Is the US economy suddenly recovering?

[Juggy777]

It was obvious that in the long run we would have seen the US economy recover, but honestly I wasn’t expecting US economy to recover so fast, or is this just another false positive for us?. I’m referring to the article posted by CNBC where they have shown stats which proves that the US economy has started recovering despite many states yet being in lockdown. What are your thoughts on this, will the US economy recover faster than what we had anticipated?.

Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/here-are-five-charts-illustrating-the-us-economic-recovery-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

[jackg]

From this graphs, imo things didn't fall that much.... Other than the airlines who took a massive dip, everyone else doesn't look like they had too much of a problem. Hotel occupancy only fell by half for example.

The global economy was obviously going to recover pretty quickly after lockdowns were lifted and I think it'd still be doing quite well since california and San Francisco seemed to lockdown early and that's where a lot of the technological parts of the economy come into play afaict...

[o_e_l_e_o]

I'm not convinced any of those charts show the economy is recovering.

The first four graphs are all markers of lockdown being eased as opposed to economic recovery. Apple Maps directions, restaurant bookings, hotel bookings, are all a sign of restrictions being lifted and people being allowed out again, but they don't say an awful lot about the state of the economy. The last graph regarding mortgages shows a relative increase, but that is on the back of a huge decrease over the preceding few months. It's more likely a simple rebound from all the people who had been planning to take out mortgages in March/April/May finally being able to, as opposed to any actual growth in the market.

This all also assumes that these trends are going to continue. We are seeing further spikes in cases recently, escalating death rates, and several states talking about reimplementing various lockdown procedures. I would be very surprised if the economy recovers to any meaningful degree this year.

[BrewMaster]

this is part lie part reality. the drop itself was made bigger than it really was and it was partially because of panics. so it is natural for the world to resume itself after so many months and things have been starting to go back to normal again. of course the media is also exaggerating the recovery just like they exaggerated the doomsdays.

we should also not forget how much money US printed and injected in their economy to keep it afloat. it greatly negated the effects.

on top of all that US economy is being affected a lot by Chinese economy. the same way Chinese economy tanked then pulled US down, it has now been in recovery for about 10 days which should reflect on US economy too.

[mariaana]

It was obvious that in the long run we would have seen the US economy recover, but honestly I wasn’t expecting US economy to recover so fast, or is this just another false positive for us?. I’m referring to the article posted by CNBC where they have shown stats which proves that the US economy has started recovering despite many states yet being in lockdown. What are your thoughts on this, will the US economy recover faster than what we had anticipated?.
Source:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/here-are-five-charts-illustrating-the-us-economic-recovery-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

It didn't recover really, we still will experience aftermath of corona and quarantine effects on our economy.
However, temporarily we got rid of some of main problems, I wonder if it will worth it after all

[LogitechMouse]

They are in the process of recovering the economy but a "sudden" recovery isn't applicable here I think. It would be better if you didn't use the word suddenly as they are doing ways to recover the economy and they've started it already.

The decisions made by the government is quite risky since they are the epicenter of the virus already but they don't have any other choices but to do risky decisions for the sake of their economy. Also take note that they've printed too much money already and the increase in money supply in the US has increased greatly within the past 3 months (March to May) base on this site.

They maybe in the recovery phase but the virus case in their country will still increase and the trend doesn't seem to go downwards.

[Lucius]

What I see should not actually be called a real recovery, but only small positive developments in some sectors that have been most affected. I think it's insane to expect some sort of quick recovery to happen and for everything to go back to the previous numbers - because the recovery of a country the size of the USA is not something that depends only on them, but on the rest of the world as well. Of course, with the easing of measures, the economy is starting to recover, but we cannot measure it just by looking at how many people are staying in hotels or having dinner in restaurants, it is only a small part that makes up the overall recovery.

Given how the virus is behaving in Europe, we seem to have a second wave that is precisely the result of the easing or complete abolition of measures that have almost reduced the spread of the virus in some countries to zero. I believe that there will be no significant economic recovery anywhere in the world without finding an effective vaccine, because regardless of everything, the factor that affects the economy globally is fear and uncertainty.

[ReiMomo]

I don't believe in sudden recovery on their economy but I guess it takes months before they will fully be recovered.
Country of the US is the most well-stablished country and I don't have doubt they will recover soon but not quickly, just like country of China the world second-largest economy that next to the US but as we can see now, they had a little improvement that supposedly same goes to the US.

Follow this topic that only focuses on President Donald Trump, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/Donald-Trump. I don't see any related topics of sudden recovering of their economy maybe not now but for sure it will recover soon.

[BitcoinTurk]

I do not think that both the American economy and the world economy will recover in a fast or short term. Anyway, I just want to talk about my thoughts about the American economy without going too far. Although there is an inexhaustible demand for the US dollar, the FED printed an incredible amount of money in this pandemic process and I think that this printing issue will affect the economy in the long term. I think that it will seriously affect the American economy in many economic problems that will arise not only with these effects, but also due to the pandemic process, and that the American economy cannot recover in the short term period.

[Sanugarid]

From this graphs, imo things didn't fall that much.... Other than the airlines who took a massive dip, everyone else doesn't look like they had too much of a problem. Hotel occupancy only fell by half for example.

Travel related industries are the one who suffered the most, I saw a news from my country where the airline cut off the half of their employee since they can't handle the same number of staff during the pandemic. This goes the same with hotels, some tourist staying in a hotel were given extensions with lesser cost, this is the dilemma with businesses like this though it is very uncommon.

The global economy was obviously going to recover pretty quickly after lockdowns were lifted and I think it'd still be doing quite well since california and San Francisco seemed to lockdown early and that's where a lot of the technological parts of the economy come into play afaict...

Some quarantined area were lifted up, some had to make it enhanced quarantine especially when the cases is rising rapidly. In USA, even they have million of covid cases, I guess they are handling it wisely coz the America is great right? haha. The problem that we had the most is that we aren't prepared for anything to happen like this, Feng Shui didn't let us know about this one. ( just kidding )

[Gozie51]

The date rate in America is what makes it look like it had a fallen economy but in real physical terms, I'm not convinced on that. Also the lack of dollar demand during covid-19 lockdown contributed but now that lockdown is eased out, demand is rising and recovery is showing up too.

[plvbob0070]

Just a few days ago, the U.S. reached it's highest daily recorded cases of COVID with over 40,000 cases so we cannot say that they are suddenly recovering since they are still in the middle of fighting against the virus. The graph is more likely showing that businesses and the economy are starting to reopen again to recover what they have lost in the economy during the lockdown. So basically, it's like that they are still at the starting point.

But looking at the graph you provided, well, I guess it's a good sign for recovering. But if they failed to protect the people and handle the virus since they are already reopening businesses, I don't think their recovery phase will last longer. A lot of workers are still suffering from unexpected job losses due to the pandemic, and if it continues to increase, it may get worse.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Given how the virus is behaving in Europe, we seem to have a second wave that is precisely the result of the easing or complete abolition of measures that have almost reduced the spread of the virus in some countries to zero.

The governments and people of Europe are dealing with this virus incredibly more effectively than we are in the US. As you say, some countries which have eased lockdown restrictions too early have seen a surge of cases and had to reimpose lockdown. However, large areas of the US seem to have given up on lockdowns altogether. I also haven't seen any reports coming out of Europe comparable to the ones from around the US of thousands of people refusing to wear masks or refusing to comply with basic infection orevention measures.

Many countries saw their peak back in March and April, and have been on a steady downward trend since then. The US also saw a peak in April, and is now speeding headfirst in to a bigger peak (see graph below - click for full size). This second peak also becomes harder to combat than the first. Not just for the obvious reasons of hospitals being more overwhelmed than before, but because of "lockdown fatigue". People who are only just being allowed to leave lockdown, to go out, to socialize, etc., will be very unwilling to re-enter lockdown, and many will refuse.



It is far too early to start talking about economic recovery in the US in any meaningful sense. We haven't even hit the peak of the virus yet, and the Fed have already blown their load printing trillions of dollars out of thin air and dropping interest rates to zero.

[Harlot]

Short Answer: No

1.48 Million More Americans Applied for Unemployment Benefits Last Week

The ones given by the article is not really the major factors to consider that the economy is recovering it's not even how to spot if the economy is rising or not. From what I know the US has now a growing debt because of the pandemic as well as the massive protests happening US as of right now is a lot of things but one of it isn't really about their economy having a jump start at all.

[Latviand]

It was obvious that in the long run we would have seen the US economy recover, but honestly I wasn’t expecting US economy to recover so fast, or is this just another false positive for us?. I’m referring to the article posted by CNBC where they have shown stats which proves that the US economy has started recovering despite many states yet being in lockdown. What are your thoughts on this, will the US economy recover faster than what we had anticipated?.

Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/here-are-five-charts-illustrating-the-us-economic-recovery-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

I don't think so, there are countries which are also having a hard time recovering from economic crisis. Although US is a first world country, as there are also a huge cases in their territory, they will probably have a much harder economic recovery. Even China can't eliminate the virus in their country but their economy is stable, it is just because their products are still circulating globally.

US can do it, but I don't think that this is the time where they can recover their economy. Their government has a lot of sectors that should prioritize including the health sector, agricultural and especially the economy sector. If they want to recover from economic crisis, they should make a plan about opening some business safely.

[FanEagle]

It is not "suddenly recovering", it is just getting back outside which means there will be return obviously. Nobody could compare an economical situation where people stay at home for months to a situation where people are finally going outside.

Even though economy still sucks and even though there are still 13% unemployed numbers, even though many small business went out of business, and even though there are tons of other horrible stuff, the statistics will show an improvement only due to the fact that people are back outside and spending money again. This is why I think it is quite important to know the difference between "unrealistically horrible" to " very bad", when you see an improvement from one to another it may look like recovery but it is in fact not a recovery but an obvious change.

[Coyster]

In my country, after the government eased the lockdown to an extent where people could go out, markets and businesses could open and some other sectors, it passed a wrong message to our citizens that things are totally back to normal and the economy recovering, but after some weeks now, positive cases of Covid-19 increased and the government are forced again to shut down the states that are affected the most.

Imo it'll be like this for some time, there is prolly no economic recovery in sight at the moment, even in the US. In the long run some countries will recover faster than others, as they have always had a better economy and America is one of those countries, but for now with all the the talk of rising unemployment and recession, they still have a long way to go.

[Yamifoud]

I agree with you.
All of us had suffered big losses and even though US has a lot of resources but I can't think they can recover shortly. In fact, many experts say that the global economic status will be getting worse if the situation won't start to flatten. The more this virus spreads, the more it prolongs the recovery of the economy. It surely US will recover sooner (the same with the others) but not this time and not a good idea for them to fully resume business operations and lifestyle in order to make a huge recovery otherwise the crisis will still continue and it getting worse in their place.

[exstasie]

I'm not convinced any of those charts show the economy is recovering.

The first four graphs are all markers of lockdown being eased as opposed to economic recovery. Apple Maps directions, restaurant bookings, hotel bookings, are all a sign of restrictions being lifted and people being allowed out again, but they don't say an awful lot about the state of the economy. The last graph regarding mortgages shows a relative increase, but that is on the back of a huge decrease over the preceding few months. It's more likely a simple rebound from all the people who had been planning to take out mortgages in March/April/May finally being able to, as opposed to any actual growth in the market.

Completely agree. That article is grasping at straws. There was pent up demand in the real estate market after the lockdowns restricted the spring buying season. I'm not sure that mortgage applications recovering to previous levels says a whole lot about the big picture anyway.

Not much actual economic data here. I have a feeling Q2 numbers (company earnings, retail sales, unemployment) coming out next month will put a damper on some of this optimism.

All the Fed interventions are widening the chasm between the stock market and the actual economy. May unemployment at 16.3%, U-6 unemployment (adds discouraged and marginally attached workers, and those working part-time for economic reasons) almost hit 25%. The window to apply for PPP loans (the government program paying companies to keep workers on the payrolls) ends today, and the extended unemployment benefits are set to expire in July. Senate Republicans have indicated that provision won't be extended, at least at current levels.

Given that the virus seems to be getting worse across the country and businesses are already running at limited capacity, a swift recovery to pre-pandemic productivity and employment levels seems nearly impossible now. 15-20 million jobs are not going to be created overnight. And as stimulus provisions begin winding down, we may begin seeing more business failures that were previously being delayed by band-aids measures.

[Kasabus]

I agree with you.
All of us had suffered big losses and even though US has a lot of resources but I can't think they can recover shortly. In fact, many experts say that the global economic status will be getting worse if the situation won't start to flatten. The more this virus spreads, the more it prolongs the recovery of the economy. It surely US will recover sooner (the same with the others) but not this time and not a good idea for them to fully resume business operations and lifestyle in order to make a huge recovery otherwise the crisis will still continue and it getting worse in their place.

Not only US had suffered but the rest of the countries are totally affected by covid 19 pandemic. But since most of the lockdows are already lifted, people are starting going out and those who have still jobs to return are already working again. I am expecting this already that US economy will still recover but not as quick like this. Country might not even recover even a year after but i'm glad that things are starting to go back to its new normal.