Bitcoin Forum

How will the Halving affect the miners? According to the laws of demand and supply, the scarcity of the Bitcoin supply will lead to an increase in Bitcoin demand, leading to a rise in prices. Is this only in theory though?

This is what I got from an article on the Bitcoin Halving and its theoretical effects: https://elitemininginc.com/2020/02/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving

But I think miners can't afford to proceed on just speculation. Or is that exactly what is going to happen? Seems we are entering the bear market again and we are only a few months away from the Halving

Well, I am pretty sure there are way more miners going for speculation than you think. That's how it most likely became popular to mine BTC: whoever mined BTC in 2015 when a Bitcoin was worth $170-200 had their mined coins become worth 100x more two years later. Think of how many have invested in BTC when its price was between $10k and $20k hoping another 10-100x increase would follow - I could easily link this to what happens with mining.

The title asks about the way halving affects the price and the post asks how will it affect miners... which one do you want to know? :D

Well honestly I want to know about both, but I didn't want to make a long title.
One thing is linked to the other as I see this

Scarcity does not lead to increased demand according to the laws of supply and demand.

There is also a small error in the article: the subsidy drops to 0 after the 33rd halving, not the 64th.

I believe he wants to know the answer for the both the btc price and the miners.

Most of the speculation says that the halving would help bitcoin's value boost up but considering the fact that it's still just a speculation, we cannot consider it as an assured result of the halving. As we wait for the halving to happen, if we believe that it would increase bitcoin's price, we should already start setting ourselves ready for it so that we can make the most from it and avoid letting it slip away out of our hands. Be mindful of what may occur if that happens and atleast monitor bitcoin's value to see if the assumptions are real.

Well, basically block halving will affect miners financially.
Unfortunately, miners needs to upgrade their computer hardware such as GPU's for them to be able to solve blocks faster, since every halving, Bitcoin will become harder and harder to mine.
Eventually, some small time miners will shutdown due to the expenses in upgrading, electric consumption, and the continues halving of rewards.
Only those who have big mining farms is capable of sustaining their business.

Of course it'll affect on BTC price. This article (https://masterthecrypto.com/bitcoin-halving/) will answer about your all confusing thought i guess. BTC halving created because of miners. Think if there is no miners mine bitcoin then how would you transaction bitcoin. So it's important to take care of miners profit. If you'll see past halving time then you can clearly understand that how much important halving is for affect on BTC price. But it's true also that hoping for unrealistic price is also a foolish thought.

The much anticipated halving is all set to happen in May and there are bunch of speculations coming from the so called experts and analyst's. Well I would like to share my personal thoughts about this, after going through some research and the two previous halvings I believe there will be a massive pump in BTC price.

Well in order to be profitable miners should try mining rigs with low power consumption because it clearly depends on the Power consumption.

More halvings means less profit for miners, which are the ones verifying transactions on the blockchain. after enough halvings it wont be profitable to mine any if the price doesnt follow the expenses. Which then could lead to a massive decline as people would start to look for a new crypto to replace it with. or in a worse case, a whole other kind of market.
therefore it could go either way. after all, bitcoin did manage to survive until now. so i dont see why it wouldnt keep doing so with a bigger community now than ever

Could it be because the demands still the same while the supplies gets lesser and lesser?

Miners will only mine about 6.25BTC after this coming halving, they may find it not profitable at first few months I guess but then the lesser coins they sell the higher the price could be as it will turn out the system itself is hoarding the supplies while people kept buying BTC. While the price keep growing, the miners will soon find out that its going to still be profitable to mine because prices is growing.

Kinda like it has already happened in the past. Last halvening true lasting effects on price didn't come into effect until about a year after it happened, so it's really not all immediate either

Hopefully both sides will be explained here and based on the ideas that I had, halving effects is really amazing when there's a consistent price increase. Demand will follow for the entire market influence, so we will able to see the price growth progress. Miners will also increase the numbers of transactions as well as profit, because more people starts to trade and blockchain network will be back to its normal activities.

You can't mine BTC profitably on a GPU or in your browser. The biggest factor in profitability is the cost of electricity. A small miner can make a good profit if they can get their electricity at a low cost.


The miners that are not profitable will stop mining, but mining will always be profitable to some miners. There is no danger of no miners being able to make a profit, no matter what the price is.


A miner's profitability depends on their costs compared to all other miners. That might be related to their power consumption, but not directly.


The halving does not reduce the supply. It reduces the production. The supply does not get lesser and lesser. It continues to grow until it reaches 21 million.

Aside from the possibility of a Bull run as the halving event occurs, we should also anticipate the possibility of the miners whether they would continue to mine or not because, the halving event might overcome the power they need to continue. A decrease in reward might make them lose their capability to continue mining for Bitcoin because, the reward might not be enough for them because of an inadequate funds to operate. Even if that happens, the possibility for a Bull run would still be possible and it might only make it more possible because, the decrease in the miners = decrease in the accumulation of supply that would only fuel the impending Bull run to happen.

That is not how it works :)

Yes the supply of Bitcoin will decrease in the next months but that doesn't mean that the demand will increase immediately like what you said. Maybe the supply will decrease but the demand will still be the same. Maybe the supply will go lower and the same time demand will go lower too. The decreasing of supply of Bitcoin doesn't mean that the demand will increase and will lead to a rise in prices.


We will be in a bear market if we are 21% below from its recent highs. RSI is slowly going upwards base on the charts and luckily, we managed to hold the 21 weekly EMA which is an important support too. After this correction, I expect for a rise in the next weeks before the halving happen :).

By these so, what is the real purpose of having this bitcoin halving.

Iirc, the ones to be most affected by the halving would be the Miners. Halving means the rewards they get from mining gets halved, but the processing power they use would still be the same so it isn't in a balance anymore. Plus, the supply is directly linked to it so it takes more processing power after than halving compared to before the halving in mining a single block, thereby making the costs to performance to rewards ratio different compared to the past. If we were to see it as 1:1:1 in the past, the after halving would be 1:1.5:0.5 or something similar. Not particularly sure about the specifics of it though.

There is always a way. They can quit mining bitcoin and switch to another one if they don't see profit.
Afterwards, there will be new miners that would want a spot for mining bitcoin.
Or, the difficulty will be lower and they will have an easy way to make bitcoin for just a manner of time.

They always have a choice here. They are not mandated to stay.
It is like business, when there is no profit then you will need to let it go and find a new one.
Another way is, they could upgrade all their technology for a better outcome.

But we should not much worry about this. Bitcoin will provide. That, I dont have any doubt about.

Generally everyone knows that Halving reduces rewards, for crypto miners like bitcoin, which is a habit that happens every four years, if not mistaken.

What is very common is the Halving phenomenon, which can be attributed to an increase in value which has an impact on fiat, in this case everyone knows is reducing the supply of Bitcoin which only made 21 million pieces.

Basically, Halving can be linked like a deeper dig to find something valuable against a very limited and thinning reserve, For this it could happen Halving against Bitcoin, because decentralized Bitcoin is very much different from fiat money, it is caused by the distributed network in Bitcoin spending, so if explained here we have to write a full page, about Halving, Reducing half the cryptocurrency.
OP, just wait until the time comes.

Considering it is only affecting the miners maybe it won't affect as much as we imagine it may? I mean we are talking about something major for miners of course and those miners are a major part of crypto as well so all in all we are still talking about something important but people are reacting like "after halving price will be $100k!!!" or whatever and that is not really realistic.

Definitely, it will be affected and sure even if not right after halving, some time after halving the price will be affected as well and we will see it go up, but I doubt this halving could ever affect the price like going to $100k or whatever, it will at most make it $20k once again and that's about it.

It will make a good bounce and reached maybe the last time high or more than that, since each halving brings good effects to entire market and once the whales also played alongside with the fomos this would be an interesting event, many people will be attached back and place their respective position knowing that opportunities are being open to them. We have to consider the history and if it will repeated itself more chances to earned and make this  business as more profitable.

Agree, and that's very unfortunate if someone who has small mining hardware was located in a country where the electricity cost is high. I only know some countries that has a low electricity cost such as Sweden and China. I was thinking, maybe there are a lot of miners who's willing to move to this countries to get more profit than the usual profit they get from the places where electricity bills are so high.

I agree with you that it won't go high as  100kusd on a snap after the halving. Dec2017 btc price surge won't happen again this year or the following year, expect 20k+ after 5 to 10 years.

If I would be ask, we camnot be certain of such thing. Nut if we would base on the previous bitcoin halving, it have triggered the market price increase, so technically, assumptions would go in favor for an anticipated bullish uptrend in its market price. But as I have observed, things are different between the past bitcoin halving and the anticipated one. The prices before started to rise before the occurence of Bitcoin halving. While at this moment, given that the date of halving is getting near, thr prices are still bearish. So there could be two possibilities on the upcoming bitcoin halving: it could trigger a price or there will be nothing much of an effect.
Well those who are expecting of such market value are just being absurd at this moment. It might be due to their frustrations because the market price has just started to show green marks this year unlike on the previous years especially since correction occured. They might be coping up with the frustrations by making unrealistic assumptions but the fact is we don't have assurance that the increase, if there will be any, will be that high.

and do you have any reason why you think that an 11 year long trend of rising in the same way (big percentages within short amount of time) is going to be changed this year and not just a small change a big change to small rise in a very long time?
because i don't see any reason at all for this trend to change. in fact i could see this trend become even stronger meaning much bigger rises in much shorter time frames like 1500% rise in a year instead of 1000% in 2 years.

In essence, because halving has an effect on miners, it is very likely that transaction costs will rise again. in addition, the need for bitcoin makes prices more expensive, whereas mining no longer produces large amounts of bitcoin assets, however, mining yields will be reduced by half.
if the demand for bitcoin increases, this will make prices rise, and many people speculate that the upcoming halving will make the price of bitcoin reached its new ATH.

It's been a long time since people speculates that the price will constantly increase, but it was a failure. Everything went so bad after several changes had broken down the momentum, in which possibly help the demand to rise further. I am still hopeful that bitcoin could reach the new ATH without any problems, and successfully achieve a progressive trend this 2020.

there is no sure way to see how much price will go until it happened already. but its definitely gonna go up as we have see form the beginning of this year. maybe even before halving we will hit to $10k again. the market had dip a lot by how the chart looks but the price did't actually go below $8k so its a good sign. while the price has concrete support level, the halving will make it even stronger when miners aren't going to sell their coins for less.

There's no guarantee of any results in crypto, so far in 2020 the price of BTC has not shown any inverse correlation. Due to the outbreak of corona virus across asia and many other countries investors have started to sell their assets, if the BTC price does not increase effectively after the halving then I don't think this year could end up with a massive change.

It seems like almost everyone are worried about of the Bitcoin halving and the current trend epidemic that almost everyday I read this kind of thread. As long as the virus itself is alive I think this kind of question will always gonna pop up somewhere again. The market is just too volatile and the halving will make a great effect on the price of Bitcoin just look at the previous halving on how it acted before the bullish market.

This is not a theory. Logically speaking, this should what's about to happen but as they say, we can't be sure if the same cycle shall happen when halving comes. We don't know what's in the mind of the miners, they play an important role and let's just wait until it comes and remain positive.

We have no idea until we get there, all are speculating unless we finally see the exact moment after the halving. But I'm very much positive just like what happened in the past but we can't compare it there and it's not the exact proportion of the situation.

Here on the forum, we all know what the economy says on this when supply goes down and demand goes up the price should rise. We will be here and we will see the effects of the halving, not just on Bitcoin, on the entire crypto market. We need to be patient and we will see, and normally if you believe in positive outcome you will invest in crypto now and wait for it, if you believe in negative outcome you will see what you have and you will buy gold. It' can be a life-changing decision, it can lift you up or drop you on the bottom, are you ready to risk?

Certainly there will be some affects but sometimes I do wonder if we are over exaggerating the affects of bitcoin as well. All of us here are looking at bitcoin halving like something that would literally save us from bear and suddenly make things more and more expensive because miners will want it that way but do we really know miners have that kind of power?

I mean sure they do have some but remember the bitcoin cash times? They wanted to move bitcoin to another direction but failed to do it so now they have a hard fork of bitcoin instead. So, if they weren't powerful enough to change bitcoin to their direction, why would they be able to change the price of it to where they want as well? On contrary they will be always forced to sell their coins to cover the costs as well.

Of course, Bitcoin's halving will have a positive impact on Bitcoin's price, but also if Bitcoin starts to grow, the rest of the market will start to grow along with it.

There are so many discussions already on that subject. To my opinion people are having too big expectations from halving and think that will produce some huge price jump similar to those at the end of 2017. Some positive effects will happen but not in such big extend and probaly the impact will not have a long term impact. That is my opinion but I allow the option to be surprised at the end, hope in positive way.

And because of 2017 effect many people speculates that there's something big gonna happen on these halving  year but unfortunately we cannot experience that on some matter since there still a big threat on the economy and yet many people cannot participate to buy bitcoins these days but lets just hope that there's a positive news and all worried from those affected country will be taken away.

Well if we are going to trace back btc halving history, it clearly we see an increased in btc price and in mining block rewards but we can't say that history always repeats itself all the time.

The halving will cut the difficulty by half, thus making mining more easy to miners. This, however, will make them cut the electricity costs by half, which will make the price fall to 1/4 of current cost (half doubled = 1/4). The current cost is $8k, so the price will be cut to $4k after the halving of the difficulty, then $2k after the halving of electricity costs. There is a third factor which is the derivatives casino, which will cut the price by half again, thus sub-1000 levels will be the price six months after halving.

The effect of halving will change this time because of the worldwide effect of this pandemic problem.

Yeah halving always bring best chance not only for miners but the whole crypto market in the last 2 events we’ve had before.

But now?look at the market more than 1 month before this awaited event,see whats happening?the flow of the market seems no concrete direction,though staying in 6$k level yet no good sign of increasing or decreasing.

It isnt surprising for people to think up that way yet we have seen the history on how the price performed after halving event.Just to say that the said upcoming event is somewhat being
diverted to the current issue we are facing now which is the pandemic thing.Come to know that we are only just 49 days left on the said halving.Nothing is assured when in talks
to the future we might either see an increase,decrease or even moving sideways.

As i said earlier,nothing is certain but at least we do know deep inside on ourselves that there would be always a possibility on having the same
situation that we have faced into those golden days.

Specially with this kind of market now?absolutely there will be no repeat happening this next quarter or until the last till december.
There are no cure for the sickness or for the virus so the dumping will continue until the cure finds.
But Halving will give us profit but when the time the Bull starts right after the crisis ends and the effect of halving will take place.

we are still on the first quarter of the year and it will take a long time for us to reach december and with this time span i think the virus will not exist anymore  .

 there are now cures that i see online and on youtube but some of those sources are not yet verified  however if we look at china , how can people on those country got cured if no medicines for corona invented  ?

  halving will not be postponed because of this virus and i still believe that halving can boost the price  of the cryptos   .

Some being hopeless but many are also positive that this halving event could help much.
Might we say that this is just an assumption and yet, we are speculating the future of crypto? Either it happens or not, people will also have to accept it. Price fluctuation is inevitable, the trend keeps changing all the time. Therefore, we can't expect that halving will put as at ease and think that pumps will come along.

The previous halving has a positive result and I do believe that this could also the same but thinking how the price moves, it is a bit different from before. A lot of factors that could help to twist the market trend and so much more about how coronavirus makes it.

The issue is that many people are looking at crypto and how its correlated with the stock market. This is why we were tanking earlier however now that the stock indicies futures are open and they are not tanking we are actually rallying back up.

So if the situation gets worse and if SP500 keeps hitting new yearly lows every week or every other week then it won't be pretty for BTC since many consider it to be an risk-on asset and many sell those usually in recessions. At times like this many want to remain cash and rather buy stocks or cryptos at a fraction of the price sometime in the next 6 months or so.

If the Pandemic stops this 2nd quarter then for sure there will be some changes mate and may see some good point on how the Halving will effect the growth of market again though nothing is certain.
Maybe not along but will happen soon,if not in this year then the following will may right?
But the previous Halving take effect months after the event so realistically this will happen also now?anything can come now or in future but lets not lose hope.

Most likely it won't stop in the 2nd quarter, maybe in the 3rd quarter. However the economic damage that it created can last for years. Keep in mind many people lost their jobs and it will take years to refill those jobs.

Usually businesses lay people off, say 100 people and then they start to hire people slowly, first 50, then 25 and maybe if business is good the remaining 25. Hence its a domino effect. Less people working, less goods and services pretty much.

Like I said before. The issue is that bitcoin is following equities, hence when its not going down. SP500 keeps printing higher and higher, however people are still losing their jobs. Eventually most earnings for companies will be negative and stocks will eventually stop rising and either go to new low or trade sideways and bitcoin will follow. Don't think the halving in 1 month will have much effect really. If stocks go up that day, so will bitcoin. If they go down, so will bitcoin.

It's interesting that stocks made two new local highs (on the 14th and 16th) but BTC didn't. Still all lower highs since the 7th. One has to wonder, is BTC still going up with stocks, or are stocks just keeping BTC from crashing?

We're now officially in earnings season too. It's going to be a brutal onslaught of horrible financials, so while I don't like to call tops, we'd better start getting ready for the inevitable reversal.

This is why we need to be conservative with our expectations with the upcoming halving. But I believe, the price of bitcoin will go up but not that so high as compared to some spectators going above 20k. There are a lot of factors to consider here as we are still in the pandemic situation experienced in almost all parts of the globe. Crypto users should not see this upcoming halving as potential to be a get-rich-quick situation for them because they might be disappointed with their expectations.

Now, this will be more exciting as the next Bitcoin halving (a historic event wherein Bitcoin price soars up after that event) will ultimately prove or disappoint what most people expect. I personally believe the effects of incoming halving will definitely be in a greater magnitude so that I would assume that we will see Bitcoin reach a new ATH again. But I'm not so sure right now because of the current financial crisis.

If miners btc reward reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 using the same amount of electric energy and other resources, after selling at loss for a long time as 1 year, it is expected that the motivation will be low and transaction might also be slower. History showed that there might not be an instant price response and the recent pandemic may also affect investment in a space that had endured dump for that long. Since most fund in the past had always come from altcoins, I expect a steady altcoin season rise after the halving and pandemic is controlled. Investment in mining is more expensive and we have more wealthy miners that may not sell at the low price which could lead to more scarce asset, scarcity is likely to pump the price.

It is what everybody is expecting with the upcoming halving. We compare to the two halvings that happened in the past and both does have a great effect to the price of bitcoin.

Means that the next will actually affect the price greater and to the point of even more because the past two was great. There is a chance that it will surpass the past halving effect but as you have said, this is it, we will see if it's a make it or break it impact for the price.

Speculations will always happen, that is how they work and I think those are kind of the bread and butter of some of the traders because they really like to speculate and watch people make the moves they told them to do in order to make a profit. However, if we are too conservative with out predictions that would mean we may consider it going down as well and that is where I am drawing my personal line.

I think bitcoin will go up, I don't think it will be 20k neither but I think we are definitely going to see 10k and higher as well. In the end bitcoin is a great asset to have and everyone should put some aside, it is against inflation at the time of countries printing money as well so we can definitely say that bitcoin will gain value while fiat is losing its.

Even before when the year is only just starting, we could see the massive increase in the standing of Bitcoin that certainly gave hope for holders and investors to stock Bitcoin for a possible high profit. But, as the year passes by, we observed how its price go down up ton$3,500 value, lower from the end of year 2019, this could have happened because of the pandemic, no one expected for it to happen.

Even though when there is still a pandemic around the globe, I think, that many are still hype for the future of Bitcoin, mainly because of the halving and it might be just right. Impending demand from the people affected by the virus in a quarantine + the coming halving would surely be a reason to still hold Bitcoin.

Considering this is a long term thing the main idea is the minus profits of the miners that will be affecting in the long run. What people are considering the 100% affects of halving and what they imagine are different things, some people imagine it will skyrocket as soon as we move to half mining, considering we need to buy for bitcoin to increase, who the hell will buy as soon as halving happens?

However one thing is guaranteed which is miners will actually make less profit, which means they will try to increase the price, or at least hope the price increases and when that doesn't happen the worst case is they will stop selling for a while, keep the whole thing to themselves and wait for it to go up before they sell, they made enough profits already so they may hold for some time which could cause it to go up.

That was the usual market and that is what was expected this time around if the economic situation was strong but things have changed a lot in the past few months and it is eminent that we will be facing an economic crisis and how the bitcoin market will react to the recession is a big question for every bitcoin investor but if you are looking at the grand scheme of things the market will rise and all you need to do is to hold for a much longer period.

If there were no corona outbreak then we can be sure about bitcoin markets to react the same manner how it has performed on two previous halving. But, we are into deep recession world wide. People may hesitate to invest into anything rather than spending for their living. Because things may cost more than usual and job lays off may happen at every sectors. So, we need to face anything after halving.

If there will be at least a slow down in the spread of corona and if governments restore at least 60% of usual activities then we can sure about bitcoin to perform like before. Because, people may not get many other tradition investment opportunities hence bitcoin may turn as their stopper; this is very much applicable to institutional fund as well.

Hesitance would really be there since we are in the middle of pandemic and as you said where people would prioritize their living first before anything else.
We cant still conclude that there would be no significant actions in the market on upcoming halving but basing on up the current condition then we can
somewhat say that its hard to believe or hope that much when it comes to price movement.This isnt the priority as of this moment thats why
most people doesnt hope that much.

No matter the dump in price that would come before this halving the price of bitcoin will certainly rise above $8K. For this I am very optimistic about and considering the fact that stocks are going down investors are definitely going to direct some funds into the crypto market to cut down the loss in stocks with the gains that they are going to make with the upcoming bitcoin halving.

   I believe in much higher prices after halving, but not immediately! Effects on the price after halving will be
positive in long-term and that's all that should be matter for all of us. I know that some people wish to get
rich fast, and that high price will come right after halving, but I think it will take time before we see real
effects of halving on Bitcoin price!

These are ideal situation for the price of bitcoin to rally and many are expecting the price to rally like we used to see during the past halving but this time around there were many difference like we used to be in the past even before the virus pandemic but with the pandemic in full flow and the economy expected to crash hard i do not have any hope that we will see the market rallying anytime soon.

 

never knew that ,  i thought halving have a different impact but i search that again and found out that its true  . it really reduce supply  .

 i also thought burning coin are the only that can reduce the coin supply.  anyways i dont think people will buy btc on any value  . maybe there are some especially if they are rich enough  but majority are only waiting for the right moment or when btc crash   .  still the price can increase due to halving and the reasons were explained earlier     .

No. The halving does not reduce the supply. I wish people would stop repeating such a gross misunderstanding of basic economics.

The supply consists of the bitcoins available for sale. The total number of bitcoins increases until it reaches 21 million. As the total number of bitcoins increases, so does the supply.

The halving reduces the rate of this increase. The halving reduces the production.

If that is not convincing, then consider what will happen when the number of bitcoins reaches 21 million and the subsidy is 0. When the subsidy is 0, then will the supply be 0? Will there be no more bitcoins for sale?

We just have two possibilities, the first possibility bitcoin will have high price after halving with a note there are a lot of people who believes in bitcoin and they invested their money into it. Bitcoin like gold in my opinion, now bitcoin pricr is relatively stable if we compare with a few years before. There are a lot of bitcoin future that has been offered by some exchange and at least in can be reduced for the volatility issue.

The second possibility, bitcoin price will down drastically after halving event comes. Can you imagine if there is no interest from new investor and we just rely one an old investor to make bitcoin price getting hard, it will be hard. I just concern to miner, the mining difficulity will be getting hard and they will need a new mining tool to overcome it and it mean the mining cost will increase drastically. They just have two option, upgrade the mining tool and spend a lot of money or closing it.

Ok, so you have your own definition for "supply". It's confusing, but ok.


Why do you say that this supply is not high? As I mentioned before, it is always increasing.

I also don't see a dramatic increase in the price, the effect will take some time probably in the last quarter of the year, people by that time will start to realize that Bitcoin is as strong as ever and will make a big rally, also by that time we will contain the virus, this pandemic is what keeps delaying the price.

Two possible scenarios, either bitcoin has no value so people won't transact bitcoins anymore or the price rewards from transaction fee is more than enough to cover all the expenses of miners because the last bitcoin is going to be mined in the year 2140.

If you really think that the pandemic is keeping the price to rally then you need to wait for a much longer period of time, the economy will not recovery automatically and we are expecting a huge rescission in the coming months and the impact of this pandemic will be known once the virus is contained and we have no idea when that will be and then restarting all the business that are affected is another obstacle and i am expecting much bigger issues than the price of bitcoin rallying and i wont be surprised if there is no rally in the next few years.

Biggest supply is from previous holders so I agree with that important point, block reward represents expansion of the monetary base for BTC and this will be a very slight alteration on this date.    There after we see in accumulation a change to new BTC made available but by far the largest influence continues to be speculators who will sell and therefore supply the market as and when they feel price fully reflects near term value.

At present we rose above 50 day average but remain below the 200 day average.    We are at something of a top very short term because we already gained and are now in the middle of long term volume around this pricing.   I continue to be neutral in my outlook and expectations for this year maybe these events news and protocol are why but I think it was on the cards anyway, next year should develop more.

When people talk about supply they talk about one of the factors that met on the market. Supply and demand. At Bitcoin supply are all already mined coins without the ones that are forever lost ( it is hard to judge which are).

I hope you are not confusing ;)

When the miners and traders still hold their bitcoins, and they don't sell in a big amount in the exchange (means the supply at the exchange is not high), and if many people want to buy bitcoin in a large amount (means the demand at the exchange is high), then that will make the price can increase. Because in one side, people will buy bitcoin at any price, and in the other side, people don't want to sell their bitcoin at a low price, so they will still hold the bitcoin amount and waiting for the highest price.

Perhaps, but none of that has anything to do with the halving.

seen from the history of the first Bitcoin Halving and the second Bitcoin Halving have a big impact on the price of Bitcoin, but it takes time to experience an increase, not instantly, and of course must be patient. if we pay close attention to what will happen then I think the increase will occur in 2021-2022, because miners today will experience difficulties and can lose if the price of Bitcoin is still cheap, because electricity consumption from mining is not cheap and miners only get a small amount of Bitcoin. that's the logic