Bitcoin going beyond $14,000 before May, history repeating itself

[DreamStage]

The 2020 Bitcoin halving is fast approaching. Historically, the cryptocurrency has rallied to new local highs prior to the event and new all-time highs just after it.

After the halving, the supply of new Bitcoin released to miners every ten minutes will be cut in two. The 12.5 BTC rewarded with each block added to the blockchain will become 6.25. The event occurs every 210,000 blocks or about every four years. It will continue until the network has issued a total of 21,000,000 Bitcoin. There have been two prior halvings to date – one in 2012 and one in 2016.

As highlighted below by Bitcoin market analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital), the year of the halving typically sees a new market cycle top, which doesn’t exceed the prior all-time high, set in the months leading into the event itself. If this were to repeat, the new pre-halving top would be somewhere above $13,900 and below $20,000.

Halving 1:

2012 - $7.40
2013 - $15.40

Halving 2

2015 - $504
2016 - $794

Halving 3

2019 - $13.900
2020 - https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoin-halving-everything-you-need-to-know-4573dc5b528e

From: https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1214882764115329025

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I do consider such facts valid for upcoming 3rd halving as well, based on previous historical data as mentioned we can speculate it's going to go higher than previous year.

The question will become to which quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) it will happen - top up above $14.000.

How much time do you consider this will happen? Right after halving, few days, weeks or months?

[outatime1]

Yes I agree, I think the rise will begin a couple of months before the halving.  So Q1 of this year will be the beginning of the move.  As far as the $14,000 mark, could be Q1 or Q2, but if I have to guess, I say later Q1.

[batang_bitcoin]

How much time do you consider this will happen? Right after halving, few days, weeks or months?

I say months to year. It won't be an instant if that's for the price increase that we're waiting for because it will take time. I'm comparing the scene just like the 2016's. As we saw it during that year, the price rose after more than a year.
And that's the known bull run of 2017.

[moviebuff777]

How much time do you consider this will happen? Right after halving, few days, weeks or months?

I say months to year. It won't be an instant if that's for the price increase that we're waiting for because it will take time. I'm comparing the scene just like the 2016's. As we saw it during that year, the price rose after more than a year.
And that's the known bull run of 2017.

Actually in 2016, the price started to rise before the halving and continued a gradual increase.  It did take over a year for the huge rise to $20,000 but the smaller increase began much sooner.

Remember that the starting point now is $7000 to 8000 so the rise that OP is talking about to $14,000 is not the big gain that we may see in a year.

[tenakha]

I also think the price will be affected by halving. But not because of the past years, but because of the increase in mining value. Because, when we make long term forecasts with TA in this uncertain market, there is a high probability that we will not get the expected results. That is why the mining value is the best way to calculate the actual value of a coin, and if mining expense doubles, its value should also be doubled.

[barabarian1]

if we look at bitcoin price movements in the past then bitcoin will reach a bull run after a year reduced by half. if bitcoin is reduced by half in May 2020 it is possible that bitcoin will reach the moon in the middle or the end of 2021. and also usually bitcoin will increase before it is reduced by half but until now the value of bitcoin is still stable at $ 7k - $ 8k. so in my opinion bitcoin will reach a price of $ 14,000 in the third quarter of this year.

[Wexnident]

If we based solely on history, price hikes because of halving often occur half a year after the halving itself. Taking into account FOMO because of what happened the last halving, we may actually see it happen much earlier, a quarter of a year or so and we would probably see a constant rise in BTC price, hopefully that is.
On the contrary, there may be actually a slight chance of the halving having 0 effects on the market, especially since the market has already experienced quite a bubble last halving. This has let the market know of what the halving may actually bring, and therefore, the traders themselves already know what to do to stop it from happening, or at least let themselves only profit from the said event.

[buwaytress]

History repeating itself is probably inaccurate. You're talking about a cycle repeating here but you're only using 2 past instances -- which is the bare minimum to establish any sort of cyclical pattern.

I've no doubt halving, along with every other aspect of Bitcoin's design -- difficulty adjustment, fixed supply, fee structure, among others -- will all contribute to a gradual increase in valuation. Halving's just part of this scarcity and deflationary model.

[bassbity]

I can not be sure whether the first quarter will increase to the price of $14,000 but I always look at history before halving occurs always tends to go up but not too big and I have not found TA on this year.
Many say 2021 is the peak of bitcoin can reach ATH again and that many say TA experts, but I do not care about it, I want to see in the year bictoin is now at the price of $15000 I do not have this problem in Q4 too.

[piebeyb]

if earlier this year we went above $ 10k it would be very easy to get $ 14k before halving later, we saw last year 2019 where the price of bitcoin increased from the beginning to the middle of the year, history could repeat itself we will see another price increase before and after halving bitcoin later, everyone is watching the movement of bitcoin at this time, I am still the same on the right side where people who believe that the history of bitcoin prices will be repeated again this year and next year, I cannot give a lot of my analysis here for fear later if the whales play the price with all of us traders 

[panganib999]

A hike of I'd say by the end of the year sounds right. Though judging by the past halvings can be a bit of a forced push tbh. Sure, almost every halving, we have seen an almost same development, just in different scales. The latest one was the biggest one so far, but when compared to the others, it was just a larger scale, halvings bring BTC to new heights. But expecting it to happen this year seems farfetched and the same time you can't really help but believe it because of what happened in the past.  

Back on topic, if the halving does indeed have an effect, 4 months or so should be enough to see it. If we see a slight decrease then sudden rally after 4 months, then that may be an indicator of the halving actually has an effect, one that is the same of the past.

[michellee]

I want to believe that, but unfortunately, we don't know what will happen in May, but we can predict what will happens. I prefer to follow the bitcoin journey without having high expectations about bitcoin, although I really want to see bitcoin price will increase so high for more than $20k. I am sure and believe that bitcoin will hit that price again, and no matter if that will happen this year or not, bitcoin price will start to increases at the right time.

So what I do right now, I am trying to make more and more bitcoin, so if the time for bitcoin increase comes, I can have much bitcoin that will be ready to sell at a higher price.

[Taskford]

It's just a speculation and maybe those figures will not come up since we are not sure on what will happen in future and better brace ourselves for any possibilities since we might gonna see some good changes or maybe we will stay at the current figure even if the halving occur. But I'm positive even though our hopes for bullish erased this month that maybe in next coming years we can see the biggest trend.

[danherbias07]

We already reached that price last year, so I think people will just say it is just normal to go back there.
Exceeding that amount though could make another hype.
A hype of the return of $20k but it will not be December anymore.

This is just a speculation though, they might just be waiting for that $20k to come but expect a big dump afterwards.
2 years of waiting from those who FOMO and now they could at least ROI.

[sunsilk]

I can not be sure whether the first quarter will increase to the price of $14,000 but I always look at history before halving occurs always tends to go up but not too big and I have not found TA on this year.
Many say 2021 is the peak of bitcoin can reach ATH again and that many say TA experts, but I do not care about it, I want to see in the year bictoin is now at the price of $15000 I do not have this problem in Q4 too.

I don't think that by the first quarter we'll probably see it. I'm counting by 3rd to 4th quarter. There's not that much action before the halving and if basing to the example of what op has, the pumps occurred after those halvings.

As you can see those "experts" are very bullish for this year but we should be careful too while listening to them. 2021 might be ideal but it can also be different this time. $14,000 before May might happen but also be also open to the possibility that it might happen after that month.

[Wind_FURY]

But OP, if the halving is NOT truly priced in, shouldn't the price be $14,000 NOW because of the excitement of wanting to be the first to buy before it's $14,000 "before May"?

[bitcoindusts]

I really  wanted to see history repeats itself which means this halving can make  Bitcoin rally towards its new all time high.  It is logical to think that Bitcoin will reach around $14k-$20k tange if we based it to the price of Bitcoin before those previous halving event.  We see some major recovery this past days, probably it is the sign that Bitcoin trend is going bullish towards the Bitcoin halving event.

[coin-investor]

There are so many analysis, and I like that every analysis are all about another all-time high, I will limit myself from doing more analysis and will just take things as they come, I'm ok Bitcoin at $10000 or even more, I just want my current campaign to continue where I will be getting a continuous supply of Bitcoin ina daily basis, the timing is just right instead of investing my own money I have a campaign paying on Bitcoin.

[davinchi]

I can understand that price of bitcoin could go a lot in 2021 but in 2020 we should not have that much expectations. Do not forget that fact that on the previous halvings there wasn't this much people involved and it didn't required this much money to increase the price. Taking the price from 500 to 700 is not as difficult as taking it from $7k to $14k for example, that is a whole different level of money required.

Additionally, there are more people involved in bitcoin now and they all heard about the halving and maybe they already bought for it as well. So, maybe you are right, maybe it will increase but there is always a chance of it not doing what we expect it to do as well and we can't ignore that. Hopefully there will be miners who will refuse to sell for a loss and we will increase the price.

[Hamphser]

Not too fast because what you basically made is just based on pure speculation. No one can tell what's the future but someone can predict through speculation based on the recent events. Bitcoin hitting $14,000 before May is quite far from what i have expected and doubt it will ever touch before May.