All these people claiming 1 BTC = 1 million+

[BitcoinTraders]

1 BTC can be worth 1million dollars in the future!

But only if dollar's price goes down so much...

[boumalo]

1 BTC can be worth 1million dollars in the future!

But only if dollar's price goes down so much...

That is a negative post about 1BTC=1,000,000USD; what about a postive post on BTC reaching that price : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=537916.new#new

To all who bet on fiat currencies, look at history of fiat currencies, they all fail, usually faster than slower

[molecular]

1 BTC can be worth 1million dollars in the future!

But only if dollar's price goes down so much...

That is a negative post about 1BTC=1,000,000USD; what about a postive post on BTC reaching that price : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=537916.new#new

The post you linked says pretty much the same thing, though:

The "will the bitcoin reach $1000 one day...?" is outdated so it is time for a 1,000,000$ post with the same fun title

I think the price will reach this level within 10years with the help of the USD losing value (USD crash starting in 2015?) and massive adoption of Bitcoin

[spazzdla]

Hyperinflation

Say it with us now

Hyperinflation

[CoinRocka]

Bitcoin is from the future, much like velcro.  Use and enjoy!

[Torque]

1. The ~10 minute confirmation time
2. The reliance on set encryption protocols which could be broken in the future (EC and SHA256). For something to become as big as a world currency, it needs to be trusted that the technology would last hundreds of years.
3. The blockchain size.
4. The amount of resources that the client uses on a device.
5. Other scalability issues, such as the amount of transactions which can be handled per minute.
6. Irreversibility of transactions.
7. The extreme ease of the average person losing coins due one of many vectors of mistakes and hardware failures, or hackers.
8. The technical difficulty for the average user trying to even use it.
9. Bitcoin commerce and usage has mostly formed within centralized entities even though it is supposed to be decentralized.
10. There are still humans who ultimately control Bitcoin and who must be trusted by its users, even though the system is supposed to be decentralized.
11. Volatility - it is not an attractive store of value for someone who just wants to use it as a store of value or a currency and isn't into investing or speculating.
12. The present distribution of wealth.
13. The reliance on the internet in order to function.
14. Also, what happens if the internet is split apart due to government firewalls.
15. Governments, corporations, and hackers could ultimate control and restrict Bitcoin usage if they really wanted. And mass adoption will not be reached when users have to do it illegally, run tor, and run checks on every client they download to make sure it isn't a hacked client. Even tor traffic or bitcoin traffic over tor could be blocked too by smart routers.
16. Some of the worlds most powerful contries have already banned or restricted it.

** add more here ** - anyone else is welcome

TERA - All of these points/deficiencies can eventually be overcome with time and development, as you already know.  Except for #14 through #16, which I agree with you... it may get crazier still in the next 2-3 years.  #15 could happen if digital currencies becomes enough of a threat to gov't/banks throughout the world, but the U.S. and other democratic leaning countries already know that trying to stifle technological innovation, even in the finance industry, is just a really bad idea and wouldn't go over very well with the populous.  It would backfire if they came down hard, because they loathe to take things away from people without cause.

Let's look back 15 years ago.  Remember when you still had to purchase web browsing software?  Remember when the free/open source software movement began?  Remember the Java/J2EE vs. .NET wars?  Remember when Linux came along to shake up IT in the Enterprise?  I do... and I remember when folks were shouting at the top of their lungs that free, open source software would NEVER trump non-free, proprietary software.  It would never work, they said, and would die a slow painful death.  Well look how that all turned out.

[durrrr]

i dont think its that unbelievable this could happen with mainstream adaption and like walmart and meijer and such accepting bitcoins and liqour stores and someway we can instantly quickyl pay a cashier in bitcoins.

[BitchicksHusband]

In 1994, a guy predicted that someday domain names would sell for $1 million.  Everyone said that he was an idiot for thinking that and for buying them and that they would never be worth anything.

In 2007, VacationRentals.com (just the name) sold for $35 million.  That was only 13 years after they said this.

Now, personally, I don't think bitcoin will go to $1 million each (although I would be thrilled if they do).  I personally think that $30,000-$40,000 will be the limit for a while, with $100,000 being an outside possibility.  It really would take something like BRIC switching to bitcoin instead of USD to change that, but BRIC (except Brazil) have all banned bitcoins virtually completely.

[theecoinomist]

What were they thinking? These people have a reputation, no one is going to take them for real making these claims. What's going to happen when nothing happens?

You make a statement based on your own assumption and therefore your post is flawed. I can post this chart as a counter argument and claim my assumption is superior to yours cause I attached graphics.

[porcupine87]

1. This is a problem for micropayments but any global decentralized system has a fuzzy notion of synchronization that requires a 30-120 second lag at this point. For example, compare how many orphaned blocks BTC creates to how many LTC creates. Maybe 10 minutes is too much, but 2 minutes is too little. I don't see changing much in the future barring A Breakthrough (TM) because as the internet grows, lag-per-bounce slowly creeps down (with physical limits given by switch reaction time and speed of light / EM field in copper wires) while the number of bounces should creep up (logarithmically in the size of the network maybe? I'm assuming that the internet is roughly tree-like). As reserve / settlement medium, this is not a problem.

This is exactly the point to calculate the value of one bitcoin when it accounts to let's say 5% of all money transactions in the world. You have 21mio. Bitcoins which is like the cash of dollars, euros etc. So you have to set the 21mio. relative to the cash in the world not all the fiat. (M1 or even M3)

There are about 800billion Euros. The Euro is mainly used in the EURO-zone which accounts for around 20% of the eorld economy, so about 4 trillion US in cash in the world.
1% of all transaction would mean a market cap of 40 billionen dollar so 2000$ for each bitcoin.
5% lead to 10 000$.
10% to 20 000$.

It might be higher: M1 is about 7 times more than the cash. M3 is 15times higher. The numbers above assume the same with Bitcoin but depending on regulation the reserve of service (visa like) would be higher. So maybe they have a 25% reserve so this would lead to 2times higher prices. Another point is, that many bitcoins might be lost forever and we have only 16mio. coins in Jan. 2017, 18.5mio. in jan 2021. Bitcoin could be seen as a store of value, too and maybe other technologies which may affect the price.  

It might be lower:
Maybe even if people use it they might see it as risky to hold btc depending on the volatility when it is adopted. Because of that and because money can be transfered much faster then bank wrie the  the velocity of money might be higher. So this means that it feels like the supply of bitcoins is higher and therefore its price lower.

For both: sure depending on the amount of transactions it will be higher or lower.

PS: These are just very round numbers and might be of by the factor of 1.5 or 2. Consider this.

[porcupine87]

In 1994, a guy predicted that someday domain names would sell for $1 million.  Everyone said that he was an idiot for thinking that and for buying them and that they would never be worth anything.

In 2007, VacationRentals.com (just the name) sold for $35 million.  That was only 13 years after they said this.

Now, personally, I don't think bitcoin will go to $1 million each (although I would be thrilled if they do).  I personally think that $30,000-$40,000 will be the limit for a while, with $100,000 being an outside possibility.  It really would take something like BRIC switching to bitcoin instead of USD to change that, but BRIC (except Brazil) have all banned bitcoins virtually completely.

1. Just because something has risen in value unexpected that means nothing. This is not an argument that my shit will be worth 1Mio. one day just because I am predicting this. This is like poeple assessing the value of altcoin. They just assume the market cap will be the same so if there are 4times more litecoins a litecoin will cost 25% of a bitcoin eventually and is right now way undervalued (2.8%). You could say this to all altcoins. Ah there will be 5000times more DOGE, so one DOGE will cost eventually 0.02% of a Bitcoin. And so on.
2. You have to think longterm. Leaders of countries chance and could make Bitcoin legal or even embrace it. For now it is easy to ban it because there is a tiny, tiny amount of voter to lose (or none, when you consider that many bitcoiners at this stage are anti-goverment so they don't vote anyway).

I am pretty sure it will get to new all time highs. $5000 should be no big deal. But I can only see this if the western goverment play along. But I think they will. Western countries are in the position to invent things. They cannot copy. And people do know that! So there is a certain amount of freedom necessary.

[g4c]

What were they thinking? These people have a reputation, no one is going to take them for real making these claims. What's going to happen when nothing happens?

You make a statement based on your own assumption and therefore your post is flawed. I can post this chart as a counter argument and claim my assumption is superior to yours cause I attached graphics.

excellent graphic, and proving to have already made a good prediction 5 months after the time you created it!

[DieJohnny]

zero chance bitcoin hits a million each, zero. I will sacrifice all the hairs on my body if it ever reaches 100k.

just think it through, 1 single bitcoin is worth a million dollars. That means anyone currently holding 1,000 btc will be a billionaire.

it will not ever happen, ever. the world will be in global meltdown and only one server will be maintaining the blockchain if we got anywhere close.

As sure as I am about global warming, the ineffectiveness of capital punishment, being born gay, the ethical standing of abortion, and the right mindedness of environmental decision making we will never ever see a million dollar bitcoin.

[boumalo]

zero chance bitcoin hits a million each, zero. I will sacrifice all the hairs on my body if it ever reaches 100k.

just think it through, 1 single bitcoin is worth a million dollars. That means anyone currently holding 1,000 btc will be a billionaire.

it will not ever happen, ever. the world will be in global meltdown and only one server will be maintaining the blockchain if we got anywhere close.

As sure as I am about global warming, the ineffectiveness of capital punishment, being born gay, the ethical standing of abortion, and the right mindedness of environmental decision making we will never ever see a million dollar bitcoin.

Even if the purchasing power of the Dollar is decreasing rapidly?

Prepare to "sacrifice all the hairs on your body"

[ThatDGuy]

zero chance bitcoin hits a million each, zero. I will sacrifice all the hairs on my body if it ever reaches 100k.

Is that really the best you can offer as a sacrifice?  It's just hair, it grows right back

[g4c]

zero chance bitcoin hits a million each, zero. I will sacrifice all the hairs on my body if it ever reaches 100k.

A German would probably have said the same about a loaf of bread reaching 1 million old Marks, but he would have been wrong.

None of us know the future with certainty.

[g4c]

zero chance bitcoin hits a million each, zero. I will sacrifice all the hairs on my body if it ever reaches 100k.

Is that really the best you can offer as a sacrifice?  It's just hair, it grows right back

Yeah, right, I suppose with some energetic laser treatment the follicles might be stunted for a few years but even still... It's hardly a sacrifice of biblical proportions...

[boumalo]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=537916.0;topicseen

1,000,000$ is probable

[GigaCoin]

1 Million per BTC is possible, a lot of things are possible but they don't necessarily happen.

1 Mill per BTC reminds me of the kitco Goldbugs, they were calling for $50,000 per ounce gold in 2012, look where gold is now. Both scenarios require a zombie apocalypse hyperinflation or unheard of amounts of magical money being pumped into them.

Bitcoin's price by design should always go up as adoption increases, I think $100,000 per btc is more realistic considering a very positive long term future scenario for BTC, with $5000-$10,000 per BTC in the short-mid term.

[rohnearner]

zero chance bitcoin hits a million each, zero. I will sacrifice all the hairs on my body if it ever reaches 100k.

Is that really the best you can offer as a sacrifice?  It's just hair, it grows right back

what you want to him to sacrifice..? may be a sex change operation? but he's safe in my opinion too at least in this life and then he might take birth again when btc reaches 1m$ with opposite sex