coinlocket$ (OP)
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May 10, 2020, 12:45:40 PM Last edit: May 10, 2020, 05:07:41 PM by coinlocket$ |
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CONSIDERATIONS
- It is over 1 year later since the start of the
revolution, I wanna believe that the change is started cause of my thread here: Is the Default trust system still working/active?. Theymos was active on that thread and shortly after the new DT system has started. Me? I'm still active on the forum a bit less from last year got several problems in Real and now is not a great time.
Anyway, how the situation of the DT is going? Are we too many now? Do we need more restrictions? I think this is my 1st time since the introduction of the new system out the DT1 because is capped to 100. - And the cause of RNG will determine the big variation of numbers of DT2 and even bigger of DT3-DT4 (no one cares about them anyway )
- The numbers of DT1 and DT2 before the introduction of the new DT system can be found here Is the Default trust system still working/active?
- The updated log of DT1 monthly update can be found here: DT update log
- The updated number of DT2 can be found on this LoyceV post here: Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings
- The updated number of DT2 for the months of March 2019 and April 2019 are not tracked so I guessed a probable number around 350
- The Δ% is based on the previous month
- Data has been handwritten so some errors may be possible
People on DT1 and DT2
_____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | MONTH | YEAR | DT1 | DT2 | Δ% DT1 | Δ% DT2 | DT1 EXLUDED | February | 2019 | 13 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | March* | 2019 | 68 | 350 | 423,1 | 92,3 | 0 | April* | 2019 | 80 | 350 | 17,7 | 0 | 0 | May | 2019 | 88 | 371 | 10 | 6 | 0 | June | 2019 | 111 | 424 | 26,1 | 14,3 | 11 | July | 2019 | 104 | 390 | -6,3 | -8,0 | 4 | August | 2019 | 106 | 445 | 1,9 | 14,1 | 6 | September | 2019 | 103 | 372 | -2,8 | -16,5 | 3 | October | 2019 | 111 | 438 | 7,7 | 17,7 | 11 | November | 2019 | 114 | 457 | 2,7 | 4,3 | 14 | December | 2019 | 124 | 572 | 8,8 | 25,2 | 24 | January | 2020 | 124 | 413 | 0 | -27,8 | 24 | February | 2020 | 126 | 459 | 1,6 | 11,1 | 26 | March | 2020 | 131 | 465 | 4,0 | 1,3 | 31 | April | 2020 | 130 | 496 | -0,8 | 6,7 | 30 | May | 2020 | 134 | 507 | 3,1 | 2,2 | 34 |
Visual
Prediction
We have and AVG Δ% increase of 1.8% in DT1 on the last 10 months where data are in a stable condition and a Δ% of 2.8% in DT2 CONCLUSION Too Long; Didn't Read
According to the model by April 2021 we will have more excluded DT1 by the cap than included on the 100 and around 1000 DT2
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Lauda
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May 10, 2020, 12:53:35 PM |
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Try making some forecasts based on this data. Would be interesting to compare looking back sometime down the road.
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"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks" 😼 Bitcoin Core ( onion)
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coinlocket$ (OP)
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July 08, 2020, 03:12:25 PM |
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Just putting here one update after 2 months.
People on DT1 and DT2
_____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | MONTH | YEAR | DT1 | DT2 | Δ% DT1 | Δ% DT2 | DT1 EXLUDED | February | 2019 | 13 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | March* | 2019 | 68 | 350 | 423,0769231 | 92,30769231 | 0 | April* | 2019 | 80 | 350 | 17,64705882 | 0 | 0 | May | 2019 | 88 | 371 | 10 | 6 | 0 | June | 2019 | 111 | 424 | 26,13636364 | 14,28571429 | 11 | July | 2019 | 104 | 390 | -6,306306306 | -8,018867925 | 4 | August | 2019 | 106 | 445 | 1,923076923 | 14,1025641 | 6 | September | 2019 | 103 | 372 | -2,830188679 | -16,40449438 | 3 | October | 2019 | 111 | 438 | 7,766990291 | 17,74193548 | 11 | November | 2019 | 114 | 457 | 2,702702703 | 4,337899543 | 14 | December | 2019 | 124 | 572 | 8,771929825 | 25,16411379 | 24 | January | 2020 | 124 | 413 | 0 | -27,7972028 | 24 | February | 2020 | 126 | 459 | 1,612903226 | 11,13801453 | 26 | March | 2020 | 131 | 465 | 3,968253968 | 1,307189542 | 31 | April | 2020 | 130 | 496 | -0,763358779 | 6,666666667 | 30 | May | 2020 | 134 | 507 | 3,076923077 | 2,217741935 | 34 | June | 2020 | 140 | 418 | 4,47761194 | -17,55424063 | 40 | July | 2020 | 128 | 441 | -8,571428571 | 5,502392344 | 28 |
June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.
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Vod
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July 08, 2020, 03:43:40 PM |
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June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.
Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number? It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago. :/ bpip.org
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I post for interest - not signature spam. https://vod.fan - fast/free image sharing - coming Oct! Will Theymos finish his $100,000,000 forum before this one shuts down?
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coinlocket$ (OP)
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July 08, 2020, 04:09:59 PM |
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June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.
Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number? It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago. :/ bpip.org The number of DT1 I use are from the Theymos' montly snapshot here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg54362943#msg54362943
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coinlocket$ (OP)
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The situation quite stable was expecting a little more but the summer could influence the growth. We are at a stable value of 40 DT1 excluded. Update after summer.
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