Bitcoin Forum

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

It's a prediction game, not a lottery game. also, you'll have to hide the information about how many people have bought the ticket in order to hide the total money that has been gathered because if you don't people can easily estimate how much money is on the pot. hiding information on a game like this is a no-no for most gamblers and we will never know you are going to fix the game since the winner won't be random and you have all the information that is needed to win.

This is really a bad idea I think because for people who will predict at the beginning will never be a winner. Anyone can manipulate anyone's prediction.
It's better to choose winner by the prediction of sum digit of a future hash. That can never be manipulated.

Thanks for your comment. You are right about that the system can be manipulated and it is difficult to trust. One variation to solve this is to keep the 1 week period, but independently for each ticket, so then each player tries to predict how much is the jackpot after 1 week. Example: one player buys 1 ticket for 0.001 BTC on day 11-02-2020 12:00 hours and predicts a pot of 0.150 BTC for the day 11-09-2020 12:00 hours, then other players buy they tickets, each one with a different timestamp. On the day 11-09-2020 12:00 hours, the systems check if he prediction is true or not. In this type of game the prediction must be exactly the pot amount o we can introduce a margin of error of let's say 5%. With this system, the operator cannot manipulate the result and all players have the same chance to win because the time period is the same.

Check my last comment, where I talk about the option that all players have the same time period for predictions.

What if more than 1 player chooses the same value of the total pot? There is around 100% probability the last person will choose the very rounding digit even paying higher and buy more tickets to win the lottery.

Yes, that's a good point. That's why I am thinking that each ticket runs independently and all predictions have 1 week time period. So you are always predicting how much the pot will be after 1 week. In that week's time period, the pot could increase because new tickets or could decrease because somebody hits the jackpot.

Pot size increase is understandable but decrease? You mean that someone who loses the lottery once during a week, his prediction still remains in the system for 1 more week or am I missing something here? I am confused how can it be decreased and the fact that the last timers will win is based on how users watch predictors carefully and get an estimate to lock a possible winning number, which makes lower predictions void of having any possibility to win at all.

The issues with this specific suggestion have been brought up already. People can guess the same number, trust issues, manipulations... For instance, op, as for your option of a 1-week period, say a person predicts that the pot will be something big like 0.5 BTC, and then close to the end of weekly period bets as many times as necessary to make this prediction true. Oh, and what does not allow you, the creator to fill in the pot in a way that everyone's predictions are wrong but the one made by you/your friend is the winning one?
I really like the idea of a skill-based 'lottery', but it should be something other than predicting the pot, something with fewer issues.

This doesn't look like a good idea to me. Too much possibilities for manipulation and low transparency, that is not promising and doesn't make players confident about it. It's not clear how would you deal with same predictions and what results would that make.
Also it doesn't matter that is based on predictions, it's still a lottery.

The problem with such models is that players with small banckrolls will not be incentivized to join as their chances of winning are tiny.
Also, knowing that game results can be easily manipulated by the house or big whales, it will be hard to gain players confidence and trust.

IMO, most players to that kind of game are big house where they can manipulate the result as expected. I agree with the previous replies in this thread that it's not a lottery but a game of prediction. I don't have huge funds stored in my wallet but I am not interested in joining and rather play the lottery which those players have big amount of bitcoin can manipulate the result.

Doesn't look like a new or innovative idea to me. As the others have mentioned, there a lot of flaws for your lottery and in fact it is not a lottery, but more a bet that you place.

Let's get straight to the point. This is from what I observed in a crypto gambling community. Unfortunately, even how good the system will be, gamblers here are not really into the lottery of any type or whatever tweaks you will apply for it or making it a different form of lottery.

The reason is, they don't want to rely on that 0.0000001$ chance of winning. Much worse than beating the house edge of a casino. Spendings tons of tickets or slots just to increase chances is not a good way of managing a gambler's bankroll.

And while reading some details about your own form of lottery which is actually a sort of prediction, it's not catchy and the process will not really hook up our gamblers here. If you still want to push it then it's up to you. Your decision at the end after all. Explain and clarify how things should work and prove your legitimacy and fairness.

But be ready to the result as your time and effort might won't be paid.

Sounds like a very interesting lottery, I'm sure some economist will try to come up with a model to simulate it though :P

The thing is that people will be so discouraged from buying tickets early that I think there isn't enough motivation for anyone to join until the very last second - in which it becomes very prone to "sniping" and other forms of manipulation of the pot.

I doubt that practically, this is going to work. But it is an intriguing thought experiment.

As others have mentioned, what is the incentive of putting in money at the start of the round?

Sure, the ticket prices may be discounted. But people who come after have such a sizable advantage when it comes to influencing the actual size of the pot that it barely matters. Also, doesn't this become somewhat of a wealth contest? Essentially, whoever is the richest (or at least, richest and most willing to put their funds to this game) will always be able to guess the pot with the most accuracy.

With that said, I don't think that it's going to work. Lotteries are designed to be luck-based.

No!

I dont see on what differs on this one compared to others? Its still all prediction and yet i dont see some strategic sense yet you would just simply
spot out or observe on what would be the pot prize yet this one is all you need.Do you really think that there would be someone willing to
put a bet on early round? Of course they would wait up for the end game..Making it more expensive? this idea is good as dead.

I remember of a website which had (not so similar but a bit of the same type) last nonce digits prediction and we either double or nothing when we go for a given size and if we choose an exact digit, it used to give around 19x the bet (don't remember exactly but not less than that) and the name of the website was satoshinonce. @OP, why don't you create such type of a project where a meaningful prediction is made rather than asking people to predict a pot size?

This game can't even be counted as a lottery in the first place since players literally have no equal chances in a guessing game where people can build a "strategy". Lottery games may it be traditional or modern are always about number being drawn randomly where all players have fair chances to take the prize. Also I don't like the idea of this kind of game technically people or a group who have tons of money can dump their money to buy tickets and can easily predict the number closes to the money they own + the number of money of what others have entered, basically they will be winning every week since they have the best chance possible on predicting the number.

People would just simply wait for the 7th day before they do make a bet because this would be the last day were bets will really be near on pot prize prediction.
Do this one really involved some strategy? No it doesnt because you can already saw those numbers in front of you and just simply input it up and
trying hard to get the last prediction or spot.As said i dont find it interesting at all.

I'm not sure the incentive of a more expensive price will be enough to avoid player to wait for the last minute.
It would be really hard for the first players to guess the amount of the pot.

This would be a nice game to lure in players that wouldn't know when to cut their loss. But also having that much control over an outcome just by betting players with lesser funds less likely to win also. It is a bit counter intuitive to bet in such platform

Do you really think people will put extra money just to increase their chances in the last minute? That's a bad idea and all I can see here is you want to increase the commission you will get. That will destroy the game.

The rules should have a deadline for at least 3 to 4 days before the timestamp. No bets will be accepted after that period.

It's a quick profit to you and all you need to do is to set up the site and fix the whole system.

I am not sure what the purpose of this thread is OP. Are you going to host a prediction game here at BTT and you want to have feedback or is this just an idea you came up with?

If you really want to host such a game I am sure a lot of people can help you and share their ideas to form a fair and fun game. If not discussing such an idea leads to nowhere I think ;)

this will still depend on luck because the prize is unpredictble plus you said you also up the price for ticket on the last minute  . people will think that the price will stop at there but what if someone still continue buying  ? prediction will still fail  but overall this idea is new to me  . its verry unique so id still support it  . trading also works like predicting prices  ( i.e t.a ) and trading is termed as a skill game more than luck , and the mechanics of this game is pretty simillar to it  . so it could be that the game is somehow needs skills  .

If we can find the lottery such as this then probably people will wait until last minutes to being an participants so i think this is cannot be called as lottery game and more likely to called as predictions game because there is no draw process when determine the winner and i fear too the hosts can manipulate the game results

Interesting. But why not have more bettors win something too? I guess there should be First to Tenth prices for 10 winners or even more. The top winner wins the biggest while the last wins smallest. This could increase participation, you know.

Hope the lottery owner won't know the amount in the pot, and other important data?
This will probably work well in decentralized manner

As far as I know, the lottery prizes already announce in the beginning before people buy the tickets so people can buy many tickets which a big hope to win one of the prizes or win the jackpot. If the prizes are changed at the end of the period time, then I don't think that is a lottery.

But maybe you can use that for your own website, and attract people to buy the tickets, and if they are close to the jackpot prizes, they can win. But maybe you can reduce the price of the tickets because that will not attract more people to buy the tickets.

Same though, guessing the pot on the last minute of the 7th day will give you a higher probability of winning. This kind of game is not really a good attraction in crypto gambling. Lotteries or this thpe of game is just like a side bet for gamblers to try their luck for the jackpot for a single bet.

The human nature is greedy and it inducts one person to try and find ways to manipulate or cheat in something when this is a possibility.Based on this a prediction lottery like this one is a really bad idea as it leaves ample room for cheating and manipulating the results.This has not worked before and I doubt it will work now.Better to use the random algorithm to define a winner,there is no possibility of manipulation from the outside in such case.

I think this kind of lottery is unfair early bettor would have a low chance of winning while the last minute bettor have the highest percent of predicting it right.
I don't think any prediction type of lottery would always have it's disadvantage for the early bettor unless you would hide what they are predicting or only give out some small detail.

You have a good imagination but I guess it is a bad idea If you publish the current pot amount anyone can manipulate it and If you hide it no one will join because of "trust" what if the owner of this prediction lottery will manipulate it himself? There is no better way, That is why a lottery like this does not exist or not well-known.

This wouldn’t be considered as a lottery but rather a different type of game.

The whole idea of a lottery is a winner-take-all scheme based on pure luck and randomness. Take those two away from each other and you have a different form of gambling game.

Also, the mechanics in which your idea runs can easily be rigged. Even if the prediction has a fixed-time for betting entries, one person can just submit multiple entries, each of which close to what the pot is by paying an awful lot of tickets. It’s not great money to be made but it’s profit nonetheless.

Or say, if the pot progression is hidden to the players, how sure are the players that they are not being robbed off of their money and fooled by the operators?

Lots of flaws and possible exploits on this one. It wouldn’t sell to the gambling degens IMO.

whats the difference between prediction and lottery in regards to Luck?when you predict you also needs Luck to win mate because this will rely on what will be the outcome and nothings different between the two.

and also there are many prediction games offered here and some are free of Bet like what @mic are doing in speculation section in which he is asking for prediction about the Bitcoin price in each quarter so there can be winners in the end of each quarters.

better just do prediction game so we don't need to make it harder to understand.

It is more on prediction and does not have even the slightest of the idea of lottery where the game is more on luck and everyone have the same level of chance to win the pot. Also, manipulation can happen inside this game and it is not a good idea, gamers will try to avoid this for sure.

There will always be a trust issue in gambling. Even in normal lottery or those government approved lottery games. Though the idea was their but executing it will definitely be a hard time since there are many preferences to consider like who will take the risk of this prediction game. How much will it cost that it's worth betting. It's like a prediction or speculation game wherein we thought of how much the BTC price will be in a open or close prize withing a week. It will all depend on what casino will implement it to test how will it works.

The people will wait and wait and will try to submit the prediction at the very end to be accurate. Also there are many chances that many people may predict the correct value and lottery may have to be distributed among many.
I do not like this new idea and if we implement this, then we cannot term this as a lottery.                                          

There are lots of flaws here.

Since you have control of the system, there is a possibility that you will join the last-minute prediction or makes some manipulations while the countdown is ticking. That type of game is also costly and more expensive while the probability of winning is low. Much better to play instead of 1-2% house edge casinos or bet on sports betting with an odds of 2 above.

BTC0.001 per ticks and it will cost more day by day. Even the price will start at BTC0.0001 it's still expensive until the end. And what if no real players joined, devs can actually manipulate the stats here for people to think that many are putting their bets.

The most absurd idea I've seen in gambling  :D
If you take away luck/randomness, this turns the game into a regular competitive game (even with random elements), there are already a lot of such games - card, sports, competition of forecasters/analysts, etc.
In general, a lottery without luck is even worse than non-alcoholic beer  :)

This is exactly how these games usually end up.

Nobody wants to place the first bet, and instead you just get a large number of people appear right before the end of a round.

Then, the same thing happens again when the round ends, ad infinitum.

Not a very engaging game IMO. No fun factor either.

I don't think this idea will work and it can be abused by those that has enough funds to transfer and be on the exact prediction that they've made before the due date.
Lottery is all about random numbers which no one has an idea what will show next and there's no way to manipulate it.

I find it a little bit strange that a newbie comes into bitcointalk with a proto-concept for a lottery by makes no mention of the back end working of the competition - who will adjudicate, who will act as escrow for the funds and where will the competition be held - here or, off site?  There are plenty of questions that need to be answered by the OP.

I really don't understand how it works coz when we are talking about the lottery, it is all about luck...we don't need to apply any strategies or even doing things to increase our chances of winning because there is nothing unlike with the other games.

We call this a lottery game and not any prediction game...And I am sorry to tell you also @OP that even prediction will work on you but not actually it helps you when it comes into lottery unless you will create your own lottery site and you can manipulate the results.

Talking about chances, I think there's more into it. It is true that it can get manipulated by buying a lot of tickets, assuming you're a whale, but if all people wouldn't know how much tickets are already sold, I think what this betting game would act as a security measure is how much tickets are sold by random people and not single entities.

If you're a whale trying to use the strategy said above, you'd have a hugher chance of winning IF your bet amount is significantly higher than all other tickets sold aside from you. If your bet is lower, then it's more likely for you to lose since there are also bets of amounts close to your range, and assuming there's no way of telling how much is in the pot, assuming there are no information leaked, could be a potential game.

Basically, the security if this game lies on people's honesty to not contribute to any large-scale consensus that would spill out possible pot range. You can counteract whales by placing a max number of tickets available for purchase for every user, but they can easily make multiple accounts, or pay other people to bet on their behalf.

I enjoy playing in lotteries and jackpots every now and then like most people here, but I have actually played in jackpots like this one in the past and my experience is also that people just end up entering right near the end like what's been mentioned in the OP despite any sort of system to discourage this activity. I imagine almost nobody would ever enter right at the beginning of such a jackpot because of the insanely low odds of guessing correctly compared to the potential rewards based on how high or low the final jackpot amount might even end up being. Ends up being a waiting game till the last few minutes or whatever timeframe you set for the final bets to enter more than anything engaging, which is why I would probably never play a game like this.

OP called it as not depending on luck because players can put as much as bet they want especially at the endgame while the deadline is near. The strategy is to spend money as much as they can to increase the winning chances.

In other words, it is still a luck-based game lol but with a twist.

I don't see any site that becomes a success to this type of betting meaning it's not preferred by most people. OP can still continue his plan and see if it can attract some people here.

It's more complicated than a lottery IMO, and ticket should be expensive for some? i doubt that would sell, it's like trading or gambling using some skills but it's not really lottery. What I understand with lottery is that you buy ticket and you'll wait for the result, its not complicated like your idea.

I do not know if there is a lottery that is not base on luck where a specific skills are required. Lottery are most likely based on luck and the chances of winning is very low. If you wan to use your gambling skills then it is better if you play in online gambling sites which is not base on luck. I'm a poker player and both luck and skills are important, you will not win in card  games if you are just lucky or vice versa. You need both of the two in order to win and make profit.

There's always a skills driven ideas which can be used at online gambling, but unfortunately all those games are presetted with a real time results. Even how you put to an effort to establish a certain plans to win, but it's not 100% guaranteed because of random picks. Same with lottery, the results isn't accurate and all you need is to enjoy the game without any pressures.

but the thing here is OP is asking about prediction type of lottery in which i see no difference because both are relying on luck.
predicting is partly luck based also so what can be the difference?
OP only making things hard for gamblers when he can just called the Game Prediction or the other is lottery ,and don't make things complicated.

We all know that one of the best gambling games that can play an individual that does not need too much knowledge is the lottery because most of the time it tests the luck of a person. But still, there is a trick inside the game because it is included with the use of statistics and probability to identify which is the card has a chance of having a winner card or lottery but if the number of the contestant goes up and too many it is hard to handle that and predict the possible money and now this will happen the luck of a person because there are a large number of contestants still they have a chance to win a single lottery game.

You are right, I looked at the history of his posts, and with this (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5224984.) in mind, it seems to me that the OP should tell more about himself, about his ideas and why he began to promote them so abruptly here.

Exactly... That is the problem. A wealthy participant or whale could somehow guess the right amount if he/she keeps betting to the level that it becomes difficult for small bettors to participate. The model is prone to abuse If Op has no countermeasures

Yeah,,, and in the end the whales always win. FOMO3d or whatever gambling game that depends on biggest or latest just means the guy with the biggest wallet or the fastest connection or the best whatever wins. And that means the poor guy and the small fish always lose. Bad idea, bad implementation,,,

... and bad involvement of potential participants. These shortcomings are visible immediately after looking at the algorithm of such a lottery; accordingly, few people will show a desire to be a participant.

Still one who enters as last person can win that lottery even after paying high price,which is likely investing and getting reap from it.I will say this is really a bad idea and people won't get interested on these kind of lotteries.

Thanks for all the comments and feedback. At least the post opened an interesting discussion.

I've been myself player of dice, poker and other games. I am just trying to create something different and that depends more on strategy and skill rather than in luck.

First of all, let's don't call it a lottery, it can be called a prediction or betting game. Then, there is the problem of last-minute tickets advantage over other players. I think this can be avoided by doing the game run continuously, without 'round', so every ticket/prediction is checked against the jackpot after an equal period of time, for example, a day or a week. And let's say that the winner gets 50% of the jackpot, to avoid that it goes to 0. With these changes, it is more difficult to predict the jackpot, because some other player may win after you place the bet, so the jackpot will decrease to half.

I realize that this concept of game still need more thinking and work. I think I am going to make a simple website with 'play money', so everybody can test the idea, suggest variations and perhaps we end up with a game that works. Will see...

That is a bad idea.  That can be gamed by someone who has a lot of bitcoin.  Imagine you have a bunch of bitcoin all you have to do is guess the highest amount and make sure the pool gets that high using alt accounts to "buy tickets".  And that's not a lottery there are those types of games and rounds everywhere

Well still it will be totally based on luck because no matter how much you calculate, a person can just buy 100 times more tickets in the last minute and change the outcome and maybe there will be no ticket sold even when you calculate so it's also purely based on luck and the last minute buyers will have a very big advantage even if the price they will pay is high for a ticket.

I second this. And it does not even make it fairer that the late bettors will pay more expensive tickets. It does not matter especially for whales and big time bettors whether they will be spending bigger amount for as long as they have very high probability of winning.

However, personally, I might still play this kind of lottery especially if the jackpot price is very big.

What do you dislike about luck games?
And why don't you just choose some other games (non-gambling) from the many already created games, but want to create a new one? Or for some reason you want to create something fundamentally new in this area?

Well, copying is boring. Innovation is more exciting, even if it becomes a failure.

Good pitch but this is more like a prediction game than a lottery.

Lottery really includes luck, you can't separate those two. I think you want to minimize the risk into this game that is why you are finding a way to remove the game from being luck dependable. If you will stick to predictions, maybe you can just create a puzzle or a question and pick the correct answers to the people who answered correctly. Since you want a 7-day long game, you could just eliminate those who answered wrong and on the last day, the ones who remain wins.

This feels like a wagering competition since it all comes down to whoever is able to snipe the final ticket. Like the others mentioned luck is still a factor but imo a lottery game would be more favorable to those who don't spend too much since they still have a shot at winning even though it's very unlikely while on this game whoever bets the earliest is likely to lose.

If certain rules are added it could be fair like having a weighted system for example the last gambler predicted correctly but he doesn't win the entire pot so that the game could still look appealing.

with the growing industry of gambling , many new sites are popping up with limited ideas but most of them just copy and slightly modify the other . that is why they fail too easy because they lack of originality .  its alway a good idea if you came up with something original and its okay if itl fail but atleast its original  . besides there are still a room for improvement  . just include beta on your site if your not done with the improvement and people will understand that  .

We cant blame those creator of new gambling site even some of them are not reliable or untrustworthy even some of them they create it intentionally just to get something from us. So we must be very careful, but we dont need to worry about that because still many gambling site are worth it, only remind that we should know how to notice the real and safe one, dont easily attract to there prices that they can give.

From when predictions are not based on luck?
The concept you are think is nothing different than luck. You just give the option to the participants to take the luck on their hands.
I don't think your Idea is going to create a new way of doing lotteries.

Yeah lol, basically any gambling will give a result of the luck factor, maybe he feels something like an expert who doesn't need luck when gambling, because even any predictions made will only produce results for a loss if you really are the one who no luck anytime when you gamble.
Does the pot you make guarantee predictions that anyone who bet will win the bet? I don't think so, someone who wins a bet will still be based on their luck.

For your new games that you want to be create is good to research more and know the consequence of that.

Personly Im a lottery player and betting on that kind of gambling is not easy because there is a lot of combination number that it have and the chance of winning is very low but the winning prizes are very high.

You can get Idea here from the other members here about your game and how to improve it incase you want to be start.

It isn't really a lottery it is more likely a prediction game but this is the first one that would depend on the pot money,
The only known prediction games are crypto price like BTC.
It is a good one but the tickets shouldn't have a number so the gamblers shouldn't have any idea on how many tickets has been sold.
I think the site should only put the informations of how many gamblers have bought a ticket but not the info about how many tickets has been sold,
For  example a gambler could buy 10 or more ticket to have a high chance of winning but the site would only register it as one gambler.

Copying works well if your main goal is to make money. And I think even the fulfillment of this goal is very exciting - there are no guarantees that you will achieve it.
As for your project, I did not see much innovation. This is just a mix of luck games and games using certain skills. Maybe you should come up with something radically new.

And in order to pull this bettig game off perfectly ou would need to hide the amount of bettors that had already placed their entries. Otherwise people will just be able to predict the total amount of what is in the pot. This is something that bettors don't like as it doesn't promote fairness in the game. Moreover, if you are to push hiding the amount of players who have bet, it will go back to being an RNG gambling game which defeats the purpose in itself of this gane you are creating. So I don't see this game really surviving as there are many gambling sites who can do this better, so there's no niche you're hoping to fill in the market. And that is bad as it will saturate the industry. I

That's the way he goes...and I'm sure that this experiment never works and people never follow what OP did. Because I'd never see any attraction to what he does and we know that winning in gambling is mostly because of having luck (less strategy) and lottery needs luck IMO. And my bad experience in the lottery tells me something that is not the right place for me because luck isn't in favor of me rather than playing card games where I can apply some strategies.

That is a good idea but I think this not called lottery this game is prediction. And this kind of game is need a luck also because only one can win and so we need to be predict the right answer. Every game that involves gambling is need a luck if don't have that I think gambling is not yours.

I guess before he is launching the website, he can ask some people to test the site so he can get suggestions from them, and if it is necessary, he can add more features inside the site. When he can get more tips from many people, he can make his gambling site better because he can apply for each recommendation from the people. After every step to modify or the test phase is completed, he can launch the site to the public, and if he wants, he can give a welcome bonus to every people.

Lottery is a type of game that is played by guessing a number of numbers where the fewer the number of combinations of numbers we buy, the less chance of winning and vice versa if the more combination of numbers we buy, the greater the chance of victory.

Does it require luck? Yes, after buying one or more combinations of numbers then only luck will make us win. This is of course because there is no sure way to guess the numbers correctly because the determination of numbers issued randomly.

So it's not just the lottery, I think all games need luck and someone who wins the game is the lucky one. Have capital, effort, luck and they will be said to be winners and conversely, have capital, effort, have no luck then they are not people who are said to be winners and are declared as losers.

I think having a bitcoin lottery without relying on the luck is better, especially if it requires us to do research or analyze to win the game, having a kind of new game it better for those persons that are so addicted from gambling, but the mechanics of the game that you have said is not a good thing. I wouldn't try that prediction lottery because of improper mechanics and instruction. I think that no person will put a bet for so early. They would prefer to bet closer to the end period. It is okay to buy a higher price of a ticket if I will assure myself that I have a big chance to win that prediction lottery, hence purchasing a smaller amount of ticket but is not good to win the game. But by the way, that kind of bitcoin lottery is useful if you change the mechanics' mate, try to consider the reactions of the audience, so the product of the things that you are promoting will become better. There are so many ways to make that better, think deeply, but for me, I would strongly suggest changing the mechanics of the game.

I don't think it would prosper or engaged in by a lot of people because it could be manipulated buy other parties joining the game. Lottery is gambling that's why it is very risky, now, if you take out the luck or random part in it, it would not be gambling any more but, a prediction game wherein the participants are left only with their precision in their deciding and strategy factor excluding their luck to win randomly.

actually all gambling is not that easy to win,there are some of them that may looks easy but the truth is?if we dont have luck still we cannot win.
i am thinking about about manipulation because i see nothing if this will be created by a trusted person,but if not?then for sure manipulation will happen thats why i still believe in luck in gambling.

I also think of the same way there wouldn't be a way for us to know if the game is rigged.
Well someone from the team could always bet before it ends and we couldn't know that they are part of the team since there would be so many gamblers.

I like your fighting spirit to create something new from all of those old boring gambling games,
But OP how could we know that this isn't going to be a one sided bet?