halving will Give us all positive outcome but i don't wanna exaggerate on matter because we have seen the power of the whales to make things different from our perspectives .

what?10k$?lol if the market continue to grow before or just after the halving for sure even if this value goes 12k$ people will surely Buy more.and we have seen the last Halving ,those who did not bought before september regret their decisions .

One of the assumption of technical analysis is that history repeat itself so there is really a possibility that the price of the bitcoin can reach its previous price again. The halving can become a factor to the boost of the price of the bitcoin, there are now many investors that are waiting to the halving because they are aware to the features that bitcoin can acquire after that halving.

People always predict the bitcoin price will rise after halving. But people do not think that prices will probably collapse if people put too much faith in it. I personally also hope that bitcoin can increase after halving, but given the current situation I'm scared because there are so many people buying at the current price and waiting for halving. This could cause bitcoin prices to collapse in the future because of the laws of supply and demand. If this is the case, then bitcoin can go down to 5000 $

We cannot be sure if history will repeat itself this time especially because the price of Bitcoin right now is not as low as it used to be in the previous halvings. But $14,000 before May is within reach. If this growth that we experience right now will be sustained, it is very possible that Bitcoin will hit $14,000 in the next 4 months or even earlier.

After halving you think like that, so majority of the investors are continues active in crypto market. I believe again it cross the more than 13k USD on before june, Because continues investment make continues hype on Bitcoin so as soon as possible gradual hype will occur in Bitcoin. Finally we can believe the Bitcoin it will raise gradually on further days.

I would like to remind everyone that whatever happened in the past doesn't have to happen in the future at all. Just because something once happened at the same thing, doesn't really mean we will react to it exactly the same this time around as well, there are different people, different amounts of money involved and even a different world we live.

However, considering what makes bitcoin go up is people actually buying bitcoin and due to all of this halving, Libra, Iran, trading options etc etc all other things people are very hyped and fomo'ing about bitcoin I am sure they will keep on buying and since price only goes up when others buy, the price will in return go up as well due to all that FOMO going on. Hopefully we will get no backlash and drop horribly like from $20k to $3k that happened, I want a more sustainable increase this time around.

Such threads gonna lead to more speculation which in turn will make people FOMO and this would lead to a price rise. I don't think that this rise will halving as the basis. It will be more of euphoric rise. People speculating and buying in. Halving is indeed a big thing for Bitcoin but it won't matter much if you only focus on supply and demand. But the price prediction surrounding it can change the sentiments to the great extent.

I don't think the price would rise due to speculation making people to FOMO. They will only lose their investment if they panic selling, they should know that if there's a price growth the possibility that it's a bull trap is higher. I didn't notice this kind of pump in the last halving part where before halving there's a sudden price increase.

This is a true statement as the past performance might not mean that the price would rally the same but after halving the price should rally consider the amount of bitcoin that is getting lower to get in the market after halving and that must have an impact in the price and so is the reason Satoshi planned to with the halving cycle. 

---

@OP if the price is able to break the resistance and move over $10k then it is well and good as i will be making a lot of profit considering i was able to invest when the price dumped completely and everyone is waiting for the rally.

Yes these thread will definitely create FOMO amongst new users but I have been into crypto for years and this time even I feel the market will repeat 2017 due to halving and it's after affect but this particular pump will not last longer as it now looks like a trap in order to dump the market hard before the halving.

Before May is only Q1 or Q2. So considering article you quoted this is not the question. Halving pump should happen in end of April and start of May. And dumb will follow at end of May and beginning of June.

Traders will likely "price in" the halving earlier than that. In 2016, the halving pump began and ended long before the actual event took place. Chances are the dump will occur in April (or possibly sooner, depending when the preceding rally begins).

https://i.imgur.com/jZa1ZwL.png

It's tough to know when will b the exact pump will take place, there's no assurance whether before or after the halving the only matter is how you
prepare yourself and your investment. Anticipating the potential market movement according to your own observation and assessment or else
you'll be trapped up without knowing the right position to take.

very sceptical of all the predictions and hype around the halving and the potential bull run
people expect too much of it and the disappointment could be big , imagine the price dropping ( and it is not an outlandish scenario , right) and all of the analysts eating their baseball caps without salt :)
historically , the price goes up , but we are in a different period of maturity of bitcoin and the things could change , this could be the first halving when the price drops!  :D
well , just kidding , , realistically , it should increase even if ever so slightly at first
as soon as the less efficient miners stop operations and selling coins , the price should go up because of the supply/demand if nothing else
do not discount black swans that can happen , we are on a brink of war nowadays - who knows what the future brings

There is an old saying here on forum, when you see a hype sell, when you see people panic than you buy. Hype around the halving started months ago, and there is 6 more months to go! And big yes, some people expect too much from halving, we can see that by the comments and topics here, but not just here! I think that most people will be disappointed when bitcoin price don't make a significant move, and it probably won't, at least not right after the halving. Some serious increase will happen months after halving, it was like that in 2012 and 2016, we will see what will happen this time, but most likely is that we will not see big pump before 2021.

You can easily tell that what is happening right now is due to hype, when the price increases because there is a higher demand we see a slow growth similar to what we so at the beginning of the previous year but when the price increases just because of speculation then we see an explosive growth and it is precisely because of this reason that I'm not convinced the growth that we are experimenting is going to last long and most likely a correction is coming.

I'm not sure bitcoin will reach $ 14k before May. because right now the price of bitcoin is still stable at $ 8k. to be $ 14k means that bitcoin has to increase by around 70%. to be able to go up high of course there must be a strong push that causes the price of bitcoin to increase. hopefully the next 4 months there is good news that can push the increase in bitcoin.

I do think that we can still goes for another all-time-high, but this time, it will take more time as compare to the previous bull runs we have right after halving. Yes, investors mature and no longer irrational as they gain experience specially if they have been in crypto in 2017.

But I'm sure all-time-high is achievable maybe 2021-2023. BSV or at least CSW is no longer a threat, maybe it can have a negative impact but in the long run, the market will just forget about them and it will run its normal course.

Yes, bitcoin halving has seen price rise and this is why bitcoin is now at this price range of 7k - 8k in fluctuation.
Therefore, with the expected halving, after the new ATH that might be reached, we could now see price stability maybe at 10k - 11k range or 15k-20k range because we are going to have some more demand greater than we have now.

What kind of news are you expecting to help bitcoin rise in price? We have a very active market right now, with us going to halving in mid-May. And I'm sure this is the best news Bitcoin has this year, the price of bitcoin has increased by more than 20% in the past month and so 70% in the next few months is workable. Let's see what will happen in the next few months for bitcoin and this market

All of those that want that history repeats itself are just showing that they would like for the opportunity to make money in the markets to appear again but they want that everything happens in the same way so they can maximize their profits and such people will never make money because that is not possible, if you want to make money then you need to be able to deal with the seemingly random nature of the markets since you never know what the price will do next with any degree of certainty.

Of course that is possible but just like other speculation, there's no assurance, it could happen or maybe not. If you will think, $14k is achievable within that time span before halving but, as you can see base on current situation there's no continues rise. Situation like this could possibly happen again along the way that could interrupt our interest in reaching $14k before halving. Btc is capable of increasing big in a short period of time but we don't know when it's going to happen.

$14,000 before May would do very nicely but I’m sceptical. I think we’ll have to wait until post halving for this kind of price, maybe Q4 2020.

Let's hope that the trend will come into reality, after a bearish period for most part of the last 2 years, I think price have already dip and there's a reason for it to rise again, and this halving is possible a game changer for the market this year.

I am counting on that possibility, so I am betting we will be seeing $14000 up this year.

If we compare the previous price on the result after the next halving come (the first and second halving) they are all successfully rising up after the reward halving effectively happened. So, probably at that time (Q4 of this year) bitcoin price will raise up and repeat itself as what happens on those previous events.

But we can't predict this, theories and speculations were still going on and there is a negative and positive side discussion on it but the fact, no one knows. Let's wait on it and let the time will reveal the truth, at least we are ready and done accumulating.

I am not part of investing with bitcoin but I really want bitcoin can back with higher price because I still bigger hope for bitcoin during with higher price can give motivate and new way to make altcoin raise to higher price too, I can't imagine looking for altcoin could raising to higher price without bitcoin keep stable with on the top price.

You can wish that but you might miss the train if you don't have bitcoins and you're only relying to altcoins. Start saving some bitcoins now while not disposing your altcoins or you have an option to do that if you want as long as you have bitcoin. It might take several months but there could also be some surprising moments as we're waiting for that time. And there's also a tendency that bitcoin might cause plummet to most altcoins while it's rising so think of it.

But it probably will be a slower rise, and don't expect new all time highs this year. Could be a slow 2017 rise, or even slower.

Probably we have a different market trend than previous halves.
$14k projected for May is still a long way for crypto to move before we achieve it but giving in to the doubt that we can get it since most prices rise after halving. Anyway, we are not disclosing it for any possibilities for a surprise price strike and we are hopeful about that but we don't have to expect it nor to think that the market will run smoothly, straight highs cause it surely we experience some downfalls along the way. And that is the reality in crypto.

Then we should wait for 2021 bull run then. I'm also a bit skeptical to see a dramatic rise this year. If people are thinking because of the halving then we need to reconsider that during 2016 halving, the price didn't just pump, it took a full year to finally see a bullish trend.

So 2020 will be a slow ascend, and then followed by bullish run in 2021 if history are going to repeat itself, just saying.

We are always assuming of the possibility of history repeating itself because we can easily go back then in time and see what happened but of course in reality there will always be differences and there will be no guarantee whatsoever, much more with a very volatile asset like Bitcoin. However, if more and more people will be convinced that something can happen in the way it should be then who knows things can be considered as just self-fulfilling predictions. I am not complaining though if the same thing can happen with Bitcoin due to the power of the coming halving around May 2020 which is fast approaching actually. Right now, Bitcoin is moving and there is a big chance for some more bullish days ahead of us and we are still in January.

It is with high probability that Bitcoin will hit $14,000 before May. And this is not just about history repeating itself. Bitcoin will always be rising and falling. It is not surprising if Bitcoin will get back to $14,000 once again. It has already been there at least a couple of times in the past so it is bound to happen again.

BTC will have an all time low in new supply and a healthy, steadily growing ecosystem in the mainstream, so we are in new territory never seen before. 

Most likely bitcoin will reach $ 14000-15000 before May because after halving is successful I think all investors will sell and make a profit. Like LTC in 2019, the price Fomo went up very high before halving but soon the price quickly fell. And this time for bitcoin I think it will move in a similar way, buying bitcoin now and selling it before halving starts would be a good strategy.

I mean, extrapolating past trends into the future is not always an accurate means of prediction.

I'd say that it is more than likely we're going to see a bull run, there's little doubt about that because of the fact that BTC is indeed based on these 4 year market cycles that drives its pricing, and that we're just out of a bear market that spanned 2 or so years.

But to state the magnitude of the upcoming bull run based on past data is quite inaccurate, imo, because of the fact that the market is nowhere near as immature as it was a couple of years back and as a result, not as volatile. It also has a larger market cap which makes it harder to move.

I think the price would increase between Q1 and Q2.
I expect that it would be around Q1-Q2  to see the start of the Bitcoin price rise up.
But I also expect the price to drop down after the halving.

I doubt bitcoin can reach $ 14k before May because at the end of January the price of bitcoin is still stable at $ 8,800. my target of bitcoin will be to reach $ 10k before being reduced by half in May. and my prediction at the end of this year is that bitcoin will reach $ 15k. it is very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin everything is possible in the bitcoin market.

the potential to repeat history is possible, because the difference between Bitcoin this year and years ago is mass adoption, we know that crypto currencies are now widely adopted by countries and large companies, the Bank has also accepted Bitcoin, this makes the bull trend come

I like to believe that it will happen, so I am getting ready for that, price going beyond $14,000 is a good sign for the market as it's close to its new high and when there is a bull run, price moving crazy and very unpredictable.

certainly everyone who experience misses that, that's why it's still in our mind now and even with a sudden pump, we already think it's the start of the bull run, and that's why we were also abuse by the whales because they know what we are thinking.

anyway, I'll go with the flow, when btc hit that price, might dump some but will sell all my holding once a new ATH is achieve. , that's a promise.

I think the deflationary nature of Bitcoin will make it more valuable because of scarcity. I expect the price to continue to rise compared to inflationary currency.

That's exactly what I am saying. It does not have anything to do with the reasoning that since it occurred at this particular time in the past, it will also occur this time around. It is simply about Bitcoin gaining traction in terms of adoption around the world. It is about Bitcoin gaining more and more followers, users, and investors. It is about Bitcoin having no other direction really but upwards. So all those past high prices will naturally be achieved once again in the future, although we do not really know when exactly that will happen.

Why do you expect prices to fall after halving? It is better that prices can be reduced now so people can buy more Bitcoin and wait for halving. I firmly believe that after halving occurs, the price of bitcoin will be much higher than now, from now until May is the best opportunity for us to buy BTC and hold, the current price is definitely for the lowest this year

I don't think that BTC might reach 14k till May. The prices of up and down every day this year could be an Impact of Chinese New year who knows, Even if it reaches 14k that's not a surprise for me because it has did in the past. Everyone are very keen on halving and lot of speculation reveals we can make good profit if we start investing now and I too believe this strategy will work. Let's believe in crypto for a good future that's all I can say guys...

I wouldn't say that it's impossible, but it's unlikely for sure.

I don't doubt that BTC will breakout at some stage during the year. However, I doubt that prices are going to rally significantly ex ante the halving. In fact, the majority of the growth in price has come post-halving, and around 1-2 years after the halving is when we generally see the peak in BTC price growth.

So even if history holds up this time, it's very unlikely that we'll see significant rallies this early on.

could be yes and could be no. I'm used to seeing predictions with analysis like this but in the end it won't necessarily happen as expected.
although it does not mean this is not possible, everything can happen if there are determinants later.

There is assumption in technical analysis which is history may repeat itself and the possibility is really high, as long as the market will continue to become a uptrend, there is always possibility that the price of bitcoin may reach $14000 per each before the month of May.
The momentum of bitcoin is becoming more strong, the correction is already finished so we should now expect that there will be a momentum moves but we should also expect that there will be pullbacks and retrace so we should be careful on entering the trade.

I wish this was true but bitcoin is volatile once again, yet of course it is bitcoin we are talking about so anything could happen really.

Anyone here thinks that bitcoin "could" have reached $14k if it kept going up but now that it got stable again and all that volatility of $7k to $9k to $8.5k etc etc things that happened hurt the price? I personally would rather pick a slower and more stable increase over these insane movements, sure it is great to get from almost under $7k levels to over $9k all the time but when you do that so quickly, the people who have sell orders start getting their orders executed and you do not give them enough time to remove those in order get higher. Anyway, let's hope that $14k is still in the books, even if not before may, at least before 2021.

Indeed, great things have come to us somehow before and even higher than $14,000. Has this thing meant achievable this year? Absolutely, there is but we have to wait it and keep believing. The halving event will be in May, and we take a look at the past halving usually price soars high a few months after which I may think that $14k is yet to be considered as achievable but not before May.

expectations this year are indeed quite large compared to the previous year. at the moment I don't see the possibility that bitcoin prices can reach those prices before halving, but the potential price increase might occur before the month of May, that's because after halving, mining bitcoin becomes a little longer, so most investors will stock bitcoin, it might be able triggering prices to approach $ 14,000.

seems like this Hope is not coming the right way because now we are seeing the downfall again of crypto specially Bitcoin.
since yesterday all we see is Negative percentage until now and it is alarming specially for those weak hands that might get panicking and sell our their coins.
nothing is particular in speculation mate that is why it is speculative because non are certain.
but if we are supporters and we believe in future and not just quick profit?then we can stand this scenarios towards profiting future.

Possibilities doesn't mean that we are having assurance of its occurence. It is reallh possible that there might be a halving since we have gone through continuous downfall before but the problem is knowing when will it happen. Positive marks are now observable in the market but I don't think it is an enough sign to tell us recovery will come soon. Maybe, it is too soon to assume for the occurence of such thing and waiting for a little longer would be more advisable.

The Chinese New year would surely have significant impact on the price of bitcoin in Q1 we all aware that annual celebration of that event is always synonymous with a price drop of bitcoin definitely this year wouldn't be an exception, the much talk about price reaching $14K should be aftermath of the halving from my own point of view thereafter the price might head to to higher price mark.

I have checked what the cost of mining is for many corporations recently, I have seen that from best of zero basically because they don't need to pay electricity to average of $5k and even at highest levels it is close to 6k and that is literally small timer bad bill prices etc, anyone above are basically just individuals and not a whole lot of things going on there.

It basically tells me we are talking about how the mining will make sure it is going higher however there are huge corporations that mine for $3k-$4k right now, even at the double rate of that its $6k-$8k prices we are talking about for the cost of mining bitcoin, I am not saying price should stay like this but that is already very close as it is right now. Think about it, if price stays around these levels, miners would still make money, at least the rich whale huge corporation miners would still make money, maybe halving doesn't have to increase the price at all.

Look at the price righy now its already bounce after touching the 8200+ level thats why I believe that chinese new year bring bitcoin to bounce but I'm expecting to drop at 8500 to $8600.
But I'm still hoping that OP predictiob will come true this coming May.

Good point.  And bitcoin has already been above $20k, so anything below that most likely won't kick off a crazy bull market like we saw in 2017.

I agree with your second statement fully.  Right now bitcoin has been pooped out for months, and even if it reached $14k that would still be some pretty good progress and would no doubt spark people's interest in it again.  Nothing brings people into the market like rising prices, though that can be dangerous.

Anyway, $14k before May might be good.  That's less than a doubling over the course of four months, and I don't think that's too steep a rise as to be unsustainable as long as it doesn't keep skyrocketing.  But honestly I'd be more than happy if bitcoin just got back to $10k by May.

I doubt that Chinese New Year has anything to do with this. 'Cause may be it is just natural circumstances that price are bouncing off after gradually decreasing, and we just bring some events to justify on what's happening in the market which is on the other hand could be one of the many factors existing, worse ain't even have any effect.

You look afraid with Chinese new year because bitcoin can going to lower price, but I keep optimist bitcoin always have higher price although what ever bad news but bitcoin keep strong, now we are waiting how most effective change of bitcoin halving make fantastic price for bitcoin become most expensive commodity price.

This current situation of bitcoins price isn't predictable at all since it's decreased the past few days, I don't know if it will increase in the next few weeks or the price will be stable at this range. I think it might reach 14k$ after the halving and not before it, that's my prediction for now.

I'd love to hear and seeing that will be going to happen but the question is, is the market seems to be like that? No question about its capability but the thing that we should have to look for and consider most is if the market is having such resistance to normally pump and not by just because of the hypes. Because if we look at its market resistance, in a certain thing that it won't be enough to move that market to that high.

And by that, I'm not confident enough to see Bitcoin reach at $14k before May. It can be possible to see it this year as we still have enough time for market recovery.

14k before the halving does not seem possible to me, when the price reached 14k during last year that was a great surprise, no one was expecting that the price will go so high and that is why it happened, now that everyone is expecting the market to go up I do not believe it will happen, the whales are not going to allow that everyone makes money except themselves and if they have to manipulate the market to get their way then they are going to do it, and they will force the price to go down and make a lot of people to lose money as result of this move.

Me either, it always seems like there is a wall ahead.
But it is being broken in time. It ain't like before where it moves by thousands. Now, it just go by hundreds for every week and that is a good sign.

May though is a different story. $14k might be really reachable. If we look at the market now the pacing is getting faster. Moves up and down without any events going on. Back to being a super volatile bitcoin.
I really though it would go $9k and it will be the bottom. Who knows, January ain't done yet.

He didn't sound afraid, he only wanted to point out that the Chinese New Year most likely shouldn't have an effect to the price of Bitcoin. And I agree if there would be a significant change during these days it'll just be a coincidence because looking back at the price of Bitcoin in the previous years there's barely any pattern we could notice.

Bitcoin has won many battles already and it is fine to be optimistic because bitcoin can be trusted no matter the bad news there is because bitcoin is created to be strong. A lot of factors may affect bitcoin's price it can be a worlwide event, a world crisis, scam news or whatever but no matter what it is bitcoin will surely bounce back all the times.

Right but actually eventhough it happen but still doesn't guarantee anything since as we see on the several months the price got dump so hard and the unpredictability of the Bitcoin still a mystery so maybe we can get a different result since the demand is different what compare on the previous years and I think the hype is strong way back those unlike today where many people are still scared.