IDEA for a lottery that does not depend on luck

[cryptoini]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

[1714967372]

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[1714967372]

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[acroman08]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

It's a prediction game, not a lottery game. also, you'll have to hide the information about how many people have bought the ticket in order to hide the total money that has been gathered because if you don't people can easily estimate how much money is on the pot. hiding information on a game like this is a no-no for most gamblers and we will never know you are going to fix the game since the winner won't be random and you have all the information that is needed to win.

[Little Mouse]

This is really a bad idea I think because for people who will predict at the beginning will never be a winner. Anyone can manipulate anyone's prediction.
It's better to choose winner by the prediction of sum digit of a future hash. That can never be manipulated.

[cryptoini]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

It's a prediction game, not a lottery game. also, you'll have to hide the information about how many people have bought the ticket in order to hide the total money that has been gathered because if you don't people can easily estimate how much money is on the pot. hiding information on a game like this is a no-no for most gamblers and we will never know you are going to fix the game since the winner won't be random and you have all the information that is needed to win.

Thanks for your comment. You are right about that the system can be manipulated and it is difficult to trust. One variation to solve this is to keep the 1 week period, but independently for each ticket, so then each player tries to predict how much is the jackpot after 1 week. Example: one player buys 1 ticket for 0.001 BTC on day 11-02-2020 12:00 hours and predicts a pot of 0.150 BTC for the day 11-09-2020 12:00 hours, then other players buy they tickets, each one with a different timestamp. On the day 11-09-2020 12:00 hours, the systems check if he prediction is true or not. In this type of game the prediction must be exactly the pot amount o we can introduce a margin of error of let's say 5%. With this system, the operator cannot manipulate the result and all players have the same chance to win because the time period is the same.

[cryptoini]

This is really a bad idea I think because for people who will predict at the beginning will never be a winner. Anyone can manipulate anyone's prediction.
It's better to choose winner by the prediction of sum digit of a future hash. That can never be manipulated.

Check my last comment, where I talk about the option that all players have the same time period for predictions.

[2double0]

What if more than 1 player chooses the same value of the total pot? There is around 100% probability the last person will choose the very rounding digit even paying higher and buy more tickets to win the lottery.

[cryptoini]

What if more than 1 player chooses the same value of the total pot? There is around 100% probability the last person will choose the very rounding digit even paying higher and buy more tickets to win the lottery.

Yes, that's a good point. That's why I am thinking that each ticket runs independently and all predictions have 1 week time period. So you are always predicting how much the pot will be after 1 week. In that week's time period, the pot could increase because new tickets or could decrease because somebody hits the jackpot.

[2double0]

What if more than 1 player chooses the same value of the total pot? There is around 100% probability the last person will choose the very rounding digit even paying higher and buy more tickets to win the lottery.

Yes, that's a good point. That's why I am thinking that each ticket runs independently and all predictions have 1 week time period. So you are always predicting how much the pot will be after 1 week. In that week's time period, the pot could increase because new tickets or could decrease because somebody hits the jackpot.

Pot size increase is understandable but decrease? You mean that someone who loses the lottery once during a week, his prediction still remains in the system for 1 more week or am I missing something here? I am confused how can it be decreased and the fact that the last timers will win is based on how users watch predictors carefully and get an estimate to lock a possible winning number, which makes lower predictions void of having any possibility to win at all.

[kryptqnick]

The issues with this specific suggestion have been brought up already. People can guess the same number, trust issues, manipulations... For instance, op, as for your option of a 1-week period, say a person predicts that the pot will be something big like 0.5 BTC, and then close to the end of weekly period bets as many times as necessary to make this prediction true. Oh, and what does not allow you, the creator to fill in the pot in a way that everyone's predictions are wrong but the one made by you/your friend is the winning one?
I really like the idea of a skill-based 'lottery', but it should be something other than predicting the pot, something with fewer issues.

[bitbunnny]

This doesn't look like a good idea to me. Too much possibilities for manipulation and low transparency, that is not promising and doesn't make players confident about it. It's not clear how would you deal with same predictions and what results would that make.
Also it doesn't matter that is based on predictions, it's still a lottery.

[khaled0111]

The problem with such models is that players with small banckrolls will not be incentivized to join as their chances of winning are tiny.
Also, knowing that game results can be easily manipulated by the house or big whales, it will be hard to gain players confidence and trust.

[nakamura12]

IMO, most players to that kind of game are big house where they can manipulate the result as expected. I agree with the previous replies in this thread that it's not a lottery but a game of prediction. I don't have huge funds stored in my wallet but I am not interested in joining and rather play the lottery which those players have big amount of bitcoin can manipulate the result.

[babygun]

Doesn't look like a new or innovative idea to me. As the others have mentioned, there a lot of flaws for your lottery and in fact it is not a lottery, but more a bet that you place.

[harizen]

Let's get straight to the point. This is from what I observed in a crypto gambling community. Unfortunately, even how good the system will be, gamblers here are not really into the lottery of any type or whatever tweaks you will apply for it or making it a different form of lottery.

The reason is, they don't want to rely on that 0.0000001$ chance of winning. Much worse than beating the house edge of a casino. Spendings tons of tickets or slots just to increase chances is not a good way of managing a gambler's bankroll.

And while reading some details about your own form of lottery which is actually a sort of prediction, it's not catchy and the process will not really hook up our gamblers here. If you still want to push it then it's up to you. Your decision at the end after all. Explain and clarify how things should work and prove your legitimacy and fairness.

But be ready to the result as your time and effort might won't be paid.

[magneto]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

Sounds like a very interesting lottery, I'm sure some economist will try to come up with a model to simulate it though

The thing is that people will be so discouraged from buying tickets early that I think there isn't enough motivation for anyone to join until the very last second - in which it becomes very prone to "sniping" and other forms of manipulation of the pot.

I doubt that practically, this is going to work. But it is an intriguing thought experiment.

[hello_good_sir]

As others have mentioned, what is the incentive of putting in money at the start of the round?

Sure, the ticket prices may be discounted. But people who come after have such a sizable advantage when it comes to influencing the actual size of the pot that it barely matters. Also, doesn't this become somewhat of a wealth contest? Essentially, whoever is the richest (or at least, richest and most willing to put their funds to this game) will always be able to guess the pot with the most accuracy.

With that said, I don't think that it's going to work. Lotteries are designed to be luck-based.

[dunfida]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

No!

I dont see on what differs on this one compared to others? Its still all prediction and yet i dont see some strategic sense yet you would just simply
spot out or observe on what would be the pot prize yet this one is all you need.Do you really think that there would be someone willing to
put a bet on early round? Of course they would wait up for the end game..Making it more expensive? this idea is good as dead.

[Stedsm]

I remember of a website which had (not so similar but a bit of the same type) last nonce digits prediction and we either double or nothing when we go for a given size and if we choose an exact digit, it used to give around 19x the bet (don't remember exactly but not less than that) and the name of the website was satoshinonce. @OP, why don't you create such type of a project where a meaningful prediction is made rather than asking people to predict a pot size?

[Theb]

This game can't even be counted as a lottery in the first place since players literally have no equal chances in a guessing game where people can build a "strategy". Lottery games may it be traditional or modern are always about number being drawn randomly where all players have fair chances to take the prize. Also I don't like the idea of this kind of game technically people or a group who have tons of money can dump their money to buy tickets and can easily predict the number closes to the money they own + the number of money of what others have entered, basically they will be winning every week since they have the best chance possible on predicting the number.

[carlfebz2]

This game can't even be counted as a lottery in the first place since players literally have no equal chances in a guessing game where people can build a "strategy". Lottery games may it be traditional or modern are always about number being drawn randomly where all players have fair chances to take the prize. Also I don't like the idea of this kind of game technically people or a group who have tons of money can dump their money to buy tickets and can easily predict the number closes to the money they own + the number of money of what others have entered, basically they will be winning every week since they have the best chance possible on predicting the number.

People would just simply wait for the 7th day before they do make a bet because this would be the last day were bets will really be near on pot prize prediction.
Do this one really involved some strategy? No it doesnt because you can already saw those numbers in front of you and just simply input it up and
trying hard to get the last prediction or spot.As said i dont find it interesting at all.