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It was obvious that in the long run we would have seen the US economy recover, but honestly I wasn’t expecting US economy to recover so fast, or is this just another false positive for us?. I’m referring to the article posted by CNBC where they have shown stats which proves that the US economy has started recovering despite many states yet being in lockdown. What are your thoughts on this, will the US economy recover faster than what we had anticipated?.

Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/here-are-five-charts-illustrating-the-us-economic-recovery-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

From this graphs, imo things didn't fall that much.... Other than the airlines who took a massive dip, everyone else doesn't look like they had too much of a problem. Hotel occupancy only fell by half for example.

The global economy was obviously going to recover pretty quickly after lockdowns were lifted and I think it'd still be doing quite well since california and San Francisco seemed to lockdown early and that's where a lot of the technological parts of the economy come into play afaict...

I'm not convinced any of those charts show the economy is recovering.

The first four graphs are all markers of lockdown being eased as opposed to economic recovery. Apple Maps directions, restaurant bookings, hotel bookings, are all a sign of restrictions being lifted and people being allowed out again, but they don't say an awful lot about the state of the economy. The last graph regarding mortgages shows a relative increase, but that is on the back of a huge decrease over the preceding few months. It's more likely a simple rebound from all the people who had been planning to take out mortgages in March/April/May finally being able to, as opposed to any actual growth in the market.

This all also assumes that these trends are going to continue. We are seeing further spikes in cases recently, escalating death rates, and several states talking about reimplementing various lockdown procedures. I would be very surprised if the economy recovers to any meaningful degree this year.

this is part lie part reality. the drop itself was made bigger than it really was and it was partially because of panics. so it is natural for the world to resume itself after so many months and things have been starting to go back to normal again. of course the media is also exaggerating the recovery just like they exaggerated the doomsdays.

we should also not forget how much money US printed and injected in their economy to keep it afloat. it greatly negated the effects.

on top of all that US economy is being affected a lot by Chinese economy. the same way Chinese economy tanked then pulled US down, it has now been in recovery for about 10 days which should reflect on US economy too.

It didn't recover really, we still will experience aftermath of corona and quarantine effects on our economy.
However, temporarily we got rid of some of main problems, I wonder if it will worth it after all

They are in the process of recovering the economy but a "sudden" recovery isn't applicable here I think. It would be better if you didn't use the word suddenly as they are doing ways to recover the economy and they've started it already.

The decisions made by the government is quite risky since they are the epicenter of the virus already but they don't have any other choices but to do risky decisions for the sake of their economy. Also take note that they've printed too much money already and the increase in money supply in the US has increased greatly within the past 3 months (March to May) base on this site (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0).

They maybe in the recovery phase but the virus case in their country will still increase and the trend doesn't seem to go downwards.

What I see should not actually be called a real recovery, but only small positive developments in some sectors that have been most affected. I think it's insane to expect some sort of quick recovery to happen and for everything to go back to the previous numbers - because the recovery of a country the size of the USA is not something that depends only on them, but on the rest of the world as well. Of course, with the easing of measures, the economy is starting to recover, but we cannot measure it just by looking at how many people are staying in hotels or having dinner in restaurants, it is only a small part that makes up the overall recovery.

Given how the virus is behaving in Europe, we seem to have a second wave that is precisely the result of the easing or complete abolition of measures that have almost reduced the spread of the virus in some countries to zero. I believe that there will be no significant economic recovery anywhere in the world without finding an effective vaccine, because regardless of everything, the factor that affects the economy globally is fear and uncertainty.

I don't believe in sudden recovery on their economy but I guess it takes months before they will fully be recovered.
Country of the US is the most well-stablished country and I don't have doubt they will recover soon but not quickly, just like country of China the world second-largest economy that next to the US but as we can see now, they had a little improvement that supposedly same goes to the US.

Follow this topic that only focuses on President Donald Trump, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/Donald-Trump. I don't see any related topics of sudden recovering of their economy maybe not now but for sure it will recover soon.

I do not think that both the American economy and the world economy will recover in a fast or short term. Anyway, I just want to talk about my thoughts about the American economy without going too far. Although there is an inexhaustible demand for the US dollar, the FED printed an incredible amount of money in this pandemic process and I think that this printing issue will affect the economy in the long term. I think that it will seriously affect the American economy in many economic problems that will arise not only with these effects, but also due to the pandemic process, and that the American economy cannot recover in the short term period.

Travel related industries are the one who suffered the most, I saw a news from my country where the airline cut off the half of their employee since they can't handle the same number of staff during the pandemic. This goes the same with hotels, some tourist staying in a hotel were given extensions with lesser cost, this is the dilemma with businesses like this though it is very uncommon.

Some quarantined area were lifted up, some had to make it enhanced quarantine especially when the cases is rising rapidly. In USA, even they have million of covid cases, I guess they are handling it wisely coz the America is great right? haha. The problem that we had the most is that we aren't prepared for anything to happen like this, Feng Shui didn't let us know about this one. ( just kidding )

The date rate in America is what makes it look like it had a fallen economy but in real physical terms, I'm not convinced on that. Also the lack of dollar demand during covid-19 lockdown contributed but now that lockdown is eased out, demand is rising and recovery is showing up too.

Just a few days ago, the U.S. reached it's highest daily recorded cases of COVID with over 40,000 cases so we cannot say that they are suddenly recovering since they are still in the middle of fighting against the virus. The graph is more likely showing that businesses and the economy are starting to reopen again to recover what they have lost in the economy during the lockdown. So basically, it's like that they are still at the starting point.

But looking at the graph you provided, well, I guess it's a good sign for recovering. But if they failed to protect the people and handle the virus since they are already reopening businesses, I don't think their recovery phase will last longer. A lot of workers are still suffering from unexpected job losses due to the pandemic, and if it continues to increase, it may get worse.

The governments and people of Europe are dealing with this virus incredibly more effectively than we are in the US. As you say, some countries which have eased lockdown restrictions too early have seen a surge of cases and had to reimpose lockdown. However, large areas of the US seem to have given up on lockdowns altogether. I also haven't seen any reports coming out of Europe comparable to the ones from around the US of thousands of people refusing to wear masks or refusing to comply with basic infection orevention measures.

Many countries saw their peak back in March and April, and have been on a steady downward trend since then. The US also saw a peak in April, and is now speeding headfirst in to a bigger peak (see graph below - click for full size). This second peak also becomes harder to combat than the first. Not just for the obvious reasons of hospitals being more overwhelmed than before, but because of "lockdown fatigue". People who are only just being allowed to leave lockdown, to go out, to socialize, etc., will be very unwilling to re-enter lockdown, and many will refuse.

https://i.imgur.com/zO14ob5.png (https://i.imgur.com/zO14ob5.png)

It is far too early to start talking about economic recovery in the US in any meaningful sense. We haven't even hit the peak of the virus yet, and the Fed have already blown their load printing trillions of dollars out of thin air and dropping interest rates to zero.

Short Answer: No

1.48 Million More Americans Applied for Unemployment Benefits Last Week (https://time.com/5859451/us-unemployment-june/)

The ones given by the article is not really the major factors to consider that the economy is recovering it's not even how to spot if the economy is rising or not. From what I know the US has now a growing debt because of the pandemic as well as the massive protests happening US as of right now is a lot of things but one of it isn't really about their economy having a jump start at all.

I don't think so, there are countries which are also having a hard time recovering from economic crisis. Although US is a first world country, as there are also a huge cases in their territory, they will probably have a much harder economic recovery. Even China can't eliminate the virus in their country but their economy is stable, it is just because their products are still circulating globally.

US can do it, but I don't think that this is the time where they can recover their economy. Their government has a lot of sectors that should prioritize including the health sector, agricultural and especially the economy sector. If they want to recover from economic crisis, they should make a plan about opening some business safely.

It is not "suddenly recovering", it is just getting back outside which means there will be return obviously. Nobody could compare an economical situation where people stay at home for months to a situation where people are finally going outside.

Even though economy still sucks and even though there are still 13% unemployed numbers, even though many small business went out of business, and even though there are tons of other horrible stuff, the statistics will show an improvement only due to the fact that people are back outside and spending money again. This is why I think it is quite important to know the difference between "unrealistically horrible" to " very bad", when you see an improvement from one to another it may look like recovery but it is in fact not a recovery but an obvious change.

In my country, after the government eased the lockdown to an extent where people could go out, markets and businesses could open and some other sectors, it passed a wrong message to our citizens that things are totally back to normal and the economy recovering, but after some weeks now, positive cases of Covid-19 increased and the government are forced again to shut down the states that are affected the most.

Imo it'll be like this for some time, there is prolly no economic recovery in sight at the moment, even in the US. In the long run some countries will recover faster than others, as they have always had a better economy and America is one of those countries, but for now with all the the talk of rising unemployment and recession, they still have a long way to go.

I agree with you.
All of us had suffered big losses and even though US has a lot of resources but I can't think they can recover shortly. In fact, many experts say that the global economic status will be getting worse if the situation won't start to flatten. The more this virus spreads, the more it prolongs the recovery of the economy. It surely US will recover sooner (the same with the others) but not this time and not a good idea for them to fully resume business operations and lifestyle in order to make a huge recovery otherwise the crisis will still continue and it getting worse in their place.

Completely agree. That article is grasping at straws. There was pent up demand in the real estate market after the lockdowns restricted the spring buying season. I'm not sure that mortgage applications recovering to previous levels says a whole lot about the big picture anyway.

Not much actual economic data here. I have a feeling Q2 numbers (company earnings, retail sales, unemployment) coming out next month will put a damper on some of this optimism.

All the Fed interventions are widening the chasm between the stock market and the actual economy. May unemployment at 16.3%, U-6 unemployment (adds discouraged and marginally attached workers, and those working part-time for economic reasons) almost hit 25%. The window to apply for PPP loans (the government program paying companies to keep workers on the payrolls) ends today, and the extended unemployment benefits are set to expire in July. Senate Republicans have indicated that provision won't be extended, at least at current levels.

Given that the virus seems to be getting worse across the country and businesses are already running at limited capacity, a swift recovery to pre-pandemic productivity and employment levels seems nearly impossible now. 15-20 million jobs are not going to be created overnight. And as stimulus provisions begin winding down, we may begin seeing more business failures that were previously being delayed by band-aids measures.

Not only US had suffered but the rest of the countries are totally affected by covid 19 pandemic. But since most of the lockdows are already lifted, people are starting going out and those who have still jobs to return are already working again. I am expecting this already that US economy will still recover but not as quick like this. Country might not even recover even a year after but i'm glad that things are starting to go back to its new normal.

https://i.imgur.com/Tt1kDiu.jpg

The mortality curve of corona appears to be on the decline ^. Infections are rising while lethality appears to significantly decrease.

The media is trying to hype a second deadly wave of the virus. Somewhere between those conflicting paradigms is where we may determine whether a quick recovery is on the way. If the lethality of the virus continues to diminish, eventually there will be no need to quarantine or close businesses. Life will return to some semblance of normality. As near to it as we might get.

The US stock market would seem to indicate a recovery may be imminent. Equity market whale traders would be expected to have the best and most accurate information on the topic. I hope the US stock markets near recovery indicates the worst of the crisis is passed. The only thing casting doubt on the accuracy of market recovery is the potential of the federal reserve injecting liquidity to artificially prop markets up above where they should be.

Personally, I'm hoping for a quick recovery. Followed by greater decentralization of supply lines, trade and everything else which might help to prevent a disaster like this in the future.

From the analysis, necessary steps has been taking in time to minimize the deep effect by the pandemic. Traveling well controlled, hotel services dropped, trading was also controlled and people cooperated and complied. Though the graph showed economy has not been productive but when those who are managing the economy are secured the economy will recover faster as they resume

Since the United States lifted the lockdown and everything is back to normal businesses have reopened and the impact of the virus in their country may have been much under control. But it is a long time to recover from the damage done to the country's economy by the virus Since the US has started everything it will return to normal more easily than other countries.

The government has not been coherent with situations surrounding the invisible enemy in the person of Covid-19. Easing the lockdown isn't the solution to the problem entirely.Are there measures put in places by the people and the government to ensure social distancing is maintained to a certain stage? I know we still have a long battle with the Covid-19.

Some economies will recover faster than others it is simple ideology behind strategic planners in the economy sector of the fast rising economies.

Depends what you mean incredible...in the number of infectious cases, yeah Europe has done better, when it comes to deaths...nope.
The US with all the drama is still below France, Italy , Spain and the Uk, with Belgium in another league of its own.
If we go deeper and we compare the number of deaths per confirmed cases, it's even worse for Western Europe.

For example, France vs Us, per mil population.
Infection:
2,525  vs 8,242   France is better. 4.x
Deaths:
457    vs  393   US is better  1.11
Deaths per infection:
1/5     vs 1/20   US is better by 4x

The problem is what happens next...
We in Europe have somewhat managed to contain the virus, but we can't do this forever, sooner or later other cases will appear, and then others, you can't lock the whole continent.
At which point more people will get infected, another wave of infection and unfortunately deaths.
What would be interesting to know would be, if possible, the number of deaths per total infected people, a number no-one knows and it's just approximation, 5%-20% in some cases even 50%.
If the US has a higher rate like 30% of the population has come in contact with the virus it means the numbers of deaths will just triple if it's only 10%, it means 10x.

Just because you have saved your country now doesn't mean you can keep it locked forever and with this number of cases all over the world sooner or later even the countries that claim they've contained it will give up, and when this happens it will be just like the reverse of the Columbian exchange.

Back to the economy, I have a feeling it's going to be not so bad as some doomsday lovers want it to be nor it will recover in a flash, as I said in other threads before, right now I have a feeling it's going to be way less dramatic than the 2007 crisis. The car industry is back at 100%, so are all the businesses related to, agriculture didn't take a hit at all, the constructions are back, what is left is tourism but I think this will pick up also in 3-4 months. Of course, time will tell but I'm optimistic about what I'm seeing in my town and around me.

I think, that yes. FED just printed money and everyone gets happy, except people whose money are getting less and less valuable. That's why people should spend their money on something which is not having so big inflation or just buy some things.

The market is front running an actual economic recovery. That doesn't mean one is imminent, it just means investors are optimistic. They also know that worst comes to worst, the Fed will bail out the market and keep blood out of the streets.


Aren't we all? :)

As a contrarian trader, I'm just nervous when I see lots of optimism. In terms of job losses, the current situation blows 2008 out of the water. It will take years to recover those jobs. If stock markets continue to new ATHs despite high double digit unemployment, it'll show how truly perverted the markets have become from central bank intervention.

It seems so at the moment, but it's too early to say this for sure.

Compare the graph you posted with the graph I posted on the previous page. Peak new confirmed cases for the US was near the start of April. Peak deaths was mid to late April. There is a lag of 2 to 3 weeks between new cases and mortality rates. The graph you posted ends on June 22nd. 2 to 3 weeks before that, in early June, was the lowest number of daily new cases we have seen in the US since this all began. Now that cases are spiking again, it will be mid to late July before the mortality figure reflect this.

Given the number of countries we have seen that have opened up and then had to reimpose lockdown restrictions, I would say a second wave is almost inevitable at this point. The big concern at the moment for healthcare systems is that for the Northern Hemisphere the second wave could coincide with flu season.

Yeah, thankfully I live in an area which hasn't been that badly hit at all, and has generally had very sensible policies coming from local government and healthcare providers. As you say, what I see locally is good, but much of the country and the world is not in such a good situation.

Printing money however is a fake way to show that an economy is recovering.
In long term this is going to put the US economy in bigger economic crisis due to the rise of inflation.

If we look at the indexes of the top stocks, we will be able to confirm that the US economy is recovering but the reality is not like that. The US government provided people with subsidies but most people used the money to buy stocks. That's why US stocks are growing but their real economy is still in ruins. in the future we will see the consequences of covid 19 left and will witness a strong dump once again. This year of 2020 is still a bad year for the United States and I see no opportunity for growth.

If we only look at the statistics then to someone who observes it from a distance it may seem so. But even within the EU itself, things looked pretty chaotic at first, because each country had some ideas of its own and it took a month to agree on some things. The situation is now getting worse in some countries that have had 0 new cases in 2-3 weeks and now have 50-100 new cases a day again. This is the price that must be paid if the borders are opened and people can move freely - only two weeks after the incubation period is over, we return to the old state.

But at least as far as the EU is concerned, there is currently no talk of re-locking, but moving in the direction of acting locally in places where the virus appears. What was also found was that the virus had weakened because most of the infected have very mild symptoms and few end up in the hospital at all. This is most likely due to the very high temperatures currently in the EU, which in some ways weakens the strength of the virus.


My opinion is that the virus has spread more than it should in the USA because of the protests that took place just at an inconvenient time. So many people in everyday interaction is nothing but a time bomb that unfortunately exploded, the results are more than visible. In Europe, everything went to hell when the Champions League match was played in Milan (Atalanta-Valencia, February 20) in front of 40 000 spectators, which had catastrophic consequences for Italy and Spain, but also for the whole of Europe.

I just hope that the announced vaccine will be effective (AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine to be shared across Europe, says France (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-france/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-to-be-shared-across-europe-says-france-idUSKBN23M15T)), and I see they mention in some other newspaper articles that the USA will receive a sufficient amount of vaccine for its needs.

In my opinion, these charts are not enough to cover the big picture which is that majority of the world will probably take a couple of years at the very least to recover from a crisis of such epic proportions.

The big point that many seem to forget is that the virus is still active currently and there is no vaccine available yet which means an economy that looks like it's recovering could go to hell just like that at any moment thanks to COVID.

There is a growing consensus the protests did not cause the recent spike in infections:


https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/protests-in-seattle-and-elsewhere-dont-appear-to-be-driving-virus-surge-researchers-say/
https://time.com/5861633/protests-coronavirus/

I think it's more about the "lockdown fatigue" o_e_l_e_o mentions. Younger people are comprising a growing share of new cases, suggesting they are probably socializing more and not complying with distancing and mask standards. Plus, economic reopening and all that. I'm sure the protests played a role too though.

In any case, state governments seem pretty dead set against re-implementing full lockdowns. I do wonder what will happen if hospitals start getting overcrowded though.

Maybe it was done by the same people who probably influenced President Trump to treat the virus like the common flu - “The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April,” source (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-believes-coronavirus-will-vanish-with-april-temps-experts-are-skeptical-warm-weather-alone-is-enough-2020-03-12). It seems a rather strange explanation to me personally, but it is clear to me that the US administration has been doing everything from the beginning to minimize the problem, because as ugly as it sounds, the economy comes first.

If we compare the current number of deaths in the USA (130,000), it would mean that this virus is more deadly than the combined Vietnam, Korean, Iraqi and Afghanistan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war) wars in total with just above 100 000 killed soldiers.


Then the Italian scenario is inevitable, people who could have been saved were literally dying in the hallways and waiting rooms because there were not enough respirators to give them a chance to fight for their lives. But I hope that will not happen, because the pandemic has been going on for almost 3 months and the production of protective equipment and respirators is at the highest possible level around the world.

We are far better prepared from a healthcare perspective for a second wave, that much is true. This is for multiple reasons. First of all, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) production has ramped up massively over the last few months - everything from gowns and gloves to respiratory masks and body suits. My hospital now has a significant stockpile of these, with more readily available as required. Secondly, none of the preparatory work needs to be done again. Everything from making sure every member of staff is tested to see which size of respiratory mask fits them best, to expanding ICU in to adjacent areas and redesigning rotas to meet the increased capacity. We can "hit the ground running" with a second wave, so to speak. Thirdly, we know more about the virus. We know the course it takes and we know the complications it causes. We are starting to get good data about which drugs and medications are and are not effective.

The limiting factor from a healthcare point of view for the second wave I think will no longer be how many ventilators there are - as you say, production has ramped up massively over the last few months. The limiting factor is going to be the availability of staff with the knowledge and training to operate a ventilator. The virus causes a condition know as ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome. Incorrect use of a ventilator at the best of times can be life threatening, but with ARDS the lungs are so fragile that ventilatory parameters have to be very carefully controlled.

Coincide all of that with the next flu season, which already puts a huge strain on intensive care resources, and even with the increased numbers of ventilators it won't take a huge number of new cases to saturate hospital capacity like we saw in Italy. If people are being denied life saving treatments and dying in the corridors and on the floor, I can't see how new lockdown restrictions wouldn't be implemented. Whether or not people actually stick to them is another thing altogether, though.

If we do hit that scenario, the economy is going to take another beating. As we've said above, the Fed are quickly running out of options to keep the economy afloat. Print more money? Negative interest rates? Helicopter money? All we are seeing at the moment is a small rebound as lockdown restrictions are eased. We definitely can't call this economic recovery yet, and although obviously I hope that recovery is swift and the concerns about a second wave are unfounded, the worst may yet be to come.

As what you've said, US is considered as the epicenter of this virus right now. The US government is really having a hard time to control this virus and they are experiencing huge economic crisis. I'm really not that sure if they are recovering slowly because i don't see any improvement in their country.

China is the real origin of this virus, but the improvement in their economy is extremely fast. The way that they handle this pandemic is really effective and they still have a stable economy. US leader is focusing on blaming China than fixing and prioritizing their own economy.

Maybe, that's the reason why they are struggling so hard to recover their economy.

well in reality it is not. the mortality rate is also increasing as the number of new infected cases has increased to the point where it is currently at its all time high.
the reason why the reports show less death rate is because some of the Coronavirus deaths are being categorized under a different cause of death such as lung failure, heart disease and similar causes that share symptoms with COVID alongside a false negative result for the dead patients' COVID test.

It does kind of resemble a false positive but also doesn't at the same time. Economical stats and everything looks like they are fine and by all accounts American economy definitely looks like suddenly recovering and doing much better. However one thing that doesn't add up is the fact that American economy in general shouldn't be going this well with record high 13% unemployment rate for example, a lot more people who do not have enough money to survive even though they have a job.

So, we have two things in our hands right now, one of them is all the charts looking like American economy is doing awesome, but all the stats about poor people looks like its getting worse, which one would you believe? I do not know which one to believe honestly because stock market is usually the biggest say in the economical markets.

I do not believe that the United States economy recover faster, because the 5 charts in the CNBC article do not prove that the economy
United States is recovering very fast. These charts only show the upward movement of businesses due to lockdown being lifted. Assessing
economic recovery is not enough to rely on these charts, it must be completed with other data. But this is news positive in my opinion,
because the United States began the pace of economic recovery. I believe the United States economy will recover, but it's not will be fast
with the pandemic condition still running.

We should not focus on the US economy only, we should think of other country if their economy is recovering.

Countries have different number of cases and probably it has also a different effect in the economy.

In Vietnam, they already recovered the last patient in their country and right now they are in a process of recovering.. They allowed the operation of small and large businesses with a new set of rules and regulations to prevent the risk of spreading the disease again. Hopefully, US should somehow recover from their economic crisis because they are a huge country that also have a huge number of Covid-19 cases.

Trump has indicated more helicopter money is coming, and I'm sure Powell welcomes it. There's no denying the combination of QE and the CARES fiscal package provided a powerful boost to the markets in March and early Q2. I don't see why they can't do it again. Keep slapping those band-aids on!

Maybe one of these days the Fed will ratchet up the insanity and just start buying stocks outright. :P

We all knows that how much money was injected into US economy during lockdown so this is not the real growth,its like a short term recovery possible manipulated by big hands.Dont believe everything reported by Media because they are also playing major part in this manipulation.

Nope, you should focus on the US and Vietnamese should focus even more.
When 20% of your exports totaling 35 billion are going to the US you have to pray they are not shutting down and leave you with no place to sell, no need for your merchandise, no need for workers, and all that comes with this. Imagine the hit when so many people that produce goods worth that much a year are left with nothing to do.

There a lot of people in some countries that are focusing more on others than themselves, Vietnam is one, Thailand is other, they are depending on tourism,  they claim they are now safe but I wonder how much is really true and if they are not lying just to get tourists back in as without them they can kiss goodby to 15% of their GDP. It's the fate of small countries, they must look at what happens in the US in the EU, because if those markets are not buying their stuff and their citizen are not spending money they will follow them in the economic crisis.

There are also other ways that economy could look great while also not being that great. You could always allow the companies that bankrupting or close to not pay taxes, that's it, you can delete all of their taxes and that way they will be "profitin" trillions of dollars combined, and that will take the stock market up. See how easy it is to bring the stock market up?

You didn't helped anyone but those companies, all the people are still poor, everything is still bad, yet at the end of the day they are still looking like the economy is going great. This is the reason why I always say that economy is not what you see on stats but what you feel in your pocket, if everyone feels like the economy is bad, that is because it really is, that is why I think it matters to realize economy everywhere in the world could get better if it wasn't for greedy companies and shady politicians.

There is no bigger secret about what to do for economies to bounce back.. The entrepreneurs and government need a better cooperation that is deliberate to restart the economy. That is, small business owners need to be encouraged by financing them properly.

The small business owners were already facing financial problems and due to lockdown the problems for those have also increased because they weren't able to sell any products so many of those had to close down their business. So bailouts should be done in order to restart their businesses.
But unlike other countries America have actually saved most of their economy by sacrificing just a small part of it and the economy haven't taken a major hit as compared to other countries.

Based on what I have saw in the charts provided by the OP, what I can say is that US is still on the process of recovery and that is not all of a sudden because if you would see and interpret the chart readings, there are still downward flow which will truly state how precautionary measures are being implemented just to be able to make recovery of their economy.

US has been known to have the most cases of covid-19 infection world wide so it is still struggling to do a recovery as of this moment. Yes it is recovering but still on a process and that is not all of a sudden because step by step procedures to maintain the safety of the people must be put into priority. Slow re-opening of business establishments is the key for a somehow slow recovery of the economy so that people can do have their jobs back. What we can see on the charts are the effect of the measures done by the people and the government to be able to conduct their economic recovery. It will still be a long process to be while vaccine is still not yet discovered.

Recovering? The financial crisis is yet to come. It's inevitable that the world will go through tougher situation in the upcoming months. Currently, Govs are trying to pull back economy by declaring financial packages but if lockdown continues then all businesses will be in loss and people will lose their jobs. But how long Govs will support they have limited control beyond that there could be a huge financial crisis.
If the whole world goes through this situation then US economy will be no exception.   

I think all countries before taking a foreign policy will always consider American policy as a barometer of the world economy and also as a superpower country whose hegemony is indeed recognized by the World. The strength of American influence is still large in the world and America is still the price maker of commodity prices in the world.

The success of handling Covid-19 in Vietnam and Taiwan is inseparable from the readiness based on experience and preventive measures to avoid similar cases in the bird flu pandemic that occurred in 2005. The pandemic was a major blow after the economic downturn due to the trade war between America and China, the economic downturn due to the pandemic was felt by all countries. What is different is only the economic resilience of each country in countering the policies adopted by America. We take the example of developing countries that are close to China and incorporated in the OBOR program, crossed out by the Americans in the list of developing countries, so they cannot enjoy preferential tariffs from America and lose their market in America.

Well then since USA is one rich country theb that may be  possible. However,  since we are still in pandemic and most of the establishment were being lockdow this means that it could be a false information due to the fact that the economy of the country depen on the productivity of the people may it be working or establishment owner.

So far, the US has highest number of cases and deaths of covid19. Hopefully the US and all the countries and people get infected with covid will be able recover and we will heal as one

Why the title says "Suddenly Recovering"? does it is something to celebrate if they really do?

USA is one of the most affected from this virus so let us be with them in their fight to return their great economy .

The whole world suffer from this pandemic but it doesnt mean we are in different position,Not because we are more safer than them means we must treat them as others.remember that this fight is for all of us to win and not by individual.

Many developed countries in the United States have been able to control the epidemic very quickly despite being locked out due to the massive expansion of their trade. The United States has not had much of an impact on its economy because of its high productivity rate and low inflationary impact Due to which they are able to recover everything very quickly by taking necessary precautions.

The economy has just started to recover recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but the recent surge in new Covid-19 cases may hinder that rebound as certain areas are forced to delay or walk back reopening efforts.

I believe that every US citizen will feel in everyday life changes in the country's economy, if there is a real recovery. According to the head of the White House’s National Economic Council, Lawrence Cadlow, economic recovery will be quite progressive and fast, and already in the second half of 2020, 20 percent economic growth and a large-scale decline in unemployment are expected.
But at the same time, an American infectious disease scientist warns that the COVID-19 epidemic has just begun.

The whole world looks to be recovering, I don't know how we overcame this situation and how we managed to make the most out of our stay at home moments but looks like, US markets, other nation markets, gold, bitcoin, oil, basically everything is back on the rise again. I do not really understand why we didn't become even worse or why we are recovering but that is at least a bit better feeling than what it looked like when it first started.

There is still a ton of unemployed people, tens of millions of unemployed people, but at least some of them were rehired so I guess things are looking better, sure it is a setback and sure it sucks, I would rather see a world where everyone is rich, nobody works, and we just have fun, but right now that is not the case and that means some people will be left behind according to capitalist rules.

   Coinfinger in one short moment I thought the same, that world looks like it's recovering. But I changed my mind, US have to
most new cases, China and Spain locked some provinces, new measures in every county. I think that this is just the beginning
of the new way and that can bring a disaster to the global economy, if that didn't happen already.
   Now we need to be smart and to follow the rules, to try to keep some money because hard times are coming!

It is not so easy to recover us economy or any other country. Because economy depends a lot of things and as i thing, it will reach as his/her best to take time to get normal their position. Hopefully, it will slove as soon as possible.     

Markets stabilizing does not mean the economy has recovered - at the moment it is simply an indication of the insane amount of fiat the Fed and other central banks are pumping in to the system. I mean, the Fed are now directly buying corporate bonds. Meanwhile, we are on track for record unemployment levels. How are things going to look in a couple of months' time when millions of people are claiming unemployment and other benefits, have run out of savings, default on their loans, default on their mortgages, etc. Consumer spending will be way down even once everything has reopened, and many of the businesses which haven't already been bankrupted by COVID will struggle to stay afloat. Expect more downsizing, more branch closures, more unemployment.

This is on the back of the fact that in the US we are setting a new record for the number of new daily cases each and every day. We barely had this contained during lockdown. Lockdown is now over in many places, and cases are skyrocketing. We are long way off from recovery yet.

it is not easy to restore the country's cycle back to normal, this is a major economic crisis in every country exposed to the impact of this co-19 ...?
I imagine that the government is not wrong to use it as an opportunity in co-19 conditions to align people into appropriate behavior which is not quite right. there is the same as my thinking?

Some markets (like the NASDAQ 100 index) have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The economy is not even close no matter what you look at. Jobs, retail data, GDP projections.......everything is way down.

The goal posts are obviously shifting. The US economy is still down what, 13-14 million jobs since February? Apparently this is something to celebrate. "Spectacular news for American workers" Trump says. ::)

New ATH for Amazon, new ATH for the NASDAQ, and the S&P 500 is at the top of its range and threatening new highs.

Logically the stock markets and economy will eventually converge again. Either stocks will fall when the economic recovery disappoints the market, or the economic recovery will speed up to meet the market's expectations.

With stimulus programs wrapping up and Republicans low balling any further bills, these are a few neutral to bearish perspectives I think are worth keeping in mind:

Citi expects stocks to go sideways for a year, suggests defensives (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/citi-expects-stocks-to-go-sideways-for-a-year-suggests-defensives)


Goldman Sachs thinks the US recovery is running into trouble (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html)


Financial analyst Gary Shilling says the stock market could see a 1930s-like decline (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/gary-shilling-says-the-stock-market-could-see-a-1930s-like-decline.html)


Shilling doesn't have the best track record with these kinds of calls, but I think his logic and read on sentiment is spot on this time. The problem is it's really hard to bet against the Fed and their QE infinity.

The United States will be really able to recover after sometime because of the fact that people will always look for ways to recover. Some business are not always relying on the government because they know that they need to stand on their own for their businesses to prosper. Also, United States holds some of the biggest companies that can really withhold their economy like Amazon and other related e-commerce.

Why do you think that the cases are sky rocketing in the US ?

People did not listen to the restrictions which were put forth by the government and therefore most of the small businesses were open , in the small villages the life never even changed , at some places they don't care about the coronavirus now.

Most of the businesses were open , plus one's that were able to shift from office to home did have even a better outcome. Call centres , offices , schools , colleges everyone is working and was working from the day of quarantine. People who did loose customers and such , they had to find new ways to earn and therefore the economy recovered in a short while.

People changed according to the pandemic , which is natural and very important for the community as a whole for the survival. I remember the words of a famous botanist at this time : Change is the nature of nature. Even if the virus stays , we can easily evaluate that the life might be different , but it won't stop.

I do not think that this is objective information. On the one hand, the situation is too embellished by the authorities, and on the other, a lot of dollars are printed. Now the United States has the largest number of coronavirus infected - more than 2 923 000 people. This country is now in first place for these sad statistics. Also, the unemployment rate has increased significantly, which means that the economy has fallen sharply.

it's all a natural thing for the US to recover quickly because of a country which is domiciled in developed countries. but if I compare it with China, it can be the most superior in accelerating economic recovery and so on.?
and between the two countries it is natural because their development is very fast and as a state of good authority in terms of elements, and other countries are channeled gradually following the stable new growth....?

US is witnessing the second wave of the pandemic recently with over 50k cases recorded recently in a day which goes a long way to tell us the economy recovery will be very difficult. Currently the US government is having a serious argument with the education board that has makes it clear that student will not resume schools. US economy recovery policy is flexible but there is currently no certainty that the economy will recover rapidly

Two scary headlines today regarding the economy:

WHO: Indoor airborne spread of coronavirus possible (https://apnews.com/648feb226473f9841920abd6ffb004c7)

That hints at a slower recovery since people will be more hesitant to frequent indoor businesses like restaurants, bars, theaters, gyms, etc. That is if local governments don't just start shutting those kind of businesses down again.

States with severe coronavirus outbreaks should ‘seriously look at shutting down,’ Dr. Fauci says (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/states-with-severe-coronavirus-outbreaks-should-seriously-look-at-shutting-down-dr-fauci-says.html)

That's the last thing the markets want to hear. The S&P 500 dumped 2% on the news but recovered into the day's close. BTC followed, naturally.

It feels like investors mostly have blinders on, with everybody so strongly against shutting down again that they've just decided in their minds it's not going to happen. They may be in for a rude awakening if hospitalizations keep up at this rate. I wouldn't be surprised if California is the first to shut down again, like they were in March. That would trigger major dumps.

It feels like the market still wants to push higher, but the sentiment and underlying fundamentals are very dangerous. We could be heading into a judas swing type pattern, where the next upside breakout quickly reverses into a crash.

To be clear though, this is still not the 2nd wave they said it is still a part of the first wave. The first wave is still not flattened out and the reason for these new cases popping up is that the lockdowns are loosening up.



As they said, the market is having good movements but that doesn't mean that the economy will be regaining that easily. This will really take years especially if we still experienced the 2nd wave which I hope we wouldn't.

Thats a bounce not a recovery as such, has to be a trend of growth to really count as more then just a wave forward after being restricted and held back deliberately.   Its very common to regain some of a large move previous especially if it were in some way false or over done.   Its possible we see negative figures on the next or I'd expect some disappointment and quite lax retraction in future towards where GDP was previously.
   A recession is two quarters of negative growth and so we should at least wait 2 quarters to see how this will pan out but its good theres a large retake of jobs, etc.   I dont expect to judge it fully till we have a vaccine available to millions.

There are a lot of people who are misunderstood the economy of US, yes they are recovering but it will take more years in order for them to recover all of the losses that they incurred. There are a lot of jobs that are been lost because of this pandemic and there are businesses that are now totally closed because they cannot cover their expenses anymore. For those who want to understand the U.S. market more, try to view the bigger picture where you consider the GDP, the Stock market and the business that are currently operating and also if they unemployment rate decrease.

USA is a very rich country because of their unlimited resources.
I think, it would be easier for them to recover after all this Crisis, or maybe after they lift up all community quarantine...they will be back into place so fast and will always be the King of the world.

i think so,  besides that it could indicate that America is indeed a Superpower. this is reasonable because American manufactured goods are the largest in the world, have world famous brands up to be the king of the world's currencies

I don't really believe in the fast recovery of the US economy..  now almost all countries feel the impact of minus economic growth.  before the vaccine really exists, economic growth in almost all countries including the US will slow down..

https://i.imgur.com/xNczQFG.png
source: https://www.bea.gov

USA is a country that has so many resources and they can quickly recover if their economy will fall, i believe that USA is a great  country they are so advanced in terms of technology so i think ot is not questionable if they recover vey fast if there are crisis, i think we need to put basis on USA as a model for us to also easily recover if there are crisis.

Well, as we all know  US belongs to 1st world country . As expected even if their economic growth are effected by this pandemic they could easily recover. Compare to the 3rd world country it take years or the worst is decade to recover. But if every country helps one another maybe it will not take a years to recover.

The U.S. economy is recovering because the U.S. is developed in all aspects.  They are able to recover very easily even if their country's economy is damaged by being at the top of the list compared to other countries. The United States of America is the first source of everything in the technology business trade exchange in the world.  Each of their companies is far ahead in terms of crypto investment.

The global economy was obviously going to recover pretty quickly after lockdowns were lifted and I think it'd still be doing quite well since california and San Francisco seemed to lockdown early and that's where a lot of the technological parts of the economy come into play afaict...

I think it's true that US economy are now going to recover quicky after lockdowns.Also we know how strong the economy of US that's why it was not a surprise if the economy has a fast recovery from the worst caused of pandemic.Covid pandemic won't  bring down the US economy.

If that is the case, then an economic recovery may take many years. During the last 4-5 days, the United States has reported anywhere between 60,000 to 70,000 cases per day. And remember that this count is even more than the highest daily count we had, even during the peak of the first wave (when states such as New York and New Jersey were affected in April-May).

@Vishnu.Reang yea the US economy is faltering again, and the recent surge in cases is the primary reason why the economy has started falling downwards again. Further the jobs sector which had gained in June has also gone down, and this is not a good sign for the US citizens. Lastly I’m not sure how will Trump be able to accelerate the economy by September, as he had claimed that by September US economy will be back on track.

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-11/five-real-time-charts-show-signs-economic-recovery-is-faltering

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/06/trump-recovery-summer-304384

Indeed. but if the virus lasts a long time, it could mean a slow recovery of the state. and if it is handled incorrectly it might be quite bad. if it makes something structural that inhibits recovery. however, if the pandemic will be lifted in the next few months, it can be observed as a good thing. in the future, in my opinion what impact will that have?

Yes, even those rich countries are affected by covid-19. And as you have said, they are now starting to go back to normal even with the alert of the pandemic. The economy is starting to recover as many business establishments are open again.

I think US is ready for the aftermath of Covid virus. They are opening the economic of the country like also in other country despite of pandemic to avoid total collapse of the economy and to help the people to live a normal life again even in a new normal which is there are a lot of changes to follow from the rules implemented by the government .

I think so because i believe US economy is not easy to collapse even the caused of this pandemic. US is a rich country with smart leader knows how their country fight against any situation and problem. Maybe China think that this pandemic will cause a lot of damage to US and will become the way for the economy to collapse but they are wrong.

Even rich countries like U.S are affected by the pandemic which is the covid-19 because they also have a broken system, even though they are part of the 1st world countries; many people are suffering even if they have the best health facilities all over the world. There are a lot of small countries all over the world that beating the pandemic even though they are not part of 1st world countries like Vietnam. In that country, there are no community transmission in the past 3 months and they are now living normally again because they have good health system.

It is not that their economy is not easy to collapse,

They are still highly affected but despite all these obstacles, they still think of a solution to how they can recover from their falling economy. They prioritize it somehow to at least save their economy before it even completely falls.

The economy of USA doesn't seems to be recovering at the moment. American government have been trying lot many possible ways to recover from the hard economic burst. Particularly by this time it hasn't given much importance to the covid.

There will be sudden recovery if there happens a war between two countries. In specific if there happens war between India and China, America will supply weapons and through this trade it'll stabilize it's economy for sure.

I tend to agree with you, and I'm skeptical of graphs provided by mainstream media sources in order for them to make a point--and that's because most people 1) don't think critically about data, and 2) don't know how to read graphs, much less draw inferences from them.

On the other hand, assuming the data is accurate I'd say those charts at least point to some recovery in progress.  There's nothing in them to get all excited about, but at least it's some positive news.  The media tend to play on people's fears, ignorance, and anything else they can in order to keep them watching and reading.  Usually their entire output is doom-and-gloom, so a story that shows there might be a light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel is OK by me.

I wouldnt use the word recover just yet, its just more jobs then immediately prior.    I guess people always want to label things positively so as not to discourage any business confidence but its very challenged business atmosphere for most companies I think.   Saw this chart somewhere that puts it on scale vs jobs rate of 4 years ago, still a long way to go yet:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A4slj.png

They are trying to recover their country's economy but it will be possible very easily He says the United States has set a record in terms of employment About 22 million people lost their jobs in March and April as the lockdown continued due to the coronavirus epidemic. Some trade resumed in May And the re-employment of workers began  In that case the US economy will recover very soon.

I agree with your entire statement apart from the part that they have a "smart" leader because a smart leader would not have done what Trump did recently and calling out China in their face is a bold but poor decision as he was also trolled for calling corona-virus as Chinese-virus.

I certainly do agree that US being the most advanced and technology based nation they have the most advance technologies and certainly have a better plan than most Asian countries.

I don't think the charts shown are too great but at least they are on the right path to recovery and however small a recovery is, it still matters a lot because there is at least no going down from here.

But the article mentioned in OP actually shows that various factors like Home Purchases and Air travels have seen a hike and that actually indicates that the economy has at least stated to recover I think. But that said, it is hard to imagine after the BLM and covid-19 how they are suddenly improving the economy when there are so many protests and problems going on.


It's not as simple though because china is known to be a super power in terms of the weapon they have and having India as a face to fight against China might actually back fire for both India and US because there is never an over statement of how powerful China have grown in the years that have gone by and you can understand their economic mechanism that even after the corona virus they are now almost fully recovered.

As a trader, I look at those charts and think, "Was that the bottom? Or is this just a temporary bounce?"

V-bottoms are rare. I think what we saw in broad indices was the first part of a Livermore turn. Essentially, that's a would-be V-bottom that bleeds back down into a deep higher low, if not an outright retest of the bottom (or further).

I think we've already seen the reopening boost and growth is going to taper off again. Doesn't mean the markets will dump right away. That's still a question of sentiment and liquidity. But I do think the market has been over-optimistic about the recovery, not to mention riding on bullish retail investors, which leaves it wide open to a painful correction.

They are doing a great job for slowly resuming the establishment which can kick off their economy as well there are sporting events that are set to start off so provably they will slowly starting to heat up but I am curious right now on how they will sustain this since they still have the higher number of cases and the on I really hope is they learn from the experience and no intervention will come to execute the lock down since it will be a huge downfall for them if the case will happen.

I have a different opinion from the article in the opening post, I am not sure that US economy will recover quickly. That the US is still
a country with the highest spread of COVID-19. The number of businesses closed in the US is very large, and unemployment is high.
And state spending so much money on health equipment and state must help the poor and starving population. The US economy is in
a situation which is very bad, so in my opinion it must takes several years for recovery.

Trump can say whatever he want, but as of now I am skeptical whether there would be a rebound in the economy by September. A rebound may only occur if the pandemic can be contained. And under current circumstances, it is impossible to contain the pandemic unless a vaccine is made available. And all that is going to take a long time. And let's not forget the fact that the US federal debt is at a historical peak. That further reduces Trump's maneuvering space.

I don't think the economy is actually recovering I think however that the stock market is painting a bit of a false positive as it's been roaring back since it drastically fell in March/April. I think when quarter two reports come out, and we realize how many businesses are truly struggling or have gone out of business all together.

The economy might be recovering or might not be but the charts can be deceptive because let me try and explain the situation with the help of an example.

Suppose bitcoins price is going down from 9000 to 7000 and during the downfall there is a little hike. Imagine it went to 8000 and then grown to 8100 and then again went down to 7000 would you call the price is recovering? Absolutely no, because the overall impact is negative and the similarly the economy has gone down overall no matter if you show a few charts and they try and impose an image of improving economy.

Sometimes the false image is being created to attract investors and more industries to their country because no one wants to invest in a country where the economy is sliding down.

It is actually not recovering so "suddenly" because it is not recovering at all. You know what you are seeing? You are seeing the affects of a nation that is making the companies so rich that the poor people do not even matter in the economical sense.

Just because NASDAQ went up doesn't mean that nation is doing better as a whole, you could just pay all those companies tens of billions of dollars, even hundreds of billions of dollars and those companies will recover because you are paying them what they would have made already without even having to work for it and those companies go up in stock price. That makes it look like those companies are doing much better and that resembles a sense of "well if they are doing better the nation must be doing better to make them profit this much" feeling but in reality people are still unemployed and poor.

I wouldn't say that is recovering at all. At first US predicted they will not be so hit with pandemic, which was wrong, and that their economy will recover within few months, which was again wrong.
The fact is that people are still losing jobs and companies are struggling to survive, like in many other countries in the world. And to my opinion that is just the begininig of crisis and recovery is still far away.

Most of the countries that have been affected by the pandemic of COVID-19, including the US country that they are having a huge problem recovering their economy because most businesses shut down and employees lost their jobs due to community quarantine lockdown. It is the reason why a lot of people is struggling just to provide their necessities and pay their bills.

indeed there will be panic in dealing with things that are not expected at all and assume that time is something that will be easily overcome, so it is not prepared properly.
when all the panic had happened it was inevitable and enveloped all state institutions.

of course many will predict that difficulties will not be easily resolved quickly, but we know that as a big country, of course, have experience that can be done to follow up on what has happened with all the possibilities and a measurable and tested analysis to be able to cope with things like this.

although it might not be easy to overcome it immediately, but all can believe that as a big country there are certainly alternatives that can be done to immediately be resolved.

It surely can may take several years to recover completely. That's some sad news for all of us. But for a matter of fact I think that US govs decision to open cities and start working again is a good one.
Otherwise people would get sick anyway, but our resources would die so quickly without any liquidity on the market.
There were other options, but I don't think they were better

I think only HongKong is the certain country who treats this virus seriously when it strikes. They are the 1st country who immediately imposed travel ban from Wuhan, China when the first researchers found out that this is serious. The action of the government is really good and that is why they do not have any active cases today and they are living normal like before.

Most of the countries are still suffering because of the pandemic, I know that the business around the world especially the small businesses are still closed because of the pandemic. There are some that declared bankruptcy where they cannot operate anymore. Even 1st world countries are having hard time to survive in this pandemic so for sure that it will really take a long period of time for us to see the new normal.

Although the United States is recovering very quickly from the effects of the virus it will take some time for the economy to recover Many companies have shut down their businesses because other countries are still unable to cope with the effects of the virus. It will take time for the economy to recover if production and inflation do not slow down.

Us economy is being dominated by the Chinese economy from the last few months. Despite Us wanted to recover but there has some issues in their end for this pandemic and some recent issues. For this reason, they are still trying to recover and it a small part of making positive things to people.

Probably half fake. It's probably just to appease the masses about the current state of affairs of the US especially in this case where they have to do everything to make it seem like everything is okay. That, or just the info actually not really releasing any relevant info with regards to the economy. We may say that everything would return to normal since quarantine period is easing up and all of that, but the amount of businesses that could go back to a 100% can be counted in one's hands most likely.

And recovering is a too much of an optimistic period imo. It may have stopped dropping, but that's it. It hasn't recovered, but it also hasn't dropped more so than it already has. I expect the economy to actually below the average of the past years and that's already an optimistic view with regards to this years economy.

US economy is having a difficult time recovering their economy since the lockdown was implanted because thousands of people have temporarily stopped their jobs and businesses. Good thing that the US and other countries have lifted the lockdown because their economy is making a considerable downfall, so I think the US has stopped its economy from falling.

If you look at the data from CNBC COVID-19 positive cases in the US continues to grow to reach 3 million people, even on July 16 based on
John Hopkins data universities with the positive addition of COVID-19 throughout the US, around 71 thousand people. I doubt the US economy
will recover suddenly, according to an official of the Central Bank of America saying clearly that the recovery of the US economy will be slower
than expected. That is because the surge in COVID-19 infections across the United States continues to grow.

see conditions like making people worry. the economic impact of covid-19 will increase dramatically everywhere, the severity of the impact depends on how long the pandemic lasts ..
in a poor community where many individuals from various neighborhoods have to work day to day to be able to eat, the call for social isolation will be very difficult. In fact, it is impossible to obey, worldwide, when individuals lose their jobs. There should be an increase in homelessness and hunger

In the latest news ,US still a high record of covid possitive in just 24hours. I don't think that US country economy are now suddenly recovering although we know that every country implementing a new normal that can help the economy rise again and not to collapse totally. I still believed that US economy won't collapse easily. The Government will make sure that they will recover after this pandemic.

The charts are not so convincing because we know that the USA is experiencing the worst coronavirus pandemic. If at least the rates of infected people were lower than the current ones, these figures would be encouraging. But the USA is a strong and experienced nation that will achieve the desired economic recovery that will benefit all of us.

The economic impact of a pandemic will always be a lagging indicator. Obviously the US is still in the stage where infections are increasing... but even once the rate slows down, and all states are 100% re-opened, that doesn't mean that everything is suddenly back to normal from an economic perspective. The bailouts and the loss of business need to be paid for. Unemployment is likely to increase significantly. People are likely to have less money to spend, exacerbating the problem.

I think even once the pandemic is under control, it is far too early to be talking about the start of an economic recovery.

I think there could be two reasons behind this. One is some great policies framed by the existing government because they wanted to clean the slate before the US Election in coming November. There was immediate action upon policies to boost economy. Second is that everything could merely be framed. Fed might have ensured that there is enough money in the market until end of the year and once elections are done Economy would show it's real colors. Because no one can digest the fact that the world is under a complete lockdown and we haven't had another black Monday until now.