Oil price War will Bring real War soon in Middle east

[el kaka22]

Military budgets are not really all that important during a war unless you are ahead of everyone like USA. Usually economical budget is much more important. Could there be a war with weapons and killing?

Maybe, who knows? But the real trouble here is, countries basically putting embargo against each other and not giving their oil for these prices. When one nation stops selling oil and all other nations follow, the oil price will sky rocket back to what it was. Economical warfare is a bigger possibility nowadays than actual war, even in countries in middle east they would prefer to have a war on economical sense then an actual war if they can. However if a real war breaks out, oil is waaaaay too important so there will be other first world nations who will intervene.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Well... I have a slightly differing opinion on this. The oil price is falling like a rock. The last time I checked, Brent crude was going at less than $27 per barrel, with the WTI quoting even lower. In this scenario, it looks as if the only way to get oil above $50 per barrel is by triggering a war. The Saudis need to do something about it, else they are going bankrupt in a few months.

[Twentyonepaylots]

Well... I have a slightly differing opinion on this. The oil price is falling like a rock. The last time I checked, Brent crude was going at less than $27 per barrel, with the WTI quoting even lower. In this scenario, it looks as if the only way to get oil above $50 per barrel is by triggering a war. The Saudis need to do something about it, else they are going bankrupt in a few months.

Precisely, I don't have any idea where the author got his numbers on. Most commodities and assets right now are on a huge sump because of the stock market crash brought about by the pandemic, this caused a bunch o stocks to lose value as the day progresses. I wil find it absurd and fishy if despite the huge dump in the market, an asset such as oil becomes surprisingly expensive. It can't go high judt because you said so.

[Lucius]

Precisely, I don't have any idea where the author got his numbers on.

Well the answer is more than simple, the author has a very lively imagination, which can be seen from all his threads. I have already warned him not to write nonsense without any concrete facts, but he persists in his ideas - one of which is the war in the Middle East. He probably thinks that the war is financed just like that and this is something cheap - but to get a little brain involved, he might realize that at this point even the biggest fools wouldn't start the oil war - because mankind is fighting a completely different war against the virus.

Since more than two weeks have passed and there is still no war (and according to OP it should happen within 7 days from March 16) can we conclude that the OP is an ordinary troll who understands world politics to the same extent as a child understands the concept of thermal nuclear fusion?

[abhiseshakana]

Seriously, stop watching Russian propaganda...
Russia is a gas station that is going bankrupt.

Every time oil prices took a dive, Russia was on its knees begging.
At the end of the '80s oil went down to 20, the URSS fell apart, in the '90s oil went again to 20$,  Russia went bankrupt again.

Who the hell cares about what Russia does anymore, they are done for, with 10 million extra barrels a day and this shutdown their whole bluff of letting Europe without gas and oil scares nobody and nobody who knows how Russia lies 20 times per second believes their bravery speech.
Do you know what sanctions have done to them? They have a lower average wage right now than Romania!
The biggest country in the world with tons of resources and land, the so-called global nuclear power is earning on average what an Mc Donald's burger flipper does in one week.

Reserves?
They have already flushed down the toilet in one week 30 billion trying to prob the ruble and help Rosneft, and here you have it, from their own propaganda tabloid: https://www.rt.com/business/484229-russia-forex-reserves-fall/

The upper group in the economic pyramid always has a large disposable income or is not affected by lifestyle. even though expenses are rising and income decreases, disposable income remains large.

In the global arena, a country must decide which field to play in and what bargaining weapons will be used to win the competition. In the process of dealing and willing, we must have a bargaining tool if we don't have it, we must first create a road map so that we do not become victims of competition. Russia turned off its gas to Europe in order to get low prices for goods imported from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Britain. Russian wheat and wine products were bought high by Belgium and the Netherlands because of high import taxes.

Russia has chosen its grand strategy that defense and energy-based economy will be used as a tool to achieve its national interests. Putin's professional and educational background also influenced Russia's policymaking to return to being a world actor especially in near aboard and against transatlantic domination.

In an interview with Fox, Trump said his objections to the war on Russian and Saudi oil prices. "It really hurts the US energy industry. In a press statement, the White House expressed the importance of the stability of oil prices in the global energy market. Trump also said he would review sanctions previously given to Russia, which were previously given to a number of companies from the White Bear country.

Geopolitically, no country views Russia with one eye, Russia's military strength is still large and the nuclear remnants of the cold war are still owned by Russia. Maybe Russia will lose the oil war strategy but Russia gets something bigger in the future.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp

[stompix]

~

Russia turned off its gas to Europe in order to get low prices for goods imported from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Britain. Russian wheat and wine products were bought high by Belgium and the Netherlands because of high import taxes.

Russia never turned off the gas, if they will ever do so they can go back to eating grass.
Second, both Netherlands and Belgium are doing fine, to understand this you have to realize that the tiny country of Netherlands is exporting €94.5 billion worth of agricultural goods while total exports of Russia with oil and gas are 300 billion.
Russia is even importing caviar from Italy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/food-of-czars-made-in-italy-as-caviar-is-spared-putin-ban

In an interview with Fox, Trump said his objections to the war on Russian and Saudi oil prices. "It really hurts the US energy industry. In a press statement, the White House expressed the importance of the stability of oil prices in the global energy market. Trump also said he would review sanctions previously given to Russia, which were previously given to a number of companies from the White Bear country.

You're not up to date:  
Let's talk numbers:

Shale break-even point is at 35$, so the US would have to subsidize 15$ per 8 million barrels a day for 365 days.  That's 43 billion.

Russia, on the other hand, must have oil at 42$, so assuming again 20$ per barrel they lose 22$ per barrels x 10 million x 365. That's 80 billion.

But is that double? Nope, it's far worse.

US budget is 3.8 trillion, so that's 1%.
Russian budget is $326.5 billion, so that's  25%.
Who do you think would last longer?

Ps.
If you care so much about what Trump said
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-futures-pare-record-gains-as-doubts-creep-in-on-trumps-saudi-russia-output-deal-idUSKBN21K3HZ

The sharp rebound from weeks of losses came after U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia and Saudi Arabia will negotiate to end a price war that slashed prices last month by more than half. Trump said the United States has not agreed to cut its output.

You were saying the bluff failed? Seems like the opposite, both Saudia Arabia and Russia are on their knees.

[abhiseshakana]

What Putin wants to achieve is not just oil war and the cessation of US shale oil production but geopolitically there are long-term goals that Putin wants to achieve. With the oil war, finally an agreement was reached between the three parties between OPEC countries, Russia and the United States. It is not only OPEC and Russia that are reducing production but the United States will also reduce production to maintain prices.

Perhaps the oil price war hit Russia more than the United States, but it cannot be denied that this Russian strategy succeeded in making many oil drilling companies in the United States stop producing. Of course, Trump received pressure from oil businessmen in America who generally were from the republican party. If it continues like this the American oil company will only last for 3 months after it can close all. If this condition lasts 2 years the US oil industry will be permanently closed. And oil entrepreneurs in America also agree that if America does not reduce its production, oil prices will also not rise.

Although Trump reported that Putin and MBS agreed to reduce the supply of oil, but the reduction rate has not been agreed upon. In addition, Trump's pressure to resolve the drop in oil prices is very important because it will affect his popularity in the November elections. This happened when the US Secretary of State and US Senator aggressively pressured SBM to stop the oil war.

Indeed several times the plan to bring down the US oil industry has always failed, but who knows the agreement between Xi and Putin.

[stompix]

It is not only OPEC and Russia that are reducing production but the United States will also reduce production to maintain prices.

This phrase alone shows you have no clue what you're talking about.

The US can't reduce the output because Trump wants so!
In the US oil production is not done by state-owned companies, it's not a shitty dictatorship like Rusia or Saudia Arabia where one guy dictates everything.
If one shale company doesn't want to reduce output it won't simple as that!
Putin can dictate how many cars are allowed the road in Russia but nobody in Germany can force Mercedes to produce x amount of cars or in Italy x tons of spaghetti.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-usa-output-exclusive/exclusive-trump-does-not-plan-to-ask-u-s-oil-producers-for-coordinated-cuts-official-idUSKBN21K2SC?il=0

The United States will not ask U.S. domestic oil companies for a coordinated cut in production to counter a historic meltdown in global prices and is still awaiting the details of planned cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, a senior administration official told Reuters on Thursday.

I've seen on some other topics that you have some sort of grudge against the US, but in this case, admit it has won again!

If it continues like this the American oil company will only last for 3 months after it can close all. If this condition lasts 2 years the US oil industry will be permanently closed.

Pulling numbers out of your know what again, right?

[criza]

With the current event happening around the globe; the spread of the corona virus that affected a growing number of countries, I don't think any country would not have the capability and time to enact a war. The war in oil have been going for quite a time but, I think this pandemic stopped it even for just months because, every country needs to focus more om the welfare of their people to survive the crisis.

[iv4n]

I've seen on some other topics that you have some sort of grudge against the US, but in this case, admit it has won again!

By your words I could say you have some sort of grudge against Russia? Just asking

Wars don't do good, they just makes more grudge for future generations! I don't like wars, and I experienced several in my life. In wars mostly innocent people get hurt. In every war there are big players, and after every war some players drop from game, new ones appear, but basically for normal people it's same old, same old.
And now we see some games on this field, oil price as at lowest level in last, how many years? Why don't we have a cheaper gas on station! I still pay gas like I did a month ago!

Should we even talk about wars in the Middle East? They are in war there since ever, and some big players around helps them in that wars with selling them weapons! What a nice strategy, and again all we see is how some innocent people died just because they went to a market on one sunny day! Who cares, some people earn from weapons, some from oil, others have fields with opium, and business is going as usual.

US budget is 3.8 trillion, so that's 1%.
Russian budget is $326.5 billion, so that's  25%.
Who do you think would last longer?

Let's talk about numbers, it's always a fun part! Smiley Before I say anything I need to ask a question, can we be sure in numbers we see? Information needs to come from somewhere!
I didn't read much about this, but in a talk with one professor last week he talked about these numbers. So his is an educated person, he reads and follows what is happening around the globe, and he told me about different numbers. I can't remember exact numbers, but the point is that US share break is more expensive. So what is true! Too many sides

Personally I believe we are being manipulated! So I don't trust any government, for me all of them are one same shit! And they make wars to make profit, I understand that war, but what I don't understand is how ordinary and normal people start wars between themselves based on manipulated information's!?

[Monteja]

How can we talk about some kind of war? After all, people die. We can’t think that something happened to our family, then why do we talk so cynically about it...
I have a feeling that we don’t understand that war is not just news statistics.

[stompix]

I've seen on some other topics that you have some sort of grudge against the US, but in this case, admit it has won again!

By your words I could say you have some sort of grudge against Russia? Just asking

Do you see me wanting Russia and Saudi Arabia to go bankrupt as others want?
No, I'm simply stating a fact, and one fact is that Russia is back peddling 100 mph.

From them joining the price war and increasing production by 500k barrels they went to: "it's not the right time to do it" and then by actually decreasing production in April by a 100k since there is nobody who wants their oil, even at a discount.

And now we see some games on this field, oil price as at lowest level in last, how many years? Why don't we have a cheaper gas on station! I still pay gas like I did a month ago!

Ask your government how much in gas price is the oil and how much tax.
Here even with taxes that make 50% of the price it has fallen from 1.21 euros to 1.02 per liter.
Watching graphs and statistics I can't actually find any country here price hasn't dropped in the first trimester of the year.

Since your second post on this forum is on the Serbian board, can you explain this?
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Serbia/gasoline_prices/
I see a 10% drop in the last month...

Let's talk about numbers, it's always a fun part! Smiley Before I say anything I need to ask a question, can we be sure in numbers we see? Information needs to come from somewhere!
I didn't read much about this, but in a talk with one professor last week he talked about these numbers. So his is an educated person, he reads and follows what is happening around the globe, and he told me about different numbers. I can't remember exact numbers, but the point is that US share break is more expensive. So what is true! Too many sides

Oh, let's bring the conspiracy theories.
You know from a friend of your aunt's neighbor who saw a guy that looked like a friend of a guy that went to a movie with a colleague of a professor that knows those numbers are fake....

Ok, let's make shale as expensive as it can get and make the price at 0$ per barrel. right?
So the US government would have to subsidize 60$ per barrel, 600 million each day, it's still only 219 billion, and only 5% of their budget.

Sorry but this the truth and deal with it, every major oil exporter is going to feel the pain a hundred times worse than the US,  be it Russia Saudi Arabia, even Norway, and Canada, it's not about love or hate, it's about facts and numbers!

[DraGonD]

I dont think that middle east will have money fofr war after such a big oil price drop

[iv4n]

Sorry but this the truth and deal with it.

Stompix I can deal with the truth, it's not a problem for me! I just don't know what is truth and what's not!
Don't get me wrong, I don't wish to bring conspiracy theories, I was honest and wrote my source, I didn't do my own research. Point was that I heard different numbers, and asked how can someone like me be sure which ones are accurate.

I just checked the price of gas in Serbia. I get my paycheck every 15 in the month, the last time I bought gas! The prices went down a week after, 03.23.! But as I see it's a bit less than 10%. And yes I know that my country have high tax rates on gas! Tax is higher than gas.

Bottom line: This war will hurt Russia in short or long run, and of course some other countries that depend on oil. They started this oil war, so it's likely they will cut one of their hands, but they are either not aware of they are, but it will be ok if some others lose some limbs too!

[BlackFor3st]

Oil Price War willl Bring real War!

Oil Price Will be a lot More expensive then Now


War Will start about soon...  I would Say in 7 Days.

If the war will not escalate that much like the big countries will not participate in their war if it will happen then we have nothing to worry about it. Though it can effect the oil price but I am sure that big countries will find a way in order to either limit the damage of their war or put a sanction to their countries so they will be force to stop the war.

But let's just hope that it will not happen so we can live a peaceful life especially that we are currently facing a pandemic as of this moment, it will be a big burden if war will follow even if the pandemic is still there.

[RealMalatesta]

Let's hope it doesn't go too further ahead because they do have a lot of money and a lot of people who are willing to die as well because that is their homeland and some people who are willing to just run away which in return all of it will cause a destabilization. Look at Syria right now for example, there was one thing that happened which was bad, which lead to something else that was worse and that all snowballed into a whole nation basically being horrible and millions of people all moving to different nations instead of staying at home.

If the big Arabic nations all go to war with each other, that may cause even more people to run away, we are talking about 10+ million people who live in different nations. That is not something that could be sustained, the current Syrian refugee situation is hard work as it is, with 10+ million people coming the same way would ruin all nations economies.

[Xampeuu]

Oil Price War willl Bring real War!

Oil Price Will be a lot More expensive then Now


War Will start about soon...  I would Say in 7 Days.

If the war will not escalate that much like the big countries will not participate in their war if it will happen then we have nothing to worry about it. Though it can effect the oil price but I am sure that big countries will find a way in order to either limit the damage of their war or put a sanction to their countries so they will be force to stop the war.

But let's just hope that it will not happen so we can live a peaceful life especially that we are currently facing a pandemic as of this moment, it will be a big burden if war will follow even if the pandemic is still there.

I think the big countries will not damage the oil fields in their war, in a war of course it will cost a lot, if the oil fields are destroyed it will damage what they stand for. therefore other routes are needed to keep control of the oil field, but not cause damage. we can see what happened yesterday that did not cause a big war

[bitgolden]

Oil Price War willl Bring real War!

Oil Price Will be a lot More expensive then Now


War Will start about soon...  I would Say in 7 Days.

It’s an economy and it wouldn’t get pass that, I don’t really think that this is going to lead to a war where these countries will start firing missiles at each other lol. But the question is , where are these countries really heading to? One thing for sure is that if they should continue this oil war they are just going to keep killing their economies.

Russia and Saudi Arabia has been the two countries that has triggered this oil, and it all started during this time the coronavirus outbreak started, and it’s part of the reason why the stock market crashed (I don’t know if should say it’s part of what lead to BTC crash as well ). Russia is just trying to inflict pain on US shale producers due to the sanction that was imposed on them.

[redsun114]

I wonder what Norway is doing during all this time, we all know they are a very social democratic country and everyone loves places in Scandinavian and so forth, they are always talked about as the perfect government to rule a nation and loved all around the world but lets not forget that Norway makes a lot of money from Oil as well.

Surely they are not oligarchy like Russia or they are not ruled like Arabic nations, so their Oil is actually going towards helping everyone equally to make the country a better place, but when something like Oil price fall happens maybe they are affected as well?

I really don't know what the situation is there right now and how the economy is doing there, with corona out as well and price of Oil down, how are they handling? Anyone knows?

[stompix]

I really don't know what the situation is there right now and how the economy is doing there, with corona out as well and price of Oil down, how are they handling? Anyone knows?

Do you know the fable of The Ant and the Grasshopper?
Here is Norway:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_Norway

It has over US$1 trillion in assets, including 1.4% of global stocks and shares, making it the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund.[1][2] In May 2018 it was worth about $195,000 per Norwegian citizen.

Basically they have 5 times their annual budget in reserves.
Add another 70 billion in forex reserves, and the fact that they have only around 35% debt to GDP ratio, the fact that only 50% of their exports are oil-related so in case of a price war they will be the last economy to crumble, probably outliving even the Vatican.

The prices went down a week after, 03.23.! But as I see it's a bit less than 10%. And yes I know that my country have high tax rates on gas! Tax is higher than gas.

So they did go down, but a day ago you said you were paying the same.
Now, answer me a question, after this, how much trust can I put in any info you provide?