Bitcoin Forum

I believe in a normal Financial Crisis, Bitcoin would have fared better, but we are dealing with something that is being treated as much larger, which is a global pandemic. In 2008 people didn't hoard groceries, hoard supplies, get locked inside of their houses, have their livelihood shut down etc. This is not just a financial crisis, this is something different. There is real fear among many people that things will continue to get much worse and dangerous for a very long period of time. Bitcoin was never meant to be a hedge against a global pandemic. Gold is suffering the same fate as well, Gold is not a hedge against a Global Pandemic either. Once when the fear of the Global Pandemic absolves, Bitcoin will continue on its way toward what it is meant to achieve.

Speculative financial assets never perform well in a falling market. This is the first bear market Bitcoin has seen and I think it’s performing exactly as expected.

Good point and just what I'd been arguing with a long time ago with friends. I mean, I love bitcoin and I think it's a hedge against all things fiat. But this coronavirus is a doomsday scenario, which is also what I was arguing about, that if some big event hits the whole world and people need to SURVIVE, bitcoin will do as badly as fiat and stocks etc.

BUT stocks and fiat will DIE if things get 10 times worse than they are today. Bitcoin will actually survive.

It is what we're waiting for. Whoever has the patience on these times, will reap later on. We can't deny that the global pandemic that we're dealing with is somehow correlated with bitcoin's correction.

I'm pretty much looking at the brighter side of the number of patients that have been recovered and this shows hope not just on the health sector but to the financial sector too. Soon, things will calm and the market will recover.

People usually elaborate minor issues and create unnecessary panic when there is none. With all that is going on, I'm not surprised to see the price of Bitcoin go this way. And with it recent price, I still believe it's doing good. I was actually thinking the price will go below what we have now.

Nevertheless, I believe the price will soon rise again but then, many won't be able to purchase it then.

It's the "AAAHHHH ITS THE END OF THE WORLD.... THE APOCALYPSE !!!!!"  people that want to protect all their material possessions.
They are by definition the weak hands, and are more focused on having enough TP to last to the end of times.

The strong hands have been buying Bitcoin or other crypto. I think I got some at a good price.
In about 6 months this will pay off big IMO. (Or we all died from corona, but you can't take money with you into death)

I strongly believe that once corona has died down any investment (ANY INVESTMENT) should yield atleast 100% profit.
Current market is pure mortal fear....

Is this hedging against a pandemic? No this is just taking advantage of a good stock market swing  8)

Good point but I was expecting something else, maybe I was delusional but I was really thinking that bitcoin will grow in times like this, but now I am convince that its too early, bitcoin is not that strong in worst market situation like what we are witnessing now, its too risky, maybe in the future?

It acted exactly how I expected all along.

If it were being used as a form of money by a large enough number of people that would make it a very different proposition in terms of resilience to something that's pure speculation. I'm not sure it'll ever reach that phase in our lifetimes.

As for global panic, that can't be kept up forever. Even if things fundamentally change for several months people eventually normalise and adapt long before the actual problem is solved.

In these times people look to what they need.
- TP
- Canned food
- Fuel
- Water
- Medicine
- Hygienic products
- Clothing

You simply cannot eat bitcoin or dollar bills...

The bulltard cult is already trying all kind of excuses for the failure of bitcoin as a store of value.

Gold dropped 10%, bitcoin dropped 60%.
There is not much to be said here. The source of it was already identified: 2000% leverage with derivatives on Bitmex, which in this forum is seemed as something "normal", but didn't exist during the 2013-2015 crashes. Gold only crashed in this crisis because it also have derivatives, but with circuit breakers, hence the difference in drops.

This means bitcoin now is a casino, not a currency and much less a store of value. This is the result of many years of brainwashing from the "hodl cult", which dont want bitcoin to succeed as a currency, or as a store of value. They want you to buy and "hodl" for 200 years while they place their bets and made tons of fiat paper money. Dont fall for their lies.

It's still much higher than last winter despite the pandemic. Pretty good, no?

I think you have this idea of here:

https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1239255301171314689

and here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5233245.0

   
Tyler Winklevoss said that
and I totally agree, this situation is about health and life, it's not just a financial crisis, and every market is suffering, there´s no reason to blame BTC and cryptos, we just have to wait, it´s a few weeks until world get back to normal

But this pandemic do good to the crypto market in my option, many people may get to know about cryptocurrencies since people were encouraged to use digital transactions for every purchase so it is possible to stop spreading the virus.And we are stable now at $5000 to 5500 region while other assets are still falling so wait for some big eyes to find cryptos as an better investment.

bitcoin was never a store of value. how could it be? it is a beta software released in 2009. this is the definition of speculative.

bitcoin could be a store of value similar to gold many years from now---but first comes adoption and usage/trust over time. you (and anyone else clinging to the store of value status) are putting the cart before the horse.

And this wasn't really obvious to most people in Bitcoin community, we so often saw here posts about economic problems in the world and how it's supposed to be good for Bitcoin, some I think were even hoping for a new crisis to come sooner to boost Bitcoin, I'm sure this crash was eye-opening to many.

But I don't think that Bitcoin will have to perform poorly if the stock market will be only moderately bearish, Bitcoin still can recover and continue going up a bit later this year without any special reason.

Looking right now at the stock markets, are there any large cap stocks which are actually a good deal? I looked at the blue chips like Apple, Facebook, Amazon and they are pretty much where they were back in 2017 and 2017 was already an over-extended bull market. Maybe bitcoin can yield 100% profit but for most stocks, at these prices, I think they won't yield much profit in the near future (1 year or so).

2008 was different. I remember stocks like Apple were very cheap back then like $11 or so. And it probably took Apple less than 1 year to hit a new ATH. Apple peaked at almost $30 and its bottom was almost $10, so basically 33% from ATH. Currently if you look its peak was $328 and $240 is current price so about 75% from its ATH price. Basically has a long way to go for it to be a steal of a deal. Only good stocks right now are oil stocks and airline stocks. However those are more risky since a few of those can go bankrupt or go nationalized like GM did back in 2010.

Sure it is. The market just has not digested that BTC can't be seized, but cash, shares, gold, your food can be. When the market realises this they will all in on BTC.

The fiat market has just treated BTC as "another" asset.

I guess not but it was also not supporting it neither was it. Bitcoin and gold is usually seen as store of value. What does that mean? When all else falls these things have a limited supply so price of gold and bitcoin should either stay still or go up because dollars and stocks and many other things go down and they are less valuable so when they are less valuable these limited supply commodities should be going up but they are not.

So in theory, bitcoin was a hedge against a global pandemic, not really directly because it is not a medicine after all but it was created with the idea that when all else fails bitcoin should stay, just like gold does, however this time around even gold couldn't handle it so this is just a way different scenario than whatever we have seen in history.

But the problem is that there are no merchants that are going to accept bitcoin as payment even at this time, so what good does crypto can be in a pandemic that we have seen right now? So yes, it wasn't design to be a hedge against global pandemic, and the cover-19 incident was a testament to it.

These blue chips are on my watch list. More blood than the indices but strong companies with very reliable returns over decades:

• Stanley Black & Decker
• General Dynamics Corporation
• UMB Financial Corp
• Cullen/Frost Bankers

I don't like to catch knives though. I'm watching and waiting. If this is 1987, we are close to bargain basement prices. If this is 2008, we've still got a ways to go.

In my country, in 2008 the same situation was going on but not on those levels.
Bitcoin has the same fortune as Gold, and the rest financial markets. They are on the same category but they have different usage and value.
It is normal to see the price soaring in situations like this one with COVID-19.

I really hope that its not true but I heard that all these stocks going down, bitcoin going down, gold going down all of the things going down was because there was a lot of people who wanted to have cash and they went ahead and bought stocks of many things to store at home in order to not get out.

Now, it is not a horrible idea because we have a pandemic in our hands that is growing exponentially and that is horrible, however at the same time being in cash will not help you neither, whatever you need to spend that is understandable and spend but we have dropped billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars as a whole economy, we can't just say we had all of that spent on some grocery stores, I won't believe that, some people must be staying in cash, waiting probably.

We have yet to see Bitcoin in a real financial crisis to confirm that it can really be a hedge against all the financial chaos or be a safe haven against losses. Just to clarify Bitcoin was never tested in a financial crisis, it was only born during that time and was never tested with the current price we have. During around that time Bitcoin literally is valueless to a lot of people with a very few demand so really comparing it to the price movements we have now is extremely irrelevant or rather invalid. So what we have seen as of right now is Bitcoin have failed in a pandemic but we haven't seen it thrive in a financial crisis and we have yet to see it, though I believe this will still have the same effect no matter what economic problem we have as long as involves the whole world panicking and needing money.

I believe the bigger the crisis, the better for Bitcoin. After bank-runs, bankruptcies, legacy financial markets closures, the honey badger don't care. Hedge well, and HODL.

Gold is a hedge against a global recession,not against global pandemic.We all get that.There's no need for you to explain it.
Can we please stop with the whining about Bitcoin not being a hedge/safe heaven in falling economy?
It's been several days and the Bitcoin price is just fine at around 6,4K USD(it's even going close to 6,7K USD right now,but this might be temporary).There is no panic selling,no "nosedive" price fall.Whining about bearish market,price drops and market crashes is pointless and doesn't add anything to the discussion.

I think the same, every crisis will lead people to crypto. It's pointless to discuss this crisis, manipulations, control imposing, simply said this it's not fair! It's not fair for 70%, or more, world population. Most people don't have a choice really. Here is where blockchain gets in, it offers alternative, more fair system, where information is in chain and can't be changed or manipulated with. Every man, or woman, disappointed in current system will join crypto.

It depends on the type of crisis. In a purely economic crisis, pretty much everything falls in price against fiat money, as BTC (and even gold) already showed in the recent crash. It's only in a currency crisis, where society needs to exit the prevailing currency all at once, where the opposite will happen.

I do expect that will happen someday but I don't think that day is here.

The global pandemic/hysteria is causing a global recession, what is so hard to understand?
Gold is not a hedge anymore because it was submitted to derivatives speculation. You can store gold as much as you want, next financial crisis will make its price drops as anything else.
Bitcoin was meant to be different. Unfortunatelly, not anymore. We are all on the same board with the fiat system. Any global recession will bring everything down, including bitcoin.

Maybe a few months or years down the line. Even then that's debatable. But I would prefer the same number of months or years of smooth running instead.

What Bitcoin still needs more than anything is more education. People tend not to look to the new and unproven when everything is going tits up. This isn't a blip or a shock, millions are looking at full on ruin.

Despite the price not directly affected by the pandemic, people might've panic sell at the dump that happened.

As the days went by, we regain the price and that doesn't really mean it is a hedge against the pandemic that is happening and will happen in the future. The thing about the PlusToken might be the reason for the big fall this month since we did see the price of Bitcoin increasing as CoVid - 19 is still an epidemic. Time will tell which is which.

Then we cannot call it a correction if it is connected with it.
It's a dump.

Basic needs is being hoard and people will need cash. But I bet banks also loved this kind of event.
People cannot pay their credit cards and they have been using it a lot.
It might take like 2 months before all of this subside or maybe more, so fees will soar for paying late.

Another option is using their savings so all fiat will be going back to the central bank.
Then there is bitcoin. Because of not much option to  pay thru it we sell.
I don't think we are feeling it yet by now. But there might be a larger percentage that it could go down more after all of this.

Exactly, and yet, my boss supports bitcoin heavily and has a lot of his savings in Bitcoin, when the price dropped he was so upset he even said "quit your jobs and sell your cryptos, it's all a scam", I couldn't believe it! He later come to his senses and realized that indeed, other stores of value were also dropping low which I guess calmed him down, but the look on his face really made me think he got it all wrong at that point.

Maybe not super related but just something that came to mind after reading your comment.

many smart people have been saying that for years already, you just weren't listening. ;)

tyler winklevoss was 100% correct when he said this:


https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1239255301171314689

gold and bitcoin should both dump in a global recession. that's just common sense. the #1 rule during recessions has always been cash is king. that won't change until people lose faith in reserve currencies like the USD. that's what tyler means by "it is a hedge to fiat regimes".

what do you think will happen if the USA government totally defaults and tries to reset their currency? do you think people will start to question fiat currencies and exit to gold? bitcoin? other commodities with fundamental or intrinsic value? i think so.

Just because he supports it, does not mean he will not acknowledge the manipulation which happens in this market, where 1% of the users controls 99% of the supply, and most of those who came later wants to gamble with it.

Supporting bitcoin does not mean you cant criticize it, be it in a technological level, or on a market/speculative level. Only the hodlers cult thinks otherwise, and wants you to keep repeating "hodl hodl" like a brainlet retard, holding a empty bag while the market plunges to sub-1000s levels.

Bitcoin was meant top hedge against bad days, pandemic is one of them. However, this is a lot different than anything else. Normally when there is a bubble burst like 2008 we can count on bitcoin because that is something specific to a problem financial world has, for example 2008 was real estate and mortgage crisis, why would bitcoin be affected by a mortgage crisis? It has nothing to do with mortgage anyway.

Certainly, we got created after that so we don't know how we would reacted, but 2008 and today are vastly different. Right now, there is something global and not local to USA, even 2008 affected places like Greece or Italy and Spain but this is GLOBAL, so I can sort of understand why bitcoin was affected. People realized their mistake though and we are high again so we can still call it a hedge if we want.

That is totally correct! We have struggled a lot and continue to do so to make Bitcoin accepted by more people around the world. The Coronavirus issue is a delicate one and once science finds the cure for the virus we will return to normal and restore the economy that Covid19 will undoubtedly affect.

adoption is not only the one that bitcoin wants to achieve but many things also like improving its features   , improving its value  , and many more  but you are right . before bitcoin already struggled and face many hard problems or obstacles but bitcoin survived it all and not unfortunately bitcoin is again facing another battle   .  lets think what we have done on the past to help bitcoin and we shall apply it also on here  . bitcoin was never meant for something that isnt stated on its white paper but people are sometimes expanding thier imagination and think bitcoin can do everything

Bitcoin has proving that it can be hedge against pandemic! It might not be created for that but by some of the things that we have used bitcoin to achieve it can be a really hedge. I prefer to hold bitcoin than any other assets during this pandemic.

The influenced of Corona makes more people to drive away from this industry, seeing that the market is falling while this pandemic virus is pulling the economy of each countries that being penetrated.
Though the chance of having those investors to go back and bring decent amount of investment are still possible once the cure for this virus is already being found. For now everything is still depends from how traders and investors will keep the Barrier.

I have been disappointed also, I was thinking after a while in the situation of isolation and reduced used of fiat for period over 3 months, digital coin will be engaged but some decided to get back to fiat from cryptocurrency. I saw different news on countries proceeding to production of their own stable coin but were all rumor. There are more exposure on cryptocurrency with this crisis and it might lead to more adoption after the crisis is over.

Yeah, but the financial industry will need to heal first.
This would is getting deeper and deeper and even government officials are being forced to let the employees work just for the economy to sustain everything which is not a good look for me.

I'd rather see them alive the next month rather than forcing it just so the money could keep on coming.
People are the ones who will make it and without them then why would you want to make the economy better?
Let them be safe first so they will still have humans to govern.

This isn't rumors, there are several news articles about it, central banks statistics, reports, etc. Central banks are working for months on their own digital currencies (since 2018 well before COVID-19 exist). why would they start to accept a currency stateless than they don't control
We would need a major crisis like in 1929 to see ''perhaps" Bitcoin adopted. The human isn't ready to accept cryptocurrencies, mentalities toward money and how the system work need to change first.

- 70% of central banks exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies https://www.ledgerinsights.com/bis-70-percent-central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc/

- Explainer: Central bank digital currencies - Moving towards reality? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cenbank-digital-currencies-explainer/explainer-central-bank-digital-currencies-moving-towards-reality-idUSKBN1ZM2JH

- Discussion Paper Central Bank Digital Currency: Opportunities, challenges and design
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/paper/2020/central-bank-digital-currency-opportunities-challenges-and-design.pdf?la=en&hash=DFAD18646A77C00772AF1C5B18E63E71F68E4593

I thought at first that Bitcoin wouls strive more in these kinds of crisis because, people would likely turn more on using it than fiats that are vurnerable in spreading the virus. As the physical markets closed down, so is the standing of Bitcoin. Should have expected it when the price decreased as the virus spreads even more.

But, these days prove to be a good sign for the future of Bitcoin because the price is now stable in a $6,000+ value. Hoping this would contine till the next month up until the halving.

I think that first of all we should look at the technical characteristics of Bitcoin and the benefits it brings to society and the economy.  First of all, if Bitcoin will be used as a means of payment and will be recognized as a digital asset, then its price will definitely increase due to demand and will become more stable than it is today.  And the fact that Bitcoin has a certain amount will enable users and owners of Bitcoin to be confident in their future, since Bitcoin is not subject to inflation and this enables people to preserve the value of all their assets and savings.  The fact is that any crisis in the world that is provoked by various irritants in any case affects the economy and the value of the national fiat currency, and Bitcoin in this situation can significantly affect the circumstances in which most people today are.

   Arkann I totally agree with you, everything you wrote is truth. With Bitcoin nobody can decide to make infinite Bitcoin supply, like
some governments are doing now. We would have better economy, more transparent economy, and all of us will contribute to that
in some way, not just group of people!
   I don't think about the price of Bitcoin, it's moving all the time, I think about the future of Bitcoin and I believe that others will
recognize what is Bitcoin capable of doing.