Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin blasted through the $10K barrier once again this Sunday. But while the majority of analysts are hanging out the flags hailing the next Bitcoin bull run, prominent BTC trader and analyst Tone Vays stands by his bearish prediction. https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-defends-bearish-btc/

I don't think will fall so down, maybe it will go to 9k and after will go up again after halving.

Man, that would suck if bitcoin dropped to anywhere in the $4k range this year, either before or after the halving.  But despite this guy's prediction (which is crazy bearish in a market that seems to be bullish), I don't think it's going to happen. 

True, bitcoin did drop back below $10k in the past day but that was probably people taking their profits off the table, which is to be expected.  To drop 50% would take some seriously pessimistic views on bitcoin on the part of a lot of investors, and I don't see that becoming the case this year.  It certainly doesn't seem to be the mood of the market right now.

This seems to be one of those public prognostications which are made to keep someone's name in the news.  Whoever Tone Vays is, he might really believe bitcoin is going down to $4k, but if that's the case I think he's a bit delusional.

As always, Tone Vays is too bearish. He's a classic perma-bear.

He was bearish all the way up in 2017. Called the top at $7,500 and clung to it. This is another one of those times. I wonder how long he'll wait before finally flipping bullish. Probably not until the June 2019 high is broken.

I'm glad to see so many prominent bears in our midst. Tone Vays, Masterluc, Peter Brandt......all seem to be in denial about how bullish the market is.

After touching the price of $ 10k maybe a lot of people are selling and they want to profit from now so that the decline is happening right now, but it won't be a big bearish because in my opinion it's only a correction and most falls to $ 9500 then the song will grow above $ 11k.
I am sure at times like this many people will buy and analyze bitcoin movements.

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

Dropping back from over 10k recently is only a movement within a positive channel.    A sell like that is a positive but 4k would be to represent some failure.
   Tone Vays doesn't have to be incorrect but the scenario he is talking about is remote and in such a short period of time, I wonder why he would bother outlining something not likely to happen and people will just think he is wrong.    The only thing is if he believes the odds are very much higher then we consider and I dont get the information he is trying to convey, wheres this hidden rush of supply to unbalance the price down to 4k
  Not that interested in him being wrong or right absolutely but Im missing the point of why he'd say that especially.   4k is on the map, it can happen but why he stated this path when we likely just stay on the road and drive right past as theres no way its probable without some transformation or event.    Lots of news can and will be bigger then halvening, people are overstating it so thats as far as I can agree with him.

We've seen two bigger price crashes last year, one ~48%, another one ~38%, and no terrible event preceded them. Depending on how one looks at things, we still haven't left the bear market, although the outlook is much more positive now than two months ago.

@Pharmacist on the other hand, 4k means 2
5x more bitcoin for any income compared to what we'd get today...for another few months before the next "true" parabola.

I always thought this Vays guy (just a guess from how often his name crops up in a good way) was a bull but maybe he's like some of us. Long term bull, short term cynic. Better the pain now than later I say.

@The Pharmacist this guy is like the shepherd who kept shouting wolf is coming (when there was no wolf) just to be in the limelight, and he’s not done it for the first time as a quick google search about him will reveal that he’s given different bearish statements hoping to get it right. There’s in fact a tweet also which says that whenever he predicts something the opposite of that only happens, hence I’m sure his predictions won’t come true and we should not bother about him or his predictions.

Sources:

https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-defends-bearish-btc/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/tone-vays-bitcoin-must-hold-9k-for-2-3-days-to-secure-bull-market
https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-bitcoin-btc-wont-dip-to-usd-3000-again/
The wolf reference: http://www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/BoyCri.shtml

He’s probably got an agenda, maybe he wants to load up with a load of cheap coins or he’s managing a group of big players who desire a big price drop to load up with cheap coins pre halving.

It’s well known what happens to the price post halving so I can see why somebody or somebody working with rich people might desire one more big dip to buy cheap coins.

Nothing to see here, it’s an overly pessimistic prediction which probably won’t happen.

the bitcoin price dropped a lot and it didn't take long to see the usual:

Why a Crazy Profitable Bitcoin Whale is Warning of a Brutal Crash (https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/02/11/why-crazy-profitable-bitcoin-whale-warning-brutal-crash/)

pessimistic news is spreading rapidly. If the price goes up we will see very positive news.

Again, this is Tone Vays, if we have a perma bull like Tom Lee, then this is his counterpart. And just for the sake of argument, Bitcoin hits $4000, so what we are going to do? of course, we won't just dump and be emotional. I guess we will hear again, weak has will be shaken.

And we have to understand that this so called experts have their bad/good intentions behind. So I wouldn't be surprised to hear it from Tone Vays, perhaps he is a perma bull, but might be secretly buying in dips.

Wasn't he one of those 1k 'hyperwave' fans?

At least he has the courtesy to give a short term guess pulled out of his arse so we don't have to wait very long for it to go nowhere again.

A drop of the bitcoin price will happens likely after each rise, kind of correction but $4k! It is huge.
I expect something between $7-8k for a short time.

I could sort of understand a notion that bitcoin one day may become 4k, however predicting it to go under 10k and reach to 4k before the halving which is in may is a bit off from all other predictions and even possibilities. I am not the one to say bitcoin will always go up and will never go under 10k ever again, I realize there are possibilities where bitcoin could always fall, however thinking that bitcoin will never be too successful or will never go up from here until the may halving period is a bit wrong in my mind.

Maybe he is right and we are all wrong, we will never know until that day comes but I can wager money on the fact that bitcoin will be over 4k before halving and will stay that way for a year or so as well. After which I can understand maybe it may one day fall.

3 months before the halving, so I'd say around 2 more months before his prediction to be confirmed whether it is true or not? Still, really though, who would believe the guy? That's a 60% drop for a span of only 70+ days. Unless the market suddenly went haywire and went down literally everyday by huge portions, there's close to 0 chance that BTC would drop to $4k in a few months. This isn't like the bubble of 2017, no it isn't. There's no bubble here, there's no correction to be made here, there's only BTC growing and rising.

Honestly, predictions like this just look like they are screaming, asking for attention. It's pretty difficult to ignore though, since he is quite known by some and predictions like this are well, quite entertaining to see with whatever reasoning they make to defend their stand.

I don't see a bear sign anywhere as one of the most awaited triangles have been broken on both daily and weekly charts. This Tone vays who predicts $4k as the bottom needs to look some people's predictions who are deeply invested in this technology - Tom Lee gave a big statement that BTC will surpass Dow Jones and reach $40k before Dow does. I believe such statement itself counters these bears who are interested in making money shorting BTC. $8600 is the worst I'm seeing here and folks, don't worry about the bears, we're already in a big bull rally - this time it's gonna be extreme. There's one more fact that for BTC mining to remain profitable, we need at least $15k on the table in order to achieve better returns through mining.

I also think the situation will happen again and the bull run will not start until a few months after halving. I think that todays market optimism is too early. In the past, bull run always came a few months after halving, so whales still have a lot of time to make a big price dump. Of course, I hope that this will not happen, but in my opinion it is very likely and I fully agree with Tone Vays.

I don't think he might be correct because 4k is far behind low before halving right now we can clearly see a bullish trend and it's moving on, I cannot see any signs of bearish trend also I went through few articles and did some research on it where I saw it will maintain from 8k - 9k before halving. This is something unacceptable.

Nothing is unacceptable on a risky market like cryptocurrency. We have already seen more than 20% drops in one day on BTC price. Signals do not always have to appear for a flash crash to start. With such low capitalization, all you need is one whale to dump several thousand BTC to trigger panic sell. And in such a situation we can see the level of $4k even in less than two weeks.

The market will always tell us something else depending to whatever we want to see. Tone seem to want to see it drop. Some of the moving average and indicators I use are also seeing that it will drop but now sure when. Pre-halving is about 3 months from now. There are much to happen yet. If indicators shows the market already sinks while price stays more than 8k, then Toney could be wrong. 

^ That is a big prediction. I don't think the BTC will go that low this year. $4,000 is really low for BTC to get on that price. Not because the bitcoin dropped quickly below $10,000 doesn't mean it is the best thing to know that it will go down. Probably Tone Vays is just trying to put his name on the news and will confuse the people's opinion and analysis about the BITCOIN. I am not really sure where did he base his prediction but it really seemed to be delusional. They knew that they can influence the decision makings of the herd so they can take advantage of it. But I guess this time, they will not win against the herd.

There is only 3 months left. There will for sure be a halving pump.  I simply dont see the time needed for this to happen. It is to late. December had a chance, now unless some huge economic catastrophic event  will happen. Coronavirus was on the great path to it, but as it all seems Chinese are doing great in the fight against it.

We wont see that low price once again yet we've been approaching nearer on the halving event where hype is already gradually building up.

Its no surprise that there would be negative or bearish predictions in times like these.We cant say that he doesnt have a point because we know that
this market can go to prices which we do least expect or simply shocking so i cant blame these people.

Technicals isnt precise anytime but there were always hard believers when it comes to their own analysis,.

$4k is too low after coming this far.
Not that it's not possible for it to occur but I believe that price is way too low!. 8k seems more realistic than it and I hope his prediction won't occur.
Moreover, it seems like many are seriously buying Bitcoin lately because of the Bitcoin halving. We are not sure if there will be a price pump but the hype alone is stirring more Bitcoin buyers.

well it is all about size and current ongoing trend in the market.
the reversal hadn't happened yet in your examples. for example the 48% drop happened right after the downtrend stopped at $6k and things were stable but not reversed yet we hadn't seen any major rises by that time, only signs of "end of bear market" which we later found out were wrong.
but now, the trend has indeed reversed and price has been going up for most of last year and is currently up >200% from the bottom and things are positive specially with they halving hype. so a drop of that magnitude (60%) is not only a crash but also a trend reversal and they don't just happen for no reason.

however a drop of smaller magnitude like 10 to 20% or even worse case scenario: 30% is understandable.

How long has it been since we saw the price that low?
I don't really think that it would really happen now as we could see we are so far from it and the market manage to hold it high.
And the halving are pumping up the price so why would it fall down to $4K?
Are those any followers who are really waiting for his prediction to buy? I wonder how long would it takes for your order to be filled out or if it would ever be filled out.

but take a look at the histroy of the price  . before that there was a huge bull  , the price also fell down too much after it  .  im not wishing it will happen but im only comparing or basing on the past . for me  i prefer if bitcoin will only rise and will only drop a few if ever people sells some  because that will be acceptable by me and other people that join this business . but there are those peeps that wants bitcoin to go down hard  , and i feel sad when i see them praying and hoping for it  ;(  .

everyone can make their own prediction and specially these people that called tobe "Prominent' or "experts"/they are the one who is bringing shakes in market.because they don't want to support each others instead they all wanted to have their Names marked.so Predicting different from each other is what they do if ever the prediction comes Closer if they dont get exactly then it will be credited to their reputation right?but if they made mistakes totally then who cares?there is nothing to lose after all?
we came from 6k$ last Quarter of 2019 so there is nothing wrong to come back that level but $4k?lol that must be a Joke.

Welp, I wouldn't put too much weight into what anyone has to say to be honest. Tone Vays is a respectable guy to me from what I've experienced in terms of his work and how he strives to introduce newcomers in the space to bitcoin without any BS... But to attempt and predict the prices of a market simply ruled by demand and nothing else, is just nuts. Crypto prices have low to zero correlation with real world events and there's no notable seasonality with halving even. Most would argue that it can be a force to lead prices up, and this sentiment could be having an impact on the market, but for a bearish prediction also? I just find it too unlikely that any prediction would be accurate, especially this one.

Let Tone blow up on shorting then. ::) But really, it might be in a trader's interest to pretend they're putting out a prediction while they're trading the opposite. It's one of the oldest tricks in the book.

If you check previous articles about Tone Vays and his predictions, you will realize that he had some right ones and some wrong ones. Nobody in the world could be 100% right all the time without ever being wrong (at least that is what I think) but at the same time Tone Vays is a liked person with a good track record so I would give him benefit of the doubt.

Maybe he saw something that we are not seeing right now. I personally said the same thing about the halving for example, the current new machines are making difficulty go higher but thanks to them being bigger in hashes the people who will have the new machines will probably make a profit even if the halving happens and drops in half for mined coins. So the idea that "price has to double to cover the difference" is just wrong if you ask me.

Absolutely. As much as I disagree with him, Tone Vays brings two things to the table. He challenges our bullish biases and forces us to prepare mentally for alternative scenarios.

And for those saying "everyone is bullish" he also serves as proof that not everyone thinks BTC is headed to the moon.

Halving that happens very soon will cause a crisis for many miners. It is likely that the price of bitcoin will fall because of this. Given the traditional huge volatility, a level of 4,000 does not look so unrealistic.
If you remember the beginning of 2019, then many people did not believe in growth, and then it happened. In the opposite direction, this also works.

I am sure he is shilling for a bearish trend so that he can invest when the market goes down other than that there is no way you can predict that the market would go the other way, all these analyst and predictors want to create an image to the investors so that they will dump when they see a market correction expecting a huge correction and to reach $4k the market needs to shed $6 k from the current valuation which is a huge difference which i do not see coming.

Vays has a bit more sense then to think he would profit from disinformation.  He already has the great privilege of being paid to give lectures are conferences and so on, thats by calling ongoing trends in crypto that are realistic.   He seems to think there is some vast possibility of a bearish outcome to any conflict in price, I think it could only occur from an event.   I did recently hear of USA regulations incoming for crypto that could lead to selling perhaps, thats the only hint I thought could lead to a 4k scenario.

It is absolutely ridiculous to me to see people behaving like sheep heading in the direction of the herd leader, even if he led them into the abyss. Why is it important what Tone Vays thinks? Well he makes money because he sells his opinions, and everyone who invests their money listening to people like him end up with short sleeves sooner or later.

I have nothing against some Tone Vays, to me he personally has no meaning, he is just another in a series of so-called experts who to be honest know nothing more than some people here on the forum.

Is this same man who predict $7500 top back in 2017? Personally, I would never open my mouth to the topic of Bitcoin again if I had been so wrong in the past, of course I am speaking from the position of someone who is influential in the crypto community. So if in next 3 months price stay above $10k, should we mark Tone as bad speculator, considering 2017 as well?

One thing that comes to my mind is that Tone Vays see the opportunity to get more attention.  While everyone is going north, the one that goes south will have all the attention, and that's what happening now.  This is probably intentional, I mean, he intentionally goes bearish with absurd very low prediction to get people's attention and I guess he is very successful in it because right now, we are talking about his statement and we tend to agree or disagree with it.

---

Personally, I do not mind what these so-called experts says about the Bitcoin market trend,  without any strong proof (TA or FA) they are just blabbing non-sense.

Nothing interesting in this article! Except that Tone Vays stands by his prediction, there are no other arguments about why he believes that Bitcoin can drop to 4k. It would be a huge drop, for more than 50%, and just before the halving when we expect hype? To me this drop sounds impossible, I think price will drop but to 8k, or around that. Only thing that is good in this article is one sentence:
"Tone Vays responded that there were still two months to go and that “anything can happen.”
We all know that anything can happen in crypto market and that anything can happen in short period of time. For me dropping under 8k is almost impossible, very low chances that to happen, but in the end who knows, we will who is right in next couple months.

I doubt that.
Bottom is like $6k for now.
We may not be seeing it less than that.

We are in $10k now for crying out loud. I know BTC is volatile but as we have seen it didn't really surge in price with just jumps.
It is slow which just means one thing for me. More people are coming in.

He is full of pride huh. Up until now, he is still holding on that bearish prediction or maybe he can't accept that his prediction is wrong and goes the other way. Btc falling to $4k this year is very unlikely to happen. The price seems doing fine and reaching a price point every month. More likely, the price will perform better after halving simply because history repeat itself especially if we pass $15k, by that time it's really safe to say that new ATH will be set sooner.

Every people are entitled with their own opinions about what would be the standing of Bitcoin in the future. We could not say that someone is right because, no one could really tell what would happen in the future, what we all could do is to try and make our best guess and learn from others opinion also. But for me, the possibility that Bitcoin would go into the dump is little while it could happen but not that massive. As the current situation dictates, the value of Bitcoin falls back to the $9k-$10k range. But, I believe it is only one last correction before the Bull run happens.

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

No we have to say 4000 by any account is not normal, not likely to happen and would have to be caused by something unexplained currently and beyond any normal set of expectations.    To put it simply, the 4k price target ignores all kinds of support and indicators as to price direction long term.    Volatility is possible both in BTC and Dollar or any other currency of course but this is very high on richter scale and would relate to extreme events most likely.

So 4000 is below the 200 week moving average, that was near to the bottom of early 2019 and to cross it now would be surprising after we got such a high peak following that bottom.   The last time we broke such a measure was late 2015, more then 4 years ago and alot of things have changed since there.
    Tone is stating something less then 5% possible as if it were just another number on a dart board, make your prediction but he better lay out an entire thesis not casually state such an extreme otherwise it makes little sense at present.   He can give any prediction but to not recognize the gravity of his own words could easily lose him credibility.

I think that it will be up to miners to decide what happens. If they find the costs of upgrading equipment too high and risky, they can start selling BTC accumulated so far. I'm sure at least a few mines have collected enough BTC to call them whales. If even one of them decides to sell everything and close the business, it can easily fall by 50%.
At the moment, there is an interesting situation, because we see declines in the market and large purchase offers disappear. I think we are in a time of danger of a very large drop. By tomorrow the price almost for sure will fall, we just don't known how much will fall and whether it will cause a flash crash.. I'm affraid that it is very possible, that till tomorrow we will see at least -15%

Hmm ... are you really sure about that? Maybe you should bet on the exchange with a large multiplier for this drop? If you are really right, you can make good money on this. And if the price really goes to 4,000, then you can ten times your capital. As for me, I'm waiting for a signal to make a short on ETH.

I don't play against the price. I just invest, always in the long term, unless that are tokens or some little-known alts, then I play for events or pumps.
The fact that I wrote that the price will fall till tomorrow is my impression. It seems to me that for several days there has been a lack of positive information and there is less positive sentiments on the market. I could be wrong, however, the drops are still more likely for me and i think about quite big proce drops, thats why I think Vays may be right.

Anything is possible but that doesn't mean we can expect Bitcoin at 4K USD! I don't think it will happen before or after the halving! But I already set my mind that very soon Bitcoin price will come to 8K USD very soon! Tone Vays prediction is not acceptable in any way, but yet we should be ready and focus on the market to pick the best time.

If we actually somehow get a good correction before the halving that will make things a lot better for rich people. If the poor people keep selling all the time until the price reaches 4k, who do you think will buy all of those coins from all those low levels? It will be whales with money who could cover all that much sale and that will result with them getting cheap bitcoin right before the halving.

After halving happens we will see the price slowly increase, I doubt it would go back up to like 15k in a day so it will be slow but eventually all those whales that got cheap bitcoin will want to see it go up really fast. That is why I think we should try to not sell these days, if you see price going down suddenly and looks like its going to 4k, stop and do not sell, wait for it to go back up.

Well, one characteristic of a bull market is that the price always have corrections in the weekends, and recovers in the mondays.

Today is monday and the price didn't recovered from the weekend dump. So we are not yet in a bull market. CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

I think $4k is a bit too much, though. The range between $5k and $7k seems more likely, in case a massive dump happens. Remember its a extremely manipulated market, with absolutely no protection for small traders, so anything can happen.

There is nothing regular guiding us like that in a bull market, very generally the lows will be higher each point and the highs also will keep rising.  Thats the bullish trend, but there is no particular day for the market to go up or down and its like a snake that will double back and try and bite you, none the less bull markets go up.    People always want to call out 10,000 or any flat number or a day it must rise or this year, the halvening must mean it rises but I'd advise against believing any of that.   Certainty is not available, the risk is paired with the pay off when it rises and if people expect too much the market seems to want to knock them out of the holding make people give up and then goes up.    On that count, the strange way markets can be thats only way how I could get Tone Vays is right and sensible.


The poor people dont have capital and unfortunately that matters, this is just typical of markets and people call it whales forcing prices but its the free market itself that twists about till weak hands leave.   BTC has been doing this for years, it gets easier to be more comfortable when its not the first time seeing it but the volatility is beyond any other market.

Totally arbitrary. The "weekend dump" and "new money Monday" aren't reliable events. If they ever were, traders have priced them in by now.


Good. The market has just shaken out lots of marginal longs. Now there is lots of latent demand to drive us back into "greed" again. Not to mention that Bitfinex shorts have tripled over the last month = more fuel for upside.

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.


You mean that it is time for the bulls' savage attack on bears to take the revenge they had been looking for since last month? Bears didn't get stopped out, means they have set their orders higher to shoot the price down if I'm not wrong?

I have about the same approach to investing. But lately, too many events that can be said obviously lead the price in some direction, so the temptation to play is very great. Just in case, I registered on bitmex and am waiting for a convenient signal to enter the market.

$8600 seems fair given the fact that on the weekly the price tends to bounce off the 21EMA, which conveniently speaking, is around that level.

I however think that altcoins are on the brink of exploding, which might help Bitcoin to regain some bullish momentum too in the very short term. Ethereum dips are bought up like crazy, even much more aggressively so than Bitcoin's dips. I'll keep monitoring the price of Ethereum and wait for a long entery point. Given its fundamental strength, it might pay off handsomely.

Not sure what you mean exactly, but this is the general idea:

https://i.imgur.com/OCQJvbl.png

4-hour bullish divergence, OBV recovery, and break of that local downtrend line all suggest the bottom could be in. Now we need a confirmed higher low.

How this might fit into the bigger picture:

https://i.imgur.com/xIG3PuB.png

This is a realistic price for correction and in a worst situation it might go down to $7200 , even during the last rally i do not remember having a huge correction before the big rally, we had periodic correction with each resistance and usually pumps above and i am not expecting the same rally like we had last time but i am not expecting the market to have a huge correction either.

Just like exstasie determined in his 1D chart, I'm waiting for the last leg (6th leg if you can clearly see in the charts) before an explosive rally takes place towards $25k as the Golden Cross indicates. Though, for that to happen, I'm still thinking that BTC needs to come down to get a new support for that leg and a newer higher low which will establish a pattern that will clear all our doubts and show some optimism in the markets.

I would say charts are great examples of what should happen but also they could never predict the future in a unpredictable market which means that anything could happen instead what should happen and that is why I think if we were to drop that much, we can't go back up that fast since the psychology of human mind doesn't allow it to think that much volatility that quickly.

If we went up 25%+ in the recent months and then drop 25% in the next week, we can't simply process another 50% increase following that, we have never seen anything that moves so radically before and that is exactly why we wouldn't be able to do anything about this if it were to happen and would not follow the charts and what we should do and do something wrong which could make the chart wrong.

I don't really follow Tone because he used to be extremely bearish last year, calling for sub 3k and possible 1k Bitcoin, but all that happened was 3.3k. When we broke through 10k for the first time last year he was still bearish and still calling for sub 3k Bitcoin, but we did not even go below 6k, so he was wrong about the lows twice in one year. Now he's bearish again, what a surprise  ::)

I believe that we won't go below 6k this year, but anything is possible if some countries decide to impose bans or USDt is proven to be a scam with no backing. Without major events there's maybe 1% chance of 4k before halving.

Graphs and technical analysis are very good at explaining the events that have already occurred. For everything else (forecasting) they are not suitable. I see many serious analysts and ordinary forum participants who draw graphs, but the result of their drawing is a forecast with a probability of 50%, i.e. completely useless.

i just want to say something that some people may have forgotten already that relates to this topic. not so long ago lots of people were also standing by their $1000 predictions claiming that price should fall down that much even when it was rising every month setting a new record. it was 2018 and 2019 by the way...

In a recent episode of On The Record, Vays spoke with Murad Mahmudov on all things crypto, revealing that he’s 85% certain that Bitcoin has not yet made a true bottom.
In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000.
https://sludgefeed.com/tone-vayes-sets-1800-for-bitcoin-bottom/

I have only one thing to say about his prediction: it's hyperbearish and completely wrong.

He doesnt state enough reasoning to believe BTC has an excess of sellers like that, this is the main problem with stating something way outside the consensus.    Its much harder to convince people of something not in the field of view and he has to supply alot of information to go alongside or its just a shot in the dark, he hasn't done that so its hard to grasp what is driving his idea of much lower.
    I'd take his estimate far more seriously to the downside risk if he could also explain the upside of 13k that occurred last summer, if he can come up with a coherent explanation for that then I'll start to consider he is reasoned on multiple possibilities not just his own.

He could be right, bitcoin could dump and it's possible.
In the past few days, bitcoin struggle to stay at $10,000, it stays for one day I guess but today it's dump again.
Therefore, I believe bitcoin is bearish in the past few days and as majority are expecting a pump, they might have not seen that it's a trap.

Again, these are just a possibilities, and everyone of us has our opinion, and this guy too, so we should just be ready of what would take place.
As for me, I will remain bullish but I will consider the bearish scenario.

One year ago the price was skyrocketing and it all seemed so bullish, analysts were saying at least 20k by the end of the year, and then suddenly it all went down and the market turned bearish for the rest of the year. There's no guarantee that what we are heaving now is the "true" bull market that will repeat the pattern of 2017. In Bitcoin nothing is ever off the table, since it's so volatile and mainly driven by speculation.

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

I saw the news on TV. This could last for months, I don't think its the reason because if so the downtrend will also last for a period of time which means Toney Vays speculation might actually materialize.

The Chinese asking their men to hand the banknotes to their banks may be the start of digital currency transition of China which they were trying to developed.

1.) Do you mean the economic problems that may arise because of this? But after all, most believe that bitcoin is a protective asset, so if the economy continues to fall, bitcoin will grow, right?

2.) Unfortunately, this will not be relevant to cryptocurrencies. Rather, such actions are similar to digital totalitarianism.

They already have digital cash and contactless payments and its all FIAT.   The reason for crypto wont be because they want to move balances digitally because thats been possible and in majority for many years.   It was possible to remove cash without crypto, the vital part is decentralisation and thats the real jump between the possible and what is now a very fragile centralised system where economies bend to politics more then capitalism.
   China is of course not really about capitalism or anything that represents an individual.    

comparing this bull market which is just getting started with 2017 bull market ($20k) which was the end of a 3 year long bull market and at the top of the big bubble is unfair. by the time price reached the previous ATH at $20k we were up ~13,166% from the bottom in that cycle. right now at the current price we only had a little less than a year of bull run and price has gone up only 203%  from the bottom of this cycle.

a better comparison of how wrong some people are is comparing those who call for $4k right now with those who were calling for $100k back in 2017 since both are equally wrong because they are caught up in a trend that is already over, the former in the finished bear trend and the later in the finished bull trend.

I understand that digital fiat has long been used, but digital fiat is under the direct control of banks (in the case of China, it is controlled by the government). If necessary, your balance will be turned into zero. Therefore, crypto has undeniable advantages in this sense, and in case of crisis, they become more in demand.

You are so right here. Not long ago even last few months I could remember people saying the 12.8k thing was the final dead cat bounce, and now we were heading back towards 3.5k and even few hundred.

I mean,,, people from BSV were believing really bad crap so you know, this keeps going on and on,,,

I can only say that his claims/speculations are getting less chance as there is less than 3 months left to halving and the price is very close to $10k. As much as this situation may seem out of the ordinary, when it comes to something as volatile as BTC, we should be prepared for every possible scenario.

However, I will admit that I respect people who do not deviate so easily from their beliefs, even if it is fairly unrealistic to most people. The only logic that can justify this thinking is that someone would make a big dump before halving to bring down the price and buy even more BTC at the lowest price possible. Now we have to wonder how much BTC needs to be sold instantly to bring the price down to $4,000?

Manipulation like that is hopefully not easy to pull off and it does more damage then any good long term because you are proving BTC to be immature and unreliable.   It shouldnt be done by anyone who is a long term holder, it would be like setting yourself on fire to stay warm.   The whole point of BTC and the surprise to the world is that is its not too easy to derail,  every other attempt at this online cash failed because its a natural order that economies destroy themselves or at least swing out of control  (greed is not the exception its the rule).   I'm sure theres a set rule of economics that references self destructive tenancies,  I'll look for it.     Every system is flawed thats a given, that BTC carries on is quite amazing still.


As soon as people believe that I know we're at the tail end of whatever move, up or down.   Most people dont think that though, this move now is just profit taking and its really moving slowly down I think which is why its so hard to take this low estimate with any serious regard.   When price goes sideways as I think it might for a couple days I reckon it encourages more buyers and we can rise to 10k or so but I dont think that ends the selling, we are still capped for now and I dont think we shake that off till we snap dive and snap back at 8k maybe.

Everyone is right and everyone is wrong when it comes to what bitcoin can do. You are right with what you are saying but you are wrong by saying the other thing can't happen. Bitcoin could go to $4k, that is a possibility, it moved from $20k to $3k in matter of less than a year, so the ability of bitcoin going down is well known and has been a thing for years and it has happened before as well (remember 1400 peak times). However, bitcoin also started the year 2017 with just 700 dollars and peaked at $20k as well.

If you want another example just 2019 was a year started with $3.5k or so and peaked at $14k and ended with $7k so it was definitely still a good year. Long story short when you talk about bitcoin price, $20k is as possible as $4k and $4k is as possible as $20k, both of them are quite possible for us.

Maybe it won't fall down that much also there's no assurance that before the occurence of halving the price will fall. If there will be no price increase before halving, I think it would stay in the $9,000 mark .
I do not get the relation of this to the topic which is about the price before halving. You mean this would be the reason for the price decrease?
This is the bottomline, lack of assurance. People are making absurd expectations due to the anticipated halving but the fact is, things could be different than before. We cannot be certain that the market price will be as high or even higher due to such event. We should always look for other possibility in order to be safe from regrets.

Looks like he is wrong as it looks like BTC is not going to that low level again.

For a week already, bitcoin still stays over $9000 and that is a good indication that it could possibly pump big time going straight up to $11,000.

Every experts actually has their own prediction, but evaluate yourself, if you are bullish, you don't believe on this expert, follow other predictions that bitcoin will rise and those who believe that this year will be a good year for bitcoin as we will have a new ATH.

Do you think that it is worth discussing only about price changes that are directly caused by halving?
Yes, I believe that this may be the reason for the price drop. But this is one of the factors, other factors will probably positively affect the price. Therefore, we should discuss the cumulative effect, and not focus on any one factor.

The title of this thread should be changed to Tone Vays, is he only a Tone or a genius? hehehehe. I am reading the replies and I am laughing loudly. It might be the quarantine hehe.

In any case, I also had a similar comment on a different thread like everyone. It appears that we are the joke.

And he got it correct,maybe he knew already the effect of this Virus from last year thats why he stays BEarish even when market shows bullishness from the start of this year.and almost perfect catch because this is pre-halving and the expectations should be Pumping.
how i wish i did read this article before so i am ready and maybe Pull out my Holding early march and buy back 2 weeks after.

Well, 4k did actually happened but not because of anything Tone was waiting on, it was corona virus that made it 4k, we can't say that he was "right" this way, did he got it right that we hit it before that date? Yes.

But, he got lucky (well the world is unlucky right now) because something MAJOR happened and that's it, it wasn't some technical analyst type of stuff, it wasn't all that important, I still think that we could potentially go to 10k like we did a month ago, but if suddenly there is a whale coming in buying 10 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, that will not make me right, that would make me just lucky. What would have made him right is if there was nothing major going on in bitcoin world and he still said it and we still went down, no corona no nothing, then he would have been right.

How many predictions does he make on an average month? Make enough predictions, eventually one of them will turn out right, this time a black swan helped him out.

@malevolent. However, Toner Vays might have begun his secret investigation on the coronavirus before he made his prediction. I speculate that he might have friends from the Chinese trading and mining community that give him news and updates.

Nah I doubt it, he made the call from various measures he weighs and considers in price movement.   It might be unfamiliar to us but I never thought he was disingenuous in his opinions just couldn't see how it could play out.  
    I've often made a price target without knowing how it would occur, thats a normal concept and the news pares with price action and the two compliment each other blindly almost.

Unlikely, he has been predicting $4K since May 2019 when price reached $5K. He expected the pull back from there that never occurred, instead price rallied to $14K. It's his old TA he's held onto since the mini bull run / dead cat bounce. He never suggested price would drop to $4K because of the virus, instead he was expecting $5K levels at that point.

Perhaps he did not guess the foundation, but he guessed the target levels, you must agree that this is a great success. Especially when you consider that his forecast was contrary to the trend.
What can you say about those forecasts (there were an overwhelming majority of them) that claimed that during the crisis, bitcoin will grow because it is a protective asset?

I don't think this is so because I also don't believe someone saw this kind of harsh effect coming on the lives of people. His prediction was just accidentally on his bear and nothing to prove to me that anyone saw the covid-19 effect being as devastating as this we are feeling.

However, did he predict what was about to occur by using technical analysis? This can be an argument because the changes on the price of bitcoin is a representation of the psychology of the market herd.

We all know that technical analysis can work in markets with very high capitalization. The cryptocurrency market has very low capitalization and therefore very large price fluctuations, which means that technical analysis does not work here.
Such predictions are mainly based on analyzing upcoming events and observing moods.
Someone will always be able to predict the price, but I have not yet seen it succeed in the same person twice in a row.

Its billions big, thats big enough and its a natural market traded people so will display similar movements and patterns like many markets traded by people because we often jump on prices going higher and flee a falling price and the constant live speculation is similar too.    Perfectly tradable and I've seen main market traders with 30 years experience step into trading BTC but back out when they felt it was getting too erratic again.   Nothing is stopping TA working here, I think seasonal commodities could be a lot harder to get right when its reliant on hard data but BTC mostly reacts to dollar and global currency flow I think.
   I almost always trade BTC right alongside every other market price you might hear on the business news like oil or shares whatever, same account same listings.   When BTC went into futures listings it opened the door to a whole avenue of speculators.   I'm lucky I live somewhere they dont tax me on guessing prices because its classified as betting for me.

I'm fine with skeptical views stated, perfectly valid and part of the market perspective we have with millions of people involved.   Volatility and erratic prices can also mean larger moves and bigger profits possible, I agree it is harder to be involved with confidence when we can move 10% very easily but look at the main indexes and nothing is perfectly safe.

What is the connection, who said that and is there proof that technical analysis does not work on bitcoin? Also, if that was true then where did Tone Vay's prediction of $4k come from?