Bitcoin Forum

---

• It is over 1 year later since the start of the revolution, I wanna believe that the change is started cause of my thread here: Is the Default trust system still working/active? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5080581.0). Theymos was active on that thread and shortly after the new DT system has started.
  Me? I'm still active on the forum a bit less from last year got several problems in Real and now is not a great time.

Anyway, how the situation of the DT is going? Are we too many now? Do we need more restrictions? I think this is my 1st time since the introduction of the new system out the DT1 because is capped to 100.

• And the cause of RNG will determine the big variation of numbers of DT2 and even bigger of DT3-DT4 (no one cares about them anyway  ;D)
• The numbers of DT1 and DT2 before the introduction of the new DT system can be found here Is the Default trust system still working/active? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5080581.0)
• The updated log of DT1 monthly update can be found here: DT update log (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg54362943#msg54362943)
• The updated number of DT2 can be found on this LoyceV post here: Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5139250.0)
• The updated number of DT2 for the months of March 2019 and April 2019 are not tracked so I guessed a probable number around 350
• The Δ% is based on the previous month
• Data has been handwritten so some errors may be possible

---

---

_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________
MONTH	YEAR	DT1	DT2	Δ% DT1	Δ% DT2	DT1 EXLUDED
February	2019	13	182	0	0	0
March*	2019	68	350	423,1	92,3	0
April*	2019	80	350	17,7	0	0
May	2019	88	371	10	6	0
June	2019	111	424	26,1	14,3	11
July	2019	104	390	-6,3	-8,0	4
August	2019	106	445	1,9	14,1	6
September	2019	103	372	-2,8	-16,5	3
October	2019	111	438	7,7	17,7	11
November	2019	114	457	2,7	4,3	14
December	2019	124	572	8,8	25,2	24
January	2020	124	413	0	-27,8	24
February	2020	126	459	1,6	11,1	26
March	2020	131	465	4,0	1,3	31
April	2020	130	496	-0,8	6,7	30
May	2020	134	507	3,1	2,2	34

---

---

---

---

We have and AVG Δ% increase of 1.8% in DT1 on the last 10 months where data are in a stable condition and a Δ% of 2.8% in DT2

---

According to the model by April 2021 we will have more excluded DT1 by the cap than included on the 100 and around 1000 DT2

Try making some forecasts based on this data. Would be interesting to compare looking back sometime down the road. :)

Just putting here one update after 2 months.

https://i.imgur.com/3wtRpHI.png

---

---

_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________
MONTH	YEAR	DT1	DT2	Δ% DT1	Δ% DT2	DT1 EXLUDED
February	2019	13	182	0	0	0
March*	2019	68	350	423,0769231	92,30769231	0
April*	2019	80	350	17,64705882	0	0
May	2019	88	371	10	6	0
June	2019	111	424	26,13636364	14,28571429	11
July	2019	104	390	-6,306306306	-8,018867925	4
August	2019	106	445	1,923076923	14,1025641	6
September	2019	103	372	-2,830188679	-16,40449438	3
October	2019	111	438	7,766990291	17,74193548	11
November	2019	114	457	2,702702703	4,337899543	14
December	2019	124	572	8,771929825	25,16411379	24
January	2020	124	413	0	-27,7972028	24
February	2020	126	459	1,612903226	11,13801453	26
March	2020	131	465	3,968253968	1,307189542	31
April	2020	130	496	-0,763358779	6,666666667	30
May	2020	134	507	3,076923077	2,217741935	34
June	2020	140	418	4,47761194	-17,55424063	40
July	2020	128	441	-8,571428571	5,502392344	28

June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.

https://i.imgur.com/qeEEZeX.png

Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number?  It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago.  :/

bpip.org

The number of DT1 I use are from the Theymos' montly snapshot here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg54362943#msg54362943

https://i.imgur.com/waXS9tv.png  ;D

The situation quite stable was expecting a little more but the summer could influence the growth.

We are at a stable value of 40 DT1 excluded.

https://i.imgur.com/WDqoPSV.png

Update after summer.

https://i.imgur.com/VHMRIBO.png