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Author Topic: Bitcoin was never meant to be a hedge against a Global Pandemic  (Read 323 times)
soxxx
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March 17, 2020, 05:00:01 AM
 #1

I believe in a normal Financial Crisis, Bitcoin would have fared better, but we are dealing with something that is being treated as much larger, which is a global pandemic. In 2008 people didn't hoard groceries, hoard supplies, get locked inside of their houses, have their livelihood shut down etc. This is not just a financial crisis, this is something different. There is real fear among many people that things will continue to get much worse and dangerous for a very long period of time. Bitcoin was never meant to be a hedge against a global pandemic. Gold is suffering the same fate as well, Gold is not a hedge against a Global Pandemic either. Once when the fear of the Global Pandemic absolves, Bitcoin will continue on its way toward what it is meant to achieve.
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March 17, 2020, 06:06:34 AM
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 #2

Speculative financial assets never perform well in a falling market. This is the first bear market Bitcoin has seen and I think it’s performing exactly as expected.

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March 17, 2020, 07:04:16 AM
 #3

Good point and just what I'd been arguing with a long time ago with friends. I mean, I love bitcoin and I think it's a hedge against all things fiat. But this coronavirus is a doomsday scenario, which is also what I was arguing about, that if some big event hits the whole world and people need to SURVIVE, bitcoin will do as badly as fiat and stocks etc.

BUT stocks and fiat will DIE if things get 10 times worse than they are today. Bitcoin will actually survive.

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March 17, 2020, 07:09:07 AM
 #4

Once when the fear of the Global Pandemic absolves, Bitcoin will continue on its way toward what it is meant to achieve.
It is what we're waiting for. Whoever has the patience on these times, will reap later on. We can't deny that the global pandemic that we're dealing with is somehow correlated with bitcoin's correction.

There is real fear among many people that things will continue to get much worse and dangerous for a very long period of time.
I'm pretty much looking at the brighter side of the number of patients that have been recovered and this shows hope not just on the health sector but to the financial sector too. Soon, things will calm and the market will recover.

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March 17, 2020, 08:36:42 AM
 #5

People usually elaborate minor issues and create unnecessary panic when there is none. With all that is going on, I'm not surprised to see the price of Bitcoin go this way. And with it recent price, I still believe it's doing good. I was actually thinking the price will go below what we have now.

Nevertheless, I believe the price will soon rise again but then, many won't be able to purchase it then.
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March 17, 2020, 08:51:52 AM
 #6

People usually elaborate minor issues and create unnecessary panic when there is none. With all that is going on, I'm not surprised to see the price of Bitcoin go this way. And with it recent price, I still believe it's doing good. I was actually thinking the price will go below what we have now.

Nevertheless, I believe the price will soon rise again but then, many won't be able to purchase it then.

It's the "AAAHHHH ITS THE END OF THE WORLD.... THE APOCALYPSE !!!!!"  people that want to protect all their material possessions.
They are by definition the weak hands, and are more focused on having enough TP to last to the end of times.

The strong hands have been buying Bitcoin or other crypto. I think I got some at a good price.
In about 6 months this will pay off big IMO. (Or we all died from corona, but you can't take money with you into death)

I strongly believe that once corona has died down any investment (ANY INVESTMENT) should yield atleast 100% profit.
Current market is pure mortal fear....

Is this hedging against a pandemic? No this is just taking advantage of a good stock market swing  Cool

Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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March 17, 2020, 09:36:36 AM
 #7

Speculative financial assets never perform well in a falling market. This is the first bear market Bitcoin has seen and I think it’s performing exactly as expected.
Good point but I was expecting something else, maybe I was delusional but I was really thinking that bitcoin will grow in times like this, but now I am convince that its too early, bitcoin is not that strong in worst market situation like what we are witnessing now, its too risky, maybe in the future?

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March 17, 2020, 09:54:10 AM
 #8

Good point but I was expecting something else, maybe I was delusional but I was really thinking that bitcoin will grow in times like this, but now I am convince that its too early, bitcoin is not that strong in worst market situation like what we are witnessing now, its too risky, maybe in the future?

It acted exactly how I expected all along.

If it were being used as a form of money by a large enough number of people that would make it a very different proposition in terms of resilience to something that's pure speculation. I'm not sure it'll ever reach that phase in our lifetimes.

As for global panic, that can't be kept up forever. Even if things fundamentally change for several months people eventually normalise and adapt long before the actual problem is solved.

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March 17, 2020, 10:11:58 AM
 #9

Speculative financial assets never perform well in a falling market. This is the first bear market Bitcoin has seen and I think it’s performing exactly as expected.
Good point but I was expecting something else, maybe I was delusional but I was really thinking that bitcoin will grow in times like this, but now I am convince that its too early, bitcoin is not that strong in worst market situation like what we are witnessing now, its too risky, maybe in the future?

In these times people look to what they need.
- TP
- Canned food
- Fuel
- Water
- Medicine
- Hygienic products
- Clothing

You simply cannot eat bitcoin or dollar bills...

Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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March 17, 2020, 01:57:26 PM
 #10

The bulltard cult is already trying all kind of excuses for the failure of bitcoin as a store of value.

Gold dropped 10%, bitcoin dropped 60%.
There is not much to be said here. The source of it was already identified: 2000% leverage with derivatives on Bitmex, which in this forum is seemed as something "normal", but didn't exist during the 2013-2015 crashes. Gold only crashed in this crisis because it also have derivatives, but with circuit breakers, hence the difference in drops.

This means bitcoin now is a casino, not a currency and much less a store of value. This is the result of many years of brainwashing from the "hodl cult", which dont want bitcoin to succeed as a currency, or as a store of value. They want you to buy and "hodl" for 200 years while they place their bets and made tons of fiat paper money. Dont fall for their lies.
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March 17, 2020, 02:00:04 PM
 #11

It's still much higher than last winter despite the pandemic. Pretty good, no?
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March 17, 2020, 02:12:04 PM
 #12

I think you have this idea of here:

https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1239255301171314689

and here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5233245.0

   
Tyler Winklevoss said that
and I totally agree, this situation is about health and life, it's not just a financial crisis, and every market is suffering, there´s no reason to blame BTC and cryptos, we just have to wait, it´s a few weeks until world get back to normal

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March 17, 2020, 07:08:06 PM
 #13

But this pandemic do good to the crypto market in my option, many people may get to know about cryptocurrencies since people were encouraged to use digital transactions for every purchase so it is possible to stop spreading the virus.And we are stable now at $5000 to 5500 region while other assets are still falling so wait for some big eyes to find cryptos as an better investment.

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March 17, 2020, 07:24:45 PM
 #14

The bulltard cult is already trying all kind of excuses for the failure of bitcoin as a store of value.

bitcoin was never a store of value. how could it be? it is a beta software released in 2009. this is the definition of speculative.

bitcoin could be a store of value similar to gold many years from now---but first comes adoption and usage/trust over time. you (and anyone else clinging to the store of value status) are putting the cart before the horse.

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March 18, 2020, 02:54:30 AM
 #15

Speculative financial assets never perform well in a falling market. This is the first bear market Bitcoin has seen and I think it’s performing exactly as expected.

And this wasn't really obvious to most people in Bitcoin community, we so often saw here posts about economic problems in the world and how it's supposed to be good for Bitcoin, some I think were even hoping for a new crisis to come sooner to boost Bitcoin, I'm sure this crash was eye-opening to many.

But I don't think that Bitcoin will have to perform poorly if the stock market will be only moderately bearish, Bitcoin still can recover and continue going up a bit later this year without any special reason.

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March 18, 2020, 04:25:34 AM
 #16

People usually elaborate minor issues and create unnecessary panic when there is none. With all that is going on, I'm not surprised to see the price of Bitcoin go this way. And with it recent price, I still believe it's doing good. I was actually thinking the price will go below what we have now.

Nevertheless, I believe the price will soon rise again but then, many won't be able to purchase it then.

It's the "AAAHHHH ITS THE END OF THE WORLD.... THE APOCALYPSE !!!!!"  people that want to protect all their material possessions.
They are by definition the weak hands, and are more focused on having enough TP to last to the end of times.

The strong hands have been buying Bitcoin or other crypto. I think I got some at a good price.
In about 6 months this will pay off big IMO. (Or we all died from corona, but you can't take money with you into death)

I strongly believe that once corona has died down any investment (ANY INVESTMENT) should yield atleast 100% profit.
Current market is pure mortal fear....

Is this hedging against a pandemic? No this is just taking advantage of a good stock market swing  Cool

Looking right now at the stock markets, are there any large cap stocks which are actually a good deal? I looked at the blue chips like Apple, Facebook, Amazon and they are pretty much where they were back in 2017 and 2017 was already an over-extended bull market. Maybe bitcoin can yield 100% profit but for most stocks, at these prices, I think they won't yield much profit in the near future (1 year or so).

2008 was different. I remember stocks like Apple were very cheap back then like $11 or so. And it probably took Apple less than 1 year to hit a new ATH. Apple peaked at almost $30 and its bottom was almost $10, so basically 33% from ATH. Currently if you look its peak was $328 and $240 is current price so about 75% from its ATH price. Basically has a long way to go for it to be a steal of a deal. Only good stocks right now are oil stocks and airline stocks. However those are more risky since a few of those can go bankrupt or go nationalized like GM did back in 2010.





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March 18, 2020, 04:54:35 AM
 #17

I believe in a normal Financial Crisis, Bitcoin would have fared better, but we are dealing with something that is being treated as much larger, which is a global pandemic. In 2008 people didn't hoard groceries, hoard supplies, get locked inside of their houses, have their livelihood shut down etc. This is not just a financial crisis, this is something different. There is real fear among many people that things will continue to get much worse and dangerous for a very long period of time. Bitcoin was never meant to be a hedge against a global pandemic. Gold is suffering the same fate as well, Gold is not a hedge against a Global Pandemic either. Once when the fear of the Global Pandemic absolves, Bitcoin will continue on its way toward what it is meant to achieve.

Sure it is. The market just has not digested that BTC can't be seized, but cash, shares, gold, your food can be. When the market realises this they will all in on BTC.

The fiat market has just treated BTC as "another" asset.


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March 18, 2020, 07:58:15 AM
 #18

I guess not but it was also not supporting it neither was it. Bitcoin and gold is usually seen as store of value. What does that mean? When all else falls these things have a limited supply so price of gold and bitcoin should either stay still or go up because dollars and stocks and many other things go down and they are less valuable so when they are less valuable these limited supply commodities should be going up but they are not.

So in theory, bitcoin was a hedge against a global pandemic, not really directly because it is not a medicine after all but it was created with the idea that when all else fails bitcoin should stay, just like gold does, however this time around even gold couldn't handle it so this is just a way different scenario than whatever we have seen in history.

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btc_angela
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March 18, 2020, 09:22:19 AM
 #19

But this pandemic do good to the crypto market in my option, many people may get to know about cryptocurrencies since people were encouraged to use digital transactions for every purchase so it is possible to stop spreading the virus.And we are stable now at $5000 to 5500 region while other assets are still falling so wait for some big eyes to find cryptos as an better investment.

But the problem is that there are no merchants that are going to accept bitcoin as payment even at this time, so what good does crypto can be in a pandemic that we have seen right now? So yes, it wasn't design to be a hedge against global pandemic, and the cover-19 incident was a testament to it.

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exstasie
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March 18, 2020, 11:19:08 AM
 #20

Looking right now at the stock markets, are there any large cap stocks which are actually a good deal? I looked at the blue chips like Apple, Facebook, Amazon and they are pretty much where they were back in 2017 and 2017 was already an over-extended bull market.

These blue chips are on my watch list. More blood than the indices but strong companies with very reliable returns over decades:

  • Stanley Black & Decker
  • General Dynamics Corporation
  • UMB Financial Corp
  • Cullen/Frost Bankers

I don't like to catch knives though. I'm watching and waiting. If this is 1987, we are close to bargain basement prices. If this is 2008, we've still got a ways to go.

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