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Oil Price War willl Bring real War!

Oil Price Will be a lot More expensive then Now ;)


War Will start about soon...  I would Say in 7 Days.

The middle east don't rseem to have the resources for a war... I thought Iran were the only miners of it too and they're the main power over there...

As long as Russia, the US, China or the European forces don't get involved, it will probably just have an isolated effect...

Also, are the middle east not already at war? I predict them to go to war yesterday! Woooo me

Indeed. But it is likely hard to avoid interference from these countries. Oil price war will attract the attention of those big countries and they probably analyze how they can get involved. Then, we may see some drama that leads to real war. And the victim is the Middle East country itself.

It's a bit of a monopoly for the other three, hopefully Europe has the sense by now to know it's much safer to spectate than to participate (for its citizens).

And the other countries have a bit of aonopoly on ammunition, whereas we just have nuclear (lots of it but it's more of a defensive weapon afaik).

I think OPEC is there to mediate on oil issue and as far as I know, the body has been reaching out to oil nations. War is not what middle east need now but a cooperation within themselves. And now than ever before, the world needs to come together for tackle the current health challenge.

Even before this oil price war has began, there was already war in the Middle East. The war in the Middle East has been running for decades already. And you probably know why. There wouldn't have been wars in these deserts if deep underneath there is nothing. But, fortunately or unfortunately, there is so much resources underneath and this is enticing enough for powerful countries even outside the region to join the game in there.

So there is no war to start soon. It has already started many years ago. There is no point spreading a new rumor.

Nobody needs war but I fear the current situation is heading towards something even worse. If it does (and it most likely will..), a lot of people will run out of business, will become unemployed or will have to face hunger (and if banks are going to fuck us up even more as if it's not enough, say hello to the up-and-coming homeless people).

If this is going to be one of the worst crises and recessions human history has ever witnessed, then +90% of us will run out of money and resources which means we would give 0 fucks if a war begins. We'd be more like "we lost everything so there's nothing left to lose anyway".

Hopefully I'm very wrong. This is the worst scenario I'm imagining. I'd rather be hospitalized in ICU than face a war. I hope all will be slowly rebuilt with the most peace possible but I also have to be realistic.

Meanwhile, I'll stay as positive as possible and hope this is not going to turn into something violent. I'm more worried right now about the governments all around the world taking the least effective steps with so much delay, it's exactly like they're specifically delaying the measures to let more people get infected.

People have lost trust in their governments. If this entire pandemic ends with a horrific number of deaths, citizens are going to turn around their own leaders. That could turn very, very bad in no time.

The hidden war for oil always goes on. However, Russia now has so many different problems that it hardly dared to openly fight for oil. Now Russia has shown obstinacy and has not agreed to reduce oil production so that its price does not fall too much. However, after some time, Russia will be forced to agree on this with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, when they assess the possible losses.
Putin now imagines himself to be the most powerful emperor in the world, that he began to make a lot of political mistakes.

What kind of conflict are you talking about? As far as I know, OPEC countries adhere to their own plan, while Russia looks the other way and says that it is ready for this.
Everything related to oil is based on its pricing, and in no way can cause a conflict like a war.

There will be no war, one cannot just take it and say: "The name of the country, you are bad, we are flying to bomb you." Saudi Arabia, on the contrary, helps the United States with cheap oil, because with every decrease in the cost of oil by $ 10, US GDP is growing by 0.2% in annual terms.

Middle eastern countries like Saudi Arabia are not ready for great scale of war, even if they are rich in oil, still they have weapons unlike USA, Russia and china. Only it could ask for assistance to it's allied countries in case they will go to war.

Yeah right, in 7 days it will start and it will stop in the next 6  ;D
There will be no war, why should there be any war between those countries in the first place?
All their interest are aligned when it comes to oil, if they go to war between them they both lose so they will simply pump more and more oil as they have the cheapest oil and they are going to look at which of the biggest oil produces are going to crumble first.
Venezueala? Nigeria? Mexico? Rusia?

By the time the US shale runs out of funds like the Canadian oil sands, these counties would have crumbled already.

A war between the oil producers?Nope!
On the other hand, Russia and the URSS defaulted twice during a low price oil and Nigeria isn't that better, you're looking at the wrong map.

And 7 days? Lol..

Attempts to branch out into tourism and real estate in dubai reflect the middle east's desire to diversify its holdings and wealth away from oil. This offers hope for middle eastern economies not being one dimensional or reliant purely upon crude to sustain themselves. Middle eastern armies with the exception of perhaps israel are not well trained or prepared to wage war against each other. Some like iran are so poorly trained and prepared they cannot launch missiles without unfortunately shooting down their own passenger jets.

War in the middle east due to declining oil prices doesn't appear to be a good prospect. There are political divides which could ignite under the right circumstances. Although I think its unlikely that will happen soon due to declining price of oil. Which are fueled primarily by declines in global transportation, shipping and trade.

There will be no war, no one wants to go to war. Going to war in the middle of this current economic crisis will only leave more hunger and starvation besides, Iran won't be interested in any war because of having too many enemies in the gulf nations and around the world. OPEC nations that didn't save like Nigeria will go into economic recession. 

In the current situation, there can be no war for oil. Now Russia is the main aggressor on the world stage. In the context of the impending global economic crisis, she is not ready to fight against all. It just ruins her. Putin already made a mistake by refusing, together with all oil-producing countries, to reduce the level of oil production, and now Russia has suffered enormous losses. After some time, these countries will be forced to agree on joint plans for oil production. It is unlikely that another scenario will be possible.

Quite possible with the recession, the US government tried to stimulate the economy but no one is actually biting. Maybe this will start the real world war with the US backed against the wall, they will surely seek new source of money and middle east could be the first. If the stock markets continues to plummet then they may have to take action and this might be the end for fiat currencies.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) is an intergovernmental nations of 16 countries. The powerful of them all - Saudi Arabia. Let's look at some interesting statistics below,

Military budget:
Saudi Arabia - $67.6 billion
UAE - $22.7 billion
Iran - $19.6 billion
Algeria - $13 billion
Indonesia - $7.6 billion
Venezuela -  $7.45 billion
Congo - $7.15 billion
Angola - $7 billion
Qatar - $6 billion
Kuwait - $6.8 billion
Libya - $3 billion
Ecuador - $2.5 billion
Nigeria - $2.1 billion
Iraq - $1.73 billion
Gabon - $83 million
Equatorial Guinea - no info

Source: https://www.globalfirepower.com/defense-spending-budget.asp

For this reason, no one within OPEC will get into a war unless and until it is incited by some other countries outside OPEC. We need to remember, that not only Oil price is crashing. Every single market on earth is crashing and the issue is faced by every countries on earth. It's not about the oil only! Chill! no war would happen in imminent future!

The oil price competition will never come not only within the Middle East nor any country will support this war If one thing goes its alternative must be something or something that nobody wants to fight therein will hurt their country. they're going to not take part case of an economic downturn this may be fixed again in support of the new Fiat currency.

USA is exporter of oil. Price of oil barrel will go definitely sub $10. Fracking industry will get pwned. Saudis & Putin mafia rules.

Putin makes many mistakes, not because he considers himself powerful, but because he has been sitting at the head of the country for more than 20 years, and is going to sit for at least another 15 years. And he will fight for oil with all his might, because the entire economy of Russia is oil and gas production.

That's over-acting, it is impossible to have war without the government thinking what is its effect in other countries. You're just stating some false predictions, in just 7 days? It is possible if you say 10 to 15 years from now. Because it is true that the oil is being limited and that's the reason why its price goes higher but war isn't the solution for that. Government of the countries can talk about a certain issue about oil resources so it is more less likely to happen. War isn't the key when there is a conflict between two countries, there are a lot of options to solve the problem without even harming its citizen's lives. It seems like production of oil is being limited so that people will not waste it because it is a non-renewable resources and it can't be recycled to use again.

Every country needs a leader who is mentally, economically, and politically wise enough to lead his people. War is never an option during times like that, there are more possible ways on how to overcome or solve a problem related to resources. It is normal to have a problem related to the market because the budget of each country is limited and allocated to other sector like what you've said military budget. Most especially that the Covid-19 pandemic is spreading, they also allocated some funds for that so they can fight the virus. All of the countries now are having a crisis not only in oil but the healthcare sectors who are front liners in the virus. Medicines, medical equipment, and scientist to discover the antidote or vaccine requires a fund so this should be the focus of the country as of now.

So still 2 more days to go for the war? World war 3 right? :P

But is there any specific reason for your predictions or its just a trolling. :P

---

Tired of different things due to this corona outbreak.Need a break now.

Nap...ZZZZ

In international relations, there are no eternal friends and foes, only eternal interests. In the current geopolitical and geo-economic conditions, especially the United States with Trump and "American First", I think the policy taken by Putin to disagree with Saudi Arabia is rational.

The reason is that Mohammad bin Salman chose to acquire Lockheed Martin's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system instead of the one promoted by Russia after six US-made Patriot batteries battalions failed to detect drone and missile attacks at Saudi Arabia's two main oil facilities.
Source: https://insidearabia.com/playing-for-higher-stakes-saudi-arabia-gambles-on-oil-war-with-russia/

Economically, in my opinion, the decision taken by Saudi Arabia is a mistake, because Saudi Arabia only thinks about meeting short-term economic needs rather than long-term security. As for Russia First, this policy has been carefully considered because, since the fall of the last oil price, Russia has been right and strengthened its budget, thus providing great financial protection. Second, high crude oil prices will only benefit US shale oil producers, if the price of crude oil is low it will cause economic losses to the United States and damage its ability to use international coercive devices in the form of sanctions. This is related to Russian interests (ROsfnet) in Venezuela.

That is a very pessimistic outlook on reality. Think about the people, politicians are trying not to induce war, it is the reason why we still soundly. Resource war is still far-fetch idea.

Many bad impact with corona virus happen to the world where many product price going down and investment lost much money, now day we got oil world have crisis with lower price too after this cases and take many disadvantage by Corona virus, when this moment can't move soon maybe we will see many bad impact for economic world and get crisis.

After a pandemic am pretty sure people will have a hard time dealing with a war .

Most countries have already opted with more non conventional methods and at the same time research is being done based on plant based fuel .

CNG is something whose value and popularity is increasing day by day , I do think that the war will be averted and people will opt for more renewable sources of energy.

Indeed you are absolutely right, because the oil price aee getting high, and this can start a sign of war, and i think if this is gonna happen i think this is gonna be a big war let's say a WORLD WAR III, because not just two countries will fight for this because they have an alliance,

And i think this war will start in the near future.
Just keep safe everyone.

What war you are talking about, the price of oil is falling because of the decision by Saudi to increase the production and to have a control over the market, increased production means the price will go down and they wanted to compete with Russia and the US as they have the technology to produce at a much better rate and Saudi is implementing new strategy to have an upper hand in the long run. If you mean strategical war when it comes to oil price then it is true.

Economical warfare never went away, there is a war going on in Syria right now that is literally fought by tens of nations, Turkey from one place, Iran from another, Russia, Saudi Arabia, three fronts inside with regime, rebels and ISIS so there is literally a million ways that war can go, but nothing like that will happen because of Oil wars.

It will be economical and it will take a lot more to bring down these nations than just oil prices going down. Is Russia and Saudis affected by this? Sure they are, however they are not idiots neither, while we were buying oil from them and they were getting richer, they invested all of their money into global companies in every nation, if one day all oil ends in Saudi Arabia and they do not make any profits from it, they will still have billions of dollars invested spread around the world.

The fact is that due to what is happening today in the oil market, the Russian Federation will suffer the most.  Their oil, which is the most expensive to produce, will not be able to compete with oil from Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.  The Russian government will have to look for other approaches to sell its oil, since their oil and gas are the only sources for filling the state budget of the country.  Based on this, Russia can begin any military operations in those places where it sees fit, in order to obtain profitable dividends or conditions in order to force other countries to negotiate favorable terms of trade.  Modern warfare is not only bloodshed, but also an argument for doing business.  As an example, this is the United States and Iraq.

So, one week and a few more days to let the armies mobilize and...what a surprise, no war!
No increase in oil prices back to 60$, brent is still at 30$....
What happened, how could your prophecy go wrong?  ;D ;D


Invest their money in...wait...what money?
Russia gets money from oil and gas, without that, its economy is almost dead.
Look at the previous oil crisis
- oil goes to 30 from 70, the URSS collapses
- oil drops to 20, the first Russian default happens

They don't have anything but a reserve fund that would not be able to cover the impact from this, remember we're talking about a country which calls itself a global superpower, with huge natural resources and a GDP per capita that matches Romania or Malaysia...

Yes, they are idiots, they sell oil and import refined petroleum products, they even import mining machines and even the equipment for oil exploration.
Behind their entire propaganda, it's one of the most fragile economy in the world.

LE:
Edited with the right quote.

Hello my friend.  I apologize for the interference, but you were a little mistaken and expressed your opinion not on my comment, but on the comment of the person whom I addressed.  In essence, I have almost the same opinion as you regarding sources of replenishment of the state budget of the Russian Federation.  I see that the situation is getting worse all over the world, and for some countries this drop in oil prices will be catastrophic.  moreover, the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on the economies of many countries will be even more severe.

For decades the Energy Policy has served as a cornerstone of Russia's foreign policy that has a national interest in making itself a peace conflict catalyst; global counterweight; out of the grip of the US and its allies; and restore himself as a superpower. During these 5 years, Russia has successfully used its geo-economic instruments to suppress Europe by repeatedly shutting oil supplies to Europe.

In the document "Main Provision of the Russsian Energy Strategy 2020" Putin will increase oil and natural gas production with the aim of developing exports, attracting FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) into the national energy sector and for better energy transportation. and in the end, it will strengthen the utilization of its energy sources and strengthen the energy industry to develop Russian political power.

Whereas in the Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period Up to 2030, it was true that income from the energy sector was used for meet Russian financial needs in developing exploration/production of new areas. Russia is trying to maximize its potential to produce energy and advance its technology and infrastructure so that its energy industry is increasingly unmatched in the World.
http://www.energystrategy.ru/projects/docs/ES-2030_(Eng).pdf

But Shale oil has changed the map of political geo-economics, geo-strategy, and global geopolitics. Since the discovery of shale oil in 2008, it has changed the US from a long-term energy beggar to become the world's largest oil producer and the US will be one of the major players in the energy sector and have the power to regulate world oil prices and geopolitical maps of the world.

The current pandemic seems to have caused the entire country to suffer economic setbacks. with the nature of the virus that is easily spread and has caused many victims, plus no one knows when this outbreak will end. that is what causes negative thoughts in everyone and chooses to save themselves

IMO, if the oil prices plunge then the chances of war should decrease. The Saudis are able to make their multi-billion USD defense purchases, only when the oil prices are high. If the brent crude plunges below $20 per barrel and stays there for a few months, then these people would be forced to cut back on their foreign interventions (especially the invasion of neighboring Yemen).

Besides the declining demand due to the coronavirus epidemic, in my opinion, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia is only a proxy war run by the United States through MBS to tackle Russia but it seems that Russia is not afraid of the bluff of MBS instead the United States and Saudi Arabia are now doing lobbying to President Putin. Trump took the initiative to call Putin and the two agreed to hold a repeat discussion about oil prices.

The bluff done by the United States to Russia failed miserably because, there was no relaxation at all regarding Russia because Putin's main goal was not just oil but with his bargaining power, Putin wanted the United States to reduce sanctions to several Russian allies such as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. connecting Russia to Germany then the Rosneft agreement in Venezuela. In addition, Russia needs a market share captured by American shale oil back to Russia.

Now the choice is in Russia's hands, it will punish the US shale oil industry to stop or file sanctions for the United States.

And I personally don't understand how oil price could lead to the war
I mean these countries which rely on oil won't be satisfied with price and get too angry so will attack?
but thats a big loss of value to attack anyone, so I highly doubt that will happen after all

Seriously, stop watching Russian propaganda...
Russia is a gas station that is going bankrupt.

Every time oil prices took a dive, Russia was on its knees begging.
At the end of the '80s oil went down to 20, the URSS fell apart, in the '90s oil went again to 20$,  Russia went bankrupt again.

Who the hell cares about what Russia does anymore, they are done for, with 10 million extra barrels a day and this shutdown their whole bluff of letting Europe without gas and oil scares nobody and nobody who knows how Russia lies 20 times per second believes their bravery speech.
Do you know what sanctions have done to them? They have a lower average wage right now than Romania!
The biggest country in the world with tons of resources and land, the so-called global nuclear power is earning on average what an Mc Donald's burger flipper does in one week.

Reserves?
They have already flushed down the toilet in one week 30 billion trying to prob the ruble and help Rosneft, and here you have it, from their own propaganda tabloid: https://www.rt.com/business/484229-russia-forex-reserves-fall/


Seriously stop  ;D

Despite of this pandemic, there is still a possibility of a war, that is not caused by oil's price, but maybe the virus itself, I am pretty sure the other side of the infected country is also trying to investigate the possible sources of this virus, in that case, if it was proven that the virus is created as a bio weapon to attack US and other countries, then that is enough to justify that war should happen. I don't want this to happen, but with the action of both parties to help to stop this pandemic on the other hand is also a sign that there is unity and war should be taken over.

Military budgets are not really all that important during a war unless you are ahead of everyone like USA. Usually economical budget is much more important. Could there be a war with weapons and killing?

Maybe, who knows? But the real trouble here is, countries basically putting embargo against each other and not giving their oil for these prices. When one nation stops selling oil and all other nations follow, the oil price will sky rocket back to what it was. Economical warfare is a bigger possibility nowadays than actual war, even in countries in middle east they would prefer to have a war on economical sense then an actual war if they can. However if a real war breaks out, oil is waaaaay too important so there will be other first world nations who will intervene.

Well... I have a slightly differing opinion on this. The oil price is falling like a rock. The last time I checked, Brent crude was going at less than $27 per barrel, with the WTI quoting even lower. In this scenario, it looks as if the only way to get oil above $50 per barrel is by triggering a war. The Saudis need to do something about it, else they are going bankrupt in a few months.

Precisely, I don't have any idea where the author got his numbers on. Most commodities and assets right now are on a huge sump because of the stock market crash brought about by the pandemic, this caused a bunch o stocks to lose value as the day progresses. I wil find it absurd and fishy if despite the huge dump in the market, an asset such as oil becomes surprisingly expensive. It can't go high judt because you said so.

Well the answer is more than simple, the author has a very lively imagination, which can be seen from all his threads. I have already warned him not to write nonsense without any concrete facts, but he persists in his ideas - one of which is the war in the Middle East. He probably thinks that the war is financed just like that and this is something cheap - but to get a little brain involved, he might realize that at this point even the biggest fools wouldn't start the oil war - because mankind is fighting a completely different war against the virus.

Since more than two weeks have passed and there is still no war (and according to OP it should happen within 7 days from March 16) can we conclude that the OP is an ordinary troll who understands world politics to the same extent as a child understands the concept of thermal nuclear fusion?

The upper group in the economic pyramid always has a large disposable income or is not affected by lifestyle. even though expenses are rising and income decreases, disposable income remains large.

In the global arena, a country must decide which field to play in and what bargaining weapons will be used to win the competition. In the process of dealing and willing, we must have a bargaining tool if we don't have it, we must first create a road map so that we do not become victims of competition. Russia turned off its gas to Europe in order to get low prices for goods imported from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Britain. Russian wheat and wine products were bought high by Belgium and the Netherlands because of high import taxes.

Russia has chosen its grand strategy that defense and energy-based economy will be used as a tool to achieve its national interests. Putin's professional and educational background also influenced Russia's policymaking to return to being a world actor especially in near aboard and against transatlantic domination.

In an interview with Fox, Trump said his objections to the war on Russian and Saudi oil prices. "It really hurts the US energy industry. In a press statement, the White House expressed the importance of the stability of oil prices in the global energy market. Trump also said he would review sanctions previously given to Russia, which were previously given to a number of companies from the White Bear country.

Geopolitically, no country views Russia with one eye, Russia's military strength is still large and the nuclear remnants of the cold war are still owned by Russia. Maybe Russia will lose the oil war strategy but Russia gets something bigger in the future.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp

Russia never turned off the gas, if they will ever do so they can go back to eating grass.
Second, both Netherlands and Belgium are doing fine, to understand this you have to realize that the tiny country of Netherlands is exporting €94.5 billion worth of agricultural goods while total exports of Russia with oil and gas are 300 billion.
Russia is even importing caviar from Italy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/food-of-czars-made-in-italy-as-caviar-is-spared-putin-ban


You're not up to date:  ;D
Let's talk numbers:

Shale break-even point is at 35$, so the US would have to subsidize 15$ per 8 million barrels a day for 365 days.  That's 43 billion.

Russia, on the other hand, must have oil at 42$, so assuming again 20$ per barrel they lose 22$ per barrels x 10 million x 365. That's 80 billion.

But is that double? Nope, it's far worse.

US budget is 3.8 trillion, so that's 1%.
Russian budget is $326.5 billion, so that's  25%.
Who do you think would last longer?

Ps.
If you care so much about what Trump said
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-futures-pare-record-gains-as-doubts-creep-in-on-trumps-saudi-russia-output-deal-idUSKBN21K3HZ


You were saying the bluff failed? Seems like the opposite, both Saudia Arabia and Russia are on their knees.

What Putin wants to achieve is not just oil war and the cessation of US shale oil production but geopolitically there are long-term goals that Putin wants to achieve. With the oil war, finally an agreement was reached between the three parties between OPEC countries, Russia and the United States. It is not only OPEC and Russia that are reducing production but the United States will also reduce production to maintain prices.

Perhaps the oil price war hit Russia more than the United States, but it cannot be denied that this Russian strategy succeeded in making many oil drilling companies in the United States stop producing. Of course, Trump received pressure from oil businessmen in America who generally were from the republican party. If it continues like this the American oil company will only last for 3 months after it can close all. If this condition lasts 2 years the US oil industry will be permanently closed. And oil entrepreneurs in America also agree that if America does not reduce its production, oil prices will also not rise.

Although Trump reported that Putin and MBS agreed to reduce the supply of oil, but the reduction rate has not been agreed upon. In addition, Trump's pressure to resolve the drop in oil prices is very important because it will affect his popularity in the November elections. This happened when the US Secretary of State and US Senator aggressively pressured SBM to stop the oil war.

Indeed several times the plan to bring down the US oil industry has always failed, but who knows the agreement between Xi and Putin.

This phrase alone shows you have no clue what you're talking about.

The US can't reduce the output because Trump wants so!
In the US oil production is not done by state-owned companies, it's not a shitty dictatorship like Rusia or Saudia Arabia where one guy dictates everything.
If one shale company doesn't want to reduce output it won't simple as that!
Putin can dictate how many cars are allowed the road in Russia but nobody in Germany can force Mercedes to produce x amount of cars or in Italy x tons of spaghetti.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-usa-output-exclusive/exclusive-trump-does-not-plan-to-ask-u-s-oil-producers-for-coordinated-cuts-official-idUSKBN21K2SC?il=0


I've seen on some other topics that you have some sort of grudge against the US, but in this case, admit it has won again!


Pulling numbers out of your know what again, right?

With the current event happening around the globe; the spread of the corona virus that affected a growing number of countries, I don't think any country would not have the capability and time to enact a war. The war in oil have been going for quite a time but, I think this pandemic stopped it even for just months because, every country needs to focus more om the welfare of their people to survive the crisis.

By your words I could say you have some sort of grudge against Russia? Just asking :)

Wars don't do good, they just makes more grudge for future generations! I don't like wars, and I experienced several in my life. In wars mostly innocent people get hurt. In every war there are big players, and after every war some players drop from game, new ones appear, but basically for normal people it's same old, same old.
And now we see some games on this field, oil price as at lowest level in last, how many years? Why don't we have a cheaper gas on station! :) I still pay gas like I did a month ago!

Should we even talk about wars in the Middle East? They are in war there since ever, and some big players around helps them in that wars with selling them weapons! What a nice strategy, and again all we see is how some innocent people died just because they went to a market on one sunny day! Who cares, some people earn from weapons, some from oil, others have fields with opium, and business is going as usual.


Let's talk about numbers, it's always a fun part! Smiley Before I say anything I need to ask a question, can we be sure in numbers we see? Information needs to come from somewhere!
I didn't read much about this, but in a talk with one professor last week he talked about these numbers. So his is an educated person, he reads and follows what is happening around the globe, and he told me about different numbers. I can't remember exact numbers, but the point is that US share break is more expensive. So what is true! Too many sides

Personally I believe we are being manipulated! So I don't trust any government, for me all of them are one same shit! And they make wars to make profit, I understand that war, but what I don't understand is how ordinary and normal people start wars between themselves based on manipulated information's!?

How can we talk about some kind of war? After all, people die. We can’t think that something happened to our family, then why do we talk so cynically about it...
I have a feeling that we don’t understand that war is not just news statistics.

Do you see me wanting Russia and Saudi Arabia to go bankrupt as others want?
No, I'm simply stating a fact, and one fact is that Russia is back peddling 100 mph.

From them joining the price war and increasing production by 500k barrels they went to: "it's not the right time to do it" and then by actually decreasing production in April by a 100k since there is nobody who wants their oil, even at a discount.


Ask your government how much in gas price is the oil and how much tax.
Here even with taxes that make 50% of the price it has fallen from 1.21 euros to 1.02 per liter.
Watching graphs and statistics I can't actually find any country here price hasn't dropped in the first trimester of the year.

Since your second post on this forum is on the Serbian board, can you explain this?
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Serbia/gasoline_prices/
I see a 10% drop in the last month...


Oh, let's bring the conspiracy theories.
You know from a friend of your aunt's neighbor who saw a guy that looked like a friend of a guy that went to a movie with a colleague of a professor that knows those numbers are fake....

Ok, let's make shale as expensive as it can get and make the price at 0$ per barrel. right?
So the US government would have to subsidize 60$ per barrel, 600 million each day, it's still only 219 billion, and only 5% of their budget.

Sorry but this the truth and deal with it, every major oil exporter is going to feel the pain a hundred times worse than the US,  be it Russia Saudi Arabia, even Norway, and Canada, it's not about love or hate, it's about facts and numbers!

I dont think that middle east will have money fofr war after such a big oil price drop

Stompix I can deal with the truth, it's not a problem for me! I just don't know what is truth and what's not! :)
Don't get me wrong, I don't wish to bring conspiracy theories, I was honest and wrote my source, I didn't do my own research. Point was that I heard different numbers, and asked how can someone like me be sure which ones are accurate.

I just checked the price of gas in Serbia. I get my paycheck every 15 in the month, the last time I bought gas! The prices went down a week after, 03.23.! But as I see it's a bit less than 10%. And yes I know that my country have high tax rates on gas! Tax is higher than gas.

Bottom line: This war will hurt Russia in short or long run, and of course some other countries that depend on oil. They started this oil war, so it's likely they will cut one of their hands, but they are either not aware of they are, but it will be ok if some others lose some limbs too!

If the war will not escalate that much like the big countries will not participate in their war if it will happen then we have nothing to worry about it. Though it can effect the oil price but I am sure that big countries will find a way in order to either limit the damage of their war or put a sanction to their countries so they will be force to stop the war.

But let's just hope that it will not happen so we can live a peaceful life especially that we are currently facing a pandemic as of this moment, it will be a big burden if war will follow even if the pandemic is still there.

Let's hope it doesn't go too further ahead because they do have a lot of money and a lot of people who are willing to die as well because that is their homeland and some people who are willing to just run away which in return all of it will cause a destabilization. Look at Syria right now for example, there was one thing that happened which was bad, which lead to something else that was worse and that all snowballed into a whole nation basically being horrible and millions of people all moving to different nations instead of staying at home.

If the big Arabic nations all go to war with each other, that may cause even more people to run away, we are talking about 10+ million people who live in different nations. That is not something that could be sustained, the current Syrian refugee situation is hard work as it is, with 10+ million people coming the same way would ruin all nations economies.

I think the big countries will not damage the oil fields in their war, in a war of course it will cost a lot, if the oil fields are destroyed it will damage what they stand for. therefore other routes are needed to keep control of the oil field, but not cause damage. we can see what happened yesterday that did not cause a big war

It’s an economy and it wouldn’t get pass that, I don’t really think that this is going to lead to a war where these countries will start firing missiles at each other lol. But the question is , where are these countries really heading to? One thing for sure is that if they should continue this oil war they are just going to keep killing their economies.

Russia and Saudi Arabia has been the two countries that has triggered this oil, and it all started during this time the coronavirus outbreak started, and it’s part of the reason why the stock market crashed (I don’t know if should say it’s part of what lead to BTC crash as well :-X). Russia is just trying to inflict pain on US shale producers due to the sanction that was imposed on them.

I wonder what Norway is doing during all this time, we all know they are a very social democratic country and everyone loves places in Scandinavian and so forth, they are always talked about as the perfect government to rule a nation and loved all around the world but lets not forget that Norway makes a lot of money from Oil as well.

Surely they are not oligarchy like Russia or they are not ruled like Arabic nations, so their Oil is actually going towards helping everyone equally to make the country a better place, but when something like Oil price fall happens maybe they are affected as well?

I really don't know what the situation is there right now and how the economy is doing there, with corona out as well and price of Oil down, how are they handling? Anyone knows?

Do you know the fable of The Ant and the Grasshopper?
Here is Norway:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_Norway

Basically they have 5 times their annual budget in reserves.
Add another 70 billion in forex reserves, and the fact that they have only around 35% debt to GDP ratio, the fact that only 50% of their exports are oil-related so in case of a price war they will be the last economy to crumble, probably outliving even the Vatican.


So they did go down, but a day ago you said you were paying the same.
Now, answer me a question, after this, how much trust can I put in any info you provide?  :D

With me it's easy, when I say I'm sure in something you can definitely trust me! When I'm not sure I never say that I am! And for the record I am sure in just few things!
Even this time I said it's my mistake, I'm not embarrassed to say that I am wrong, or that I made a mistake. I didn't claim that my information is accurate, whenever it's possible I share a source.
This is a short part about me in general, but how much can you trust me and in info I provide is up to you, and how much you know me. But I am a little guy, here is question about governments, corporations, entire media circus...and all others who use information for control, making money, for making all kind of wars, etc...

Did anyone noticed that the Brent Crude is remaining above $30 per barrel for the past few days? A week ago, many of the analysts were predicting that it will fall below the $20 per barrel level. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is also staying above $25 per barrel. And this presents a very tricky situation. The vast majority of the shale oil companies in the United States will remain profitable at $20-25 levels. So if the prices remain at this level, then the primary aim of Saudi Arabia (the destruction of American shale oil business) may not be achieved.

These days the price of Oil and petroleum in my country is really Low because of this Pandemic people don't really use such now and the company needs to lower their prices to compete .
yups they cannot afford to make a war now,they will either spend the Money for their people and economy or just Hold for future use as they are really facing bad times now.

I have not really understood myself on the reason that the crude oil price has dropped to an extent during this covid-19 time. I'm thinking maybe demand has dropped and that is having effect on supply therefore, production is not going on as such. I don't know if my simple analysis is close to one reason because I understand that social distancing would not allow for movement and at least usage will drop in transport.

Well.. initial trigger was not the COVID 19 outbreak.

In March, talks for supply cuts between OPEC (led by Saudi Arabia) and Russia failed and both the sides announced that they'll be lifting the upper limits for oil production and will pump as much crude as they can. Saudi Arabia in particular claimed that they will increase the production by at least 2 million barrels per day. This caused the initial slump.

During the last week of March, lockdowns were imposed in many countries and this resulted in a sharp drop in crude oil demand. For example, the demand from Italy went down by 85%. And obviously, the crude oil prices fell like a stone.

We here now again your accurate predict ons

Wars over natural resources occur periodically and quite regularly. Recently, we have witnessed increased military tension between Venezuela and Guyana, essentially due to the discovery of large natural oil reserves in Guyana. But due to dramatic climate change, wars may also intensify over the availability of fresh water, fertile soil and even food, if humanity does not quickly address the looming threat.