Bitcoin Forum

What were they thinking? These people have a reputation, no one is going to take them for real making these claims. What's going to happen when nothing happens?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3X03KyUYuo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3X03KyUYuo)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pz_j2su9Ehc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pz_j2su9Ehc)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdPWnYnpEOw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdPWnYnpEOw)

Think about it. The marketcap for BTC to reach 1mm/BTC would mean massive mainstream adoption. Also, it would mean tons of random NEETs that happen to store a couple BTC suddendly join the 1% clique.
And, let's say hypothetically that 1 BTC reaches these ridiculous prices. What will be the purchasing power of 1 BTC? Wouldn't basically mean that the USD dollar devalued itself 1mmth times? Even if it went to 1mm/BTC, so what? you could only buy a cheese burge with it.

I just find the whole thing ridiculous. I hope im wrong and we all become rich, but the story about holding 1 BTC and waiting to be a millonaire sounds so ridiculous to me. And they could play the "the end of the world is near" card, and keep people waiting forever.

They were just pumping their own 'stock'. You see similar behavior quite often in the traditional financial world with stock promoters spewing nonsense.

1BTC will be a billion $$$ .... but wait is that Bitcoin going up or the Dollar going down ???!?  :-\

If BTC would reach the price of 1mil USD and if you would then only be able to buy a cheeseburger with it, there would have been no mainstream adoption.

Besides this I believe in 1mil USD per bitcoin, as I believe in unicorns.

both?


stranger things have happened
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/GermanyHyperChart.jpg/480px-GermanyHyperChart.jpg

Probably the same people who claimed $1 Bitcoin when Bitcoin was at $0.001...

Flawed logic across the board.

First, yes, 1million per BTC assuming the dollars keeps its purchasing power implies massive mainstream adoption. No one is saying otherwise.
It however does not mean that tons of random people join the 1% clique, that is stupid. Most people need and do realize their paper profit into actual profit, this distributes BTC and allows the price to go up. With BTC one million a piece, you still need thousands to be amongst billionaires, not many have that many BTC to begin with, and not many will be left as they progressively cash out and diversity their wealth.

Next, BTC being 1 million doesn't mean the USD (D actually stands for dollar by the way) devaluated itself (valuation is not an absolute). It devaluates with respect to BTC, but it can keep its value with respect to gold, food, houses, oil, etc. If 1 BTC is 1 million USD, and 1 USD still buys 1 cheese burgers, then you can buy yourself 1 million cheese burgers (in a perfectly liquid market). Regardless of that, remember that the USD loses 1-10% of its purchasing power yearly, if this continues 1 BTC will inevitably be 1 million USD at some point, and in that case, even if 1 BTC buys me 1 cheese burger, I'd rather have had the BTC than any amount of dollars.

You find this ridiculous because you don't quite understand the whole picture and how the pieces fit together.

0.001$ per BTC? Only saw this during alleged Mtgox-hack in 2011.

BTW a few months later we hit 1mil per BTC at Mtgox. So in that sense we were already there.

thx for these videos. needed that.

hasta la victoria siempre !

If 1BTC = 1 000 000$ in 10years it doesn't mean it will be at 1m$ in today's $

The USD will probably plunge against everything within a few years and people are going to want to get into more honest assets that cannot be created at will so I think people will flee the USD to get into shares, precious metals, BTC, CHF, land ect. and we may see massive inflation even measured by the government : 10% +

The Bitcoin community is getting bigger and bigger and BTC is useful and needed but the number of Bitcoin will go up slowly in % terms so its value will probably go up and its price in a fiat currency that is doomed will probably go to the moon

I think 1 million is pretty possible,

maybe even up to about 10 million, but after that it's unlikely (not impossible though)

For 2014 though, it will be between $5000 and $15000 by december.

Satoshi would be worth $1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion dollars).  It won't happen.

Bitcoin more than 1500 is too insane to think of. Maybe, just maybe, for a brief period of time there could be gigantic bubble to 2000-3000. A very big maybe.

Based on what exactly ?

Because he says so.

Well if it gets a small share of the worlds trade in total could happen :P
Maybe not 1 million till inflation cough grows even more
RIP dear Penny then Nickel sooner or later we will need to reset the currency base value lol

The thing is, tons of people (myself included probably) would sell before Bitcoin reaches a million. It truly takes balls of steel to hold. What if Bitcoin went to 20k, then dropped to 10k? You better believe tons of people would be selling off and locking profits (and don't say you won't, because the truth is you never know what you'd do until you're put into that situation).

BTC going to $1million wouldn't make us all millionaires. I would be willing to bet that only a small portion of us, say 5%, would become millionaires.

Also, as the above posts mentioned, there is always the chance of the US dollar inflating so that BTC does reach a million... but it wouldn't be in today's dollars ;)

The people saying this are dreaming that bitcoin becomes a world reserve fiat currency as big as the USD (or bigger), but BTC has too many flaws to do anything like that.

Like?

Why is it so unbelievable? As long as bitcoin gains mainstream adoption, 1mil (of purchasing power) per bitcoin is inevitable.

Inquiring minds want to know.

Its' much more fit for use as an international reserve and settlements currency than for, e.g., micropayments, which create scalability problems.

1. The ~10 minute confirmation time
2. The reliance on set encryption protocols which could be broken in the future (EC and SHA256). For something to become as big as a world currency, it needs to be trusted that the technology would last hundreds of years.
3. The blockchain size.
4. The amount of resources that the client uses on a device.
5. Other scalability issues, such as the amount of transactions which can be handled per minute.
6. Irreversibility of transactions.
7. The extreme ease of the average person losing coins due one of many vectors of mistakes and hardware failures, or hackers.
8. The technical difficulty for the average user trying to even use it.
9. Bitcoin commerce and usage has mostly formed within centralized entities even though it is supposed to be decentralized.
10. There are still humans who ultimately control Bitcoin and who must be trusted by its users, even though the system is supposed to be decentralized.
11. Volatility - it is not an attractive store of value for someone who just wants to use it as a store of value or a currency and isn't into investing or speculating.
12. The present distribution of wealth.
13. The reliance on the internet in order to function.
14. Also, what happens if the internet is split apart due to government firewalls.
15. Governments, corporations, and hackers could ultimate control and restrict Bitcoin usage if they really wanted. And mass adoption will not be reached when users have to do it illegally, run tor, and run checks on every client they download to make sure it isn't a hacked client. Even tor traffic or bitcoin traffic over tor could be blocked too by smart routers.
16. Some of the worlds most powerful contries have already banned or restricted it.

** add more here ** - anyone else is welcome

The only way this list is relevant is if bitcoin doesn't continue to develop. And there's zero reason to think that's going to be the case.

Thank you for the objections. Far better than the morons that hate btc cause of no reason at all.

1. transferring coins from one coinbase account to another is instant. In the future there will be many companies that let you pay for things instantly without touching the blockchain. Sounds like right now with things like visa/mastercard? Yes, but now most of your longterm funds will be in bitcoin addresses while short-terms funds will be given to places like coinbase for purchases. A 10-min wait to transfer moderate amounts of savings into spending money is not an issue. (If you have not seen the benefit, this means most of your money is safe and in your control, and can't be inflated away or stolen/frozen)

2. "which could be broken" aka not an issue. Until you have proof, I don't even see this happening.

3. Will never be an issue. Computer memory is going to outpace the blockchain size for a long time to come. AKA computer memory is going to double every 2 years like it has been doing.

4. non-existent you mean????? Internet browsers use more than the clients I think  :P (do not quote me on that)

5. See reason 1. Were supposed to by design. Micro transactions will be done by visa-like companys, while moderate amounts of bitcoin movement will have to pay for the privilege.

6. escrow/not an issue, learn to double check the address b4 sending.

7. There is big money on solving issues. For the person unable to take care of their coins, you can pay someone to make sure that those things do not happen.

8. Solvable, see Neobee.

9. "supposed to"? says who? Bitcoin protocol is the only thing that was advertised and is still, in fact decentralized.  

10. Who? client developers? They are open source, and do not need to be trusted. If they make closed source clients, then you can use the old ones, and I am sure if they fall from grace, there are many developers on the sidelines just waiting for the opportunity to make a name for themselves.

11. Yes, having your savings skyrocket in value about once a year is terrible  ::). I have never understood why up/up/up volatility is so bad.  Anyway, If it really is sooooo scary, then wait until it becomes more popular. The bigger the market cap, the less volatility

12. Personally I don't consider that even an issue. If other people having more money than you is a problem, there is no cure. As long as wealth exists, whether it is in bitcoin/gold/fiat/physical possessions, there will always be wealth disparity.

13. The internet is growing every day, and is not going away. Internet is going to be a worldwide thing in ... what... 10 years?

14. Bitcoin is the least of our worries in that doomsday scenario.

15. How would they? The government is not as uber powerful as you think they are. Pirate bay is still going strong.

16. And others have not. As long as some countries do not, or at least don't have ways to restrict its use, than it can still thrive. Granted, It would slow down mainstream adoption, but I do not think it would kill eventual adoption.

oooook, So I admit, In doomsday scenarios as giant internet firewalls worldwide or all governments banning bitcoin, and actually somehow enforcing such draconian laws, then yes, There is a good chance that bitcoin won't be reaching mainstream adoption. But I believe those scenarios to be far less likely than bitcoin reaching one mil per coin.

I haven't heard that many people claiming $1 million a piece.

As for becoming a global reserve currency, it may never be a governmental thing but that wouldn't stop general populations voting with their feet if it inspired them enough. The dollar is in plenty of pockets where local governments don't want it to be.

Your concerns suggest that no crypto-currency will ever make it. I agree with some points and disagree with some:

1. This is a problem for micropayments but any global decentralized system has a fuzzy notion of synchronization that requires a 30-120 second lag at this point. For example, compare how many orphaned blocks BTC creates to how many LTC creates. Maybe 10 minutes is too much, but 2 minutes is too little. I don't see changing much in the future barring A Breakthrough (TM) because as the internet grows, lag-per-bounce slowly creeps down (with physical limits given by switch reaction time and speed of light / EM field in copper wires) while the number of bounces should creep up (logarithmically in the size of the network maybe? I'm assuming that the internet is roughly tree-like). As reserve / settlement medium, this is not a problem.

2. This is a BIG problem that will not go away. First remember that computing is a very young field. EC may have a backdoor already in the "hand picked" nonstandard constants and whether true hashing function (one-way's) exists is still an open question (more so, it MIGHT be equivalent to P vs NP, that most likely we don't yet have the logic and mathematics required to probe). No current tech will last hundreds of years (probably not even 50 years for the most basic software tech, much less for more high level software tech -- and see how x86 is becoming obsolete already after ~30 years). Actually, think about ANY tech that we're still using after 100 years. The lightbulb? Filament bulbs are already obsolete. The radio? I believe (barring global cataclysms) that tech evolves exponentially. You can extend Moore's law back to ~1880 if you accept mechanical computation as well. I know trends hold until they don't, but Moore's law held a few paradigm shifts already (springs, hydraulics, vacuum lamps, transistors, IC's, networks) and the physical limits for computation are still unimaginably out of reach. True, we still don't understand computation much better than the Truly Illuminated People like Cantor, Hilbert, Godel with his friends, etc. But none of them realised using computation is a much, much easier thing than understanding it. We have hundreds of Turing-complete models nowadays and people already started working on (1) super-Turing computation (statistics / machine learning in the limit is the best model so far) (2) more efficient hardware for other Turing-complete models (no computer actually is a Turing machine and von Neumann RAM machines we all use are starting to not scale well with code complexity) (3) quantum computing which is (in its generality) actually waaay into the future now. Tech evolves fast and that won't change any time soon. Kurzweil and Kaczynski got that right, even if they're in general completely mental.

3. This is not really a problem. On one hand, not everyone needs to use a full client. I would trust something like a transparent nonprofit with relaying the blockchain correctly. On the other hand, trust issues are much more problematic than the blockchain (DNS, CA, my software, my compiler and OS if I write my own software, my hardware, etc). It would be great if this could be bootstrapped, but most likely it wil not happen for the foreseeable future. Maybe NameCoin will catch up, but likely not. CA's are going to be a problem until everyone creates a WoT (not gonna happen as long as Johnny Can't Encrypt). People do not understand that privacy, trust and security cannot be achieved with plug-and-play methods and actually require a lifestyle change -- at the very least, constant active defense. And mobile devices are much worse in this respect than good ol' desktops and laptops.

Also, storage per dollar will most likely still grow exponentially for the foreseeable future.

4. This is not really a problem. A RasPi can easily be a nonmining node.

5. Same with 1. Micropayments vs reserve/settlement.

A worthy mention here is the electricity amount needed to run the network. This is the main reason I do not believe BTC "will be it". Even conservative estimates now are getting out of hand. It's worthy to compare this to the maintenence cost for the USD as reserve and I think BTC scales terribly in this respect. I'm not saying LTC is the answer, but is the right idea. Bind PoW to more kinds of resources (cycles, RAM, maybe even bandwidth). Make it so that it's not much more expensive in total for a million small peers than one large peer with a million peers' power. Cycles does not cut it because the economies of scale are for large clusters (this could change with ubiquitous computing but that's still far into the future). RAM is better because it doesn't use much power, you just need to have enough. On the other hand, you need to adjust RAM requirements as well as difficulty, because RAM also gets cheaper exponentially so if you don't, in a number of years it becomes a complete non-limitation. AFAIK, no alt scales RAM requirements. Another option is PoS but PPC didn't get it right (and if I knew what is "right" I would do it myself).

6. Not really a problem. Most of the world did not forget cash yet, which is just as irreversible.

7. This is a problem and refers to 3 above (Johnny Can't Encrypt). On the other hand, people are willing to trust one entity to do it for them. I know that If You Are Not The Only One To Hold The Keys You Don't Have It, but the same can be said about cash vs digital bank IOUs. People don't care and a transparent insured service could do the trick.

8. Same with 7. On the other hand, the average user slowly becomes more savvy. Think about the history of e-mail or internet, cars, microwave ovens etc.

9. They are required in the early stages to provide nucleation. If/When the system matures a bit, the low barriers of entry mean a more free market so this problem slowly solves itself. Banking now is ridiculous everywhere (why can't I open a bank with my own rules, clearly stating that I'm not insured and be transparent about my finances and activity? consumer banking SHOULD be completely transparent, there's no "know-how" there).

10. This is a problem. The Foundation is the first example that comes to mind. Until/Unless bitcoind becomes as audited as, say, debian, this will still be a problem.

11. This is a problem and I don't know what to say about it. I don't believe volatility will get lower on its own as the network gets larger. The network would need ample cushioning with derivatives to achieve this, but who is going to do it if there is no One True Price? In the absence of exchanges, there is no One True Price for BTC. Maybe what we need is embrace price discrimination. Maybe full reserve and savings buffers means everyone can accept more short-term volatility if long-term the price tends to move slowly. But then, derivatives has the same leveraging effects as fractional reserves. I believe a general solution to this would be a true paradigm shift from growth to stability. So probably not happening in the next century, if ever. Maybe when we join the swarm/grid things will change.

12. A problem for the world at large that is the same problem for BTC. I don't think BTC is worse. Maybe LTC but I doubt that too. The distribution of wealth will always be exponential, only question is, how skewed.

13. Obvious problem, but then again, so is 90% of modern world. Fuck it, even driving a car will probably need a permanent internet connection in the next 10-20 years IMHO. All problems of the internet/computing world in point 3 above affect cryptos too. Namely, not all internet is decentralized, not everything in the internet system scales well, not all internet is trustless (DNS, CA, infrastructure -- including protocols like IP -- are the largest problems).

14. This is not a problem. Firewalls can be pierced/avoided and a physical separation will never happen. Even if it does, someone will plant their own fiber in the oceans and reconnect off the record. Even if this doesn't happen, a few node satellites could solve it "forever". Either way, infrastructure cannot be decentralized because the internet infrastructure is not decentralized. Grid projects could solve this, but none is practical yet, and their adoption is a bigger problem than crypto adoption. Ubiquitous computing will probably solve this problem, but that's still SciFi. This is the internet's problem.

15. Same as 3, 7, 13, 14. Internet's problem. Also, a complete effective ban will never work (undecidability, etc etc).

16. This is not a problem. On one hand, China also banned capital outflows and how is that working with UnionPay? Technically speaking, every single one of us does a number of illegal things every day. On the other hand, if governments manage to control THIS, then BTC is clearly noone's largest problem. Citizen drone DEAD00BEEF00-1, move along.

IMHO:

A. The largest problem is the reliance on the internet. But this is a problem that affects (or can affect) everything in our lives to such a great extent that I would not consider it a BTC problem. We NEED a truly decentralized and scalable internet for many, many reasons not related to BTC. If one gets going, BTC is plug-and-play in the new network. This is why I do not consider it BTC's problem. At best, it's all crypto's problem. At worst, it's every one's and every thing's problem.

B. BTC itself's largest problem is electricity consumption. Second is EC. Third is that if BTC becomes reserve currency, it will get dilluted with BTC IOUs just like gold was (and vulnerable to the same things). Fourth, BTC is not actually good for microtransactions and a credit network like Ripple ( But Not Ripple , maybe ZeroReserve?) is way better.

So yeah, I don't think BTC Is It (TM). If it reaches 1M USD, then it's most definitely NOT 2014-USD. But it's a first step in the right direction. The next right direction IMO is toward efficiency: to realize that the blockchain is not DISTRIBUTED but simply just REPLICATED. In terms of efficiency, that is a great difference. Don't forget BTC is and has always been and will always be an experiment. It's not even beta, it's alpha at best.

And finally, I fully believe that a system that is entirely non-hierarchical CANNOT scale. You need structure to manage size. You need dynamic structure to manage dynamic size. Some "centralization" is inevitable in any large enough system.

+1

Couldn't have said it better.

About point 3 they already have a fix that could be implemented since I asked that question.

They will split bitcoin clients into full clients and limited clients.
The full clients use up more space since they represent the full block chain.
The limited client only have the last X days/weeks/months of blockchain information.

What I think is that they either merge all data <X into a point-in-time which will be embedded in a limited client and calculate wallets from that point onwards.
That point in time must be a given fact for all clients and verifiable through full clients.

Either that or a limited client requests the missing information from a full client.


Anyhow there are many ways to circumvent point 3  8)
Point 4 is also not a problem due to this.


About point 6, why is this a bad thing? Irreversability is the fundament of bitcoin securirty. Who do you trust to reverse a transaction?!?!? Yes we need to protect people from malicious transactions that is very true but that kind of protection can be built around bitcoin into the infrastructure supporting it.

are you loosing faith, brother ? intensify your worshipping efforts   :D

Yes I believe in 1 million per bitcoin.

the big money is not in retail "massive adoption" its in backbone, store of value, asset class.

so no, It would not require massive adoption

remember the biggest listed companies are a drop in the bucket vs the money out there eg apple/exxon whatever is 1/20 th of the largest private company, and that's the one we know of.

1 BTC = $1,000,000 means 100 satoshi = $1.00. All Bitcoin submultiples could be finally put to use.

that would be quite cool, easy to work with, makes you wonder is satoshi didn't pick it for this reason.....!

Yes, it would certainly be!

For the peak of the next bubble, 3000$ is within reach, but only if the current bubble won't deflate catastrophically (to below 100$).
From 63$ to 1163$ (Bitstamp prices), it was about 18x in about 5 months. So with a bottom of about 150$ - 200$, 3000$ for the next ATH
is possible IMO. But it would require an increase in demand similar to the one from China, and I don't see yet where that will come from.

This is an extremely well-articulated and thought-provoking response. My hats off to you. You've given me much to contemplate and I envy anyone who has the chance to sit down with you and pick your brains further on this matter.

It has been well established that even if Bitcoin only replaced the amount of commerce Amazon.com does, and controlled just the remittances market, it would be $50,000 per coin.  I realize awareness of the bitcoin protocol and its capabilities across numerous financial niches, is not a strong suit for most day traders.  They just want to make a quick buck and think very short term.  But suffice it to say that handling Amazon.com volume commerce (there are over 100,000 merchants accepting BTC already, how many merchants equal one amazon?) and remittances will be a pittance compared to the numerous other industries Bitcoin is capable of disrupting and overtaking.  Or at least being "incorporated into".  Awareness of what Bitcoin actually is would make the above thoughts not seem "ridiculous".  

-B-

Thank you for the kind words. I've had some of the wisest mentors in the world. Please consider donating a beer if you feel generous.

If there's anything you want to ask, I will do my best to answer if I can. Maybe I can't and some one else can.
Either way, let's get a serious conversation going on this.

The sum of all bitcoin would reach 21 Trillion USD

Google 21 Trillion, that's about how much USD is supposedly hidden away for tax evasion.

so, what happens in 10 years when cryptographic technology is 100x what is today? Bitcoin will be like an old rotary telephone.

Is the internet old technology?

An open-source protocol like bitcoin will be built upon, not utterly replaced.

If you are talking about a serious conversation about the strength Bitcoin fundamentals, I fear my understanding may not even come close to your level! Do you mind me asking what sort of background you have?

Satoshis foresight really is amazing, isn't it?

maybe I did my math wrong, but I'm pretty sure that in order for bitcoin to reach $1,000,000 HALF THE WORLD would have to adopt bitcoin. Assuming there's 10.5 trillion dollars in circulation, divide by the million dollar mark of bitcoin, then divide by the 21 million bitcoin hard wire, and I got .5.

Not everyone use dollars and the amount of dollars in circulation is increasing way more than the amount of bitcoins in circulation

10.5trillions is M2 a year or 2 ago, M3 is not disclosed anymore but it is probably 16-17 trillions and increasing


Bitcoin can adapt, Phone companies or internet companies don't automatically go bankrupt as soon as a new tech arrives, sometimes they grow bc of it

Who would buy 1 bitcoin at 1mill.

Rewind a year and people were saying the same thing about $1000.

I have to admit though that 1 bitcoin at 1M $ doesn't sound very plausible to me (or perhaps doable, but bubbly), at least compared to 2014 USDs (not taking into account loss of purchasing power of future dollars).  I am more of a 1 BTC =  +- $100k kind of guy  ;)  .

People generally have trouble seeing the bright future from the small world of today.

I always hear people say the USD can't crash bc there would be dire consequences if it does, I was hearing everyone telling me that Poutine would never annex Crimée

People think nothing bad can happen?

Persons that have security and confortable life don't want things to change too much and there are defending the powerful state, they can have the luxury to eat very healthy too when the poor want things to change, if only they knew the state is not protecting them against the big corporations bc the state protects the big corporations; without a powerful states most of the evil corporations would disappear

(almost) noone would buy 1 BTC for $1,000,000, but people will eventually buy 1mBTC for $1,000 or 1µBTC for $1

If you are rich you will buy 1BTC for 1million bc you need some BTC and it is safer than fiat

1million $ will seem like a good deal when there is hyperinflation

That's not how it works. If the dollar loses 99% of its current purchase value then the price of bitcoin in dollar will rise 100 times. Meanwhile if, for example, the euro maintains its purchasing power in this scenario then the euro price for bitcoin will remain what it was.

If the USD loses 99% of its value the Bitcoin price will probably rise more than 100times bc people will expect more inflation and will want to protect their purchasing power

The EU will probably monetize its debt so the EURO will fall as well

BTC will gain purchasing power not only nominal value with the increasing adoption, security and solidity of the protocol

Nothing overly exciting or dramatic, old source downoads will exist for geeks with an interest in the history.

Bitcoin can simply have a new hash function dropped in.

A quote from @Satoshi on this board:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191.msg1585#msg1585

quoted for truth and relevance.

let's disconnect the state from money, that'll solve some problems.

Thank you, my eyes opened after I read/listened Schiff (https://www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport) and Molyneux (https://www.youtube.com/user/stefbot)

They just made me understand what I actually knew all along but it is hard to follow your instincts when everyone is telling you the state is here to provide security

Stealing is bad but taking 50% of someone's income is good? The state is suppose to help the poor but it is taking 20-30% of their income and sometimes not allowing them to build a business or get a job for their own good
Always beware of those who want to control your life, don't give away your freedom for a feeling of security because you will lose both your freedom and your security

hehe, we've got another one.

TERA, Wow. I am completely baffled by the intelligence you show in investing and chart trending, yet the complete ignorance of bitcoin itself. Most if not all these points you bring up could be debunked by a mere novice.

That's TERA for you. Habitually depressed.

I know isnt this great......we are in the process of vacuuming up all this wealth, as they are forced into BTC as we devalue their FIAT holdings or other assets

Can you imagine what going to go to happen to some of the laggards to btc, they will be used to be wealthy

1 BTC can be worth 1million dollars in the future!

But only if dollar's price goes down so much...

That is a negative post about 1BTC=1,000,000USD; what about a postive post on BTC reaching that price : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=537916.new#new

To all who bet on fiat currencies, look at history of fiat currencies, they all fail, usually faster than slower

The post you linked says pretty much the same thing, though:

Hyperinflation

Say it with us now

Hyperinflation

Bitcoin is from the future, much like velcro.  Use and enjoy!

TERA - All of these points/deficiencies can eventually be overcome with time and development, as you already know.  Except for #14 through #16, which I agree with you... it may get crazier still in the next 2-3 years.  #15 could happen if digital currencies becomes enough of a threat to gov't/banks throughout the world, but the U.S. and other democratic leaning countries already know that trying to stifle technological innovation, even in the finance industry, is just a really bad idea and wouldn't go over very well with the populous.  It would backfire if they came down hard, because they loathe to take things away from people without cause.

Let's look back 15 years ago.  Remember when you still had to purchase web browsing software?  Remember when the free/open source software movement began?  Remember the Java/J2EE vs. .NET wars?  Remember when Linux came along to shake up IT in the Enterprise?  I do... and I remember when folks were shouting at the top of their lungs that free, open source software would NEVER trump non-free, proprietary software.  It would never work, they said, and would die a slow painful death.  Well look how that all turned out.

i dont think its that unbelievable this could happen with mainstream adaption and like walmart and meijer and such accepting bitcoins and liqour stores and someway we can instantly quickyl pay a cashier in bitcoins.

In 1994, a guy predicted that someday domain names would sell for $1 million.  Everyone said that he was an idiot for thinking that and for buying them and that they would never be worth anything.

In 2007, VacationRentals.com (just the name) sold for $35 million.  That was only 13 years after they said this.

Now, personally, I don't think bitcoin will go to $1 million each (although I would be thrilled if they do).  I personally think that $30,000-$40,000 will be the limit for a while, with $100,000 being an outside possibility.  It really would take something like BRIC switching to bitcoin instead of USD to change that, but BRIC (except Brazil) have all banned bitcoins virtually completely.

You make a statement based on your own assumption and therefore your post is flawed. I can post this chart as a counter argument and claim my assumption is superior to yours cause I attached graphics.

https://i.imgur.com/4eSQHL2.png

This is exactly the point to calculate the value of one bitcoin when it accounts to let's say 5% of all money transactions in the world. You have 21mio. Bitcoins which is like the cash of dollars, euros etc. So you have to set the 21mio. relative to the cash in the world not all the fiat. (M1 or even M3)

There are about 800billion Euros. The Euro is mainly used in the EURO-zone which accounts for around 20% of the eorld economy, so about 4 trillion US in cash in the world.
1% of all transaction would mean a market cap of 40 billionen dollar so 2000$ for each bitcoin.
5% lead to 10 000$.
10% to 20 000$.

It might be higher: M1 is about 7 times more than the cash. M3 is 15times higher. The numbers above assume the same with Bitcoin but depending on regulation the reserve of service (visa like) would be higher. So maybe they have a 25% reserve so this would lead to 2times higher prices. Another point is, that many bitcoins might be lost forever and we have only 16mio. coins in Jan. 2017, 18.5mio. in jan 2021. Bitcoin could be seen as a store of value, too and maybe other technologies which may affect the price.  

It might be lower:
Maybe even if people use it they might see it as risky to hold btc depending on the volatility when it is adopted. Because of that and because money can be transfered much faster then bank wrie the  the velocity of money might be higher. So this means that it feels like the supply of bitcoins is higher and therefore its price lower.

For both: sure depending on the amount of transactions it will be higher or lower.

PS: These are just very round numbers and might be of by the factor of 1.5 or 2. Consider this.

1. Just because something has risen in value unexpected that means nothing. This is not an argument that my shit will be worth 1Mio. one day just because I am predicting this. This is like poeple assessing the value of altcoin. They just assume the market cap will be the same so if there are 4times more litecoins a litecoin will cost 25% of a bitcoin eventually and is right now way undervalued (2.8%). You could say this to all altcoins. Ah there will be 5000times more DOGE, so one DOGE will cost eventually 0.02% of a Bitcoin. And so on.
2. You have to think longterm. Leaders of countries chance and could make Bitcoin legal or even embrace it. For now it is easy to ban it because there is a tiny, tiny amount of voter to lose (or none, when you consider that many bitcoiners at this stage are anti-goverment so they don't vote anyway).

I am pretty sure it will get to new all time highs. $5000 should be no big deal. But I can only see this if the western goverment play along. But I think they will. Western countries are in the position to invent things. They cannot copy. And people do know that! So there is a certain amount of freedom necessary.

excellent graphic, and proving to have already made a good prediction 5 months after the time you created it!

zero chance bitcoin hits a million each, zero. I will sacrifice all the hairs on my body if it ever reaches 100k.

just think it through, 1 single bitcoin is worth a million dollars. That means anyone currently holding 1,000 btc will be a billionaire.

it will not ever happen, ever. the world will be in global meltdown and only one server will be maintaining the blockchain if we got anywhere close.

As sure as I am about global warming, the ineffectiveness of capital punishment, being born gay, the ethical standing of abortion, and the right mindedness of environmental decision making we will never ever see a million dollar bitcoin.

Even if the purchasing power of the Dollar is decreasing rapidly?

Prepare to "sacrifice all the hairs on your body"

Is that really the best you can offer as a sacrifice?  It's just hair, it grows right back

A German would probably have said the same about a loaf of bread reaching 1 million old Marks, but he would have been wrong.

None of us know the future with certainty.

Yeah, right, I suppose with some energetic laser treatment the follicles might be stunted for a few years but even still... It's hardly a sacrifice of biblical proportions... :D

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=537916.0;topicseen

1,000,000$ is probable

1 Million per BTC is possible, a lot of things are possible but they don't necessarily happen.

1 Mill per BTC reminds me of the kitco Goldbugs, they were calling for $50,000 per ounce gold in 2012, look where gold is now. Both scenarios require a zombie apocalypse hyperinflation or unheard of amounts of magical money being pumped into them.

Bitcoin's price by design should always go up as adoption increases, I think $100,000 per btc is more realistic considering a very positive long term future scenario for BTC, with $5000-$10,000 per BTC in the short-mid term.

what you want to him to sacrifice..? may be a sex change operation? :P but he's safe in my opinion too at least in this life :) and then he might take birth again when btc reaches 1m$ with opposite sex

Hyperinflation is around the corner
We are already seeing a lot of inflation in the sense of increasing money supply and increasing stocks market prices

Just curious: Have you taken the time to analyse the current state of the fiat dollar?

You think this fiat currency is immune to hyper inflation? Well I suppose it is, that is until it succumbs to it.

Throughout history EVERY fiat attempt has hyper-inflated eventually.

The dollar only went full fiat in 1971, but when it did it was doomed from that point, and those that orchestrated it knew it and expected it, and positioned themselves accordingly such that they would gain the most.

What makes you think dollar is immune?? Do you think the dollar operates in an infinite environment or something?? It is already exhibiting signs that all other fiats exhibited prior to their game overs.

Below we see a lady who finds bill stacks to be cheaper than the equivalent weight of firewood. Do you think she might have predicted this 10 years prior? Maybe she did if she was smart enough.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/hildebrand/hyperinflation.jpg

Oh okay. You are wrong about everything else so you will probably be wrong about the price too.

The large problem with this thread is odds are with in 20 years 1 million USD will only buy 1 can of pop can then fail into the abyss of currencies backed by trust of the gov or individual people.

It is not possible for BTC not to be worth 1 million USD... USD has lost value for the past 100 years and will continue to lose value... it seems now though it's about to start to looking for it's actual value.  Do you know how much paper is worth?

No it isn't. Even with a 100% reserve and accounting for every single transaction in the world which is today made in the national currency, you would get something like $200 000.
(M1 Euro is 5 trillionen, accounting for 15% of the world economy, so you get 35 trillion in th world. Divided by 21mio. bictoins you get $150 000).
-> But this will never happen.

Except the dollar is inflating to zero value, of cource. But this is very unlikely.

You make the statement:

"dollar is inflating to zero value. of course."

Then add the caveat:

"But this is very unlikely."


Do you think accelerating inflation is inevitable?

If so then why say it's very unlikely ???

Please Clarify.

I just meant that 1Mio. $ for one BTC is way too much. But if the dollar is inflating 100% for 10 or 20 years it would be no big deal. But I don't think the dollar is in danger. I used to think that for the last few years but there is nothing. The central banks can steer inflation pretty well to the 2% level. The austrians predict a high inflation since decades and since the last 5 years there is extensive money printing and inflation should sky rocket. But there is 2%. In the Euro Zone we have less than 2%, in Spain even a deflation.

Because it didn't happen for a few years and it is kind of holding it cannot happen?

China is not increase its USD reserves, BRIC's and oil countries are beginning not to use the USD and swap or use an other currency to trade and for reserves

You can't increase the money supply of a fiat currency that much with no consequences on its purchasing power, Oil, Gold or bitcoins are not inflating that much and the demand for them will be increasing more than the supply

The States has unsustainable liabilities in the tens of trillions that add up to 200trillions dollars, we are in a huge recession and the banksters and politicians have been buying time but the cost will be extremely expensive; there is no recovery, there is very difficult times aheas; the Dollar will lose most its purchasing power within a short time span such as a decade

Fair point, 2% inflation per year would give only a 7.2x multiply over a century, even that would be problematic unless you think 7x population and/or GDP is tennable, it's not by the way unless we develop off-world colonies.

But alas 2% is somewhat of an illusion, if you look at shadowstats they have done some impecable analysis, I would be interested to hear of any shortfallings you might find in their method.

By their reckoning inflation is wavering around 10% suggesting end-game might come sooner than many think:

http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=

1. Oh, I realize that.  I'm just pointing out that it's easy to pooh-pooh huge numbers at the beginning of a technology, but it can easily happen.
2. I realize that there may come a day when so many are using bitcoin that Russia, China and India can no longer ban it.  And if they continue to do so, they will lose to smaller countries around them that accept it and get the manufacturing contracts because they can transfer bitcoins instead of dealing with banking headaches.

OK.  When bitcoin reaches $100K, you promise to post a picture of your shaved head for proof.  (Is your last sentence a joke?)

Dollar parity is way too much. Sell before it crashes! Sell sell sell!

So you want to make a bet? I say that the dollar is not losing more than 3%/year in the next 5 years on average.



Consumer prices is what counts. I am anti-goverment and my invements would be happy if the dollar collapses. But it is 2% maybe. In that area. It is not more at this stage. Maybe, I don't know, I am wrong and it will get more. But the dollar is 200 years old. Even 50 years ago or 100 years ago many people thought the dollar will collapse. In that sense it is way more propable that the dollar will not inflate that by 10% or more in over serveral years. Ok 10% by one year might be possible but then the FED will suck in all the money and the dollar will be fine.

You wanna bet? I take it. I will take the chance that the dollar will only lose 16% (3% per year) in the next 5 years. Wanna bet? (normal inflation statistics.included computers, cellphones etc.)

It's impossible to get accurate inflation numbers for the simple reason that we are lied to. Nevermind that people have very different ideas about what inflation even means.

Consumer prices matters to consumers, and I agree they will set the perceptions of the masses. But you should realise that there is more to the game than the cost of a laptop.


Yes, and I will say the same for myself, maybe I am wrong. It's never good to close ones mind.


The word "dollar" may be, but the dollar used today, in it's pure fiat flavor, was launched in 1971 and is a completely different beast to it's prior asset backed flavor.


The bolded part indicates that you are only considering inflation from a consumers perspective.

You might try asking people who are in business how they feel.

I most certainly will post a picture of my head and scrotum if necessary. I will even wax my body with steak flavored wax and let my dog rip my hairs from my body to make it more of a true sacrifice.

Is my last sentence a joke??? hell no. I simply stated a few other laws of the universe that will never be proven wrong to help bolster the stature of my foresight and prophetic wisdom.

The FED won't su.ck in the money because it has never been done and it can't be done

It can raise the interest raise which would be devastating for the economy; it is what it should do now because it will be a necessary clean-up of the system and better than what we will get later; the same way it is better to stop dr.ugs sooner than later it is better to stop QE sooner than later but we will have the withdraw syndroms or Yellen will keep increasing QE as the USD collapse and we will die of an overdose

Wow you sound godlike!

The USD will collapse. Left to the devices of the USG/FED sure, they'll prop it up, inflate it, kick the can as long as possible, wrecking the economy every step of the way.

The thing of it is, however, is that it's not JUST at the discretion of the FED.

Remember the founding principle of bitcoin and virtual currencies being "faith based" no matter that it's backed by math? Joe and Bob *trust* one another per transaction which gives the unit of trade its intrinsic value, right?

Well, the more bitcoin is understood based on what's already happening and widely accepted, the higher the increase in mainstream adoption because more people will be putting their *faith* in the math backed invisible "virtual" currency over and above rectangular sheets of paper and metal coins, as much as the already invisible virtual faith they put into the value of the dollar in all of their online transactions that are also digital virtual.

For now, since it's new, the paradigm is inevitably about cashing out bitcoin for dollars because dollars spend mainstream. This is the single area that is in people's way - the difficulty in escaping the bindings of the USD as the "end result" instead of a bad forced alternative.

But to consider faith in a currency, when people en masse would sooner trust pretend money and just trust the next guy one on one than trust USD currency that should be all you need to know to recognize the writing on the wall for fiat currency issued by governments and private banks. That's like saying Joe would sooner use Monopoly money than USD if Bob accepts Monopoly money in trade for goods and services.

So for now, absolutely, many people will put money into bitcoin and escalate their holdings, then cash out and buy stuff, probably the big stuff like cars and houses and whatnot, to shore up physical security but keep investing in bitcoin to also increase their shore of wealth...which is the ultimate security because eventually it will be mainstream and then the lights will flip on for people that they've got a security blanket and it's perfectly fine to jump off the sinking ship once and for all...and the more people who do that will tank the remaining value of the USD once and for all. It wouldn't wreck the economy though because of adoption and the number of people who are now trading and earning bitcoin.

Governments can ban it all they want but what they can't do is enforce it...once that is understood, people would be more ready to adopt it.

As for purchasing power of the dollar, 10 years ago I bought a bag of Tostitos, a jar of dip, some shirts and a 12pk of cokes and it cost about 30 bucks. I just did that today and it cost me 96 bucks at Target. All the way home I was having the epiphany - I should've just bought into bitcoin!!!

:)