Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction

[KTChampions]

I would say charts are great examples of what should happen but also they could never predict the future in a unpredictable market which means that anything could happen instead what should happen and that is why I think if we were to drop that much, we can't go back up that fast since the psychology of human mind doesn't allow it to think that much volatility that quickly.
~

Graphs and technical analysis are very good at explaining the events that have already occurred. For everything else (forecasting) they are not suitable. I see many serious analysts and ordinary forum participants who draw graphs, but the result of their drawing is a forecast with a probability of 50%, i.e. completely useless.

[BrewMaster]

i just want to say something that some people may have forgotten already that relates to this topic. not so long ago lots of people were also standing by their $1000 predictions claiming that price should fall down that much even when it was rising every month setting a new record. it was 2018 and 2019 by the way...

[pixie85]

i just want to say something that some people may have forgotten already that relates to this topic. not so long ago lots of people were also standing by their $1000 predictions claiming that price should fall down that much even when it was rising every month setting a new record. it was 2018 and 2019 by the way...

In a recent episode of On The Record, Vays spoke with Murad Mahmudov on all things crypto, revealing that he’s 85% certain that Bitcoin has not yet made a true bottom.
In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000.
https://sludgefeed.com/tone-vayes-sets-1800-for-bitcoin-bottom/

I have only one thing to say about his prediction: it's hyperbearish and completely wrong.

[STT]

He doesnt state enough reasoning to believe BTC has an excess of sellers like that, this is the main problem with stating something way outside the consensus.    Its much harder to convince people of something not in the field of view and he has to supply alot of information to go alongside or its just a shot in the dark, he hasn't done that so its hard to grasp what is driving his idea of much lower.
    I'd take his estimate far more seriously to the downside risk if he could also explain the upside of 13k that occurred last summer, if he can come up with a coherent explanation for that then I'll start to consider he is reasoned on multiple possibilities not just his own.

[Maslate]

He could be right, bitcoin could dump and it's possible.
In the past few days, bitcoin struggle to stay at $10,000, it stays for one day I guess but today it's dump again.
Therefore, I believe bitcoin is bearish in the past few days and as majority are expecting a pump, they might have not seen that it's a trap.

Again, these are just a possibilities, and everyone of us has our opinion, and this guy too, so we should just be ready of what would take place.
As for me, I will remain bullish but I will consider the bearish scenario.

[hatshepsut93]

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

One year ago the price was skyrocketing and it all seemed so bullish, analysts were saying at least 20k by the end of the year, and then suddenly it all went down and the market turned bearish for the rest of the year. There's no guarantee that what we are heaving now is the "true" bull market that will repeat the pattern of 2017. In Bitcoin nothing is ever off the table, since it's so volatile and mainly driven by speculation.

[KTChampions]

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

[bittraffic]

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

I saw the news on TV. This could last for months, I don't think its the reason because if so the downtrend will also last for a period of time which means Toney Vays speculation might actually materialize.

The Chinese asking their men to hand the banknotes to their banks may be the start of digital currency transition of China which they were trying to developed.

[KTChampions]

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

I saw the news on TV. This could last for months, I don't think its the reason because if so the downtrend will also last for a period of time which means Toney Vays speculation might actually materialize. [1]

The Chinese asking their men to hand the banknotes to their banks may be the start of digital currency transition of China which they were trying to developed. [2]

1.) Do you mean the economic problems that may arise because of this? But after all, most believe that bitcoin is a protective asset, so if the economy continues to fall, bitcoin will grow, right?

2.) Unfortunately, this will not be relevant to cryptocurrencies. Rather, such actions are similar to digital totalitarianism.

[STT]

one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.

They already have digital cash and contactless payments and its all FIAT.   The reason for crypto wont be because they want to move balances digitally because thats been possible and in majority for many years.   It was possible to remove cash without crypto, the vital part is decentralisation and thats the real jump between the possible and what is now a very fragile centralised system where economies bend to politics more then capitalism.
   China is of course not really about capitalism or anything that represents an individual.    

[pooya87]

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

One year ago the price was skyrocketing and it all seemed so bullish, analysts were saying at least 20k by the end of the year, and then suddenly it all went down and the market turned bearish for the rest of the year. There's no guarantee that what we are heaving now is the "true" bull market that will repeat the pattern of 2017. In Bitcoin nothing is ever off the table, since it's so volatile and mainly driven by speculation.

comparing this bull market which is just getting started with 2017 bull market ($20k) which was the end of a 3 year long bull market and at the top of the big bubble is unfair. by the time price reached the previous ATH at $20k we were up ~13,166% from the bottom in that cycle. right now at the current price we only had a little less than a year of bull run and price has gone up only 203%  from the bottom of this cycle.

a better comparison of how wrong some people are is comparing those who call for $4k right now with those who were calling for $100k back in 2017 since both are equally wrong because they are caught up in a trend that is already over, the former in the finished bear trend and the later in the finished bull trend.

[KTChampions]

one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.

They already have digital cash and contactless payments and its all FIAT.   The reason for crypto wont be because they want to move balances digitally because thats been possible and in majority for many years.   It was possible to remove cash without crypto, the vital part is decentralisation and thats the real jump between the possible and what is now a very fragile centralised system where economies bend to politics more then capitalism.
   China is of course not really about capitalism or anything that represents an individual.    

I understand that digital fiat has long been used, but digital fiat is under the direct control of banks (in the case of China, it is controlled by the government). If necessary, your balance will be turned into zero. Therefore, crypto has undeniable advantages in this sense, and in case of crisis, they become more in demand.

[leea-1334]

i just want to say something that some people may have forgotten already that relates to this topic. not so long ago lots of people were also standing by their $1000 predictions claiming that price should fall down that much even when it was rising every month setting a new record. it was 2018 and 2019 by the way...

You are so right here. Not long ago even last few months I could remember people saying the 12.8k thing was the final dead cat bounce, and now we were heading back towards 3.5k and even few hundred.

I mean,,, people from BSV were believing really bad crap so you know, this keeps going on and on,,,

[Lucius]

I have only one thing to say about his prediction: it's hyperbearish and completely wrong.

I can only say that his claims/speculations are getting less chance as there is less than 3 months left to halving and the price is very close to $10k. As much as this situation may seem out of the ordinary, when it comes to something as volatile as BTC, we should be prepared for every possible scenario.

However, I will admit that I respect people who do not deviate so easily from their beliefs, even if it is fairly unrealistic to most people. The only logic that can justify this thinking is that someone would make a big dump before halving to bring down the price and buy even more BTC at the lowest price possible. Now we have to wonder how much BTC needs to be sold instantly to bring the price down to $4,000?

[STT]

Manipulation like that is hopefully not easy to pull off and it does more damage then any good long term because you are proving BTC to be immature and unreliable.   It shouldnt be done by anyone who is a long term holder, it would be like setting yourself on fire to stay warm.   The whole point of BTC and the surprise to the world is that is its not too easy to derail,  every other attempt at this online cash failed because its a natural order that economies destroy themselves or at least swing out of control  (greed is not the exception its the rule).   I'm sure theres a set rule of economics that references self destructive tenancies,  I'll look for it.     Every system is flawed thats a given, that BTC carries on is quite amazing still.

and now we were heading back towards 3.5k and even few hundred.

As soon as people believe that I know we're at the tail end of whatever move, up or down.   Most people dont think that though, this move now is just profit taking and its really moving slowly down I think which is why its so hard to take this low estimate with any serious regard.   When price goes sideways as I think it might for a couple days I reckon it encourages more buyers and we can rise to 10k or so but I dont think that ends the selling, we are still capped for now and I dont think we shake that off till we snap dive and snap back at 8k maybe.

[bitgolden]

Everyone is right and everyone is wrong when it comes to what bitcoin can do. You are right with what you are saying but you are wrong by saying the other thing can't happen. Bitcoin could go to $4k, that is a possibility, it moved from $20k to $3k in matter of less than a year, so the ability of bitcoin going down is well known and has been a thing for years and it has happened before as well (remember 1400 peak times). However, bitcoin also started the year 2017 with just 700 dollars and peaked at $20k as well.

If you want another example just 2019 was a year started with $3.5k or so and peaked at $14k and ended with $7k so it was definitely still a good year. Long story short when you talk about bitcoin price, $20k is as possible as $4k and $4k is as possible as $20k, both of them are quite possible for us.

[Latviand]

Maybe it won't fall down that much also there's no assurance that before the occurence of halving the price will fall. If there will be no price increase before halving, I think it would stay in the $9,000 mark .

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

I do not get the relation of this to the topic which is about the price before halving. You mean this would be the reason for the price decrease?

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

One year ago the price was skyrocketing and it all seemed so bullish, analysts were saying at least 20k by the end of the year, and then suddenly it all went down and the market turned bearish for the rest of the year. There's no guarantee that what we are heaving now is the "true" bull market that will repeat the pattern of 2017. In Bitcoin nothing is ever off the table, since it's so volatile and mainly driven by speculation.

This is the bottomline, lack of assurance. People are making absurd expectations due to the anticipated halving but the fact is, things could be different than before. We cannot be certain that the market price will be as high or even higher due to such event. We should always look for other possibility in order to be safe from regrets.

[Russlenat]

Looks like he is wrong as it looks like BTC is not going to that low level again.

For a week already, bitcoin still stays over $9000 and that is a good indication that it could possibly pump big time going straight up to $11,000.

Every experts actually has their own prediction, but evaluate yourself, if you are bullish, you don't believe on this expert, follow other predictions that bitcoin will rise and those who believe that this year will be a good year for bitcoin as we will have a new ATH.

[KTChampions]

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

I do not get the relation of this to the topic which is about the price before halving. You mean this would be the reason for the price decrease?

Do you think that it is worth discussing only about price changes that are directly caused by halving?
Yes, I believe that this may be the reason for the price drop. But this is one of the factors, other factors will probably positively affect the price. Therefore, we should discuss the cumulative effect, and not focus on any one factor.

[bbc.reporter]

The title of this thread should be changed to Tone Vays, is he only a Tone or a genius? hehehehe. I am reading the replies and I am laughing loudly. It might be the quarantine hehe.

In any case, I also had a similar comment on a different thread like everyone. It appears that we are the joke.